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  #101  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:22 PM
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dalej42, are you talking about Bernie Bros, or about supporters of Sanders? There's very little overlap between the two groups, and Sanders has no influence at all over what the Bernie Bros say. Trump might have some, depending on how grateful Putin is to him.
  #102  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:25 PM
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CNN has Warren with 1 delegate.
My point still stands.

The overall state vote allocates the majority of the delegates. In districts, candidates can rise or fall above or below the 15% threshold. Unless that is consistent statewide, the picking off of a delegate here or there is the difference between dick or fuck all.

Still haven't heard any definitive statements but it seems as if Bloomy and Warren have underperformed.
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:29 PM
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Rove says Bloomy has made bank in NC and AL. (IOW 15%)
  #104  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:29 PM
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My point still stands.

The overall state vote allocates the majority of the delegates. In districts, candidates can rise or fall above or below the 15% threshold. Unless that is consistent statewide, the picking off of a delegate here or there is the difference between dick or fuck all.

Still haven't heard any definitive statements but it seems as if Bloomy and Warren have underperformed.
Oh, yeah. I was just saying Hey, she got one....

It's the little things, dontcha think?
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Old 03-03-2020, 07:32 PM
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Donna Brazile states that Bloomy will get less than 100 delegates tonight, perhaps leaking exit polls.
  #106  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:33 PM
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NBC now says Biden has taken an early Lead in Mass, with Warren running third.

It's shaping up to be a long night for her.
  #107  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:41 PM
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I know the big interest tonight is the Democratic presidential contest, but here in Alabama we have a race on for the Senate, with a number of Republicans vying to knock off Doug Jones, the Democrat that won in 2018 after Jeff Sessions left to become head of the Justice Department (and we all know how well that went) and the Republicans, showing that they can goof up nominees too, lost with Roy "10 Commandments/Youth Molestation Charges" Moore. No less than seven candidates are up tonight, trying to squeeze into a runoff, including Mr. Sessions himself, Millionaire businessman Stan Adair, ex-Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, and of course, eager for a rematch, Ol'Roy Moore himself. All the candidate have tried to protray themselves as more firmly attached to Trump than the others, and making comments on how trump doesn't trust Session, who is still probably going to win the primary and the general election (this is Alabama, remember). Only question is who finishes second and will it go to a runoff.

Not much Democratic interest here (Biden is projected to win), but how the Senate looks in 2020 is also going to be very important, and this is a seat the Democrats are probably favored to lose unless the Alabama Republicans shoot themselves in the feets again.

We shall see.
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  #108  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:44 PM
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watching Washington Post live stream of coverage on Youtube. All I can say right now is I cannot believe how pathetic, how weak, how utterly FEEBLE, Mike Bloomberg is. He is truly delusional talking about his plan to beat Donald Trump. It's madness. Lunacy! I cannot believe what I'm witnessing. He is such a narcissistic asshole. He has all the money in the world but NO balls, NO swagger, NO fire, NO heart. Fuck him.
  #109  
Old 03-03-2020, 07:48 PM
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All the candidate have tried to protray themselves as more firmly attached to Trump than the others, and making comments on how trump doesn't trust Session, who is still probably going to win the primary and the general election (this is Alabama, remember)
Just saying, but if Trump wins in November it might be good to have Sessions as one of the Republican Senators.
  #110  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:07 PM
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dalej42, are you talking about Bernie Bros, or about supporters of Sanders? There's very little overlap between the two groups, and Sanders has no influence at all over what the Bernie Bros say. Trump might have some, depending on how grateful Putin is to him.
Then why did Sanders hire the trolls he did? Sanders owns the Bros.
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  #111  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:15 PM
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One bit of party-wide good news - AFAICT from various online sources, Democratic turnout is way, way up since '16. Sometimes in the 538 live blog said that VA turnout was up by 67%! So that's great news. I think Biden is a very, very weak candidate, but if he gets the nomination I hope I'm wrong.
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  #112  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:18 PM
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The overall state vote allocates the majority of the delegates.
It doesn't in actual states. The majority of delegates are determined in the districts. American Samoa is different. They determine all delegates at the territory level since they don't have congressional districts.

