Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:46 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226

What will the party do if Biden dies or becomes incapacitated sometime before the primaries end?


Bernie supporters will of course want to say "Bernie got the most votes of anyone still in the race, so he should be the guy". But I would think (hope, anyway) that the party would be like "not so fast: voters spoke loud and clear that they want a mainstream Democrat, not Bernie the socialist".
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #2  
Old 03-10-2020, 08:57 PM
Emily Litella is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: The swamps of Jersey
Posts: 1,235
They would still have the convention in July, if there isn't a majority of delegates for Bernie and there most likely won't be, then the party will pick whoever they want.
__________________
NM
  #3  
Old 03-10-2020, 09:11 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
But what if it happened tomorrow? Couldn't Bernie potentially get a majority if he ran unopposed in the rest of the states? Seems to me the other candidates who "suspended" their campaigns would "unsuspend" and we'd quite possibly be back to a contested convention, with Bernie possibly having the plurality. IOW a mess.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #4  
Old 03-11-2020, 07:40 PM
RioRico is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
But what if it happened tomorrow? Couldn't Bernie potentially get a majority if he ran unopposed in the rest of the states?
Biden's name will still be on primary ballots, same as all those who dropped out after California ballots were printed and before the primary. Convention rules will determine how those delegates are apportioned.
  #5  
Old 03-12-2020, 01:42 AM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
You don't think anyone else would un-suspend their campaigns? I think they would.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #6  
Old 03-12-2020, 09:01 AM
digs's Avatar
digs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: West of Wauwatosa
Posts: 10,731
Yes, I wish there was a way to have... I believe the legal term is a Do-Over.

And I'd want one if Biden just started to lose it. Pummeling supporters while screaming "Take your stinking paws off me, you damn dirty ape!!!"
  #7  
Old 03-12-2020, 04:27 PM
RioRico is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 2,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by digs View Post
...I'd want [a Do-Over] if Biden just started to lose it. Pummeling supporters while screaming "Take your stinking paws off me, you damn dirty ape!!!"
Trimp does that every day. Must Biden become Trimp-ish? Can he has cheezeburger?

Back to topic. Biden appears to be in much better physical and mental condition than the orange terror and likely has more competent medical care on hand, since he's sane. With an convenient Biden death, look for assassins. I'd hate to be his food taster now.
  #8  
Old 03-12-2020, 04:59 PM
Atamasama's Avatar
Atamasama is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 5,410
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
Bernie supporters will of course want to say "Bernie got the most votes of anyone still in the race, so he should be the guy". But I would think (hope, anyway) that the party would be like "not so fast: voters spoke loud and clear that they want a mainstream Democrat, not Bernie the socialist".
Plus, Bernie has had a recent heart attack (5 months ago I think). I hope he has many happy years ahead of him, but letís be honest, he probably doesnít. If a medical condition incapacitates the presumptive nominee, it doesnít make sense to then replace him with someone even more likely to have a medical risk.
  #9  
Old 03-13-2020, 02:14 AM
Little Nemo is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Western New York
Posts: 85,185
In my opinion, if Biden died this week, the Democrats should probably turn to Sanders.

Sanders has lost to Biden. But everyone else who ran has lost to Biden and Sanders. Sanders is the strongest candidate if Biden disappears.

And I feel the Sanders supporters would have a legitimate complaint if the party decided to bring in somebody who hasn't been running when Sanders has gone through the process.
  #10  
Old 03-13-2020, 03:58 AM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
No way. Democratic voters have made it crystal clear they think it's too risky to nominate Sanders. Just because he has an adamantine base of core supporters like no one else has does not change that fact.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #11  
Old 03-13-2020, 01:12 PM
drad dog is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 6,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
No way. Democratic voters have made it crystal clear they think it's too risky to nominate Sanders. Just because he has an adamantine base of core supporters like no one else has does not change that fact.
All we know is that he is in second place. Not the rest of this.
  #12  
Old 03-13-2020, 02:38 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
It was my sense of the race months ago, but since then I think it has become crystal clear to anyone who's not really squinting and trying to see something that just isn't there. Just look at how, when other candidates dropped out, nearly all their support went to Biden. It's absolutely plain that the majority of the party wants to nominate almost anyone but Bernie.

ETA: If anyone's holding out hope that Biden will get knocked out of the race and Bernie can sneak back in there, that's reaallly desperate and kind of sad.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc

Last edited by SlackerInc; 03-13-2020 at 02:40 PM.
  #13  
Old 03-13-2020, 04:13 PM
Wesley Clark's Avatar
Wesley Clark is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 23,478
Quote:
Originally Posted by SlackerInc View Post
No way. Democratic voters have made it crystal clear they think it's too risky to nominate Sanders. Just because he has an adamantine base of core supporters like no one else has does not change that fact.
It's currently 881 delegates for Biden and 725 for sanders.

It isn't like sanders is some marginalized candidate, despite your efforts to portray him as such.

