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  #51  
Old 03-10-2020, 06:24 PM
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On NPR I heard it called Big Tuesday.
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Old 03-10-2020, 06:53 PM
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Anyone have a catchy name to call today? Obviously Super Tuesday is already taken. I've heard it being casually referred to as Mini Tuesday, but that makes it sound like it's smaller than your normal Tuesday.
Duper Tuesday?
  #53  
Old 03-10-2020, 06:55 PM
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Biden vs Bernie.

About ready to get this started.

I'll let big John McCarthy do the honors:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w12_RO_GSak
  #54  
Old 03-10-2020, 07:13 PM
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Interesting that Bernie went home to Vermont tonight.
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Old 03-10-2020, 07:16 PM
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FiveThirtyEight's live feed here.
The AP has called for Biden in Mississippi* and Missouri; the networks haven't called MO yet.

*I just wanted to type that out.
  #56  
Old 03-10-2020, 07:18 PM
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MSNBC just called Missouri for Biden, at present 47% to 15%.
  #57  
Old 03-10-2020, 07:48 PM
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On NPR I heard it called Big Tuesday.
Well, if last week was Super Tuesday, this must be 'Sidekick" Tuesday...

Not really concerned with the results tonight (interested in Washington, maybe, to see if the results from last week carves into Sander's support out there), more interested in the debate on the 15th in Phoenix, two days before Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio vote (total 577 delegates at stake there versus only 352 tonight). If Biden performs to expectations tonight, then Sanders will need something special at the debate to try and take at least one (and possibly two) of the big states or he risks the dreaded "not really viable" tag. And with Biden holding the South so far and Illinois being pretty much a 'machine' state yet, I see only Ohio in-play.

Likely to be a real testy debate, IMHO. Might make or break things for the Dems.

We shall see.
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  #58  
Old 03-10-2020, 07:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Defensive Indifference View Post
I think in the Midwest we call it "Not Bad Tuesday"...
I'm trying out a Justice League theme: the big three would be Super Tuesday, Bat Tuesday, Wonder Tuesday.

(And some tiny Pacific island could call their primary Aqua Tuesday)



By the way, I join the ranks of Those Who Wish They Could Be Voting For Pete or Liz (but'll happily vote for Biden).
  #59  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:02 PM
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Turn out the lights,
The party's over,
They say that all,
Good things must end
  #60  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:10 PM
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Michigan called for Bernie, various networks and the AP

GAH! I meant Biden, of course! Thanks, ISiddiqui!

Last edited by galen ubal; 03-10-2020 at 08:12 PM.
  #61  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:11 PM
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Michigan called for Bernie, various networks and the AP
Biden, not Bernie

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  #62  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:11 PM
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Michigan called for Biden by AP.
  #63  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:13 PM
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Iinteresting how the demographics of Sanders ‘16-Biden ‘20 voters in Michigan — rural and other working-class whites, especially men — bodes well for November, but also suggests misogyny played an important role in Hillary’s loss in the purple states that mattered.
  #64  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:17 PM
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Something sure did, but is that it? Dunno. Said it before, many times, that I just plain don't like her. Voted for her, because, well.... This may be projection, but seems to me that got some substance today:

Biden would have beat Trump. Well, shit.....
  #65  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:20 PM
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According to the anti-fracking site linked below (PDF), since 2005 about 138,000 wells have used fracking. Of those, MS boasted 103, MI 49, and MO none.

https://environmentamerica.org/sites...rs%2520vUS.pdf

So sure, MI and MS are "active" and Texas is "active".
This is like how like I'm "sexually active" and so is Dani Daniels.

About 8,200 wells were fracked in ND in that time period, so you got one acorn there. A small acorn.

You looked at a high level, qualitative representation of data, saw that three states were "active", misidentified a fourth state, and claimed that all four states hotbeds of fracking.