Taking VA as an example ...since it was the first state I saw called tonight. Of their 99 total pledged delegates 65 are selected at the district level. (cite)

As a rough rule of thumb, only about 1/3 of delegates are determined at large/statewide.
  #113  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:26 PM
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One bit of party-wide good news - AFAICT from various online sources, Democratic turnout is way, way up since '16. Sometimes in the 538 live blog said that VA turnout was up by 67%! So that's great news. I think Biden is a very, very weak candidate, but if he gets the nomination I hope I'm wrong.
That's why Biden isn't running alone, and won't be through the rest of this primary slog.

The sooner Biden can lock up that 1,991, the sooner we'll get back to the Biden/Obama buddy movie. It will run throughout the general election. Meantime, surrogates Klobuchar (soon to be Veep, I've said so for ages), Buttegieg, O'Rourke, Harris, Clyburn, Bloomberg, Steyer, Booker, Inslee et. al will fan out all across the country, giving Biden the help he needs to finish up this campaign.

Biden will be a fine president. He governs far better than he campaigns.

I, too, am very relieved to hear about the turnout numbers. This is going to be a turnout election. The theme is basic human decency.
  #114  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:27 PM
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One bit of party-wide good news - AFAICT from various online sources, Democratic turnout is way, way up since '16. Sometimes in the 538 live blog said that VA turnout was up by 67%!
It is good news, but we may want to take moderate expectations. The Primary is a lot more competitive this year than it was in 2016, so one would expect it would generate more interest.
  #115  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:31 PM
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watching Washington Post live stream of coverage on Youtube. All I can say right now is I cannot believe how pathetic, how weak, how utterly FEEBLE, Mike Bloomberg is. He is truly delusional talking about his plan to beat Donald Trump. It's madness. Lunacy! I cannot believe what I'm witnessing. He is such a narcissistic asshole. He has all the money in the world but NO balls, NO swagger, NO fire, NO heart. Fuck him.
You're missing the point if you believe he really believes he's in the race; Bloomy knows he was probably done before tonight. Don't judge Bloomberg's words; judge his money and his messaging in his ads going forward. Bloomberg paid $500 mil, which will mean something. He doesn't necessarily get to be the pilot, but he gets to sit in the cockpit.
  #116  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:31 PM
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It is good news, but we may want to take moderate expectations. The Primary is a lot more competitive this year than it was in 2016, so one would expect it would generate more interest.
You're right, but inordinately high turnout has held steady ever since Trump set foot in the Oval Office. I think people are paying more attention than we generally give them credit for.

That said, foot on the gas all the way through November. Complacency is not an option.
  #117  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:32 PM
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Results are showing a strong trend. Certainly now it is time for Warren and Bloomberg to bow out.
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  #118  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:34 PM
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Sanders will likely win California and he could win Texas, but Super Tuesday belongs to Joe Biden.
  #119  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:35 PM
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Oh, Warren can stay in.
  #120  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:43 PM
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As another Doper pointed out, that 15% threshold is important because anything less than that (in a district or a state) means those votes simply never existed. If we assume for now (though it isn’t quite true) that all Warren votes would have gone to Sanders, and all Bloomberg votes would have gone to Biden, then those sub-15% “disappeared” votes matter. (We assume the Bloomberg and Warren delegates will eventually go to Biden and Sanders, respectively).

In Tennessee, for example, Warren’s votes — and thus (we’re assuming here) some Sanders votes - are poof, gone, while Bloomberg’s — and this some of Biden’s — are intact, because Bloomberg cleared 15% in that state. In some other state (like Massachusetts) it might go the other way. In yet another, neither Bloomberg nor Warren clears 15%, but one of them has more votes than the other, and thus bad news for their ideological “partner.”

