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  #101  
Old 11-15-2018, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Stanislaus View Post
The UK is on track to leave the EU on 29 March, in exactly the same way that people who jump out of planes are on track to smash into the ground. There are some specific actions they can take to avoid that fate, but failing that ground-smashing is what's going to happen.
It is very strange to watch this process, it is like watching someone sawing through their own wrist, and at the same time they continue to be loudly declaring they refuse to stop unless they get a deal for having another hand...

And the strange comments that show some kind of the magical thinking like the ex minister for the Brexit ""hadn’t quite understood” the importance of cross-Channel trade to the UK economy (also the BBC for more of the context) is just strange. It all seems to be like the very comments by Quartz here in this thread and even over the years, going back to some vague resentments that are not very well supported by any analysis of the economic logic or the economic data and facts. Nostalgie for the Glorious years as imagined in memory?
  #102  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:05 AM
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I'm not a Brit, but I would kind of expect that the Brexit secretary would, you know, be in charge of handling Brexit. But that's just me.
Well, the first appointee to the role was David Davies - a leading Brexiteer. He didn't exactly do a good job so the Cabinet Office took over in all but name.
  #103  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:06 AM
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I'm not a Brit, but I would kind of expect that the Brexit secretary would, you know, be in charge of handling Brexit. But that's just me.
He was the minister just said in the public only a few weeks ago that he was surprised to learn how important the channel transit and the frictionless trade is to the British economy, so it is maybe too much to expect the mastery of the boring details.
  #104  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:09 AM
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The Conservative Party has their own internal rules regarding the confidence votes in the Prime Minister.

That process has just been triggered by Rees-Mogg writing a letter to the Conservative Party 1922 Committee.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...resa-may-1922/

If enough Conservative MPs join him in asking for a no confidence motion in the leadership of the party, that could mark the end of Theresa May as a Conservative Prime Minister.

The party would remain in power and then to quickly elect a new leader to take the poisoned chalice that is Brexit. Whether they would want a General Election, they would have to agree that with Labour, I guess.
  #105  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:18 AM
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Apparently 48 Conservative MPs are required to trigger a Conservative Party no confidence motion in Theresa May as leader.

Will she be able to muster enough support to see off this challenge?

If May goes, so does the Withdrawal Agreement. A new incumbent would have to come up with something pretty darned quick that could be sold to the party and was acceptable to the EU.
  #106  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:42 AM
Dewey Finn Dewey Finn is offline
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That's the thing; is there any other MP who thinks they can do a better job of negotiating this? Does this Rees-Mogg guy have any better idea how it should go down?
  #107  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:45 AM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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Six resignations from the May Government and counting: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...ntl/index.html
  #108  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:48 AM
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Purely as a hypothetical: IF the House of Commons were allowed to vote by secret ballot, how would they split today on the Remain-Leave question? (For the purpose of this hypothetical, let's assume that Merkel et al have agreed to "go easy" and forget about Article 50 if "Remain" wins.)
  #109  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:51 AM
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Could you spell what you *think* he demanded and got turned down for?



What concerns? Spell them out. Don't be vague. And explain why they're the EU's problems rather than Westminster's, and finally if it's reasonable to expect the EU to accommodate them.




So that magically makes something that cannot logically exist exist, does it?


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Hey Quartz, when you're ready?
  #110  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:53 AM
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Purely as a hypothetical: IF the House of Commons were allowed to vote by secret ballot, how would they split today on the Remain-Leave question? (For the purpose of this hypothetical, let's assume that Merkel et al have agreed to "go easy" and forget about Article 50 if "Remain" wins.)
There's a majority of Remain MPs in the Commons, many represent what were Leave-majority constituencies in the referendum. Many have changed since then, I'd wager.
  #111  
Old 11-15-2018, 09:58 AM
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I'd imagine if a secret vote overturned the referendum result that would lead to quite a crisis* in the public's confidence in politics.

*more of a crisis.
  #112  
Old 11-15-2018, 11:16 AM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
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Originally Posted by septimus View Post
Purely as a hypothetical: IF the House of Commons were allowed to vote by secret ballot, how would they split today on the Remain-Leave question? (For the purpose of this hypothetical, let's assume that Merkel et al have agreed to "go easy" and forget about Article 50 if "Remain" wins.)

