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  #101  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:40 AM
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It looks like all the dogs in my neighborhood are amazed and delighted by all the extra walkies that they're getting. I'm seeing a lot of smiling, panting dog faces being walked by our house for the last few days.
  #102  
Old 03-25-2020, 10:58 AM
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UK: the government have just added Off Licenses (liquor stores) to the list of essential shops which can stay open.
  #103  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by asahi View Post
South Korea has provided a road map to contagion control. That should be the best news of all, but we're too wrapped up in our own ego to think South Korea has anything to teach "the best public health system in the world."
that's not "we" that's republicans. Include me out.
  #104  
Old 03-25-2020, 11:07 AM
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Originally Posted by teela brown View Post
It looks like all the dogs in my neighborhood are amazed and delighted by all the extra walkies that they're getting. I'm seeing a lot of smiling, panting dog faces being walked by our house for the last few days.
Thank you for that adorable mental image! Here, too. Sitting at my desk, which looks out on the front lawn, many, many dog walkers, and often the same ones a couple of times a day. This is a very low density population area, so you can walk your dog (or yourself) and never get closer than half a block to anyone.
  #105  
Old 03-25-2020, 12:34 PM
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The rate of growth in Canada of symptomatic cases is no longer exponential; it has clearly not been exponential for about a week, coinciding with the general adoption of work closures and social distancing orders.

Still too early to get happy, but it's nice to see.

https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...-19-cases.html

ETA: It's also worth noting testing is proceeding a little faster than it was before. Canada has tested between 120,000 and 150,000 people, depending which source I'm reading; all sources suggest we're currently administering 10,000 tests a day and trying to do more.
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Last edited by RickJay; 03-25-2020 at 12:45 PM.
  #106  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:05 PM
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Will testing show that you have had it, but no longer do? If I had it, but no longer do, I can't spread it?
  #107  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:27 PM
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Will testing show that you have had it, but no longer do? If I had it, but no longer do, I can't spread it?
Yes, but it is only in the UK right now:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a9424741.html


Quote:
New 15-minute home test kits for coronavirus will be made available to the British public within days, said a Public Health England (PHE) director.

Thousands of tests will be sold in chemists such as Boots or delivered by Amazon to people with symptoms who are self-isolating as soon as next week.

Professor Sharon Peacock, director of the national infection service at PHE, told MPs on the science and technology committee once the tests are cleared, they will be “distributed to the community”.

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said the government bought millions of the tests on Tuesday and is ordering millions more.

The antibody test involves pricking a finger and analysing a drop of blood in a device that looks like a pregnancy test. It will only tell the person if they have had Covid-19, not if they currently have it.
  #108  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:28 PM
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Canada has reported at least 2792 cases and 27 deaths. This with one million Canadians recently returning from overseas in a massive repatriation effort. Most people are taking social distancing seriously. This implies a mortality rate below 1%. Since the number of cases is possibly 10 times higher, even much lower.

“Non-essential” (as defined by gov’t) stores and services have been closed for two weeks. A massive funding package was introduced, and after some serious power overreach was taken out, passed.

The price of gas, following collapse of the local market and oil prices, is 65 cents a litre. Was it fifteen years since this has been the case?

