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  #251  
Old 09-10-2019, 11:57 AM
Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamlet View Post
Really. You can't say much for the depth and dynasty upside there? Wow, do we disagree. But who is surprised by that.

Thomas and Smith Schuster are top 5 dynasty WR's, Allen is #10, Boyd was the #20 scoring WR last year and will soon be the #1 on his team, Gallup just went off for almost 20 points, and Kirk has a ton of potential. Yes, Mike Williams is injured and Marquise Lee is hot garbage so far, but I'd put my top 2, top 3, top 4, top 5, or top 6 against yours over the next few years anyday.
If we're just looking at this year (which Jules confirmed is the case) this makes sense. But, here's where I see the holes.

WR1: Julio vs. Thomas - I like Jones better this year and every year going forward. I love Thomas, he was a long time feature in several of my league and I had him in HHM as a rockstar keeper since his rookie year. But here's where I think it really matters, Brees is 40 and I think he's done in 2 years making Thomas a major unknown long term.

WR2: JuJu vs. Golladay - I like Golladay better, but I totally concede I'm probably on an island with that one. We don't know what to expect out of JuJu with AB gone and him receiving double coverage. Most of the rankings project him as basically being the new AB, but I'm not convinced. I think Golladay will be the next Michael Thomas.

WR3: Adam Thielen vs. Keenan Allen - Not sure what the ratings say, but gimme Thielen all day simply based on availability. Factor in the eventual Rivers' retirement and this feels like an easy win over the next 5 years.

WR4: Robert Woods vs. Mike Williams - I think Mike Williams is a much, much sexier pick and again I don't know what happens when Rivers is gone, but when you factor in health and outside factors I much prefer the high-floor of Woods when thinking about a WR4. Wouldn't be shocked if Jules' chart sees this as a big win in your favor though.

WR5: Golden Tate vs. Tyler Boyd - If you're a Boyd believer (I'm not, mostly because that offense is gonna suck for a while) and you think Tate's days are numbered, this is a win for you. Even if Boyd under performs I concede that Tate's best days are behind him.

Bench/Depth: Arcega-Whiteside/Meyers vs. Kirk/Gallup/Lee - I acknowledged that depth is my biggest weakness and I give you a win here, but even so I don't think it's a huge gap. Kirk vs. JJ is probably pretty close. Meyers is a total unknown and Brady will be gone soon (maybe?). I'd take Jules guys over yours any day.
  #252  
Old 09-10-2019, 02:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
WR1: Julio vs. Thomas - I like Jones better this year and every year going forward. I love Thomas, he was a long time feature in several of my league and I had him in HHM as a rockstar keeper since his rookie year. But here's where I think it really matters, Brees is 40 and I think he's done in 2 years making Thomas a major unknown long term.
Thomas is 4 years younger than Julio, who is already 30. For two guys with pretty identical production, I'll take that anyday.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omni
WR2: JuJu vs. Golladay - I like Golladay better, but I totally concede I'm probably on an island with that one. We don't know what to expect out of JuJu with AB gone and him receiving double coverage. Most of the rankings project him as basically being the new AB, but I'm not convinced. I think Golladay will be the next Michael Thomas.
JuJu was #10 WR last year. Hell, my #4 WR, Tyler Boyd, outscored Golladay last year. JuJu is also 3 years younger, and a top 5 ranked WR in dynasty while Golladay is #15.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omni
WR3: Adam Thielen vs. Keenan Allen - Not sure what the ratings say, but gimme Thielen all day simply based on availability. Factor in the eventual Rivers' retirement and this feels like an easy win over the next 5 years.
You know what surprised me. Keenan Allen is 2 years YOUNGER than Adam Thielen, who is already 29 years old. If you want the guy on a run first team with Kirk Cousins over guy who has missed just one game in the last 2 years and is the clear #1 on his pass first team, have at it. Especially when you add in my having Mike Williams in case anything happens to Keenan.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omni
WR4: Robert Woods vs. Mike Williams - I think Mike Williams is a much, much sexier pick and again I don't know what happens when Rivers is gone, but when you factor in health and outside factors I much prefer the high-floor of Woods when thinking about a WR4. Wouldn't be shocked if Jules' chart sees this as a big win in your favor though.

