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Old 03-21-2020, 06:35 PM
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Will the virus and economic collapse lead to massive political unrest


The Arab spring was supposedly started in part by spikes in food prices.

I am wondering if something similar but possibly larger scale will happen on a global level due to the virus and the fallout of the virus.

To my knowledge, no political unravelings occurred due to the spanish flu.

Any political changes in China or Russia because of this?
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Old 03-21-2020, 06:55 PM
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Any political changes in China or Russia because of this?
...I think the country you really need to keep a close eye on is the United States.

You've got an international crime syndicate masquerading as a government sitting in the White House, at its head is probably the worlds stupidest man who at the moment is acting increasingly deranged.

You've got a healthcare system that cannot be accessed by millions of your citizens that in the face of a global pandemic is likely to start falling apart.

You've got the "gun nuts" and the "conspiracy theorists" and the QANONers and on the flip side you've got increasing levels of income disparity and class distinction.

You are sitting on a tinderbox. All it will take is a match. Remember: this is exactly the sort of chaos that the likes of Steve Bannon were hoping for. And it only took four years.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:32 PM
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I have no faith in America honestly. The public are too divided and the plutocrats are too firmly in charge.

If America does undergo revolution, its more likely to move towards fascism than it is to move towards a western european sytle social democracy with working civics and working health care.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:49 PM
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The 1918 flu was concurrent with WWI, which was a disruptive event in its own right. Like now, Spanish Flu eventually shut down cities and commerce, and there were negative economic impacts. But economic activity in the US returned to normal until about 1920-21 when it began to experience post-war contraction. There was also a similar recession in Europe, but it probably had little to do with the flu of 1918.

It may well be that COVID kills far fewer people than the influenza of 1918, but it has the potential to be far more disruptive economically and politically. We live in a world that is highly interdependent, economically speaking. Moreover, this interdependence is based on an existing global economic and political framework that is under increasing strain.

Globalization, liberalization of trade, more open borders, and international economic and political frameworks - the neo-liberal/globalization orthodoxy was already facing skepticism before this (see Brexit, see Trump, see the rise of right wing politics in Europe). It wouldn't surprise me to see some governments collapse as a result of this crisis. It wouldn't surprise me to see some countries trade liberal democracy for something less than democratic.

And while I don't necessarily agree with BB word for word, I think he's right in that the U.S. is no less immune to this strain than anyone else. It's pretty clear that this president is not interested in unifying the country; it's clear that COVID in the U.S. is a partisan competition, and this will be another polarizing event.
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Old 03-21-2020, 07:57 PM
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If America does undergo revolution, its more likely to move towards fascism than it is to move towards a western european sytle social democracy with working civics and working health care.
It's definitely within the realm of possibility.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-powers-140023

Quote:
The Justice Department has quietly asked Congress for the ability to ask chief judges to detain people indefinitely without trial during emergencies ó part of a push for new powers that comes as the coronavirus spreads through the United States.

Documents reviewed by POLITICO detail the departmentís requests to lawmakers on a host of topics, including the statute of limitations, asylum and the way court hearings are conducted. POLITICO also reviewed and previously reported on documents seeking the authority to extend deadlines on merger reviews and prosecutions.
I've been telling people that Trump and the GOP are authoritarians. The writing is on the wall: they cannot win democratically, and they know it.

Look at what happens in the Third World, or in Russia, or in Iran, or Turkey. They investigate and threaten to jail people. They call their press fake news. They try to rig the judicial system. They try to infiltrate and control schools and colleges (Trump and the GOP have tried each of these, btw, whether you've seen it or not). They'll try to move elections or claim they weren't fair. We're going down that same path.