The tough work is still ahead and one wants to see patterns remain positive for a week before drawing any conclusions. We know things come in waves.
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  #109  
Old 03-25-2020, 01:35 PM
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If you had it, but no longer do, does that mean its safe for you to, like, deliver groceries for quarantined neighbors? That seems a mite shaky to me, like I can pick up the virus and bring it to someone else, even if it won't hurt me any.
  #110  
Old 03-25-2020, 02:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr_Paprika View Post
The price of gas, following collapse of the local market and oil prices, is 65 cents a litre. Was it fifteen years since this has been the case?
The low price of gas is only slightly caused by the reduction in driving due to the coronavirus. Mostly it's due to Saudi Arabia flooding the world market with oil. As far as I can tell, it's just a coincidence it's happening during the pandemic.
  #111  
Old 03-25-2020, 06:17 PM
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If you had it, but no longer do, does that mean its safe for you to, like, deliver groceries for quarantined neighbors? That seems a mite shaky to me, like I can pick up the virus and bring it to someone else, even if it won't hurt me any.
You are certainly much safer, assuming you know you are way past the point you would have fought it off.
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  #112  
Old 03-26-2020, 05:53 AM
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It is hurting the Nuts and Rednecks Association .
  #113  
Old 03-26-2020, 02:18 PM
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Here's some good news, but only for very few people:
Inmates’ Executions Are Put Off Because of Pandemic: Texas has issued 60-day stays for two men scheduled to die this month and several other states are weighing similar action, as the coronavirus crisis disrupts official business.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/prisone...=hp_listb_pos2

Last edited by PastTense; 03-26-2020 at 02:18 PM.
  #114  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:06 PM
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I like to try to list countries with no cases at all. So far, I have
Burundi
Vanuatu
Solomon Islands
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Last edited by psychobunny; 03-26-2020 at 07:07 PM.
  #115  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:18 PM
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Also Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Yemen.
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  #116  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:10 PM
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No test, no cases.

Yes, other factors are involved in low gas prices and oil industry malaise. But not long ago gas was nearly twice the price, and one seeks good news where one can.

Canada is up to 4000 cases and 37 deaths. This seems better than many countries, but if Canada recovers quicker than the US, our economy is still screwed. The good news is the CFR is decreasing. Hospitals are still low on supplies: now Canada is being criticized for donating 16 tons of PPE to China in February and destroying its Ontario mask stockpile. These things happen, I guess, but China needs to release political prisoners pronto.
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  #117  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:32 PM
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Will testing show that you have had it, but no longer do? If I had it, but no longer do, I can't spread it?

Singapore has it and I THINK South Korea. I’d love to know this.


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  #118  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:37 PM
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2 notes:

According to University of Washington the peak epidemic level will be mid April, and reach below pandemic levels in June with it gone by July:


https://news.trust.org/item/20200326232240-2yx1f

This of course will vary state by state.

Also I read another report that New York City animal shelters are all but empty.


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  #119  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Dr_Paprika View Post

The price of gas, following collapse of the local market and oil prices, is 65 cents a litre. Was it fifteen years since this has been the case?
It's $1.29/gallon or 34 cents a liter in my area.
  #120  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:25 PM
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I went to the store today and there was - finally - plenty of toilet paper on the shelves.
  #121  
Old 03-27-2020, 01:09 PM
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We are flattening the curve.

America is 40% less mobile than usual and this is reducing the spread of the virus.
So it looks like mitigation efforts are making a difference.

This is good news.
If we don't keep it up, bad news is just around the corner.
  #122  
Old 03-28-2020, 12:44 AM
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Now that India has been shut down, it seems that the number of spam calls saying I'm to be arrested for Social Security fraud or something has gone way down.
  #123  
Old 03-28-2020, 11:57 AM
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Should be very helpful if it works as promised, and especially if it can be made widely available:

https://www.mytwintiers.com/health/c...-in-5-minutes/

Quote:
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has cleared a new rapid test from Abbott Laboratories, which the company says can detect the coronavirus in about 5 minutes.

Medical device maker Abbott announced the emergency clearance of its cartridge-based test in a release Friday night. The company says that its test delivers a negative result in 13 minutes when the virus is not detected.[ . . . ]

The company said it would launch the test next week to select health care facilities that deliver urgent care.
  #124  
Old 03-28-2020, 04:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Paprika View Post
Hospitals are still low on supplies: now Canada is being criticized for donating 16 tons of PPE to China in February and destroying its Ontario mask stockpile. These things happen, I guess, but China needs to release political prisoners pronto.
But China has now returned the favour: “China donates thousands of medical masks, personal protective equipment to Canada”

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/national/pol...1_4872541.html
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  #125  
Old 03-28-2020, 05:10 PM
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Like other major U.S. cities, Chicago has seen a dip in crime with the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting virtually every aspect of the country’s way of life.

