Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #101  
Old 03-07-2020, 12:15 PM
Kolak of Twilo's Avatar
Kolak of Twilo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edgewater/Chicago
Posts: 4,050
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
...Sanders' problem isn't his personality; it's that his campaign, his proposals, his platform - whatever you want to call it - have run into a wall. And that wall is just the simple fact that while most left-leaning and left-center voters strongly agree that Trump needs to go, they quietly disagree with Sanders' vision for how to change this country, and most of them always have. If you're following Twitter or Facebook, this might be a surprise, but it's not a surprise to most people.

And instead of showing some flexibility, Sanders is doubling down even harder, probably because he sincerely believes in what he's doing and that he believes he can persuade more people if he'd just have a wider audience...
This I can easily agree with. Personally I have always liked Sanders. I agree things need to be changed and I agree those changes need to be radical. But you hit the nail on the head in mentioning flexibility. If people don't buy in 100% they are considered as bad as Trump's supporters. This purity policing is a huge turnoff for me.

And the yelling and humorlessness. I know I've had enough of that with DJT and I don't think most people want to listen to 4 more years of it even if it is coming from someone they agree with.
  #102  
Old 03-07-2020, 12:17 PM
Xema is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Posts: 12,463
I'd guess there's more than a small chance that - provided moderators are fair - Biden gets his head handed to him at the March 15 debate. Could give Bernie a significant boost.
  #103  
Old 03-07-2020, 03:37 PM
Kent Clark's Avatar
Kent Clark is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Posts: 27,768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xema View Post
provided moderators are fair
And yet another suggestion that the Democratic Party and the Big Media are out to get Sanders.

Just replace "Sanders" with "Trump" and it's like listening to Rush Limbaugh.
  #104  
Old 03-07-2020, 03:47 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xema View Post
I'd guess there's more than a small chance that - provided moderators are fair - Biden gets his head handed to him at the March 15 debate. Could give Bernie a significant boost.
The Bros are starting a rigged debate conspiracy already? Some things never change
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His
  #105  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:08 PM
Manwich is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Japan
Posts: 465
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alessan View Post
But not women, of course. Your votes have cooties.
"Bernie bros" remember?
  #106  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:11 PM
Manwich is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Japan
Posts: 465
In one of the debates, tickets started at $1,750 of your American dollars, in a country where the median income is $56,516.

The debates are mediated by the same corporate interests that fund Republicans and centrist Democrats. It isn't some loony conspiracy to say the debates are partisan.
  #107  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:14 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xema View Post
I'd guess there's more than a small chance that - provided moderators are fair - Biden gets his head handed to him at the March 15 debate. Could give Bernie a significant boost.
That might be too late: he needs to win in Michigan and Ohio. Michigan will already be in the books by the time of the debate, and Ohio will come only two days after the debate, and Biden appears to be fairly strong in both states. And you can probably forget Bernie winning in Florida. Ultimately, it looks like Bernie is going to repeat 2016, winning states that are white, some of which are dominated by Republicans anyway, but not really providing evidence that he could compete in winnable states that really matter.

I think Sanders' success in Nevada and New Hampshire does matter, but he needs bigger, more diverse states, particularly states with black voters, in order to really make the case that he could do as well as, if not better than, Biden in a fight against Trump. I won't disagree that Bernie is a more exciting candidate and personality than Biden. I respect his organization and his movement. There's a place for Sanders and his supporters; it's just not at the top of the ticket. The sooner his fans can accept that and think about how to work within the framework of the Democratic party, the better our chances of getting rid of Trump.
  #108  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:19 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
In one of the debates, tickets started at $1,750 of your American dollars, in a country where the median income is $56,516.

The debates are mediated by the same corporate interests that fund Republicans and centrist Democrats. It isn't some loony conspiracy to say the debates are partisan.
Just saying that the moderates aren't fair doesn't make it true. How have the moderators treated Bernie unfairly? I think the consensus has been the Bernie has done well in the debates and that Biden has been pretty damn shaky. Maybe there's more than the debate performances that is hurting Sanders.
  #109  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:29 PM
Manwich is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Japan
Posts: 465
Of course Bernie did well. He has retained full mental acuity (of a smart man), mainstream popular policies to talk about, a consistently great record.

