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  #51  
Old 03-02-2020, 07:47 AM
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(forgot the link above) https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/super-tuesday/

Going by 538, the "bellwether" states for tomorrow are TX and VA. Watch those states closely -- if either candidate has a clear win for both of those, they're probably on their way to a big win for the day. If they split, or those two states are very close, then this could continue on for quite a while.

Giving Bernie TX and VA and leaving the rest as toss ups gives him a ~47% at a majority, with Biden at ~2%. Doing the same for Biden gives him a ~27% chance at the majority, with Bernie down to about 7%.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 03-02-2020 at 07:49 AM.
  #52  
Old 03-02-2020, 07:51 AM
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That is definitely a race!

I just don’t think 538 has enough time and polling information to incorporate the effect of Biden’s landslide victory in South Carolina, Pete Buttigieg’s withdrawing from the race, and the signaling to people who were interested in Bloomberg that Biden is now the only real alternative to Bernie. So I think Biden will do better than these kinds of projections expect. We will soon find out.
  #53  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:50 AM
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Google?

You could at least register a protest vote for Not Trump, by voting for one of the others. I don't suppose that'll help much; but it's something.

(this comment presuming that you are indeed registered Republican.)
I did Google them but the point is all of the other candidates together may add up to 1% of the vote.
  #54  
Old 03-02-2020, 11:46 AM
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Dude the only reason you are stanning for Pete so hard is because he is a white gay guy in his 30s just like you. That's it. If a black straight woman, or whatever other identity permutation, with the same exact resume and experience as Buttigieg was running instead, you would be dismissing them and mocking their supporters just like you constantly do with the other 2 dozen candidates running.

Congratulations for buying so hard into identity politics I guess. I see it every time I go to a gay bar... White 30-something guys in Pete 2020 shirts everywhere. Sorry to break it to you, but there aren't enough white gay men in this country to hand Buttigieg the nomination, especially when his support among black voters is effectively zero.
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What's funny is that a year ago he DID offer new ideas and promised structural change. When he started his campaign, his focus was on electoral reform, modernizing the judiciary and increasing participation in civil service.

But in the past few months he has pivoted to become the favorite pet of millionaire donors and transformed himself into someone's idea of a mini-Biden. The metamorphosis is so complete that even political junkies who have been following the soft primary since last year have completely forgotten about Pete 1.0.

I liked the old Buttigieg a lot more than this weird, almost creepy focus-grouped creation that's running now.
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This was my first time voting on Super Tuesday or in a presidential primary that actually matters, as I moved from Illinois to Colorado last month.
It looks like Sanders is a lock to win CO, with all the rest of the candidates battling it out just to get to the 15% threshold for delegates. I voted for Pete. He is ultimately the best one left standing, but I would've preferred Yang, Inslee or Hickenlooper.
Although I predict Warren will come in 2nd here, and Biden in 3rd.
I think I have settled my opinion of you.
  #55  
Old 03-02-2020, 12:30 PM
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I think I have settled my opinion of you.
And what's that? That out of a half dozen pretty bad candidates, I voted for the the least bad one, as I usually do.
Sanders was a lock to win CO, so I figured I might as well vote for a gay guy for the first time in my life to show solidarity even though he had no chance.
Meaningless gesture but so are these pointless years-long primaries.
  #56  
Old 03-02-2020, 12:31 PM
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And what's that?.
I think everyone will get it if I leave it untyped.
  #57  
Old 03-02-2020, 02:54 PM
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New 538 projection after Amy and Pete drop out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

No Majority 65%
Bernie 20%
Biden 15%

From what I can gather, the only uncertainty is the spoiler effect Bloomberg will have.
  #58  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:56 PM
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New 538 projection after Amy and Pete drop out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...mary-forecast/

No Majority 65%
Bernie 20%
Biden 15%

It has changed even since then: 17 to 16! Wow. Also interesting is the odds for a plurality: 52-46 Bernie.
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  #59  
Old 03-02-2020, 08:48 PM
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It has changed even since then: 17 to 16! Wow. Also interesting is the odds for a plurality: 52-46 Bernie.
Changed again!

No Majority 66%
Biden 17%
Sanders 17%

Plurality 51-48 Bernie
  #60  
Old 03-02-2020, 09:01 PM
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To follow up, I think Silver admits that he is drifting into uncharted waters here. It is really unknown what Biden's win in SC and the Amy/Pete endorsements have done. It is also a clear unknown how Bloomberg will do seeing as how he hasn't even participated in a contest until tomorrow.

So I think Silver's prediction can be summarized as follows:

1) There is a 2/3 chance that Bloomberg, and to a lesser extent Warren, reaches the 15% threshold in enough contests to deny anyone a majority.

2) If the 1/3 chance happens and Bloomy and Warren fade, then based upon the latest developments, it is a coin flip over who between Biden and Bernie come out ahead. Look at the projected delegate count. Almost even.

3) Historically when someone starts on a roll, everyone else gets behind that candidate. Bernie and Biden are so far apart that each will fight until the end.

