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Old 04-22-2019, 01:50 PM
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NFL Draft Thread - 2019 Edition


We currently have an NFL Offseason Thread but I think with the Draft just 4 days away it's probably time to shift gears into draft mode. The Draft usually turns into something of a live discussion thread as it happens, so this thread can contain all that noise.

NFL Draft Times:
Round 1: Thursday, April 25, 8:00 p.m. ET
Rounds 2-3: Friday, April 26, 7:00 p.m. ET
Rounds 4-7: Saturday, April 27, 2:00 p.m. ET

Where to watch:
TV: ABC, ESPN (or ESPN2) and NFL Network
Stream: WatchESPN app, NFL Mobile app, or their respective websites

Some of the story lines so far:
  • Is Kyler Murray really going 1st overall?
  • Will the Cards really send Josh Rosen packing after 1 season?
  • Will the top 5 picks be dominated by defensive line?
  • DK Metcalf: Automatic Raider?
  • Drew Lock: Jay Cutler 2.0 or Kyle Boller 2.0 or Jeff George 2.0?
  • Will there be an early Tight End run?
  • How many 1st round QBs will there be?
  • Will the Giants finally replace Eli?
  • Will the Raiders come out of this draft looking smart for ditching all their good players last year?
  • Any draft day trades we should expect?

The Arizona Cardinals are on the clock....
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:34 PM
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Washington Redskins:

9 picks, 4 of them of the compensatory variety (not that it matters; they all spend the same). Picking 15th in the 1st round.

Most pressing needs:

QB - they are one of the "favorites" to trade for Josh Rosen, but personally I don't think that's going to happen. He's probably better than most, or even all of the QB prospects in this draft, but his rookie season was scary bad. I know, not 100% his fault, but it wasn't 100% not his fault, either. What they do vis-a-vis the QB position probably depends heavily on what happens in picks 1-14.

WR - they badly need a #1 receiver, but this team has repeatedly proven they couldn't draft a #1 receiver if Daniel Snyder's life depended on it.

OL/DL - they lack quality depth (who doesn't?).

LB - they need a pass-rushing OLB opposite Ryan Kerrigan, and someone better in the middle.


Really, they could use an upgrade at almost every position but those are the obvious holes.

Adrian Peterson did quite well last season, and they should be getting back their 2018 2nd round pick Derrius Guice coming off a torn ACL, but both could be considered unknown quantities going into this season. If Guice is still they player they drafted, the two (plus Chris Thompson) could make an interesting backfield combo.

Josh Norman and Landon Collins headline the defensive back corps, and there are some young guys behind them, but nothing proven.

Jordan Reed is a monster of a pass-catching TE but he's always injured and there's nothing behind him besides Vernon Davis, who's a year older than dirt (in NFL terms).
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
Where to watch:
TV: ABC, ESPN (or ESPN2) and NFL Network
Stream: WatchESPN app, NFL Mobile app, or their respective websites
ESPN will cover round 1 on Thursday, the first hour of round 2 on Friday, and all of rounds 4-7 on Saturday. ESPN2 will take over from ESPN at 8 Eastern on Friday to cover the rest of round 2 and all of round 3, as ESPN has an NBA playoff game at 8.

It appears that ABC will cover all seven rounds in their entirety. The version I heard was, ABC's coverage will be targeted more towards the "casual viewer" while ESPN's will be targeted at the traditional draft watchers.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:33 PM
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Washington Redskins:

9 picks, 4 of them of the compensatory variety (not that it matters; they all spend the same). Picking 15th in the 1st round.

Most pressing needs:

QB - they are one of the "favorites" to trade for Josh Rosen, but personally I don't think that's going to happen. He's probably better than most, or even all of the QB prospects in this draft, but his rookie season was scary bad. I know, not 100% his fault, but it wasn't 100% not his fault, either. What they do vis-a-vis the QB position probably depends heavily on what happens in picks 1-14.
Who is you preferred choice? Trade a 2nd rounder for Rosen? Draft a QB (maybe the 5th or 6th rated guy) in the 2nd round? Spend your 1st rounder on a guy? Murray and Haskins are probably gone by then, do you trade up? Do you take Lock, Finley or
Jones if they are there?
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:36 PM
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ESPN will cover round 1 on Thursday, the first hour of round 2 on Friday, and all of rounds 4-7 on Saturday. ESPN2 will take over from ESPN at 8 Eastern on Friday to cover the rest of round 2 and all of round 3, as ESPN has an NBA playoff game at 8.

It appears that ABC will cover all seven rounds in their entirety. The version I heard was, ABC's coverage will be targeted more towards the "casual viewer" while ESPN's will be targeted at the traditional draft watchers.
It'll be weird watching NFLN without Mayock. Haven't watched much of the pre-draft coverage so far so not sure who's going to the their go-to know-it-all this year.

