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Old 02-25-2020, 03:00 PM
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AOC may be out of a job


New York Dems Are Redrawing Congressional Districts And It Could Put Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Out Of A Job

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New York is likely to lose a seat in Congress after the 2020 census and Democrats in the state legislature will have to redraw the stateís Congressional districts as a result. Although there are plenty of places to cut, New York Dems are reportedly eyeing Ocasio-Cortezís Bronx district for elimination because sheís been out of sync with state-level Democrats who control the process.
Quite a few if's and a lot of conjecture at this point, but she may have rocked the boat a bit too much to be able to recover.

Not a lot of big media coverage except for the New York Post, but their blurb was a bit light on content.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:08 PM
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New York Dems Are Redrawing Congressional Districts And It Could Put Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Out Of A Job

Quite a few if's and a lot of conjecture at this point, but she may have rocked the boat a bit too much to be able to recover.

Not a lot of big media coverage except for the New York Post, but their blurb was a bit light on content.
So what you're saying is, "hello Senator Ocasio-Cortez"?!

You know, I was wondering why I haven't heard about her much in the news lately. Maybe she's aware of this and has been lying low. I don't really believe that, but who knows? In any case, there is a lot of conjecture, so while I'm on it, how about her just running in another district or the one that hers is incorporated into? I wouldn't just count her all out, is all I'm saying.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:11 PM
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So what you're saying is, "hello Senator Ocasio-Cortez"?!
I don't think she'd have a prayer in a statewide election - Upstate is a totally different thing entirely.

Though I will also say when the conjecture is by Frank Luntz (in the Daily Wire article) and the NY Post, I'm not inclined to take it too seriously.

As for AOC laying low... she's been on the campaign trail for Bernie Sanders quite openly and out there.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:17 PM
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I don't think she'd have a prayer in a statewide election - Upstate is a totally different thing entirely.

Though I will also say when the conjecture is by Frank Luntz (in the Daily Wire article) and the NY Post, I'm not inclined to take it too seriously.

As for AOC laying low... she's been on the campaign trail for Bernie Sanders quite openly and out there.
Well, a liberal Schumer has been senator for decades, and of course Clinton was one. But I've never looked at a breakdown of where he gets his votes, and really have no idea if AOC could get enough from the NYC area to win. But she surprised the hell out of a lot of Democrats a few years ago, and I'm just saying the idea, while I was generally joking there, is not out of the realm of possibility.

Last edited by Fiddle Peghead; 02-25-2020 at 03:20 PM.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:23 PM
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She could certainly get enough from the NYC area to win, given that the NYC area is 64% of the state. Acres don't vote; people do, and the city is where the people are.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:23 PM
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Well, a liberal Schumer has been senator for decades. But I've never looked at a breakdown of where he gets his votes, and really have no idea if AOC could get enough from the NYC area to win. But she surprised the hell out of a lot of Democrats a few years ago, and I'm just saying the idea, while I was generally joking there, is not out of the realm of possibility.
Schumer would destroy her, IMO. Don't forget he's from NYC as well and would get a lot of votes from Manhattan and parts of Brooklyn (where Schumer is from). And then he'd be favored in other parts of the state.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:30 PM
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Thanks, both. Again, mainly joking but yes, Schumer would be a problem, but he has to retire sometime. I suppose...
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:32 PM
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AOC would have a better shot against Gillibrand tbh. Schumer is more popular... and can raise more money.. than Gillibrand.

Last edited by ISiddiqui; 02-25-2020 at 03:34 PM.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:43 PM
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AOCs district is half Bronx and half queens. The Bronx half is her constituency. If they really want her out, they can effectively make her reintroduce herself to a whole new constituency but this time none will take her fr granted
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:51 PM
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So what you're saying is, "hello Senator Ocasio-Cortez"?!
Gillibrand's seat doesn't come up for reelection till 2024 with AOC presumably not wanting to take a two year break. Schumer's seat is open in 2022. If she thinks the party is out to get her now.... The Tea Party had some big GOP primary wins. IMO the smart money would still be on Schumer if she tried challenging him for his seat.

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In any case, there is a lot of conjecture, so while I'm on it, how about her just running in another district or the one that hers is incorporated into? I wouldn't just count her all out, is all I'm saying.
That is pretty normal. Try to run in a new district that covers part of the old. Since they are losing a seat she might run smack into another Dem incumbent in any of the obvious choices. She also won her current district by a couple more points than the state went for Clinton. It is the kind of district that you draw when you are trying to gerrymander a state for Republican advantage.* Some of that is likely just Democratic voters self gerrymandering by choosing to live together. Still the options might be there for the party to create districts that include hers but are less blue dominated. That might mean she gets stuck with options that make force her to really court the center left vote to avoid defeat in a truly contested general election.

