Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #601  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:55 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,129
Here in NC all public universities are now only doing classes online, all in person classes are cancelled. Duke also did the same , not sure about other private universities here like Wake Forest, Davidson, Elon, etc.

Not worried much myself , I am lucky that I work at home.

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 03-11-2020 at 09:55 PM.
  #602  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:57 PM
RickG is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Boulder CO USA
Posts: 834
Quote:
Originally Posted by C3 View Post
Ha, we can always hope! We have a trip to Australia planned for late June. Our insurance doesn't reimburse us if we cancel just because we're worried, so we're just going to hold tight until we get a lot closer and hope for the best. Either all hell will have broken out by then or we're headed to Sydney.
My son and I have tickets to London for his Spring Break in 9 days. Europe travel restrictions don't apply to the UK so far, but I'm a bit concerned, not so much about getting sick, but about getting quarantined in London or Dallas (our port of entry) causing him to miss the start of his final quarter of college.

The airline, BA, is only offering free changes for new bookings, and ours are from December, so rescheduling would be very costly, as would cancellation of non-refundable tickets. We're lucky that we can afford the loss of a couple thousand dollars, but I was really looking forward to spending the time with my son. On the plus side, our hotel reservation is cancellable, so the airfare is the only potential loss.

We're waiting until Sunday to make the final decision on changing/cancelling the trip.
  #603  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:16 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,482
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
I'm still not particularly worried about the disease itself.

But I'm starting to get worried about the response to the disease.
It's both.

You don't want panic, but you absolutely want to get ahead of this disease. It's better to overreact than to fail to react and have people not trust the information they're getting from official sources.
  #604  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:20 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,482
One thing you can be sure of: while we're not testing, the virus is spreading. It doesn't care whether we're manipulating the numbers for political purposes; it's making people mildly ill, allowing them to spread the disease in clusters, and making some people extremely ill, and even killing them. And this is repeating itself over and over and over again, in airports, in bus stations, in train stations, in stadiums, movie theaters, concert halls, schools, and other public gatherings large or small.
  #605  
Old 03-12-2020, 01:39 AM
RioRico is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 2,389
COVID concerns? This has been mentioned somewhere but I'll focus again on SPRING BREAK. Paid events can be and are cancelled. No-admission party towns aren't so easy to close down. If transport is restricted to offshore orgy sites, US partiers will stream to domestic targets by road. Will we see roadblocks around Santa Cruz and Daytona? Many of those partiers will be young and healthy but the staffs serving them won't be so. I look for a huge explosion of cases after Easter.
  #606  
Old 03-12-2020, 07:37 AM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,482
I'm now beginning to see some encouraging signs. It's not because of any response from the White House; it's coming from institutions, organizations, and local governments. We're fortunate that they're starting to do the job that the federal government has not.

Re: Spring break, more and more schools are extending spring break and moving to online instruction, so the word is getting out that social distancing is *the* best option right now.
  #607  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:35 AM
Jackmannii's Avatar
Jackmannii is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: the extreme center
Posts: 33,007
I'm concerned that I may not be able to get rid of this earworm.

Look out all of you big strong men
Coronavirus is back again
We got ourselves in a terrible jam
'cause a virus spread from old Wuhan
So put on your masks, don't shake hands
A pandemic's stalking the land

And it's 1, 2, 3, what are we coughing for
Don't tell me, I feel real blue
Next stop's the I.C.U.
And it's 4, 5, 6, open up the pearly gates
There ain't no time to wonder why
We all gonna die
  #608  
Old 03-17-2020, 03:53 AM
eenerms is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Finally...Wisc...!
Posts: 3,078
Looking back on when I started this thread, itís sure changed many peopleís concern. Here we are trying to get back to the USA! Today!
  #609  
Old 03-17-2020, 10:43 AM
overlyverbose is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: STLMO
Posts: 6,427
Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
COVID concerns? This has been mentioned somewhere but I'll focus again on SPRING BREAK. Paid events can be and are cancelled. No-admission party towns aren't so easy to close down. If transport is restricted to offshore orgy sites, US partiers will stream to domestic targets by road. Will we see roadblocks around Santa Cruz and Daytona? Many of those partiers will be young and healthy but the staffs serving them won't be so. I look for a huge explosion of cases after Easter.
I'd agree with this sentiment regarding Spring Break - I'm really shocked how many of my friends and neighbors are going on their vacations, driving down to Florida, hitting up restaurants and bars and running in 5ks - and that the 5ks are still happening, for that matter. A few minutes ago, a friend posted a picture on facebook of her in a crowd of people running a St. Patrick's Day race. Yet another friend was shocked when they were turned back in the LA airport on their way to a vacation in Australia. They were a little outraged that they'd be expected to self-quarantine for 14 days.