All they needed was a crisis. And now they've got one.
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:16 PM
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If the food supply chain is significantly affected, you'll see intense fear. We have gone for many decades in America without ever having to worry about where our next meal will come from (well, that is, for most of us.) The prospect of starvation being a real possibility - even remotely so - will cause tremendous upheaval.
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Old 03-21-2020, 08:24 PM
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If the food supply chain is significantly affected, you'll see intense fear. We have gone for many decades in America without ever having to worry about where our next meal will come from (well, that is, for most of us.) The prospect of starvation being a real possibility - even remotely so - will cause tremendous upheaval.
For now I think the food supply is okay, but they have to get the virus under control. If ag producers get sick and suspend production, that could be bad obviously.

There's also a growing threat - growing by the day - that the suddenness and the severity of the economic slow down creates unemployment, consumption, and credit shocks on such a scale that central banks and economic planners can't coordinate.

The threat is intensified by the current trade policies of this administration. In emergencies like this, you need international cooperation and you need to assume that other countries are acting in good faith. That lessens the tendencies of a handful of countries protecting critical industries. You want oil producing nations to set prices out of concern not just for their economies but the global economy. Other countries want to have assurances that Washington's policies aren't going to try to weaponize their power against them. In 2008-9, the assumption was that most countries were cooperating with each other in the short term and that they could go back to competition later. Now? I think there are no such assurances, which creates distrust at a time when we need something to hang our hats on.

I wasn't hyperbolizing in another thread when I said that there is a very real chance not of just a recession, but a depression - with a 'd'.
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Old 03-22-2020, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
The Arab spring was supposedly started in part by spikes in food prices.

I am wondering if something similar but possibly larger scale will happen on a global level due to the virus and the fallout of the virus.

To my knowledge, no political unravelings occurred due to the spanish flu.

Any political changes in China or Russia because of this?
Russia seems to have been hit very little by this. I suppose that could change, but so far they seem to be in a good position. Now, the dependency of oil on their economy...THAT might spark political change or even a kind of revolution.

China? Yeah, it's a distinct possibility. While us in the west seem bent o lapping up Chinese propaganda on how great they are doing wrt the outbreak (their government caused), the Chinese people seem less happy. Couple that with a likely, almost inevitable medium to long term economic downturn and you have the setting for a real revolution. It's what the CCP most fears, and rightfully so. Banquet Bear can go on about US flaws, but ironically, many of those (with the exception of the 'gun nut' part) are much more prevalent in the CCP...and much more of a 'tinderbox', waiting for the right match. And I think that match is lit...it's a matter of will it drop onto the tinder or not. I give it even odds at this point. What will be interesting, to me anyway, is all of the shocked people, especially in the media but obviously here as well, if it does happen. They will be like...but I thought China was doing great, and everyone was so happy! What could have happened??



As for the US, no, I'm not seeing revolution or whatever. At least not at this stage. I CAN see the US form of that, i.e. voters in a landslide voting out the idiots who caused this...or even who they THINK caused it. But actual revolution? No, that doesn't seem likely. I will say this...tough times are coming not just for the US but world wide. I think a recession is certain at this point, if it's not already happened. It's going to be quite a while before the world economy recovers, and that won't even start until we have gotten this outbreak (caused by the CCP lets not forget) under control.
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Old 03-22-2020, 02:05 PM
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The initial economic reaction, other than the stock market, seems to be doubling down on status quo. USA as reserve currency, probably USA as main consumer. That does not seem to be changing.

Unless there's a massive change, this virus should be less disruptive to supply chains than the Spanish flu. Much of food production in the USA is already heavily automated. And we're a net exporter of food as well. Seems more likely that other nations would face more economic damage than the USA.

I think that big business will actually make out like a bandit at the expense of the smalls. Not that they aren't already, this will just make it easier for them. And THAT could lead to big problems... in ten years or so!
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Old 03-22-2020, 06:23 PM
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I know I'm feeling violent after watching this most recent presser. We're up to 400 people dead and the president spent three minutes rambling about all the people suing him.
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Old 03-22-2020, 10:31 PM
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Do not be surprised by arson at political offices and assaults on figures held responsible by survivors.
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Old 03-23-2020, 01:55 AM
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There were a lot of wars immediately following WWI. The Russians and Poles, the Turks and Greeks, The Russians and most of the people internally (whites vs reds), the Chinese had a revolution, the Finns had a civil war, Romania and Hungary...And the list went on and on.