Last edited by JKellyMap; 03-03-2020 at 08:46 PM.
  #121  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:44 PM
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That's why Biden isn't running alone, and won't be through the rest of this primary slog.

The sooner Biden can lock up that 1,991, the sooner we'll get back to the Biden/Obama buddy movie. It will run throughout the general election. Meantime, surrogates Klobuchar (soon to be Veep, I've said so for ages), Buttegieg, O'Rourke, Harris, Clyburn, Bloomberg, Steyer, Booker, Inslee et. al will fan out all across the country, giving Biden the help he needs to finish up this campaign.

Biden will be a fine president. He governs far better than he campaigns.

I, too, am very relieved to hear about the turnout numbers. This is going to be a turnout election. The theme is basic human decency.
And we will also have the Clintons and Michelle Obama out there.
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  #122  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:48 PM
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And we will also have the Clintons and Michelle Obama out there.
I kind of hope the Clintons sit this one out. But I'd be delighted to see Jimmy Carter, John Kerry, Al Gore, Valerie Plame, Mark Kelly, Stacey Abrams, Jon Tester and many others jump to the fore.
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Old 03-03-2020, 08:56 PM
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I kind of hope the Clintons sit this one out. But I'd be delighted to see Jimmy Carter, John Kerry, Al Gore, Valerie Plame, Mark Kelly, Stacey Abrams, Jon Tester and many others jump to the fore.
Bill Clinton still knows how to work an audience. I don't want him sitting out.
  #124  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:58 PM
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Sanders will likely win California and he could win Texas, but Super Tuesday belongs to Joe Biden.
Yeah, Biden seems to be winning most states, even fairly liberal states like MA. However 7 of the states in play today are southern states, which have high black population who go heavily for Biden.

Sanders will probably win TX & CA which make up half the delegate count from today. He also won CO. Obviously he will win VT (But by a smaller margin than he won the state in 2016).

At the end of the night I'm guessing the delegates awarded will be roughly similar, maybe ~600 something for Biden and ~500 something for Sanders.

I believe latino population lean towards Sanders, at least they did in NV. I'm not sure how that'll impact southwestern primary states.
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  #125  
Old 03-03-2020, 08:59 PM
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Sanders will likely win California and he could win Texas, but Super Tuesday belongs to Joe Biden.
Early exit polls seem to have Biden running away with it (except in Vermont...no surprise there).

Biden keeps doing inexplicably well with the black community.
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  #126  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:00 PM
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Full disclosure: I voted for Warren in Colorado.

This is shaping up to be a monster night for Biden. He may end Super Tuesday with both the popular vote and, more importantly, the pledged delegates leads. That was unthinkable a week and half ago.

After tonight we're 40% of the way there and Bernie's paths to the nomination are closing with a path through the midwest his lifeline.
  #127  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:06 PM
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Early exit polls seem to have Biden running away with it (except in Vermont...no surprise there).

Biden keeps doing inexplicably well with the black community.
I wouldn't say that it is inexplicable. Many associate him with Obama.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 03-03-2020 at 09:07 PM.
  #128  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:08 PM
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Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota may all go Biden. Unbelievable.

Even if things swing Bernie's way as the vote comes in, he's only going to net a handful of delegates there. Massively below expectations.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:09 PM
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I wouldn't say that it is inexplicable. Many associate him with Obama.
That shit is explicableAF.
  #130  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:10 PM
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Early exit polls seem to have Biden running away with it (except in Vermont...no surprise there).

Biden keeps doing inexplicably well with the black community.
No disrespect to the Latino community, but the states that really, really matter are states in which the black community felt uninspired to show up and vote: Wisconsin (Metro Milwaukee); Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh, Philadelphia); North Carolina (Charlotte). And Florida's Latino vote isn't pro-Bernie; in fact, Bernie-ism might cost Florida, not just in the presidential election but down ballot. Dems aren't going to lose California and they're not likely to win Texas, so I don't think Bernie really accomplishes anything by winning those two states other than racking up delegates.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:10 PM
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E.W. does not appear to be doing well. That disappoints me, greatly. She is, by FAR, the best candidate for Prez this time around in my estimation.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:11 PM
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Bill Clinton still knows how to work an audience. I don't want him sitting out.
Exactly, thereís certain places he can definitely be an asset, even those senate races in purple states could use a boost from Bill.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:14 PM
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Maine, Massachusetts, and Minnesota may all go Biden. Unbelievable.

