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Old 08-28-2019, 12:56 PM
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Tropical Storm Dorian May Hit Florida as Hurricane over the Weekend


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Tropical Storm Dorian was hours away from thrashing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday as it continued to gain strength, with forecasters predicting it could become a Category 3 hurricane by the time it hits Florida over the weekend.

Dorian was forecast to become a hurricane later Wednesday and expected to move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of midmorning Wednesday, hurricane warnings were in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico’s island municipalities of Vieques and Culebra. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were in effect for Puerto Rico.

The hurricane center said the storm’s maximum sustained winds had increased to 70 mph with higher gusts, and forecast that Dorian could strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane as it nears Florida this weekend and early next week. Rainfall from the storm could cause 'life-threatening flash floods," according to the hurricane center.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...egory-n1047206

Anyone doing any preparations?

Last edited by PastTense; 08-28-2019 at 12:56 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:37 PM
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I'm in the Keys and we dusted off the hurricane instructions on my job. Alas, it looks to be far north of us as this point. I hope it dissipates but not likely.

It is a hurricane now.
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Last edited by Buttercup Smith; 08-28-2019 at 01:38 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:54 PM
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I'm near Gainesville.


We've got a generator and fuel. That'll probably see us through.


We've got the pole barn mostly sheathed with plywood, to protect the animals (chickens, goats, donkey, tiny horse). Food for all.


However, the real worry is that trees will come down. There's one right over the barn that we've been talking to different tree companies about, and I sure hope this isn't the storm that ends it.


We also have a lot of issues with flooding washing out our neighborhood access roads, plus a bunch of gators living in the already submerged cow pasture next door.


So yeah, things are looking distinctly unshiny at this point. We'll just have to hope for the best.
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Old 08-28-2019, 01:57 PM
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I think we're going to get gas and some cash after work, but that's the extent of it.

You can tell it's coming because it's all anyone can talk about and it's really annoying. Stupid thing isn't even supposed to hit for another 4 or 5 days and everyone is talking like it's going to hit tomorrow. Not to mention it's not even a guarantee that Central Florida is even going to get hit.

All I need is for it to hit on Sunday because that'll mean the mall will be dead (or closed) during my shift and it'll be gone by the time we have Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party on Monday night. Last I heard it was slowing down and might not hit until Monday, which would suuuuuuuccccckkkkkk
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:02 PM
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Alligators and a hurricane you say?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6MLJG0RdDE
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:22 PM
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Alligators and a hurricane you say?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6MLJG0RdDE
I'll laugh when this is over.


I used to like storms when I was a kid...or at least until I started being responsible for the damage.
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Old 08-28-2019, 02:26 PM
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I'm down in Ft Myers which is at the outer edge of the cone at the moment. I will be gassing up after work and getting some cash tomorrow. Gonna be a wet weekend after a month of heavy-ish rain. So (minor) flooding in the streets.
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Old 08-28-2019, 08:24 PM
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Per the European Meteorological Office's models, which I've found to be the most accurate of the GPS-HWRF-UKMET group, Palm Beach gets hit with a minor hurricane, but the real festivities don't happen until the storm hits the Gulf, and smacks Tallahassee as a very powerful storm. See for yourself: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/c..._north_america

Fast forward to Wednesday or so.

EDIT: The Gulf is a bathtub. There haven't been any storms to pull off its heat energy. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_sea_temp.php

Any organized tropical storm that gets there, that doesn't have shear or dry air to deal with, probably will intensify very rapidly. Like 3 or 4 categories in 24 hours rapidly, depending on eyewall replacement cycles and the like. Be careful.

Last edited by Gray Ghost; 08-28-2019 at 08:28 PM.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:22 PM
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It is a hurricane now.
There's a picture on the Weather Channel that still shows it as a tropical depression; how odd.
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Old 08-28-2019, 09:40 PM
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I'll laugh when this is over.


I used to like storms when I was a kid...or at least until I started being responsible for the damage.
They should call it Gatornado
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Old 08-29-2019, 06:30 AM
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My inlaws live in Ocala, and with luck, the worst they'll get is a lot of rain. I'm glad my daughter no longer lives in Orlando - it's too nerve-wracking for me to fret about her long-distance.
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Old 08-29-2019, 07:35 AM
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In Orlando, follow the Tom Terry Index. If the Channel 9 weather guy has his jacket on, it's all right. Don't panic until he's got his shirtsleeves rolled up and his tie loosened.
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:04 AM
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And the storm keeps on making that curve bringing me further into the cone. Please stop curving!
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Old 08-29-2019, 08:08 AM
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I've got relatives who just arrived in Dunedin. They recently bought a retirement property there. It's on the gulf side so I guess they won't get the brunt of the storm, but they are on/near the water. What can they likely to expect as far as storm impact? I doubt they have time to really prep because they only arrived in the past 24 hours. Should they just get back in the car and head out of the way for a while?
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:52 AM
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In Orlando, follow the Tom Terry Index. If the Channel 9 weather guy has his jacket on, it's all right. Don't panic until he's got his shirtsleeves rolled up and his tie loosened.
Mr. Fear Monger? No, thank you.

