Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-27-2020, 03:45 PM
Velocity is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 16,904

Realistically, what level of taxation are we looking at if Bernie wins and has a blue Congress?


Let's take the rosiest of scenarios (from Bernie's standpoint): He wins in a wave election in November - defeating Trump in a landslide, and also getting strong Democratic blue majorities in both houses of Congress. And President Bernie vows to implement every single part of his agenda that he said he'd do - free childcare, free college, Medicare for All, fighting climate change, etc.

Now, the increase in taxes may or will be offset by things such as cheaper healthcare, cheaper tuition, etc. But - if we look at taxes and taxes alone, for this thread - what percentage are we realistically looking at?

Using myself as an example: I am 32 years old, earn a bit under $50k a year, have no wife or kids, own no house, don't go to college anymore, am healthy (rarely need healthcare,) etc. I currently pay around 15 percent in federal income tax + Medicare tax + Social Security tax. (We'll ignore state/city tax for this thread.) Am I looking at perhaps 30 percent income tax under a Bernie presidency? Higher?

What about a family with several kids, a house, etc. (a typical American suburban home?)

(Not a thread about whether Bernie's taxation plans are good or bad - just asking how much the math is likely to come out to.)
  #2  
Old 02-27-2020, 04:19 PM
enalzi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 8,556
You percent would not change according to his plan:
https://www.bernietax.com/
  #3  
Old 02-27-2020, 07:59 PM
Damuri Ajashi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 21,329
Quote:
Originally Posted by enalzi View Post
You percent would not change according to his plan:
https://www.bernietax.com/
He adds a 4% medical surcharge for medicare for all.

We collected about 1.68 trillion last year.
The lowest estimate for medicare for all is 13.5 trillion over 10 years.
Urban Institute thinks its 34 trillion
No way a 4% surcharge pays for medicare for all

So either it won't work as advertised or it will cost a lot more than advertised.
  #4  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:27 PM
RTFirefly is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 40,855
You've got to give 110%!
  #5  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:20 AM
Sterling Archer is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,268
His plans call for keeping the lowered Trump-tax-rates up to the $200k tier (for singles, $400k for couples). At that level your marginal rate increases from 35% to 40%. And then he wants to introduce higher tiers at $600k and higher with rates of 45% and 50%. Remember that’s marginal so it only impacts the dollars in that tier, not all your income. Then there’s the wealth tax, but that’s for assets beyond $20 million. (1% at that level)

So for the vast majority of us, no change.
  #6  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:22 AM
Sterling Archer is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,268
I am hoping they reverse the change that Trump introduced with the higher standard deduction. It basically washes out for me because I no longer get any credit for all the interest and taxes I pay as a homeowner, and charitable giving too... better not to give anything and rent an apartment. Same deduction.
  #7  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:45 AM
Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 40,744
I believe Bernie wants to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income, so that has to be taken into account. This is in addition to the half percent tax on all stock trades, a tenth of a percent on bond trades, and a 0.005 percent fee on derivative trades.

He is also going to raise taxes on the fossil fuel industry by $3T, increase corporate taxes by $2T, plus an income inequality tax on large corporations that pay CEOs at least 50 times more than average workers. He will also replace state and local income tax deductions with a flat $50K.

He assumes there will be a lot of income tax paid by the new jobs he thinks his Green New Deal will create, plus reductions in welfare payments (which is a little odd, since most welfare comes from states, not the federal government).

So the short answer is No, he won't raise your taxes at all! Really! Just on those evil billionaires, investors, people who drive gas-powered cars, or own stock Really!

Regards,
Shodan

PS - cite.
  #8  
Old 02-28-2020, 09:54 AM
Ravenman is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 27,881
Hey Shodan, you forgot to mention the carried interest loophole that's going to be closed. I mean, there's all sort of taxes on millionaires that you forgot to scare low-to-moderate income earners about.
  #9  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:13 AM
Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 40,744
Hell yes, there are all kinds of taxes that Sanders is going to impose that I didn't mention. If low- to moderate-income earners think that won't affect them, or that the economy will hum along without noticing, that's kind of what Bernie is counting on.

