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  #151  
Old 11-16-2018, 03:39 PM
KatTP KatTP is offline
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Originally Posted by Quartz View Post
Yup. It's a real slog. And another book arrived this morning which took priority.
What was the book?
  #152  
Old 11-16-2018, 09:06 PM
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Baron Greenback Baron Greenback is offline
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I think this is a fair summary of the current position (correct me where I'm wrong):

- the Article 50 deadline date of the UK leaving the EU is fixed in law, at two years after invocation
- it is however extensible by agreement with the EU27
- an extension can be requested by any EU27 member eg Ireland, not just the UK
- it's possible that the invocation can be unilaterally revoked by the UK, and there's a court case
ongoing about this via a rather circuitous route involving the Scottish courts. The UK
government has opposed this at every stage, but the courts have not.
- once the A50 date has been reached, then the Withdrawal Agreement kicks in

- The Withdrawal Agreement is the current contentious issue before Parliament
- it is the transition arrangement that will govern UK/EU relations for several years until future relationship
terms are determined eg trade etc
- it is the result of lots of work that both sides have negotiated, and it's basically in its final form
with very little, if any, room for modification
- it needs to be ratified by the UK Parliament and the EU27 to come into force
- the WA has provisions for the transition arrangements it contains to be extended (actually as
part of the text it can potentially extended to any date that fits the form 31st December 20XX)
- the WA isn't exactly "business as usual" but it's not so wildly different
- part of the WA sets out the backstop

- the backstop is the really contentious part
- it's the part that safeguards the interests of the Republic of Ireland, an ongoing EU member
- it is the default agreement if it all goes tits-up
- this is the bit where various virtual borders might have to change if there's no long-term
agreement

Fair?

Edit: Damn, that formatting looked better before it posted

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 11-16-2018 at 09:10 PM.
  #153  
Old 11-17-2018, 01:44 AM
williambaskerville williambaskerville is offline
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Originally Posted by Baron Greenback View Post
I think this is a fair summary of the current position (correct me where I'm wrong):

- the Article 50 deadline date of the UK leaving the EU is fixed in law, at two years after invocation
- it is however extensible by agreement with the EU27
- an extension can be requested by any EU27 member eg Ireland, not just the UK
- it's possible that the invocation can be unilaterally revoked by the UK, and there's a court case
ongoing about this via a rather circuitous route involving the Scottish courts. The UK
government has opposed this at every stage, but the courts have not.
- once the A50 date has been reached, then the Withdrawal Agreement kicks in

- The Withdrawal Agreement is the current contentious issue before Parliament
- it is the transition arrangement that will govern UK/EU relations for several years until future relationship
terms are determined eg trade etc
- it is the result of lots of work that both sides have negotiated, and it's basically in its final form
with very little, if any, room for modification
- it needs to be ratified by the UK Parliament and the EU27 to come into force
- the WA has provisions for the transition arrangements it contains to be extended (actually as
part of the text it can potentially extended to any date that fits the form 31st December 20XX)
- the WA isn't exactly "business as usual" but it's not so wildly different
- part of the WA sets out the backstop

- the backstop is the really contentious part
- it's the part that safeguards the interests of the Republic of Ireland, an ongoing EU member
- it is the default agreement if it all goes tits-up
- this is the bit where various virtual borders might have to change if there's no long-term
agreement

Fair?

Edit: Damn, that formatting looked better before it posted
Largely fair, except that the backdrop is as much to protect the interests of Northern Ireland. Leaving aside the issue of a possible return to violence, 34% of NI's exports go to the Republic.
  #154  
Old 11-17-2018, 02:08 AM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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But the trouble is that after going through all this process there will be little or no appetite in the 27 to accommodate any more special arrangements for us.
No special arrangements, just status quo ante. Yesterday Tusk indicated withdrawing Article 50 was possible. It would certainly be the simplest solution.

Last edited by Malden Capell; 11-17-2018 at 02:09 AM.
  #155  
Old 11-17-2018, 02:36 AM
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I broadly agree with the Baron’s summary, accepting the point about the backstop being in all of Ireland’s interests, and quibbling that theoretically it would be possible for a materially different withdrawal agreement, if only anyone had any bright ideas.

So what are the implications? In my opinion, the practicalities of process rule out a lot of hypothetical outcomes. Simplifying for the sake of brevity:

The UK will not crash out of the EU without a deal next spring. In practice, there is almost no scope for that to happen ‘by default’, and there is no scope for this Parliament (or the next) to have a majority of MPs who favour ‘no deal’.

