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  #101  
Old 03-08-2020, 09:35 PM
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One of my favorite Twitter follows is Sven Henrich, founder of NorthernTrader.com. He wrote a fascinating piece today... let me quote:

Quote:
We’re faced with the most critical time since the financial crisis. That’s not my opinion, this is what the $VIX says. It’s behaving in a very unusual and rare way and everyone better pay very close attention. When I made the $VIX 46 call in January it seemed like an idiotic call to make for $VIX moves into the 40’s are extremely rare. But it happened and $VIX hit 46 a week ago and now on Friday $VIX hit 54 before again reverting below the trend line I had originally drawn in January (see Big Calls).

...

Last week’s panic rate cut by the Fed was a complete failure. Again the Fed misread the market and the incompetence is stunning. On February 20 and 21 Fed speakers were arrogantly cheerleading and arguing no rate cuts were necessary. Two weeks later they panic cut. The Fed has been wrong and chasing reality for years now. Everything they’ve done has been in response to markets, the balance sheet roll-off was a failure and now they have expanded to record treasury holdings, their rate cuts since 2019 have all been ineffective and now coronavirus, which in fairness they couldn’t have possibly seen coming, is wreaking havoc on the entire market construct.

...

Nobody can blame the Fed for the coronavirus, but what I will blame them for is the asset bubble they have created. The multiple expansion they unleashed on markets in 2019 and into early 2020 were a complete reckless disaster and now we’re possibly staring at the greatest bull trap ever.

...

The risk: That some funds are getting wiped out and over-leverage and unpreparedness and fear among retail investors will cause the calm passive investing trend to turn into ‘get me out at all cost’ panic selling. A systemic deleveraging the likes of which we have never seen before. And then it wouldn’t matter if the virus situation improves. The damage will already have been done, companies would have to tighten belts, lay off people and the business cycle would turn in earnest:

...

Markets recently reached higher valuations than even during the 2000 dotcom bubble. We were at 159% market cap to GDP just a few weeks ago, but now we have the highest debt levels ever on top of that. A credit bubble with the highest corporate debt ever. The consequence:

This is not 2000, this is not 2008, this is an entirely different beast here. And it’s angry. Very angry. And these next few weeks/days even hours may be absolutely critical.

...

The big macro concern remains the same: Let’s take the longest and slowest recovery business cycle & the most indebted global economy, use cheap money to jam markets to the highest market cap to GDP valuations ever and then shut down the global supply chain and then let’s see what happens with central bankers having the least ammunition available in any cycle.


...

So let’s also be clear: There is clearly an opportunity for control to be re-established. Central banks have managed to control volatility every single time it reared its head since the GFC. But right here and now they are challenged more than ever since the crisis. This is very binary. They either retain control or not.

...

Bottomline here:

We’re witnessing the most profound challenge to central bankers since the GFC. Their appeasement of markets since 2009 has left us all vulnerable. The constant subsidy of markets and the economy as led us to the largest credit and asset bubble in our lifetimes and the architects of the monstrosity have left themselves weak and depleted. They are now begging for fiscal stimulus from governments that are traditionally slow to react. The big bazookas will come the question whether it will be too late.
The bolded part is something I've been telling people: The stock market has remained "up" (until recently) because the Trump Administration has been pumping liquidity into the market, primarily through the old standby RBMS* purchases. Trump has understood that the DJIA is used as a form of shorthand with how well the economy is doing, and his administration has been doing all they can to keep the market afloat.

However, there's only so much bullshitting you can do and there's only so much bullshitting people will accept. And the time for bullshit is about over, if it's not already.

*Resident-Backed Mortgage Securities.
  #102  
Old 03-08-2020, 09:56 PM
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Also, a little bit about this oil thing.

In 1930, Doc Joiner hit oil on the Daisy Bradford #3 well in Rusk County, Texas, tapping into the single largest reservoir of oil found until that point, the 45 mile long by 8 mile wide "Texas Giant" reservoir, sending East Texas into a frenzy of activity during the early days of the Great Depression.