Regards,
Shodan
  #10  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:14 AM
RTFirefly is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 40,855
Speaking of scaring moderate income earners with taxes on millionaires, we can't forget the "death tax" - Bernie's going to raise that too!
  #11  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:22 AM
RTFirefly is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 40,855
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
Hell yes, there are all kinds of taxes that Sanders is going to impose that I didn't mention. If low- to moderate-income earners think that won't affect them, or that the economy will hum along without noticing, that's kind of what Bernie is counting on.
Putting more money in the pockets of the lower and middle classes should provide one hell of a boost to the economy, actually. Rich people holding an ever-increasing chunk of the pie is basically like taking money out of circulation; spending it on the rest of us is like bringing it back again.
  #12  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:24 AM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,129
If he wins and goes too far on taxes the 2022 election won't be good for the Dems. Look at what happened in 1994 for example and that was nowhere near what Sanders wants to do.
  #13  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:25 AM
control-z is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Virginia
Posts: 13,151
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sterling Archer View Post
I am hoping they reverse the change that Trump introduced with the higher standard deduction. It basically washes out for me because I no longer get any credit for all the interest and taxes I pay as a homeowner, and charitable giving too... better not to give anything and rent an apartment. Same deduction.
If you don't want to live in a house and contribute the charity, then I guess you have no tax incentive to for now. But I'm just happier with the larger deduction, no matter how it is achieved.

Last edited by control-z; 02-28-2020 at 10:25 AM.
  #14  
Old 02-28-2020, 10:49 AM
Wesley Clark's Avatar
Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 23,414
As others have said, for someone at your income I think the only new tax you'd pay is the medicare for all tax. That is 7.5% tax on your employer and a 4% tax on the employee.

However I think some of that tax on the employer is tax deductible (unlike FICA taxes). However I don't know how much. Maybe if your AGI is closer to 35k while your total income is 50k, in that case maybe you'd pay 4% on that 35k, which is $1400 a year in taxes. But you'd save on premiums, copays and deductibles with medical care. However you don't use much medical care as you said. But you still pay premiums.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion

Last edited by Wesley Clark; 02-28-2020 at 10:50 AM.
  #15  
Old 02-28-2020, 11:41 AM
Ravenman is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 27,881
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
Hell yes, there are all kinds of taxes that Sanders is going to impose that I didn't mention. If low- to moderate-income earners think that won't affect them, or that the economy will hum along without noticing, that's kind of what Bernie is counting on.
An investment banker from Goldman Sachs drives through a working-class neighborhood, and decides to stop at a house for some political canvassing. He steps out of Aventador, walks up to the stoop, and raps on the filthy door after covering his hand with a Burberry handkerchief (you know, so he doesn't have to actually touch it).

A man comes to the door, and the banker says, "This is a horrible and disgusting hovel you have here. It would be a shame if something happened to it... if you voted to tax me any more. TRUMP 2020 WHOOOO!"

And he walks back to his car, smugly satisfied that he has defeated socialism and made much better choices in his life than all those foolish poor people out there.
  #16  
Old 02-28-2020, 11:49 AM
Sterling Archer is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,268
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
I believe Bernie wants to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income, so that has to be taken into account.

PS - cite.
This would be amazing, best thing ever for tax policy and income inequality. The other high priority that needs to happen is getting rid of the reinvested dividends loophole.
  #17  
Old 02-28-2020, 12:31 PM
Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 40,744
I spent everything as soon as I got it, and he saved some of it and put it into an index fund. Now he's got more than me. No fair!

:shrugs:

Regards,
Shodan
  #18  
Old 02-28-2020, 12:44 PM
Airbeck is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Chicago - South Side
Posts: 3,244
Why should the income of rich people not be taxed the same as the income of middle class people? shrug indeed...
__________________
"Sometimes I think that the surest sign of intelligent life in the Universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." - Calvin and Hobbes
  #19  
Old 02-28-2020, 01:20 PM
Manwich is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Japan
Posts: 463
Quote:
Originally Posted by enalzi View Post
You percent would not change according to his plan:
https://www.bernietax.com/
Thanks enalzi for answering the question so definitively.

Now we can talk more broadly, the main effect would be that life for American people would be much less precarious in financial terms.

