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  #101  
Old 03-11-2020, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
As a Bernie supporter Iím obviously hugely disappointed. I was never 100% sure that Bernie could beat Trump, but I am, to put it mildly, extremely skeptical of Joe Bidenís chances.

Itís depressing. Iím genuinely worried that, by nominating Joe Biden (and I canít see a viable path for Bernie at this point), America has guaranteed the world four more years of Donald Trump. And when Trump wins youíll all blame it on racism, or ďBernie BrosĒ, or Putin, or any one of a hundred other red herrings, instead of placing the blame where it belongs: on Biden for being a pitifully weak candidate, and on yourselves for playing it safe and choosing Biden on the elitist assumption that the rest of the country was too unevolved to pick anybody else.

...
I understand, but I do think too much of this country is too unevolved to elect Sanders. Biden seems to me our best (remaining) hope to beat Trump. He wasn't high on my list of people I'd like to see as the next POTUS, but I'll do all I can to see that he wins this thing.
  #102  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:45 AM
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As a Bernie supporter Iím obviously hugely disappointed. I was never 100% sure that Bernie could beat Trump, but I am, to put it mildly, extremely skeptical of Joe Bidenís chances.
I was a Booker/Pete/Warren supporter, and was similarly worried that Biden was just too uncharismatic to beat Trump. One thing that significantly boosted my optimism was the comparison of the results in Michigan (and remember, only a few states really matter, Michigan is definitely one of them) between 2016 and 2020. All of these rustbelt counties went for Bernie over Hillary in 2016, and then went for Biden over Bernie in 2020. And she lost Michigan by 10K votes. All a candidate has to do is do as well as Hillary did, plus a teeny bit, in Michigan, and similarly in a few other states, and, bam, white house.
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  #103  
Old 03-11-2020, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by MaxTheVool View Post
I was a Booker/Pete/Warren supporter, and was similarly worried that Biden was just too uncharismatic to beat Trump. One thing that significantly boosted my optimism was the comparison of the results in Michigan (and remember, only a few states really matter, Michigan is definitely one of them) between 2016 and 2020. All of these rustbelt counties went for Bernie over Hillary in 2016, and then went for Biden over Bernie in 2020. And she lost Michigan by 10K votes. All a candidate has to do is do as well as Hillary did, plus a teeny bit, in Michigan, and similarly in a few other states, and, bam, white house.
Right. Biden seems to be much better than Hillary Clinton in the rural white working class - whereas Sanders won those in the primary in 2016, Biden is winning them this year. All we need is a little bit better showing in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and I think Biden gives that (he definitely seems more popular in Michigan than Sanders this go around).
  #104  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:09 AM
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I have more than a sneaking suspicion there is not going to be a debate on Sunday.
I think the debate happens, if for no other reason than to cancel it sends the message to Bernie's supporters that their cause is lost for 2020, which will probably drive a lot of them to not vote for Biden (and who knows how many of them not to vote at all, possibly depriving progressive candidates of House or maybe even Senate seats - then again, how many progressives have won Democratic Senate primaries in 2020, anyway?), which is just asking to re-elect Trump.

Besides, it gives Bernie a chance to make one final nationwide case to his supporters to vote for Biden - and vote progressives for Congress. People seem to forget that the Representatives and Senators of the party in the White House are not merely a rubber stamp - otherwise, for example, the ACA would have been "repealed & replaced" by now as McCain, Collins, and Murkowski wouldn't have voted against it - and a "progressive" Congress can pass whatever budget it wants and put it on the President's desk.
  #105  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:25 AM
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All of these rustbelt counties went for Bernie over Hillary in 2016, and then went for Biden over Bernie in 2020. And she lost Michigan by 10K votes. All a candidate has to do is do as well as Hillary did, plus a teeny bit, in Michigan, and similarly in a few other states, and, bam, white house.
It sounds like turnout was exceptionally high in the suburbs as well which is the same thing we saw in 2018 when Democrats retook the House. It's encouraging to think that a lot of these same voters are still involved and enthusiastic.
  #106  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:30 AM
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I'm nowhere near convinced this is how things play out but I hope you are correct. I also hope, if this happens, he actually lets his followers know it is time to give it up and do all they can to get DJT out of the WH.
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I think the debate happens, if for no other reason than to cancel it sends the message to Bernie's supporters that their cause is lost for 2020, which will probably drive a lot of them to not vote for Biden (and who knows how many of them not to vote at all, possibly depriving progressive candidates of House or maybe even Senate seats - then again, how many progressives have won Democratic Senate primaries in 2020, anyway?), which is just asking to re-elect Trump.

