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  #201  
Old 03-15-2020, 09:25 PM
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If he really cared, he'd find ways to make sure that the money goes right into the hands of the consumer; instead it's going into the banks' hands.

A bigger problem, though, is that Jay Powell's being bullied into making political decisions. The Fed is increasingly subject to political manipulation, and that's bad.
And it looks like futures markets agree with me: they no longer trust the fed, but what this really means is that they no longer trust that this mother fucking ape of a president knows what he doesn't know and to keep his fingers off the controls of the economy.

I said it before, and yes, I will say it again: this country is headed for an economic dip. The question is, how bad will it be, and the answer to that question will depend on the response. Presidents have no control over a recession - in most cases they can't be blamed for them. But they can be blamed for how they respond. The signs for this president and for this economy are ominous.
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Old 03-15-2020, 11:22 PM
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Congratulations to the GOP for giving America not just the Greatest of Recessions, not just the Greatest of Depressions, but also the current shitshow which will likely need a modifier greater than "Great".

Ah! I got it!

#TheBiglyDepression

Last edited by JohnT; 03-15-2020 at 11:24 PM.
  #203  
Old 03-15-2020, 11:39 PM
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I will say that I am a bit surprised (stupid me) as to how quickly Trump ruined the economy. I figured 5 years, 6 at most.

He took 3.
  #204  
Old 03-15-2020, 11:41 PM
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Will the market close tomorrow below what it was on 1/19/2017? Hell, will it open below 1/19/2017?
  #205  
Old 03-16-2020, 04:21 AM
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Excellent video with a lot of common sense:

Yanis Varoufakis on the economic & political impact of the coronavirus
  #206  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:30 AM
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The Bigly Depression is coming. It may already be here.

For reference purposes, here is the state of the market on the last full day of the Obama Administration:

http://daytradingstockblog.blogspot....arket.html?m=1

DJIA: 19,742
NASDAQ: 5,543
S&P 500: 22,263
Oil: 52.38
Gold: 1,206
Silver: 17.04

Last edited by JohnT; 03-16-2020 at 06:32 AM.
  #207  
Old 03-16-2020, 07:43 AM
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Thanks for the link! Common sense ... but common sense is often lacking in today's America. Yanis Varoufakis has a PhD in economics, has published books, has founded a political party (MeRa25 is part of the Democracy in Europe Movement 2025), and has served as Finance Minister.
  #208  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:39 AM
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Dow open 2,250 points lower. Down 9.71%. Trading immediately halted.

I'm not 100% on this, but this may be a speed record on halting trading. Last week we had a 4 minute gap between opening and halting, now I'm reading it was halted immediately upon opening.
  #209  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:43 AM
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BTW, since Friday, the Fed has injected $2.25 trillion into the markets via QE and RBMS supports, and frankly I don't know enough about the Repo markets to confidently speak to them, but the injections into those, daily, have equaled our military budget. Yes, each day.

And it's all vanishing.
  #210  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:46 AM
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Dow open 2,250 points lower. Down 9.71%. Trading immediately halted.

I'm not 100% on this, but this may be a speed record on halting trading. Last week we had a 4 minute gap between opening and halting, now I'm reading it was halted immediately upon opening.
Trading is resumed and it's down over 2700.
  #211  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:07 AM
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Guys and gals, I think I'm just going to have to wait on that much-needed post 135 update. At least for the duration of the emergency.
  #212  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:10 AM
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This may be premature, but I, for one, would like to offer my congratulations to Herbert Hoover.

It took 90-odd years, buddy, but you're likely no longer on the hook as the President who did the most damage to the American economy.
  #213  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:15 AM
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Trump is going to open his yap again this afternoon. I know there is a limit where they stop trading for the day. I wonder if we hit it during his speach.
  #214  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:19 AM
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We already hit it. And, if I recall correctly, that's it for the day - no more circuit breakers.
  #215  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:20 AM
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Yeah, he's great. Most trusted economist.
  #216  
Old 03-16-2020, 09:57 AM
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We already hit it. And, if I recall correctly, that's it for the day - no more circuit breakers.
According to Barrons, there is another breaker if the market goes under a 13% decline.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/wal...ow-51584362387

Last edited by GIGObuster; 03-16-2020 at 10:00 AM.
  #217  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:23 AM
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Thanks! I was looking for confirmation, but got called into a meeting.