I'd rather sit in on Coffee Talks and listen to Tony Mainolfi. They tell you what's going on without doom-and-gloom-ing
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Old 08-29-2019, 01:14 PM
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I've got relatives who just arrived in Dunedin. They recently bought a retirement property there. It's on the gulf side so I guess they won't get the brunt of the storm, but they are on/near the water. What can they likely to expect as far as storm impact? I doubt they have time to really prep because they only arrived in the past 24 hours. Should they just get back in the car and head out of the way for a while?
Errr, maybe. After the storm crosses Florida and gets into the Gulf, it will strengthen and we don't know yet where it will go. If I were them, I'd go introduce myself to the neighbors and see what they have to say about it.


I'd rather it stay further south, myself, as I have folks in Palatka. (Sorry, Hypno-Toad).
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Old 08-29-2019, 02:07 PM
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The late Th AM model runs are now converging on Dorian turning once over FL or shortly after reaching the gulf and heading back NE.

It's going to be wet in N FL/S GA.

Last edited by ftg; 08-29-2019 at 02:07 PM.
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Old 08-29-2019, 02:11 PM
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I'm on the westcoast of the state, and the east coast of a peninsula, so lots of water on all sides. People are losing their damned minds here but I think we're going to be fine. I allowed myself to get all freaked out over Irma a couple of years ago (last year?)and I didn't so much as lose power (it was a gnarly storm but nothing worse than what we often get).
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Old 08-29-2019, 02:13 PM
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I'm nowhere near there but my wishes go out for the safety of everyone there. Even I'm affected in a very minimal way as I have a mail order that according to the tracking info is currently sitting in the USPS Miami distribution center. Hope it makes it out in time! I imagine at some point there will be no flights in or out of Miami for a while. It's interesting looking at a flight tracking application during an event like this and seeing a great big empty no-flight zone in the middle of the crowded skies.
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Old 08-29-2019, 07:55 PM
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I have family in the central Florida area and they are all well-prepared. Heck, some of them have now lived in Florida longer than I did; they're all seasoned pros by now.
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:18 PM
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I have family in the central Florida area and they are all well-prepared. Heck, some of them have now lived in Florida longer than I did; they're all seasoned pros by now.
What do you do to be well-prepared for a Category 4 storm in Florida other than leave?
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:42 PM
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Old 08-30-2019, 05:23 AM
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My sister has/had* a place on Vieques -- looks like it was spared the worst.

Brian
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Old 08-30-2019, 08:58 AM
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I have family in the central Florida area and they are all well-prepared. Heck, some of them have now lived in Florida longer than I did; they're all seasoned pros by now.
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What do you do to be well-prepared for a Category 4 storm in Florida other than leave?
If they're in Central Florida is certainly won't be a 4.

By the time it hits us it's supposed to be a 1...maybe a 2 at most.

When Irma hit us she was a 3 and that was after hitting Miami at almost a 5.
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Old 08-30-2019, 09:23 AM
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The last time a catagory 4 hurricane made landfall at Palm Beach, Florida.
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Old 08-30-2019, 09:36 AM
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For more details, read Zora Neale Hurston's Their Eyes Were Watching God. Granted, Lake O is diked now.
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Old 08-30-2019, 10:00 AM
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There is some concern about the dikes holding up in a major hurricane. And there are deep environmental issues with the dikes as well.
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Old 08-30-2019, 11:01 AM
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My folks are in West Palm, they're putting up the storm shutters tomorrow. They are far enough inland that storm surge isn't an issue, but it could be an interesting few days.
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Old 08-30-2019, 11:18 AM
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I'm near Gainesville.
My son and his wife live near Gainesville. They aren't looking forward to the weekend.
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Old 08-30-2019, 12:29 PM
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Yeah, it looks like it will still be a category 1 by the time it gets here.
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Old 08-30-2019, 06:57 PM
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I'm in Orlando(ish.) At least people are prepping now by getting gas and water and such. The stores are selling generators as fast as they come off the delivery trucks.

We have water and full tanks of gas. I'm going to help Ivylad move the garbage can and outdoor stuff into the garage/patio tomorrow. Then we wait.