Besides, it gives Bernie a chance to make one final nationwide case to his supporters to vote for Biden - and vote progressives for Congress. People seem to forget that the Representatives and Senators of the party in the White House are not merely a rubber stamp - otherwise, for example, the ACA would have been "repealed & replaced" by now as McCain, Collins, and Murkowski wouldn't have voted against it - and a "progressive" Congress can pass whatever budget it wants and put it on the President's desk.
After having slept on it, I agree with That Don Guy and all he posted. I think this is the week Sanders accepts the inevitable, but he does want the debate as a way of putting an exclamation point at the end of his campaign. (Plus I already learned via the news that Bernie intends to attend the debate.)

As he said, I just hope he uses the opportunity to not simply point out the differences between his agenda and Biden's, but also the similarities. Something that broke my heart in 2016 was learning that, during their time together in the Senate, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders voted the same 94% of the time. All those young people who stayed home and didn't vote, or who protest-voted for Trump, literally spit the dummy over a 6% disagreement in policy.

On so many metrics, Biden and Sanders just aren't that far apart.
  #107  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:42 AM
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Supporting progressive candidates in downticket and local elections to help the progressive movement grow in power and influence, to be hasten the day it is the mainstream.

Seriously. His supporters, and one presumes they support the ideas more than him, are more numerous but in a demographic of lower turnout. Still they vote more often at their ages than the generation before them did and they have every expectation of having higher turnout as they become the next older demographic. Their views probably wonít change much. Their power will grow.
I believe that the progressive movement is truly the wave of the future. There's a good parallel to the Progressive Movement of the early 20th century, which advocated for a long list of needed measures, nearly all of which came to pass.

But it took more than three decades and an overwhelming Democratic victory in 1932 for the agenda to move through Congress. You're fooling yourselves if you think it can be done with a single presidential election. FDR was the people's candidate, not an outlier in the party. And he straightforwardly lied to the public about what his plans were during his campaign.

Generational change takes a generation. Keep that in mind while you keep pushing for incremental change year by year.
  #108  
Old 03-11-2020, 10:52 AM
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What an excellent example of why I like AOC so much. I hope the folks who don't like her will watch this.
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She needs to stop touching her face! The American Strategic AOC/RBG Reserve CANNOT BE COMPROMISED!
She made important points to her followers and the statement is a powerful one.

As a Biden supporter who supports M4A, climate change as Priority One, getting big money out of politics and shifting the wealth of this country to a much more fair distribution, I am grateful she pointed out why people like me are supporting Biden this time around over Bernie.

As a party, we have got to pull together.

I did want to hand her a scrunchie for her hair.
  #109  
Old 03-11-2020, 11:05 AM
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Amusingly there are Bernie fans on Twitter who are blaming this loss on AOC because she made Bernie's campaign "too woke" and therefore ruined his rapport with the white working class. As opposed to perhaps acknowledging that maybe a good portion of that white working class base was just anti-Hillary as opposed to pro-Bernie.

I do like AOC quite a bit though. I think she's a far better politician than Bernie Sanders is. But she may be too much of a lightening rod to so something nationally (aside from say Speaker of the House or Senate leadership).
  #110  
Old 03-11-2020, 11:19 AM
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,,,,As opposed to perhaps acknowledging that maybe a good portion of that white working class base was just anti-Hillary as opposed to pro-Bernie.....
Analysis of the voting patterns seems to bolster this idea. I can relate, I really don't like Hillary, but not for any substantial reason. I'm way to the left of her, but so what? Voted for her because of the, ah, "alternative". Maybe its some form of "likeability"? Dunno, but it sure would explain a lot.
  #111  
Old 03-11-2020, 12:06 PM
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Iinteresting how the demographics of Sanders Ď16-Biden Ď20 voters in Michigan ó rural and other working-class whites, especially men ó bodes well for November, but also suggests misogyny played an important role in Hillaryís loss in the purple states that mattered.
I'm not sure if you can really just boil it down that way. Biden always seemed to project an image of someone that "fights for the little guy", someone that rides the train to work, is comfortable hanging out with bikers or steel mill workers, pumping his own gas, and drinking a 6 pack of bud light.