Anyway, there's a reason that we're all being asked to stay home. Spreading that shit all over creation, saying, "Well, I'm clean! I wash my hands! We're all gonna get it anyway, and we shouldn't stop living our lives," is kinda ridiculous.
  #610  
Old 03-17-2020, 01:12 PM
Roderick Femm's Avatar
Roderick Femm is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: On the cusp, also in SF
Posts: 7,537
I have a friend who is much more worried, about me, than I am. She is in her mid-50's, single, and self-isolating because she went on a trip to a conference a couple of weeks ago and now regrets it (she was giving a talk there). I am 70 and my husband is 72 and we are both functioning adults, but she has informed me that she is going to be checking on me via text every day, asking how I am and if I have food. As if we are both going to fall over and be unable to move, without warning, at the same time, so that only her intervention will save us.

I appreciate the concern, I guess, but it's simply not realistic. She has a centenarian neighbor and friend, this kind of checking in would be appropriate for her. I know 70 and 72 sounds old to a lot of people, but it really isn't. And if one or both of us gets taken ill, it's not her I'm going to call, I'm going to get medical help.

I attribute this behavior on her part to her need to always be ahead of the curve in whatever people "in the know" are doing. I'm not going to tell her my opinion of her behavior, because most of the time I enjoy her company, so I will answer her texts briefly as and when I see them. But still, there aren't enough rolleyes.

This post may not be precisely relevant to this thread, but I had to vent somewhere.
  #611  
Old 03-17-2020, 01:19 PM
TroutMan's Avatar
TroutMan is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 5,242
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roderick Femm View Post
I attribute this behavior on her part to her need to always be ahead of the curve in whatever people "in the know" are doing.
I think the need to just do something is a major motivator. People feel helpless, so they try to find anything they have some control over, whether it's needed or not.
  #612  
Old 03-17-2020, 02:25 PM
Surreal is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 2,253
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
CFR in Japan is so far about 2.8%.

CFR in South Korea about 0.6%.

What do you hypothesize is the most likely reason for the difference in the CFRs? Is medical care far superior in South Korea? Are South Koreans in general much healthier with less chronic disease?
At the time this was posted I think something like 85% of the cases in Korea had been identified in the previous 2 weeks, so it's not surprising that the CFR was so low. It often takes weeks to die from this. There are currently 8320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths for a CFR of just under 1%.

Another huge factor you neglected is the age distribution of the coronavirus outbreak in Korea. Patient 31 infected several members of the Shincheonji cult, which apparently is mostly young people. As a result there are now more Koreans in their 20s who have tested positive for the virus than there are people over 60:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-cases-by-age/
  #613  
Old 03-17-2020, 05:10 PM
Ulfreida is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: pangolandia
Posts: 3,932
It's fun to scroll through from the beginning to the end of this thread.

Back when Wuhan was beginning to be in the news, my husband bought two gallons of hand sanitizer and a blood oxygen tester (the finger thing). He said it was going to be much much worse than anyone was imagining, in the US. We thought he was being paranoid.
  #614  
Old 03-17-2020, 10:02 PM
puzzlegal's Avatar
puzzlegal is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 5,549
I was able to order a blood oxygen thing on-line yesterday. All the popular vendors still have them. (When I was unable to find hand sanitizer a week ago, I noticed a stack of them in the drug store, too, but didn't think to buy one then.)

I kinda wish I'd bought that large bottle of 95% rubbing alcohol I put back on the shelves, but I don't really use hand sanitizer at home. We have a lot of soap.
  #615  
Old 03-18-2020, 10:18 PM
Magiver is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Dayton Ohio USA
Posts: 29,026
If the numbers are consistant, Italy will surpass China in total deaths tomorrow (19-Mar-2020)
  #616  
Old 03-18-2020, 10:44 PM
Shmendrik is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,680
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magiver View Post
If the numbers are consistant, Italy will surpass China in total deaths tomorrow (19-Mar-2020)
In officially reported total deaths. Obviously in the real world they are still way behind China and Iran.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk
  #617  
Old 03-21-2020, 09:36 PM
coolup is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 7
Not really concerned now thanks to my Subaru first aid kit https://www.subarupartspros.com/sku/soa868v9501.html I feel like this would help me today as I step outside my house to get some supplies hahahaha
  #618  
Old 03-21-2020, 10:54 PM
Mijin's Avatar
Mijin is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 9,513
Quote:
Originally Posted by Surreal View Post
At the time this was posted I think something like 85% of the cases in Korea had been identified in the previous 2 weeks, so it's not surprising that the CFR was so low. It often takes weeks to die from this. There are currently 8320 confirmed cases and 81 deaths for a CFR of just under 1%.

Another huge factor you neglected is the age distribution of the coronavirus outbreak in Korea. Patient 31 infected several members of the Shincheonji cult, which apparently is mostly young people. As a result there are now more Koreans in their 20s who have tested positive for the virus than there are people over 60
Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik
In officially reported total deaths. Obviously in the real world they are still way behind China and Iran.
You know that for a fact?