Good work. Really first rate posting.
  #66  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:31 PM
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With these results, is there any realistic way that Bernie can still get the nominiation?
I see that 538 has him at 0.1%?
  #67  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:44 PM
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Assuming Biden doesn't die or become incapacitated, there's no realistic way. And even then, I think the party would manage to nominate someone else (I'd sure hope so anyway).
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  #68  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:55 PM
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Unsubstantiated Twitter rumors say Bernie is flying to Vermont.
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  #69  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:00 PM
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Assuming Biden doesn't die or become incapacitated, there's no realistic way. And even then, I think the party would manage to nominate someone else (I'd sure hope so anyway).
Given the primary voters clearly stated preference, I would be sorely disappointed with Bernie if he capitalized on a Biden disqualification to try and hijack the nomination. The people lead, the leaders follow.
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:04 PM
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Unsubstantiated Twitter rumors say Bernie is flying to Vermont.
His and Biden's election night rallies have been cancelled, presumably due to the coronavirus. Even if he is flying back to VT, it could be just for a day of R&R and not necessarily because he is quitting.
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:04 PM
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According to the anti-fracking site linked below (PDF), since 2005 about 138,000 wells have used fracking. Of those, MS boasted 103, MI 49, and MO none.

https://environmentamerica.org/sites...rs%2520vUS.pdf

So sure, MI and MS are "active" and Texas is "active".
This is like how like I'm "sexually active" and so is Dani Daniels.

About 8,200 wells were fracked in ND in that time period, so you got one acorn there. A small acorn.

You looked at a high level, qualitative representation of data, saw that three states were "active", misidentified a fourth state, and claimed that all four states hotbeds of fracking.

Good work. Really first rate posting.
Corrected link: https://environmentamerica.org/sites...bers%20vUS.pdf
  #72  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:21 PM
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As far as the establishment's thumb on the scales, my sole point of evidence is that it seemed incredible for Klobuchar and Buttegieg, and to a lesser extent the Billionaire Boys, to back out between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. If one or two had come following SC, and then the others AFTER Super Tuesday, I wouldn't call behind-the-scenes shenanigans. It may be all "rules of the game," as you say, but it's bad optics. I mean, it's not like anybody thinks DNC actually wants Sanders to win, is it? And they have a sterling example in Trump of what happens to a party when the weirdo outsider gets the nod, so I don't blame them for doing everything they can do prevent it from happening to them. But as a voter, I'd rather they didn't.
Sorry, Dr D, I just see normal politicking. Biden wins a blow-out on the Saturday night. Pete and Klobuchar see it's game over. What do they do next?

They could just fold their tents and go home, not endorsing anyone. But they're both politicians (and I mean that in a complimentary way). They've entered the race to make a difference, and they've just spent over a year of their lives to get their message out there.

Now, they have to make a decision: should they support anyone? Well, lots of things go into that calculation. Which of the two remaining ones have policies closest to mine? Which do I trust more? Who has the best chance of beating Trump? Who will do the better job as Prez, if elected?

And they've got only 48 hours to do it, if they want to have any further impact on the race, because after Super Tuesday, Pete goes back to being "Pete Who?", and Klobuchar goes back to being one Senator out of 100.

So if they're going to drop and endorse, the time line of the primaries says to do it right away.

After all, when we used to have real-live conventions in Canada and the bottom ballot got eliminated, there was always pressure to endorse someone still in the race. They had to decide before the next round of balloting. That wasn't unseemly. That's what the logic of the voting timeline dictated.

