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  #251  
Old 03-20-2020, 11:20 PM
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Let's go a step further; some of the larger failing carriers should be combined into one nationalized international flagship airline. There are good reasons that many countries do that.
What are those reasons?
  #252  
Old 03-23-2020, 04:34 PM
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Top 20 drops in the DJIA by points:
  • 1 2020-03-09 23,851.02 −2,013.76 −7.79% Republican
  • 2 2020-02-27 25,766.64 −1,190.95 −4.42% Republican
  • 3 2018-02-05 24,345.75 −1,175.21 −4.60% Republican
  • 4 2018-02-08 23,860.46 −1,032.89 −4.15% Republican
  • 5 2020-02-24 27,960.80 −1,031.61 −3.56% Republican
  • 6 2020-03-05 26,121.28 −969.58 −3.58% Republican
  • 7 2020-02-25 27,081.36 −879.44 −3.15% Republican
  • 8 2018-10-10 25,598.74 −831.83 −3.15% Republican
  • 9 2019-08-14 25,479.42 −800.49 −3.05% Republican
  • 10 2018-12-04 25,027.07 −799.36 −3.10% Republican
  • 11 2020-03-03 25,917.41 −785.91 −2.94% Republican
  • 12 2008-09-29 10,365.45 −777.68 −6.98% Republican
  • 13 2019-08-05 25,717.74 −767.27 −2.90% Republican
  • 14 2008-10-15 8,577.91 −733.08 −7.87% Republican
  • 15 2018-03-22 23,957.89 −724.42 −2.93% Republican
  • 16 2001-09-17 8,920.70 −684.81 −7.13% Republican
  • 17 2008-12-01 8,149.09 −679.95 −7.70% Republican
  • 18 2008-10-09 8,579.19 −678.92 −7.33% Republican
  • 19 2018-02-02 25,520.96 −665.75 −2.54% Republican
  • 20 2019-01-03 22,686.22 −660.02 −2.83% Republican
Just a quick update to this chart:
  • 1 2020-03-16 20,188.52 −2,997.10 −12.93
  • 2 2020-03-12 21,200.62 −2,352.60 −9.99
  • 3 2020-03-09 23,851.02 −2,013.76 −7.79
  • 4 2020-03-11 23,553.22 −1,464.94 −5.86
  • 5 2020-03-18 19,898.92 −1,338.46 −6.30
  • 6 2020-02-27 25,766.64 −1,190.95 −4.42
  • 7 2018-02-05 24,345.75 −1,175.21 −4.60
  • 8 2018-02-08 23,860.46 −1,032.89 −4.15
  • 9 2020-02-24 27,960.80 −1,031.61 −3.56
  • 10 2020-03-05 26,121.28 −969.58 −3.58
  • 11 2020-03-20 19,173.98 -913.21 −4.55
  • 12 2020-02-25 27,081.36 −879.44 −3.15
  • 13 2018-10-10 25,598.74 −831.83 −3.15
  • 14 2019-08-14 25,479.42 −800.49 −3.05
  • 15 2018-12-04 25,027.07 −799.36 −3.10
  • 16 2020-03-03 25,917.41 −785.91 −2.94
  • 17 2008-09-29 10,365.45 −777.68 −6.98
  • 18 2019-08-05 25,717.74 −767.27 −2.90
  • 19 2008-10-15 8,577.91 −733.08 −7.87
  • 20 2018-03-22 23,957.89 −724.42 −2.93

Trump now owns the top 16 point drops in DJIA history. Would like to note he owned the top-5 before all this started, so he's performing according to both expectations and in correlation with past results.

Like I said, the happiest people in the world are George W Bush and a deceased President Hoover.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-23-2020 at 04:36 PM.
  #253  
Old 03-24-2020, 04:18 PM
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Just a quick update to this chart:
  • 1 2020-03-16 20,188.52 −2,997.10 −12.93
  • 2 2020-03-12 21,200.62 −2,352.60 −9.99
  • 3 2020-03-09 23,851.02 −2,013.76 −7.79
  • 4 2020-03-11 23,553.22 −1,464.94 −5.86
  • 5 2020-03-18 19,898.92 −1,338.46 −6.30
  • 6 2020-02-27 25,766.64 −1,190.95 −4.42
  • 7 2018-02-05 24,345.75 −1,175.21 −4.60
  • 8 2018-02-08 23,860.46 −1,032.89 −4.15
  • 9 2020-02-24 27,960.80 −1,031.61 −3.56
  • 10 2020-03-05 26,121.28 −969.58 −3.58
  • 11 2020-03-20 19,173.98 -913.21 −4.55
  • 12 2020-02-25 27,081.36 −879.44 −3.15
  • 13 2018-10-10 25,598.74 −831.83 −3.15
  • 14 2019-08-14 25,479.42 −800.49 −3.05
  • 15 2018-12-04 25,027.07 −799.36 −3.10
  • 16 2020-03-03 25,917.41 −785.91 −2.94
  • 17 2008-09-29 10,365.45 −777.68 −6.98
  • 18 2019-08-05 25,717.74 −767.27 −2.90
  • 19 2008-10-15 8,577.91 −733.08 −7.87
  • 20 2018-03-22 23,957.89 −724.42 −2.93