Also, in a conference call which just ended, USAA... one of the larger insurance companies in America... is looking at going 100% work-from-home.
  #218  
Old 03-16-2020, 11:00 AM
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Apparently, the one I was thinking of was a 20% drop in the S&P500 then trading is shut down for the rest of the day.
  #219  
Old 03-16-2020, 12:02 PM
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Trump is going to open his yap again this afternoon.
Where are you seeing this? C-Span is saying it's going to be the Vice President.
  #220  
Old 03-16-2020, 12:29 PM
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To the lie which is American capitalism, note that we are a mere 4 weeks from all-time market highs and now we have zero rates, $700B in QE, $500B in repos, and a $1.5 trillion RBMS injection...

... and it's still not enough to save the system.
  #221  
Old 03-16-2020, 12:42 PM
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And it looks like futures markets agree with me: they no longer trust the fed, but what this really means is that they no longer trust that this mother fucking ape of a president knows what he doesn't know and to keep his fingers off the controls of the economy.

I said it before, and yes, I will say it again: this country is headed for an economic dip. The question is, how bad will it be, and the answer to that question will depend on the response. Presidents have no control over a recession - in most cases they can't be blamed for them. But they can be blamed for how they respond. The signs for this president and for this economy are ominous.
Yes Trump is making things worse, but I think the overall market would look about the same no matter who was president. Just about every market world wide is down about 30% from its high, same as the US. You can't have a everyone in the world stay home for a few weeks/months without massive damage to the economy.

The thing is that the only two "positive" things that Trump could point as why he should be elected were the economy and judges. So even if it isn't his fault its going to hurt his chances big time.

(off topic) As far as judges go, I think he may be heading into a no-win situation, as abortion actually hits the supreme court. If Roe v. Wade is upheld, then even the conservative judges accomplishment will be more or less of the table. On the other hand if they do strike it down, then it will galvanize the majority who support it against him.
  #222  
Old 03-16-2020, 01:25 PM
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To the lie which is American capitalism, note that we are a mere 4 weeks from all-time market highs and now we have zero rates, $700B in QE, $500B in repos, and a $1.5 trillion RBMS injection...

... and it's still not enough to save the system.
A lie indeed.

There's no question that markets would suffer regardless of what type of capitalism we employed, but the post-1980 capitalism espoused by Republicans have replaced pensions with 401-Ks and IRA and encouraged gambling, er, investing in the stock market. This has been coupled with policies that have led to the concentration of wealth and similarly encouraged short-term yields over longer-term value in equities. A side effect of US tax and regulatory policy is that these policies also have produced a serious conflict of interest by the CEOs who pump up stocks any which way they can, take the money, and run - and unless they're engaging in Bernie Madoff-sized Ponzi schemes, the only real accountability is a golden parachute. But there's nothing of value for the wage-earner, their households, and consumers, who can only really grow their spending power (now and in the future) by taking on debt.

And so take on debt we do, and we keep telling ourselves how great our economy is until debt-ridden households run into a cash flow problem - like right now. Send money to the local banks all you want; it's the debt-burdened household that will need the relief, and I seriously doubt they get it.
  #223  
Old 03-16-2020, 01:46 PM
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Where are you seeing this? C-Span is saying it's going to be the Vice President.
I had the morning news on in the background while I was feeding the kids. I just heard president but they could have said vice president.
  #224  
Old 03-16-2020, 03:39 PM
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President Trump missed a 3,000 point drop by thiiiis much, with the DJIA closing down 2,997 in a bloodbath in both points and percentage (-12.93%) to end the day @ 20,188 (truncated the pennies, sorry... I'm old that way. ).

Just to remind y'all, on Obama's last full day, the DJIA closed at 19,742, meaning that... for the market... 3 more years of Republican economics, led by a man who bankrupted 5 casinos, has gained a whopping 446 nominal points.

Adjusted to 2016 dollars? Obama's DJIA closed at 20,991.