I would suggest that it would be an overwhelming vote to Remain. Brexit was never a popular issue with MPs except for those on the Atlanticist fringe of the Conservative Party. It was never really an issue that Labour was bothered about.

No politician in their right mind wants to spend the next years dealing with this problem and disruption that Brexit will cause. Tearing up agreements is easy. Building them takes a long time. They know that the public are mainly interested in their politicians dealing with 'home and hearth' issues - Health, Education, Jobs, etc. Not complicated international trade negotiations that they do not understand. There are no votes in this.

I am sure most MPs wish the whole issue would just go away so they can get back to normal politics.
  #113  
Old 11-15-2018, 11:38 AM
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Could you spell what you *think* he demanded and got turned down for?
You could have looked it up for yourself. Here's the BBC's report.
  #114  
Old 11-15-2018, 11:50 AM
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So the people elected to represent the People want to Remain, but are afraid of the foolish People that elected them. Perhaps Churchill was right after all when he called "democracy the worst form of government."

How about that woman whose face appears on all your money? I assume she wants to Remain also. I'll repeat the same suggestion that has been made before in SDMB threads on this topic, but is always booed down. But remember: Difficult times may require extreme measures.

Elizabeth Dei Gratia performs a once-in-a-lifetime duty, demonstrating why Britain has retained its "obsolete" Monarchy. She dissolves Parliament, takes charge personally, and announces that the U.K. will Remain in the European Community. Members of Parliament pretend to be outraged, but smile inside, shrug their shoulders, and say "What can we do? The Constitutional Authority has ruled."

In the aftermath of this, Britain might throw off the royal yoke and become a Republic ... but nevertheless obey the pre-Revolution Command and Remain.

Far-fetched? Probably. But an "insoluble" crisis of such extreme peril may require an extreme solution.
  #115  
Old 11-15-2018, 12:05 PM
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An interesting point to bear in mind throughout all of this:

The Withdrawal Agreement is 585 pages of dense legal text. It's been available for less than 24 hours. Pretty much anyone who has a strong opinion about it can safely be said not to have read it in full, still less to have thoroughly digested it. It's just not possible in the time.

You can give May and her Cabinet Ministers a bit of a pass - they've had it explained to them at some sort of length by people who do understand it (one hopes). But the ERG lot, Corbyn and his six tests, "commentators" and anyone else who's telling you exactly what the deal means are working off summaries and skim-reading at best.
  #116  
Old 11-15-2018, 12:11 PM
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The Withdrawal Agreement is 585 pages of dense legal text. It's been available for less than 24 hours. Pretty much anyone who has a strong opinion about it can safely be said not to have read it in full, still less to have thoroughly digested it. It's just not possible in the time.
Yup. It's a real slog. And another book arrived this morning which took priority.
  #117  
Old 11-15-2018, 12:15 PM
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They went about as far as 'take control of our waters'. Daft, unworkable, and the lack of detail extremely telling.
Umm...

The territorial waters of the UK are well-defined and we have the fisheries protection vessels and the navy to protect and enforce them. It's not a difficult problem or one that requires a lot of detail.
  #118  
Old 11-15-2018, 01:38 PM
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Didn't we send Megan Markel over there to help you guys with this stuff? Has she not been helping at all?
  #119  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:07 PM
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Did she (May) seriously name drop Geoff Boycott? AKA the most selfish batsman to every play the game. Guy who once helped lose a World Cup final by being so ridiculously slow?
Who was once dropped for being too slow while batting? Who was sacked as captain after a revolt?
Now if she had said Peter May, she would have had a point.

Last edited by AK84; 11-15-2018 at 02:08 PM.
  #120  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:14 PM
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While Brexiteers are complaining about EU 'vassalage', some EU leaders are complaining that the agreement is not tough enough on the UK.

'Soft' Brexit agreement not a done deal, warn EU leaders

Quote:
France’s finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, has welcomed the draft Brexit withdrawal agreement but warned Paris would be vigilant on its final terms, amid mounting concern from EU member states that the UK was being given too soft a deal. ...He stressed France would be “cautious” over formally signing off the divorce deal to ensure it “guards French and European interests”.
...