I'd like to ask all my fellow Floridians if they can, to donate blood as part of their hurricane prep. The hospitals need to stockpile before the storm hits and some branches and buses will not be open.
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Old 08-30-2019, 09:30 PM
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I'm inland of Savannah, Georgia. After looking at NOAA's 8 pm forecast, I went to the store and bought minor supplies for a power outage (water, snacks, paper goods, hand sanitizer and baby wipes, etc.) Plus topped off the truck and filled a 20l gas can in case I need to crank up the generator. Even this far north and west, with Dorian predicted to be a Cat 2 as far north as Jacksonville, we'll probably have some minor flooding and moderate winds and power outages from downed trees.

But it looks like local hotels are booking up with evacuees, and the local equestrian arena has opened stall space for evacuated horses. (Free stall space, $8.00 for shavings, campsites available for $35/night - but locals are already lining up to sponsor costs for those in need. Holler at me for details if you need more information.) Given the change in the forecast, I wouldn't be surprised if the local fairgrounds becomes a staging area for utility repair crews again. (When Matthew hit, practically everybody staged here. Utility crews were at the fairgrounds, heavy equipment was parked at both local university campuses, the technical school, and one of the middle schools, the university recreation center/gym was barracks for state police, the university buses ferried utility workers from their campgrounds to their vehicles, etc.) We're in good shape here, but it looks like we will have a lot of visitors soon.

The big kids and I have an appointment to go donate blood on Tuesday. Three pints of O positive is the best we can manage, but it's that.
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Old 08-31-2019, 08:30 AM
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O+ is the most common so the most in demand. Thank you. We will never turn people away because of blood type.
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Old 08-31-2019, 11:31 AM
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This morning's track shows Dorian sweeping up the coast on a bee-line for South Carolina. Staying over the water like that is troublesome. It won't lose much power if it stays over water.
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Old 08-31-2019, 01:59 PM
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Yep, NOAA is predicting the eye will be due east of Jax on Wednesday morning and headed northeast.
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Old 09-01-2019, 01:06 PM
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What do you do to be well-prepared for a Category 4 storm in Florida other than leave?
You secure the house by boarding up windows, etc. You buy bottled water and batteries and paper towels and trash bags and food and secure them in the house. You do everything you'd do if there was gonna be a bad storm and you weren't gonna evacuate, basically.
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Old 09-01-2019, 01:07 PM
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It has made landfall in the Bahamas. Sustained winds 185 MPH, gusts to 220. Pressure of 911 and falling. 15-20 foot surge. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/261738.shtml

I don't see how tens to hundreds aren't going to die from this.

Still projected to make a NE turn. We'll see. Not a lot of data on the behavior of Cat 5 cyclones.
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Old 09-01-2019, 01:52 PM
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You secure the house by boarding up windows, etc. You buy bottled water and batteries and paper towels and trash bags and food and secure them in the house.
And anything outside that can become airborne projectiles needs to be either brought in or securely tied down.

I was in the New Orleans area from the summer of '83 to the summer of '88.
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:14 PM
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O+ is the most common so the most in demand. Thank you. We will never turn people away because of blood type.
So I'm A+, would they still want me? I'm not down there but in the midwest.
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:23 PM
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A+ is the second most common, but all blood types are needed. Preemies can only get O-.
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Old 09-01-2019, 08:36 PM
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I'm here down and to the right a bit of Dung Beetle (and very slightly down and to the right of Ivylass and to the right of T-Cups). My guess is that the eyewall is going to pass us, but not by much. So I might have to put the fence back up after the storm passes (again), but I won't be replacing windows.
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So I'm A+, would they still want me? I'm not down there but in the midwest.
Doesn't matter where you are. Either the blood banks can use your blood right now, or they'll need it to replenish stocks later on.
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Old 09-01-2019, 10:28 PM
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Charleston, South Carolina here.

The news has been worsening for a day or so. The governor pushed the panic button and ordered the evacuation. I'm outside of the zone just south of Lake Moultrie.

Still, looks like Wednesday and Thursday could be a bit hectic and wet here. Wish us luck.
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Old 09-01-2019, 10:50 PM
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I wish all of you well, in the path of this storm. I know how nailbiting it can be, trying to figure out if you should run, and when you did, wondering if you have a home to return to.

The latest models from the ECMWF suggest this storm is going to loiter for awhile between Florida and Grand Bahama. It is then projected to run over the outermost Outer Banks, as well as make a direct hit on Newfoundland as a fairly intense low. Not a hurricane, but it still looks in the model like a big enough storm to break things on Newfoundland.