Despite beginning 2020 with crime spikes, particularly related to gun violence, Chicago saw a sudden single-week drop of nearly 20% in major crimes in mid-March, records show. That was just as much activity in Chicago was slowing.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...cdm-story.html
  #126  
Old 03-28-2020, 06:02 PM
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I like to try to list countries with no cases at all. So far, I have
Burundi
Vanuatu
Solomon Islands
North Korea has no reported cases.
  #127  
Old 03-28-2020, 06:08 PM
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Singapore has it and I THINK South Korea. I’d love to know this.


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South Korea is heading towards 10,000 cases so far.
link to CoronaVirus Dashboard

This site was apparently the brainchild of a high school student. It's been up since there were only a few hundred cases in the US.
  #128  
Old 03-28-2020, 06:09 PM
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My contribution of good news: mass shootings are WAY down.
  #129  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:06 PM
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North Korea has no reported cases.
It is generally agree that North Korea has several unreported cases.
  #130  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:24 PM
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My contribution of good news: mass shootings are WAY down.
Several death rates are down:
  • flu and other non-Covid communicable diseases
  • auto accidents
  • air pollution

I may have missed some. Of course, deaths due to domestic violence are probably up, but it wouldn't surprise me if the net effect of the virus and all the distancing and quarantining is a reduced overall death rate.
  #131  
Old 03-28-2020, 07:41 PM
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Quarantine Safari
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Conservation biologist Latika Nath said that it was a hearteening sign that pollution levels in the air and water had come down enough for rare birds and animals can be seen in urban habitats. . . .

Since birders cannot step out, most of them document birds from their balconies or compounds
But my favorite in the thread remains #113.

Last edited by PhillyGuy; 03-28-2020 at 07:42 PM.
  #132  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:47 PM
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101 year old man beats the virus

As did a 103 year old woman and 97 year old woman.
  #133  
Old 03-29-2020, 12:14 PM
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South Korea is heading towards 10,000 cases so far.
link to CoronaVirus Dashboard

This site was apparently the brainchild of a high school student. It's been up since there were only a few hundred cases in the US.
Impressive for a HS student.

I've been using Worldometer. that website has improved over time. They recently added deaths per million which is something I was calculating on a spreadsheet.
  #134  
Old 03-29-2020, 11:45 PM
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Venice, which was polluted and crowded to the point of damage, is now not polluted and crowded: the canals are so clear you can see fish!

Repeated advice to DON'T TOUCH YOUR FACE! is going to see a dramatic drop in teenage acne (if they pay any attention.)

And on a purely personal note In my city, women normally expect and assert right-of-way on the footpaths. But now they're walking single file, and even stepping off onto the grass for blokes like me to go past
  #135  
Old Today, 10:52 AM
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With everyone here on mandatory telework, departments which had been reluctant to offer week-long teleworking or any at all will likely realize that their fears of losing productivity weren't valid.

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  #136  
Old Today, 11:27 AM
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Based on the daily increase numbers - which have flattened off - I think it's likely that we have at least caught up with our testing or, even possibly, started to see some effectiveness to shelter-at-home.
  #137  
Old Today, 11:58 AM
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My 14 year old son, who loves math and statistics, pointed me to this site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

He pointed out if you go to the US section here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

...and scroll down to the chart called "Daily New Cases in the United States" you can see that we're about at the top of the bell curve, so we should be about halfway out of the woods. (NOTE: that's "Daily New Cases", not "Total Coronavirus Cases", which shows no sign of leveling off yet.)

Comparing it to China's "Daily New Cases", you can see the complete bell curve as they got through their outbreak (with a couple spikes where they instituted mass testing on a couple different days well into the outbreak).