WR5: Golden Tate vs. Tyler Boyd - If you're a Boyd believer (I'm not, mostly because that offense is gonna suck for a while) and you think Tate's days are numbered, this is a win for you. Even if Boyd under performs I concede that Tate's best days are behind him.
I'd actually mix those up, putting Boyd at #4 and Williams at #5. And, at this point on my roster, I'd much rather Boyd and Williams' upside over the next few years over the "low floor" of Robert Woods (who has exactly 1 1,000 yard season in 5 years and is one of 3 mouths to feed). Don't even get me started on Golden Tate. Hell, I'd rather Arcega Whiteside than Tate, who I would never, ever want to start. At this point on my roster, give me the upside over low floor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omni
Bench/Depth: Arcega-Whiteside/Meyers vs. Kirk/Gallup/Lee - I acknowledged that depth is my biggest weakness and I give you a win here, but even so I don't think it's a huge gap. Kirk vs. JJ is probably pretty close. Meyers is a total unknown and Brady will be gone soon (maybe?). I'd take Jules guys over yours any day.
I like Arcega Whiteside alot, but Gallup is looking really good so far this season. But I agree, this is a win for me too.

Last edited by Hamlet; 09-10-2019 at 02:28 PM.
  #253  
Old 09-10-2019, 03:26 PM
Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
Trying to reverse engineer this a bit for my own narcissistic reasons. Looking to understand how these are weighted on the "dynasty" aspects versus the winning this year as illustrated by these WR ranks.

Here's the rosters:
1. Hamlet:
Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, Marquise Lee

2. Jules:
Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Anthony Miller, Albert Wilson, James Washington, Hakeem, Butler, Terry McLaurin, Preston Williams

3. Omni:
Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Jakobi Meyers
I would take any of Hamlet's guys over any of yours except Julio. I am not a huge fan of Jules' wideouts because it feels like a roster of Little Fast Guys who get injured a lot and fade quickly once they do. Not coincidentally, I owned (and traded away) both Brandin Cooks and Tyreek Hill.
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  #254  
Old 09-10-2019, 04:16 PM
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Ahem.

Josh Gordon.
  #255  
Old 09-10-2019, 10:12 PM
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Let's check back in when Golladay leads the league in WR TDs this year. ;-)
  #256  
Old 09-11-2019, 04:19 PM
Ellis Dee is online now
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SDMB-Dynasty League - Week 1

Rnk Week 1.......Actual
01. Hamlet.......192.40
02. Overly.......145.10
03. dale.........144.40
04. Justin.......136.50
05. Retro........131.35
06. RNATB........129.80
07. Petey........125.70
08. Gaffer.......120.85
09. Beef.........120.45
10. Omni.........114.24
11. Ellis........113.55
12. Jules.........75.45


Rnk Week 1....Potential
01. Hamlet.......211.00
02. Ellis........206.40
03. Overly.......191.20
04. dale.........169.75
05. Justin.......160.40
06. Petey........154.10
07. Retro........153.95
08. Gaffer.......149.85
09. Beef.........147.30
10. RNATB........147.00
11. Jules........134.65
12. Omni.........117.34


Rnk Week 1.......Coach.
01. Omni.........97% A+
02. Hamlet.......91% A-
03. RNATB........88% B+
04. Retro........85% B
05. Justin.......85% B
06. dale.........85% B
07. Beef.........82% B-
08. Petey........82% B-
09. Gaffer.......81% B-
10. Overly.......76% C
11. Jules........56% F
12. Ellis........55% F




My "F" coaching grade doesn't surprise me at all. What does surprise me is that my 200+ potential wasn't tops. Hamlet is off to a crazy good start.
  #257  
Old 09-11-2019, 05:01 PM
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Quote:
Rnk Week 1....Potential
01. Hamlet.......211.00
02. Ellis........206.40
03. Overly.......191.20
04. dale.........169.75
05. Justin.......160.40
06. Petey........154.10
07. Retro........153.95
08. Gaffer.......149.85
09. Beef.........147.30
10. RNATB........147.00
11. Jules........134.65
12. Omni.........117.34


[b]Rnk Week 1.......Coach.
01. Omni.........97% A+
02. Hamlet.......91% A-
03. RNATB........88% B+
04. Retro........85% B
05. Justin.......85% B
06. dale.........85% B
07. Beef.........82% B-
08. Petey........82% B-
09. Gaffer.......81% B-
10. Overly.......76% C
11. Jules........56% F
12. Ellis........55% F
Um, yay???

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-11-2019 at 05:03 PM.
  #258  
Old 09-11-2019, 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Ellis Dee View Post
Hamlet is off to a crazy good start.
One week. no injuries. I can't imagine that will continue.