I'm betting that ABC coverage is going to be too mind-numbingly stupid for most of us honks.
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Old 04-22-2019, 03:52 PM
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All I know is that the Seahawks will do something nobody expects. Except probably trade down multiple times for extra picks. They’re pretty lean this year after all the deals they did last season.
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
Who is you preferred choice? Trade a 2nd rounder for Rosen? Draft a QB (maybe the 5th or 6th rated guy) in the 2nd round? Spend your 1st rounder on a guy? Murray and Haskins are probably gone by then, do you trade up? Do you take Lock, Finley or
Jones if they are there?
For this team, with Jay Gruden's offense, I like Jones better than Lock. Jones is not very good out of the pocket, but he fits what Gruden wants to do, and they don't need a gunslinger to nickel and dime them down the field. Will Grier is an interesting prospect but will probably still be available in the 2nd or even 3rd round. None of the top QBs in this draft are very appealing to me, even Murray.

Trading up would be a mistake. This team is not a QB away from contending and they should know it, but they are also clearly incompetent and delusional about how bad they really are, and have been for decades.

If they can get Rosen for a 3rd, I'd take it, but no higher.

Again, they've repeatedly proven they can't draft a receiver for shit, so my board says basically, "Best player available that's not a QB or WR." This draft is top-heavy with pass rushers, and that's where I'd go. I think they have the makings of a good or better defense, and I think they should load up that side of the ball with as much fresh talent as they can, get back to a slow, plodding, pound-the-ball, clock-control offense and a dominant defense.
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:11 PM
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Bears Needs


So, this is a new and pleasant experience for me. The Bears are entering this draft with a shortage of picks, but what's more unfamiliar is that they are a really good team coming off a successful season with a mostly stacked roster and few pressing needs.

I've reacted to this turn of events by being more divorced from the pre-draft process than I have been in recent memory....I didn't even watch a second of the combine and probably couldn't name half the predicted first rounders this year. Weird.

But I can do a team needs.....so here we go.

Offense
QB - It's the Mitch Trubisky show for the foreseeable future. People will quibble over how good or bad he is, but he took us to the playoffs as a sophomore. He's a awesome weapon when he scrambles, and he does so without taking hits, and he's got all the tools. He needs more seasoning in Nagy's system since I think things were pretty vanilla for the most part last year, so we'll watch that closely. He needs to be productive when they aren't running a gimmick, but that's basically my assessment of the entire offense. They are running back the Chase Daniel/Tyler Bray combo to fill out the QB room. I'd love to get another rookie in the mix and shed some of the money we're spending on backups, but I get it.

RB - They traded Jordan Howard to the Eagles...a move I support. They added Mike Davis and Cordarrelle Patterson presumably to soak up his carries. They still have Cohen and might be viewing Ryan Nall as ready for a promotion. All in all, this group is a big question mark. I expect them to draft a RB with a middle round pick, but for the modern NFL maybe they choose to just stream FAs here until they find a guy they can live with.

WR - They invested big here least year bringing in Robinson and Gabriel and then drafting Miller. They also have Wims from the previous draft maybe ready for a promotion. The aforementioned Patterson may well get some significant reps at WR too. They also lost a couple core special teamers and depth guys in White and Bellamy. I wouldn't expect a lot of action here in the draft but if there's a BPA WR in the later rounds I'm sure they won't pass it up. I'm a bit less bullish on this group than I think Nagy and Pace are....hope I'm wrong.

TE - They cut some dead weight and a cleared a big cap hit by cutting Sims. Addition by subtraction. They retain Trey Burton and Adam Shaheen and are really hoping that both stay healthy for a change and make for a productive combo. Braunecker is there for depth. Another position that probably gets no attention in the draft unless they see a jumbo package guy or an H-back they love late.

OT - Leno and Massie will both return as starters, Massie with a nice extension. Leno is the better of the two, but both were really sound and the Bears had the lowest QB pressure rate in the league in 2018. They have to be satisfied here, but you always need OT depth. They have a couple options as the swing tackle, but if Pace sees a guy at the right spot who can play inside and outside he'll grab him for sure. The position's too important.

OG/C - Same as above really. Whitehair, Daniels and Long are all back, Long after restructuring his deal to free up some money. Long simply hasn't been able to stay healthy and it's a safe bet that his time is running short, but when this group is healthy it's one of the best in the league, Whitehair's snapping issues notwithstanding. Personally I'd love to swap Daniels and Whitehair but I'm sure the coaches know something I don't. They also have a couple experienced guys available for depth but I wouldn't be shocked to see Pace start shopping for Long's eventual replacement in this draft.