As one can expect, oil prices plummeted, from $1.85/bbl to $1.00/bbl... and then lower. Panic set in as overproduction occurred, with the oilmen producing over 500,000 barrels of distressed oil every day, driving prices down to as low as $.06/bbl by 1931, with some hot-runners selling it as low as $.02/bbl. Texas declared martial law, sent troops in to quell the rioting, then a federal judge ruled the martial law unconstitutional and the rioting and overproduction continued until the Department of the Interior, led by Harold Ickes, took control of the situation in 1934.

$1/bbl in 1932 is the equivalent of $18.50 today. The price of oil is expected to open @ $32/bbl tomorrow, only a 59% premium over the early part of the beginnings of the economically worst period in the history of the oil business.

Here in San Antonio, our frackers are fucked if SA, RU, and US go into a production war. This happened in 2015, but calm leadership in DC, working with RU and SA, prevented a production war, but for a few days there, it was possible that a repeat of the early 1930s was on the table.

However, this time may be different as the leadership in DC has... changed... and not for the better.

Can the Trump administration handle this crisis as well? Anyone want to take bets?

(For more on the East Texas Giant, I refer you to Daniel Yergin's The Prize, Chapter 13, "The Flood".)
  #103  
Old 03-09-2020, 09:21 AM
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Okay so what’s going on now? One of the circuit breakers was triggered and apparently stocks are still falling after the break. Does this mean anything or will it recover?
  #104  
Old 03-09-2020, 10:13 AM
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Yes. It will recover. Eventually. Just like eventually the sun comes up in the morning and summer follows winter.

The question is not "will it recover?" but WHEN.

What it means is that this pandemic is impacting the world economy. Which was expected by many people (including me). Where's the bottom? I don't know. Neither does anyone else.

PLEASE NOTE: this is NOT the zombie apocalypse. Personally, I'm certain we're looking at a global recession. Maybe even a depression. The economy is taking a big hit. A lot of people are going to be running around looking for some sort of safe harbor. There isn't one. Everyone has to ride out the storm, but yes, things will get better. Eventually. Just not today.

Covid-19 is a Black Swan event for the markets.
  #105  
Old 03-09-2020, 10:59 AM
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Yes it will recover eventually. I know there’s no crystal ball. I’m just sort of half expecting it to rebound sometime today or this week and then The Mango can claim he fixed it. And it’s very hard to tell what the virus is doing. Supposedly people are back at work in China.
  #106  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:25 AM
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The bolded part is something I've been telling people: The stock market has remained "up" (until recently) because the Trump Administration has been pumping liquidity into the market, primarily through the old standby RBMS* purchases. Trump has understood that the DJIA is used as a form of shorthand with how well the economy is doing, and his administration has been doing all they can to keep the market afloat.

However, there's only so much bullshitting you can do and there's only so much bullshitting people will accept. And the time for bullshit is about over, if it's not already.

*Resident-Backed Mortgage Securities.
I wonder how much credibility the Fed has now. Powell does seem prone to panic at this point, and he seems very susceptible to bullying by the president. A steady, independent hand at the Fed would be helpful, but even the perception of a steady, independent hand would probably help calm everyone. It does not appear that we have either.
  #107  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:40 AM
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Some of the drop is due to the realization that the Fed can't fix supply chain problems, only demand problems, and that people having more money is not going to get them on planes or cruise ships in the present circumstances.
We're moving into a situation in which we are experiencing both supply *and* demand problems. Rate cutting just removes one more tool from the Fed tool box, and rate cuts frankly have encouraged some irresponsible behavior in equities. The banks are fine - I'm not talking about the banking (S&L) side of things. But I am talking about lenders to businesses that are leveraged, and frankly a lot of big business has been getting involved in riskier and economically unproductive borrowing, like stock buybacks, which prop up their fake stock value but don't strengthen the employee/household (i.e, the average consumer).

People are about to find out that our "strong" economy...isn't really that strong. Without question, this type of shock event would hurt an economy that was more focused on stability than growth (i.e. a more socialized economy), but because we've been trying to pump up the boom side of the cycle, the bust is going to hurt like a mother. Count on it. We're headed for a deep recession. The only question right now is how long it lasts, and that depends a lot on the decisions that policymakers make - not just here in the US but elsewhere.