I mean, just look at all the "Diamond Joe" stuff from the Onion, back in the Obama days.

How much of this is real vs. a completely manufactured image, i don't know. And maybe this is all inherently unfair, a politician exactly like Joe Biden (but female) may have never managed to get stuck with this sort of "Diamond Joe" reputation. But Hillary Clinton certainly didn't, and i think "Diamond Joe" is exactly what an unemployed white steelworker is going to respond well to.
  #112  
Old 03-11-2020, 12:08 PM
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Amusingly there are Bernie fans on Twitter who are blaming this loss on AOC because she made Bernie's campaign "too woke" and therefore ruined his rapport with the white working class. As opposed to perhaps acknowledging that maybe a good portion of that white working class base was just anti-Hillary as opposed to pro-Bernie.

I do like AOC quite a bit though. I think she's a far better politician than Bernie Sanders is. But she may be too much of a lightening rod to so something nationally (aside from say Speaker of the House or Senate leadership).
Yeah, I see AOC as the future Nancy Pelosi complete with right wing demonization machine.
  #113  
Old 03-11-2020, 12:10 PM
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(YamatoTwinkie): True. We’ll never know to what extent simply being a woman was a factor for some number of these folks.

But, speaking as someone living in a small Midwestern city (did I mention that?), I know it was part of the package for some.

PS Those “Onions” are hilarious. This should be the template for Joe’s campaign: go see the Scorpions, feed alligators, fool around with manly vehicles...

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  #114  
Old 03-11-2020, 12:14 PM
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I hope political journalists finally realize that spending all day on Twitter to gather your perceptions of the electorate is a waste of time. The stats would show that anyway. Only 20% of Americans use Twitter and of that 20% an even smaller amount post regularly, and of that smaller amount an even smaller amount talk politics.

The problem is the professional class of media are all on there because it's instant communication for them. But Twitter's demographics tilt younger, more educated, more liberal and more affluent. It's not reflective of the party anymore than going to diners in the deep south is reflective of the Trump voter.
  #115  
Old 03-11-2020, 12:22 PM
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People seem to forget that the Representatives and Senators of the party in the White House are not merely a rubber stamp - otherwise, for example, the ACA would have been "repealed & replaced" by now as McCain, Collins, and Murkowski wouldn't have voted against it - and a "progressive" Congress can pass whatever budget it wants and put it on the President's desk.
I've tried to make this point too. If the separation between Biden and Sanders were measurable strictly one-dimensionally, I'd probably be around 75% toward the Sanders side. But even given a Senate flip and a filibuster repeal (or at least a repeal of the no-show filibuster), they aren't going to just enact the Sanders agenda. So may as well go with the candidate with the better chance in the general.
  #116  
Old 03-11-2020, 01:00 PM
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I hope political journalists finally realize that spending all day on Twitter to gather your perceptions of the electorate is a waste of time.
Who, specifically, was doing this?

My guess is no one.
  #117  
Old 03-11-2020, 03:31 PM
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I have heard/read many journalists themselves acknowledge that they are guilty of doing this, and need to try to remember "Twitter is not America".


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Originally Posted by Unreconstructed Man View Post
And when Trump wins you’ll all blame it on racism, or “Bernie Bros”, or Putin, or any one of a hundred other red herrings, instead of placing the blame where it belongs: on Biden for being a pitifully weak candidate, and on yourselves for playing it safe and choosing Biden on the elitist assumption that the rest of the country was too unevolved to pick anybody else.

No, that's not where the blame belongs. I think, just the opposite as you, that Bernie was more likely to lose to Trump. But that doesn't mean if we had nominated Bernie and he lost, that he (or his backers) would deserve blame for Trump. That actually does go on racism and people who are too unevolved to have a minimum standard of competency and decency when choosing a president.


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What an excellent example of why I like AOC so much. I hope the folks who don't like her will watch this.

