Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-06-2019, 10:38 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573

TdF2019


C'est Le Tour!

Exciting finish and no-one seemed more surprised by the result than Peter Sagan. The look over his left shoulder was priceless.

I miss Paul Sherwen. Don't quite know what to make of Chris Horner. I'm sure he'll get better as the tour goes on.

That 3D sprint finish model was stupid, IMO.

Anybody surprised or disappointed that Mark Cavendish was left off the team?
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #2  
Old 07-06-2019, 12:19 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Pretty sure Cav is both surprised and disappointed.

He's had a rough couple of years, and it's a bit sad that he can't take a run at Merckx's Tour stage victory record, but it's quite likely that he would have done nothing of note anyways. His form in the races leading up to the Tour has been poor.

I've got no idea who to view as the favourite in this race with Froome and Dumoulin both out. G is defending champ, but it's not at all clear he has any form coming in. Bernal is the heir apparent at Ineos/Sky, just won the Criterium Du Dauphine, and appears to be the man to beat in the mountains but this is only his second grand tour. Nibali is unlikely to have the form required after racing the Giro. Will Quintana finally live up to the hype? Can Porte make it through a grand tour as team leader without crashing out? Or will someone unexpected come through from a group of podium contenders no one thinks can actually win, like Fuglsang, Pinot, or Bardet?
  #3  
Old 07-06-2019, 02:08 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Agreed. I hope that's the thing that will make this year exciting. The unpredictability of the outcome. I'd like to drop Dan Martin's name into the hat as well. He's can always be counted on for heroic feats. Also pleased to see Alexandro Valverde still in it. I always root for him.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #4  
Old 07-06-2019, 02:50 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
The problem for Valverde is Movistar's three-headed strategy. I think Landa is more likely to become the leader of leaders on Movistar than Valverde is, and of course they'll protect Quintana ahead of the other two so long as it looks like he has any chance at all. Dan Martin is a good call to add to my list of outside contenders.
  #5  
Old 07-06-2019, 03:13 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Oh, I'm not thinking Valverde to win, place or show. Though that would certainly be nice. He is the consummate teammate willing to sacrifice himself for the leader. I'd just like to see him ride away on a flatter stage and stay away to win for a change. He can't have many more years in him.

I heard the reason Cav wasn't selected was because the team owner didn't think he'd make it past stage 6. I assume they don't think he'd make the time limit in a mountain stage.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #6  
Old 07-07-2019, 09:51 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Yellow gives you wings. Well done.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #7  
Old 07-07-2019, 03:59 PM
Robot Arm is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Medford, MA
Posts: 23,470
In the team time trial today, I kept hearing that the fourth rider stopped the clock for the whole team. Does that apply to the riders that have been dropped along the way, too? If the holder of the yellow jersey had eased up before the end, and four of his teammates had finished 30 seconds ahead of him, does he get the same time as the rest of his team? If not, why didn't he (and the other GC contenders) ease up in the TTT and save their energy; is it one of those "you must defend the yellow jersey with honor" kind of things?

And I know that other stages have a cutoff time that riders must meet or be excluded from the rest of the Tour. Is that true in the team time trial as well; do riders who are dropped by their teams still have to finish the course, and within some percentage of the stage winners?
  #8  
Old 07-07-2019, 06:25 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuickSilver View Post
Yellow gives you wings. Well done.
I would say rather, "Riding behind Tony Martin gives you wings."
  #9  
Old 07-07-2019, 06:34 PM
running coach's Avatar
running coach is offline
Arms of Steel, Leg of Jello
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Riding my handcycle
Posts: 37,144
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robot Arm View Post
In the team time trial today, I kept hearing that the fourth rider stopped the clock for the whole team. Does that apply to the riders that have been dropped along the way, too? If the holder of the yellow jersey had eased up before the end, and four of his teammates had finished 30 seconds ahead of him, does he get the same time as the rest of his team? If not, why didn't he (and the other GC contenders) ease up in the TTT and save their energy; is it one of those "you must defend the yellow jersey with honor" kind of things?