Ideally Biden would pick a vp candidate or surrogate before it comes to this decision and they would take over for Biden.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
  #14  
Old 03-14-2020, 01:47 AM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
Not a marginalized candidate?

Here are 538's current odds for who may win more than half of delegates to the DNC convention:

Biden 99.9%

No one 0.1%

Sanders 0%

__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #15  
Old 03-14-2020, 02:01 AM
Little Nemo is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Western New York
Posts: 85,185
If it's a race between Biden and Sanders, I agree; Biden has beaten Sanders.

But that's not the scenario you set up in this thread. If Biden is gone, who do you see as the new default nominee?

I've already said who I see: Sanders. But you're disagreeing. So who do you think it should be?

You seem to be suggesting that the remaining primaries will produce a new front runner. But that's not going to happen. Warren's in third place with 58 delegates. And if Sanders isn't going to overtake Biden's 156 delegate lead, then Warren is definitely not going to overtake Sanders' 644 delegate lead. Especially when she would have to restart her campaign from a standstill.

So if Biden's gone, Sanders is going to show up in Milwaukee with a strong lead over anyone else there. What do you think should happen at that point?
  #16  
Old 03-14-2020, 02:06 AM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
I do like Wesley Clark's suggestion of Biden naming some kind of surrogate who would then carry the baton. But if he didn't, it should be someone from the moderate lane who has demonstrated electability with swing voters. That sounds like Klobuchar to me, but there are other possibilities including some who have not been in the primaries (Sherrod Brown) or some who dropped out early (Steve Bullock). Definitely not Warren, and not Bloomberg or Buttigieg either.
__________________
SlackerInc on Twitter: http://twitter.com/slackerinc
  #17  
Old 03-14-2020, 03:38 AM
RioRico is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: beyond cell service
Posts: 2,453
I just checked a summary of DNC rules.
Quote:
The rules stipulate that delegates from candidates who have withdrawn from the race will lose their right to attend and be replaced by delegates pledged to the designated front-runner.
If Biden dies before the convention, he's pretty much "withdrawn" from contention, not "suspended" (unless his taxidermied corpse is paraded ala Lenin). Thus Bernie's best path to the nomination runs over Biden's dead body. But he'd still lose in November.
  #18  
Old 03-14-2020, 03:15 PM
DrDeth is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,967
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emily Litella View Post
They would still have the convention in July, if there isn't a majority of delegates for Bernie and there most likely won't be, then the party will pick whoever they want.
The party picks no one. The voters do, in those case the delegates the voters picked.
  #19  
Old 03-14-2020, 04:00 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
I just checked a summary of DNC rules.

If Biden dies before the convention, he's pretty much "withdrawn" from contention, not "suspended" (unless his taxidermied corpse is paraded ala Lenin). Thus Bernie's best path to the nomination runs over Biden's dead body. But he'd still lose in November.

I have trouble believing thatís the way the rules would really be applied in practice. If it were, that would mean an incumbent president running with token opposition would be replaced on the ticket by some fringe candidate if they managed to win a single delegate in their home state or something.

I sure hope this is not how it would work, because this is a live issue this year. I am already nervous enough about RBG, I donít need to worry about Biden too.
  #20  
Old 03-14-2020, 04:17 PM
DrDeth is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,967
I will point out that Biden is in better health than Sanders or trump.
  #21  
Old 03-14-2020, 07:49 PM
SlackerInc's Avatar
SlackerInc is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Northern Minnesota
Posts: 13,226
True, but he’s 78 and a very...tactile person.
  #22  
Old 03-14-2020, 08:19 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 16,101
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
It's currently 881 delegates for Biden and 725 for sanders.

It isn't like sanders is some marginalized candidate, despite your efforts to portray him as such.

Ideally Biden would pick a vp candidate or surrogate before it comes to this decision and they would take over for Biden.
I think you know better than this. With all delegates allocated proportionally, that is a massive massive deficit to overcome. This isn’t football, you can’t just score 3 unanswered touchdowns for a 4th quarter comeback. No one seriously believes that Biden is getting shut out of delegates in any state now that’s it is a two person race. So, it’s impossible for him to come back, especially since TX and CA are done and Florida ain’t looking good.
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42 He/Him/His

Last edited by dalej42; 03-14-2020 at 08:21 PM.
  #23  
Old 03-14-2020, 09:15 PM
DrDeth is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: San Jose
Posts: 43,967
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
It's currently 881 delegates for Biden and 725 for sanders.

It isn't like sanders is some marginalized candidate, despite your efforts to portray him as such.

Ideally Biden would pick a vp candidate or surrogate before it comes to this decision and they would take over for Biden.
Except the 87 to Biden from Bloomberg and Pete.

890 to 736 last count.

March 17th should end this, if bernie bombs out, he'd better concede.
  #24  
Old 03-15-2020, 08:39 AM
Kimera757 is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 774
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
March 17th should end this, if bernie bombs out, he'd better concede.
Let's hope so. But his followers might join the Never Joe Movement. (This is why the Democratic Party can't have nice things. People can't remember things that happened four years ago.)
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:09 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017