To put it another way: if Pete and Amy are both convinced that if they're out, Joe is the best candidate and Bernie would be crushed by Trump, don't they owe it to themselves and their supporters to make their thoughts known? If they truly believe Bernie would be a disaster for the Dems and the country, wouldn't it be "unseemly" not to use their last bit of capital to back Joe?
  #73  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:24 PM
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His and Biden's election night rallies have been cancelled, presumably due to the coronavirus. Even if he is flying back to VT, it could be just for a day of R&R and not necessarily because he is quitting.
That is very true, it’s also true that Bernie thrives on the big rally. The rally very may well have been canceled over corona paranoia, it may also be because even Bernie realizes it’s over
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  #74  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:31 PM
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That is very true, it’s also true that Bernie thrives on the big rally. The rally very may well have been canceled over corona paranoia, it may also be because even Bernie realizes it’s over
I just heard on Fox News (I know, I know) that Bernie has cancelled all of his appearances this week due to the coronavirus.

ETA: Also Biden cancelled his rally as well.

Last edited by UltraVires; 03-10-2020 at 09:32 PM.
  #75  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:33 PM
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Yang just endorsed Biden.
  #76  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:37 PM
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Bernie not speaking tonight says a lot.
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  #77  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:39 PM
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Unsubstantiated Twitter rumors say Bernie is flying to Vermont.
Post 56.

Campaign folks found it odd. From a senior Sanders aid, just reported that Sanders will not be speaking tonight and that they, the campaign, understand tonight was a big loss for Sanders.

ETA: And then you ninja'd me about Sanders not speaking tonight, dalej42! <shaking fist!>

Last edited by Aspenglow; 03-10-2020 at 09:40 PM.
  #78  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:41 PM
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This'll be an interesting campaign if the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the spring, summer and fall.

Trump especially enjoys the big rallies, and has built his maga brand around them. Will be interesting to see if his fear of germs trumps his love of the adoring crowds.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 03-10-2020 at 09:42 PM.
  #79  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:57 PM
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I'm watching Biden speak right now from Philly. Heartfelt and well spoken with passion and no flubs (yet).

I'm sure those who want to spin the "Biden has dementia" angle will ignore it.
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Old 03-10-2020, 09:58 PM
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Biden's speaking to his campaign workers right now. He isn't yelling and isn't rambling (much.) I suppose someone will complain he's disengaged and not really with it.

ETA: Kolak's observation

Last edited by Kent Clark; 03-10-2020 at 09:59 PM.
  #81  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:58 PM
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I'm watching Biden speak right now from Philly. Heartfelt and well spoken with passion and no flubs (yet).

I'm sure those who want to spin the "Biden has dementia" angle will ignore it.
He's beginning to relax. And he can finally speak at the pace that favors him, not the one that aggravates his stutter.

He sounds great.
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:03 PM
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DNC states that there will be no live audience at the debate Sunday due to..yes..the coronavirus.
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:04 PM
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I have more than a sneaking suspicion there is not going to be a debate on Sunday.
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:05 PM
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This'll be an interesting campaign if the coronavirus continues to spread throughout the spring, summer and fall.

Trump especially enjoys the big rallies, and has built his maga brand around them. Will be interesting to see if his fear of germs trumps his love of the adoring crowds.
Rahm Emanuel said essentially that Trump will go nuts if deprived of his mass adulation rallies. Can you imagine what being a White House staffer would be like if Trump is forced to stay there all the time?

For me, the big news tonight is not so much that Biden won in Michigan, since that was expected. Not expected was that youth voting declined from 19% in 2016 to 15% this year. That's been the pattern pretty much everywhere since Iowa. If Sanders can't get youth to vote in a year when he is the only progressive candidate on the ballot, then he doesn't deserve to be within miles of the nomination.

I think he knows that. If Bernie doesn't bow out quickly, tomorrow preferably but definitely after losing in the big states next week, he'll be relegated to a party-destroying idiot with a Trump-voter-stupid fanbase.

Then gather all the Democrats together with one message and all the money and names supporting one candidate to defeat Trump. That's the closest-to-ideal outcome and the party should feel incredibly lucky to have it happen as early as March, especially at a time when Trump is taking a pounding.
  #85  
Old 03-10-2020, 10:06 PM
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I have more than a sneaking suspicion there is not going to be a debate on Sunday.
Because of coronavirus fears or because you think Bernie will drop out?
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:14 PM
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Because of coronavirus fears or because you think Bernie will drop out?
I think Bernie will suspend. He does not wish to be even the hint of the spoiler for this election. I think he is troubled by the Russian interference and the nasty tone of some of his supporters. I don't think he wants to see these things rage out of control due to him overstaying his welcome in the party.