And I know that other stages have a cutoff time that riders must meet or be excluded from the rest of the Tour. Is that true in the team time trial as well; do riders who are dropped by their teams still have to finish the course, and within some percentage of the stage winners?
From Wiki Team Time Trial
Quote:
Where a TTT is part of a stage race, it is necessary for each rider to be given a finish time that can be cumulated into the general classification timings. Hence, all riders in the team who finish in the leading bunch are given the time of the fourth rider, and any rider who has been dropped is timed individually in the usual way.
  #10  
Old 07-07-2019, 06:36 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robot Arm View Post
In the team time trial today, I kept hearing that the fourth rider stopped the clock for the whole team. Does that apply to the riders that have been dropped along the way, too? If the holder of the yellow jersey had eased up before the end, and four of his teammates had finished 30 seconds ahead of him, does he get the same time as the rest of his team? If not, why didn't he (and the other GC contenders) ease up in the TTT and save their energy; is it one of those "you must defend the yellow jersey with honor" kind of things?

And I know that other stages have a cutoff time that riders must meet or be excluded from the rest of the Tour. Is that true in the team time trial as well; do riders who are dropped by their teams still have to finish the course, and within some percentage of the stage winners?
If your team drops you, you get your time not the team's time. I would imagine that there's a cutoff time for a TTT stage, but I'm not at all up on how they calculate those.
  #11  
Old 07-08-2019, 06:01 AM
N9IWP is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Southeast MN
Posts: 6,276
Stage 19 looks "fun" (I like MT stages). https://www.letour.fr/en/stage-19 I'll have to study them all to see if it is the toughest.

Brian
  #12  
Old 07-08-2019, 08:01 AM
Telemark's Avatar
Telemark is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Yet again, Titletown
Posts: 22,767
My wife and I will be at stage 20, we're staying in Val Thorens. We'll actually be there the day of stage 19 as well but not sure if we can find our way over to the course, maybe via mountain bikes?
  #13  
Old 07-08-2019, 02:25 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Please don't embarrass us. Dress normal and don't go running beside the riders. Just be
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #14  
Old 07-10-2019, 11:06 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Stage 4 was a bit of a snooze fest. However, it's becoming a bit obvious that Sagan is losing his edge.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #15  
Old 07-10-2019, 11:14 AM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
There are about 190 riders in the peleton who would just love to lose their edge if it would mean finishing positions of 2nd, 5th, 4th, and 1st in the first 4 road stages of the Tour de France.
  #16  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:47 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Perhaps that merits a slightly less flippant response. I presume you're referring to Sagan finishing 4th behind Viviani, Kristoff, and Ewan on Stage 4. It's undeniable that Sagan has had a relatively crappy season thus far, producing absolutely nothing in the spring classics outside of Milan-San Remo (4th) and Paris-Roubaix (5th). However, the truth is that he's almost never won over top sprinters, at the Tour or anywhere else, with a few notable exceptions I'll get to in due course. Nearly all his Tour stage wins are from reduced sprints on stages where the top sprinters have been dropped on climbs before the line. Indeed, if we look at a list of the guys who've finished second to Sagan - Cancellara, Boasson Hagen, Greipel, Degenkolb, Alaphilippe, Froome, Kristoff (twice), Matthews, Colbrelli (twice) and now Van Aert, it's mostly a who's who of guys who win sprints on stages too tough for the real sprinters.

Froome doesn't belong in that group of course - he's there because of Stage 11 in 2016, when Sagan forced a break with Bodnar in the crosswinds, and Froome and Thomas joined them to make a foursome dashing to the line ahead of a very angry peleton in one of my favourite Tour finishes of all time.

The only time Sagan has won a stage over the dominant sprinters in a given tour was when he beat Griepel 2012 Stage 6, but even that was a reduced peleton after a crash held up half the peleton including Cavendish. The only other time I can think of where Sagan has beaten a top sprinter in a top level event was his second World Championship over Cavendish in Dubai, where Cav was briefly boxed in and still almost caught Sagan. I guess you could also count Kristoff and Colbrelli, but that only adds the the third Worlds in Bergen, 2016 Tour Stage 16, and his three wins last year. Last year was probably his best sprinting form ever, but he still didn't beat Gaviria or Groenewegen, just Kristoff and Colbrelli.