So the Spanish flu certainly helped to make conditions that contributed to those and the rest too.
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Old 03-23-2020, 02:46 PM
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Here is a question I hope someone here can explain - maybe this was already addressed elsewhere and I missed it (likely)....

Seems like for many (most), a primary monthly expense is rent/lease/mortgage. All of which are rooted with the banks. Would it be possible for everyone along that line to pause until this situation clears?

For instance, renters not pay rent, landlords not collect rent, banks not collect on loans to landlords; and people dont pay mortgages, banks dont collect mortgages, etc.

Is it even possible to pause the entire real estate financial system for a while? I ask as this seems relevant to the OP - if people's living situation is stabilized during the crisis, they may be less apt to become unrestful (at least when it comes with their housing).
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Old 03-23-2020, 03:00 PM
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Here is a question I hope someone here can explain - maybe this was already addressed elsewhere and I missed it (likely)....

Seems like for many (most), a primary monthly expense is rent/lease/mortgage. All of which are rooted with the banks. Would it be possible for everyone along that line to pause until this situation clears?

For instance, renters not pay rent, landlords not collect rent, banks not collect on loans to landlords; and people dont pay mortgages, banks dont collect mortgages, etc.

Is it even possible to pause the entire real estate financial system for a while? I ask as this seems relevant to the OP - if people's living situation is stabilized during the crisis, they may be less apt to become unrestful (at least when it comes with their housing).
Do you mean postponing them til later, or skipping a round of payments entirely? For many people who are struggling to pay rent, the knowledge that "you don't have to pay me your $900 monthly rent for three months, but it just means you owe me an additional $2,700 when those three months are up" is not likely to be of much help - it just kicks the can down the road.
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Old 03-23-2020, 03:09 PM
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Do you mean postponing them til later, or skipping a round of payments entirely? For many people who are struggling to pay rent, the knowledge that "you don't have to pay me your $900 monthly rent for three months, but it just means you owe me an additional $2,700 when those three months are up" is not likely to be of much help - it just kicks the can down the road.
Yes, pausing, not forgiving. In your example, pausing for three months, but then tacking on an additional 3 months at the end of the loan, and not adding it to the first three months when payments resume.

Edit: I mis-read and was thinking about loans, not rent. For rents, yes, simply pausing them. A renter getting this sort of provision is more likely to stay when things get back to normal, but yeah the 3 months rent would be essentially forgiven (all along the whole line - from renter to landlord to bank).

Last edited by snowthx; 03-23-2020 at 03:11 PM.
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Old 03-23-2020, 03:11 PM
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Do you mean postponing them til later, or skipping a round of payments entirely? For many people who are struggling to pay rent, the knowledge that "you don't have to pay me your $900 monthly rent for three months, but it just means you owe me an additional $2,700 when those three months are up" is not likely to be of much help - it just kicks the can down the road.
Postponement of the payment would seem most likely, not you owe me $2700 in three months, but you owe me $900 in three months and every month so take those 3 months and save it up.
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Old 03-23-2020, 03:57 PM
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One factor that is worth considering is an idle workforce. If everyone is employed and life is rolling along, then people are (generally) happy and busy doing that.

If, however, our economy crashes and the COVID keeps people from working, and earning money, for a long period, then I expect to see pockets of unrest because people want to do something.
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Old 03-23-2020, 04:04 PM
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One factor that is worth considering is an idle workforce. If everyone is employed and life is rolling along, then people are (generally) happy and busy doing that.