I'd not read any advisories for Newfoundland so far, and the model run has been fairly consistent over the last few days, so I thought those of you in Newfoundland might want to know.
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Old 09-01-2019, 11:08 PM
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It has made landfall in the Bahamas. Sustained winds 185 MPH, gusts to 220. Pressure of 911 and falling. 15-20 foot surge. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/261738.shtml
.
And moving slowly. Whatever and whoever in the path have to take that beating for long hours.

Sister's home is in Jupiter, FL, near I-95. She and her husband work at the VA Hospital in West Palm, he'll be on duty there, she will be at the house with the lads (their colleges and workplaces have released themfor the week). She's looking warily at some areas still under construction further up the street in the development, where there are partially built structures and trailers that may become a projectile source.
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Old 09-02-2019, 01:25 AM
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Out of curiosity, suppose you found yourself in the wrong place and one of those 180mph winds grabbed you and stuck you against the side of the barn. Trapped there as the wind holds you in place, how much pressure would you be under?
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Old 09-02-2019, 06:17 AM
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Out of curiosity, suppose you found yourself in the wrong place and one of those 180mph winds grabbed you and stuck you against the side of the barn. Trapped there as the wind holds you in place, how much pressure would you be under?
Physicists and engineers, jump on in and correct me, but the basic equation for drag force on a body is: .5 * drag coefficient * Area * fluid density * (fluid velocity^2). Fluid density of air is ~1.2 kg/m^3, Drag coefficient for a standing human is ~ 1.2, frontal area of a standing human has been measured at .6-.7 m^2. Let's use sustained winds of 180 MPH, or about 80 m/s.

So: .5 * 1.2 * .65 * 1.2 * 80^2. I get about 3000 Newtons of drag force. Or the force of gravity on ~ 300 kilograms. 660 pounds over your body is going to stick you to quite a few things.

The pressure isn't that great. 660 pounds over a thousand square inches or so. It doesn't take a lot of Delta P to move things. Or break them.

Anyway, with apologies to Ron White, it's not so much that the wind's blowing. It's what the wind's blowing.
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Old 09-02-2019, 07:55 AM
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I'm here down and to the right a bit of Dung Beetle (and very slightly down and to the right of Ivylass and to the right of T-Cups).
And almost on top of me. I got beer, too. Come on over.

Wife's surgery is schedule for Wednesday morning. Not looking very likely. But it looks like I get to charge a plant-closing number instead of PTO for this week. The place (in Melbourne) was closed by flooding for a week after Irma, and this time the retention ponds and ditches are already mostly full from recent heavy rain. So we'll have to see. At least we don't have a storm surge worry this far inland.

Remember: Don't eat all your hurricane snacks too soon, or you won't fit into the little helicopter basket.
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Old 09-02-2019, 07:57 AM
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Georgia and South Carolina coasts under mandatory evacuation orders beginning at noon today, and contraflow* set to begin on interstate 16 out of Savannah tomorrow morning. Things are still looking okay for my area, but if Dorian doesn't take a right pretty soon, we'll bug out to the north end of the county Wednesday-ish. (40-50 mph winds + mobile home = nope. Plus Mama's house has a propane stove/oven, so... Coffee. And it's below the crest of a hill, which gives a lot of protection from winds. Not to mention, southern grandma. No chance of running low on food!)

Girl 2.0 will probably stay put - her townhouse is pretty solid. And The Boy will probably go stay with her, because his frat house is still a minor construction zone. I'll feel better if the girls have a resourceful guy handy, and I don't care if that sounds sexist. Gotta call the girls and tell them to fill bathtubs for flushing water... But 2.0 works at the grocery store, and classes at the university have been cancelled through Wednesday at least, so she'll probably be catching some overtime.

Anyway, off to declutter the yard and finish laundry. This is like being stalked by an alligator snapping turtle. Probably can't catch me, but it's gonna hurt if it does!

Good luck everyone in the path!

*The very best lesson taken from the Hurricane Floyd evacuation in 1999. Getting inland during Floyd was a nightmare. Crossover lanes were added to I16 and blocking arms - like at a railroad track - were added at the ramps. During evacuation, 16 becomes eastbound in all lanes. There are still plenty of surface roads for westbound traffic as needed.
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Old 09-02-2019, 10:42 AM
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Are you trying to counter his statement that central Florida isn't likely to suffer a category 4 hurricane? The hurricane you referenced occurred almost 100 years ago. And that's not central Florida.
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Old 09-02-2019, 10:46 AM
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Bear_Nenno is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2000
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There have been several recent hurricanes to hit Florida as Cat IV or V. But they usually fizzle out by the time central Florida feels their effects.
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