I don't think you can say Sagan's lost his edge based on the Tour so far. You'd have to make your case based on the spring campaign, as his Tour results are on par with his previous Tour performances.
  #17  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:51 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Good point on the follow up post. He still has the green jersey and ahead by a lot in points. But I doubt he's saving it up for the mountain stages.

Interesting that they had Lance Armstrong on NBC Sports as a contributor. Anybody watching his WEDU channel on YouTube?
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.

Last edited by QuickSilver; 07-10-2019 at 01:56 PM.
  #18  
Old 07-10-2019, 02:23 PM
Telemark's Avatar
Telemark is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Yet again, Titletown
Posts: 22,767
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuickSilver View Post
Please don't embarrass us. Dress normal and don't go running beside the riders. Just be
But I just had my Cthulhu suit cleaned and pressed!
  #19  
Old 07-10-2019, 04:20 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Telemark View Post
But I just had my Cthulhu suit cleaned and pressed!
You'll fit right in, so long as you're standing next to Didi.
  #20  
Old 07-11-2019, 06:42 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Looks like I should have had more faith in Peter. I'll just shut up and watch the race.

Really looking forward to today.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #21  
Old 07-11-2019, 10:04 AM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Going to be some selection on the Planche des Belles Filles - that new finish looks absolutely savage.
  #22  
Old 07-11-2019, 11:58 AM
drm is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Canada
Posts: 4,434
The death of Geraint Thomas was greatly exaggerated. It looks like he will be strong this year. Pinot looked good and finished strong over the top. If he can avoid his one bad day, he could be a factor as he can kinda time trial.

Iím super excited for the really high mountains.
  #23  
Old 07-11-2019, 12:34 PM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Quote:
Originally Posted by drm View Post
The death of Geraint Thomas was greatly exaggerated. It looks like he will be strong this year. Pinot looked good and finished strong over the top. If he can avoid his one bad day, he could be a factor as he can kinda time trial.

Iím super excited for the really high mountains.
Must admit I'm not a great believer in Thomas (think last year was the one where the stars aligned for him, he's too nice, and he's not burning with desire to win another GT) but he made a statement there. Looked the class of the field on what was a vicious final few k.
  #24  
Old 07-12-2019, 09:19 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Was it Bardet who got his front wheel to the finish line and then had a mechanical and looked as if he'd lost the will to finish the race? Brutal.

Was cool to see Valverde doing yeoman's work on the climb for NQ.

TJ is having a rough day of it today.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #25  
Old 07-13-2019, 11:16 AM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Wow. That was a brilliant finale to a stage. The profile wasn't all that promising - minor mountain/hilly stage with a bunch of 2nd and 3rd cat climbs and a flat finish. Ho hum, break takes the stage and the peleton arrives in an uncontested bunch 5 minutes later. But nooooo. Stupidly strong break with de Gendt and de Marchi, Terpstra and King along with a couple teams not in the break really wanting a shot at a stage win combined with Alaphilippe laser-focused on bonus seconds to retake the yellow jersey for Bastille Day resulted in some brilliant racing. Chapeau to Thomas de Gendt for pulling off a wonderful hard man win from the break. How he stayed in front of Alaphilippe and Pinot at the end is beyond me, since they'd been sitting in the bunch all day and should have had much fresher legs and only 20 seconds to pull back. And what a fun attack from Alaphilippe and Pinot. I just love moments where guys from different teams work in perfect unison because their interests align. Each knew they could trust the other to give their all, because neither of them was really fussed about the order they finished in so long as they had a gap on the bunch behind. Alaphilippe gets to play the hero of French cycling for the next week, and Thibaut Pinot has now moved himself from the outside chance to podium category firmly into the podium place is his to lose category. He's a decent ITT away from being a threat to win the whole thing, actually.
  #26  
Old 07-14-2019, 10:37 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
And let's not diminish the fact that G was involved in crash in a critical part of the stage and still came back to the head of the peleton to finish strong. So G still very much in it.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #27  
Old 07-15-2019, 10:52 AM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
WvA throws it down in a GT sprint - great to see him win a stage, supreme competitor to go with his talent. I wonder if he can become a GC rider in the future - he seems to have more of that strong cyclocross build so perhaps the climbing won't ever be on the cards.