While in theory, Parliament could decide to cancel Brexit before the Article 50 process ends, in practice it won’t. The committed Remainers who would have to work very hard to achieve this, will all conclude that it will be easier and more likely to cancel Brexit from the transitional period.

This withdrawal agreement gets passed. I think this is more likely than not. It’s a terrible deal, but probably as good as any other. No MP will be happy voting for it, but no one will propose a better alternative, and few MPs will be willing to accept responsibility for no deal. Which leads neatly on to the fourth possibility.

Brexit day is delayed - that is the Article 50 period is extended. If Parliament won’t accept this withdrawal agreement, won’t propose another, and won’t accept ‘no deal’, then the EU will graciously allow the period to run on. Ultimately, Parliament will have to accept a withdrawal agreement, most likely the one on the table now. The EU won’t throw Britain out unless Parliament rallies around a cunning plan to exploit the delay to Britain’s advantage. But if Parliament reaches a consensus then there wiould be no need to delay.

So at some point, probably next spring, the UK will enter a transitional period much like the one Theresa May has single handedly negotiated. (I seem to be in the tiny minority who considers her to be a politician of exceptional character and ability.)

When the transitional period ends, I think the outcomes for Great Britain are, in descending order of probability:

Brexit in name only
Remain on previous terms
Canada style free trade agreement
Remain on new terms.

The fourth appears as a possible (if unlikely) outcome for the first time. It involves UK adherence to all EU social legislation, membership of the euro, membership of Schengen, sensible financial contributions. A boy can dream....

The likely outcomes for Northern Ireland are:

Effective Reunification while maintaining the pretence of the Union
Explicit Reunification
A hard border with civil unrest
A hard border with the recommencement of the armed struggle

The first being a relatively small development of the status quo ante - all the current bluster about the integrity of the UK seems to me to overlook the reality of the last few decades.

All in my humble opinion!
  #156  
Old 11-17-2018, 06:48 AM
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The first being a relatively small development of the status quo ante - all the current bluster about the integrity of the UK seems to me to overlook the reality of the last few decades.
I disagree. The majority of the Northern Irish do not wish union with Southern Ireland. The simple solution is to let NI and SI sort out the border issue themselves.
  #157  
Old 11-17-2018, 07:46 AM
Staggerlee Staggerlee is offline
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Did she (May) seriously name drop Geoff Boycott? AKA the most selfish batsman to every play the game. Guy who once helped lose a World Cup final by being so ridiculously slow?
Who was once dropped for being too slow while batting? Who was sacked as captain after a revolt?
Now if she had said Peter May, she would have had a point.
Not being a cricket fan, the only thing I know Geoffrey Boycott for is old-school paternalistic racism. So probably a suitable Brexit role-model, thinking about it.
  #158  
Old 11-17-2018, 08:44 AM
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I disagree. The majority of the Northern Irish do not wish union with Southern Ireland. The simple solution is to let NI and SI sort out the border issue themselves.
Simple as in the simplistic solution.

the entities sub-national can not decide on the national border issues, if they do, then they in effect are becoming national sovereigns.

And that seems to be a political problem for your sovereign and the peace agreements.

but if you wish to reignite a civil war, it is probably an excellent approach.
  #159  
Old 11-17-2018, 10:26 AM
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Simple as in the simplistic solution.
No, just simple.

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the entities sub-national can not decide on the national border issues, if they do, then they in effect are becoming national sovereigns.
The EU has the principle of subsidiarity and the two would be negotiating on behalf of the rest.
  #160  
Old 11-17-2018, 12:52 PM
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I disagree. The majority of the Northern Irish do not wish union with Southern Ireland. The simple solution is to let NI and SI sort out the border issue themselves.
What exactly do you disagree with me about?

Bearing in mind that:

1 Northern Ireland is currently in a political union with the Republic and seems happier than it has ever been
2 the majority in NI voted decisively in the 2016 referendum to stay in that union
3 left to themselves to ‘sort out’ the border issue, the Irish would presumably agree that the UK would stay in the EU, thus resolving the ‘Irish’ border issue. Is that the solution you are proposing (if so you have my full support)?

You’ll also note that my suggestion for the most likely outcome for NI is in line with the proposed withdrawal agreement now placed before Parliament by a government comprised, if I remember correctly, by the party you support?
  #161  
Old 11-17-2018, 01:05 PM
williambaskerville williambaskerville is offline
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No, just simple.



