Straight Dope Message Board

[John Mace]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

Get the nothingburger combo, it's a better deal.

GOP apologists will be dancing in the streets, this particular indictment doesn't seem to be campaign related. I'm sure this is the first of many indictments to many people, some of which will be campaign related and some of which will not.

Oh, yeah. This is going to drag out and no the fun for the GOP sooner or later. 101

[Blank Slate]

That's a lot of felonies. I wonder what Manafort might have to offer in a deal. 102

[lazybratsche]

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Link: https://assets.documentcloud.org/doc...nt-Offense.pdf

Whelp, I'm not getting any work done today.

The TL;DR seems to be that Papadopoulos plead guilty to lying to the FBI about not having any substantial contacts with Russia. In reality, he was involved in several contacts between the Trump campaign and Russians with government connections, including discussions with "Putin's niece" "to arrange a meeting between between us and the Russian leadership". 103

[Snarky_Kong]

Originally Posted by lazybratsche

Whelp, I'm not getting any work done today.

The TL;DR seems to be that Papadopoulos plead guilty to lying to the FBI about not having any substantial contacts with Russia. In reality, he was involved in several contacts between the Trump campaign and Russians with government connections, including discussions with "Putin's niece" "to arrange a meeting between between us and the Russian leadership".

And the rest of the campaign was aware of this. Depending on who the other members of the campaign are, that means there were a shit ton of lies told be other campaign members too. Depending on who they told them to, those would be crimes as well. 104

[RTFirefly]

Originally Posted by John Mace

So, you're enjoying some relish on your "nothing burger"?

I like mine with lettuce and tomato
Heinz 57 and french fried potatoes
Big kosher pickle and a cold draft beer
Well, Good God Almighty which way do I steer

105

[Morgenstern]

Well, Manafort looks guilty. Plus he's a Republican. He's doomed until Trump pardons him next week.
Anyone offering odds on the pardon? 106

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by Morgenstern

Well, Manafort looks guilty. Plus he's a Republican. He's doomed until Trump pardons him next week.
Anyone offering odds on the pardon?

Don't think so. Manafort is already solidly under the bus. 107

[RTFirefly]

Originally Posted by John Mace

So, you're enjoying some relish on your "nothing burger"?

Originally Posted by RTFirefly

I like mine with lettuce and tomato
Heinz 57 and french fried potatoes
Big kosher pickle and a cold draft beer
Well, Good God Almighty which way do I steer

Speaking of which, this morning, Fox News is covering the Emoji Cheeseburger crisis at Google. Seriously.

It'll be interesting to see how Fox News tries to play this, and how much they try to simply not cover it. I'd love to see stats on how much time each of the nets spent on Manafort this morning. 108

[Richard Parker]

Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic

Don't think so. Manafort is already solidly under the bus.

Oh, a blanket pardon is still coming. I'd say...60% chance. 109

[Aspenglow]

Originally Posted by Morgenstern

Well, Manafort looks guilty. Plus he's a Republican. He's doomed until Trump pardons him next week.
Anyone offering odds on the pardon?

I just don't think that pardon -- or any other -- would ultimately stand. A pardon offered in the commission of a felony, meaning obstruction, would not be a proper pardon. The issue hasn't been litigated but it would be, with a fairly predictable outcome. Manafort must know this. Coupled with his vulnerability to state charges, Manafort really doesn't have a lot of reason to trust or rely on Trump, and Trump doesn't have any reason to pardon Manafort.

If Trump panics and hits the pardon button, I expect him to do it when Kushner or Ivanka is charged.

So re Manafort, I believe the odds are long. 110

[John DiFool]

Originally Posted by Chronos

But really, who has't laundered millions of dollars at some point in their lives?

I accidentally laundered two bucks in one of my laundry loads last month. What do I get? 111

[running coach]

On CNN, Jack Kingston first emphasized that Papadopoulos was never a member of the Administration and his role in the campaign was just an inflated title. 112

[Buck Godot]

Its interesting that Papadopoulos has already plead guilty. That presumably means he has a plea deal in his pocket, which (hope, hope, hope) may include spilling more beans. 113

[Richard Parker]

Originally Posted by running coach

On CNN, Jack Kingston first emphasized that Papadopoulos was never a member of the Administration and his role in the campaign was just an inflated title.

Not that his role in the campaign really matters given the content of the allegations, but he was one of like four names Trump could come up with when asked about his foreign policy team. 114

[Randolph]

Originally Posted by John DiFool

I accidentally laundered two bucks in one of my laundry loads last month. What do I get?