Bit of a shake-up in the GC, Thomas looking extremely well-placed. Would love to see Alaphillipe in the mix for as long as possible but reckon the Ineos machine will take over in the mountains.
  #28  
Old 07-17-2019, 03:47 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Maybe the last day for GC standings as they are, but well done Caleb Ewan. He's got to be one of the smallest guys in cycling, but man, he can throw down.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #29  
Old 07-17-2019, 04:09 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
It baffles me that such a tiny guy can be a pure sprinter, frankly. He can't be much bigger than Estaban Chavez, ffs.
  #30  
Old 07-17-2019, 05:53 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorsnak View Post
It baffles me that such a tiny guy can be a pure sprinter, frankly. He can't be much bigger than Estaban Chavez, ffs.
It's got to be because he's got the lightest bike in the peloton.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #31  
Old 07-19-2019, 04:15 AM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Sedate stage yesterday - Ineos rolling 8 deep at the front looked sort of ominous for everyone else. Rowe and van Baarle driving the peloton over a cat 1 climb tells you that none of the GC men were interested, with an ITT today and Tourmalet tomorrow.

Time trial not usually the best spectator sport but think I'll tune in to see their set-ups as I like a bit of testing myself. Apparently a lot of the peloton are not all that aero, which sounds counter-intuitive, given the Tour is usually the pinnacle of bicycle technology. Lowering your cda (measurement of 'aero-ness) takes dedicated experimentation and training in the TT position, and is just not worth the time for most of the field outside of the top GC men (where the test is obv critical) and TT / track specialists who focus on testing outside of grand tours.

Hoping Alex Dowsett does a good ride - most dominant UK timetrialist of recent years and currently riding for Katusha. He will totally empty the tank today, whereas the GC guys will need to be a little more measured. He's not got many grand tours under his belt, though, so his legs might be in bits - TT in the middle of a GT is obv a different game than tapering for an isolated 25 mile test, say. He's also a haemophiliac, which is sort of an interesting fact. Probably wants to avoid crashing.

Rohan Dennis - beast of a timetrialist and one of the favourites for today pulled out yesterday for reasons that have not been made public. This usually means personal issues and I guess must have been pretty serious for him to abandon when he did, hope he is alright.
  #32  
Old 07-19-2019, 08:30 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Quote:
Originally Posted by Busy Scissors View Post
Sedate stage yesterday - Ineos rolling 8 deep at the front looked sort of ominous for everyone else. Rowe and van Baarle driving the peloton over a cat ...


I had to read that sentence three times because I missed the "1" on the two first passes.

Yeah, that bit about "internal investigation" into Rohan Dennis abandoning is ominous sounding. Still nothing today.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #33  
Old 07-19-2019, 09:13 AM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Serious crash for van Aert there - hope he is OK but he's stayed down and an ambulance is being called
Was going extremely well, couldn't see exactly what he hit but he was railing a corner and clipped something on the barrier.
  #34  
Old 07-19-2019, 11:33 AM
drm is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Canada
Posts: 4,434
I had Alaphilippe doing well, but not win the stage well. Good job by him, he has won TT stages before, but nothing like this. I feel like he was underestimated in this respect before the stage...not anymore though. My understanding is that he does better with the ďshorterĒ punchier climbs, but he clearly has the power, so it should be interesting. If he rides with a power meter, I would figure out your max sustainable effort for each finishing climb and stick to it and ignore the inevitable attacks (to a point). Kind of like Dumoulin.

As a Pinot fan, that 1:40 lost in the wind appears more and more crushing as he can really climb in the high mountains. Thatís racing though and it ainít over yet. Great ride today though.