Although, for shits and grins, I totaled up my backups as if they were starters. With the typical starting lineup, I'd have Rivers, Mack, Singletary, Boyd, Kirk, Gallup, Williams, Waller, Fairburne, and Buffalo D as my starters. I would have scored 133.07, which would have been the 5th highest score of the week. Scary when my bench is competitive too.

But, like I said, it's not likely to continue.
  #259  
Old 09-12-2019, 04:39 AM
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Pretty bad start for the good guys. Continuing last season's trend, I had a ton of injuries, horrifically underperformed compared to projection, and had a week where none of my WRs, RBs, or TE scored a TD. If anyone has ever scored fewer points compared to their projection in the history of this league, I would be surprised.

I now have 55% of my opening day roster hurt. Tyreek Hill is out 4-6 weeks, Hunter Henry is out 4-6 weeks, and James Conner and Joe Mixon are not practicing and likely won't play. And in a development that has become all too common for me over the last year, even my fucking kicker was hurt. Cannily, I suspected he would miss the game before Sunday and picked up a replacement. Except the replacement I got scored 0 points, because of course he did.

Do we really have to go through the bullshit pageantry and formality of having a season, or can I just start the 2020 draft with the 1.01 now?
  #260  
Old 09-15-2019, 06:41 PM
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I never thought I’d be in a position to start 2-0. However, I’m well aware that my roster is paper thin and when bye weeks and the inevitable injuries set in, I’ll be scraping to put a team together.
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Last edited by dalej42; 09-15-2019 at 06:41 PM.
  #261  
Old 09-16-2019, 09:57 AM
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Man, that was brutal.

Brees is probably going to be out for multiple weeks and DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery were both knocked out of last night's game. Oh, and Jimmy Graham put up a zero too.

I feel like four zeroes in one week has to be some kind of record in this league.
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  #262  
Old 09-16-2019, 10:13 AM
Ellis Dee is online now
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Ha! Not even that good, one of those zeros is actually -0.10. Ouch.
  #263  
Old 09-18-2019, 01:41 PM
Ellis Dee is online now
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Patting myself on the back for a couple good waiver bids. My fear with waiver bids is always that I'll be shown completely out of touch with everyone else, particularly if I bid a ton of money on guys nobody else wants anyway.

So far I've made three waiver bids this season, and all have been solid efforts, so yay for me:

Week 1: Benny Fowler, WR, NYG
$0 Ellis (won)

I correctly assessed that nobody else wants this guy. Um, yay? Seriously, though, I'm happy to win a $0 waiver claim.


Week 1: DJ Chark, WR, Jax
$17 Beef (won)
$12 Ellis
$2 Omni

I didn't win this, but Beef confirmed my valuation was roughly correct. (Or I did that for his bid.)


Week 2: Demarcus Robinson, WR, KC
$50 Ellis (won)
$47 Jules
$31 Beef
$12 Gaffer
$0 RNATB

Woohoo! Who knows if he's worth $50, but when you bid $50 and win over a $47 bid, that's hugely gratifying.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 09-18-2019 at 01:45 PM.
  #264  
Old 09-18-2019, 02:59 PM
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I have five tight ends. All but one are likely to miss their games this week. One is the suspended Chris Herndon, so not a huge surprise, and one is Jordan Reed, so ditto, but now Njoku and Higbee are injured too! I'm willing to trade Reed. He's only in his seventh year, and could lead the league in catches again next season, but he is injured a lot. I'm looking for a mid-round RB (not necessarily a health one), or willing to package him for an RB2.
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  #265  
Old 09-18-2019, 03:43 PM
Ellis Dee is online now
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Ouch, that sucks about Njoku. I felt good about that trade but now feel kinda bad. (I started Hock over a WR in week 2 and he only scored 6 for me, if that helps at all.)

Big Ben is officially done, now, right? He says he's coming back, but, yeah... So I released him, which now means I've released both Eli and Big Ben in the span of a month. Those are pretty much the only two guys I ever remember starting a game for my team in this league. Ben has been a solid starter for me (top 3 last year!) for years, and before him I'm pretty sure I just started Eli. I don't recall any other "name" QB on my team at any point.

The Mayfield/Jones/Mariota era has officially begun for me, but oh man how I wish I had Darnold instead of Mariota as my #3 to have a "set for years" position so I never have to think about QB in a draft again. (Two first picks two years in a row...) Maybe I can pry Darnold away from Beef next year. I almost drafted Kyler Murray at the end of the 2nd as trade bait to that end, but I already had too many QBs at the time (4 counting Ben) and Marquise Brown looked too good to pass up. (I desperately need WRs.)