The EU has the principle of subsidiarity and the two would be negotiating on behalf of the rest.
You're aware that the NI devolved administration hasn't existed since March 2017, yes ? Apart from all the other entirely obvious reasons that make this totally unworkable, who exactly would Dublin negotiate with ? The Ulster Farmer's Union ?

And if the NI Assembly was sitting, it would be in utter,unbreakable deadlock about post EU borders. The Nationalists would propose a totally open North-South border, and East-West restrictions, the Unionists would propose the reverse, and each side would perpetually vote Petitions of Concern and block the other side.
  #162  
Old 11-17-2018, 06:30 PM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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Quartz, you want it to be simple. It's okay, really, I understand. I want lots of things to be simple too.
  #163  
Old 11-17-2018, 08:01 PM
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Ireland is a dedicated member of the EU and, like many smaller economies, has benefited greatly from its membership. There will be a border between the EU and UK and the land border runs across Northern Ireland. It requires some way of checking goods and people crossing the border. The borders between EU member states are pretty very open. Whereas the borders between the EU and non-EU states required customs and police checks. Put that in place between Ireland and Northern Ireland and the worry is that they will become the target for terrorist attack from Irish Republican groups. Very easy for that to escalate the Troubles in Northern Ireland to return.
As someone trying to catch-up rather belatedly on the Brexit issue, can you explain to me (or provide a link that does) why it necessarily follows that the 'Troubles' will arise again with such a change to the border.
  #164  
Old 11-17-2018, 08:41 PM
Northern Piper Northern Piper is offline
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My understanding is that the "hard border" that used to exist between NI and the Republic, with armed custom guards, was a major point of contention, emphasising the division of Ireland removing the hard border was a major step in the peace accord. Re-creating it would not necessarily re-ignite the troubles, but would be a major retrograde step.

But, that's just my impression. Would love to hear from Irish posters about it.
  #165  
Old 11-17-2018, 08:43 PM
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Brexit - general discussion thread

Which leads to a question: has the Irish government weighed in on the WA? Presumably they would have been heavily involved in the negotiations from the EU side, since this is such an important issue?

Last edited by Northern Piper; 11-17-2018 at 08:44 PM.
  #166  
Old 11-17-2018, 10:14 PM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
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As someone trying to catch-up rather belatedly on the Brexit issue, can you explain to me (or provide a link that does) why it necessarily follows that the 'Troubles' will arise again with such a change to the border.
Because the Troubles were settled by the Good Friday Agreement and this was a constitutional settlement whereby both the Irish and UK constitution were altered to recognise cross border institutions and the creation of a power sharing devolved assembly in Northern Ireland between the Unionists and the Republicans. There are still fringe paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland and the return of a guarded, secure border with customs checks that are required by the EU would be target for Republican groups, should political tensions rise in the Northern Ireland. Moreover May relies in the votes of the Democratic Unionist Party in NI to stay in power and they have strong objections to an EU border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK as was suggested by the EU. There is also the Common travel Area that exists between the UK and Ireland within the EU. Both countries would want to retain that. The NI Assembly is in deadlock and has not been functioning for some time now. While it is peaceful, the political system is not working.

The Irish and UK governments are very sensitive about this. Both sides expended huge political and financial resources coming to a settlement that delivered peace in Northern Ireland after decades of conflict. Neither side wants to open up this constitutional fault line because of Brexit.

It is recognised that this conundrum cannot be solved in the time available. So May has provided a temporary solution that allows the UK to be able to claim that it has left the EU but still remain in a customs arrangement that looks very like it is still part of the EU so requires no border for the time being.

It is a temporary fudge, a compromise and every side can find fault with it (except maybe Ireland) but no-one has a better idea. As it stands it looks very much like still being in EU as far as a customs border is concerned, much to the consternation of the Brexiteers, they will have to wait a while for these troublesome details to be resolved.
  #167  
Old 11-18-2018, 04:17 AM
williambaskerville williambaskerville is offline
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As someone trying to catch-up rather belatedly on the Brexit issue, can you explain to me (or provide a link that does) why it necessarily follows that the 'Troubles' will arise again with such a change to the border.
I don't disagree with anything filmstar_en wrote :- I would just add the mere possibility of the idiots going back to bombing and killing is the worst thing that could happen on this island this century.