Italy's "Daily New Cases" bell curve is interesting-- it's a double bell curve, on the downslope for the second time. I'm not sure, but I'm guessing they thought they were almost through it and let their guard down at one point. So we hopefully won't do the same.

Last edited by solost; Today at 11:59 AM.
  #138  
Old Today, 01:17 PM
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...and scroll down to the chart called "Daily New Cases in the United States" you can see that we're about at the top of the bell curve, so we should be about halfway out of the woods. (NOTE: that's "Daily New Cases", not "Total Coronavirus Cases", which shows no sign of leveling off yet.)
I know that this is supposed to be "good news" but, in the interest of correctness, it should be pointed out that:

1) It's not a bell curve, the expected shape is a sharp rise followed by a very gentle slope back down.
2) Resumption of normal activities - because things have leveled off - could cause new growth spikes. China, for example, should expect to see a massive wave of infections if they relieve any restrictions, unless they can either cure the disease or somehow ensure that 100% of the people who have it are identified, have fully recovered, and that no human being enters the nation from an outside country until a cure for Covid-19 is discovered.

It's highly unlikely that China's current infection and death rates are the levels that they say they are. I wouldn't be surprised if the country has already re-spiked in a few regions a few times.
  #139  
Old Today, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
I know that this is supposed to be "good news" but, in the interest of correctness, it should be pointed out that:

1) It's not a bell curve, the expected shape is a sharp rise followed by a very gentle slope back down.
2) Resumption of normal activities - because things have leveled off - could cause new growth spikes. China, for example, should expect to see a massive wave of infections if they relieve any restrictions, unless they can either cure the disease or somehow ensure that 100% of the people who have it are identified, have fully recovered, and that no human being enters the nation from an outside country until a cure for Covid-19 is discovered.

It's highly unlikely that China's current infection and death rates are the levels that they say they are. I wouldn't be surprised if the country has already re-spiked in a few regions a few times.
Well, China and South Korea's "Daily New Cases" charts appear to be bell curves, if you believe their data:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/china/
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...y/south-korea/

Although S. Korea is getting a steady recurring lower level of new cases after their initial bell-curve style spike and downturn.

And bell curve or otherwise, the main point is the steep up-curve of new cases appears to be leveling off in the US.

And I did point out that letting our guard down could reverse that trend, as the double-curve of Italy's "Daily New Cases" chart seems to show:
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/italy/

(again, scroll down each link a bit to see the "Daily New Cases" charts for each country)
  #140  
Old Today, 04:10 PM
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There's a company out there that makes Internet-connected thermometers so they are getting a lot of data on random people's temperatures and posting it online. They have a good track record in seeing flu outbreaks ahead of the CDC.

The news is good. Outside of a couple areas they are seeing a flattening of the number of people with fevers.

Caveats: There's no reliability as to the same people taking their temps repeatedly. (E.g., some people might go into denial mode and not take their temp when they feel symptoms.) Also the demo is likely skewed heavily towards younger people who might be asymptomatic, etc.

Still, I like it. Except for S. Colorado being an exception. Have several relatives in and near that area.
  #141  
Old Today, 04:52 PM
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We are flattening the curve.

America is 40% less mobile than usual and this is reducing the spread of the virus.
So it looks like mitigation efforts are making a difference.

This is good news.
If we don't keep it up, bad news is just around the corner.
We are on day 6 on this new trajectory. We are already 500K fewer infections than the prior trajectory was projecting. At this rate we will not see 1,000,000 cases until the 8th or 9th. We have not seen an inflection point yet, each day brings more cases than the previous day so we are still exponential but we are getting close to linear growth and our health care system can handle linear growth at least at this level.

Best case scenario 100,000-150,000 people die and that's about as many people as we lose to cancer and heart disease (combined) every year.

If we don't get a second wave in the fall we might have a vaccine out in time for next Spring.
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