So now my hopeless goal for 2019 is for Mariota to look great and Darnold to look terrible (so far so good!) to try and grease the wheels for a 2020 trade. Through two weeks Mariota is a crappy 16th, in the same tier with guys like Garoppolo and Rivers. (Yikes, what happened to Rivers?) I'm not even confident Mariota keeps his job, much less becomes valuable trade bait. Ugh.
  #266  
Old 09-18-2019, 04:34 PM
Ellis Dee is online now
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SDMB-Dynasty League - Week 2

Rnk Week 2.......Actual....Rnk Season.......Actual
01. Gaffer +7....154.25....01. Hamlet.......333.65
02. Hamlet -1....141.35....02. Gaffer +6....275.10
03. Petey +4.....133.50....03. dale.........273.95
04. dale -1......129.60....04. Petey +3.....259.20
05. Jules +7.....127.35....05. RNATB +1.....246.82
06. Omni +4......123.28....06. Overly -4....245.65
07. RNATB -1.....117.02....07. Retro -2.....241.97
08. Retro -3.....110.62....08. Omni +2......237.52
09. Overly -7....100.55....09. Beef.........220.40
10. Beef -1.......99.95....10. Ellis +1.....207.22
11. Ellis.........93.67....11. Jules +1.....202.80
12. Justin -8.....63.90
....12. Justin -8....199.40


Rnk Week 2....Potential....Rnk Season....Potential
01. Hamlet.......169.87....01. Hamlet.......380.87
02. Gaffer +6....162.55....02. Overly +1....324.05
03. Petey +3.....151.50....03. dale +1......321.00
04. dale.........151.25....04. Ellis -2.....316.57
05. Jules +6.....147.85....05. Gaffer +3....312.40
06. Omni +6......143.35....06. Petey........305.60
07. Retro........140.30....07. Retro........294.25
08. Overly -5....132.85....08. Jules +3.....282.50
09. Beef.........131.65....09. Beef.........278.95
10. RNATB........122.62....10. Justin -5....277.25
11. Justin -6....116.85....11. RNATB -1.....269.62
12. Ellis -10....110.17
....12. Omni.........260.69


Rnk Week 2.......Coach.....Rnk Season.......Coach.
01. RNATB +2.....95% A.....01. RNATB +2.....92% A-
02. Gaffer +7....95% A.....02. Omni -1......91% A-
03. Petey +5.....88% B+....03. Gaffer +6....88% B+
04. Jules +7.....86% B.....04. Hamlet -2....88% B+
05. Omni -4......86% B.....05. dale.........85% B
06. dale -1......86% B.....06. Petey +2.....85% B
07. Ellis +5.....85% B.....07. Retro -3.....82% B-
08. Hamlet -6....83% B.....08. Beef -1......79% C+
09. Retro -5.....79% C+....09. Overly +1....76% C
10. Beef -3......76% C.....10. Justin -4....72% C-
11. Overly -1....76% C.....11. Jules........72% C-
12. Justin -6....55% F
.....12. Ellis........65% D


SPOILER:

Rnk Week 2.......Actual....Rnk Season.......Actual
01. Gaffer +7....11-0......01. Hamlet.......21-1
02. Hamlet -1....10-1......02. dale +1......17-5
03. Petey +4......9-2......03. Gaffer +5....15-7
04. dale -1.......8-3......04. Petey +3.....14-8
05. Jules +7......7-4......05. Overly -3....13-9
06. Omni +4.......6-5......06. Retro -1.....11-11
07. RNATB -1......5-6......07. RNATB -1.....11-11
08. Retro -3......4-7......08. Justin -4.....8-14
09. Overly -7.....3-8......09. Omni +1.......8-14
10. Beef -1.......2-9......10. Jules +2......7-15
11. Ellis.........1-10.....11. Beef -2.......5-17
12. Justin -8.....0-11
.....12. Ellis -1......2-20


Rnk Week 2....Potential....Rnk Season....Potential
01. Hamlet.......11-0......01. Hamlet.......22-0
02. Gaffer +6....10-1......02. dale +2......16-6
03. Petey +3......9-2......03. Petey +3.....15-7
04. dale..........8-3......04. Gaffer +4....14-8
05. Jules +6......7-4......05. Overly -2....13-9
06. Omni +6.......6-5......06. Ellis -4.....10-12
07. Retro.........5-6......07. Retro........10-12
08. Overly -5.....4-7......08. Justin -3.....8-14
09. Beef..........3-8......09. Jules +2......8-14
10. RNATB.........2-9......10. Omni +2.......6-16
11. Justin -6.....1-10.....11. Beef -2.......6-16
12. Ellis -10.....0-11
.....12. RNATB -2......4-18




New this season are the Everyone vs Everyone records, and right away I think they demonstrate information not otherwise obvious. My terrible Actual start isn't fully painted with just the raw actual season totals. There I'm 10th, and unremarkable compared to those next to me in the list. But when you look at actual EvE records, my 2-20 stands alone. Next in line is Beef with 5 wins, over double my win total.