Iím interested in someone other than Ineos winning so letís see if some other contenders can work together a bit.
  #35  
Old 07-19-2019, 12:28 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
I suspect Alaphilippe might prove disconcertingly difficult to get out of yellow, kinda like Voekler back in 2011 when every day in the mountains he'd predict that he'd lose yellow and then somehow always hung on, at least until Alpe d'Huez. Alaphilippe's never had any particular reason to try to finish well on real mountain stages before - he's at grand tours to hunt stages, which is best accomplished (for him) by taking it easy on high mountain stages and saving his energy for rolling stages with punchy finishes. But if he's trying, I expect he should be able to climb with the GC guys for a good long ways.

All that said, it looks pretty good for G to defend his title at the moment.
  #36  
Old 07-19-2019, 02:06 PM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorsnak View Post
I suspect Alaphilippe might prove disconcertingly difficult to get out of yellow, kinda like Voekler back in 2011 when every day in the mountains he'd predict that he'd lose yellow and then somehow always hung on, at least until Alpe d'Huez. Alaphilippe's never had any particular reason to try to finish well on real mountain stages before - he's at grand tours to hunt stages, which is best accomplished (for him) by taking it easy on high mountain stages and saving his energy for rolling stages with punchy finishes. But if he's trying, I expect he should be able to climb with the GC guys for a good long ways.

All that said, it looks pretty good for G to defend his title at the moment.
Reckon Ineos will put Ala and Quickstep straight to the test tomorrow, Brailsford is aggressive. Saying that, the Tourmalet is a beast of a climb but it's very steady, something like 8 or 9% consistent until you're right at the top where it kicks a little. Can't see Ala getting blown up or anything like that, esp as he's in such rocket form, but he's in for a hard day.
Should be good racing whatever happens.

Last edited by Busy Scissors; 07-19-2019 at 02:06 PM.
  #37  
Old 07-19-2019, 02:16 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Quote:
Originally Posted by Busy Scissors View Post
Reckon Ineos will put Ala and Quickstep straight to the test tomorrow, Brailsford is aggressive. Saying that, the Tourmalet is a beast of a climb but it's very steady, something like 8 or 9% consistent until you're right at the top where it kicks a little. Can't see Ala getting blown up or anything like that, esp as he's in such rocket form, but he's in for a hard day.
Should be good racing whatever happens.
I think Alaphilippe will have his hands full with GT and EG giving him no rest. And those are just the immediate threats. He'll be on the defensive all day.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #38  
Old 07-19-2019, 03:20 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuickSilver View Post
I think Alaphilippe will have his hands full with GT and EG giving him no rest. And those are just the immediate threats. He'll be on the defensive all day.
I doubt G or Bernal will attack. Ineos will do Ineos things. They'll set their train climbing at a vicious pace intended to prevent the likes of Pinot or Yates from attacking. That pace will eventually drop at least some GC-focused riders. Finally, in the last km or so, G or Bernal might attack and gain 20 seconds on whatever remains of the GC group. Alaphilippe doesn't have to do anything besides sit in the wheels of the Skytrain. (Ineos train just doesn't have the ring, so we can't call it that.)

Remember, he's not expected to win the GC. If Yates or someone attacks, Alaphilippe isn't obliged to chase down the attack. Thomas, as the presumptive leader of the "real" general classification is obliged to chase down attacks (or have his domestiques do it for him).
  #39  
Old 07-19-2019, 03:37 PM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gorsnak View Post
I doubt G or Bernal will attack. Ineos will do Ineos things. They'll set their train climbing at a vicious pace intended to prevent the likes of Pinot or Yates from attacking. That pace will eventually drop at least some GC-focused riders. Finally, in the last km or so, G or Bernal might attack and gain 20 seconds on whatever remains of the GC group. Alaphilippe doesn't have to do anything besides sit in the wheels of the Skytrain. (Ineos train just doesn't have the ring, so we can't call it that.)