I think Jay Powell usually makes good decisions. He isn't always the clearest communicator, but he generally seems to know what he's doing. His challenge is that he's trying to stiff arm a very strong-minded but dim-witted leader of the free world who wants negative interest for no other reason than to serve his corrupt self interests. And he's got an army of dim-witted MAGAbots marching in lock step with him.
  #108  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:48 AM
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Who can POSSIBLY be surprised the stock market is plunging? I mean, precisely when it was going to happen wasn't a predictable thing, but some event was going to trigger a collapse. As Broomstick phrased it, COVID-19 is the black swan, and the thing is, there will always be one sooner or later.

Since Trump's election, it climbed fifty percent in three years, and that despite the fact that in November 2016 it has already been generally rising for years. It hardly takes a genius to tell you that the economy wasn't really fifty percent bigger or more productive than it was 2016, and that stocks were a bubble. We are headed for a massive, massive recession.
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  #109  
Old 03-09-2020, 12:09 PM
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Yes it will recover eventually. I know there’s no crystal ball. I’m just sort of half expecting it to rebound sometime today or this week and then The Mango can claim he fixed it. And it’s very hard to tell what the virus is doing. Supposedly people are back at work in China.
People never stopped working in China.

Yes, a lot of people weren't working, but that ignores everyone who continued to work, from the doctors and nurses to the folks pedaling food delivery bicycles.

Even if we get a brief bump upwards on a particular day an actual recovery isn't going to be for weeks, probably not for months, maybe longer.

I don't really think it's knowable at this point.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:00 PM
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I meant the people who had to stop work due to quarantines and were in production work.
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Old 03-09-2020, 01:12 PM
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People never stopped working in China.
That's correct - they didn't, and that's why I don't trust reports that the virus is contained in China. In Wuhan? Maybe, but I think it's still spreading in China as it is everywhere else. China can't afford to just stop working. The reason they hid the damn contagion in the first place is that they were already feeling economic pressure from tariffs and a general slowdown in the global economy even before corona, and they didn't want bad news causing fears that might disrupt production domestically and consumption globally. Turns out, it happened anyway.

But from what I can tell, China is going back to work in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen, virus be damned. They can be hyper-vigilant, but they're still spreading the virus, and I don't trust the government to report it accurately, not when their new internet laws basically ban "negative" or "harmful" information, or however it's phrased. The CCP is going to go to Cultural Revolution-like extremes to contain not the virus, but the damage to reputation and the loss of face.

So more people will be affected there. The Chinese government will test, they will quarantine, they'll round up the sick and the old and put them in make-shift death camps, er, hospitals, and they'll send everyone else right back out to work. But they probably won't tell the truth, and the virus will continue spreading there - and here - until it evolves into a less lethal strain (we hope).

And shit, from the looks of things, I kinda wonder if that isn't what Trump would like to do here. Problem is, he's going to be dealing with a lot of local health officials who will call it like they see it. And the local health officials will have the relatives of the sick, dying, and dead to back up their version of events, not Trump's.

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Yes, a lot of people weren't working, but that ignores everyone who continued to work, from the doctors and nurses to the folks pedaling food delivery bicycles.

Even if we get a brief bump upwards on a particular day an actual recovery isn't going to be for weeks, probably not for months, maybe longer.

I don't really think it's knowable at this point.
I pretty much agree with this. Even here in this country, I think there's going to be an awfully strong temptation to minimize the dangers associated with this virus. It'll be tempting to minimize it and let events like March Madness, golfing tournaments, marathons, graduation ceremonies, and the like continue as if this isn't really a big deal. It's still too commonly being compared to the flu, and the flu it is not. Granted, it's not SARS, smallpox, or the plague. But it's 10-20 deadlier than the flu, and I'm guessing that hospitalization rates are similar.

