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Old 02-29-2020, 07:23 PM
dtilque is offline
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Covid-19 at the conventions


Or at political rallies.

So far we've had 4 infections in the US which are not traceable to someone going to China or other places where there've been breakouts. So the virus is out in the community, spreading hither and yon. They've all been on the West Coast, but that doesn't mean the rest of the country is safe. These four are just the beginning; there should be plenty more all across the country in the next couple-three weeks.

Are presidential candidates going to have to stop holding rallies because of Covid 19? Cancel the conventions this summer? Hold the conventions via Skype?
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Old 02-29-2020, 08:15 PM
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I work in the trade show/convention business. I have already lost two gigs to COVID-19, one early May and one in late June. I expect to lose more.

Yes, one show I do is talking about no attendees but still having the presenters show up. The entire thing, every single session over 4 days, is already broadcast on the internet live and then available for later viewing on the company's website, so this would just mean that every session is done in an empty room instead of one filled with people.

I'm hoping they don't do that, because it would be a terrible trend for the industry.
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Old 02-29-2020, 08:22 PM
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No, no, and no.

The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.

At this point in time we cannot say how far coronavirus will spread, how infectious it is, or what the death rate is, but the best guess at this time is that it is about as bad or perhaps slightly worse than a typical flu season. It does not merit massive quarantines, travel shutdowns, or cancellation of almost all public events. It's true that some countries have gone that route anyway, but as more data becomes available it will become clearer that the danger has been exaggerated, and pressure will build to cancel such extreme measures.
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Old 02-29-2020, 08:32 PM
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The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated.
I agree it's greatly exaggerated. But people are starting to panic and that leads to bad decisions. France has cancelled all indoor events with more than 5000 people. If we did that here, they'd have to cancel the NBA and NHL seasons, or start playing in empty arenas.
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Old 02-29-2020, 10:28 PM
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The threat from coronavirus is greatly exaggerated. Thus far, worldwide, far more people have died from the flu than from coronavirus. Far more people have died from malaria than from the coronavirus. Far more people have died from a lot of causes than from coronavirus.
Overexaggerated? We don't know yet. Yes, many more people have died of flu, malaria, and other ailments - because MANY MANY MANY more people have been exposed to those. Death rates of flu are low while mortality of CoViD-19 is much higher as far as we can tell. But any estimation is tough because lack of transparency at political levels.

How far and fast can a pandemic spread? If we think markets possess "wisdom" and investors risk their money on data, not ideology, then this one looks really, really serious. We're what, two months into this? The US conventions are still what, over four and five months away? Much can happen by then.

Here's a wild-ass speculation. Dems are realistic and set their convention as online only. Few delegates are infected. GOPs, buoyed by White House insistence that the Dem-media plot is squashed and everything is just hunky-dory, especially with the Mexican border sealed, gather en-masse in Charlotte. Everybody is infected. Numbers of Tramp delegates die but he's nominated anyway. Big deal; as the crisis spirals into autumn, the election MUST be postponed. Mail-ballot states will object. Too bad.

Spreading the virus in the US population will be pretty effective voter suppression.
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Old 02-29-2020, 11:24 PM
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Overexaggerated? Big deal; as the crisis spirals into autumn, the election MUST be postponed. Mail-ballot states will object. Too bad.
The federal government has no Constitutional mechanism by which to "postpone the election", nor does it have anything to do with the process. Presidential elections occur at the state level.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:11 AM
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Spreading the virus in the US population will be pretty effective voter suppression.
If Covid-19 is still around in November, it might give Trump a slight vote boost, because rural areas with no lines or only short voting lines might not be afraid to show up to the polls, but in densely packed urban centers like Miami or Pittsburgh, people facing very long lines might be more afraid of virus contraction.
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Old 03-01-2020, 01:24 AM
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There is no infectious disease threat would keep me away from voting against Trump.
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Old 03-01-2020, 03:48 AM
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If Covid-19 is still around in November, it might give Trump a slight vote boost, because rural areas with no lines or only short voting lines might not be afraid to show up to the polls, but in densely packed urban centers like Miami or Pittsburgh, people facing very long lines might be more afraid of virus contraction.
Or, conversely, the epidemic will have already been through Miami and Pittsburgh and gone, so voters will show up, but because it was delayed getting to the rural areas by November lots of folks in the sticks are sick in bed and don't vote.

We just don't know what November will look like sitting here in March.
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Old 03-01-2020, 04:00 PM
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Could states cancel the elections and have their electors chosen by the state legislature? I see no reason why not unless the state constitution forbids it. Certainly the US constitution leaves it up to the states. I assume this would give it to Trump on account of gerrymandering.
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Old 03-01-2020, 04:11 PM
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I won't be surprised if Orangeanus says, "I won't get it because of my orange makeup" at a convention and starts to sell Trump brand face concealer and medication.
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Old 03-01-2020, 05:16 PM
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There is no infectious disease threat would keep me away from voting against Trump.
Yup, I just wish my ballot was fashioned after a Louisville Slugger. And I could deliver it personally.
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Old 03-01-2020, 06:51 PM
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Yup, I just wish my ballot was fashioned after a Louisville Slugger. And I could deliver it personally.
Be very careful with physically assaulting political figures. You might miss.
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Old 03-01-2020, 10:40 PM
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Nuking from orbit is not a practical solution. And, it lacks the personal touch.
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Old 03-02-2020, 08:42 AM
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I won't be surprised if Orangeanus says, "I won't get it because of my orange makeup" at a convention and starts to sell Trump brand face concealer and medication.
If, God forbid, I came down with the virus I think I'd buy a MAGA hat and show up at one of his rallies being sure to shake the bastard's hand. After all, he's said it's no big deal and anyway, he has Topp Men working on it.

I'll have to practice working up a tear while saying in a quavering voice, "Mr. President, sir? Thank you for ridding us of this dread disease." He'll lap it up.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:48 AM
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It's not just the rally/convention attendees that could be at risk. All of our current presidential candidates are in their 70s (except for Tulsi), some of them with medical histories that put them at an increased risk for serious complications or death from Covid-19. For the next 8ish months they'll all be out there shaking hands and kissing babies, while probably not getting a lot of sleep.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:59 AM
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some people have started to bump elbows instead of shaking hands.
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