Defense and Special Teams to come shortly.
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:48 PM
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Bears Needs - Part 2


Defense
DL - I LOVE this group. Hicks is a monster who's still bizarrely underrated. Goldman is as rock solid as they come up the middle. Bilal Nichols really popped at times on the far side. I couldn't ask for more. Roy Robertson-Harris and Jonathan Bullard each have had productive stints starting and rotating in. You can never have enough depth here, but this group is flat out loaded. Still....if there's a potential stud, you can bet Pace won't pass on him.

LB/EDGE - I LOVE this group too, only slightly less than the DL group. Mack is Mack, what else needs to be said? Yeah he soaks up a lot of money, but the rest of the division is terrified of him. On the other side Floyd has underwhelmed because he simply hasn't added enough weight, his speed can be countered. He's solid but he's supposed to be scary opposite Mack. Lynch is the pass rush specialist and was very effective. They have a couple depth guys who are interesting and they cut Acho. In the middle Trevathan and Smith are maybe the best tandem of starters in the league already. No reason to expect Smith not to grow in year two. Depth is a bit of a concern and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pace picked a Edge with our first pick to light a fire under Floyd.

CB/S - This is the one bit of bad news for this team this offseason, we lost 2 key starters in Amos and Callahan to Free Agency. We signed Buster Skrine to replace Callahan and Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix to replace Amos. I view both as significant downgrades but new DC Chuck Pagano has a good track record coaching guys up. McManis comes back as the super-special-teamer and will get reps as a nickel and dime guy. On the corners we run it back with Amukamara and Fuller, both making a lot of money and both pretty good. I'm a bit less enthusiastic on both than most people around the team but they probably shouldn't be an area of concern so long as they are starting. Depth is where things get dicey. I would be surprised if Pace doesn't draft a CB to challenge Prince in camp and act as Skrine insurance.

K/P/LS - Our long nightmare that was Cody Parkey is thankfully over and in his place....we don't know. It's going to be an open competition. Mega-punt is back on a modest deal which is nice for stability, but he's been a bit underwhelming. With this defense we really need a guy who can pin teams inside the 10 more often. We resigned our LS but not after letting him twist in the wind for a bit, signalling that maybe they think there's a better option out there. I suspect that we'll not go looking for a new Kicker in the draft but I'm sure no one would question it if we did. It's clearly our biggest hole right now, but the success rate on drafting Ks isn't awesome. Personally, I think we should be able to make something work with UDFAs.

PR/KR - Between Cohen, Hill and Patterson I think the Bears are pretty well set here. I doubt they go hunting for a burner in the draft but with CB, WR and RB being likely targets having return experience could put a guy over the top. If anything our biggest worry last year was on the coverage side.

So that's it. To recap...
Key Needs: RB, EDGE, K
Depth Opportunities: WR, CB, OL, S
We're Set: DL, ILB, TE, QB

Last edited by Omniscient; 04-22-2019 at 04:52 PM.
  #10  
Old 04-23-2019, 10:04 AM
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Unlike last year when the Giants practically posted a billboard saying they were taking Saquon Barkley with their pick, the Giants have been disguising their intentions very well so far. They have 2 first round picks (6 and 17) but it's a mystery if they will go defense/defense, QB/defense, defense/QB, defense/OT,, get a WR to replace OBJ, or something off the wall like another 1st round TE. And that doesn't even take into account the possibility they could trade for Rosen.

Also unlike last year, they have 12 picks (vs. only five last year) so they have the draft capital for trades - in fact, they will almost certainly trade so they don't have to add 12 rookies.

It's anyone's guess which rookie QB they might favor. They have been linked to Haskins, Jones, and (more recently) Lock. But they could pass on all of them (and Rosen) and I wouldn't be surprised. They desperately need pass rushers, so I expect one (or both) of the first rounders to go towards that.
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Old 04-23-2019, 10:30 AM
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Gettleman will probably draft another RB.
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Old 04-23-2019, 10:36 AM
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Excellent breakdown, Omni.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
So, this is a new and pleasant experience for me. The Bears are entering this draft with a shortage of picks, but what's more unfamiliar is that they are a really good team coming off a successful season with a mostly stacked roster and few pressing needs.
Agreed and this is one of the things we haven't seen in quite a while as Bears fans. The one biggest need for the team right now is a competent kicker and after that, they could really just about go anywhere.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post

So that's it. To recap...
Key Needs: RB, EDGE, K
Depth Opportunities: WR, CB, OL, S
We're Set: DL, ILB, TE, QB
I'm not entirely convinced that the Bears are going with running back for their first pick. I think the backfield is going to be crowded with Davis, Cohen, Patterson, Mizzell (why is he still on the roster?), and Nall if he is ready to step up. I've also never been able to guess what the Bears (or any NFL team, really) will do with their draft selections, so what do I know.