The Dutch foreign affairs minister, Stef Blok, said the Netherlands would study the draft text “very carefully”, paying “extra attention to agreements on a level playing field and fishing … The customs union as backstop plan demands close examination”.

France, Spain and Denmark voiced their concerns at a meeting with the European commission on Wednesday, saying the UK was being given a customs union without sufficient guarantees against future undercutting of EU firms and EU standards. The Netherlands has raised similar worries.

EU ministers meeting on Monday are likely to demand that the price the UK pays for a customs union, included in the withdrawal agreement as the only mutually acceptable mechanism for avoiding a hard border across the island of Ireland or down the Irish sea, must be higher.
So it's by no means certain that the EU will accept this deal without modifications. Those modifications will make it even less acceptable to the UK Parliament than it already is.
  #121  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:20 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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So the people elected to represent the People want to Remain, but are afraid of the foolish People that elected them. Perhaps Churchill was right after all when he called "democracy the worst form of government...."
You mustn't omit the rest of that quotation: "except for all the others that have been tried from time to time."

And you're fantasizing if you think Her Majesty is going to weigh in with substantive political action that her elected government doesn't advise her to take.
  #122  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:24 PM
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The Maybot has turned into the Terminator. She just keeps going... and going... and going... with an utterly one-track mind, and utter certainty that she is right... no matter what gets thrown at her.
  #123  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:37 PM
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The Maybot has turned into the Terminator. She just keeps going... and going... and going... with an utterly one-track mind, and utter certainty that she is right... no matter what gets thrown at her.
More likely, she's shitting herself, overcompensating over inability ("Stable and strong!") and confusion ("Brexit means Brexit"). The kind of people who want to become PM aren't the kind who readily quit positions of power unless they have to and no one else wants the job enough at this time to throw her out. So she keeps on trying to do something about the biggest problem she has.


I don't know if I'm looking with rose-tinted glasses but UK politics, including its leaders, seems pathetic in the last few years. Speaking from Canada, it's like a 30-year-old seeing his parents go lumpen and senile.

Last edited by MichaelEmouse; 11-15-2018 at 02:38 PM.
  #124  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:37 PM
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Draft here:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/site...greement_0.pdf

Could some readers here read it and summarize for the rest of us (the draft is 585 pages long--but it is double-spaced).
Er... not me. Here's the Guardian's attempt

One thing that I've just thought of is that, although obviously the Irish government has been key to the business of the "backstop" and the Irish border situation, there hasn't been any mention of Gibraltar, although the EU27's original opening statement put down a marker that the Spanish had to be satisfied about the implications for Gibraltar. Or maybe that's one more thing that's kicked into the transition period negotiations. Or maybe the Spanish dropped that in favour of insisting on access to fishing.

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  #125  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:45 PM
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More likely, she's shitting herself, overcompensating over inability ("Stable and strong!") and confusion ("Brexit means Brexit"). The kind of people who want to become PM aren't the kind who readily quit positions of power unless they have to and no one else wants the job enough at this time to throw her out. So she keeps on trying to do something about the biggest problem she has.


I don't know if I'm looking with rose-tinted glasses but UK politics, including its leaders, seems pathetic in the last few years. Speaking from Canada, it's like a 30-year-old seeing his parents go lumpen and senile.
It's was May's speech this afternoon that made me think of the Terminator.

I agree about UK politics. There is nobody in any of the parties who looks remotely like a capable leader.
  #126  
Old 11-15-2018, 02:57 PM
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Did she (May) seriously name drop Geoff Boycott? AKA the most selfish batsman to every play the game. Guy who once helped lose a World Cup final by being so ridiculously slow?
Who was once dropped for being too slow while batting? Who was sacked as captain after a revolt?
Now if she had said Peter May, she would have had a point.
Yep, that's what I saw too. Remarkable candour I guess.
  #127  
Old 11-15-2018, 03:03 PM
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Er... not me. Here's the Guardian's attempt

One thing that I've just thought of is that, although obviously the Irish government has been key to the business of the "backstop" and the Irish border situation, there hasn't been any mention of Gibraltar, although the EU27's original opening statement put down a marker that the Spanish had to be satisfied about the implications for Gibraltar. Or maybe that's one more thing that's kicked into the transition period negotiations. Or maybe the Spanish dropped that in favour of insisting on access to fishing.
There's a fair bit about Gibraltar in the Annexes to the WA, and also about the Sovereign Bases on Cyprus. The detailed Gibraltar stuff starts on page 496.