As someone who is not a Dem voter, but a political junkie, I am enjoying this so far. I know that most on this board do not want a brokered convention and want a clear candidate to beat Trump, I will have a fucking house party to watch a brokered convention. Not because I think that will help Trump, but for the historic nature of it.
  #61  
Old 03-02-2020, 09:03 PM
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I will have a fucking house party to watch a brokered convention. Not because I think that will help Trump, but for the historic nature of it.
Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms.
  #62  
Old 03-02-2020, 09:19 PM
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Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms.
I want anti-smoking laws and ordinances suspended for the DNC this summer.
  #63  
Old 03-02-2020, 10:08 PM
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I want anti-smoking laws and ordinances suspended for the DNC this summer.
And let's make it a drunken brawl, as well!

"Wisconsin Republicans hopeful about bill to set later bar time during Democratic convention"
  #64  
Old 03-03-2020, 11:49 AM
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Same here. I want multiple ballots that span several weeks, and cigar-smoke-filled rooms.
Right..."Cigar" smoke filled rooms
  #65  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:16 PM
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I can’t wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count.

We already know now that California will take forever to count. I’m sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California.
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  #66  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:28 PM
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Seems to me that every election we hear talk of a brokered convention. I doubt it will happen. Personally, I think talk Bernie's lock on the nomination was entirely premature, I think Biden will have a majority of delegates by June.
  #67  
Old 03-03-2020, 02:40 PM
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I cant wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count.

We already know now that California will take forever to count. Im sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California.
I'm in a red California county and districts. Too bad the DNC can't fix things here.

That lengthy vote count occurs county by county, all 58 of-em. The smaller, poorer red counties might be slower than the bigger, richer blue counties in tallying mail-in ballots. If red-county vote-counters with Tramp leanings pull any tricks, Bernie will likely benefit.

I'm not sure elections are the best way to pick leaders. Paintball shoot-outs between candidates might work better.
  #68  
Old 03-03-2020, 03:51 PM
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Right..."Cigar" smoke filled rooms
Yup, no measly cigarettes. Not when the stakes are this high.
  #69  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:13 PM
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Seems to me that every election we hear talk of a brokered convention. I doubt it will happen. Personally, I think talk Bernie's lock on the nomination was entirely premature, I think Biden will have a majority of delegates by June.

Its sure starting to look that way. There are signs that Bloomberg just wants to see how many votes he can get today after spending all that money and then he is going to drop out and support Biden.
  #70  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:25 PM
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Yup, no measly cigarettes. Not when the stakes are this high.
Right..."tobacco" smoke filled rooms.
  #71  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:33 PM
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Right..."tobacco" smoke filled rooms.
After 4/20, there might be an adjustment.
  #72  
Old 03-03-2020, 04:59 PM
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This page on Vox has the poll closing times, in US Eastern time, for those who might find it useful. The first 3 close in about an hour - Alabama, Vermont, and Virginia.
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Last edited by galen ubal; 03-03-2020 at 05:00 PM.
  #73  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:22 PM
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Virginia is a key early-poll-close state. If it's "too close to call", then Bernie might be on his way to a good night. If he wins the state, he could be on his way to a great night. If Biden blows him out of the water like SC, then Biden could be on his way to a good-to-great night.
  #74  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:24 PM
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Snap shot of PredictIt derived win probabilities as of about right now. Ranked from most Bideny to the Berniest.

Code:
State		Biden 	Sanders
Alabama		98.0%	2.0%
Virginia	95.0%	5.0%
North Carolina	93.9%	6.1%
Arkansas	93.5%	6.5%
Tennessee	88.8%	11.2%
Oklahoma	80.2%	19.8%
Texas		54.3%	45.7%
Minnesota	21.2%	78.8%
Massachusetts	19.3%	80.7%
Maine		12.1%	87.9%
Utah		10.4%	89.6%
Colorado	8.2%	91.8%
California	8.0%	92.0%
Vermont		1.0%	99.0%
Looks like the Texas market might be the most interesting.

Massachusetts is a little weird here because Warren is ahead of Biden there.

My final Super Tuesday Tracker has more detailed time series info.
  #75  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:37 PM
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I cant wait to hear the conspiracies if Biden does well and California takes forever to count.

We already know now that California will take forever to count. Im sure if Biden does well, the Bernie people will be making accusations that the DNC is fixing things in California.
I've already seen complaints from Bernie supporters on social media complaining that Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawing before Super Tuesday was some sort of dirty trick by the DNC to hurt Bernie.
  #76  
Old 03-03-2020, 05:39 PM
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voted today in NC and the crowd seemed larger than normal for a primary but I don't recall the crowd size in 2016
  #77  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:01 PM
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Biden projected winner in VA. No data to call VT. At closing time..big night for Uncle Joe?
  #78  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:11 PM
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Biden wins Virginia and according to Nate Silver: "Bloomberg is considerably underperforming in the exit polls; it looks like hes at around 11 percent vs. our projection of 17 percent."