Trump now owns the top 16 point drops in DJIA history. Would like to note he owned the top-5 before all this started, so he's performing according to both expectations and in correlation with past results.

Like I said, the happiest people in the world are George W Bush and a deceased President Hoover.
Think of all the lovely buying opportunities! And are these large point drops the largest %age wise as well? If not, it seems a tiny bit misleading.
  #254  
Old 03-24-2020, 04:39 PM
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Dude, you didn't respond to the first post when I typed this up (which included the %'s). Why not go to the original post here and respond to that.

Or are you just going to cherry-pick posts to respond to while ignoring the larger point?

Last edited by JohnT; 03-24-2020 at 04:39 PM.
  #255  
Old 03-24-2020, 07:11 PM
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Trump now owns the top 16 point drops in DJIA history. Would like to note he owned the top-5 before all this started, so he's performing according to both expectations and in correlation with past results.
And the highest in history.
  #256  
Old 03-24-2020, 07:13 PM
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And the highest in history.
I dearly hope he tries out this talking point.
  #257  
Old 03-24-2020, 09:57 PM
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And the highest in history.
You, too, ignored post 135 to bring up meaningless data points.
  #258  
Old 03-24-2020, 10:45 PM
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You, too, ignored post 135 to bring up meaningless data points.
So the President is responsible for the lows, but not the highs? Is that your message?
  #259  
Old 03-24-2020, 11:03 PM
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My message is, since you ignored it repeatedly (except to ask what I meant, the response to which you completely ignored) is that the historical and financial evidence is overwhelming: The GOP is incapable of managing a modern, post-slavery economy. Trump is but the latest (but, to give him credit, most spectacular) in a long line of GOP economic disasters for the United States, a record which goes back to 1869.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-24-2020 at 11:05 PM.
  #260  
Old 03-24-2020, 11:21 PM
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Total nonsense.
  #261  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:28 AM
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nm

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  #262  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:39 PM
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I suspect that the stock market is rising because the Fed is giving money to banks, who are loaning money to corporations, who are buying back their shares.

Is there any way to test this hypothesis, one way or another?
  #263  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:08 PM
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I suspect that the stock market is rising because the Fed is giving money to banks, who are loaning money to corporations, who are buying back their shares.

Is there any way to test this hypothesis, one way or another?
Looks like there's some data here: https://www.marketbeat.com/stock-buybacks/. You could correlate the companies that are doing buybacks against SEC filings data on debt loads, though probably not in realtime. The SEC filings might not be until quarterly results.

I think there's a simpler hypothesis: traders are betting that the fiscal bailout that Congress is about to pass will cause a steep rebound in the second half of the year. Fear and greed aren't rational, and the market is driven by them, and right now the pendulum seems to have swung to greed.
  #264  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:13 PM
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I follow a couple of technical analyst guys on Twitter who were saying that this rebound was going to happen this week almost regardless of the news. One, obviously mocking Wall Street, calls it "saving the quarter".
  #265  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:25 PM
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I'm not sure I buy anything any technical analyst says, but YMMV.
  #266  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:29 PM
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Eh, Sven Henrich has been calling this since August. The fact is that the stock market and bond markets have been massively propped up via repo arrangements and outsized RBMS purchases for about 2 years now. There were no fundamentals which supported Dow 30,000, none.
  #267  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:52 PM
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Eh, Sven Henrich has been calling this since August. The fact is that the stock market and bond markets have been massively propped up via repo arrangements and outsized RBMS purchases for about 2 years now. There were no fundamentals which supported Dow 30,000, none.
Suppose that Trump's re-election depends only on the stock market. Is there anything that can prevent his re-election if the Fed is committed to helping corporations buy back their shares?
  #268  
Old 03-25-2020, 02:31 PM
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Eh, Sven Henrich has been calling this since August. The fact is that the stock market and bond markets have been massively propped up via repo arrangements and outsized RBMS purchases for about 2 years now. There were no fundamentals which supported Dow 30,000, none.
Oh, I don't disagree with that at all. That's not really technical analysis; it's fundamental, value-oriented analysis. Technical analysis is all the mumbo jumbo I see showing up on my google news feed all the time about death crosses and support levels and prices crossing their 200-day moving averages, etc. I try my hardest to ignore all that.

