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Old 02-24-2020, 03:11 PM
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Does Pelosi have an October Surpise in the works?


I have no factual basis for wondering this, and it's probably just lingering impeachment letdown. But still:
  1. Throughout the fall, while the impeachment inquiry was building steam, we heard about financial (and other) revelations the Trump team was fighting in court
  2. Most of the early decisions went against Trump, whose team appealed further
  3. Rather than waiting out these appeals, House Democrats went ahead with impeachment on the relatively narrow scope of the Ukraine events
  4. Since impeachment failed to remove Trump we've heard next to nothing about his tax returns, the Deutsche Bank stuff, etc.
Why didn't the Dems wait?

My theory: Pelosi knew there was absolutely nothing that could come out that would make 20 R senators vote to convict, and anything related to the impeachment would be old news by November. But she knows (or is fairly confident) that once the Trump teams runs out of appeals, there is nuclear material in those financial records -- stuff that will reveal him as, if not an outright traitor, at least an unwttling dupe of Putin. Stuff that the Dem candidate can destroy him with.

Not getting my hopes up, but still. I can't believe with three-plus years of this administration Ukraine was the worst, most unlawful thing Trump has done. Am I delusional?
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Old 02-24-2020, 03:17 PM
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Yes. If anybody had a smoking gun, we'd have seen it already. There may be one out there somewhere, but if so, it remains undiscovered for now.

Last edited by Oakminster; 02-24-2020 at 03:19 PM.
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Old 02-24-2020, 03:21 PM
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Yes. If anybody had a smoking gun, we'd have seen it already. There may be one out there somewhere, but if so, it remains undiscovered for now.
Well, right, that's my point. Maybe I should have simply asked: Is there a smoking gun still tied up in court, and will we see it before November?
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Old 02-24-2020, 03:46 PM
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Well, right, that's my point. Maybe I should have simply asked: Is there a smoking gun still tied up in court, and will we see it before November?
Nope. The closer we get to the election, the more reluctant judges are likely to be to do something that would influence it. We're only about 8 months away from the election. Those legal cans are getting kicked down the road until after all that is over.
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:04 PM
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I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that Trump could do, or that anyone (especially a Democrat!) could accuse him of that would make one damn bit of difference.
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:08 PM
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I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that Trump could do, or that anyone (especially a Democrat!) could accuse him of that would make one damn bit of difference.
At least in my state, Trump could rape a nun on the White House lawn, and his base--including my Senator and Congresscritter, would blame the nun for being in Trump's reach.
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:11 PM
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At least in my state, Trump could rape a nun on the White House lawn, and his base--including my Senator and Congresscritter, would blame the nun for being in Trump's reach.
Oh I disagree, only Democrats rape. Rape doesn't exist in the Republican world.

(Did I go too far? I went too far, didn't I?)
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:16 PM
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there is nuclear material in those financial records -- stuff that will reveal him as, if not an outright traitor, at least an unwttling dupe of Putin. Stuff that the Dem candidate can destroy him with.

What is this "nuclear financial stuff" going to do that 13,000 Tweets, Ukraine Biden investigation, emoluments, Russia interference, firing Comey, Flynn resignation, Trump University, and other such things didn't?


We keep hearing this over and over again: "THIS is going to be what sinks Trump's presidency!" And then, "No, no, THIS is what will do it!"
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:41 PM
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What is this "nuclear financial stuff" going to do that 13,000 Tweets, Ukraine Biden investigation, emoluments, Russia interference, firing Comey, Flynn resignation, Trump University, and other such things didn't?


