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Old 03-04-2020, 07:31 AM
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The “common knowledge” on Warren’s voters is wrong.


Take this with a grain of salt, it’s based on anecdotes and my best guess, which just this year alone has been wrong several times. None the less, it seems that the assumption is that if Bloomberg and Warren were to drop out that Bloomberg’s voters would mostly go to Biden and that Warren’s would go to Sanders. I think this line of thinking is wrong regarding Warren. Sanders is unlikely to get the majority of Warren supporters. The people who I personally know who support Warren are doing so (the way I see it) due to identity politics. They are older, educated white women who are liberal. They also intensely dislike Sanders, and would likely change their support to Biden rather than Sanders should Warren drop out.

To make a long story short, at this point I think Sanders benefits by having Bloomberg and Warren in the race. If Warren drops out, it won’t help Sanders.
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:46 AM
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Take this with a grain of salt, it’s based on anecdotes and my best guess, which just this year alone has been wrong several times. None the less, it seems that the assumption is that if Bloomberg and Warren were to drop out that Bloomberg’s voters would mostly go to Biden and that Warren’s would go to Sanders. I think this line of thinking is wrong regarding Warren. Sanders is unlikely to get the majority of Warren supporters. The people who I personally know who support Warren are doing so (the way I see it) due to identity politics. They are older, educated white women who are liberal. They also intensely dislike Sanders, and would likely change their support to Biden rather than Sanders should Warren drop out.

To make a long story short, at this point I think Sanders benefits by having Bloomberg and Warren in the race. If Warren drops out, it won’t help Sanders.
I wanted Warren and I agree with you about her support. I wanted her because she's the smartest and most thoughtful candidate and I think she'd be way out in front if she were a man. Her work to create the CFPB was fantastic and it was having a real positive effect until it was gutted. She also has much less baggage than Biden or Sanders.

Sanders is last on my list (I'll vote for him in the general election, of course, if it comes to that).
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:52 AM
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When. When Warren and Bloomberg drop out, their supporters (who have not already done so) seem much more likely to go to Biden.
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:06 AM
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She was my preferred candidate, but her campaign failed to launch. The sad fact is that Warren doesn't really have any supporters, so it doesn't matter where her voters go. The few of us around are almost surely going to vote for whoever gets the final nomination. I liked her although I had reservations about a couple of unforced errors, like stupidly engaging with Trump on that Pocahontas crap. I don't fit the description of a Warren supporter in the OP in that I am not a woman, but it is right about one thing: part of my support of Warren was based on my dislike of Sanders. I liked the positions of Warren and Sanders, but thought that she was the better candidate, I have a long history of backing the wrong horse in primaries.
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:08 AM
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DP

Last edited by madmonk28; 03-04-2020 at 08:11 AM.
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:16 AM
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They are older, educated white women who are liberal. They also intensely dislike Sanders, and would likely change their support to Biden rather than Sanders should Warren drop out.
Well, I don't love being called "older" (I'm 47) and I wouldn't describe my dislike of Sanders as intense, this describes me. I voted for Warren in NC, but if she hadn't been on the ballot, I would have gone with Biden over Sanders. IMO, Bernie engenders the same sort of tribalism that Trump does and I think that's extremely unhealthy for this country.
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:41 AM
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Yeah, my read on it is that the Warren supporters who view Warren and Sanders as roughly equally as acceptable have already switched to Sanders, hence why there was a huge slump in Warren's numbers as the progressives consolidated around Sanders. The remaining Warren supporters, a lot of them I know have a deep antipathy towards Sanders but can't quite bring themselves to vote for Biden which is why they remain Warren supporters. If she drops out, I don't think it's going to be the boost Sanders supporters are hoping for.
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Old 03-04-2020, 08:51 AM
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I don't dislike Sanders, but if Warren isn't viable, I'll vote for Biden. This has to do with their policy statements, not "identity politics."
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Old 03-04-2020, 10:08 AM
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Flik, you make a good point — I think a higher percentage of Bloomberg supporters/voters will switch easily to Biden, compared to the percentage of Warren supporters/voters who who will switch easily to Sanders — and a lot of that difference has to do with people who are still hoping for a woman candidate and president this year (at least, that’s part for their reasoning), but didn’t see Klobuchar as having much of a chance to be that person (her polling, her debating...), and of course Liz is still in this while Amy is not.
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Old 03-04-2020, 10:22 AM
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I voted for Warren in CO on Saturday, before the results from SC. Had it already been (effectively) a two-person race, I would've voted for Biden over Sanders. For me, this election is about repair, not revolution. I want someone with expertise in running the government. I like expertise. Experts are sometimes wrong, but I think, more often, they do their jobs so well we don't need to pay attention. Biden may be a little past his prime, but he's been around long enough to be able to gather the most competent, experienced people in the country to fix the omnishambles that Trump will certainly leave in his wake.