Last edited by Do Not Taunt; 03-25-2020 at 02:32 PM.
  #269  
Old 03-25-2020, 02:38 PM
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Sven does both, that I cannot deny. The man loves his charts.
  #270  
Old 03-25-2020, 02:44 PM
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Sven does both, that I cannot deny. The man loves his charts.
Let me revise my statement: I don't trust anything a technical analyst says, if he's basing it on technical analysis.
  #271  
Old 03-25-2020, 03:14 PM
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If the stock market goes up much further, not only would I be surprised, but I'd be calling it what it is: opportunistic, short-term trading. Buying on the upswing.

There's no fucking way any "real" investing is going on right now except in a very limited number of businesses. Amazon might be one. Some health-care related companies. But across the market? No way. You're a sucker if you believe otherwise.

I would grudgingly agree with Trump/MAGAbots that the stock market isn't necessarily on its way to a nosedive just yet. A depression isn't inevitable just yet. And yes, the stimulus, flawed though it might be, is a relief for markets - agreed on those points.

But we're nowhere near the end of this, and if you want to get a sense for how bad things can get, both in terms of public health and the economy, just keep your eye on the White House's response.

If they take it seriously and can keep the Mango Mullah locked up in a basement long enough to stay out of his own way, then there's a chance we get past this by late summer.

If not, if he and republitards double down on an arbitrary deadlines, pushing businesses and other institutions to act on impulse, we're fucked - probably for years to come.
  #272  
Old 03-25-2020, 03:30 PM
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Suppose that Trump's re-election depends only on the stock market. Is there anything that can prevent his re-election if the Fed is committed to helping corporations buy back their shares?
The Times had an article today on buybacks. They have pretty much stopped due to both political and economic reasons. I think they are banned by the latest stimulus deal.

BTW, an index of companies doing buybacks shows that they fell 42% in value versus 34% for the S&P as a whole. Didn't say why - maybe because the buybacks tended to overvalue the stocks?
  #273  
Old 03-25-2020, 03:52 PM
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You, too, ignored post 135 to bring up meaningless data points.
Most of your posts in this thread are nothing but a combination of partisan hackery and meaningless statistics. Anyone with any knowledge of financial markets know equities are volatile in the short term.
  #274  
Old 03-25-2020, 03:54 PM
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If the stock market goes up much further, not only would I be surprised, but I'd be calling it what it is: opportunistic, short-term trading. Buying on the upswing.

There's no fucking way any "real" investing is going on right now except in a very limited number of businesses. Amazon might be one. Some health-care related companies. But across the market? No way. You're a sucker if you believe otherwise.

I would grudgingly agree with Trump/MAGAbots that the stock market isn't necessarily on its way to a nosedive just yet. A depression isn't inevitable just yet. And yes, the stimulus, flawed though it might be, is a relief for markets - agreed on those points.

But we're nowhere near the end of this, and if you want to get a sense for how bad things can get, both in terms of public health and the economy, just keep your eye on the White House's response.

If they take it seriously and can keep the Mango Mullah locked up in a basement long enough to stay out of his own way, then there's a chance we get past this by late summer.

If not, if he and republitards double down on an arbitrary deadlines, pushing businesses and other institutions to act on impulse, we're fucked - probably for years to come.
We might have a global depression. Itís not going to last 10-15 years though. If you canít afford downturns in stocks you canít afford to own stocks. Thatís all this is. From a financial point of view.
  #275  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:01 PM
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Most of your posts in this thread are nothing but a combination of partisan hackery and meaningless statistics. Anyone with any knowledge of financial markets know equities are volatile in the short term.
Anyone with a knowledge of economic history understands that Republicans suck at managing economies. You can find this out via a review of our national accounts, a history of stock fluctuations, a history of the nature and causes of America's post Civil War recessions, by almost any method which goes beyond conservative faith-based economics.

Call it partisan hackery all you want, the numbers and history just don't lie.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-25-2020 at 04:02 PM.
  #276  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:52 PM
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Anyone with a knowledge of economic history understands that Republicans suck at managing economies. You can find this out via a review of our national accounts, a history of stock fluctuations, a history of the nature and causes of America's post Civil War recessions, by almost any method which goes beyond conservative faith-based economics.