What ordinary people don't yet realize is that when this virus really gets some legs under it and starts spreading among large groups, the first consequence will be that healthcare workers will be under siege. And they, too, will join the ranks of the victims. Soon thereafter, we'll have a healthcare system that is already highly inefficient being placed under tremendous strain. I don't think the panic over markets and supplies right now is unjustified at all, and what worries me is that the virus has just barely made it on our shores. One has to wonder what this will look like once the virus is deeply embedded within population centers with economic inequality, limited access to resources, and yes, let's consider also the consequence of undocumented immigrants and their families who have no incentive to cooperate with local health officials at all. We're sitting on a public health and economic ticking time bomb.
  #112  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:16 PM
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One of my favorite Twitter follows is Sven Henrich, founder of NorthernTrader.com. He wrote a fascinating piece today... let me quote:



The bolded part is something I've been telling people: The stock market has remained "up" (until recently) because the Trump Administration has been pumping liquidity into the market, primarily through the old standby RBMS* purchases. Trump has understood that the DJIA is used as a form of shorthand with how well the economy is doing, and his administration has been doing all they can to keep the market afloat.

However, there's only so much bullshitting you can do and there's only so much bullshitting people will accept. And the time for bullshit is about over, if it's not already.

*Resident-Backed Mortgage Securities.
Good post, JT.
  #113  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:38 PM
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I, for one, am glad we have the soothing atmosphere of social media to guide us away from panics.
  #114  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:38 PM
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Hmm, trump has now invited Wall Street executives for a meeting later this week. He’s probably going to either ream them out for making him look bad or promise them some tax cuts to goose the markets to go back up or both. Apparently he already had meetings with cruise ship and airline CEOs.
  #115  
Old 03-09-2020, 02:02 PM
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We're moving into a situation in which we are experiencing both supply *and* demand problems. Rate cutting just removes one more tool from the Fed tool box, and rate cuts frankly have encouraged some irresponsible behavior in equities. The banks are fine - I'm not talking about the banking (S&L) side of things. But I am talking about lenders to businesses that are leveraged, and frankly a lot of big business has been getting involved in riskier and economically unproductive borrowing, like stock buybacks, which prop up their fake stock value but don't strengthen the employee/household (i.e, the average consumer).

People are about to find out that our "strong" economy...isn't really that strong. Without question, this type of shock event would hurt an economy that was more focused on stability than growth (i.e. a more socialized economy), but because we've been trying to pump up the boom side of the cycle, the bust is going to hurt like a mother. Count on it. We're headed for a deep recession. The only question right now is how long it lasts, and that depends a lot on the decisions that policymakers make - not just here in the US but elsewhere.
Totally agree. To add to the fun, in the old days when oil prices tanked, consumers got a boost. Today that is balanced by the oil industry getting clobbered. It seems a lot of producers have borrowed a lot at cheap rates to expand production. We'll see if they can survive.
Also, consumers seeing the crash and expecting a recession are not going to spend their gas cost cut. So that adds to the consumption cut.
  #116  
Old 03-09-2020, 02:10 PM
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Who can POSSIBLY be surprised the stock market is plunging? I mean, precisely when it was going to happen wasn't a predictable thing, but some event was going to trigger a collapse. As Broomstick phrased it, COVID-19 is the black swan, and the thing is, there will always be one sooner or later.

Since Trump's election, it climbed fifty percent in three years, and that despite the fact that in November 2016 it has already been generally rising for years. It hardly takes a genius to tell you that the economy wasn't really fifty percent bigger or more productive than it was 2016, and that stocks were a bubble. We are headed for a massive, massive recession.
See this thread. I've been expecting this for a while, and have moved my portfolio so the equity part is mostly stable, income-producing stocks.

My financial advisor told me a few months ago that the company guidance was that the market would stay strong for the rest of the because Trump would keep it up for the election. I thought this was over-estimating Trump's competence. Looks like I was right.
  #117  
Old 03-09-2020, 02:22 PM
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double post

Last edited by Skypist; 03-09-2020 at 02:25 PM.
  #118  
Old 03-09-2020, 02:37 PM
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But it's 10-20 deadlier than the flu, and I'm guessing that hospitalization rates are similar.
Maybe? The flu isn't one thing, so I'm not sure how to put a deadliness rating on it, and no one knows the deadliness of COVID-19 yet, since no one knows what the denominator of that fraction is (ie, how many people were infected.) AFAIK, the best data on that is still the Diamond Princess data, but it's only one cruise ship with a potentially non-representative sample of the population. Here's a good write up on that.
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Old 03-09-2020, 03:15 PM
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DJIA closed down 2,013 points @ 23,851.

Guys, I think DOW 25,000 is in play again!