Remember, he's not expected to win the GC. If Yates or someone attacks, Alaphilippe isn't obliged to chase down the attack. Thomas, as the presumptive leader of the "real" general classification is obliged to chase down attacks (or have his domestiques do it for him).
Why wouldn't team fracking send Bernal up the road? It could be devestating, Ala forced to chase and G sits in along with 3 other teammates.

It's true that the modern Tour is often anticlimactic in these scenarios, you think we're nailed on for an absolute ding dong stage but what actually happens is like you say, brutal, attritional pace but no real attacks, only small time gaps. But with Ineos 90 secs back I think they'll try and assert their authority tomorrow.

Last edited by Busy Scissors; 07-19-2019 at 03:40 PM.
  #40  
Old 07-19-2019, 06:09 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by Busy Scissors View Post
Why wouldn't team fracking send Bernal up the road? It could be devestating, Ala forced to chase and G sits in along with 3 other teammates.

It's true that the modern Tour is often anticlimactic in these scenarios, you think we're nailed on for an absolute ding dong stage but what actually happens is like you say, brutal, attritional pace but no real attacks, only small time gaps. But with Ineos 90 secs back I think they'll try and assert their authority tomorrow.
I don't think Ineos think they are racing against Alaphilippe. They won't attack him because they don't think he's in the race. G has 45' on Kruijswijk, and 2+ minutes on everyone else they though was going to contend for GC. Bernal may well attack in the final kilometres to try to move past Mas and Kruijswijk, but aside from that they'll play it conservative in the Pyrenees. If somehow Alaphilippe doesn't get dropped by Ineos mountain domestiques this weekend, they still have plenty of mountains in the last week to get rid of him.

Or at least, that's how they'll race, is my prediction. They'll play defense, not offense.
  #41  
Old 07-20-2019, 11:13 AM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Well, the first proper mountain stage and we're not at all where I would have predicted at the start of the race.

1. Holy shit, Julian Alaphilippe could conceivably win this race. He could also ship 20 minutes tomorrow or in the Alps, of course. We don't really know whether his recovery between stages will be sufficient to hang on, but clearly on any given day he can hang with the best climbers.
2. We can cross out a bunch of names from the contenders list. Nibali, Porte, Yates, Bardet, Fuglsang, Quintana, and Landa are all not going to get anywhere near the podium.
3. Real remaining podium contenders are basically the current top 6 in the GC: Alaphilippe, G, Kruijswijk, Bernal, Buchmann, and Pinot.
4. That 1'40" in the crosswinds looms very large at the moment, as Pinot would be in 2nd instead of 6th if he hadn't been caught out there.

My current rankings:
1. Steven Kruijswijk - Nearly won the Giro a couple years ago but for an unfortunate downhill crash, so we know that he has grand tour chops. He trails G by just 12 seconds, has shown no weaknesses, and had significant team support deeper into today's stage than anyone else. The downside is that half his team is support for Groenewegen.
2. Geraint Thomas - Cracks today, but still in second place, and has significant time on everyone but Kruijswijk (and Alaphilippe of course). If the loss today was just a bad moment and not a sign of things to come he's still in very good shape.
3. Julian Alaphilippe - WTF. I mean, we knew he could climb. He took the polka dots last year, after all. But he also finished an hour and a half down. There's a big difference between getting into a break, taking max points over the first climbs of the day before dropping to the grupetto on the last one and sticking with the leaders through a whole mountain stage. Julian's strength has always been extended anaerobic efforts, which is why he wins races like La Fleche Wallone that end on brutally steep but relatively short climbs. Grand tours are an entirely different ballgame. However, he's in form and ridiculously hard to drop, so maybe? Still, it would be no shock to see him crack badly on one of the remaining high mountain stages.
4. Thibaut Pinot - Actually looks like the strongest rider in this race at the moment. Were it not for that stupid getting caught out in the crosswinds, he'd be in second place and sitting very pretty. The knocks on him have always been weak descending and a seemingly somewhat fragile mentality, but his descending seems much improved in recent years and he seems to have his head in a more stable place since he took a few years off from the Tour and raced the Giro instead. I like his chances at a podium finish.
5. Egan Bernal - He's looked good so far, and is a red-hot favourite to win several grand tours in the future, but I'm not convinced he's quite there yet. We'll see whether he's matured into a proper contender with how he holds up in the third week.