I am Irish :- I voted to relinquish our Constitutional claim on the North for a mature, settled relationship where noone got killed. I was happy with that vote. Now total mediocrities and morons have pushed their masturbatory fantasies to the point where my island's settled peace is threatened.

Last edited by williambaskerville; 11-18-2018 at 04:18 AM.
  #168  
Old 11-18-2018, 05:30 AM
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There is the further point that the Good Friday Agreement is enshrined in both national and international law, so aside from the estimating the risks of creating a series of border control points as targets for terrorists, to do anything that contravenes the GFA's commitments is a whole heap of legal trouble for all concerned, so yes, the whole business of the "backstop" has involved a great deal of input from the Republic. Everyone else in the EU would just as soon not have had to deal with the question at all.
  #169  
Old 11-18-2018, 09:25 PM
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My understanding is that the "hard border" that used to exist between NI and the Republic, with armed custom guards, was a major point of contention, emphasising the division of Ireland removing the hard border was a major step in the peace accord. Re-creating it would not necessarily re-ignite the troubles, but would be a major retrograde step.

But, that's just my impression. Would love to hear from Irish posters about it.
Essentially, yes.

NI contains two communities; those - the majority - who identify first and foremost as British, and those who identify first and foremost as Irish.

The key to the peace settlement has been to avoid compelling people to choose between one or other identity, and to afford equal respect, validation and accommodation to both - "parity of esteem" is the buzz-word for this.

In this regard shared EU membership has been hugely helpful, since it tends to erode the distinctions between different nationalities and different territories that would normally apply. And Brexit, of its very nature, threatens this.

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't actually say, in as many words, that there is to be no hard border between NI and the Republic. That's because, by the time the GFA was negotiated, there was already no hard border in Ireland; it had been progressively eliminated by common EU travel arrangements, the European Customs Union, the Single Market. The things that would normally need to be controlled at a border did not need to be controlled at the RoI/NI border because of these shared arrangements. The result was that British-identifying NI residents were not separated from their compatriots (in Great Britain) by any kind of border control, and Irish-identifying NI residents were similarly not separated from their compatriots in the Republic. And this helped to create and sustain the climate in which the GFA could be negotiated, agreed and made operational.

So reinstating border controls at this point doesn't so much violate the terms of the GFA as cut away the ground on which it has been constructed.

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Which leads to a question: has the Irish government weighed in on the WA? Presumably they would have been heavily involved in the negotiations from the EU side, since this is such an important issue?
Yes. Re-erecting divisions between Irish people in NI and RoI obviously doesn't affect only Irish people in NI. This is an issue of huge significance for RoI, and RoI is of course a continuing member state of the Union, so the Union is attentive to its vital interests. (Brexit in fact creates a situation in which the EU is highly incentivized to desmonstrate that it protects the concerns and interests of its members.) Ireland played a large role in drawing this issue to the attention of the EU, and it's acknowledged on all sides that, on this particular issue, the EU won't make a deal with the UK except on terms to which the Irish government assents. There is close and continuing liaison between the European officials concerned and the Irish government.
  #170  
Old 11-18-2018, 09:46 PM
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  #171  
Old 11-18-2018, 10:02 PM
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No, just simple.



The EU has the principle of subsidiarity and the two would be negotiating on behalf of the rest.
The principle of subsidiarity is not that decisions are made by a lower-level entity "on behalf of the rest". It's that decisions should be made at the lowest appropriate level.

"Appropriate" is the key word here. The NI/RoI border isn't just a border between NI and the RoI. It's also a border between the EU and the UK. Any goods that cross from NI into RoI can circulate freely throughout the Union. Any goods crossing the other way can circulate freely throughout the UK. A decision not to police the NI border from the UK side is not a decision to forego NI customs revenue for goods imported into NI; it's a decision to forego UK customs revenue from goods imported into the UK via NI. A decision not to apply migration controls at the NI border is not a decision to allow the world free entry into NI; it's a decision to allow the world free entry into the UK via NI. And so forth. And similar considerations apply from the EU side.

So, it isn't appropriate that this border be regulated by the NI institutions and the RoI institutions. The concerns and interests of larger communities are involved here. The principle of subsidiarity would say that the question shouldn't be handed by the NI and RoI authorities, but at a higher level.
  #172  
Old 11-18-2018, 11:17 PM
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There were some news articles last spring that Irish and British gov't reps were each visiting the US-Canada border crossings in the Detroit and Niagara regions, to check out the "world's longest undefended border" and see if it could be a model.