20188
- 20991
--------
- 803

So... in terms of 2016 dollars, the market is down 800 points since Trump took office.

https://westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi
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Old 03-16-2020, 05:13 PM
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This time however he caused the market to go down by telling the truth (for once.) We'll still have a problem in the summer, nice of him to finally admit it. I don't know why this was a surprise to some traders.

Just wait until the unemployment numbers hit.
  #226  
Old 03-16-2020, 05:27 PM
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This time however he caused the market to go down by telling the truth (for once.) We'll still have a problem in the summer, nice of him to finally admit it. I don't know why this was a surprise to some traders.

Just wait until the unemployment numbers hit.
Unemployment and all the other economic numbers.
  #227  
Old 03-16-2020, 05:29 PM
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All along, I’ve had the feeling that this being an election year will greatly affect the reaction of the federal government. I wonder how much.
  #228  
Old 03-16-2020, 06:21 PM
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This time however he caused the market to go down by telling the truth (for once.) We'll still have a problem in the summer, nice of him to finally admit it. I don't know why this was a surprise to some traders.

They are probably thinking that if things are so bad that even DJT isn't claiming everything is perfect then we must be well and truly fucked.
  #229  
Old 03-16-2020, 08:33 PM
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Unemployment and all the other economic numbers.
It's not just the numbers; it's the speed with which it's all happening, and the timing couldn't be worse: an election year.

I hate Trump like a motherfucker, but any president would be feeling the heat in this environment. I don't blame Trump for the situation. Any president would be staring down the barrel of a recession in this case.

The difference between Trump and, well, George W Bush is that Bush realized that his ideology was no longer operable early enough to act, and since he was in his second term didn't give two shits what his tea party nutjob radicals felt about his 'flip flop'. I think Bush was largely a bad president, but he at least tried to be good, and this was because he cared about people other than himself.

Trump, on the other hand, is a total narcissist, and his entire party has drunk his kool aid. He will keep badgering the Fed. He will keep blaming Obama and Democratic governors and mayors for everything that he failed to do. He will live in his own reality until he gets thrown out of office. But understand that by the time that happens, it could be Herbert Hoover time.
  #230  
Old 03-16-2020, 10:22 PM
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It's not just the numbers; it's the speed with which it's all happening, and the timing couldn't be worse: an election year.

I hate Trump like a motherfucker, but any president would be feeling the heat in this environment. I don't blame Trump for the situation. Any president would be staring down the barrel of a recession in this case.
That's true, but most other presidents wouldn't have called the virus a hoax and have repeatedly said that there was no problem. Most other presidents were somewhat trustworthy. Most other presidents provided leadership.
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Old 03-17-2020, 05:22 AM
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Why aren't our vaunted Job Creators keeping things running via their amazing bootstraps?
  #232  
Old 03-17-2020, 07:05 AM
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Part of the decline in markets - a large part, I think - is an admission by Wall St that the "strong" economy was the result of tricks like stock buybacks, many of which were leveraged (i.e. with borrowed money). Once there was an inkling of a looming demand crisis, the markets got exposed for the scam that they were.

Now that people are beginning to price in the *real* economic value of these companies and using that as a starting point to figure out how dire things may get, they are now trying to figure out just how bad things are going to get,
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Old 03-17-2020, 07:18 AM
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To your point, Asahi:

Total US Market Cap as a % of US GDP

2-14-2020: 158%
3-11-2020: 134%
3-16-2020: 109%

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...190064643?s=20
  #234  
Old 03-17-2020, 06:15 PM
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20% unemployment projected by Mnuchin.

WaPo: 4.6 million travel jobs to be lost in 2020

Airlines: spent $45 billion in stock buybacks from 2010-2019, asking for $50 billion bailout.

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/sta...958057985?s=19

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/s...726855680?s=19

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...870124546?s=19

Last edited by JohnT; 03-17-2020 at 06:19 PM.
  #235  
Old 03-17-2020, 07:15 PM
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I have no idea who Saleha Mohsin is. Do I have any reason to trust her reporting or what Mnuchin said, or even if Mnuchin said it, if he has any idea what he's talking about? IOW, any other sources on either the Mnuchin claim or that any sane modelers see 20% unemployment as a viable forecast?
  #236  
Old 03-17-2020, 08:00 PM
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20% unemployment projected by Mnuchin.