Even if things swing Bernie's way as the vote comes in, he's only going to net a handful of delegates there. Massively below expectations.
Also Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
  #134  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:17 PM
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E.W. does not appear to be doing well. That disappoints me, greatly. She is, by FAR, the best candidate for Prez this time around in my estimation.
And she has definitely lost her home state and may finish 3rd.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:19 PM
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Sad that some folks like you are so vindictive towards millions of your fellow Democrats. I'm a decent guy who just so happens to disagree with you on the best candidate for the party, it's a shame that you enjoy this kind of childish cruelty.

Itís true that you donít much resemble the legion of really nasty Bernie Bros that many of us have had to deal with for years now. But I also really dislike Bernie himself. He is dishonest and destructive to the party. So itís hard for me not to feel schadenfreude.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:19 PM
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Biden takes Minnesota.

Thank you, Amy!
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:21 PM
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Also Arkansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
As far as I know, those are done deals and going Biden.

Oklahoma is mildly interesting because Sanders won that over Clinton in the 2016 caucus. They switched to a primary this year which may be part of the story.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:22 PM
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Biden takes Massachusetts! Wow.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:25 PM
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As far as I know, those are done deals and going Biden.

Oklahoma is mildly interesting because Sanders won that over Clinton in the 2016 caucus. They switched to a primary this year which may be part of the story.
I'm caught up in the moment.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:27 PM
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Watching/listening to Biden's speech right now. Awful. Awful. AWFUL! Sounds like he has a mouthful of marbles. "The gun mannuhfacturers." He sounds like he has dentures that are falling out. Just at this moment, there's also a giant wave of boos from somewhere in the crowd. More mumbling and sentence fragments that make no sense.. oh my God, I can't stand it. UGH. UGH! Cringe, maximum cringe.

This guy is going to lose to Trump.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:28 PM
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I hope Biden takes Bloomberg’s money. Maybe 2 billion or so can polish that senile turd. Jeez, he just confused his wife with his sister. He’s pathetic and he sounds drunk. I wish I drank. Trump’s going to beat him like a drum.

Actually, I think he’ll be under indictment in Ukraine before then. Trump and his cronies are still working on it and they’re making good progress since they got rid of the ambassador and all the tattletales. He’s already under investigation there.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:33 PM
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Yup, he sounds plastered. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks so. Biden and Trump both claim to be teetotalers. I'm highly skeptical.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:35 PM
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Watching/listening to Biden's speech right now. Awful. Awful. AWFUL! Sounds like he has a mouthful of marbles. "The gun mannuhfacturers." He sounds like he has dentures that are falling out. Just at this moment, there's also a giant wave of boos from somewhere in the crowd. More mumbling and sentence fragments that make no sense.. oh my God, I can't stand it. UGH. UGH! Cringe, maximum cringe.

This guy is going to lose to Trump.
Even if Biden beats Trump, how is he going to win reelection in 2024? His cognitive function and speech will be all the worse by then. He'd likely lose to a Republican challenger, or would have to step aside to let some other Democrat run.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:38 PM
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Watching/listening to Biden's speech right now. Awful. Awful. AWFUL! Sounds like he has a mouthful of marbles. "The gun mannuhfacturers." He sounds like he has dentures that are falling out. Just at this moment, there's also a giant wave of boos from somewhere in the crowd. More mumbling and sentence fragments that make no sense.. oh my God, I can't stand it. UGH. UGH! Cringe, maximum cringe.

This guy is going to lose to Trump.
I'll take Biden in a war of oratory with Trump.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:39 PM
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As far as I know, those are done deals and going Biden.