You're now in charge of rebuilding Puerto Rico's power grid. 115

[Snarky_Kong]

So basically the Trump campaign knew that Russian intelligence had dirt on Clinton before they changed the GOP platform to benefit Russia. Huh. 116

[Sunny Daze]

Originally Posted by John DiFool

I accidentally laundered two bucks in one of my laundry loads last month. What do I get?

Oh sure, done that lots of times. I've even laundered other peoples money. 117

[Richard Parker]

Does this mean the Trump campaign knew that Podesta had been hacked before the FBI and Podesta knew? 118

[Morgenstern]

Originally Posted by Aspenglow

I just don't think that pardon -- or any other -- would ultimately stand. A pardon offered in the commission of a felony, meaning obstruction, would not be a proper pardon. The issue hasn't been litigated but it would be, with a fairly predictable outcome. Manafort must know this. Coupled with his vulnerability to state charges, Manafort really doesn't have a lot of reason to trust or rely on Trump, and Trump doesn't have any reason to pardon Manafort.

If Trump panics and hits the pardon button, I expect him to do it when Kushner or Ivanka is charged.

So re Manafort, I believe the odds are long.

Manafort is 68 or so. All he has to do is tie this up in an appeal process, whether it is related to a pardon or one of the charges. The appeal will probably outlive him and he knows it. A good choice to throw under the bus really. 119

[SteveG1]

Originally Posted by Bricker

Based on everything in the public record thus far, he's got no real way to do that.

Although . . .

. . . I'll direct your attention to earlier conversations on this board, in which several commentators asserted confidently that any time a foreign citizen contributed valuable information to a campaign, this was illegal.

You may remember that I disagreed, saying such a reading of the statute was violative f the First Amendment.

Now I am hearing reports that the "dossier" was prepared by a foreign citizen and used by the Clinton campaign against Trump.

I still say that such a use, if it indeed happened, would be perfectly legal and protected by the First Amendment.

Does anyone who felt it was illegal wish to revisit their analysis?

The funding for the dossier OPRIGINALLY came from conservative Republicans, not the Clinton camp. 120

[Richard Parker]

Originally Posted by Morgenstern

Manafort is 68 or so. All he has to do is tie this up in an appeal process, whether it is related to a pardon or one of the charges. The appeal will probably outlive him and he knows it. A good choice to throw under the bus really.

Appeals don't generally keep you out of prison. 121

[SteveG1]

Originally Posted by JohnT

My prediction: Trump is being indicted.

Only because if it does happen, I will be able to say "I CALLED IT!"

I hope he will be, along with his buddies. I'm hoping the indictments and (hopefully) arrests will convince the toads to turn on him, and I hope he goes to federal prison. 122

[Morgenstern]

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Appeals don't generally keep you out of prison.

Different it it's a non-violent felony. They will let you remain out and fight it. 123

[Defensive Indifference]

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

Does this mean the Trump campaign knew that Podesta had been hacked before the FBI and Podesta knew?

If so, would they have any legal obligation to report it? If a foreign agent offers you the fruits of a crime committed against a US person, and you keep that information to yourself, have you committed a crime? 124

[Richard Parker]

Originally Posted by Morgenstern

Different it it's a non-violent felony. They will let you remain out and fight it.

No, that's not generally what happens. There are exceptions, as with everything in the law, but you usually don't get to avoid serving a sentence just because you appeal. The legal standard for being released requires a showing that you're likely to win your appeal. Not going to happen here, IMO. 125

[Richard Parker]

Originally Posted by Bayard

If so, would they have any legal obligation to report it? If a foreign agent offers you the fruits of a crime committed against a US person, and you keep that information to yourself, have you committed a crime?

I doubt they have any criminal law obligation to report it. And much will turn on how detailed their information was. But knowledge of the hack and taking no action to inform anyone is certainly a form of collusion for the purposes of the political question of whether Trump helped Russia influence the election. 126

[Sunny Daze]

I must say, "conspiracy against the United States" has quite a ring to it.

Also amusing, Trump's tweets have started:

From the Trump
Sorry, but this is years ago, before Paul Manafort was part of the Trump campaign. But why aren't Crooked Hillary & the Dems the focus?????

And

Trump continues
....Also, there is NO COLLUSION!

127

[Aspenglow]

Originally Posted by Morgenstern

Different it it's a non-violent felony. They will let you remain out and fight it.

In my experience, which admittedly is not at the federal level, only once in nearly 20 years working in the court system. The fellow was granted bail on appeal for a child molest case due to his position in the community. He took the opportunity to molest another child in the intervening 2 years before the case was remanded for retrial.

