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  #151  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:33 PM
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I'm trying to decide what that threshold is. Could be a good two months of hyper-vigilance before gradually relaxing a bit. But it depends on the situation and the national response. If I see that the threat is getting closer and closer and nothing is stopping it, I might have to rethink that. I don't have a death wish, and I'd feel terrible if I infected her or other members of my family.
I think that's why testing is really important. Imagine if we had a map of census districts, color-coded based on case density (# confirmed cases per 100,000, let's say). If you knew your district was high density, you would probably be really vigilant about staying away other people, and everyone in that district would understand why they were being placed under a "shelter-at-home" order.

I like talking walks. I live in a neighborhood where the houses are close to the sidewalk. I've been walking in the middle of the street to maximize my distance from any one domicile and thus minimize my risk. It would be great if I had an app that would alert me if I was in close proximity to an address with a known carrier. Or alert me if the pedestrian approaching me on the sidewalk is a known carrier or lives with someone who is (as long as they are carrying their cell phone). I know this is an unrealistic dream. But it could be done if we had unrestricted testing and people shared their results with a data scientist with enough time on their hands.

Right now we're flying blind and that's maddening.
  #152  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:33 PM
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People are idiots. We're gonna get hit just as hard as Italy did.
Yes and no.

Yes we will have numbers just because we are a larger country.

But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.

We also have fewer connections with China.
  #153  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:35 PM
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Yes and no.

Yes we will have numbers just because we are a larger country.

But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.

We also have fewer connections with China.
"Easier to quarantine"

You may want to re-think that after you look at the pandemic hot spots.

And the connections with China are meaningless at this point. The virus is in every state, currently propagating through the communities. Even those with ZERO "connections with China"

Last edited by Euphonious Polemic; 03-25-2020 at 04:36 PM.
  #154  
Old 03-25-2020, 04:42 PM
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Yes and no.

Yes we will have numbers just because we are a larger country.

But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.

We also have fewer connections with China.
That's like saying, "at this point the arson is under arrest and no vegetation is in contact with his lighters, so we expect the wildfire to die down any day now"

"And luckily, we keep everyone's dry brush in one central location, so we don't have to worry about fires spreading into town!"

Last edited by Babale; 03-25-2020 at 04:43 PM.
  #155  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:19 PM
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But no because since we have fewer elderly and those we have, well the US has fewer living with families but whom live in nursing homes which are easier to quarantine.
Entire N.J. nursing home presumed to have COVID-19 as U.S. toll hits 800
  #156  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:33 PM
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Obesity is big factor for COVID-19 hospitalizations and mortality. So is diabetes. So is asthma.

We have a lot of folks with these conditions here in the US.
  #157  
Old 03-25-2020, 05:33 PM
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Those are the people most vulnerable and should be quarantined.
...what you don't seem to understand here is what is meant by vulnerable. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.

However you are imagining Covid-19 works isn't the reality. Quarantining only the old won't stop the spread of Covid-19, it won't take the pressure of the medical system and it won't flatten the curve.

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We also have fewer connections with China.
This...isn't how ANY of this works. This animation shows how viruses spread. You could have zero connections with China, and only a single case of Covid-19 and you would get the same exponential explosion of cases.
  #158  
Old 03-26-2020, 12:58 AM
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...what you don't seem to understand here is what is meant by vulnerable. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.
Hate to be the one, but you really need to be citing this sort of stuff. You are essentially spreading panic and misinformation; not once have I seen any footage, credible reports, or sources pertaining to 19-22 year olds being on ventilators.

I've actually seen this posted around everywhere, particularly the panic ridden subreddits - that teens to 20 somethings are having to take ventilators away from the old. Please, source this crap. I've read it everywhere and the statistics of this virus simply do not match up with that narrative.
  #159  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:08 AM
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Hate to be the one, but you really need to be citing this sort of stuff. You are essentially spreading panic and misinformation; not once have I seen any footage, credible reports, or sources pertaining to 19-22 year olds being on ventilators.
...do twelve year olds count?


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I've actually seen this posted around everywhere, particularly the panic ridden subreddits - that teens to 20 somethings are having to take ventilators away from the old. Please, source this crap. I've read it everywhere and the statistics of this virus simply do not match up with that narrative.
This isn't my narrative. I'm not spreading panic. If you reading stuff on subreddits that you disagree with then the appropriate place to address that is on that particular subreddit, not here. I don't know what the fuck this has to do with anything I said.

Oh, and welcome to the dope.
  #160  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:20 AM
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...do twelve year olds count?




This isn't my narrative. I'm not spreading panic. If you reading stuff on subreddits that you disagree with then the appropriate place to address that is on that particular subreddit, not here. I don't know what the fuck this has to do with anything I said.