You can never go wrong with Edge and they need depth at corner/safety so they may look at defense for their first picks. In any case, I think they will also be able to do best player available but they are also not picking until the third round because of the Mack as well as moving up to get Anthony Miller last year.

Bears Draft picks:

First Round: No Selection (Mack trade)
Second Round: No Selection (Miller trade)
Third Round: 87th overall
Fourth Round: 126th overall
Fifth Round: 162nd overall
Sixth Round: No Selection (Mack trade)
Seventh Round: 22nd overall, 238th overall
  #13  
Old 04-23-2019, 12:18 PM
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Gettleman will probably draft another RB.


BTW, I stand corrected: the Giants had six picks last year, not five.
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Old 04-23-2019, 02:50 PM
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I’ve, once again, been a bit remiss in my draft research, but that doesn’t stop me from offering my opinion at all. I checked the 2016 draft, and I think I was right on Deforest Buckner, Kevin Byard, Jourdan Lewis, Paxton Lynch, Christian Hackenberg, Braxton Miller, and Josh Doctson. I whiffed on Jeremy Cash, Zeke Elliot, Mike Thomas, and, although I’m still waiting for conclusive evidence, Carson Wentz. Such is life.

Here’s a general thought on this years draft:

There are a lot of QBs I don’t like. I like Murray, and to a lesser extent noodle armed Will Grier, but I think they’re the only two who might have a chance to succeed in the NFL. Dwayne Haskins might, but he’s nowhere near ready. Drew Lock might top out as a boring Jay Cutler, but isn’t worth a pick in the first couple rounds. I don’t understand the first round love Daniel Jones gets, he’s not accurate enough, he makes dumb mistakes, and checks down often. Maybe as a developmental QB. Tyree Jackson has the size and arm strength, but he too looks completely unready. I see Murray, then Grier (if you don’t want a huge vertical passing game) and a bunch of dart throws. If you’re desperate, take the last one of those guys left. Finley is just a game manager, and, having watched more than a few Wildcat games, I am stunned Thorson might be drafted. For me, it’s Murray in the first, Grier in the third, and then wait for Minshew to be there later.

There is, however, a lot of talent on the defensive lines. Which may lead to some players falling to the Packers. Which would make me very happy.



Here’s my annual lift of “my guys”. Much of my concerns are based on value, so they’re divided by round:


1st Round

Quinnen Williams, DI, Alabama. Well worth the top pick, any team passing on him to chase a QB will regret it.

Byron Murphy, CB, Washington. Should be great value at the back end of the 1st round, especially for DB desperate teams.

2nd Round

Elgton Jenkins, C, Mississippi - Solid player who doesn’t wow you physically, but could easily be your starting C for a decade.

Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State – See Elgton Jenkins. Except he’s a tackle.

3rd Round

JJ Arcega Whiteside, WR, Stanford. Redzone playmaker who plays faster than he times. 3rd round would be a steal.

Will Grier, QB, WV – Draft a QB every year. Grier was extremely productive and looks good running a college offense, but he may lack the arm strength and quick release to make it in the NFL. Grab him if you need a backup, or one of the Haskins/Jones/Lock/Jackson guys if they fall this far and you need high upside.

4th round

Max Scharping, OT, Northern Illinois. Small school prospect who has apparently risen up draft boards recently. Has the build and athleticism you like, but hasn’t shown it against talent.

Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn. I like big cornerbacks, and he fits the bill. But his injury history (extensive knee surgeries) make him a huge risk if taken earlier.

5th round

Gardner Minshew, QB, Washington State. Undersized at just 6’1”, he’s not going to wow anybody physically, but I like his accuracy, quick release, and timing. If he had a stronger arm, he’d go much, much higher. But, as I said, draft a QB every year.

6th round

Ben Burr Kirven, LB, Washinton – Is likely too physically small to play MLB in the NFL, but he may develop and should be a great special teams player. Worth a 6th rounder.

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford. Remember him? Tore up the league in 2017 and could have been a top pick, but went back to college, got injured, and has been falling ever since. I should probably move him up a couple rounds, but I think he’s a great player who has a chance to be a stud in the NFL.

7th Round

Hamp Cheevers, CB, Boston College. Another guy who may be too small for the NFL, but he’s aggressive and quick, so he could be your slot CB if he develops. Definitely worth a shot here.

Your guys:

Nick Bosa. On the field, he’s a top 10 pick. But I hate the guy, and he’s an injury risk. A Trumpist who has a very tenuous grip on reality, balky knees, and the entitled attitude of a extremely talented white football player, I hope he turns into a huge draft bust and I wouldn’t want him on my team. Ever.

Jaylon Ferguson, DE, LA Tech. Not seeing it. Watched the Florida Atlantic game and 2 of his credited 3 sacks were him being the closest guy to a falling QB. Kinda surprised he’s considered a second, yet alone first round talent.

Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State. Lots of comparisons to Brandon Marshall, but Butler made his bones breaking tackles of some of the worst defenses in college football. Has the strength/speed you like, but will have to learn the rest of it. He also drops too many balls like Marshall.

Andy Isabella, WR, U Mass. Fast, twitchy slot receiver with great speed and some moves, but only against iffy competition. I don’t understand the love he gets from PFF or some commentators. Remind me a quicker Anthony Miller.

DK Metcalf, WR, Mississippi. I can’t recall the possible #1 WR and first round pick ever being unable to even get to 600 yards receiving in college. Even Calvin Johnson put up 1000 yards in a run first offense in college. He’s a size/speed guy who coaches just drool over, but I want production, not topless photo models.

Jachai Politte, DE, Florida. A bit undersized, but amazing athlete, I worry about his mental stability and desire to put forth effort to become better. No thank you.

Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State. Another guy I don’t see as a first rounder. There are certainly things to like, like his build and quickness, but maybe in the 3rd round, not the first.

And, finally, my list of favorite names in the NFL draft this year:

Favorite names:
Rock Ya Sin
Jace Sternberger
Michael Jordan
Michael Jackson
Drew Sample
Ulysees Gilbert III
Taiwan Deal
Greedy Williams.

Last edited by Hamlet; 04-23-2019 at 02:54 PM.
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Old 04-23-2019, 03:26 PM
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Drew Sample
I nominate him as the NFL player most likely to cause confusion during drug testing.
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Old 04-23-2019, 03:44 PM
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I nominate him as the NFL player most likely to cause confusion during drug testing.
I picture an entire Who's on First skit.

Did you draw his sample?

Whose sample?

Drew Sample.

Whose sample?

Drew Sample.

I drew a sample, yes, but whose?

You drew the sample?

Of who?

Drew sample.
  #17  
Old 04-23-2019, 03:45 PM
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I'm not entirely convinced that the Bears are going with running back for their first pick. I think the backfield is going to be crowded with Davis, Cohen, Patterson, Mizzell (why is he still on the roster?), and Nall if he is ready to step up.
I suspect the Bears will carry 5 RBs. Last year it was Howard, Cohen, Mizzell, Cunningham and occasionally Burton at FB. This year it'll probably be Davis, Cohen, Patterson and Nall + Rookie TBD.

Obviously Patterson will do double duty as a WR which makes carrying 5 easier, and I'm assuming Mizzell is toast when cuts come down.

I agree that there's no reason to think they will go there with their first pick necessarily. If there's a RB who's BPA then probably, but I wasn't intending to imply RB was the most urgent need or would be the first position addressed.
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Old 04-24-2019, 08:51 AM
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Green Bay Packers

With 10 picks, including the 12th and 30th (thanks Saints!) in the first round, the Packers have a lot of options. Gutekunst has proven he's not afraid of trading picks, so I expect a lot of movement on draft day. If there is someone they like, they're not afraid to go get him.

The biggest needs I see with the Packers are offensive line, linebacker, and safety. Edge rushers and wide receivers are always in the mix, and they need a young playmaking TE to develop. They have pretty good depth elsewhere, what they really need is playmakers.

I see a lot of mocks having the Packers using their first pick on a TE, and I am so not a fan. Sure it's a position of need, but TE isn't usually a game changing position, and none of the TE's in this draft strike me as a generational player. Skip the TE at 12, and pick up either Fant or Hockenson at either 30 or in the second round. I'd much rather a impact defensive player like Devin White, Tillery, or Oliver.
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Old 04-24-2019, 09:06 AM
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Seahawks trade DE Frank Clark to the Chiefs. They get a first round pick this year, trade third round picks this year, and get a second round pick next year.

I’m sad that Clark is gone, because he’s an awesome pass rusher and the Seahawks need more of that. But they also need more picks (they only had 4 this year, fewest in the league) and Frank was threatening to hold out if he didn’t get a huge long-term deal from Seattle. So they got something they need and gave up a problem.

Kansas City got a really good but expensive pass rusher. They seem to be in a “now or never” mode this year.
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Old 04-24-2019, 12:44 PM
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Seahawks trade DE Frank Clark to the Chiefs. They get a first round pick this year, trade third round picks this year, and get a second round pick next year.

Iím sad that Clark is gone, because heís an awesome pass rusher and the Seahawks need more of that. But they also need more picks (they only had 4 this year, fewest in the league) and Frank was threatening to hold out if he didnít get a huge long-term deal from Seattle. So they got something they need and gave up a problem.