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 11-15-2018 at 03:04 PM.
  #128  
Old 11-15-2018, 03:27 PM
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You could have looked it up for yourself. Here's the BBC's report.
That article lists four things Cameron asked for. Two were agreed (opt out from "closer union" and commitment to reduce red tape), one was a compromise (rules on benefits for eu immigrants agreed but with relaxed timings), and the last was mostly agreed (no UK commitment to the Euro, but also no special rules for UK finance).

Sounds like he got a fairly good deal. Which bit do you think was unfair and condescending on the EUs part?

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  #129  
Old 11-15-2018, 03:35 PM
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Sounds like he got a fairly good deal. Which bit do you think was unfair and condescending on the EUs part?
Not getting every exception that was to the UK's benefit while retaining all the advantages of EU membership? Anything less is tantamount to letting one of those lecherous frogs piss on the grave of Saint George Himself!
  #130  
Old 11-15-2018, 03:48 PM
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Didn't we send Megan Markel over there to help you guys with this stuff? Has she not been helping at all?
She is quite good at looking glamourous, accepting flowers from children and saying 'How do you do' and pretending to be interested in people at Royal events. She is growing big with child and they are not divorced yet. So far so good.

What we need is someone who knows how to strike a great deal with the European Union. If only we had some successful big business guy with his own hair and teeth who can tell the French a thing or two.
  #131  
Old 11-15-2018, 04:07 PM
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It's was May's speech this afternoon that made me think of the Terminator.

I agree about UK politics. There is nobody in any of the parties who looks remotely like a capable leader.
Indeed! May's speech was the some format as ever. Lots of waffle and lists of things, optimistic platitudes, many stating the obvious. Her current favourite phrase is 'in the nations best interests'. She never gives anything away, there is no detail. No direct question ever gets an a direct answer. She is controlled, unexpressive and quite boring. She gives nothing away, least of all any personality.

I do wonder what she is like away from the public gaze trying to control that bunch ferrets in her Cabinet. Does she swear like a trooper or leave it to one of her henchmen.
  #132  
Old 11-15-2018, 04:25 PM
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I don't know if I'm looking with rose-tinted glasses but UK politics, including its leaders, seems pathetic in the last few years. Speaking from Canada, it's like a 30-year-old seeing his parents go lumpen and senile.
That is a pretty fair description. There is no-one who looks anything like a statesman or stateswoman with leadership qualities. It is dominated by party hacks interested only in advancing their own careers and stabbing each other in the back. No vision, no ideals, no principles and no talent. That goes for Labour as well as the Conservatives.

UK politics is going through a very lack lustre period, the parties are consumed by their own internal wrangles and with Brexit they have let it spill over into national policy that looks as it is going to seriously damage the economy.

It is an appalling state of affairs.
  #133  
Old 11-15-2018, 04:32 PM
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That article lists four things Cameron asked for. Two were agreed (opt out from "closer union" and commitment to reduce red tape), one was a compromise (rules on benefits for eu immigrants agreed but with relaxed timings), and the last was mostly agreed (no UK commitment to the Euro, but also no special rules for UK finance).

Sounds like he got a fairly good deal. Which bit do you think was unfair and condescending on the EUs part?

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I think it was the Continent forgot to hail the specialness of the very special Unitedness of the special kingdom with the right special words.

So it made the getting the good deal very insulting and has forced the united kingdom to take itself as the hostage and threaten to shoot itself in the leg.
  #134  
Old 11-15-2018, 06:24 PM
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You could have looked it up for yourself. Here's the BBC's report.
Okay, now tell me what he got turned down for? You're not being specific. Where's the pat on the head? What did you *want* to be the outcome?
  #135  
Old 11-15-2018, 06:27 PM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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Umm...