If, however, our economy crashes and the COVID keeps people from working, and earning money, for a long period, then I expect to see pockets of unrest because people want to do something.
I suspect people will be doing each other. A large baby boom around the world in December will be the result.
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Old 03-23-2020, 05:01 PM
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One factor that is worth considering is an idle workforce. If everyone is employed and life is rolling along, then people are (generally) happy and busy doing that.

If, however, our economy crashes and the COVID keeps people from working, and earning money, for a long period, then I expect to see pockets of unrest because people want to do something.
Especially when it gets hot. Not everyone has AC at home.

And the hot weather is quickly approaching. We had a couple of days in the 80s last week here, and I don't even live in the deep south.
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Old 03-23-2020, 06:55 PM
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Do you mean postponing them til later, or skipping a round of payments entirely? For many people who are struggling to pay rent, the knowledge that "you don't have to pay me your $900 monthly rent for three months, but it just means you owe me an additional $2,700 when those three months are up" is not likely to be of much help - it just kicks the can down the road.
My understanding is that ideas like extending the terms of the mortgage are being looked at. So if you have a 30 year mortgage, maybe they tack an additional 3-6 months onto the end of it to make up for the several months when payments were on pause.
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Old 03-24-2020, 08:23 AM
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Our Constitutional rights of freedom of assembly and religion are being curtailed. So where are all the gun owners who say the 2nd amendment is there to protect all the rights? Why isn't there a church somewhere with armed congregants outside ready to act if police attempt to make them disperse? Why aren't there groups of gun owners in open carry states defiantly assembling?
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Old 03-24-2020, 08:48 AM
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Our Constitutional rights of freedom of assembly and religion are being curtailed. So where are all the gun owners who say the 2nd amendment is there to protect all the rights? Why isn't there a church somewhere with armed congregants outside ready to act if police attempt to make them disperse? Why aren't there groups of gun owners in open carry states defiantly assembling?
You realize this sounds ridiculous, right?
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Old 03-24-2020, 09:48 AM
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Our Constitutional rights of freedom of assembly and religion are being curtailed. So where are all the gun owners who say the 2nd amendment is there to protect all the rights? Why isn't there a church somewhere with armed congregants outside ready to act if police attempt to make them disperse? Why aren't there groups of gun owners in open carry states defiantly assembling?
Haha!!
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:09 AM
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Our Constitutional rights of freedom of assembly and religion are being curtailed. So where are all the gun owners who say the 2nd amendment is there to protect all the rights? Why isn't there a church somewhere with armed congregants outside ready to act if police attempt to make them disperse? Why aren't there groups of gun owners in open carry states defiantly assembling?
Because Barack Obama is not President of the United States of America anymore. If he was, Iím positive all this and more would be happening.
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Old 03-24-2020, 11:06 AM
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You realize this sounds ridiculous, right?
If you're someone who believe the purpose of the 2nd amendment is to prevent tyranny and the erosion of our Constitutional rights it shouldn't be. At what point are those who believe that going to act? Or have they just been all talk all this time?
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Old 03-24-2020, 01:06 PM
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If you're someone who believe the purpose of the 2nd amendment is to prevent tyranny and the erosion of our Constitutional rights it shouldn't be. At what point are those who believe that going to act? Or have they just been all talk all this time?
No Constitutional right is being curtailed for one. YOU are free to go outside, hang with your neighbors or do any damn thing you please.
What they have asked is to distance yourself from your social life. Currently there is no mechanism in place to take that from you.
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Old 03-24-2020, 10:29 PM
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If you're someone who believe the purpose of the 2nd amendment is to prevent tyranny and the erosion of our Constitutional rights it shouldn't be. At what point are those who believe that going to act? Or have they just been all talk all this time?
The 2nd concerns a national militia, not fighting domestic tyranny. Civilians seriously thinking their personal weapons can prevail against the world's most powerful military would soon learn otherwise. So yes, it's talk, like an old guy complaining at clouds.

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