Kansas City got a really good but expensive pass rusher. They seem to be in a ďnow or neverĒ mode this year.
Kansas City gave up more for Clark and the Bears did for Mack. Let that soak in.
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Old 04-24-2019, 02:26 PM
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Kansas City gave up more for Clark and the Bears did for Mack. Let that soak in.
I thought the Bears gave up two first round picks (2019 and 2020), swapped a third for a second round in 2020, and traded a fifth for a sixth (with a year difference). Chiefs gave up one first round pick and a second next year (and swapped 3rds). Not sure how that is more.
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Old 04-24-2019, 03:51 PM
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This will be the first season in a while where the Browns aren't going to be the stars of the draft show. I suppose that's a good sign.

We got our first round pick a month early.
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Old 04-24-2019, 04:22 PM
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I thought the Bears gave up two first round picks (2019 and 2020), swapped a third for a second round in 2020, and traded a fifth for a sixth (with a year difference). Chiefs gave up one first round pick and a second next year (and swapped 3rds). Not sure how that is more.
Bears exchanged:
Future (2019) 1st (24th overall)
Future (2019) 6th (196 overall)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (1st rounder for a 2nd rounder, projecting -15 spots)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (6th rounder for a 5th rounder, projecting +15 spots)

Chiefs exchanged:
2019 1st (29th overall)
2019 Pick Swap (3rd rounders, -8 spots)
Future (2020) 2nd (value TBD)

In the old school thinking, the future picks are worth 1 round less than current year picks. Not sure that math really holds up, but they are absolutely less valuable pick for pick.

Even if ignore the "free" year of Mack the Bears got and we call the 2019 1sts a wash, the Bears 2020 pick swap is significantly less costly than giving up a 2020 2nd rounder outright. The Bears gain back some value on the other 2020 pick swap.

The Chiefs trading down 8 spots in the 2019 3rd round is probably equivalent to the Bears 2019 6th (bet we see a trade close to that during the draft).

There's some variability here I suppose, if by some stretch the Bears finish in the bottom 5 and the Raiders finish in the top 10, then that 2020 pick swap is actually way more costly, but right now that's pretty unlikely.

Last edited by Omniscient; 04-24-2019 at 04:27 PM.
  #24  
Old 04-24-2019, 04:35 PM
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Here's another way to frame it visually.

Bears Cost vs. Chiefs Cost
Future (2019) 1st (24th overall) < 2019 1st (29th overall)
Future (2019) 6th (196 overall) = 2019 Pick Swap (3rd rounders, -8 spots)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (1st rounder for a 2nd rounder, projecting -15 spots) < Future (2020) 2nd (TBD overall)
Future (2020) 3rd > Nothing
Future (2020) Pick Swap (6th rounder for a 5th rounder, projecting +15 spots) < Nothing


Edit: Just realized I forgot the Bears gave an extra 2020 3rd rounder. So if you ignore the "Future" pick penalty then the argument breaks down.

Last edited by Omniscient; 04-24-2019 at 04:38 PM.
  #25  
Old 04-24-2019, 08:42 PM
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This will be the first season in a while where the Browns aren't going to be the stars of the draft show. I suppose that's a good sign.

We got our first round pick a month early.
I expect the Browns in the playoffs this year. Mark my words, theyíre gonna be good.
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Old 04-24-2019, 10:15 PM
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Bears exchanged:
Future (2019) 1st (24th overall)
Future (2019) 6th (196 overall)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (1st rounder for a 2nd rounder, projecting -15 spots)
Future (2020) Pick Swap (6th rounder for a 5th rounder, projecting +15 spots)

Chiefs exchanged:
2019 1st (29th overall)
2019 Pick Swap (3rd rounders, -8 spots)
Future (2020) 2nd (value TBD)

In the old school thinking, the future picks are worth 1 round less than current year picks. Not sure that math really holds up, but they are absolutely less valuable pick for pick.

Even if ignore the "free" year of Mack the Bears got and we call the 2019 1sts a wash, the Bears 2020 pick swap is significantly less costly than giving up a 2020 2nd rounder outright. The Bears gain back some value on the other 2020 pick swap.

The Chiefs trading down 8 spots in the 2019 3rd round is probably equivalent to the Bears 2019 6th (bet we see a trade close to that during the draft).

There's some variability here I suppose, if by some stretch the Bears finish in the bottom 5 and the Raiders finish in the top 10, then that 2020 pick swap is actually way more costly, but right now that's pretty unlikely.
I'm not invested in this issue much at all, but I'm a bit ... surprised? ... at the mental gymnastics you go through to justify this thinking. Draft picks in the next draft to occur (made in September) are somehow less valuable than draft picks to occur in the next draft (made in April, before the next draft) is odd to me. I get that the return (having the player for the season) is better (which completely ignores the salary issue, but whatever), but the cost is the same.