We keep hearing this over and over again: "THIS is going to be what sinks Trump's presidency!" And then, "No, no, THIS is what will do it!"
I've said similar things myself -- that Trump won't self-destruct. But what if there's, say, irrefutable evidence that he's hundreds of millions in debt to Russian mobsters? That wouldn't just be some blatant misbehavior. It would be evidence of a motivation for treason -- maybe not enough to convict, but certainly enough to make millions of R voters suspect they'd been had.
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:46 PM
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I am convinced that there is absolutely nothing that Trump could do, or that anyone (especially a Democrat!) could accuse him of that would make one damn bit of difference.
Yep. Because it worked so well last time ("grab 'em by the p*ssy").
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:53 PM
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I've said similar things myself -- that Trump won't self-destruct. But what if there's, say, irrefutable evidence that he's hundreds of millions in debt to Russian mobsters? That wouldn't just be some blatant misbehavior. It would be evidence of a motivation for treason -- maybe not enough to convict, but certainly enough to make millions of R voters suspect they'd been had.
Fake news! Who, on this green earth, that would be considered a credible source, could present evidence in any form (including the infamous pee tape), that would move the needle for his supporters? There is nobody that they would believe.
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Old 02-24-2020, 04:57 PM
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Fake news! Who, on this green earth, that would be considered a credible source, could present evidence in any form (including the infamous pee tape), that would move the needle for his supporters? There is nobody that they would believe.
Okay, maybe not, but I'm not asking Will Rs believe it? I'm asking, Is there even an "it" coming?

I'm really trying to grasp why they would have gone forward with the impeachment when it seemed like much more potent evidence of Trump misdeeds was a ruling away.
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Old 02-24-2020, 05:15 PM
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Not getting my hopes up, but still. I can't believe with three-plus years of this administration Ukraine was the worst, most unlawful thing Trump has done. Am I delusional?
It's a judgment call. I'd say that having his family foundation closed by New York State last year, because of taking charity money for his own use, was marginally worse.
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Old 02-24-2020, 06:08 PM
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Not getting my hopes up, but still. I can't believe with three-plus years of this administration Ukraine was the worst, most unlawful thing Trump has done. Am I delusional?
This was worse:

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trum...claims-1459388

Last edited by ChickenLegs; 02-24-2020 at 06:08 PM.
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Old 02-24-2020, 06:18 PM
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1) No, Pelosi doesn't have an October surprise up her sleeve.

2) What Trump and Barr are doing with DOJ right now certainly rivals the Ukraine extortion as possibly the worst thing Trump's done. We're moving into banana-republic territory here.

3) Kids in cages comes pretty close too: it's child abuse on an industrial scale. Thousands of children separated from their parents, tens of thousands cooped up in cages.
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Old 02-24-2020, 06:24 PM
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1) No, Pelosi doesn't have an October surprise up her sleeve.

2) What Trump and Barr are doing with DOJ right now certainly rivals the Ukraine extortion as possibly the worst thing Trump's done. We're moving into banana-republic territory here.

3) Kids in cages comes pretty close too: it's child abuse on an industrial scale. Thousands of children separated from their parents, tens of thousands cooped up in cages.
Kids in cages is the Obama administration
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Old 02-24-2020, 06:36 PM
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I've said similar things myself -- that Trump won't self-destruct. But what if there's, say, irrefutable evidence that he's hundreds of millions in debt to Russian mobsters? That wouldn't just be some blatant misbehavior. It would be evidence of a motivation for treason -- maybe not enough to convict, but certainly enough to make millions of R voters suspect they'd been had.
This would be spun as a good business decision.
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Old 02-24-2020, 06:45 PM
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If we all knew she had a surprise, it wouldn't be a surprise. However if we all think she doesn't have a surprise, then anything would be a surprise. So I guess we'll be surprised.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 02-24-2020 at 06:45 PM.
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:00 PM
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As others have said, I don't think an October Surprise is possible with this administration. We've seen an ongoing series of scandals and incompetence. Why would one more upset anyone who hasn't already been convinced?
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Old 02-24-2020, 07:59 PM
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I think it depends on the DeutschBank case. I listened to a report on NPR last week, they probably have the data that has been subpoened ready to go if the courts order it released, so that is something that could blow up real fast--maybe not a surprise, but the Bank was where Trump did most of his business when U.S. banks wouldn't make loans to him, and if there is going to be an "October surprise" it would come out of there. But I tend to agree with Oakminister above the courts will move quite deliberately indeed on this.