I can re-arrange (or remove) any of the 10 individual tables, both up or down and left or right, so if you can think of a better way to present this let me know and I'll try it out. Right now I just stuck with the same 3 rows as last year plus added the two new EvE rows inside a spoiler box to limit thread clutter.


EDIT: If you play in multiple SDMB leagues, be sure to check out your aggregate rankings in the Fantasy football general discussion 2019 thread.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 09-18-2019 at 04:36 PM.
  #267  
Old 09-18-2019, 07:13 PM
Ellis Dee is online now
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Hmmm, when EvE records are tied, should I consider that a true tie and assign the same rank to both, or should I use points as the tiebreaker?

Either way I need to fix it, because right now there are no ties and the tiebreaker is undefined. So that's not great. I never had to think about ties before, really, when it was just points.

Also, should I put the entire thing in a spoiler box? Seems to work fine, and would be more easily skippable when scrolling through the thread.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 09-18-2019 at 07:17 PM.
  #268  
Old 09-19-2019, 12:01 AM
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I can't remember how the division standings work for play off purposes, and in turn for next year's draft. Somebody please give me a quick hit.
  #269  
Old 09-19-2019, 12:06 AM
Ellis Dee is online now
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I think it's the 3 division winners plus the top wildcard go to the playoffs, then the next 4 best records go to the consolation bowl. I think the only tiebreaker for anything is points; division record is ignored altogether, even when tiebreaking the division winner. I think.

The four who go to the consolation bowl are playing to win draft picks 5 through 8, in the same order they finish in there. (To incentivize winning the consolation bowl.) Unfortunately I think it was Retro who lost the consolation bowl two years in a row, which means he finished 8th but also picked 8th when a straight reverse draft would have the 8th place finisher drafting 5th. So we may need to revisit that.

I could be wrong on all of that, though.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 09-19-2019 at 12:10 AM.
  #270  
Old 09-19-2019, 01:01 AM
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Division record is the first tiebreaker for the division win, it doesn't play a role in the wildcard.
  #271  
Old 09-19-2019, 09:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellis Dee View Post
Ouch, that sucks about Njoku. I felt good about that trade but now feel kinda bad. (I started Hock over a WR in week 2 and he only scored 6 for me, if that helps at all.)
Nah, I still feel good about him long-term, and it's apparently just a 3-4 week wrist injury. I'm also still really excited about Herndon, as anyone who managed to put up 500 yards in last year's putrid Jets offense is going to be a star. For now I just need to hope for a TD for Fant, or for Reed to get out of the concussion protocol quick.
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  #272  
Old 09-19-2019, 02:00 PM
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I almost drafted Kyler Murray at the end of the 2nd as trade bait to that end, but I already had too many QBs at the time (4 counting Ben) and Marquise Brown looked too good to pass up. (I desperately need WRs.)
You almost drafted a player that I had already drafted 17 picks earlier?
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Last edited by Justin_Bailey; 09-19-2019 at 02:00 PM.
  #273  
Old 09-19-2019, 06:11 PM
Ellis Dee is online now
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Okay, now I see the issue. The whole draft I kept thinking "Why is that got dropping so much? He's supposed to be good!" And then thankfully I didn't pull the trigger, because I was mixing up Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins in my head and almost mistakenly drafted Haskins thinking he was the Arizona guy. I would've been super bummed. (Haskins went the very next pick.)

Up until reading this post by you, all season I've been following Murray playing the "what if" game. Only now do I see I almost drafted Haskins. Yikes.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 09-19-2019 at 06:12 PM.
  #274  
Old 09-19-2019, 09:06 PM
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If that had gone down that way, the moment you realized your mistake would have been a top 5 all-time moment in this league. Right behind when SenorBeef had a player on his team die.
  #275  
Old Yesterday, 09:13 AM
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Meh. In some ways, Haskins is a better long-term prospect.
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