#Winning
  #120  
Old 03-09-2020, 03:39 PM
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I'm seeing signs the Trump administration is taking things seriously: they're sending Mnuchin, Curly, and Kudlow to talk with Republicans tomorrow about a relief package.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WaPo
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House National Economic Council Larry Kudlow will meet with Senate Republicans at their lunch on Tuesday, according to two people briefed on the plans.

The meeting will come as the White House and Congress are looking at emergency steps to try and address the economic concerns that have arisen in the past few weeks tied to the virus.
Now call me crazy, but wouldn't now be the time FOR SOME BIPARTISAN MOTHERFUCKING COOPERATION?

If in the midst of a pandemic and an oil war that's crashing the stock market, you should be able to set aside your partisan differences and convene a meeting with both parties.

If now's not the time for compromise, we're fucked.
  #121  
Old 03-09-2020, 03:55 PM
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For a moment I read that as Trump calling for Moe, Larry and Curly.

What could go wrong by getting Dr Howard, Dr Fine and Dr Howard on the case?
  #122  
Old 03-09-2020, 04:13 PM
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For a moment I read that as Trump calling for Moe, Larry and Curly.

What could go wrong by getting Dr Howard, Dr Fine and Dr Howard on the case?
I may have added the Curly in there for exactly that reason.
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:16 PM
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The emergency steps suggested will be a cut in the corporate tax rate and in the individual withholding rate. The latter gives people more money to spend. This makes them feel good and might help Trump be reelected. Of course next April when taxes are due, they'll find out they've been under-withheld and owe taxes. This will be after the election though so that's not a problem ... for Trump and the Pubs.
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:53 PM
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I will consider this downturn and the trashing of my retirement plans to have been well worth it, if and only if this ends with prominent heads on pikes outside the gates of Pennsylvania Ave.
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Old 03-09-2020, 05:01 PM
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I'm seeing signs the Trump administration is taking things seriously: they're sending Mnuchin, Curly, and Kudlow to talk with Republicans tomorrow about a relief package.

Now call me crazy, but wouldn't now be the time FOR SOME BIPARTISAN MOTHERFUCKING COOPERATION?

If in the midst of a pandemic and an oil war that's crashing the stock market, you should be able to set aside your partisan differences and convene a meeting with both parties.

If now's not the time for compromise, we're fucked.
Now's the time for Trump to double down, Blame Obama and then go golfing.
  #126  
Old 03-09-2020, 05:49 PM
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I will consider this downturn and the trashing of my retirement plans to have been well worth it, if and only if this ends with prominent heads on pikes outside the gates of Pennsylvania Ave.
I hope this is a figure of speech. You woudn't ACTUALLY throw your retirement plans into the trashcan, would you?
  #127  
Old 03-09-2020, 06:14 PM
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The emergency steps suggested will be a cut in the corporate tax rate and in the individual withholding rate. The latter gives people more money to spend. This makes them feel good and might help Trump be reelected. Of course next April when taxes are due, they'll find out they've been under-withheld and owe taxes. This will be after the election though so that's not a problem ... for Trump and the Pubs.
Right, a payroll tax cut - especially helpful for hourly wage earners who are staying at home.
  #128  
Old 03-09-2020, 10:41 PM
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Guys, I gotta tell ya, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that the GOP and the entire conservative approach to economics just isn't capable of managing a post-slavery economy.

#1 in largest percentage drops to the DJIA
#1 in largest point drops in the DJIA
Our Greatest Recession
Our Greatest Depression

... all a result of GOP policies.
  #129  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:20 AM
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I will consider this downturn and the trashing of my retirement plans to have been well worth it, if and only if this ends with prominent heads on pikes outside the gates of Pennsylvania Ave.
Unless you are retiring very soon, and if you still have a job, keep buying. I did in 2008 and was damn glad I did.
  #130  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:26 AM
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DJIA closed down 2,013 points @ 23,851.

Guys, I think DOW 25,000 is in play again!