We shall see.
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Old 02-24-2020, 11:07 PM
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An October surprise would see his numbers rise 5 points.

Everything about Trump is baked in. A guy that's been a household name for 40 years running for president just doesn't happen very often.
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Old 02-25-2020, 07:11 AM
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This would be spun as a good business decision.


"Sure, he took money from Russian mobsters, but he never paid them back! That's like making them pay a massive fine! Isn't the President of the United States supposed to fine criminals for their crimes? Why are you on the side of the Russian Mobsters? Hey, everyone, the Democrats support Russian criminals, did you see that?!?"
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Old 02-25-2020, 08:05 AM
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I think it depends on the DeutschBank case. I listened to a report on NPR last week, they probably have the data that has been subpoened ready to go if the courts order it released, so that is something that could blow up real fast--maybe not a surprise, but the Bank was where Trump did most of his business when U.S. banks wouldn't make loans to him, and if there is going to be an "October surprise" it would come out of there. But I tend to agree with Oakminister above the courts will move quite deliberately indeed on this.

We shall see.
That story boggled my mind, too. Don't know whether it would upset trump devotees if all of it came out (probably not), but it would get a lot of other people's attention.
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Old 02-25-2020, 09:22 AM
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I think it depends on the DeutschBank case. I listened to a report on NPR last week, they probably have the data that has been subpoened ready to go if the courts order it released, so that is something that could blow up real fast--maybe not a surprise, but the Bank was where Trump did most of his business when U.S. banks wouldn't make loans to him, and if there is going to be an "October surprise" it would come out of there. But I tend to agree with Oakminister above the courts will move quite deliberately indeed on this.

We shall see.
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That story boggled my mind, too. Don't know whether it would upset trump devotees if all of it came out (probably not), but it would get a lot of other people's attention.
Is this a good link for the story you're talking about?

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/19/80719...rump-s-secrets
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Old 02-25-2020, 09:59 AM
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Is this a good link for the story you're talking about?

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/19/80719...rump-s-secrets
That's it. Worth the 35 minutes, IMHO.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:18 AM
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Well, right, that's my point. Maybe I should have simply asked: Is there a smoking gun still tied up in court, and will we see it before November?
If something is "tied up in court", that means there was some sort of filing with the court, right? Are all court filings public? If so, then no, there is no smoking gun in the courts as of now. Someone would have discovered it.
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Old 02-25-2020, 10:23 AM
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If something is "tied up in court", that means there was some sort of filing with the court, right? Are all court filings public? If so, then no, there is no smoking gun in the courts as of now. Someone would have discovered it.
The release of the documents is what's tied up in court. We can't see those documents until the cases involving them have been resolved. The documents are the potential smoking gun, not the cases themselves.
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Old 02-25-2020, 11:40 AM
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As others have said, I don't think an October Surprise is possible with this administration. We've seen an ongoing series of scandals and incompetence. Why would one more upset anyone who hasn't already been convinced?
Exactly. Everyone is now desensitized. It's like a toilet overflowing - you don't pay attention to a specific turd, you just want the water to stop.
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Old 02-25-2020, 11:58 AM
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The release of the documents is what's tied up in court. We can't see those documents until the cases involving them have been resolved. The documents are the potential smoking gun, not the cases themselves.
Got it, thanks.

So then to answer, I would not think Pelosi is deliberately holding back anything. Remember back in the Kavanaugh hearings, when Sen. Feinstein was given so much grief for holding onto a letter from Christine Blasey Ford? Pelosi would get the same kind of criticism, and would make the impeachment look even more political that some on the right already are sure it was. I don't think Pelosi would risk that, or would have left something out during impeachment if it was huge.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:17 PM
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I think the Dems shot their bolt with the impeachment. If they had had anything, they would have brought it out during the hearings. If they find anything genuinely new, they can try impeachment again, but rehashing the last three years isn't new.