I am one such person, and I watched--and all I kept thinking was "GET A FUCKING HAIR TIE, GAAHHH!"
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  #118  
Old 03-11-2020, 03:44 PM
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There are many journalists and political staff that do acknowledge their their social media bubbles can definitely be a hindrance to seeing what’s out there. In particular, I think the Warren campaign was guilty of this.

Journalists have to realize how easy it is to live in a bubble of younger, highly educated and urban people, both in real life and online. That’s their demographic. They should spend more time with that rural woman from MS (either CNN or MSNBC) last night who said ‘I don’t do the Tweety Bird.’ She has voted for Biden because she wanted to vote for Biden and that’s it. Didn’t spend hours looking at platforms or discussing if a Medicare for all plan is better than Medicare for all who want it.
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  #119  
Old 03-11-2020, 04:28 PM
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It's over. Democrats rallied behind one candidate. I suspect that Bernie will be out by the end of Spring Break.

AOC seems to be acknowledging that the millenials sneering "OK Boomer" at older folks was counterproductive.

She also seems to think that Millenial progressives are more robust in their ideology than every generation of progressives before her. Only time will tell.

Now if she would only refrain from targetting moderates.
  #120  
Old 03-11-2020, 04:50 PM
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Sanders' statement today was a masterful use of coded language. He said aloud that he's staying in the race while his subtext was that he knows he needs a miracle to get the nomination. He didn't want to drop out now because that would send his bros into sheer insanity. Instead, he's stopped attacking Biden entirely so as to give him a chance to make appeals to Sanders' base by agreeing to push some of the progressive agenda, which Sanders laid out point by point for Biden to pick and choose from.

He's laying out a course for Biden to follow so that he can concede gracefully while saying that the progressive agenda will be a part of Biden's campaign, presented by Smilin' Joe as a return to the Golden Era, not the scary future.

The odds of Biden picking up this baton and running with it are high. Bernie's out of the race as of this moment except as a spoiler. If Biden for whatever weird reason slaps him down, then Sanders will hit back hard. But I don't see that happening. They both understand the game being played. They'll mock compete on March 17 and it will be over when the returns come in.
  #121  
Old 03-11-2020, 05:07 PM
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Well put, ХАРПО — thanks for that summary.

Last edited by JKellyMap; 03-11-2020 at 05:08 PM.
  #122  
Old 03-11-2020, 05:07 PM
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I was a Booker/Pete/Warren supporter, and was similarly worried that Biden was just too uncharismatic to beat Trump. One thing that significantly boosted my optimism was the comparison of the results in Michigan (and remember, only a few states really matter, Michigan is definitely one of them) between 2016 and 2020. All of these rustbelt counties went for Bernie over Hillary in 2016, and then went for Biden over Bernie in 2020. And she lost Michigan by 10K votes. All a candidate has to do is do as well as Hillary did, plus a teeny bit, in Michigan, and similarly in a few other states, and, bam, white house.
Agreed. Hillary was a polarizing candidate but she still won 66 million votes.

Hopefully Biden does better in Midwestern states.
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  #123  
Old 03-11-2020, 05:13 PM
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Well put, ХАРПО ó thanks for that summary.
Hey, who knows more about the election than us Russian bots?
  #124  
Old 03-11-2020, 05:23 PM
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  #125  
Old 03-11-2020, 05:24 PM
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Exapno, I like your summary but I'm actually holding out hope that Bernie goes even further by doing a little kabuki dance with Biden at the debate where he gets Biden to make some "concessions", and then Bernie suspends his campaign before the voting next Tuesday (which would be likely to be humiliating for him as those are not his states, to put it mildly).
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  #126  
Old 03-12-2020, 07:32 AM
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Sanders' statement today was a masterful use of coded language. He said aloud that he's staying in the race while his subtext was that he knows he needs a miracle to get the nomination. He didn't want to drop out now because that would send his bros into sheer insanity. Instead, he's stopped attacking Biden entirely so as to give him a chance to make appeals to Sanders' base by agreeing to push some of the progressive agenda, which Sanders laid out point by point for Biden to pick and choose from.

He's laying out a course for Biden to follow so that he can concede gracefully while saying that the progressive agenda will be a part of Biden's campaign, presented by Smilin' Joe as a return to the Golden Era, not the scary future.