#Winning
We're back to September 2017 or so. Another 4,000 points down, and we're back to January 2017.
Looking plausible.
  #131  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:43 AM
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... all a result of GOP policies.
Cite?
  #132  
Old 03-10-2020, 03:07 AM
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Unless you are retiring very soon, and if you still have a job, keep buying. I did in 2008 and was damn glad I did.
I have a friend who just turned 65 and his wife was planning to retire in August. His statement on this stock market event would, in many venues, be composed entirely of asterisks or censoring bleeps.

They're not going to starve. They might very well have a much reduced standard of living.
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Old 03-10-2020, 05:08 AM
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Cite?
History.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-10-2020 at 05:08 AM.
  #134  
Old 03-10-2020, 07:20 AM
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Dead cat bounce today. Will it stay bounced until 4pm? We will see.
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:17 AM
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You know, D’Anconia, you deserve a better response than the above flippant ‘5am-bleary-eyed-check-the-phone’ reply, so here it is.

Top 20 drops in the DJIA by points:
  • 1 2020-03-09 23,851.02 −2,013.76 −7.79% Republican
  • 2 2020-02-27 25,766.64 −1,190.95 −4.42% Republican
  • 3 2018-02-05 24,345.75 −1,175.21 −4.60% Republican
  • 4 2018-02-08 23,860.46 −1,032.89 −4.15% Republican
  • 5 2020-02-24 27,960.80 −1,031.61 −3.56% Republican
  • 6 2020-03-05 26,121.28 −969.58 −3.58% Republican
  • 7 2020-02-25 27,081.36 −879.44 −3.15% Republican
  • 8 2018-10-10 25,598.74 −831.83 −3.15% Republican
  • 9 2019-08-14 25,479.42 −800.49 −3.05% Republican
  • 10 2018-12-04 25,027.07 −799.36 −3.10% Republican
  • 11 2020-03-03 25,917.41 −785.91 −2.94% Republican
  • 12 2008-09-29 10,365.45 −777.68 −6.98% Republican
  • 13 2019-08-05 25,717.74 −767.27 −2.90% Republican
  • 14 2008-10-15 8,577.91 −733.08 −7.87% Republican
  • 15 2018-03-22 23,957.89 −724.42 −2.93% Republican
  • 16 2001-09-17 8,920.70 −684.81 −7.13% Republican
  • 17 2008-12-01 8,149.09 −679.95 −7.70% Republican
  • 18 2008-10-09 8,579.19 −678.92 −7.33% Republican
  • 19 2018-02-02 25,520.96 −665.75 −2.54% Republican
  • 20 2019-01-03 22,686.22 −660.02 −2.83% Republican
Now, points are a dumb way to do this, because a 1,000 point drop on Dow 25,000 is nowhere near as bad as 25 points on Dow 200, so….

Top 20 drops in the DJIA by percentage:
  • 1 1987-10-19 1,738.74 −508.00 −22.61% Republican
  • 2 1929-10-28 260.64 −38.33 −12.82% Republican
  • 3 1929-10-29 230.07 −30.57 −11.73% Republican
  • 4 1929-11-06 232.13 −25.55 −9.92% Republican
  • 5 1899-12-18 58.27 −5.57 −8.72% Republican
  • 6 1932-08-12 63.11 −5.79 −8.40% Republican
  • 7 1907-03-14 76.23 −6.89 −8.29% Republican
  • 8 1987-10-26 1,793.93 −156.83% Republican
  • 9 2008-10-15 8,577.91 −733.08% Republican
  • 10 1933-07-21 88.71 −7.55 −7.84% Democrat
  • 11 2020-03-09 23,851.02 −2,013.76% Republican
  • 12 1937-10-18 125.73 −10.57 −7.75% Democrat
  • 13 2008-12-01 8,149.09 −679.95% Republican
  • 14 2008-10-09 8,579.19 −678.92% Republican
  • 15 1917-02-01 88.52 −6.91 −7.24% Democrat
  • 16 1997-10-27 7,161.14 −554.26% Democrat
  • 17 1932-10-05 66.07 −5.09 −7.15% Republican
  • 18 2001-09-17 8,920.70 −684.81% Republican
  • 19 1931-09-24 107.79 −8.20 −7.07% Republican
  • 20 1933-07-20 96.26 −7.32 −7.07% Democrat

A little more balanced, 15-5 but note the Republicans holds the top nine spots (#Winning). The Democratic losses are Great Depression related (3), our entry into WW1 (1), and the 1997 ruble devaluation and the resulting Long Term Capital Management bailout (1).