Oh, and welcome to the dope.
You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. Vox
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Tweens and teens (10 to 19 years old)

The important stats on adolescents and just-turned-adults:

- In Spain, out of 221 cases for people 10 to 19, 15 of them have been hospitalized, a 7 percent rate; none have ended up in intensive care. One person in this age range has died, a 0.4 percent fatality rate.
- Italy and South Korea have reported no fatalities for this group; China reports that 0.2 percent of cases for these young people end in death.
- In the US, there had been no ICU admittances or deaths reported among people under 20 as of late last week; only a small percentage (1.6 percent) had been hospitalized.
  #161  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:38 AM
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You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. Vox
...can you point out the people that are panicking because of my (pretty mild, uncontroversial in context) statement? Just one person panicking would be enough to suffice. My statement said nothing about risk which was what your cite is all about. I made a simple, factual statement that both my cite and your cite backs up.
  #162  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:58 AM
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My cite does not back you up actually, as at the time of its writing there weren't any 10-20 year olds in ICU.
  #163  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:04 AM
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My cite does not back you up actually, as at the time of its writing there weren't any 10-20 year olds in ICU.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Banquet Bear View Post
...what you don't seem to understand here is what is meant by vulnerable. Those 70 plus people that are wandering around the supermarket are probably more likely to be hospitalised and die from Covid-19. But the 22 year-old waiter or the 19 year-old student are equally vulnerable to catching and spreading Covid-19. And being 22 years of age does not make you immune to being hospitalised or from dying of Covid-19. There are people that age tying up hospital resources on ventilators as we speak.
...what my cite said: a twelve year old on a ventilator.

What your cite says: a (small) percentage of 20-30 year old people in ICU.

Both cites back up what I said. Nothing I said spreads panic and misinformation. I made a simple, factual statement that both my cite and your cite backs up.
  #164  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:07 AM
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Whatever you say.
  #165  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:24 AM
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Why? When I went to the grocery store there were several elderly people easily plus 70 years walking around with no masks on.

Those are the people most vulnerable and should be quarantined.

NOT the 22 year old waiter who just lost his job or the 19 year old whos college was closed.

No, I know darn well how this virus works plus I see the economic and social impact on our society.
You may understand how the virus works and not understand the impact it will have on the health system.

I've got news for you: one in six people will need hospitalization, and many of those one in six are well below the age of 70, and in some cases, quite young. More than that, it's not just old people getting sick - that's a terrible misconception. It's anyone with an underlying condition, and guess what? About 40% of this country has a huge underlying condition called obesity.

It's a numbers game, Urban. The health system hasn't calculated the epidemic. It never factored that into the system the way it did even a bad strain of influenza. Do you get that?!

If young people say "Screw it, I'm gonna live life" and go out infecting just other young people, you're going to have tens or even hundreds of thousands of other young people so sick that they will stagger into ICUs all over America gasping for air. And if you get enough of them concentrated into one place at the same time, that creates a health triage crisis.

But beyond that, who exactly is the young waiter supposed to serve food to? Who are your consumers going to be? Who's going to consume and keep the economy going -- fresh college graduates with six figure debt?

I mean get real.

You fundamentally don't understand what's going on. Take a break from Fox News and do some reading once in a while.

Last edited by asahi; 03-26-2020 at 07:26 AM.
  #166  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:31 AM
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You kind of are spreading panic. A pretty insignificant number of 10-20 year olds will need ventilators. Vox
That's true, but pretty unimportant to point out. It's not an insignificant number overall, across all ages. The 10 or 12-person medical team of anesthesiologists, radiology technicians, ER physicians, pulmonologists, and other members of the medical team and assistants really don't have time to consider someone's age. The bodies just start piling up to the point where they not only can't do their job, but end up getting themselves sick, putting even further strain on the system.

I'm not saying you're doing this, but nitpicking about who's most at risk is a fool's errand. What really matters is getting the total numbers of infected down, getting the number of disease vectors down. It's a game of math, and we're losing.

Last edited by asahi; 03-26-2020 at 07:32 AM.
  #167  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:48 AM
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I think a good way to illustrate the math wrt to the "flattening the curve" is talking about hospitalizations. If 50% of America gets covid-19, an average of about 20% will require a hospital stay, (330Mื.5ื.2) so about 33M. In 2018, the CDC said there was about 7.9% of Americans who required a hospital stay, (330ื.079) so about 26M. There's probably some overlap of people who would've required hospital treatment but you can see this conservative estimate shows hospitals will likely have over double the normal patients this year.
  #168  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:39 AM
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You fundamentally don't understand what's going on. Take a break from Fox News and do some reading once in a while.
Maybe you need to take a break from CNN.

Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens.
  #169  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:45 AM
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This...isn't how ANY of this works. This [URL="https://www.dezeen.com/2020/03/22/coronavirus-animations-toby-morris-siouxsie-wiles-design-graphics/"
animation [/URL]shows how viruses spread. You could have zero connections with China, and only a single case of Covid-19 and you would get the same exponential explosion of cases.
I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.

Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
  #170  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:14 AM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. .
Maybe we shouldn't be washing our hands so much. We are robbing our grandchildren's fresh water supply.
  #171  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:23 AM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.

Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
Just imagine how many people have been infected by pot luck meals!

CMC fnord!
  #172  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:51 AM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected. A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.

Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
That and as some scientists are pointing out, real-life infections don't work the way some of the numbers are being presented. The 1 person=2.3 new infections for instance. In reality, since most people tend to interact with mostly the same people everyday, so infections don't spread as fast and can be contained.

The lockdown is necessary though.
  #173  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:41 PM
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I suppose that animation works if ZERO preventative measures are taken and under ideal conditions. Your not taking into account people who do get the virus on their hands might wash it off before they are infected.
...this was a simplified animation put together by the head of the Bioluminescent Superbugs Lab at the University of Auckland to help laypeople like you understand how Covid-19 spreads, and how social distancing can break the chain of transmission. So don't fight the hypothetical.

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A sick person might NOT give it to someone else because other people keep their distance and dont shake hands.
in other words, a sick person might not give it to someone else because they are practicing safe distancing? Congratulations. You might finally be understanding how this all works.

Quote:
Really if that animation was true (and I mean absolutely true with no preventive measures) I'd think the whole country would be infected by now. Remember this all started back in November.
In the last few minutes America raced ahead of both China and Italy in number of total cases of Convid-19. Considering how little testing is happening and the inconsistency of how different states are handling this crisis the actual number is probably significantly higher. And considering how weak the Federal response has been I think we are going to see this number spiral out of control.

This has barely started for America. The worst is yet to come. Save lives. Just stay home.
  #174  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:45 PM
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Maybe you need to take a break from CNN.

Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens.
They may not be flooding the cemeteries (yet), but they're flooding the hospitals already.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...m6912e2-F2.gif

Whether they die or not isn't the only consideration; if you encourage young people to carry on as if this isn't a big deal, you're going to crush the healthcare system. As I've said: the healthcare system doesn't have enough beds, enough doctors, enough medicines.

We're in the early innings of a long game, urbanredneck. And the hospitalization rates and the fatality rates are growing exponentially.
  #175  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:28 PM
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Maybe you need to take a break from CNN.

Well we will just have to see now wont we. I guess if your right and millions of people under age 60 start flooding our hospitals and later our cemeteries, you will be right. Right now thousands of spring breakers have recently returned from going their usual crazy selves in Florida and yes, some have been reported to have the virus. Lets see what happens.
The CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report has an article posted on Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) — United States, February 12–March 16, 2020

The money quote:

Quote:
Among 121 patients known to have been admitted to an ICU, 7% of cases were reported among adults ≥85 years, 46% among adults aged 65–84 years, 36% among adults aged 45–64 years, and 12% among adults aged 20–44 years (Figure 2). No ICU admissions were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Percentages of ICU admissions were lowest among adults aged 20–44 years (2%–4%) and highest among adults aged 75–84 years (11%–31%) (Table).
Let that sink in: very nearly half (48%) of those admitted to an ICU were working-age adults, aged 20 to 64. They weren't admitted to ICU for shits and giggles; they required extensive medical intervention, which may or may not have included ventilators.

The younger you are, the more likely you are to survive a spell in ICU, but that is still a bed occupied and staff involved, which works only as long as the beds and staff are available.
  #176  
Old Yesterday, 01:33 PM
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Florida finally issues a stay at home order, for only half the state. The spread is already exponential.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill...-florida%3famp
  #177  
Old Today, 06:03 AM
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  #178  
Old Today, 07:45 AM
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I wonder how much the fact that it's Trump is making this more controversial than it should.
For one thing, one of the drivers of the "let's sacrifice Granny on the alter of Mammon" trial balloons is fear on the right that the GOP is big-red-capital-Superman-"S" screwed as a result of Trump's bungling this crisis.
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  #179  
Old Today, 08:36 AM
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They may not be flooding the cemeteries (yet), but they're flooding the hospitals already.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...m6912e2-F2.gif

Whether they die or not isn't the only consideration; if you encourage young people to carry on as if this isn't a big deal, you're going to crush the healthcare system. As I've said: the healthcare system doesn't have enough beds, enough doctors, enough medicines.

We're in the early innings of a long game, urbanredneck. And the hospitalization rates and the fatality rates are growing exponentially.
Does the US have a website with a detailed national epidemiological summary, the way Canada does?

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-19-cases.html
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  #180  
Old Today, 09:57 AM
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Well if news from Italy and Spain are to be believed, 3 weeks is when people start to seriously chafe

https://www.ft.com/content/eb81dc96-...a-bf88653b0b8d
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