The territorial waters of the UK are well-defined and we have the fisheries protection vessels and the navy to protect and enforce them. It's not a difficult problem or one that requires a lot of detail.
Fish don't care about borders. Stopping boats traversing coastal zones simply denies British fishermen their catch. Tragedy of the commons.

And I thought the Navy was intended to defend the Realm, not be squandered picking fights with fishing vessels. It's a daft, expensive, pointless idea.
  #136  
Old 11-15-2018, 06:52 PM
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And I thought the Navy was intended to defend the Realm, not be squandered picking fights with fishing vessels. It's a daft, expensive, pointless idea.
I'm sure one of the Vanguard-class submarines could be spared to show Johnny Foreign-Fisherman what's what, what?
  #137  
Old 11-15-2018, 07:53 PM
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Umm...

The territorial waters of the UK are well-defined and we have the fisheries protection vessels and the navy to protect and enforce them. It's not a difficult problem or one that requires a lot of detail.
The territorial waters of the UK are quite different from (and much smaller than) its fishing grounds, and the fact that you confuse even this basic point suggests that the issue is not quite as simple as all that. Big issue is that most fish caught in UK waters are landed at non-UK ports and sold into non-UK markets, while most fish landed/consumed in UK is caught outside UK waters. Different fish species in each case. So if fishing is carved out like this, either the British learn to eat different fish and like it, or they pay tariffs on imported fish, and suffer tariffs on exported fish.

Either of these is doable, and the likely outcome would be some combination of the two. But net effect is not necessarily positive for British fishing industry.
  #138  
Old 11-15-2018, 08:07 PM
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That is a pretty fair description. There is no-one who looks anything like a statesman or stateswoman with leadership qualities. It is dominated by party hacks interested only in advancing their own careers and stabbing each other in the back. No vision, no ideals, no principles and no talent. That goes for Labour as well as the Conservatives.

UK politics is going through a very lack lustre period, the parties are consumed by their own internal wrangles and with Brexit they have let it spill over into national policy that looks as it is going to seriously damage the economy.

It is an appalling state of affairs.
At a time like this, you have to play to your strengths. I agree there's an appalling dearth of leadership in the UK at the moment (on both sides of politics), but May isn't entirely talentless; she has one superpower, which is the ability to cling to office like a limpet in circumstances where most prime ministers would be long gone. It's not much, but it's all there is to work with.

So here's a scenario:

- EU: Council endorses the deal when it meets on 25 November.

- Deal fails to secure majority in UK Parliament in early December. General election does not ensue, because of Fixed Term Parliaments Act. May does not resign, is not sshafted by party.

- EU says always happy to talk but, basically, we see no need to depart from deal already negotiated and accepted by HMG and by European Council.

- Markets drop because of increasing risk of no-deal Brexit. Corporates begin to execute no-deal plans, leading to economic disruption. Markets drop some more. Sterling tanks. Increasing public disquiet.

- UK negotiators secure cosmetic changes to agreed deal and, in say mid-January, the cosmetically changed deal is put to UK Parliament again. Pressure on MPs from party funders (Tory) and constituents (Labour) to avoid no-deal Brexit is now much greater. MPs know that if they vote in a way that delivers no-deal Brexit, they will be crucified at the next election. Parliament accepts deal.

Basically, May has two things going for her:

1. Her ability to cling to office.

2. Brexiteer fantasies are unrealisable and the closer Brexit-day gets, the clearer this becomes.

All May has to do is to hang on until reality triumphs. Or, at any rate, that may be her strategy at this point.
  #139  
Old 11-15-2018, 08:31 PM
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Did she (May) seriously name drop Geoff Boycott? AKA the most selfish batsman to every play the game. Guy who once helped lose a World Cup final by being so ridiculously slow?
Who was once dropped for being too slow while batting? Who was sacked as captain after a revolt?
Now if she had said Peter May, she would have had a point.

It's as if we speak the same language but the net effect is as comprehensible as if it's Swahili.

  #140  
Old 11-15-2018, 08:46 PM
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How about that woman whose face appears on all your money? I assume she wants to Remain also.
On what basis do you make that assumption? Aren't you simply projecting your own valeurs onto her? Cité, please, that HM has ever expressed any personal opinion on the Brexit issue ?

