View Poll Results: Who will drop out after Super Tuesday?
Bloomberg 12 35.29%
Warren 14 41.18%
Neither 14 41.18%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 34. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:18 PM
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Who will drop out after Super Tuesday, part 2.


After a wild last few days, I thought Iíd start a thread similar to my previous one, but with fewer options. At this point it seems to be down to a two person race with two spoilers. This thread is to offer your best guess about whether Bloomberg, Warren, or neither one will drop out by the time people start to vote in the next batch of primaries on 3/10. Will we see a Sanders vs. Biden duel, or will one or both of the other two stick around?

ETA. The poll is multiple choice. And congratulations to everyone from the previous thread who picked both Klobuchar and Buttigieg.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 03-02-2020 at 06:20 PM.
  #2  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:20 PM
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I'm guessing Warren will since she will realize she is just making it easier for Bloomberg to get his way.

I also think Bloomberg will stay in until the bitter end. Bloomberg wants to stop both Trump and Sanders, but I think his ego is big enough that even if him staying in the race cuts into Biden's lead, he will stay in the race anyway until the convention.

I think it'll be a 3 person race by the end of the week. Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg and all 3 will stay in until the end.
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  #3  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:21 PM
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I think both Bloomberg and Warren drop out.
  #4  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
I'm guessing Warren will since she will realize she is just making it easier for Bloomberg to get his way.

I also think Bloomberg will stay in until the bitter end. Bloomberg wants to stop both Trump and Sanders, but I think his ego is big enough that even if him staying in the race cuts into Biden's lead, he will stay in the race anyway until the convention.

I think it'll be a 3 person race by the end of the week. Sanders, Biden, Bloomberg and all 3 will stay in until the end.
At this point it seems it does have more to do with the candidates themselves rather than the voters. I misjudged both Klobuchar and Buttigieg and didnít expect them to drop out when they did. From what Iíve read Bloomberg hasnít bought any ads to run after Super Tuesday, but who knows if that actually means anything.
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Old 03-02-2020, 06:26 PM
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Warren will first. Now that we’re past debate madness, it’ll depend on Bloomberg. He’s got to realize he will be the punching bag up on stage and he hates it.
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Old 03-02-2020, 06:26 PM
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I am saying both, unless some miracle happens for them.
  #7  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:32 PM
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Warren will drop soon because donors will bet on invest in a better chance. Bloomie will spend another half-billion bucks or more because what's he got to lose?
  #8  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:33 PM
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Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue View Post
At this point it seems it does have more to do with the candidates themselves rather than the voters. I misjudged both Klobuchar and Buttigieg and didnít expect them to drop out when they did. From what Iíve read Bloomberg hasnít bought any ads to run after Super Tuesday, but who knows if that actually means anything.
I didn't know he hadn't done ad buys for after super tuesday.


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Warren will drop soon because donors will bet on invest in a better chance. Bloomie will spend another half-billion bucks or more because what's he got to lose?
Warren raised 29 million in February. However that may just be due to her good debate performances against Bloomberg, and her money will dry up after Tuesday.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 03-02-2020 at 06:34 PM.
  #9  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:15 PM
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Operating under the assumption that Biden does moderately well and Bloomberg fairly far behind him.

Bloomberg will not want to play spoiler. He does not believe Sanders can win and he got in when Biden looked like he was falling off the cliff, having stayed out when Biden seemed stronger. He'll drop out after a disappointing performance.

Warren? Her team sees her path as the contested convention and in a three still standing contest she will pick up delegates. She won't get the plurality but her small chance is as the compromise candidate to the delegates at the convention.
Quote:
Warren campaign manager Roger Lau raised the prospect of a convention fight in a strategy memo on Sunday. He said that internal campaign projections show Warren will win delegates in all 14 Super Tuesday states and that no candidate will likely emerge from the March 3 contests with a path to securing a majority of the delegates.

“Our grassroots campaign is built to compete in every state and territory and ultimately prevail at the national convention in Milwaukee,” Lau wrote. ...