The odds of Biden picking up this baton and running with it are high. Bernie's out of the race as of this moment except as a spoiler. If Biden for whatever weird reason slaps him down, then Sanders will hit back hard. But I don't see that happening. They both understand the game being played. They'll mock compete on March 17 and it will be over when the returns come in.
Insh'allah.
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  #127  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:46 AM
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I don't like many of AOC's positions but I like her, I think she's good at her job, and I think she represents a big chunk of Dems who aren't represented very well by the party establishment. A chunk they need to listen to if they want to keep people engaged.
  #128  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:50 AM
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Biden has already signaled the eagerness to play it this way in his speech Tuesday night, phrasing his goals in some of Sanders’ verbiage in his unity appeal.

Progressives did not win at taking over the driver’s seat but they are consistently getting the car to move more to direction they want it to go. Now it’s getting the country to go along.
  #129  
Old 03-12-2020, 10:52 AM
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Considering recommendations to avoid public gatherings, maybe they can figure this out before a number of folks have to congregate at polling places next Tuesday?
  #130  
Old 03-12-2020, 10:52 AM
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Biden has now pulled ahead of Sanders in the SoW. While it could shift back ó at this point there are over 300,000 ballots to be counted ó the trend doesn't look good for Bernie since these ballots were more likely cast after Biden's Super Tuesday surge and the subsequent dropouts/endorsements.

Two things that surprise me: Biden's lead in King County (presumably a Sanders stronghold), and the number of Dryside counties going for Sanders. Although the latter may be due to Trump voters trying to upset Biden's bandwagon.

Stay buckled up, and remember not to fall out of the tram without coming to a full and complete stop.
  #131  
Old 03-12-2020, 11:06 AM
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<snip>

Two things that surprise me: Biden's lead in King County (presumably a Sanders stronghold), and the number of Dryside counties going for Sanders. Although the latter may be due to Trump voters trying to upset Biden's bandwagon.

Stay buckled up, and remember not to fall out of the tram without coming to a full and complete stop.
I think yours is a very astute conclusion. Does Washington have open primaries, then? I Googled it, but the results say that Washington is a "semi-open" primary state, whatever that is.

If ever there were a part of the country where crossover voting would be a thing, it's eastern Washington. It would be a thing in eastern Oregon, too, but our primaries are closed which of course makes it a little harder to do.
  #132  
Old 03-12-2020, 11:25 AM
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Washington ballots, which are sent by mail, contained both the Democratic slate and Republican slate. You had to pick one candidate from one of them (the Republican slate had only one candidate.) Separately, you had to indicate a party affiliation on the outside of the envelope itself (by checking a box.) There's no way to correlate that you selected a candidate from the party slate that you indicated on the exterior on the envelope. It wouldn't surprise me if dyed-in-the-wool Republicans selected from the Democratic slate, though whether they did so in earnest belief about the best candidate for president or in an attempt to wreak havoc, I can't be sure.
  #133  
Old 03-12-2020, 11:37 AM
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It does look like Biden will win WA and that definitely shows the difference between a primary and a caucus. Sanders would have won a landslide in a caucus, it have helped him a bit with delegates but also helped his narrative that he still ‘has a chance’
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  #134  
Old 03-12-2020, 11:38 AM
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Washington ballots, which are sent by mail, contained both the Democratic slate and Republican slate. You had to pick one candidate from one of them (the Republican slate had only one candidate.) Separately, you had to indicate a party affiliation on the outside of the envelope itself (by checking a box.) There's no way to correlate that you selected a candidate from the party slate that you indicated on the exterior on the envelope. It wouldn't surprise me if dyed-in-the-wool Republicans selected from the Democratic slate, though whether they did so in earnest belief about the best candidate for president or in an attempt to wreak havoc, I can't be sure.
Interesting. Thanks for the explanation, and allow me please to say that what I perceive to be your understatement is charming.
  #135  
Old 03-12-2020, 12:34 PM
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Washington ballots, which are sent by mail, contained both the Democratic slate and Republican slate. You had to pick one candidate from one of them (the Republican slate had only one candidate.) Separately, you had to indicate a party affiliation on the outside of the envelope itself (by checking a box.) There's no way to correlate that you selected a candidate from the party slate that you indicated on the exterior on the envelope. It wouldn't surprise me if dyed-in-the-wool Republicans selected from the Democratic slate, though whether they did so in earnest belief about the best candidate for president or in an attempt to wreak havoc, I can't be sure.
By the way, short follow up on the logistics. You put your ballot itself inside a security sleeve. Then you take that whole sleeve, and place it inside the envelope. You sign and date the envelope (for all elections), plus for this one, indicate a party. When it's received, they verify the signature and the date (and postmark). If everything checks out, your ballot is removed, in its security sleeve, and thrown in with everyone else's ballots from your precinct. Then, separately, all the ballots are removed from their sleeves, so the ballot can no longer be matched to the voter.
  #136  
Old 03-12-2020, 12:35 PM
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By the way, short follow up on the logistics. You put your ballot itself inside a security sleeve. Then you take that whole sleeve, and place it inside the envelope. You sign and date the envelope (for all elections), plus for this one, indicate a party. When it's received, they verify the signature and the date (and postmark). If everything checks out, your ballot is removed, in its security sleeve, and thrown in with everyone else's ballots from your precinct. Then, separately, all the ballots are removed from their sleeves, so the ballot can no longer be matched to the voter.
I'm skeptical that they actually do anything to verify the signature. (but what do I know?)
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Old 03-12-2020, 12:38 PM
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I've been called about a signature mismatch!
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:12 PM
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Originally Posted by OttoDaFe View Post
Biden has now pulled ahead of Sanders in the SoW.
If you were the person who lives in Adams County and voted for Michael Bennet I bet it would be kind of a strange feeling. "Look! There I am! Right there, on the Secretary of State's website!"