* To be fair, if you just look at the margins in the entire list of House seats it makes the state look like it was districted by Republicans living up to the most hyperbolic statements about gerrymandering. There are not a lot of oddly shaped districts though. It may be that there are some underlying state requirements in the process that limit options to the party.

Last edited by DinoR; 02-25-2020 at 03:52 PM.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:53 PM
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AOC would have a better shot against Gillibrand tbh. Schumer is more popular... and can raise more money.. than Gillibrand.
From what Iíve heard, Gillibrand has made herself persona non grata after the stunt she pulled with Al Franken. AOC would be much smarter to go after her seat instead.
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:56 PM
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Good riddance. She's a nutter and we're better off without her.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:06 PM
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How would this work exactly? Imagine there is a state with 2 districts only. To combine in one, you simply remove the dividing line. How then do you decide which Rep goes and which stays? Seniority? Anyway, meaning no disrespect to anyone here, it just hit me fully, as ISiddiqui said: Frank Luntz is behind this. Think I'll just bow out of this discussion.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:11 PM
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How would this work exactly? Imagine there is a state with 2 districts only. To combine in one, you simply remove the dividing line. How then do you decide which Rep goes and which stays? Seniority?
You have a primary.

Last edited by CarnalK; 02-25-2020 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:13 PM
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She may lose her seat even if it isn't redistricted. She's apparently not very popular at home, if you believe the Washington Examiner:

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She’s a star on the national political stage, but Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is viewed skeptically back in her Queens and Bronx 14th Congressional District, according to a new door-to-door survey.

It found that she has a low 21% favorability rating, that just 11% believe she has their best interests in mind, and that only 13% would vote to reelect her.
One caveat: the poll appears to have been sponsored by an anti-AOC group. But it still doesn't bode well for her.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:15 PM
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How would this work exactly? Imagine there is a state with 2 districts only. To combine in one, you simply remove the dividing line. How then do you decide which Rep goes and which stays? Seniority? Anyway, meaning no disrespect to anyone here, it just hit me fully, as ISiddiqui said: Frank Luntz is behind this. Think I'll just bow out of this discussion.
Every state has their own process, but this is another point in favor of independent redistricting.

Looking at the actual map:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...13_to_2022.png

AOC is in 14. So while all the lines will move, it's really as simple as splitting it up among all the surrounding districts.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:18 PM
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You have a primary.
Thanks. The article discussed this as getting rid of AOC's district, but didn't bring up the other district that would also be gotten rid of. So why couldn't it be the other person's district? That's why I asked, thinking that maybe New York's Democratic Party might have rules for when such a situation arises. If someone has to go, then perhaps it was seniority.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:19 PM
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She may lose her seat even if it isn't redistricted. She's apparently not very popular at home, if you believe the Washington Examiner:



One caveat: the poll appears to have been sponsored by an anti-AOC group. But it still doesn't bode well for her.
Questions 4:
Quote:
Do you believe politicians, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, had our community's best interest in mind when they forced Amazon out of Queens?
Yeah, I definitely wouldn't put any stock in that poll.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:23 PM
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One caveat: the poll appears to have been sponsored by an anti-AOC group. But it still doesn't bode well for her.
But if you know from the beginning that the pollsters are biased, why grant them any credibility for deciding what bodes well for AOC. Doesn't it make more sense to just ignore it?
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:23 PM
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How would this work exactly? Imagine there is a state with 2 districts only. To combine in one, you simply remove the dividing line. How then do you decide which Rep goes and which stays? Seniority?
You have an election. Nobody is guaranteed a congressional district. Ocasio-Cortez will have to run for a seat in 2020, 2022, and 2024 if she wants to stay in Congress regardless of anything else. All redistricting means is the border of the district she runs in will be different.

Last edited by Little Nemo; 02-25-2020 at 04:24 PM.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:25 PM
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How would this work exactly? Imagine there is a state with 2 districts only. To combine in one, you simply remove the dividing line. How then do you decide which Rep goes and which stays?
As pointed out you would have a primary between the two Representatives. What tends to happen is that the dominant party would try to draw the lines to eliminate a position from the other party anyways.

If there was a primary AOC would have a very good shot at winning it, so I don't think she'd immediately think of jumping to a Senate run.
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:57 PM
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AOCs district is half Bronx and half queens. The Bronx half is her constituency. If they really want her out, they can effectively make her reintroduce herself to a whole new constituency but this time none will take her fr granted
That simply isn't true.