... In a convention fight between Sanders and a more moderate candidate, some Democrats suggest Warren’s role would be to emerge as a consensus alternative: liberal enough for Sanders’ supporters to back her and tolerable enough for moderates to do so as well.

Indeed, AP VoteCast data, a wide-ranging survey of voters in the South Carolina Democratic primary, shows that a majority of both Biden and Sanders supporters would be satisfied with a Warren nomination. But that satisfaction drops among Sanders backers if Biden were to be the nominee, and the same goes for Biden supporters with Sanders. By contrast, Bloomberg is the only major candidate who would leave a majority of all those surveyed dissatisfied.

“I am in no way saying it's a winning scenario, but it is one that makes sense from her point of view,” said Kelly Dietrich, a veteran Democratic fundraiser and CEO of the National Democratic Training Committee.
  #10  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:23 PM
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Now that weíre past debate madness, itíll depend on Bloomberg. Heís got to realize he will be the punching bag up on stage and he hates it.
Maybe he's a masochist and he's discovered the ultimate thrill.
  #11  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:26 PM
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Operating under the assumption that Biden does moderately well and Bloomberg fairly far behind him.

Bloomberg will not want to play spoiler. He does not believe Sanders can win and he got in when Biden looked like he was falling off the cliff, having stayed out when Biden seemed stronger. He'll drop out after a disappointing performance.

Warren? Her team sees her path as the contested convention and in a three still standing contest she will pick up delegates. She won't get the plurality but her small chance is as the compromise candidate to the delegates at the convention.
Is there a path between Bernie and Biden for Warren though? And, how about money? She had to take out a line of credit back in January. Fundraising is one thing but burn rate is another.
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  #12  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:45 PM
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Is there a path between Bernie and Biden for Warren though? And, how about money? She had to take out a line of credit back in January. Fundraising is one thing but burn rate is another.
Not sure. But with that as her perceived path she will try to keep going as long as she can and will hang on at least through the March 10th races even on a shoestring burning as little as possible.
  #13  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:51 PM
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I think Bloomberg ran because the thought of Sanders at the top of the ticket scared him shitless. Now that Biden has emerged as the premier anti-Bernie, he has no reason to stay in.

Personally, I hope Warren stays in, she dilutes the pool that Bernie swims in.
  #14  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:39 PM
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I voted "neither." I don't think either will drop out until after the March 10 votes. But I think both Warren and Bloomberg will do so soon after that.
  #15  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:50 PM
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I mailed our ballots today (couldn't get to the county clerk's office) and Stupor Tuesday starts in a few hours, local time. So we'll have answers to this poll's question very soon. Have we prizes and punishments for our votes? Can they be self-administered? No vids or GIFs, please. Will an end to Bloomberg ads be reward enough?
  #16  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:51 PM
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I keep thinking the only reason for Warren to stay in is to play spoiler against Sanders, but there could be a second reason the party wants her to stick around a while longer. They need her to continue attacking Bloomberg, which helps Biden. Let’s face it, no one else can put Mike in his place like Liz, and it keeps Joe’s hands clean.
  #17  
Old 03-02-2020, 11:01 PM
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I keep thinking the only reason for Warren to stay in is to play spoiler against Sanders, but there could be a second reason the party wants her to stick around a while longer. They need her to continue attacking Bloomberg, which helps Biden. Letís face it, no one else can put Mike in his place like Liz, and it keeps Joeís hands clean.
Ah! She's part of the establishment stop Bernie conspiracy!!! GAWD they will stop at nuttin' to rob him!
  #18  
Old 03-02-2020, 11:13 PM
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If Warren doesn't pull off a fairly decisive win on Tuesday, she's going to ruin everything I think about her if she stays in. Also, if Sanders can't hold his own against Bloomberg, he doesn't deserve to win, and I'm sure he can hold his own against Bloomberg.

I'm not really fearing that Bloomburg can win, but then, I didn't think Trump would get the nomination, and I thought he'd get Mondale'd in the general.
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  #19  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:20 AM
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If Warren doesn't pull off a fairly decisive win on Tuesday, she's going to ruin everything I think about her if she stays in. Also, if Sanders can't hold his own against Bloomberg, he doesn't deserve to win, and I'm sure he can hold his own against Bloomberg.

