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Old 03-02-2020, 09:55 AM
2ManyTacos is offline
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The Supreme Court will once again rule on the Affordable Care Act.


My device is not letting me post a link, but the story is up now on Politico.

And lol a decision potentially eliminating the law will conveniently not come until after the election, inhibiting any political liabilities for Trump.

I am on the record as lambasting this latest Anti-ACA suit as being complete bad faith bullshit that has no merit whatsoever, but I also called on here a couple of years ago that SCOTUS would hear it because OF COURSE SCOTUS hears every anti-ACA case.

On the one hand, Trump lies his ass off on healthcare, so maybe an obvious spotlight on his administration's crazy unpopular push to eliminate Ocare could be problematic for him. On the other hand, the decision is conveniently timed to not come out until after the election, so who TF knows how the political case will play out.

How do you think this SCOTUS decision will impact the election? How will the case be decided, in your view?
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:00 AM
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In America, politics seems mostly divorced from policy so I don't know if it'll affect election outcomes much.

Lots of poor people don't vote, so if they lose their medicaid they'll complain but they won't vote.

Lots of conservatives who benefit from the ACA will find a way to blame democrats and black people rather than the republicans they voted for for why they lost their health insurance.

Lots of democrats will just get angry, but they would've voted anyway.

For the most part I don't think it'll change much. Democrats may raise more money and get more volunteer hours out of it though, thats about it.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:46 AM
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Lots of conservatives who benefit from the ACA will find a way to blame democrats and black people rather than the republicans they voted for for why they lost their health insurance.
I've said before that the Republicans don't want to eliminate the ACA. They want to keep it around in name while changing it to make sure it doesn't work. That way they can discredit the idea of public health care and point to the mess they've made of it as proof that it's a bad idea.
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Old 03-02-2020, 09:08 PM
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This argument, unlike the first one, is especially poor legal reasoning. I think SCOTUS took it up to reverse it 9-0.
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Old 03-02-2020, 10:27 PM
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This argument, unlike the first one, is especially poor legal reasoning. I think SCOTUS took it up to reverse it 9-0.
6-3 at best (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Thomas dissenting), but more likely 5-4 again (add Alito to the dissent).
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:04 PM
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I think this demonstrates how completely corrupted SCOTUS has become. They will strike the law but they will wait until after the election to do so so that it doesn't hurt their party.

I wonder how they would rule if someone brought a case against social security. And the NLRB.
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Old 03-03-2020, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Hari Seldon View Post
I think this demonstrates how completely corrupted SCOTUS has become. They will strike the law but they will wait until after the election to do so so that it doesn't hurt their party.

I wonder how they would rule if someone brought a case against social security. And the NLRB.
Not exactly the same but the Janus decision to cripple public-sector unions.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:29 PM
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I think this demonstrates how completely corrupted SCOTUS has become. They will strike the law but they will wait until after the election to do so so that it doesn't hurt their party.

I wonder how they would rule if someone brought a case against social security. And the NLRB.
This is unfair. It is March. The term ends in June. Everything that they are granting now will be heard and decided next term. There is no need to expedite this because the status quo remains in place. You are seeing conspiracies where none exist.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
This argument, unlike the first one, is especially poor legal reasoning. I think SCOTUS took it up to reverse it 9-0.
Sorry, I'm not following. What is the argument that you find poor legal reasoning? Do you mean 9-0 to uphold the ACA, or eliminate the ACA?
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:37 PM
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Agree with Ultra Vires. The Court has a regular schedule, and right now it's finishing up the cases that it's heard (or has yet to hear) in this cycle. There's nothing unusual, n granting cert. now and hearing the case in the fall.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:49 PM
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6-3 at best (Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Thomas dissenting), but more likely 5-4 again (add Alito to the dissent).
This. No way Roberts does an about-face on Obamacare.
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Old 03-03-2020, 03:54 PM
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He will if Trump wants him to.
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Old 03-03-2020, 05:37 PM
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There are some cases they hear now that will be decided in June. It's up to them how long they think they need to decide a case.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:28 PM
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Sorry, I'm not following. What is the argument that you find poor legal reasoning? Do you mean 9-0 to uphold the ACA, or eliminate the ACA?
The current argument to invalidate the ACA. I supported the first argument in 2012 to strike down the ACA. This argument, IMHO, is particularly bad.

The Court could have let the 5th Circuit screw around with it more, but if I had to bet and betting were allowed, I would go with a 9-0 reversal which upholds the ACA.
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