Also, it has been discovered that your media is quite biased from people with money making it say things that help people with money. Some people wrote books about it.
  #110  
Old 03-07-2020, 05:38 PM
Little Nemo is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Western New York
Posts: 85,185
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
I think Sanders' basic likability and eloquence will help but I think now is the time for total destruction of his opponent, Biden.

Sanders should talk facts about Biden's record on Social Security, Iraq, Clarence Thomas (Supreme Court a big deal in your nation).

He's wide open and Sanders has been very polite and tried to work with Democrats, even though the party is riddled with corporate whores.
So you're picturing something like this:

"I hate you all. You're whores. Your candidate sucks, your beliefs suck, your opinions suck, and you suck. My goal is to totally destroy you.

And then afterwards, I hope I can count on your vote in November. I'm Bernie Sanders and I approved this message."
  #111  
Old 03-07-2020, 06:28 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
Of course Bernie did well. He has retained full mental acuity (of a smart man), mainstream popular policies to talk about, a consistently great record.

Also, it has been discovered that your media is quite biased from people with money making it say things that help people with money. Some people wrote books about it.
As I thought, you can't back it up.

Moving on...
  #112  
Old 03-07-2020, 06:49 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
In one of the debates, tickets started at $1,750 of your American dollars

ďYour American dollarsĒ. Sounds contemptuous, like a line out of a movie from a Bond villain or something. What currency are you more familiar with, rubles?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
So you're picturing something like this:

"I hate you all. You're whores. Your candidate sucks, your beliefs suck, your opinions suck, and you suck. My goal is to totally destroy you.

And then afterwards, I hope I can count on your vote in November. I'm Bernie Sanders and I approved this message."

LOL, exactly.
  #113  
Old 03-07-2020, 07:00 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Bernie did a rally in Grant Park, Chicago today on a glorious day. But why? Ok, next Saturday is when Chicago will celebrate St Patrick’s Day, a horrible day for a rally. But, Illinois doesn’t vote until March 17 and Bernie needs to be in March 10th states this weekend. It’s even better given good Midwestern weather since Bernie has abandoned the March 10th state of Mississippi and might not be viable there.
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His

Last edited by dalej42; 03-07-2020 at 07:01 PM.
  #114  
Old 03-07-2020, 07:00 PM
Kent Clark's Avatar
Kent Clark is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Posts: 27,768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
In one of the debates, tickets started at $1,750 of your American dollars, in a country where the median income is $56,516.
Gee, it's a good thing I can watch them on television for free!
  #115  
Old 03-07-2020, 07:25 PM
longhair75 is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: omaha, ne
Posts: 3,215
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrotherCadfael View Post
Chicago '68-style riots at the convention. It would kill any chance at winning the election, but it might get him the nom.
I was there last time. I am a little old for this kind of thing now.
__________________
nŪ fťidir leat canadh le gloine folamh
  #116  
Old 03-07-2020, 09:47 PM
Manwich is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Japan
Posts: 465
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kent Clark View Post
Gee, it's a good thing I can watch them on television for free!
The audience were miced and responding so it's relevant.

I feel like we are talking at cross purposes. Is it really controversial to say that the US media is pro-establishment because it is part of the establishment, owned by the wealthy and run for profit? That would be a whole other thread.

You also need to separate Sander's views from his supporters. I've compromised and moved rightwards to support Sanders who is basically a moderate candidate. Of course I want the Democratic party destroyed, they have been ineffective for years.
  #117  
Old 03-07-2020, 10:10 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
The audience were miced and responding so it's relevant.

I feel like we are talking at cross purposes. Is it really controversial to say that the US media is pro-establishment because it is part of the establishment, owned by the wealthy and run for profit? That would be a whole other thread.

You also need to separate Sander's views from his supporters. I've compromised and moved rightwards to support Sanders who is basically a moderate candidate. Of course I want the Democratic party destroyed, they have been ineffective for years.
You do realize youíre on the very far fringe, correct?
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His
  #118  
Old 03-07-2020, 10:13 PM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 19,826
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
You also need to separate Sander's views from his supporters. I've compromised and moved rightwards to support Sanders who is basically a moderate candidate. Of course I want the Democratic party destroyed, they have been ineffective for years.
Let me guess: the only way you actually "support" him is by making posts of dubious quality on the internet, right?
  #119  
Old 03-07-2020, 10:24 PM
Northern Piper is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jun 1999
Location: The snow is back, dammit!
Posts: 30,707
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
The sooner his fans can accept that and think about how to work within the framework of the Democratic party, the better our chances of getting rid of Trump.
Why would Bernie and his Bros start working for a party they donít belong to and donít support?
__________________
My great-grandparents came through emigrating to a new country.
My grandparents came through the Great War and the Great Depression.
My parents came through the Great Depression and World War II.
We will come through this pandemic. Hang on tight to the ones you love.
  #120  
Old 03-07-2020, 10:26 PM
asahi's Avatar
asahi is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 12,627
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Piper View Post
Why would Bernie and his Bros start working for a party they donít belong to and donít support?
...because the alternative is worse.