I'm not really fearing that Bloomburg can win, but then, I didn't think Trump would get the nomination, and I thought he'd get Mondale'd in the general.
I feel like this, too. It's a toss-up in a way. If Warren stays in to help attack Bloomberg, it's the same old boring trash talk we've had for a while. And I think she's way above stuff like that. And she is best qualified for POTUS, IMHO. But electable? There's the rub, or more like a chronic itch in the US today.

Still, if Bloomy stays in after he sucks in the polls-- like not even winning one state-- he should get out the checkbook for whomever needs it in the end.

It's a Biden/Warren ticket coming, IMO.
  #20  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:11 PM
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It's a Biden/Warren ticket coming, IMO.
She's still in the race, and there doesn't seem to be a reason related to her getting elected to STILL be in the race at this point. She's angling for something.

It's not to be Bernie's VP, because I heard she's still pushing the donations really hard. If, as I understand it, she can throw her campaign funds to whoever she wants when she drops out, she's trying to look a little EXTRA attractive to Biden. "Look, I can bring money, and the woman vote, and make you look like you're uniting the party."

I'm disappointed. She went for the prestige, the mark in the history book, the power, instead of trying to boost the guy who most matches her policies, as I've understood them these past years. Maybe she thinks Uncle Joe's cheese is sliding off his cracker, and will 25th him, or someone else will, or he'll step down himself. Maybe she thinks she can still run in 2024, and Joe can't.

I don't know anything for sure, of course, except she can't really believe she's gonna win now. She's not stupid, and I don't think she's delusional.
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  #21  
Old 03-04-2020, 10:45 PM
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So, those who predicted Bloomberg will stay in, please accept the board version of our game!

Still waiting to see if those of us who said Bloomberg would not play spoiler and would quit but Warren would hang in a wee bit longer are right on both counts.

I'm still going with her hanging on through March 10 and seeing if she can pick up some delegates in a three way race, and thereby gain some power in a contested election and keep her delusional fantasy of being the compromise brokered convention pick alive. I wasn't counting on her being this clobbered though!
  #22  
Old 03-05-2020, 11:56 AM
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Quote:
Who will drop out after Super Tuesday
Well, whaddaya expect? Who couldn't get past first base in this campaign. He was hardly the only one!

What and I Don't Know had no comment.
  #23  
Old 03-05-2020, 12:03 PM
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I voted Bloomberg to stay [WRONG!] and Warren to drop [RIGHT!] so I'll take half the lashes, matey.
  #24  
Old 03-06-2020, 10:08 AM
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23 replies and nobody has even mentioned Tulsi Gabbard yet? Sad!
  #25  
Old 03-07-2020, 03:06 PM
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23 replies and nobody has even mentioned Tulsi Gabbard yet? Sad!
You just did, more's the pity. These California candidates haven't quit yet:
Mosie Boyd
Michael A. Ellinger
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente III
Tulsi Gabbard
Mark Stewart Greenstein
A stalwart company, there. On the GOP side we still have:
Rocky De La Fuente (senior)
Matthew John Matern
Robert Ardini
Zoltan Istvan
I note an inter-generational conflict. Still, our options are open.
  #26  
Old 03-07-2020, 03:30 PM
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You just did, more's the pity. These California candidates haven't quit yet:
Mosie Boyd
Michael A. Ellinger
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente III
Tulsi Gabbard
Mark Stewart Greenstein
A stalwart company, there. On the GOP side we still have:
Rocky De La Fuente (senior)
Matthew John Matern
Robert Ardini
Zoltan Istvan
I note an inter-generational conflict. Still, our options are open.
You're saying all these candidates are still running for President? NY Times just lists the Dems as Biden, Bernie and Tulsi.

(and what is her deal, anyhow?)
  #27  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:14 PM
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You're saying all these candidates are still running for President? NY Times just lists the Dems as Biden, Bernie and Tulsi.
Yes. The media screens out "minor" candidates. There may still be a couple dozen running for the Democratic nomination when you add up every candidate on the primary ballot in at least one state.
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