WaPo: 4.6 million travel jobs to be lost in 2020

Airlines: spent $45 billion in stock buybacks from 2010-2019, asking for $50 billion bailout.

https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/sta...958057985?s=19

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/s...726855680?s=19

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/s...870124546?s=19
The shit of it is...the industry as a whole is too big to fail. And so it continues: we're forever trapped in this cycle of socializing corporate excesses and flushing those barely hanging on by a thread.

I get why Bernie voters want a revolution. We've gotten so used to being screwed by the plutocrats that it seems a revolution is the rational reaction to capitalism gone wild. In reality, we just need to fix the tax code, impose regulations, and insist that white collar criminals...go to fucking jail once in a while.
  #237  
Old 03-17-2020, 08:18 PM
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I have no idea who Saleha Mohsin is. Do I have any reason to trust her reporting or what Mnuchin said, or even if Mnuchin said it, if he has any idea what he's talking about? IOW, any other sources on either the Mnuchin claim or that any sane modelers see 20% unemployment as a viable forecast?
Seriously? You can't click the profile to see she's Bloomberg's reporter covering the Treasury Department? Is Google broken where you live? Phone notifications turned off?

Is CNN authoritative enough?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/polit...rus/index.html

Last edited by JohnT; 03-17-2020 at 08:19 PM.
  #238  
Old 03-17-2020, 11:13 PM
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Is CNN authoritative enough?
Yep. Was that that hard?

ETA: that story has a lot more context too. Way better than a random tweet. This still seems like unverified administration spin (that unemployment might hit 20%, not that Mnuchin said it), though.

Last edited by Do Not Taunt; 03-17-2020 at 11:15 PM.
  #239  
Old 03-18-2020, 08:14 AM
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Well now this is really encouraging - reassures us all that Trump is on top of things and going to hire the best people to handle the response to COVID and the coming economic nosedive.

When there's a coming economic crisis, who better to recruit the right personnel in the public sector than someone who was fired for unethical conduct and not even 30 years old. Better yet, hire someone who hires his buddies over qualified personnel.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...resigns-134541

People are going to die because of shit like this.

Quote:
Dale Cabaniss, the director of the government’s Office of Personnel Management, resigned abruptly on Tuesday, effective immediately.

Cabaniss stepped down because of, what two people familiar with the matter said, was poor treatment from the 29-year-old head of the Presidential Personnel Office, John McEntee, and a powerful appointee at OPM, Paul Dans, the new White House liaison and senior adviser to the director of OPM.
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Old 03-18-2020, 08:48 AM
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I get why Bernie voters want a revolution. We've gotten so used to being screwed by the plutocrats that it seems a revolution is the rational reaction to capitalism gone wild. In reality, we just need to fix the tax code, impose regulations, and insist that white collar criminals...go to fucking jail once in a while.
I've been saying this for years: there is a reason socialism is popular again. It's not random, it's because the rich people are hijacking the world. They always do, but it's worse some times than other times.

The airlines SHOULD be allowed to fail. A few big ones will go belly up. Tough shit. Soon enough they'll be bought out by other airlines or investors who will fire up the same airplanes on the same routes and life will go on.
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Old 03-18-2020, 10:15 AM
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The airlines SHOULD be allowed to fail. A few big ones will go belly up. Tough shit. Soon enough they'll be bought out by other airlines or investors who will fire up the same airplanes on the same routes and life will go on.
Airlines should be bailed-out under pain of re-regulation. Let's undo some of that misguided Reagan administration bullshit.

Let's go a step further; some of the larger failing carriers should be combined into one nationalized international flagship airline. There are good reasons that many countries do that.
  #242  
Old 03-18-2020, 12:42 PM
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President Trump missed a 3,000 point drop by thiiiis much, with the DJIA closing down 2,997 in a bloodbath in both points and percentage (-12.93%) to end the day @ 20,188 (truncated the pennies, sorry... I'm old that way. ).

Just to remind y'all, on Obama's last full day, the DJIA closed at 19,742, meaning that... for the market... 3 more years of Republican economics, led by a man who bankrupted 5 casinos, has gained a whopping 446 nominal points.