I know, I know - people typically equate democracy with "choice," as though they can select candidates from a menu.

But that's not how it was intended to function. It's typically voting for the lesser of two evils.
  #121  
Old 03-07-2020, 10:51 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
Bernie Sanders likes to attack Joe Biden for voting for the "Wall Street bailouts", meaning TARP, which he voted against. We're all damn lucky Bernie's vote didn't carry the day! These were loans, which the banks paid back with interest, and Bernie's terribly irresponsible opposition risked completely nuking the world economy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by longhair75 View Post
I was there last time. I am a little old for this kind of thing now.

I just watched Medium Cool on Blu-ray last night. Absolutely incredible stuff! I can't believe they put actors into the middle of that.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #122  
Old 03-07-2020, 11:51 PM
Little Nemo is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Western New York
Posts: 85,185
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
ďYour American dollarsĒ. Sounds contemptuous, like a line out of a movie from a Bond villain or something. What currency are you more familiar with, rubles?
According to his profile, Manwich is posting from Japan.
  #123  
Old 03-08-2020, 12:09 AM
Alessan's Avatar
Alessan is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Tel Aviv
Posts: 25,365
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
"Bernie bros" remember?
What about them?
  #124  
Old 03-08-2020, 12:16 AM
Chisquirrel is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 2,943
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Piper View Post
Why would Bernie and his Bros start working for a party they donít belong to and donít support?
Why would Bernie and his Bros a party start working allowing for a party Bernie and his Bros, they donít belong to and donít support the party?
  #125  
Old 03-08-2020, 01:50 AM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
Sooo...Bernie's new advisor is a conspiracy nutter who has repeatedly made disparaging remarks about Michelle Obama's appearance. Nice.

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...103286272?s=20

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...263119360?s=20
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc

Last edited by SlackerInc; 03-08-2020 at 01:50 AM.
  #126  
Old 03-08-2020, 01:51 AM
erysichthon's Avatar
erysichthon is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,701
Quote:
Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
According to his profile, Manwich is posting from Japan.
Japan? Maybe he's posting from his secret volcano base there.
  #127  
Old 03-08-2020, 04:41 PM
Kent Clark's Avatar
Kent Clark is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Posts: 27,768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
Of course I want the Democratic party destroyed, they have been ineffective for years.
Manwich, this seems to be your real bottom-line position, so let's go ahead and discuss it for a little bit.

Democratic governments work best when they run in a basically centrist position. Half the country may be center-left and the other half center-right, but the general consensus is somewhere approaching the middle.

Over the last 50 years, both the Democrats and the Republicans have been dragged away from the center by the outer wings of the parties. They only thing it's accomplished is a desperate attempt by each party to undo what the other one does.

Hyperbolic statements like "I want the Democratic party destroyed" are fun to type, but in the real world, they're a straight path to four more years of Donald Trump. Sure, you can hope that the Democrats go the way of the Whigs, but you'd better have something more than a frustrated solcialist from Vermont to replace it.

There are plenty of choices for voters. In 2016 there were a total of 25 political parties who ran candidates for President. 23 of them combined for a total of 7.8 million votes - one million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton received in just the state of California. Centrism works.
  #128  
Old 03-08-2020, 07:08 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,261
not sure if Biden got sick or even died that Sanders would be picked. I could see them going with Warren instead.
  #129  
Old 03-08-2020, 07:13 PM
ShadowFacts is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 3,285
According to the 538 primary forecast, things have gotten even worse for Sanders polling-wise in the last few days. For example, he had been up in Michigan until recently, but now Biden is the favorite there. If Bernie can't take Michigan and get some momentum swinging his way, he is in serious trouble, because right now everything is snowballing toward Biden.
  #130  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:08 AM
Fenris's Avatar
Fenris is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Posts: 13,298
Never mind

Last edited by Fenris; 03-09-2020 at 11:12 AM. Reason: Never mind
  #131  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:10 AM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 19,826
Latinos in Texas don't give a shit about Castro, so you're thinking wrong.
  #132  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:12 AM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 19,826
DP

Last edited by CarnalK; 03-09-2020 at 11:14 AM.
  #133  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:30 AM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
Sooo...Bernie's new advisor is a conspiracy nutter who has repeatedly made disparaging remarks about Michelle Obama's appearance. Nice.