Oklahoma is mildly interesting because Sanders won that over Clinton in the 2016 caucus. They switched to a primary this year which may be part of the story.
Was there any monkey business in the Oklahoma caucus in 2016? Didnít really follow that one. In Minnesota, the Bernie Bros tried to block all the parking at caucus sights in addition to their usual bullying.
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  #146  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:42 PM
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Watching/listening to Biden's speech right now. Awful. Awful. AWFUL! Sounds like he has a mouthful of marbles. "The gun mannuhfacturers." He sounds like he has dentures that are falling out. Just at this moment, there's also a giant wave of boos from somewhere in the crowd. More mumbling and sentence fragments that make no sense.. oh my God, I can't stand it. UGH. UGH! Cringe, maximum cringe.

This guy is going to lose to Trump.
Not only that, but Biden will probably constantly move to the right to appease republicans into cooperating with him (and they won't cooperate with him).

Ah well.
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Old 03-03-2020, 09:48 PM
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One bit of party-wide good news - AFAICT from various online sources, Democratic turnout is way, way up since '16. Sometimes in the 538 live blog said that VA turnout was up by 67%! So that's great news. I think Biden is a very, very weak candidate, but if he gets the nomination I hope I'm wrong.
No, youíre not wrong. Heís very weak, for several reasons:

1). His policy platform is unclear. Good candidates have signature policies that everyone knows, and a vibe (for want of a better word) which can be summed up in a sentence. Trump has this. Heís about trade, the economy, and building the wall. His vibe is confident and patriotic, and his slogan, ďKeeping America GreatĒ does a good job of putting that in peopleís heads.

Bernie has this, too. Heís about M4A, student debt relief, and fixing wealth inequality. His vibe is justice, fairness, and community, and his slogan ďNot Me, UsĒ does a good job of putting that in peopleís heads.

Questions for Biden supporters:

1) What are Bidenís two or three signature issues?
2) Whatís Bidenís vibe?
3) Without googling whatís his slogan?
4) Consider the people in your immediate circle. How many you think would know the answers to the above questions? Is the number higher or lower than the number would be for Bernie and Trump?

2). Biden canít attack Trump on many of his negatives. For instance, Biden canít attack Trump for being a sexual predator. And if he tries, Trump will tweet a video of Biden sniffing womenís hair, or inappropriately touching little girls, or sucking a womanís fingers without consent (expect to see that one a lot - yuck!) and thatíll be the end of that.

He also canít attack Trump for being racist. Biden has worked with some profoundly virulent racists over the course of his career. He spoke at Strom Thurmondís funeral. He called Obama ĎCleaní and ĎArticulateí. And yeah, Obama picked him for VP, but itís 2020. The ďI have black friendsĒ defence carries very little weight these days. Besides, what specifically has Biden done for Black Americans? Whatís he sponsored? Whatís he voted for? He needs to have a quick and convincing answer to this question because Trump will be asking it a lot.

If Biden gets picked, expect to see Trump surrogates retweeting Kamalaís rhetorically effective takedown of Biden in the first debate. The fact that Biden opposed bussing will be an effective distraction if he tries to accuse Trump of racism. And yeah, opposition to bussing was common back in the Ď80s, but guess what? Already, youíre no longer talking about Trump!

3) Biden is an embarrassingly bad communicator. Well, thatís the charitable interpretation. The uncharitable interpretation is that he has Alzheimerís. Heís the right age to get it, and his mistakes are serious enough (and weird enough) to make reasonable people wonder. Whether itís telling people that heís running for the United States Senate and not correcting himself, challenging 80 year old ex-Marines to push-up contests, or calling a young woman a ďlying, dog-faced pony soldierĒ (I mean, what the fuck?!?) for daring to ask him a tough question, itís clear that 2020 Biden is a shadow of 2008 Biden. And these are just the examples I could be bothered to type up. There are countless others, and if he wins the nomination thereíll be many more.