AOC did better in Queens than she did in the Bronx. This wasn't a 'conventional wisdom' primary result.
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Old 02-26-2020, 07:48 AM
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She may lose her seat even if it isn't redistricted. She's apparently not very popular at home, if you believe the Washington Examiner:



One caveat: the poll appears to have been sponsored by an anti-AOC group. But it still doesn't bode well for her.
And the poll was conducted by a group called "Mobilize the Message" which is a funny name for a pollster. Googling them doesn't turn up much.

I wouldn't just take this poll with a bag of salt; I'd just chuck it into the garbage. But I guess the readers of the Washington Examiner are suckers for crap like this that confirms their prejudices. The question is why a Doper would bother to cite an article in an extremely biased publication, about a poll sponsored by a blatantly biased organization, conducted by a 'pollster' with a name that sounds more like the name of an activist group, that barely seems to have existed outside of conducting this poll. (Yeah, I know the last wasn't immediately obvious, but the first three should have sufficed.)
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Old 02-26-2020, 07:55 AM
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If the Democratic Party is stupid enough to even consider redistricting one of the party's rising stars out of her seat, it goes a long way to explain why the party is so fucking ineffective.
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Old 02-26-2020, 07:59 AM
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The guy who conducted that poll is Justin Greiss, who is basically a Rand Paul acolyte and general crackpot. Link. Why anyone would think of him as running a poll that should be cared about is silly. And I'm not an AOC fan myself.
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Old 02-26-2020, 08:01 AM
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Push polls aren't actually polls. Garbage in = garbage out.
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Old 02-27-2020, 08:46 AM
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As pointed out you would have a primary between the two Representatives. What tends to happen is that the dominant party would try to draw the lines to eliminate a position from the other party anyways.

If there was a primary AOC would have a very good shot at winning it, so I don't think she'd immediately think of jumping to a Senate run.
It's all Democratic. It's Democrats trying to figure out which one of them has to leave the delegation.
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Old 02-27-2020, 08:53 AM
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That simply isn't true.

AOC did better in Queens than she did in the Bronx. This wasn't a 'conventional wisdom' primary result.
Wow.

Color me shocked.

Queens is Crowley's home turf and AOC seemed to be running a Bronx campaign.

I thought it was weird that so many low income residents in her district were upset about Amazon headquarters jobs. If they're really young millennials then I can see where that sentiment came from.

Anyways, I don't live there any more but most of the folks I know there are kind of confused by how AOC is their representative.
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Old 02-27-2020, 08:54 AM
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Currently 5 of New York's 27 congressmen are Republican.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/mem...epresentatives
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Old 02-27-2020, 08:55 AM
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Push polls aren't actually polls. Garbage in = garbage out.
Yeah, this seems like a push poll to me too. Just reminding people that AOC cost them tens of thousands of jobs that they probably didn't want anyways but at least she is proposing practical solutions to their problems like the Green New Deal.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:01 AM
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Currently 5 of New York's 27 congressmen are Republican.
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/mem...epresentatives
NY is poised to lose 2 congressional seats. It's tough to see how they will squeeze out 2 more Republicans in upstate New York, Long Island and Staten island in a state that only went 60% Democrat in the last presidential election. How much more gerrymandered can you get?

I think they are looking at losing at least one Democrat, probably two.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:11 AM
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The 27th is currently vacant and it seems to usually go Republican too.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:33 PM
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How exactly do you chop up Buffalo so it goes Democrat?
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:39 PM
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How exactly do you chop up Buffalo so it goes Democrat?
Dude, they have software for gerrymandering now. Quit acting like you can eyeball it.
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Old 02-27-2020, 03:49 PM
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Well, I have no big feelings about her one way or another, but I won't lament the demise of the district per se, since it looks the most un-natural of all of New York's relatively reasonable districts --which are the height of sanity compared to a lot of states. In other states, her district would be one of the more reasonably-drawn ones. (Which isn't to say there aren't weird-looking situations if you look at culture and influence zones rather than just looking to make sure there are compact, straight lines, for instance, Ithaca doesn't seem particularly close to Jamestown, and there's no particular reason the Finger Lakes region should be split between the Southern Tier, Syracuse, and the Buffalo Suburbs while being completely cut off from Rochester, but at least they don't zigzag across the East River.)
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:11 PM
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The 10th Congressional District looks pretty funny looking too.
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Old 02-27-2020, 04:21 PM
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If the Democratic Party is stupid enough to even consider redistricting one of the party's rising stars out of her seat, it goes a long way to explain why the party is so fucking ineffective.
When one of their rising stars doesnít believe in the party and starts a PAC to fight against incumbent democrats as well as republicans it becomes more believable.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...483218%3famp=1
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:24 PM
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From the map, the 7th, 14th and very specially the 10th districts could take some rationalization in a future redistribution. But with seats getting lost I only foresee more creative land surveying to protect valued members.