Again, I'm not invested, but it strikes me that you're trying really hard to make an untenable point.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:14 PM
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Mental gymnastics? I didn’t invent the concept of future picks being less valuable.

When was the last time you saw a team trade this year’s first round pick straight up for next year’s first round pick? If they are equal, teams would.

Typically you have to throw in a 2nd rounder for the pleasure of accelerating a 1st round pick by a year. But whatever.
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Old 04-25-2019, 01:48 AM
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I'm not invested in this issue much at all, but I'm a bit ... surprised? ... at the mental gymnastics you go through to justify this thinking. Draft picks in the next draft to occur (made in September) are somehow less valuable than draft picks to occur in the next draft (made in April, before the next draft) is odd to me. I get that the return (having the player for the season) is better (which completely ignores the salary issue, but whatever), but the cost is the same.
Itís pretty simple. Think of it this way.

Letís say itís coming up on draft time, and you have a star running back that another team really wants; heís a proven veteran that fits their scheme and theyíre willing to give a lot for him. You negotiate and decide heís worth a first round and second round pick. You now have a lousy run game. If you got those picks for this year, you can draft the best running back in the first round and maybe a solid one in the third you can develop or to add depth.

If those picks are for next year... Whoops. You have to go a whole year without a decent RB. Or spend an existing pick and maybe give up that pass rusher you could have used. It sure would be nice if those picks were for this year.

Another reason why picks for the current season are more valuable... You know now what you need and whoís in the draft. You know how useful those picks are. You have no idea how useful a pick will be next year. Maybe youíll need a QB and everyone after the first round sucks, and so a second round draft pick next year wonít help much. And so on. Itís better to buy the pig you see than buy the one in a poke, and find out later there was a cat in that bag all along.
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Old 04-25-2019, 01:54 AM
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Forgot to add this and the edit window closed...

You also know when each team is picking this year, you won’t know next year. That first round pick next year might be the first pick or the 30th. That makes it even more of a gamble.
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Old 04-25-2019, 06:48 AM
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Mental gymnastics? I didn’t invent the concept of future picks being less valuable.
Yeah, I get that concept. Have for awhile, thanks.

The new concept you're bringing up is that somehow acquiring a draft pick in September for the next draft is more valuable than acquiring a draft pick in April for the very next draft. That's what you are trying to show, and I'm just not seeing it.

The Bears, in September traded a first round draft pick to the very next draft to be held. Seattle, in April (before the next draft) did the same. Pretty even. The Bears threw in a 6th rounder in the next draft to be held, while Seattle swapped 3rds pick (which is moving up from 92 to 84), seems pretty comparable too.

But then the Bears threw in a first round pick and a third round pick in the 2nd next draft, and got back a 2nd rounder and a fifth, while Seattle gave up a second round pick in the 2nd next draft. Now, to me, it seems that the Bears gave up more for than the Chiefs for that draft.

YMMV, of course. But this idea that somehow a draft pick for the next draft is more valuable in September than April just doesn't work for me. Sure the benefit is a bit more because you have the year with him (although that benefit is offset because now you're the team making him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL), but the cost doesn't change.

Last edited by Hamlet; 04-25-2019 at 06:53 AM.
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Old 04-25-2019, 06:51 AM
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It’s pretty simple. Think of it this way.

Let’s say it’s coming up on draft time, and you have a star running back that another team really wants; he’s a proven veteran that fits their scheme and they’re willing to give a lot for him. You negotiate and decide he’s worth a first round and second round pick. You now have a lousy run game. If you got those picks for this year, you can draft the best running back in the first round and maybe a solid one in the third you can develop or to add depth.
That's not what is happening. Both trades were for the same next draft to be held and the one after that. The only difference is that some were acquired in September, while some were in April. Maybe don't think of it as "next year's draft" when it's actually "the next draft to be held".

Last edited by Hamlet; 04-25-2019 at 06:54 AM.
  #32  
Old 04-25-2019, 07:44 AM
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Grant Paulsen (DC area radio host and sports reporter) tweeted yesterday a rumor that Dan Snyder has taken over the war room and is trying to move into the top 5. This is bad. This is really bad. This QB class is NOT worth moving up even a couple of spots for. Hopefully if they move up it's at least for Bosa or Quinnen Williams or Josh Allen, but we all know it's not.

(well, granted, this is probably really good if you're the 49ers, Jets, Raiders, or Bucs, or even Arizona, but this is extremely bad for the Redskins)
  #33  
Old 04-25-2019, 08:56 AM
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That's not what is happening. Both trades were for the same next draft to be held and the one after that. The only difference is that some were acquired in September, while some were in April. Maybe don't think of it as "next year's draft" when it's actually "the next draft to be held".
Again, in April you know what draft picks are worth and what your needs will be. In September you don’t. You also don’t know in September where a particular draft pick is going to fall, in April you do. Acquiring picks with known values is inherently more valuable than getting unknown picks.