"Hey, Mike, it's Cousin Bob, calling from up here in Ritzville! Check out the election results website! There I am! See, I told you I'd...Well, yes, I suppose so. Yeah, sorry about that. Well, uh, better luck next time."
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  #139  
Old 03-12-2020, 02:21 PM
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Originally Posted by MEBuckner View Post
If you were the person who lives in Adams County and voted for Michael Bennet I bet it would be kind of a strange feeling. "Look! There I am! Right there, on the Secretary of State's website!"

"Hey, Mike, it's Cousin Bob, calling from up here in Ritzville! Check out the election results website! There I am! See, I told you I'd...Well, yes, I suppose so. Yeah, sorry about that. Well, uh, better luck next time."
In my 20s, I remember writing myself in for some college trustee position so I could see my name in the returns when they were listed in the paper. That's when I learned it doesn't work that way.
  #140  
Old 03-12-2020, 02:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Do Not Taunt View Post
I've been called about a signature mismatch!
I had that happen to me one time, but it was in person. For some reason, they had my high school signature on file from when I first registered. My signature has changed drastically since they, I still see my high school signature when I look at my social security card, I still have one that I got around age 18.
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  #141  
Old 03-12-2020, 02:55 PM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
I had that happen to me one time, but it was in person. For some reason, they had my high school signature on file from when I first registered. My signature has changed drastically since they, I still see my high school signature when I look at my social security card, I still have one that I got around age 18.
I think I might just have a little larger-than-normal natural variation in my signature. This was post-vote-by-mail, and they both called and emailed. I responded both ways, but never talked to a human, and never received any kind of response. I did confirm later through the King County website that my vote had been counted, though. So other than the black hole part, it was pretty smooth.
  #142  
Old 03-12-2020, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Procrustus View Post
I'm skeptical that they actually do anything to verify the signature. (but what do I know?)
Iím a Washington voter. My assumption has always been that they donít check the signature on a routine basis, but use it when there is something that leads them to suspect a problem.
  #143  
Old 03-13-2020, 03:47 AM
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I’m a Washington voter. My assumption has always been that they don’t check the signature on a routine basis, but use it when there is something that leads them to suspect a problem.

I'm sure this wouldn't happen in Washington, but in a red state I'd imagine the "something" might include hailing from a black neighborhood or having a "black-sounding" name.

ETA: I hate vote-by-mail.
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Last edited by SlackerInc; 03-13-2020 at 03:48 AM.
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