Quote:
Elizabeth Dei Gratia performs a once-in-a-lifetime duty, demonstrating why Britain has retained its "obsolete" Monarchy. She dissolves Parliament, takes charge personally, and announces that the U.K. will Remain in the European Community.
Thereby doing tremendously worse damage to the constitutional structure of the United Kingdom than any mere trade dispute could ever do.

Quote:
Members of Parliament pretend to be outraged, but smile inside, shrug their shoulders, and say "What can we do? The Constitutional Authority* has ruled."
Members of Parliament, political animals all, in quest of power, in one of Europe's longest-running democracies, just shrug their shoulders about being gelded
by a Royal Coup after the fashion of Emperor Napoleon III? And the committed Leavers and Remainers just say "Right, that's done. What's on the telly? Oh, Coronation Street!"

Quote:
Far-fetched? Probably. But an "insoluble" crisis of such extreme peril may require an extreme solution.

Pure fantasy, worse than anything that the most extreme and delusional Leavers or Remainers have come up with.


* By the way, the ultimate Constitutional Authority in Britain is Parliament, not HM.
  #141  
Old 11-16-2018, 01:22 AM
AK84 AK84 is offline
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It's as if we speak the same language but the net effect is as comprehensible as if it's Swahili.


In fact Mrs May has also forgotten that Botham once ran out Boycott purposely, since he was playing too slowly. Beefy then compared Boycott to a female anatomy part.

Last edited by AK84; 11-16-2018 at 01:23 AM.
  #142  
Old 11-16-2018, 01:55 AM
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Lord Feldon Lord Feldon is offline
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She dissolves Parliament, takes charge personally, and announces that the U.K. will Remain in the European Community.
Even if this weren't a crazy fantasy, she can't dissolve Parliament. That prerogative was abolished in 2010. Parliament now dissolves automatically before an election, without her being involved at all.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 11-16-2018 at 01:57 AM.
  #143  
Old 11-16-2018, 03:11 AM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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What's everyone's take on the future viability of the Conservative Party? I'm skeptical, as modern parties seem incredibly durable and MPs loathe to be labelled the ones that destroyed a party, but it seems to be being threatened by some.


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  #144  
Old 11-16-2018, 03:12 AM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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At a time like this, you have to play to your strengths. I agree there's an appalling dearth of leadership in the UK at the moment (on both sides of politics), but May isn't entirely talentless; she has one superpower, which is the ability to cling to office like a limpet in circumstances where most prime ministers would be long gone. It's not much, but it's all there is to work with.



So here's a scenario:



- EU: Council endorses the deal when it meets on 25 November.



- Deal fails to secure majority in UK Parliament in early December. General election does not ensue, because of Fixed Term Parliaments Act. May does not resign, is not sshafted by party.



- EU says always happy to talk but, basically, we see no need to depart from deal already negotiated and accepted by HMG and by European Council.



- Markets drop because of increasing risk of no-deal Brexit. Corporates begin to execute no-deal plans, leading to economic disruption. Markets drop some more. Sterling tanks. Increasing public disquiet.



- UK negotiators secure cosmetic changes to agreed deal and, in say mid-January, the cosmetically changed deal is put to UK Parliament again. Pressure on MPs from party funders (Tory) and constituents (Labour) to avoid no-deal Brexit is now much greater. MPs know that if they vote in a way that delivers no-deal Brexit, they will be crucified at the next election. Parliament accepts deal.



Basically, May has two things going for her:



1. Her ability to cling to office.



2. Brexiteer fantasies are unrealisable and the closer Brexit-day gets, the clearer this becomes.



All May has to do is to hang on until reality triumphs. Or, at any rate, that may be her strategy at this point.


This seems realistic. My ideal fantasy would be cancellation of the whole thing so we keep our opt-outs and rebate, as I'm pretty sure we'll return to the EU in a decade's time.


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  #145  
Old 11-16-2018, 06:08 AM
PatrickLondon PatrickLondon is offline
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My ideal fantasy would be cancellation of the whole thing so we keep our opt-outs and rebate, as I'm pretty sure we'll return to the EU in a decade's time.
But the trouble is that after going through all this process there will be little or no appetite in the 27 to accommodate any more special arrangements for us.