If the Justice Democrats efforts cost some seats of other well established members with valuable seniority (which is what bringeth home the bacon), I suspect the New York state legislature from both sides of the aisle will not go out of their way to diagram Miss OC a friendly safe territory.

Last edited by JRDelirious; 02-27-2020 at 05:27 PM.
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Old 02-27-2020, 05:32 PM
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When one of their rising stars doesnít believe in the party and starts a PAC to fight against incumbent democrats as well as republicans it becomes more believable.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...483218%3famp=1
So far she's only targeted shitty Democrats in safely blue districts. Why is that a bad thing?

If the party sets itself against young, talented, and energetic progressives, it has no future. We should be ecstatic that someone as amazingly talented at such a young age is a Democrat. In 15 years she could be the next Obama.
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Old 02-27-2020, 06:05 PM
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So far she's only targeted shitty Democrats in safely blue districts. Why is that a bad thing?

If the party sets itself against young, talented, and energetic progressives, it has no future. We should be ecstatic that someone as amazingly talented at such a young age is a Democrat. In 15 years she could be the next Obama.
She is so far left of Obama that they might as well be in a different party. Which is her point. I donít see a problem with most of the party not wanting to be made into a far left party. If you are on the far left good for you but donít expect everyone to follow along just because someone is popular or energetic. The future doesnít have to be on the far left.
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Old 02-27-2020, 06:09 PM
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She is so far left of Obama that they might as well be in a different party. Which is her point. I don’t see a problem with most of the party not wanting to be made into a far left party. If you are on the far left good for you but don’t expect everyone to follow along just because someone is popular or energetic. The future doesn’t have to be on the far left.
From reading Obama's books, he was pretty close to that far left at her age. Give her some time to learn about politics and about the party. No need to pile on her so soon -- she's just a House rep. And a particularly talented and energetic one.

So far she hasn't done a single thing to harm the party.

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Old 02-27-2020, 07:25 PM
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From reading Obama's books, he was pretty close to that far left at her age. Give her some time to learn about politics and about the party. No need to pile on her so soon -- she's just a House rep. And a particularly talented and energetic one.

So far she hasn't done a single thing to harm the party.
If she's not harming the party, why are the Democratic PTB talking about getting her out?
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Old 02-27-2020, 07:27 PM
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If she's not harming the party, why are the Democratic PTB talking about getting her out?
I see no reason to believe they are. The OP's link sounds like rumor and innuendo at best.
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Old 02-27-2020, 07:29 PM
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I see no reason to believe they are. The OP's link sounds like rumor and innuendo at best.
You're right, that's possible.
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Old 02-27-2020, 07:56 PM
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Dems are better the further left they get. The alternative is to be more right. What ideas are there going to be from the right? Rightward is careening towards full oligarchy now and the guardrails are being stripped for scrap.
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Old 02-27-2020, 08:23 PM
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AOC is a rock star. She’s going to lead the future of the party. She isn’t going anywhere.

Some of the best evidence of this is all of the effort her opponents take to make it seem like she is unpopular at home or a pariah within the party*. It is to laugh.

*Do I think the powers that be sometimes want to rein her in? Yeah, because it’s not always good politics to be confrontational or say what you mean. But do they want her out? Not a chance.
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:17 PM
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So far she's only targeted shitty Democrats in safely blue districts. Why is that a bad thing?
How was Joe Crowley a shitty Democrat?
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:18 PM
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Dems are better the further left they get. The alternative is to be more right. What ideas are there going to be from the right? Rightward is careening towards full oligarchy now and the guardrails are being stripped for scrap.
And you want the jump the guardrails on the other side?
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Old 02-27-2020, 09:25 PM
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Dems are better the further left they get. The alternative is to be more right. What ideas are there going to be from the right? Rightward is careening towards full oligarchy now and the guardrails are being stripped for scrap.
Far left and far right are not the only choices.
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Old 02-27-2020, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Loach View Post
Far left and far right are not the only choices.
Can you give an example of a rightward advance for society good for the US today? Aren't we suffering a lot from the right wing decisions at every level of the last 50 years and to extreme degrees of volatility and danger. How can you get more rightward and not destroy the country?

It has to be given that we need to live together plurastically, save the climate, and bring power to the people, the voters and citizens, and away from concentrations, combines and corporations. How do the republicans address this at all?

Last edited by drad dog; 02-27-2020 at 10:14 PM.
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