Losing a job or having a health issue wouldn't mean you'd need to fear for the survival of your basic comfort and dignity as an adult.
  #20  
Old 02-28-2020, 01:31 PM
Saint Cad is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: N of Denver & S of Sanity
Posts: 13,935
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sterling Archer View Post
I am hoping they reverse the change that Trump introduced with the higher standard deduction. It basically washes out for me because I no longer get any credit for all the interest and taxes I pay as a homeowner, and charitable giving too... better not to give anything and rent an apartment. Same deduction.
QFT. I'd like to see the tax cut I was promised.
  #21  
Old 02-28-2020, 02:22 PM
Ravenman is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 27,881
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
I spent everything as soon as I got it, and he saved some of it and put it into an index fund. Now he's got more than me. No fair!
... said nobody ever.

I'll give Republicans one thing: they constantly want to remind Americans how terrible the economy of the 1990s was, before the Bush and Trump tax cuts. I mean, it must have been terrible. Were you there for that economic nightmare, Shodan? Did people actually put boots in pots of water to make soup because nobody had any money?
  #22  
Old 02-28-2020, 03:12 PM
Moriarty's Avatar
Moriarty is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Denver, CO, USA
Posts: 3,312
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
...So the short answer is No, he won't raise your taxes at all! Really! Just on those evil billionaires, investors, people who drive gas-powered cars, or own stock Really! .
I was with you until you got to the part about “people who drive gas-powered cars”. Are you saying that driving my Nissan makes me a member of the fossil fuel industry?
  #23  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:30 AM
septimus's Avatar
septimus is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: the Land of Smiles
Posts: 21,101
This will come as good news for some and bad news for others, but ... [guess what?] ...
If Sanders is elected with 50+ pro-people Senators, and even if the 50+ pro-people Senators deny Moscow Mitch his cloture-rule veto, Sanders' program will still not pass Congress.

hth.
  #24  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:48 AM
ataraxy22's Avatar
ataraxy22 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Maryland
Posts: 1,572
you will pay less overall. but the problem is, non-white people might benefit, so it will never happen in the US.
  #25  
Old 02-29-2020, 01:50 AM
Lord Feldon's Avatar
Lord Feldon is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Ohio, USA
Posts: 6,824
Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
But - if we look at taxes and taxes alone, for this thread - what percentage are we realistically looking at?
Not to fight the hypothetical too hard, but the realistic outcome has very little to do with Bernie Sanders. The Bernie Sanders tax law would be the same as the Joe Biden tax law, with perhaps one or two minor differences accounting for things they really work the phones to change. The presidential election won't change what, say, Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema are willing to vote for.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 02-29-2020 at 01:54 AM.
  #26  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:08 AM
Icerigger's Avatar
Icerigger is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Oct 1999
Location: The Keystone State
Posts: 3,436
I would get a $9,000 a year increase in pay because my employer would no longer shell that out for medical insurance.
  #27  
Old 02-29-2020, 08:57 AM
Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 40,744
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moriarty View Post
I was with you until you got to the part about “people who drive gas-powered cars”. Are you saying that driving my Nissan makes me a member of the fossil fuel industry?
It means you will be paying more for gasoline, directly or indirectly, or both.

Regards,
Shodan
  #28  
Old 02-29-2020, 12:13 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,129
Quote:
Originally Posted by Icerigger View Post
I would get a $9,000 a year increase in pay because my employer would no longer shell that out for medical insurance.
or they could just keep that extra $9k as profit . Or some of it.
  #29  
Old 02-29-2020, 12:41 PM
Ludovic is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: America's Wing
Posts: 31,009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
We collected about 1.68 trillion last year.
The lowest estimate for medicare for all is 13.5 trillion over 10 years.
Urban Institute thinks its 34 trillion
No way a 4% surcharge pays for medicare for all
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
As others have said, for someone at your income I think the only new tax you'd pay is the medicare for all tax. That is 7.5% tax on your employer and a 4% tax on the employee.
The 7.5% on the employer should help. But 4% or 11.5% doesn't really count as a tax if you ask Mitt Romney, so I see no reason for anyone to object to this.
  #30  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:54 AM
drivekiller is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
He adds a 4% medical surcharge for medicare for all.

We collected about 1.68 trillion last year.
The lowest estimate for medicare for all is 13.5 trillion over 10 years.
Urban Institute thinks its 34 trillion
No way a 4% surcharge pays for medicare for all

So either it won't work as advertised or it will cost a lot more than advertised.
And yet much of the civilized world manages to have affordable health care. What's up with that?
  #31  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:55 AM
drivekiller is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
I spent everything as soon as I got it, and he saved some of it and put it into an index fund. Now he's got more than me. No fair!