And you have to admit, if my theory that some of Bernie's "small donor" money comes in fact from Russia, there is some poetic justice to it being passed from Sanders to Biden, to work to further Biden's campaign against Trump.

At least, that's how I hope it goes. Bernie no longer has any reasonable path to the nomination. It would be for the best for him to step aside. I think he knows that.
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:24 PM
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Also, campaigns are expensive. If you're a politician with a war chest that suddenly looks like a dwindling checking account with little coming in, you might want to throw in the towel so has to have a rainy day fund as opposed to being bankrupt. Jus' sayin'
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Old 03-10-2020, 10:35 PM
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Also, campaigns are expensive. If you're a politician with a war chest that suddenly looks like a dwindling checking account with little coming in, you might want to throw in the towel so has to have a rainy day fund as opposed to being bankrupt. Jus' sayin'
A rainy day fund for what? You can't just use the money for whatever you want. Bernie is 78. It's now or never. What will he use it for?
  #89  
Old 03-10-2020, 11:34 PM
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A rainy day fund for what? You can't just use the money for whatever you want. Bernie is 78. It's now or never. What will he use it for?
My understanding is no - you can't use campaign donations for whatever you want. You can use it to campaign or donate it to another campaign.

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Old 03-10-2020, 11:45 PM
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I think Bernie will suspend. He does not wish to be even the hint of the spoiler for this election. I think he is troubled by the Russian interference and the nasty tone of some of his supporters. I don't think he wants to see these things rage out of control due to him overstaying his welcome in the party.

And you have to admit, if my theory that some of Bernie's "small donor" money comes in fact from Russia, there is some poetic justice to it being passed from Sanders to Biden, to work to further Biden's campaign against Trump.

At least, that's how I hope it goes. Bernie no longer has any reasonable path to the nomination. It would be for the best for him to step aside. I think he knows that.
I'm nowhere near convinced this is how things play out but I hope you are correct. I also hope, if this happens, he actually lets his followers know it is time to give it up and do all they can to get DJT out of the WH.

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 03-10-2020 at 11:46 PM.
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Old 03-11-2020, 01:32 AM
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Unfortunately, I suspect he may stay in longer than he really should--but I will be very glad to be proven wrong.
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Old 03-11-2020, 01:52 AM
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As a Bernie supporter I’m obviously hugely disappointed. I was never 100% sure that Bernie could beat Trump, but I am, to put it mildly, extremely skeptical of Joe Biden’s chances.

It’s depressing. I’m genuinely worried that, by nominating Joe Biden (and I can’t see a viable path for Bernie at this point), America has guaranteed the world four more years of Donald Trump. And when Trump wins you’ll all blame it on racism, or “Bernie Bros”, or Putin, or any one of a hundred other red herrings, instead of placing the blame where it belongs: on Biden for being a pitifully weak candidate, and on yourselves for playing it safe and choosing Biden on the elitist assumption that the rest of the country was too unevolved to pick anybody else.

I really, really hope I’m wrong. I really wish that on November 9th I can come back and be all like “Sorry everyone! You were right and I was wrong. Never should’ve doubted you” etc... But I really don’t think that’ll happen. I think what’ll happen is that Donald Trump will flatten Joe Biden like a steamroller.