Call it partisan hackery all you want, the numbers and history just don't lie.
Stock market means what exactly? Your spin is blatantly false and partisan.

As long as productivity and innovation grows, which it has during both parties' time in power than the economy is improving. I don't know about you but the powerful computer I'm typing on is vastly better than the computer I had 20 years ago. THAT is one of the real indicators of productivity and progress.

The market capitalization of Apple is not.

Now, ownership in corporate entities is wise in the long term not the speculative short term which you are inappropriately fixating on for reasons known only to you because in the long term the economic growth of a large, stable, powerful nation such as the US is almost guaranteed to continue barring a planetary threat such as a large comet. At which point NO mechanism of investing is likely to be beneficial.

So instead of contributing to folks' anxieties about their investments and their financial security with dangerously misleading statistics of short term metrics why not do the right thing and present actual useful facts.

Last edited by octopus; 03-25-2020 at 05:54 PM.
  #277  
Old 03-25-2020, 06:30 PM
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I think we're seeing a dead cat bounce on the way to another leg down.

Just posting to see if I'm right.
  #278  
Old 03-25-2020, 06:56 PM
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That's my guess as well. We shall see.
  #279  
Old 03-25-2020, 07:34 PM
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Average annualized GDP growth by presidency, Truman through Obama
  #280  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:14 AM
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We might have a global depression. Itís not going to last 10-15 years though. If you canít afford downturns in stocks you canít afford to own stocks. Thatís all this is. From a financial point of view.
Right now - and yes it's a WAG - I'd probably assume that the stock market value this morning is in relatively close proximity to its real value --- pre-January. In other words, the recent nosedive has, to some degree, more accurately priced in the stock buybacks, the tax cuts, and the "value" of Trump's Red Bull energy drink policies. The sugar high is now over.

What it hasn't priced in yet is unemployment and a collapse in economic exchange. Stimulus will, to some extent, for a limited time, keep that fresh pile of turds buried in the kitty litter, but only for so long. In a few weeks, we'll not only still see this shit, but the maggots as well.
  #281  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:54 AM
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According to the TV, the record for new unemployment filings has been utterly shattered -- like 400% higher. Previous record was in the 600Ks -- last week was over 3 fucking million new claims. The economic impacts of this thing are utterly immense, and we're probably only seeing the beginning of them.
  #282  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:38 AM
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According to the TV, the record for new unemployment filings has been utterly shattered -- like 400% higher. Previous record was in the 600Ks -- last week was over 3 fucking million new claims. The economic impacts of this thing are utterly immense, and we're probably only seeing the beginning of them.
And yet the S&P 500 is rising steadily.
  #283  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:39 AM
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According to the TV, the record for new unemployment filings has been utterly shattered -- like 400% higher. Previous record was in the 600Ks -- last week was over 3 fucking million new claims. The economic impacts of this thing are utterly immense, and we're probably only seeing the beginning of them.
Right. The truly bad effects haven't started yet, because hospitals are still relatively functioning. I mean, sure, our local hospital has horror reports coming out of it with nurses being sent home as punishment for bringing their own masks to wear b/c the hospital has run out and is forbidding nurses to wear masks when treating patients not postiively identified; and there are those images of parking decks full of beds, ready for patients; and we know about what's happening in Italy.

But it hasn't struck us yet.

Next week, man. And the week after that. If you're not terrified, I don't know what to say.
  #284  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:05 AM
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And yet the S&P 500 is rising steadily.
See my post #271.

It makes absolutely no sense at all, which means that investors are betting on a bottom (something not connected to reality) or trading and taking profits.

"Investing" at a time when the market fundamentals don't really justify it isn't necessarily a problem -- until it is.
  #285  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:09 AM
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According to the TV, the record for new unemployment filings has been utterly shattered -- like 400% higher. Previous record was in the 600Ks -- last week was over 3 fucking million new claims. The economic impacts of this thing are utterly immense, and we're probably only seeing the beginning of them.
All well and good that people are getting $1200. But something like half the country is in danger of missing rents if they miss a month's worth of pay. We're gonna need helicopters full of cash for months.

Another consideration is that the state and local governments may not have the money to dole out. Like our healthcare emergency rooms, our economic emergency rooms calculate the 'normal' and the occasionally extra-normal. But they most likely didn't plan for this.

I will applaud the senate and the WH for momentarily living in reality, but I wonder how long they can pull off this charade.
  #286  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:41 AM
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And yet the S&P 500 is rising steadily.
Because this is entirely expected.
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