Last edited by Atamasama; 04-25-2019 at 08:56 AM.
  #34  
Old 04-25-2019, 09:24 AM
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Again, in April you know what draft picks are worth and what your needs will be. In September you don’t.
What your specific team needs doesnt change the value of the pick. If you think, "hey, our team needs a TE" in September does absolutely nothing to effect the value of the draft pick when you make it in April.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Atamasama
You also don’t know in September where a particular draft pick is going to fall, in April you do. Acquiring picks with known values is inherently more valuable than getting unknown picks.
Sure, but it can go both ways. If I had to choose between having a pick I think will be in the 10-20 range and pick 16, I wouldn't mind rolling the dice. There is value in surety, but is that surety really worth the value the Bears gave up? Not even close for me.

Last edited by Hamlet; 04-25-2019 at 09:25 AM.
  #35  
Old 04-25-2019, 09:27 AM
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Drew Sample

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I nominate him as the NFL player most likely to cause confusion during drug testing.
I nominate Greedy Williams to inspire the worst puns after an interception.
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Old 04-25-2019, 07:32 PM
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That's not what is happening. Both trades were for the same next draft to be held and the one after that. The only difference is that some were acquired in September, while some were in April. Maybe don't think of it as "next year's draft" when it's actually "the next draft to be held".
They were for the same draft, but there was a whole NFL season in between. Thatís kinda the important detail you seem to conveniently be ignoring.
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Old 04-25-2019, 07:38 PM
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They were for the same draft, but there was a whole NFL season in between. Thatís kinda the important detail you seem to conveniently be ignoring.
That was pretty much the point of my last comment, I also explained why an entire playing season makes a difference. But whatever, you canít change minds.
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Old 04-25-2019, 07:39 PM
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Already on the record for knocking Murray. The Cardinals just lit their franchise on fire for a decade.
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Old 04-25-2019, 07:48 PM
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Already on the record for knocking Murray. The Cardinals just lit their franchise on fire for a decade.
Maybe they can use the first pick in next yearís draft to pick the next franchise QB.
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Old 04-25-2019, 07:48 PM
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Already on the record for knocking Murray. The Cardinals just lit their franchise on fire for a decade.
Let's revisit this mid-season (provided Murray starts, assuming he will). I happen to think he's going to be productive, even in that woeful offense at Arizona.
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:11 PM
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Jags got to be thrilled getting Josh Allen at 7.

Meanwhile, as a Jets fan, I’m just crossing my fingers they don’t trade Quinnen Williams for Josh Rosen or something equally Jets-y.
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:13 PM
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Jags got to be thrilled getting Josh Allen at 7.
That was a steal. Good on them for capitalizing on that opportunity.
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:13 PM
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The Packers looooooove trading picks, so if no one picks Haskins (lookin at you Denver) watch for them to switch with Washington so they can steal him from Miami
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  #44  
Old 04-25-2019, 08:30 PM
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What in the fresh hell is he wearing
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:45 PM
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What in the fresh hell is he wearing
Very strange. Everyone here thought he was wearing a sling at first.

Also, most people seem to think the Packers reached for Gary so that makes me happy. The Lions took another top 10 TE, which could also have hilarious results.
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:51 PM
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Very strange. Everyone here thought he was wearing a sling at first.

Also, most people seem to think the Packers reached for Gary so that makes me happy. The Lions took another top 10 TE, which could also have hilarious results.
Well we have a defensive guru (supposedly) as a coach, so if LeFleur thinks he can mold Gary as a good player...who knows.
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:52 PM
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A little late here, but I'm so happy and relieved with the 49ers' selection of Nick Bosa. Williams would have been fine, but a trade out would have been very stressful. Bosa is gonna be a star that makes the whole defense better.
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Old 04-25-2019, 08:54 PM
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Calling Gary as a bust right now.
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  #49  
Old 04-25-2019, 09:00 PM
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Well we have a defensive guru (supposedly) as a coach, so if LeFleur thinks he can mold Gary as a good player...who knows.
Thatís exactly what you love in a top 12 pick.

Last edited by Omniscient; 04-25-2019 at 09:00 PM.
  #50  
Old 04-25-2019, 09:12 PM
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They were for the same draft, but there was a whole NFL season in between. Thatís kinda the important detail you seem to conveniently be ignoring.
By ignoring, you mean when I dealt with it directly by saying: "I get that the return (having the player for the season) is better (which completely ignores the salary issue, but whatever), but the cost is the same." and "Sure the benefit is a bit more because you have the year with him (although that benefit is offset because now you're the team making him the highest paid defensive player in the NFL), but the cost doesn't change." Right? Right?
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