Useful piece in the Guardian this morning about how the various parliamentary factions on this issue add up:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ugh-parliament

One could speculate as to whether this is the ultimate issue that causes a refiguration of parties, but the ingrained habits of the system tend to mean that even if something splits one of the major parties (Corn Laws, Home Rule, 1931 and all that), in the end it's reabsorbed back into a two-party dominance.
  #146  
Old 11-16-2018, 06:28 AM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
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Originally Posted by Malden Capell View Post
What's everyone's take on the future viability of the Conservative Party? I'm skeptical, as modern parties seem incredibly durable and MPs loathe to be labelled the ones that destroyed a party, but it seems to be being threatened by some.


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It is a very old party, dating from 1812, and it has seem schisms like this in the past. The Corn Laws, The Reform Act, Tariff Reform, The Irish Question. It seems to bounce back after these big splits. Brexit is just the same, it as been rumbling away since the 1970s when the UK changed from its old Commonealth trading pattern to one that engaged Continental Europe. Containing that Atlanticist versus European Community split is essential for a party leader. Sad to say, in that respect Cameron failed spectacularly with his ill conceived Brexit Referendum.

The Conservatives are a lot more resilient than the other UK parties such as Labour and the Liberals. However it does need modernising, its membership is very low and the average age of members is over sixty. Labour are ahead in that respect, but it has its own schism between Old and New Labour that shows no signs of going away.

Parties are institutions and by their nature are slow to adapt to a changing world. It takes a shock to shake them up. They will have to lose a couple of elections for that to happen. The party system is looking very old and tired in this smartphone, app happy social media obsessed world.
  #147  
Old 11-16-2018, 06:42 AM
AK84 AK84 is offline
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Errr.....on the issue of The Irish Question. This damn process has brought it up again!

In 2000 years, Britain, its language, culture, common law and achievements will all be forgotten by all except some historians. The average person will however, still have heard of the Irish question.
  #148  
Old 11-16-2018, 08:53 AM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
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The headlines saying This Deal or No Deal.

The Withdrawal Agreement is not going to be a ping pong ball bouncing back and forth between Westminster and Brussels. It goes to Brussels as it is. If they agree then it is a done deal. The only thing that will break the deal is if May loses out in a vote and it is not endorsed by the UK government.

She will also have to survive the challenge of a confidence vote if there enough letters from disgruntled Conservative MPs.

However, what choice does any successor have?

Crash out of the EU? Parliament will surely vote to support the deal and have to live with this the Withdrawal plan as it stands. The deal means several years of negotiating solutions to all outstanding issues and then negotiating a trade deal with the EU in detail....and maybe with some other countries.

It will be another couple of years of the same sort of wrangling, crises, deadlines and posturing. There will be no end to it.

The only other alternative is to have another Referendum.

At least this time, there would be something solid to read rather than the wild speculations that happened last time.
  #149  
Old 11-16-2018, 12:41 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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...In 2000 years, Britain, its language, culture, common law and achievements will all be forgotten by all except some historians. The average person will however, still have heard of the Irish question.
I have to disagree. Since the Good Friday Agreement, the Irish question, such as it is, has gotten much less attention. In two millennia I doubt it will be remembered by the average person.
  #150  
Old 11-16-2018, 01:35 PM
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And I wonder what's going to happen to all of the expensive real estate in London that's now occupied by bankers when the EU banking center moves onto Dublin or Paris or where-ever?
The main beneficiary appears to be Frankfurt, followed by Paris and Luxembourg (and to some extent Berlin). A few firms are moving to Dublin but not very many.

And most companies aren't moving out completely; they're moving significant chunks of their workforce to the Continent but they'll still have London offices. There will be empty floors in buildings and will slow down the current mad skyscraper building rush, which is one of the few benefits of the situation I've noted, but it's not like the City is going to be a ghost town.

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And whatever happened to the claim that leaving the EU would free up 350 million pounds a week that could instead be spent on the NHS?
The very next morning Nigel Farage went on television and admitted that it wasn't true and if it had been up to him they never would have used it on the buses he'd repeatedly been photographed standing in front of with nary an objection previously, and basically Leave admitted the whole thing was a blatant lie even though they'd sworn up and down it was true before the vote.
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