Good news for Biden.
  #79  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:16 PM
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At least I can take comfort that Bloomberg is doing poorly. Hopefully Bernie will get Texas and do well outside of the south.
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  #80  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:24 PM
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At least I can take comfort that Bloomberg is doing poorly. Hopefully Bernie will get Texas and do well outside of the south.
Hopefully Biden will do well in TX and embarrass Bernie. Id love to drink some Bernie tears
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  #81  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:28 PM
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I'm hoping both Biden and Bernie emerge knotted 50-50 out of this Tuesday and the Bernie Bros lose their minds.
  #82  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:29 PM
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I've already seen complaints from Bernie supporters on social media complaining that Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawing before Super Tuesday was some sort of dirty trick by the DNC to hurt Bernie.
Not really a dirty trick, but if betting were allowed, I'd bet that if Biden wins the nomination and then again in November, that Buttigieg and Klobuchar wind up with cabinet seats or something equivalent.

I could even see one of them as the VP nominee.

Just politics as usual.
  #83  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:29 PM
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Hopefully Biden will do well in TX and embarrass Bernie. Id love to drink some Bernie tears
Nah, if you save them and sell them to a fu fu liberal coffee or homebrew place, they will be worth millions!

Unless Bernie ends up getting elected and you'll be taxed on them.

Anyhoo, not much analysis on the key point of this night: the Bloomy or Warren 15% mark.
  #84  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:30 PM
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At least I can take comfort that Bloomberg is doing poorly. Hopefully Bernie will get Texas and do well outside of the south.
I think I'm more interested in Bloomberg doing poorly than I am about who wins between Biden and Sanders.

The idea of a moderate republican billionaire doing well in an election solely due to having the money to send out one sided ads is a pretty bad sign for democracy.
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:31 PM
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Biden projected to win NC...as the polls close...

Biden performing beyond his polling numbers.
  #86  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:33 PM
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Hopefully Biden will do well in TX and embarrass Bernie. I’d love to drink some Bernie tears
Sad that some folks like you are so vindictive towards millions of your fellow Democrats. I'm a decent guy who just so happens to disagree with you on the best candidate for the party, it's a shame that you enjoy this kind of childish cruelty.
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Old 03-03-2020, 06:34 PM
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Landslides in both VA and NC, looking good!
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  #88  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:36 PM
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Sad that some folks like you are so vindictive towards millions of your fellow Democrats. I'm a decent guy who just so happens to disagree with you on the best candidate for the party, it's a shame that you enjoy this kind of childish cruelty.
Ah, too bad. I know how kind Bernie bros have been. Youd better believe Im going to gloat.

Yes, Bernie will win CA and rack up delegates there. Stopping Bernie elsewhere is great.
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  #89  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:37 PM
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Hopefully Biden will do well in TX and embarrass Bernie. Id love to drink some Bernie tears
Use them to wash down that snake tail you'll be eating in November
  #90  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:38 PM
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Ah, too bad. I know how kind Bernie bros have been. You’d better believe I’m going to gloat.



Yes, Bernie will win CA and rack up delegates there. Stopping Bernie elsewhere is great.
Okay. Shame that you're judging me based on the actions of others, but best wishes to you nonetheless.
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  #91  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:43 PM
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Ah, too bad. I know how kind Bernie bros have been. Youd better believe Im going to gloat.

Yes, Bernie will win CA and rack up delegates there. Stopping Bernie elsewhere is great.
I'm surprised CA is so definitely projected for Bernie. I can see LA county doing that, but everyone? I'm over 45, so maybe I just don't see that.

Anyway, off to vote for... someone. I'll have to bring a coin to flip.
  #92  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:56 PM
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Why am I watching this for hour after hour? Oh, yeah: In '64 I sat through both conventions gavel to gavel. I was ten.

I'm a sick puppy.

Last edited by dropzone; 03-03-2020 at 06:57 PM.
  #93  
Old 03-03-2020, 06:58 PM
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Ah, too bad. I know how kind Bernie bros have been. Youd better believe Im going to gloat.

Yes, Bernie will win CA and rack up delegates there. Stopping Bernie elsewhere is great.
Sigh. You are much worse than any BernieBro I've ever met. Its like you have zero self awareness.
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  #94  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:06 PM
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Bloomberg wins American Samoa , Gabbard gets 1 delegate, she was born there.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:08 PM
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Did NBC just uncall NC?
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:09 PM
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Damn, I walk out for 20 minutes and the talking heads are having Biden winning everything! I should post a watch to make sure he's not coming to claim my dog.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:10 PM
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Bloomberg wins American Samoa , Gabbard gets 1 delegate, she was born there.

$500 million well spent.
  #98  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:11 PM
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Virginia numbers: Bloomy and Warren around 10%..no delegates.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:18 PM
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I've already seen complaints from Bernie supporters on social media complaining that Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawing before Super Tuesday was some sort of dirty trick by the DNC to hurt Bernie.
Non-viable candidates withdraw and throw their support to the candidate most in line with their worldview. I'm shocked, shocked..................
  #100  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:20 PM
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Virginia numbers: Bloomy and Warren around 10%..no delegates.
CNN has Warren with 1 delegate.
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