I think Warren could've done that, too. I'm much less confident that Sanders can.
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Old 03-04-2020, 10:31 AM
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Previous to this OP I was also thinking that Warren supporters would all go to Sanders. However now that its posted, I realized that if she were viable Warren would be my first choice as candidate, and that Sanders was my last choice. So I am actually a counter example to my own assumption. The other posts to this thread seem to confirm the OP's notion. So are there any Warren supporters who are actually moving in the direction of Sanders?

Last edited by Buck Godot; 03-04-2020 at 10:35 AM.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:11 AM
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Warren supporter here. (43-year-old white college educated man, if we’re doing the identity politics check) I like Warren best, but I’m also a pragmatist. I think Warren could have brought much of the country together, but if it’s gotta be Bernie or Biden, Biden is more of a Uniter than Bernie. He is more likely to win the crucial swing states.

If the vote were purely on a “whose policy do I like better”, then I’d vote Bernie over Joe.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:20 AM
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My vote is already recorded for Warren, btw so my opinion doesn’t matter much. Although since I am in Iowa, I have little confidence that my vote is recorded correctly. ;-)
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:25 AM
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This was a very good article on Warren voters just published yesterday https://www.vox.com/2020/3/3/2116252...izabeth-warren

I think some Dopers will likely fall into the demographics described in the article: left home to get at least a 4 year degree (with no intent to return) and then moved again after graduation.
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Old 03-04-2020, 11:58 AM
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I feel bad for Warren, she was probably the smartest one in the field and in my opinion the most likeable of the progressives. If she drops out, her supporters will split in some manner between Biden and Sanders. I'm not sure if it's going to be significantly more in one direction or the other.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:02 PM
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I've never met a Warren supporter in the "wild", I've only seen them on Facebook. Here's how I'd sum them up:

"The American electorate is virulently sexist. So we need to nominate Elizabeth Warren in order to beat Trump."
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:08 PM
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As a Warren voter, had she dropped out leaving only the B-Boys, I would've voted Biden.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:11 PM
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I've never met a Warren supporter in the "wild", I've only seen them on Facebook. Here's how I'd sum them up:

"The American electorate is virulently sexist. So we need to nominate Elizabeth Warren in order to beat Trump."
I voted for Warren. The American electorate being virulently sexist didn't enter into the equation. I'm shifting to Biden, not Bernie. We need a return to normalcy before we launch a revolution.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:12 PM
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So are there any Warren supporters who are actually moving in the direction of Sanders?
I voted for Warren yesterday but was prepared to vote for Bernie if he won the nomination. I voted for Bernie in the primary four years ago. If it is Biden I will probably vote for the Green Party.


I am a 49 year old white woman. Representation is important for many reasons. I think the phrase "identity politics" is extremely dismissive.

Warren is also my senator. I voted for her twice. All other things being equal between two candidates I would probably choose the one from an underrepresented demographic. But I would never base my vote on that entirely. I didn't vote for Hillary.

I like Warren and Sanders because I think they are bringing up important issues that have been ignored. Cost of housing, cost of education, need for improvement on the ACA, income inequality and just generally the increasing difficulty in attaining the kind of life the previous generations could generally expect. Warren edged out Bernie for me because she had better plans, IMHO.

Last edited by Nicest of the Damned; 03-04-2020 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:47 PM
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She has a lot of power right at this moment. It's a two man race and she is ideologically bound to one of them. She was a lot of peoples second choice.
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Old 03-04-2020, 01:46 PM
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I am a wonk and therefore I liked Warren the best. I like Bernie, but I am now supporting Biden for strategic reasons. As I have said before, I would vote for a steaming pile of horse manure if it were running against Trump (well maybe not Pence).

The real question is what will the Bernie Bros do?
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Old 03-04-2020, 02:59 PM
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https://medium.com/@teamwarren/next-steps-bfa8482e2fbc

Elizabeth and I are so grateful for all the hard work of everyone on this team — not only leading up to Super Tuesday, but in all the weeks and months before.
To every volunteer, donor, and supporter: Thank you for everything you’ve done.
Last night, we fell well short of our viability goals and projections, and we are disappointed in the results. We’re still waiting for more results to come in to get a better sense of the final delegate math. And we also all know the race has been extremely volatile in recent weeks and days with frontrunners changing at a pretty rapid pace.

But we are obviously disappointed, and Elizabeth is talking with our team to assess the path forward.

All of us have worked for Elizabeth long enough to know that she isn’t a lifetime politician and doesn’t think like one. She’s going to take time right now to think through the right way to continue this fight. There’s a lot at stake for this country and the millions of people who are falling further and further behind.
This decision is in her hands, and it’s important that she has the time and space to consider what comes next.