Let me tell you what it's like living in China right now: moving back to normal every day. Most restaurants, bars and gyms have reopened (albeit with things like occupancy restrictions e.g. max 60 people in the gym at one time).
Even some state-owned public places like museums have reopened. The temporary hospitals have closed.

So what is the reality?
Is it that there are still lots of cases, but the government has suspended measures to contain the virus regardless? Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
  #619  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:06 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,594
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mijin View Post
Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.



You know that for a fact?

Let me tell you what it's like living in China right now: moving back to normal every day. Most restaurants, bars and gyms have reopened (albeit with things like occupancy restrictions e.g. max 60 people in the gym at one time).
Even some state-owned public places like museums have reopened. The temporary hospitals have closed.

So what is the reality?
Is it that there are still lots of cases, but the government has suspended measures to contain the virus regardless? Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
The worry is what happens in 5 to 6 weeks.

Are higher risk individuals maintaining social distance protocols? Are people still vigilant about self quarantine if sick? The odds that it wonít come back as controls are eased are very low. Can they control the curve as it does?
__________________
Oy.
  #620  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:10 PM
Baron Greenback's Avatar
Baron Greenback is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Scotland
Posts: 12,142
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mijin View Post
So what is the reality?
Is it that there are still lots of cases, but the government has suspended measures to contain the virus regardless? Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
Maybe move the sick to wherever the Uighar are these days?
  #621  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:10 PM
Shmendrik is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,680
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mijin View Post
Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.







You know that for a fact?


...

Or is it that it was much more severe than the official figures but had a cliff-face dropoff in cases?
Yes. A complete lockdown will stop transmission of the virus whether your baseline number of cases is 10,000 or 1 million. There are multiple reliable reports from China that the government was under counting cases and deaths in Wuhan. There are videos showing stacks of bodies being transported in minibuses at a time that the claimed death rate was several dozen per day, in a city of 10 million.

When Dr Li Wenliang died, the Chinese government (at whatever level) had the hospital make a statement saying he hadn't died, which was itself reversed a few hours later. This was all reported on reliable international news sources such as the BBC, not conspiracy theory websites. I'm not sure why anyone would trust official figures coming from China.

As far as Iran goes, there is satellite evidence showing mass graves being dug in Qom around the time they reported their 1st two deaths.

Last edited by Shmendrik; 03-21-2020 at 11:10 PM.
  #622  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:47 PM
Mijin's Avatar
Mijin is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 9,513
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baron Greenback View Post
Maybe move the sick to wherever the Uighar are these days?
What's happening with the uighar is terrible, and I have said so here before. I'm not some apologist for the chinese government.
But it's nothing to do with the topic at hand.
  #623  
Old 03-21-2020, 11:57 PM
Mijin's Avatar
Mijin is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 9,513
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
Yes. A complete lockdown will stop transmission of the virus whether your baseline number of cases is 10,000 or 1 million. There are multiple reliable reports from China that the government was under counting cases and deaths in Wuhan. There are videos showing stacks of bodies being transported in minibuses at a time that the claimed death rate was several dozen per day, in a city of 10 million.

When Dr Li Wenliang died, the Chinese government (at whatever level) had the hospital make a statement saying he hadn't died, which was itself reversed a few hours later. This was all reported on reliable international news sources such as the BBC, not conspiracy theory websites. I'm not sure why anyone would trust official figures coming from China.
Let's be clear: I don't trust the Chinese government at all, especially when it comes to lies by omission.

However, it's not possible to take the general observation that the government lies to make specific inferences. It's not some riddle where China must answer every question with a lie; obviously the majority of the time, as a practical matter, the truth is necessary.

A lot of information is being shared on social media of who has been diagnosed, from what residential building and with photos of the people being tested and/or taken to hospital.
So...what is even the theory here? That they are allowing this information to only be shared for a subset of cases? And at the same time relaxing the containment rules? For what purpose? It doesn't even make sense.

If China is saying deaths are X thousand, and someone wants to assert the true deaths are much more, I would want to see some supporting evidence or at least a good argument. "The Chinese government is not to be trusted" is insufficient in itself.
  #624  
Old 03-22-2020, 01:33 AM
Shmendrik is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,680
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mijin View Post

A lot of information is being shared on social media of who has been diagnosed, from what residential building and with photos of the people being tested and/or taken to hospital.

So...what is even the theory here? That they are allowing this information to only be shared for a subset of cases? And at the same time relaxing the containment rules? For what purpose? It doesn't even make sense.



If China is saying deaths are X thousand, and someone wants to assert the true deaths are much more, I would want to see some supporting evidence or at least a good argument. "The Chinese government is not to be trusted" is insufficient in itself.