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...103286272?s=20

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...263119360?s=20
Which is why I do blame Bernie for the actions of his Bros. I have said repeatedly that a candidate isnít responsible for some random raving nut job on Twitter, but when the campaign is staffed with trolls, that is a reason to blame them
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His
  #134  
Old 03-09-2020, 11:59 AM
QuickSilver's Avatar
QuickSilver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 20,804
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
Sooo...Bernie's new advisor is a conspiracy nutter who has repeatedly made disparaging remarks about Michelle Obama's appearance. Nice.

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...103286272?s=20

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/stat...263119360?s=20
Anybody on Sander's staff could have googled this guy to find this. Either they didn't, which is incompetent, or they did and rolled with him anyway, which is stupid.

I smell the flop sweat of desperation, Bernie.
__________________
St. QuickSilver: Patron Saint of Thermometers.
  #135  
Old 03-09-2020, 12:59 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,261
Sanders reminds me of a line from Robert the Bruce in Braveheart - "Now it's just rage" Sanders is getting close to that point where he has no chance to win but keeps on raging. If he did not quit early last time I doubt he quits early this time.
  #136  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:08 PM
DrDeth is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,967
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chisquirrel View Post
Get his supporters off of Facebook, Reddit, and Twitter and into the voting booths.

He has significant leads in every demographic under 45, which combine to over 55% of the electorate. Unfortunately for Sanders, those same demographics are showing up at less than half the rate of Biden's supporters. If they actually SHOW UP, he has an uphill, but viable, path. If they continue to sit at home and rage at the unfairness of other people voicing their opinion, then he losing yet again to a "milquetoast Republican-lite".
Yes, this is it.

Needs the young voters actually...voting.

What I love is that after raging at the unfairness of the DNC, they now want the DNC to "step in" and pick Bernie.

Telling them over and over again that the DNC has little power in this, that it's the voters doesnt seem to sink in.
  #137  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:12 PM
DrDeth is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,967
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
Indeed. I've been following the NPR Delegate Tracker pretty closely. At the moment they have Biden up 595-528 with 144 California delegates unallocated. Biden's lead could certainly shrink to nearly nothing, but the map becomes a lot unfriendlier to Bernie in the weeks ahead. MI and WA may be his best chances among sizeable states, but I don't see a blowout for him anywhere with huge delegate hauls. On the other hand, I can totally see Biden running up the score in PA, GA, FL, MD, NJ, and a few others.
Total is now 664- 573, pretty close.

Except you forget Bloomberg's and Petes nearly 100 delegates to Biden.

Now if Warren throws her's to Bernie....

Last edited by DrDeth; 03-09-2020 at 01:13 PM.
  #138  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:14 PM
Jophiel's Avatar
Jophiel is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 1999
Location: Chicago suburbia
Posts: 19,855
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShadowFacts View Post
According to the 538 primary forecast, things have gotten even worse for Sanders polling-wise in the last few days. For example, he had been up in Michigan until recently, but now Biden is the favorite there. If Bernie can't take Michigan and get some momentum swinging his way, he is in serious trouble, because right now everything is snowballing toward Biden.
A second poll (Monmouth) has just come out giving Biden a 51-36 lead in Michigan. Good chance the coffin nail will be driven in tomorrow. Exceptional youth turnout hasn't materialized so, without the claim to extra Upper Midwest support, what's left?
  #139  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:16 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,261
after next Tues there are only a few big states left to vote. NY, NJ , Penn are the main 3. the rest are smaller states or territories. Unless Sanders does well this week and next that is about it for his chances.
  #140  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:17 PM
DrDeth is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,967
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manwich View Post
..

Sanders should talk facts about Biden's record on Social Security, ..s.
You mean constantly and totally supporting SocSec and wanting a increase?

Biden has always supported Socsec, anything else is a total fabrication.
  #141  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:28 PM
BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 22,231
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Total is now 664- 573, pretty close.