So no, not common, irrespective of whether a violent or non-violent felony. At least not where I worked. 128

[Fiveyearlurker]

Just so we're clear, on day one we have an admission and guilty plea on the Trump campaign colluding with the Russians. And the campaign manager set to rot in jail unless he deals. Some situations are impossible to extricate oneself from without resorting to extreme measures, and I fear that begins on day one also. 129

[running coach]

And the sTrumpets on CNN are claiming "there's no evidence so it's over" and trying to take the discussion to Obama and Clinton. 130

[elucidator]

Mr Mueller is specifically empowered to follow threads which may, or may not, lead to further things. Like....oh, I dunno, grab something at random here....money laundering. As in, real estate deals that offer extraordinary returns on investment. Kind of returns that only happen to men of astonishing acumen and expertise. Or crooks.

And here is where I expect Il Douche will try to head him off at the pass. Trump will pretend that Mueller was not empowered to investigate such things, even though he clearly was, so long as the evidence arises out of his investigation. 'Course, if he does fire Mueller, then Mueller can just shrug and leave that pile of evidence just lying around, so that another state or federal investigator can pick it up.

Forfeiture, fines, liens, confiscation. Oh, my! Then let a subtle hint drop, a whisper, a wink, that if he weren't actually President any longer, maybe the hounds when not hound him quite so fervently, maybe a few of these problems might just wilt away. Can't keep all of that money, wouldn't be right, not the done thing. But maybe some. How much may depend on how quickly and sincerely he cooperates. Don't want to see him shopping for his dinner at Dollar Store.

Well, 'struth, I do, but I'm a vindictive and cruel sumbitch.

Sign right there, "Mr President". Justice Roberts and VP Pence are in the next room, with a Bible, all set to go. If you want to show the reporters your huge signature again, that will be fine. Or not, up to you. Mr. Trump.

Adios, motherfucker! 131

[Morgenstern]

Originally Posted by Aspenglow

In my experience, which admittedly is not at the federal level, only once in nearly 20 years working in the court system. The fellow was granted bail on appeal for a child molest case due to his position in the community. He took the opportunity to molest another child in the intervening 2 years before the case was remanded for retrial.

So no, not common, irrespective of whether a violent or non-violent felony. At least not where I worked.

Here, the Fed rule.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frap/rule_9

...(3) The court of appeals or one of its judges may order the defendant's release pending the disposition of the appeal. ... 132

[Fiveyearlurker]

Originally Posted by running coach

And the sTrumpets on CNN are claiming "there's no evidence so it's over" and trying to take the discussion to Obama and Clinton.

He was literally yelling "Whatabout". 133

[RTFirefly]

Originally Posted by Sunny Daze

I must say, "conspiracy against the United States" has quite a ring to it.

A nice ring, but it's more mundane than it sounds. Just that Manafort and Gates were allegedly working together to defraud agencies of the U.S. government. Mind you, that's still nontrivial, but 'Conspiracy against the United States' sounds more to us laypeople like a plot to overthrow or undermine the U.S. government. 134

[The Librarian]

Originally Posted by elucidator

Mr Mueller is specifically empowered to follow threads which may, or may not, lead to further things. Like....oh, I dunno, grab something at random here....money laundering. As in, real estate deals that offer extraordinary returns on investment. Kind of returns that only happen to men of astonishing acumen and expertise. Or crooks.

And here is where I expect Il Douche will try to head him off at the pass. Trump will pretend that Mueller was not empowered to investigate such things, even though he clearly was, so long as the evidence arises out of his investigation. 'Course, if he does fire Mueller, then Mueller can just shrug and leave that pile of evidence just lying around, so that another state or federal investigator can pick it up.

Forfeiture, fines, liens, confiscation. Oh, my! Then let a subtle hint drop, a whisper, a wink, that if he weren't actually President any longer, maybe the hounds when not hound him quite so fervently, maybe a few of these problems might just wilt away. Can't keep all of that money, wouldn't be right, not the done thing. But maybe some. How much may depend on how quickly and sincerely he cooperates. Don't want to see him shopping for his dinner at Dollar Store.

Well, 'struth, I do, but I'm a vindictive and cruel sumbitch.

Sign right there, "Mr President". Justice Roberts and VP Pence are in the next room, with a Bible, all set to go. If you want to show the reporters your huge signature again, that will be fine. Or not, up to you. Mr. Trump.

Adios, motherfucker!