Elizabeth believes in her ideas and in the big, structural change that is badly needed to root out corruption in Washington and will decide what she thinks is the best way to advance them.
We’ll have more soon.
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Old 03-04-2020, 04:10 PM
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Same. I voted for Warren because I think she's the most competent person. I'm actually somewhat to the right of many of her progressive policies. My second choice preference is not strong. If she had dropped out I'd have voted for whoever looked most likely to win the nomination (which would have been Sanders before yesterday and Biden today). I think both Sanders and Biden would make fine presidents. I don't have a good intuition for which one will be better positioned to beat Trump.
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Old 03-04-2020, 05:58 PM
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I've never met a Warren supporter in the "wild", I've only seen them on Facebook. Here's how I'd sum them up:

"The American electorate is virulently sexist. So we need to nominate Elizabeth Warren in order to beat Trump."
Nope. I would support Warren because she's a wonky academic and wonky academics are my tribe.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nicest of the Damned View Post
I voted for Warren yesterday but was prepared to vote for Bernie if he won the nomination. I voted for Bernie in the primary four years ago. If it is Biden I will probably vote for the Green Party.
Please don't do this. We need every vote we can get against Trump, and while Biden may not be the dream candidate, he's superior in every way to the guy whose there now. You may think your protest vote will teach the Democrats that they need to be more progressive, but if Trump wins the only lesson that will be learned is that nice guys finish last and the ignorance division and hatred is the way to win elections. It will be Trump of Trump clones for the foreseeable future.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:12 PM
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I've never met a Warren supporter in the "wild", I've only seen them on Facebook. Here's how I'd sum them up:

"The American electorate is virulently sexist. So we need to nominate Elizabeth Warren in order to beat Trump."
I’d love to know the demographics of where you live. My immediate neighborhood is (was) probably 75% Warren. Urban, heavily LGBT, college educated (or creative) on the north side of Chicago. Some of them liked Elizabeth the wonk, some wanted revenge for Hillary, and others just liked the rainbow boa or the one liner about marrying just one woman if you could find one.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:22 PM
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White guy, 58, in California. I voted Warren because she's smart and capable as hell and has guts. When she drops out I'll shift to Biden. I would never support Sanders.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:28 PM
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Warren supporter here. (43-year-old white college educated man, if we’re doing the identity politics check) I like Warren best, but I’m also a pragmatist. I think Warren could have brought much of the country together, but if it’s gotta be Bernie or Biden, Biden is more of a Uniter than Bernie. He is more likely to win the crucial swing states.

If the vote were purely on a “whose policy do I like better”, then I’d vote Bernie over Joe.
Except for the fact that I don't turn 42 for a couple of weeks, this could have been my post. I agree word for word.

(Plus, while I like Bernie's policies better, I don't think he'd be effective as a President and has little to no chance of accomplishing what he's proposing).
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Old 03-05-2020, 09:57 AM
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Senator Warren is dropping out of the race. She will speak to the press later today. From what I’ve heard on CNN, she has spoken with Sanders but not with Biden. None the less my prediction is that she is not going to endorse either Biden or Sanders, at least not today.
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Old 03-05-2020, 10:37 AM
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Senator Warren is dropping out of the race. She will speak to the press later today. From what I’ve heard on CNN, she has spoken with Sanders but not with Biden. None the less my prediction is that she is not going to endorse either Biden or Sanders, at least not today.
She has apparently spoken to Biden as well.
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Old 03-05-2020, 11:27 AM
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My wife is a Warren supporter. She's going to Biden now, preferring his pragmatism and also strongly disliking Sanders for 2016.
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Old 03-05-2020, 01:01 PM
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Looks like my choice (NY doesn't vote till April) is going to be between two people both of whom I'd originally hoped wouldn't run.

I had started off very undecided (some of the original large pack I knew nothing about when they first declared); but had been leaning more and more towards Warren as things started to narrow down. (FWIW, I'm mostly right in her demographic: college educated older woman.) I'm still a little undecided, but will probably be voting for Biden in April.

And for Just About Any Dem Who's Breathing, And If Necessary One Who Isn't in November.

-- I'm not a Bernie Hater. I voted for him in the 2016 primaries; in large part because I know a lot of people who have been listening to the Clinton hate for 30 years or so; I was terrified that Clinton would lose, and I thought well hell, if the Republicans are actually going to run Trump, maybe the Democrats can run an avowed socialist and win. But this is four years later; Trump was a stronger candidate than I expected; and I haven't been enthralled with Bernie's behavior in the meantime; though there seems unfortunately to have been more than enough bad behavior by nearly everybody involved in this primary race to go around. All of it pales next to Trump's, though.
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