For this reason, itís going to be very hard for Biden to use Trumpís incoherence as evidence that heís unfit for the job. Bernie wouldnít have had this problem. Age hasnít dulled Bernieís faculties one bit.

4). Bernie inspires people, and he has a proven ability to organise them on a massive scale. Joe Biden simply doesnít. Iíve seen videos of Bernie speaking to packed auditoriums, bringing struggling people on stage, talking about their problems as if there was no-one else in the room, and comforting them as theyíve broken down in tears of gratitude. You just donít get that with Biden.

Bernieís supporters are energetic, highly motivated, and, most importantly, support him because they actually want what heís selling.

Bidenís supporterís arenít energetic, arenít highly motivated, and arenít entirely sure what heís selling. Indeed, a lot of his supporters only support him because they anticipate that other people will support him. This is one explanation for why Biden enjoys so much black support. Black people think white people will prefer him.. Iím not saying theyíre wrong, but they did think the same thing about Hillary Clinton and look how that turned out.

Clearly, a campaign motivated by energetic people who believe in it is going to be more inspiring than a campaign led by half-hearted pragmatists who only back it because they think itíll sell with people who are not them. Bernieís supporters will walk through fire for him, and that enthusiasm is contagious. You simply cannot say the same about Joe Biden.

5) Joe Biden voted for the illegal and immoral invasion of Iraq. And I, for one, would be very keen to know precisely when and why that ceased to be an immediate disqualifier for the role of Democratic nominee.

I suppose no post hyping Bernie would be complete without saying something about ďsocialismĒ. I donít know if the socialist label would cost Bernie the next election. However, I do know that the Washington Insider label cost Hillary the last one. Joe Biden is a Washington Insider. Hell, as VP for Obama heís one of the most Insider-iest Insiders in Washington. Thereís a poll which has been doing the rounds recently, showing that people would be less inclined to vote for a socialist than a Muslim or an atheist.

Leaving aside questions of veracity (after all, a lot of people would be embarrassed to tell a pollster they wouldnít vote for a Muslim) Iíd be keen to see a poll asking whether people would be less inclined to vote for a socialist than a Washington Insider, given that Congress has an approval rating slightly below that of super-gonorrhea. Hillary said that, apparently, no-one likes Bernie. Maybe thatís a point in his favour?

Anyway, itís late where I am and this post is already long enough. But, long as it is, it barely scratches the surface of why I think Biden is a dreadful candidate. If he gets the nomination, Trump will wreck his shit like itís nothing. Itíll be stomach-turning.
  #148  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:51 PM
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Not only that, but Biden will probably constantly move to the right to appease republicans into cooperating with him (and they won't cooperate with him).

Ah well.
You mean, move to the right to get legislation passed.

It's legislation that changes people's lives - shit that gets passed into law -, not campaign promises.
  #149  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
No, you’re not wrong. He’s very weak, for several reasons:
Good post, IMO.

I am largely in agreement with what you wrote.

I'd add that Biden will bring nothing to down-ticket races. Zero. Zilch. His presence at the top of the ticket will not change the Democratic Party to what so many people want it to be, and that will be a terrible error for legislative purposes.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-03-2020 at 09:57 PM.
  #150  
Old 03-03-2020, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
Questions for Biden supporters:

1) What are Bidenís two or three signature issues?
1. He's not Trump.
2. He will follow the rule of law.
3. He will follow the Constitution.
4. He will nominate moderate judges (and not nominate wacko right wing ideologue judges)
5. He will protect and expand Obamacare - flawed though it may be is much better than what existed before and expanded coverage.
6. He will allow asylum seekers and immigrants to go through the normal process.
7. He won't put immigrants in cages.
8. He will put competent people in positions of power
9. He will try to increase taxes for the rich and keep taxation moderate for everyone else
10. He will protect the LGBTQ community.
11. Probably a lot of other shit.

I'd rather have 10-15 issues that are achieveable than 3 "signatures" that don't have shit chance of passing.
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