Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-31-2020, 12:32 PM
truthseeker3 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 127

Which primary is better for getting rid of a disliked incumbent?


Suppose there is an incumbent you really want out of office. Suppose further that you have a chance to vote in Party A's primary or Party B's primary (but not both), and the incumbent is in Party A. Which primary should you pick?
  #2  
Old 01-31-2020, 12:45 PM
k9bfriender is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 11,952
Quote:
Originally Posted by truthseeker3 View Post
Suppose there is an incumbent you really want out of office. Suppose further that you have a chance to vote in Party A's primary or Party B's primary (but not both), and the incumbent is in Party A. Which primary should you pick?
Your hypothetical doesn't have enough information for a full answer. The simple answer is that voting in party A's primary would be beneficial, as if the incumbent doesn't get nominated, then you have succeeded in blocking them, however, while incumbents enjoy a very high reelection chance, their chances of being nominated are even higher.

Now, if party B has a knife edge of nominating a candidate that you think would do better in the general, then that changes things. You may have a situation where a substantial part of party B likes a particular candidate that has little chance of winning the general, while another, more centrist candidate has somewhat less support among the party, but stands a much higher chance of pulling people across the aisle and winning in the general.

As with most things, there is no easy answer, and it depends heavily on context and nuance of the situation.
  #3  
Old 01-31-2020, 08:23 PM
truthseeker3 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 127
Well... I'm not sure I want to say this, but I might be thinking about a specific, *VERY* well-known incumbent - someone whose name alone can cause a thread to get ugly fast.

(Yes, I'm talking about Voldemort.)
  #4  
Old 01-31-2020, 08:30 PM
Little Nemo is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Western New York
Posts: 86,417
It's an issue of whether or not you support tactical voting.

If you don't, your choice is easy; vote for the candidate you most like in whichever primary they are running in.

If you are seeking to do some tactical voting, where you vote will depend on the particular circumstances of the election. Does the incumbent you dislike have a credible challenger in the Party A primary who might defeat them? Is there a candidate in Party B who you feel will have a better chance than the other Party B candidates of beating the incumbent in the general election?
  #5  
Old 01-31-2020, 09:20 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 13,302
Most of the incapable candidates will be disposed of by the end of February. Warren and Buttigieg will hang around, but won't be viable
  #6  
Old 02-03-2020, 12:42 PM
truthseeker3 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 127
It looks like many states are cancelling their Republican primaries, so the question is probably moot (I haven't checked my state yet), but I appreciate the input - thanks!
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:10 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017