Except you forget Bloomberg's and Petes nearly 100 delegates to Biden.

Now if Warren throws her's to Bernie....
I didn't just because I'm not positive that the delegates pledged to dropout candidates necessarily are bound to vote as their candidate wants them to.

I think by this time in 2 days the math is going to be prohibitively in favor of Biden.
  #142  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:37 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
after next Tues there are only a few big states left to vote. NY, NJ , Penn are the main 3. the rest are smaller states or territories. Unless Sanders does well this week and next that is about it for his chances.
And he lost all 3 of those in 2016.
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His
  #143  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:42 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
Sanders reminds me of a line from Robert the Bruce in Braveheart - "Now it's just rage" Sanders is getting close to that point where he has no chance to win but keeps on raging. If he did not quit early last time I doubt he quits early this time.
I can only hope that the magic email list finally fails to be a money machine. Bernie has his fanatics, but thereís got to be some of them thatíll realize itís over and stop donating.
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His
  #144  
Old 03-09-2020, 01:52 PM
Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 11,261
the probably with fanatics is they really hate to give up. Extreme example was Japanese soldiers in WW 2. On some islands like Iwo Jima pretty much every Japanese solider was killed. I think the only ones who survived were injured but some of those killed themselves.
  #145  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:02 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
It's dead, Jim.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #146  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:08 PM
galen ubal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Central VIC Australia
Posts: 2,919
538's take on Sander's chances.
Basically, not good;
Quote:
So letís get more creative in helping Sanders. Letís say Sanders beats his projections by 10 points tonight Ö except in Michigan, where he beats the forecast by 24 points and narrowly wins the state! (Hey, it happened in 2016!) As a result, Sanders gets a big bounce in the remaining contests over the next two weeks, beating our projections by 20 percentage points in all of them, except in Florida and Arizona where the presence of a large amount of early voting curbs his gains to 15 points. Hereís what that scenario looks like:

Scenario 3: Sanders wins Michigan (!) and surges (!)
Delegate projections with anywhere from a net of 10 to 24 percentage points* added to Sandersís projected vote share, according to FiveThirtyEightís forecast as of 9:00 a.m. Eastern on March 10

<<snip out a table>>

Even with this massive overperformance, Sanders would Ö still be losing ground to Biden! Heíd lose a net of nine delegates tonight and then another 94 in the rest of the states through Georgia, putting him 183 delegates behind Biden after March 24.

Sanders would then need to win 61 percent of the remaining delegates after Georgia to eventually claim a majority of pledged delegates, or 57 percent of them for a plurality. Also, note that even in this massive surge scenario, Sanders might not actually win all that many states, because Bidenís lead exceeds 20 points in states like Florida, Georgia and Ohio, which would give him enough of a buffer to withstand a 20-point Sanders surge.
It's not done, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on Sanders.
  #147  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:19 PM
Kolak of Twilo's Avatar
Kolak of Twilo is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Edgewater/Chicago
Posts: 4,050
NM

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 03-10-2020 at 08:21 PM.
  #148  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:14 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
Quote:
Originally Posted by galen ubal View Post
538's take on Sander's chances.
Basically, not good;
It's not done, but if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on Sanders.

You realize that even the scenario you quoted required Bernie to do a whole lot better tonight than he in fact did?
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #149  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:23 PM
galen ubal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Central VIC Australia
Posts: 2,919
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
You realize that even the scenario you quoted required Bernie to do a whole lot better tonight than he in fact did?
I do - I wrote that up and posted it just before I saw that Michigan was called for Biden.
As of right now, Sanders' chances are a lot worse, about like the first scenario in the above-linked article.

Last edited by galen ubal; 03-10-2020 at 09:24 PM.
  #150  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:52 PM
Whack-a-Mole's Avatar
Whack-a-Mole is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Chicago, IL USA
Posts: 21,325
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Ah, yes, the same old Bernie Bro nonsense of calling everyone who isnít Bernie a Republican. A million dollar bottle of champagne wonít taste as sweet as the tears of the Bros when Biden kicks Bernieís ass through the rest of the primary season.
I honestly do not know whose side you are on.
__________________
"I did not mean that Conservatives are generally stupid; I meant, that stupid persons are generally Conservative. I believe that to be so obvious and undeniable a fact that I hardly think any hon. Gentleman will question it." ~John Stuart Mill
Closed Thread

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:08 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017