The theory is that things got a lot worse in Wuhan before they got better. The evidence is that there were videos showing mass disease and death at a time when the official numbers were not concordant with that, which imply the numbers were being greatly underreported.

Last edited by Shmendrik; 03-22-2020 at 01:33 AM.
  #625  
Old 03-22-2020, 08:22 AM
Shalmanese is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Shenzhen, China
Posts: 7,362
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
The theory is that things got a lot worse in Wuhan before they got better. The evidence is that there were videos showing mass disease and death at a time when the official numbers were not concordant with that, which imply the numbers were being greatly underreported.
Yeah, but even the Chinese government is admitting that the case count underestimates the severity of the disease, not for any malicious reason, but simply because it's impossible to track every case in the middle of a pandemic. In China, there were stories of people dying suddenly and their bodies being burnt to prevent transmission where we'll never know if they died of COVID 19 or a more mundane causes (remember, once you're over 65, you have about a 2+% chance of dying every year and there's 5.5 million people in Hubei over 65 so you'd expect 40+K old people dying anyway during the lockdown, many of them with generic pneumonia/flu like symptoms).

Italy is reporting the exact same thing and it's rich hearing this accusation from the US where the defining feature of the pandemic response has been a lack of testing. If you go on American social media, all you hear are stories of people coming down with a mysterious flu like illness a month ago, being denied testing and now they're better.

China doesn't really lie for the outside world, it's mainly lying to control the Chinese people. China needs to convince people to go back to work and not be afraid which means they need to be 100% sure the virus is eliminated before that happens because everyone is on edge and super jumpy about another outbreak forming. Part of why they're sending so much aid overseas is to prove to the Chinese people that there are already enough masks/ventilators domestically to deal with the remaining cases that China truly can afford to give away supplies now.
  #626  
Old 03-22-2020, 08:52 AM
Shalmanese is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Shenzhen, China
Posts: 7,362
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
There are videos showing stacks of bodies being transported in minibuses at a time that the claimed death rate was several dozen per day, in a city of 10 million.
Yeah, that was because the once the lockdown started, official policy was all bodies were to be burnt immediately to prevent risk of transmission. Traditional Chinese funeral rites calls for Shou Ling (守灵) which is somewhat akin to the Jewish tradition of sitting Shiva where someone is sitting beside the corpse 24 hours a day for 3 days. This is, understandably, not a great practice in the middle of a pandemic. China, like all countries, had a significant share of people who didn't take the virus seriously in the early days and funeral rites are an important part of any culture so you had people lots of people practicing 守灵 in secret in defiance of the government and then getting sick. That's why they had to crack down so hard and enforce the burning of all bodies, even if the deceased died of a broken leg or something.

Also, the early days of quarantine were a mess and so you had a spike in deaths from things like people not being able to get their cancer medicines or the elderly suffering a fall in their apartment alone and not having anyone to call for help. You also had a ton of homeless people which, to this day, we're still not quite clear what happened to them since officially homelessness, is an uncomfortable topic that the Chinese Do Not Speak About in polite society.

None of this was hidden from the Chinese people, none of this was some huge revelation that happened after the lockdown was lifted. It's just that selective images from China were taken by Western media and the context was carefully stripped to make it seem way more sensationalist than it was.

Last edited by Shalmanese; 03-22-2020 at 08:53 AM.
  #627  
Old 03-23-2020, 09:51 AM
Surreal is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 2,253
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mijin View Post
Also of course Korea is leading the world in terms of testing. If Covid has a large proportion of mild cases then they are best placed to detect that and have a corresponding low CFR.
Korea's CFR isn't low, despite having a large percentage of twentysomethings from the Shincheonji cult in their infected population. Even though Korea's outbreak has basically stabilized, the death toll continues to rise as it can take up to 6-8 weeks for COVID-19 to kill you. There have been more than 30 additional deaths in the past week, bringing the CFR to over 1.2%.

Based on this, it's looking like the US CFR could end up being several percent.
  #628  
Old 03-23-2020, 11:22 AM
JohnT's Avatar
JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 24,635
I hope y'all are concerned enough to spare a couple of minutes to let your elected representatives and senators know how you think they're doing.
  #629  
Old 03-23-2020, 11:58 AM
jerez is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 823
A little more concerned, now that a friend of mine in the city is in the hospital. He's tested positive for the virus and has pneumonia. First time this has affected me directly, and I expect I'll hear of other stricken friends when this is over.
  #630  
Old 03-23-2020, 01:26 PM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,998
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
The theory is that things got a lot worse in Wuhan before they got better. The evidence is that there were videos showing mass disease and death at a time when the official numbers were not concordant with that, which imply the numbers were being greatly underreported.
I expect the numbers are vastly underreported everywhere. In China the government could cook the books. In the US they simply aren't testing people. It all results in an undercount.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:45 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017