The Taoiseach made a trip and flatly rejected it. Said that it wasn't a military border, but it was a "hard border" - with armed customs and immigration guards on both sides. Not a model for post-Brexit.
  #173  
Old 11-18-2018, 11:19 PM
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Every year or two.
  #174  
Old 11-19-2018, 05:33 AM
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3 left to themselves to ‘sort out’ the border issue, the Irish would presumably agree that the UK would stay in the EU, thus resolving the ‘Irish’ border issue. Is that the solution you are proposing (if so you have my full support)?
That's a presumption too far.

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You’ll also note that my suggestion for the most likely outcome for NI is in line with the proposed withdrawal agreement now placed before Parliament by a government comprised, if I remember correctly, by the party you support?
I voted tactically in 2017. Don't confuse voting against the SNP with supporting the Tories. And the SNP candidate was a useless waste of space anyway.
  #175  
Old 11-19-2018, 11:50 AM
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OK, have we got to the point where we can call the ERG a pathetic bunch of posturing lily-livered shitebags? Because I really want to call the ERG a pathetic bunch of posturing lily-livered shitebags and I sort of feel that the time at which I'm fully justified in doing so is fast upon us.

Since Wednesday we've had to endure the dis-edifying spectacle of Rees-Mogg and Baker et. al. strutting round like cocks of the parliamentary walk, braying about how rebellion was brewing, and May had better reflect on her position, and they didn't want to take a swing at the leader but for two pins they would, and they were a race-car in the red and you didn't want to mess with a race-car in the red etc. etc. et bloody cetera, with Rees-Mogg even going so far as to hold a press conference to commemmorate the event of him handing in his fucking letter to the 1922 committee. Speculation has been, as the clowns would have it, rife. Any minute now, the last letter would go in, Brady would announce a vote of no confidence, and we'd be off to the races.

Except... it didn't happen on Thursday. Then it didn't happen on Friday. Then we heard that ERG members were very sensibly going home for the weekend to talk to their constituency chairs in order to sound out the local party before this momentous decision but that by golly, come Monday the letters would be in, the chips would be down, the balloon would go up and the cows would come home.

And here we are, almost 5pm and... nada. Not even a whimper, far less a bang. Now there are mutterings that the real trigger point is the Parliamentary vote and if May lets it go that far, well, JRMs a peacable man but you can push a chap just too far you know, blah, blah, moan, moan, moan.

So, am I being premature? Might the next ten minutes make the foregoing look foolish indeed? Or are the ERG a pathetic bunch of posturing lily-livered shitebags who have shot their wad early and whom can choose to ignore or laugh at as she sees fit?
  #176  
Old 11-19-2018, 11:53 AM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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There were some news articles last spring that Irish and British gov't reps were each visiting the US-Canada border crossings in the Detroit and Niagara regions, to check out the "world's longest undefended border" and see if it could be a model.

The Taoiseach made a trip and flatly rejected it. Said that it wasn't a military border, but it was a "hard border" - with armed customs and immigration guards on both sides. Not a model for post-Brexit.
Interesting - I hadn't heard that. The few times I've crossed the border from the US into Canada, even since 9-11, I've essentially been waved through, but there are certainly armed guards on both sides if any serious shit goes down.
  #177  
Old 11-19-2018, 11:59 AM
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So, am I being premature? Might the next ten minutes make the foregoing look foolish indeed? Or are the ERG a pathetic bunch of posturing lily-livered shitebags who have shot their wad early and whom can choose to ignore or laugh at as she sees fit?
The missing word between "and" and "whom" should be "May" - although "all of us" would also fit.

Just seen two tweets from BBC Correspondent:

1) Two more letters in we hear - Theresa Villiers and Philip Hollobone
2) Theresa Villiers apparently HASN'T submitted her letter - very happy to make clear.

The hat/cattle ratio on the ERG remains distinctly unimpressive
  #178  
Old 11-19-2018, 12:31 PM
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Vocab point, please?

"ERG" means ... ?
  #179  
Old 11-19-2018, 12:35 PM
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Baron Greenback Baron Greenback is offline
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Vocab point, please?

"ERG" means ... ?
European Research Group - the name the most ardent Tory Brexiteers have given themselves. I'm not sure how much actual research they've done, mind.