Tomorrow should provide significant information about which of these guys will be celebrating in Paris. If G finishes with the favourites tomorrow we can write of the loss today as just a bad moment, but if he really was cracking it could be far worse tomorrow. And if Julian hangs with the other favourites tomorrow, the others have to really start worrying about whether this guy is going to ruin their party.
  #42  
Old 07-20-2019, 02:41 PM
drm is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Canada
Posts: 4,434
The wildcard for me is Emanuel Buchmann. He looked the least taxed today along with Bernal, Krushweak, and Pinot. I feel like he has a part to play yet.

Last edited by drm; 07-20-2019 at 02:42 PM.
  #43  
Old 07-20-2019, 02:55 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Watching Movistar ride the legs off Quintana was interesting. Going back to help him seemed a wasted effort, too little too late.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #44  
Old 07-20-2019, 03:17 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuickSilver View Post
Watching Movistar ride the legs off Quintana was interesting. Going back to help him seemed a wasted effort, too little too late.
Serious failure of team communication, that. Movistar are in a bad spot. Maybe Landa can get a stage win, which would be some sort of result, but they're up there with AG2R in terms of disappointment at the moment.
  #45  
Old 07-20-2019, 06:39 PM
Busy Scissors is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: The Euston Tavern
Posts: 2,859
Do you reckon movistar like Quintana? It was like a club run dropping the pain in the arse guy no one likes. A bit keystone cops, but I guess imposing your will on the peloton ain't as easy as Sky / Ineos usually make it look.

Absolutely crucifying pace but Alaphilippe on top of it all day - have to say that is another level, left a trail of bodies in his wake. Pinot looked class - great win.

Surprised to see G crack but more so to see Ineos under the cosh, predicted the opposite. Wout Poels is usually the stealth assassin - not so much a glimpse of him on tv for the first ten days, then quietly moves to the front, once the serious climbing starts, to dish out some pain. Didn't have it today, though, dropped off the lead group and couldn't contribute to the selection. With Froome out that does make Ineos more vulnerable to someone having a bad day. van Baarle put in a huge stint today - classics man like that going deep on the Tourmalet was impressive to see.

As Gorsnak says if that was G's bad day then he's probably in a good spot - ie he knew he didn't quite have it today and rode within himself to limit the damage. OTOH if that was him legit cracking and hanging on for dear life then it's wide open. When things go wrong for G there are not usually any grey areas - a bad crash, totally blowing up, so I'm still optimistic for him. Hard one tomorrow so we shall see.

Last edited by Busy Scissors; 07-20-2019 at 06:39 PM.
  #46  
Old 07-20-2019, 07:02 PM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
I've had a suspicion for a few years now that Quintana's teammates don't think much of his abilities and resent having to sacrifice themselves for him. He had potential. I don't know what happened to it.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #47  
Old 07-20-2019, 07:11 PM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
The Movistar DS said in an interview after the stage that Quintana hadn't communicated that he was on a bad day. The team was really pushing for him, so him not piping up and telling them to ride defensively instead is pretty bad. If Landa hadn't lost so much time when he crashed in the crosswinds they could just back him instead, as he looks strong enough to contend were it not for the time lost that day.

Anyways, rumour has Quintana going to Arkea-Samsic next year, so Movistar domestiques don't have to grumble about that for long.
  #48  
Old 07-21-2019, 07:07 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Looking like Nairo got a pep talk.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #49  
Old 07-21-2019, 09:44 AM
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 18,573
Yep. Zero love/respect for NQ from Movistar or his grupetto for sitting on. Landa is 4 places ahead of him so very little reason to work for Quintana. Didn't even acknowledge him.

Mikel v. Simon.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #50  
Old 07-21-2019, 10:02 AM
Gorsnak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Saskaboom
Posts: 9,306
Gonna have to revise my power rankings......
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:23 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017