To get rid of Trump, congress & senate will have to act. Unless that happen ;Trump will pardon all his cronies and find some way to get rid of Mueller. Every shred of decency has long ago left the man so there is really nothing stopping him. 135

[Aspenglow]

Originally Posted by Morgenstern

Here, the Fed rule.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/rules/frap/rule_9

...(3) The court of appeals or one of its judges may order the defendant's release pending the disposition of the appeal. ...

Oh, I agree they may. And thank you for sharing the rule. But that's not different than county courts. The question is, is it commonly done? 136

[elucidator]

Originally Posted by The Librarian

To get rid of Trump, congress & senate will have to act. Unless that happen ;Trump will pardon all his cronies and find some way to get rid of Mueller. Every shred of decency has long ago left the man so there is really nothing stopping him.

Nothing scares a rich guy like the prospect of becoming a poor one. Decency has long fled, true, but fear remains. 137

[ElvisL1ves]

There's also the fear of a federal PMITA prison, and for Trump it's the fear of being out of the public eye, but yeah, money is involved too. 138

[Ike Witt]

Originally Posted by John DiFool

I accidentally laundered two bucks in one of my laundry loads last month. What do I get?

How did you vote in the last election? 139

[asterion]

Originally Posted by John DiFool

I accidentally laundered two bucks in one of my laundry loads last month. What do I get?

Sightly cleaner money. Which is a good thing considering how filthy the money in circulation actually is.

I still don't see this getting to the Presidency any faster than Watergate did. 140

[RTFirefly]

At 12:38pm Eastern time, Fox News had a big "Credibility in Question" banner next to a pic of Mueller.

Hey Fox, the indictment is out there. (Two of them now, of course - the Manafort/Gates indictment, and the Papadopolous indictment.) Care to point out which particular items that you regard as being of questionable credibility?

Of course they don't. 141

[running coach]

Lyin' Sarah said the indictments and the lies Papadopoulos told have nothing to do with the Trump campaign and then pivoted to Clinton. 142

[Fiveyearlurker]

Originally Posted by running coach

Lyin' Sarah said the indictments and the lies Papadopoulos told have nothing to do with the Trump campaign and then pivoted to Clinton.

Her confidence level has dropped precipitously over the past few months. 143

[BigT]

Why do they keep acting like Clinton is still running? It is the easiest to rebut concept. "Why not Clinton?" Because she's not in office and has no influence. We're investigating the evil guy in charge, not the Sunday School teacher you didn't like. 144

[filmore]

I've heard that Manafort was laundering money by borrowing money from one Russian, buying a condo, then selling that condo to another Russian. It is often mentioned that the condos were in Trump properties, but does it matter where the condos were? I can't see how that implicates Trump in any way. Does the Trump Tower get a cut of all condo sales or something? 145

[John Mace]

Originally Posted by BigT

Why do they keep acting like Clinton is still running? It is the easiest to rebut concept. "Why not Clinton?" Because she's not in office and has no influence. We're investigating the evil guy in charge, not the Sunday School teacher you didn't like.

First of all, don't be so sure isn't still running. Second of all, there is no one else who is going to draw attention to better than Hillary. If she did something illegal (I don't think she did, but if), she would be vulnerable for prosecution. Third of all, his base supporters hate her more than anyone else. And, no we are not "investigating the evil guy in charge", although he may be or may come under investigation at some point. The investigation is much broader than Trump, if it even includes him at all. Not sure where you got that from. 146

[wonky]

Interesting take on the Manafort/Papadopoulos news from Seth Abramson: https://tttthreads.com/thread/924988111880417280 147

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by The Librarian

To get rid of Trump, congress & senate will have to act. Unless that happen ;Trump will pardon all his cronies and find some way to get rid of Mueller. Every shred of decency has long ago left the man so there is really nothing stopping him.

This.

Trump will stay as long as the political enablers keep him there. And while he's there, he'll inflict whatever damage on the country he feels like.

DJ Trump before family
Family before friends
Friends before rich members of the Party
Rich members of the party before any other members
Party before country 148

[Morgenstern]

Originally Posted by John Mace

First of all, don't be so sure isn't still running. ....

ANY party even considering the most remote of possibilities of her running deserves another rout at the hands of the Tangerine Turd. But then, I'm not seeing any real leadership in the Dem Party either. Someone, anyone? Bueller, you wanna run? 149

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic

This.

Trump will stay as long as the political enablers keep him there. And while he's there, he'll inflict whatever damage on the country he feels like.

DJ Trump before family
Family before friends
Friends before rich members of the Party
Rich members of the party before any other members
Party before country

I think his pecking order is:

DJT Himself
Money
Family
Other Whites
The Great Unwashed Masses 150