Adjusted to 2016 dollars? Obama's DJIA closed at 20,991.

20188
- 20991
--------
- 803

So... in terms of 2016 dollars, the market is down 800 points since Trump took office.

https://westegg.com/inflation/infl.cgi
Currently, the DJIA is over 500 points below what it was on Obama's last day @ 19,234 as of this moment. This means, adjusted for inflation, the DJIA is 1,757 lower than peak Obama.

Soon the argument will morph to "Well, it's still higher than 11-8-2016, when people thought that HRC will be President." Which was 18,332, so nominally, this remains true.

But adjusted? It's still lower as 18,332 is now worth 19,647.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc...1&year2=202002

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ED...y&frequency=1d

Last edited by JohnT; 03-18-2020 at 12:45 PM.
  #243  
Old 03-18-2020, 01:21 PM
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Just dropped below 19,000 for a few seconds.

Back down to 18,963.

[Bob Seegar] Like a rock[/Bob Seegar]

Last edited by running coach; 03-18-2020 at 01:22 PM.
  #244  
Old 03-18-2020, 01:24 PM
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I've been saying this for years: there is a reason socialism is popular again. It's not random, it's because the rich people are hijacking the world. They always do, but it's worse some times than other times.

The airlines SHOULD be allowed to fail. A few big ones will go belly up. Tough shit. Soon enough they'll be bought out by other airlines or investors who will fire up the same airplanes on the same routes and life will go on.
I think at least one of them should. Having more than that, like it or not, is going to fuck the economy and have untold ripple effects. If I were God, I'd let Boeing go bankrupt and find a way to magically put the economy back together again. In reality, it's not so easy. The unfortunate part is that as long as Republicans are in charge there will be no sense of moderation or balance. It's really up to individual people to stay informed, educate themselves, and understand how their economy and democracy works instead of just settling for being spoon fed propaganda from right wing propaganda factories.
  #245  
Old 03-20-2020, 02:50 AM
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US stock market falling faster than during the Wall Street Crash
  #246  
Old 03-20-2020, 06:56 AM
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The short term stimulus will shore up markets, but all we're doing is exacerbating wealth inequality. Short-term stimulus sounds great - let's put a few dollars in someone's stocking. But once the stimulus is gone we'll be stuck in the same cycle of cutting taxes for billionaires and using the stock market to pump up our incomes. Wage growth will stagnate and more people will simply disappear from the radar.
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Old 03-20-2020, 09:02 AM
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Good article:

Coronavirus credit crunch could make 2008 look like 'child's play'

Quote:
With the world’s most advanced economies all entering a shutdown that could last months, companies that have gorged on cheap money for the past decade face going out of business thanks to a huge spike in borrowing costs on international money markets.

The sudden loss of revenue faced by airlines, tourism-related businesses and carmakers make them extremely vulnerable, ratings agencies have said, with parts of the energy sector also at risk as the fall in the oil price to an 18-year low pulls the rug from under its feet.

...

The problem was particularly acute in the corporate borrowing market, he said, where many companies will struggle to refinance debt due to a repeat of the sudden change in credit conditions that sparked the 2007 credit crunch, banking collapses and then the GFC. The prospect of no revenue for months meant creditworthiness had plummeted in exposed sectors and cut off access to funding.

“It was OK for companies to build up debt and keep rolling it over when borrowing costs were low,” Coote told the Guardian. “But now the market is not trading at all and companies trying to roll over bonds face higher costs and the result will be bankruptcy events.

“$2tn worth of corporate debt is due to be rolled over this year but the market has completely frozen. The market is essentially closed. It’s a disaster.”
  #248  
Old 03-20-2020, 09:06 AM
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An opinion, offered for nothing, probably worth nothing:

We can let the airline industry fail. We, unfortunately, cannot let the aviation industry fail. Starting a new, functional airline is child's play compared to starting a new Boeing.
  #249  
Old 03-20-2020, 09:07 AM
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n/m

Last edited by JohnT; 03-20-2020 at 09:07 AM.
  #250  
Old 03-20-2020, 07:36 PM
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Back in post 130, I said the end of the Trump Bump was plausible. Guess I was right - but it happened faster than I ever thought.
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