:shrugs:

Regards,
Shodan
Shodan not making minimum wage I see.
  #32  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:36 AM
Damuri Ajashi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 21,329
Quote:
Originally Posted by drivekiller View Post
And yet much of the civilized world manages to have affordable health care. What's up with that?
Who do you consider the civilized world?
Mostly wealthy white nations AFAICT.
Are others uncivilized?

The point is it costs a ton of money and Bernie's version of universal Healthcare which is more comprehensive than other civilized white nations health care systems, is extremely costly.

A public option is probably a better idea for now.
  #33  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:18 AM
Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 40,744
Quote:
Originally Posted by drivekiller View Post
Shodan not making minimum wage I see.
Very few people in the US are - something like 4% of wage earners. And they don't typically live in poor households, and don't support themselves or anyone else. So if the idea is that people can't invest because they are earning minimum wage, that's false.

Of course Bernie wants to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, which the CBO says would cost about 1.3 million jobs, so that would hurt their ability to invest.

Regards,
Shodan
  #34  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:25 AM
Loach's Avatar
Loach is offline
The Central Scrutinizer
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Pork Roll/Taylor Ham
Posts: 26,195
I have serious doubts that his plans will be able to be implemented at even close to the cost he is predicting.

Serious question, has any major government program come in under budget or at the cost it was initially predicted to be?
  #35  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:50 AM
Ruken is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: DC
Posts: 8,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sterling Archer View Post
His plans call for keeping the lowered Trump-tax-rates up to the $200k tier (for singles, $400k for couples).
This seems odd. My household is a far cry from $400k and I assure you we didn't need that tax cut.

I mean sure, I like keeping more of my money, but I'm ok with putting my own money where my mouth is to actually pay for policy actions I support, rather than try to find someone else to pay for it.
  #36  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:00 AM
Ruken is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: DC
Posts: 8,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by OP
Not a thread about whether Bernie's taxation plans are good or bad - just asking how much the math is likely to come out to
Sorry. I must wear the LOLDIDNTREAD hat of shame.


Re: financial transactions and capital gains, I recall when discussing the Yang plan that his proposed tax on financial transactions was supposed to raise about $78B/year, and taxing cap gains as ordinary income would raise $7B. I doubt they were both proposing the exact same thing so those numbers probably need some adjustment.

As for what would actually get passed by BS + Blue Congress? I honestly don't know. They could barely pass ACA. And I don't expect a leftist sweep of Congress.
  #37  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:43 AM
Sterling Archer is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,268
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ruken View Post
This seems odd. My household is a far cry from $400k and I assure you we didn't need that tax cut.



I mean sure, I like keeping more of my money, but I'm ok with putting my own money where my mouth is to actually pay for policy actions I support, rather than try to find someone else to pay for it.


Keep in mind, the Trump tax cuts aren’t really a cut for middle class incomes. I believe the analysis showed with incomes of $100k-$150k there would be savings in the early years, but they’d work out to about the same after 5+ years. And it’s all built into the new huge standard deduction so if you were a home owner who gave a decent amount to charity and itemized in the past, you are seeing barely any tax savings now. If you rent and do not give to charity, then you got a huge tax cut. Makes little sense.
  #38  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:12 PM
Shodan is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Milky Way Galaxy
Posts: 40,744
I for one would be perfectly happy with a tax increase, as long as it was coupled with corresponding spending cuts.

Neither party is suggesting that. The GOP wants to cut taxes. The Dems want to increase taxes, and spend it all, plus more.

Regards,
Shodan
  #39  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:14 PM
Yankees 1996 Champs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
I for one would be perfectly happy with a tax increase, as long as it was coupled with corresponding spending cuts.

Neither party is suggesting that. The GOP wants to cut taxes. The Dems want to increase taxes, and spend it all, plus more.

Regards,
Shodan
Exactly.

Under Sanders, you will see a heavy level of high taxation under a President Sanders, it will kick in during 2023 and you will probably see a Speaker Scalise or Speaker Jordan.
  #40  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:39 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,129
When Clinton ran in 92 I remember the GOP listed all his tax increases. One of them was the Ark dog tracks were open more days. They said that was a tax increase since it meant more money for the state.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:45 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017