… and before you respond with “Well, 6 of the Republican ones are GD related too”, I would like to note that the Republicans directed American economic policy from 1921-1933, so frankly, the Great Depression can be placed squarely on their shoulders, just as the Great Recession can be as well. (Going further, the Panic of 1873 and the subsequent depression was also during a string of Republican administrations (Grant (1869-1877), Hayes (1877-1881)), and I’m happy to discuss the causes of this, but very few are interested in 19th-century economic policy, alas.)

But, you know, movements in the DJIA are not exactly proof of my claim… just indicators… so let’s take another approach, shall we?

Since 1948 the Federal Reserve has published the Z1 report, entitled “Financial Accounts of the United States”. This report, for all intents and purposes, measures the balance sheet of our country to determine (line 31 in Appendix B1) the total National Net Worth of the US of A. And, as we all should’ve learned in high school:

Net Worth = (Assets – Liabilities)

So you take the complete value of the US's assets (human capital, physical capital, stocks, land, etc) subtract all of our debt (government, corporate, civilian), and you have the National Net Worth. And I prefer this yardstick because the growth of wealth is what’s truly important. GDP is a far more commonly used figure, but [analogy alert!] GDP measures income while the Z1 report measures wealth. Lord knows I’ve heard a variant of this a million times, even on the SDMB: You’re better off making $50k a year and saving $1k than you are making $100k a year and spending $110k. “GDP” wise, person 2 is doing better, but “Net Worth” wise, person 1 is doing better. [/analogy alert!]

Fortunately for us, I’ve reviewed 70 years of Z1.B1 reports, adjusted for inflation (2015 dollars), and correlated it to Presidential Administrations. And what did I find?

That Republicans just suck at creating wealth, that… with the exception of Eisenhower… the party is addicted to debt-fueled growth, and while this addiction might boost GDP and make it appear the country is growing wealthier, in fact, it isn’t.

Post 1948 Presidential Administrations ranked by Year-over-year compounded increases in National Net Worth as determined by the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States:
  • 1. Clinton, 5.08%, Dem
  • 2. Eisenhower, 5.06%, Rep
  • 3. Truman, 4.94%, Dem
  • 4. Johnson, 4.56%, Dem
  • 5. Kennedy, 4.46%, Dem
  • 6. Obama, 4.27%, Dem
  • 7. Ford, 3.38%, Rep
  • 8. Reagan, 2.85%, Rep (! Remember what I said about debt-fueled growth? You can lie to the GDP, but you can’t lie to the NNW!)
  • 9. Carter, 2.42%, Dem
  • 10. Nixon, 1.22%, Rep
  • 11. GHW Bush, 0.94%, Rep
  • 12. GW Bush, .14%, Rep

(Disclaimer: Partial data for the Truman Administration (1944-1948 was not measured), no data for the Trump Administration)

That last is amazing – Under Bush2, the total net worth of this country grew at an annual compounded rate of .14%! Not 14%, not 1.4%, but .14%! And his Dad wasn’t much better, tbh.

So… politics aside… there is strong correlative evidence published by the Federal Reserve which proves that Republican Administrations are horrible, simply horrible, at creating wealth.

I stand by my statement: The Republican party doesn't really know how to manage a post-1860, post-slavery economy. They just don't, and we're seeing it (AGAIN) today.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-10-2020 at 10:20 AM.
  #136  
Old 03-10-2020, 10:33 AM
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Looks like the dead-cat bounce lasted about two hours. After "roaring" to a near-800 point rise, the DJIA is down $77.
  #137  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:09 AM
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What is the administration's plan? Tax cuts, of course! Cut the payroll tax and gut the Social Security trust fund! What could go wrong?
  #138  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:09 AM
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Broke: Let's coordinate a drop in oil prices to destroy Russia.