When Joe calls him corrupt, Trump’ll point to Hunter and his nepotistic £50k a month do nothing no-show job. When Joe calls him sexist, Trump’ll point to any one of the thousand skin crawling “Creepy Uncle Joe” video compilations floating round YouTube. When Joe calls him racist, Trump’ll point to Biden’s opposition to busing and support for the now hated Clinton crime bill. When Joe questions Trump’s abilities, Trump’ll just call him “Sleepy Joe” and point to his ever-growing list of embarrassing mental slip-ups. When Joe question’s Trump’s judgement, Trump’ll point to Joe’s support for the disastrous Iraq war, and Joe’s long history of advocating cuts to Social Security and Medicare. And when the two of them debate?!. Fuck...Joe couldn’t even handle what his fellow Democrats threw at him. Watching him go up against Trump is going to be stomach turning.

Bernie hasn’t finagled any fake jobs for his relatives. Bernie hasn’t got a history of inappropriately touching women and little girls. Bernie protested segregation. Bernie’s mental faculties are still sharp. Bernie voted against Iraq. Bernie would never dream of cutting Social Security or Medicare. And, unlike Joe, Bernie is a strong debater. Again, not saying he definitely would’ve won, but unlike Joe he could’ve credibly attacked Trump where he’s weak.

I really, really hope all you Biden fans out there have made the right call. But if Biden loses it’s on you.
  #93  
Old 03-11-2020, 02:36 AM
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You've read my mind Unreconstructed Man.

I really, really hope Joe can pull this off, but I fear we're in for 4 more years of Trump.

I'll be voting for Biden, and I'll be encouraging my friends and family to do so too. Don't think it's going to matter though.

Oh well. 254 years was a pretty good run for a country, right?
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Old 03-11-2020, 02:47 AM
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On the bright side, if I'm reading the numbers right, turnout is way, way up from 2016.
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Old 03-11-2020, 05:05 AM
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A rainy day fund for what? You can't just use the money for whatever you want. Bernie is 78. It's now or never. What will he use it for?
Supporting progressive candidates in downticket and local elections to help the progressive movement grow in power and influence, to be hasten the day it is the mainstream.

Seriously. His supporters, and one presumes they support the ideas more than him, are more numerous but in a demographic of lower turnout. Still they vote more often at their ages than the generation before them did and they have every expectation of having higher turnout as they become the next older demographic. Their views probably won’t change much. Their power will grow.
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Old 03-11-2020, 07:37 AM
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Supporting progressive candidates in downticket and local elections to help the progressive movement grow in power and influence, to be hasten the day it is the mainstream.

Seriously. His supporters, and one presumes they support the ideas more than him, are more numerous but in a demographic of lower turnout. Still they vote more often at their ages than the generation before them did and they have every expectation of having higher turnout as they become the next older demographic. Their views probably won’t change much. Their power will grow.
Yes. Progressives will have to grow the reboot of the system from down up, and it will likely be for the better. Sure, it helps a ton and is faster when a charismatic standard-bearer ascends to the very top first and then pulls others along (but BTW whoever it is needs to pull others along willingly... not threaten that if they don't follow he'll punish them), but you can really cement your agenda by building it from the ground. Look at the Contract With America/Tea Party -- we may have bemoaned and ridiculed them but they kept the ascendancy of the Hard Right into power in all branches at all levels going, even (sometimes especially) when out of the White House.

Last edited by JRDelirious; 03-11-2020 at 07:38 AM.
  #97  
Old 03-11-2020, 07:41 AM
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Some calming words for the progressives from AOC.
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Old 03-11-2020, 07:53 AM
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Some calming words for the progressives from AOC.
I like her more as time passes and I think she shows lots of promise as the progressive future leader of the Democratic party. Well said, AOC.
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Old 03-11-2020, 07:53 AM
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Originally Posted by orcenio View Post
Some calming words for the progressives from AOC.
What an excellent example of why I like AOC so much. I hope the folks who don't like her will watch this.
  #100  
Old 03-11-2020, 07:56 AM
Shalmanese is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by orcenio View Post
Some calming words for the progressives from AOC.
She needs to stop touching her face! The American Strategic AOC/RBG Reserve CANNOT BE COMPROMISED!
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