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 11-19-2018 at 12:36 PM.
  #180  
Old 11-19-2018, 01:39 PM
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These people think they could negotiate a better deal if they were in charge yet they can't even organise a letter writing campaign.


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  #181  
Old 11-19-2018, 01:50 PM
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Is there a deadline for letters to the Committee?
  #182  
Old 11-19-2018, 02:20 PM
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Is there a deadline for letters to the Committee?
It's an open-ended threshold, currently set at 48 letters. Apparently once the threshold is reached the Chair of the 1922 will contact all the letter writers to confirm their intentions - after all some of the letters could be quite old. From the outside it seems quite a murky process but the Conservative Party, like all political parties in the UK, operates on private club rules, so they can do whatever they want really.

Last edited by Baron Greenback; 11-19-2018 at 02:20 PM.
  #183  
Old 11-19-2018, 06:09 PM
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OK, have we got to the point where we can call the ERG a pathetic bunch of posturing lily-livered shitebags?
Pretty much. But then you could say the same about most of the rest of the members of the House of Commons.
  #184  
Old 11-19-2018, 09:45 PM
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UDS, thank you for those detailed posts on the Irish border issue. Very helpful in understanding the concerns.
  #185  
Old 11-20-2018, 02:10 AM
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GreenWyvern GreenWyvern is online now
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The reason May will continue in power is simply that there's no clear candidate to replace her.

Boris Johnson? Jacob Rees-Mogg? Michael Gove? David Davis? Andrea Leadsom? Amber Rudd? None of them can muster more than a handful of supporters among Tory MPs. There is no general feeling that any of them could do a better job than May. And any change of leadership at this stage would itself be a major problem.

So they'll stick to the principle
Always keep a-hold of Nurse
For fear of finding something worse.
  #186  
Old 11-20-2018, 03:48 AM
Malden Capell Malden Capell is offline
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Do we expect Parliament to acceot the deal, given the CBI seems to have endorsed it?


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  #187  
Old 11-20-2018, 04:23 AM
UDS UDS is offline
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Originally Posted by Malden Capell View Post
Do we expect Parliament to acceot the deal, given the CBI seems to have endorsed it?
Time will tell. But the concerns of industry seem to carry little weight with the ultra-brexiters, so I don't think the CBI endorsement (which was not in the least surprising) will be decisive.

A distinct possibility is that Parliament will reject the deal at the first time of asking, but early in the new year, after experiencing panic in the financial markets and economic stresses caused by businesses activating no-deal contingency plans, Parliament will accept it subject to a few cosmetic tweaks so that honour can be satisfied. That, for what it's worth, is my sense of the most likely course. Or, at least, slightly more likely than either a general election, a further referendum or a crash-out Brexit. The evident inability of the ERG to launch its putsch against May stiffens my sense a little; they are a noisy but ineffective shower.

But since my sense was also that the 2016 Brexit referendum would be lost and Clinton would be elected, you might not want to place too much reliance on it.
  #188  
Old 11-20-2018, 07:21 AM
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Spain is threatening to veto the Brexit deal over Gibraltar.

From the BBC:

Quote:
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has said Spain will reject the draft Brexit withdrawal deal without a clarification of the text on future talks on the status of Gibraltar.
...
"As things stand today if there are no changes regarding Gibraltar, Spain will vote no on Brexit," said Mr Sánchez.

Spain is not the only EU country unhappy with the deal. From the Guardian yesterday:

Quote:
Member states are also not happy that the UK has been given a customs union in the withdrawal agreement without strict enough conditions to ensure the European economy cannot be undercut.

France is among those that also want a guarantee of a satisfactory agreement for European fishermen who work in British waters possibly in the political declaration, having not achieved that goal in the withdrawal agreement.

The EU is looking at publishing a series of side-declarations to the main political declaration in an attempt to set out its stall on the most contentious areas, in a move that could thwart May’s plans to sell her the package to MPs at home.

France, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark and Germany, also want tough “level playing field” commitments from the UK, such as dynamic alignment with the EU’s climate change and environment directives.

So it's not a done deal from the EU side. There is still plenty of negotiating to be done - all of which will make it more difficult to get it through the UK Parliament.
  #189  
Old 11-20-2018, 07:29 AM
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For those interested, there's a Brexit quiz to see which deal you would prefer.
  #190  
Old 11-20-2018, 07:55 AM
Stanislaus Stanislaus is online now
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Pretty much. But then you could say the same about most of the rest of the members of the House of Commons.
As and when they make a complete spectacle of themselves, I likely will. But it's generalising like that has the effect of letting the ERG off the hook for the specific, recent, much-publicised clown show they've demanded we pay attention to for the last week.
  #191  
Old 11-20-2018, 08:10 AM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
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This is still just the Withdrawal Agreement.