Woke: Let's coordinate a drop in oil prices to destroy Texas.
  #139  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
What is the administration's plan? Tax cuts, of course! Cut the payroll tax and gut the Social Security trust fund! What could go wrong?
Oh, no. It's not that simple. They're also going to bailout the vacation industry. Which includes hotels. Especially hotels owned by a two-bit con artist cum President.
  #140  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnT View Post
Fortunately for us, I’ve reviewed 70 years of Z1.B1 reports, adjusted for inflation (2015 dollars), and correlated it to Presidential Administrations. And what did I find?

That Republicans just suck at creating wealth, that… with the exception of Eisenhower… the party is addicted to debt-fueled growth, and while this addiction might boost GDP and make it appear the country is growing wealthier, in fact, it isn’t.
That whole post was fascinating. Thanks.
  #141  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:33 AM
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Looks like the dead-cat bounce lasted about two hours. After "roaring" to a near-800 point rise, the DJIA is down $77.
And now it's up $169. Do you have an actual factual point to make?
  #142  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:37 AM
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Post 135 for facts.
  #143  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:53 AM
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Originally Posted by D'Anconia View Post
And now it's up $169. Do you have an actual factual point to make?
Do you?
  #144  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by D'Anconia View Post
And now it's up $169. Do you have an actual factual point to make?
JohnT goes to the work of composing a post that reviews over 70 years of economic history. You "refute" him by mentioning the latest 1-hour fluctuation in DJIA. Have you considered seeking a job in newscasting?
  #145  
Old 03-10-2020, 12:32 PM
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He already has one. Almost always lands them on the porch.
  #146  
Old 03-10-2020, 01:13 PM
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That was worthy of Elucidator. Good job!
  #147  
Old 03-10-2020, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Broomstick View Post
I have a friend who just turned 65 and his wife was planning to retire in August. His statement on this stock market event would, in many venues, be composed entirely of asterisks or censoring bleeps.

They're not going to starve. They might very well have a much reduced standard of living.
Hope he has some bond funds, some of which are doing really well.
I had a friend who worked for IBM, and who got laid off near retirement just as IBM stock cratered. He had his entire 401K in IBM stock. Ouch.
  #148  
Old 03-10-2020, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnT View Post

That Republicans just suck at creating wealth, that… with the exception of Eisenhower… the party is addicted to debt-fueled growth, and while this addiction might boost GDP and make it appear the country is growing wealthier, in fact, it isn’t.

Post 1948 Presidential Administrations ranked by Year-over-year compounded increases in National Net Worth as determined by the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States:
  • 1. Clinton, 5.08%, Dem
  • 2. Eisenhower, 5.06%, Rep
We all know Ike was a Rino. Look at the tax rates during his term!

Awesome post! Thanks.
  #149  
Old 03-10-2020, 03:21 PM
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Guys, apparently all the bailouts floated by the Trump Administration, including

... Cruise ships
... Hotels
... Airlines
... Fracking companies
... The Oil Industry
... the shipping industry

has raised the DJIA by 1,100+ points.

Again: Americas economic system is socialism for the wealthy and connected, capitalism for everyone else.

You may not get a check, but your employer will get a payroll tax deduction which should... what was the term... trickle down to you.

(Please note that Trumps remarks today were all about the economic impact, and nary a word about the human impact. This, D'anconia, is why him... and his ideology... are monstrous.)

Last edited by JohnT; 03-10-2020 at 03:24 PM.
  #150  
Old 03-10-2020, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by JohnT View Post
Guys, apparently all the bailouts floated by the Trump Administration, including

... Cruise ships
... Hotels
... Airlines
... Fracking companies
... The Oil Industry
... the shipping industry

has raised the DJIA by 1,100+ points.

Again: Americas economic system is socialism for the wealthy and connected, capitalism for everyone else.
This is a bit off topic, but...

... I am perpetually amazed at the pearl-clutching of conservatives at the rising popularity of socialism. I am amazed despite the fact that *I* am a dyed-in-the-wool believer in capitalism and free markets, but the resurgence of interest in socialism and even communism is totally understandable; it's because of pigs like Donald Trump and his lackeys. It's because of utter horseshit like the 2008/2009 fiscal crisis where rich people made out like bandits and poor people suffered and the government shrugged its shoulders.

When you have rich pigs just shamelessly looting the working taxpayer right out in the open, it is absolutely, totally understandable that people would start to look at alternative systems. It would be frankly mystifying if they didn't.
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