Maybe they will try something like the Bush National Guard memos, but that didn't work out so well last time.

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Old 02-25-2020, 12:48 PM
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Is this a good link for the story you're talking about?

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/19/80719...rump-s-secrets
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That's it. Worth the 35 minutes, IMHO.
So ... maybe ... if Deutsche Bank is finally allowed to release the subpeonaed records, investigators will be able to demonstrate that Trump and Kushner allowed Russians to launder money to move through their accounts?

Assuming that's true, it comes out in time, and can be coherently described, does it make a story that will move any needles in this election?

Who the fuck am I kidding?
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:03 PM
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So ... maybe ... if Deutsche Bank is finally allowed to release the subpeonaed records, investigators will be able to demonstrate that Trump and Kushner allowed Russians to launder money to move through their accounts?

Assuming that's true, it comes out in time, and can be coherently described, does it make a story that will move any needles in this election?

Who the fuck am I kidding?
Not me, as I don't believe Trump was ever involved in money laundering. But since you asked, I thought I'd answer.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:48 PM
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Not me, as I don't believe Trump was ever involved in money laundering. But since you asked, I thought I'd answer.
Oh, I believe he (or whoever actually handles his money) was involved. I just don't hold out hope that enough people will understand the issue (or give a shit) to impact the election.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:59 PM
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I just don't hold out hope that enough people will understand the issue (or give a shit) to impact the election.
Thatís the crux of the biscuit right there. Some shady dealings? Breaking some financial rules? No one is going to care or probably even understand the issue enough for it to make a difference.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:03 PM
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I have heard that Hunter Biden also had laundry and money. Why is no one looking into that? It's a disgrace.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:39 PM
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Trump has 100% without a doubt been involved in money laundering.

FinCEN Fines Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort $10 Million for Significant and Long Standing Anti-Money Laundering Violations

There's probably more stuff out there that we haven't seen, but it is a stone cold fact that Trump has been involved in money laundering.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:49 PM
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Are all court filings public?
No, they are not. Certain filings are made under seal, and not available to the public unless the judge rules otherwise. This is pretty common with financial details, documents dealing with abuse of children, medical information, etc.
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Old 02-25-2020, 02:55 PM
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Do you have a cite to that effect? That is, that Trump himself was involved in money laundering.

Your cite is from 2015 and doesn't mention anything that Trump himself did. TIA.

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Old 02-25-2020, 02:59 PM
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Trump has 100% without a doubt been involved in money laundering.

FinCEN Fines Trump Taj Mahal Casino Resort $10 Million for Significant and Long Standing Anti-Money Laundering Violations

There's probably more stuff out there that we haven't seen, but it is a stone cold fact that Trump has been involved in money laundering.
To be clear, I was referring to Trump and Kushner and Deutsche Bank as mentioned by Akaj being involved in some kind of money laundering scheme. And I don't agree that Trump was found to be involved as to the link you gave.

Last edited by Fiddle Peghead; 02-25-2020 at 03:02 PM.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:01 PM
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No, they are not. Certain filings are made under seal, and not available to the public unless the judge rules otherwise. This is pretty common with financial details, documents dealing with abuse of children, medical information, etc.
Thanks for the info. So to add to my previous answer, I don't think there is anything in such documents as you mention that Pelosi held back for an October surprise.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:07 PM
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And I don't agree that Trump was found to be involved as to the link you gave.
Your agreement is not required. Facts are facts.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:09 PM
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Do you have a cite to that effect?
Here you go.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:13 PM
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Your agreement is not required. Facts are facts.
You are correct on both counts.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:32 PM
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I must not have been clear - I was asking for a cite that "Trump has 100% without a doubt been involved in money laundering." Do you have a cite for that?

Regards,
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:35 PM
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I must not have been clear - I was asking for a cite that "Trump has 100% without a doubt been involved in money laundering." Do you have a cite for that?

Regards,
Shodan
Sure do. Link.
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Old 02-26-2020, 06:44 AM
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I'll take that as a no.

Regards.
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