I think both sides know that the difficult horsetrading will come when negotiating the UK-EU trade deal that is intended to replace the current EU trading arrangements. There is scant mention of this in the WA. That will take years and you can expect all kinds of objections and delays from member states with some gripe will have their say.

The UK will be paying into the EU for the duration of the WA. No WA would means a sudden budget crisis for the EU to deal with that would have far more effect than these objections.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-one-b...ors-eu-budget/

If the EU could not authorise the WA or it does not get through the UK parliament it would all have to start again with a lot of frustration. It looks a lot more uncertain on the UK side.
  #192  
Old 11-20-2018, 10:03 AM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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Here's NPR on May and her Brexit woes: https://www.npr.org/2018/11/19/66914...ays-leadership
  #193  
Old 11-20-2018, 01:07 PM
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As and when they make a complete spectacle of themselves, I likely will.
Oh, I'm not disagreeing with you.
  #194  
Old 11-20-2018, 02:30 PM
Northern Piper Northern Piper is offline
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According to this article in the Express, not only has the Committee not received the necessary 48 letters, the chair has hinted that he's not received letters from some of the MPs who have been hinting in the press that they've sent in a letter.

So some hon. Members appear to be ... prevaricating ...
  #195  
Old 11-20-2018, 04:28 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is offline
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According to this article in the Express....
Linky?
  #196  
Old 11-20-2018, 06:34 PM
alphaboi867 alphaboi867 is offline
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For those interested, there's a Brexit quiz to see which deal you would prefer.
I'm American, but took it out of curiosity. I got an 86% match for Remain, 77% for Norway, 48% for the current deal, 38% for Canada Plus, and 22% for No Deal.

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  #197  
Old 11-20-2018, 06:41 PM
Dewey Finn Dewey Finn is offline
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I also took the survey, and while I can't remember the exact numbers, my highest match was for the Norway Plan. (Also an American.)
  #198  
Old 11-20-2018, 08:05 PM
UDS UDS is offline
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Spain is threatening to veto the Brexit deal over Gibraltar..
Spain doesn't have a veto over the Withdrawal Agreement now being discussed.

They've been promised (by the EU) a veto over the application to Gibraltar of the future relationship agreement (talks about which have barely commenced).

This is a political commitment by the EU, not an entrenched legal right. Their current position is that they'd like to see this written into the withdrawal agreement, which would (a) turn it into a legally enforceable right, and (b) make it binding on the UK as well as on the EU.

If they don't get their way on this (and they probably won't) they are threatening to vote against the Withdrawal Agreement. But that won't scupper it; on the EU side, the Withdrawal Agreement needs approval by a qualified majority of the member states; it doesn't need unanimous agreement. The Spaniards know this, which is why voting against the WA allows them to register the strength of their concern and put down a marker for the future relationship discussions, but without derailing the entire process at this point.

Legally, only one country can torpedo the Withdrawal Agreement on its own: the UK.

Politically, one other country can do so: Ireland. Unlike the Spanish, the Irish have been promised a veto over the Withdrawal Agreement of it fails to contain terms which will prevent a hard border in Ireland. It's unlikely that the Irish will have to deploy the veto, however, since the EU negotiations have been firm all along that they won't agree terms of any draft Withdrawal Agreement that don't include this.
  #199  
Old 11-20-2018, 08:19 PM
Northern Piper Northern Piper is offline
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Brexit - general discussion thread

Here's the link re letters to Committee of 1922

https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...ee-brexit-news

Last edited by Northern Piper; 11-20-2018 at 08:21 PM.
  #200  
Old 11-20-2018, 09:17 PM
UltraVires UltraVires is online now
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American: I got 83% no deal, 78% Canada Plus, 65% Government's Deal, 30% Norway Deal, and 19% Remain.

Some of those questions amazed me. Why wouldn't a sovereign country like the UK want absolute authority to conduct activities within their own borders and not pay for EU domination?

Why can't the EU simply be a free trade zone without all of the extra bureaucracy? The U.S. would vote such a thing down 90-10.

Sorry for the hijack.
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