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Old 09-09-2019, 11:20 AM
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NC-09 Special


So that's going down this week. Pence is there today, Trump's there tomorrow. People are moving chips into the center of the table for this special election.

As you'll recall, the prior NC-09 election was invalidated due to questionable activity regarding absentee ballots on the part of a consultant. Bad news and the Board ordered a new election. Dan McCready was the D candidate in the former election and the R candidate has been replaced with State Senator Dan Bishop. Bishop's claim to national fame is as one of the sponsors of North Carolina's 'bathroom bill'.

So what do you think? The district was Trump+12 in 2016 but McCready lost in the original election by 905 votes. Will this one flip and go D for the first time in decades or will the R hold on? In either case, what - if anything - does it mean?
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Old 09-09-2019, 11:26 AM
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Who knows? Prediction markets have it at about 50-50, last time I checked. Coin flip.
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Old 09-09-2019, 11:31 AM
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Who knows? Prediction markets have it at about 50-50, last time I checked. Coin flip.
Even that is an interesting bit of information. Going from R+12 to even steven in North Carolina would be a pretty severe swing and possibly an indication that the swing that happened between the 2016 and 2018 elections is holding firm.

Special elections are often overrated for how they're indicative of electoral behavior but I do find them interesting. Just how interesting is the question.
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Old 09-09-2019, 11:47 AM
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Even that is an interesting bit of information. Going from R+12 to even steven in North Carolina would be a pretty severe swing and possibly an indication that the swing that happened between the 2016 and 2018 elections is holding firm.

Special elections are often overrated for how they're indicative of electoral behavior but I do find them interesting. Just how interesting is the question.
I agree they're interesting -- this seems like a particularly hard to predict race, both in that the last race was deemed to be unfairly decided, and that what limited information is out there right now looks very close. I look forward to seeing how it resolves (hopefully for McCready!).
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:46 PM
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Even that is an interesting bit of information. Going from R+12 to even steven in North Carolina would be a pretty severe swing and possibly an indication that the swing that happened between the 2016 and 2018 elections is holding firm.

Special elections are often overrated for how they're indicative of electoral behavior but I do find them interesting. Just how interesting is the question.
I think they're best looked at as a gauge of which side is more motivated to turn out. In 2017 there were a number of special House elections that were surprisingly close in deep red territory. In 2018, there was serious turnout from both sides, and the Dems won because there are more of us if we actually show up.

Trump's going to be speaking in Fayetteville tonight. Wonder if that'll rally his supporters or his opponents more. Guess we'll know by tomorrow night.
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:50 PM
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... Bishop's claim to national fame is as one of the sponsors of North Carolina's 'bathroom bill'.
...
I suppose we're going to hear from Republicans claiming again that Democrats keep talking about bathrooms.
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:56 PM
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Are they overrated? It seems to me that a win or loss result is overrated but the shift from the previous partisan lean result is of meaning.

Being close would be a meaningful result, better than the 6ish the generic tracker is running.
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Old 09-09-2019, 01:46 PM
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I commend the election board for refusing to certify a fraudulent election. I think it's kind of shady that anyone allows third parties to collect absentee ballots, they should go by US mail only. But the board had the integrity to recognize a fix when it saw it.

If the D wins this will be a great sign. I maintain that all elections hinge on Democratic turnout, since heavy Republican turnout is a given. Should D voters turn out in large numbers in an off year, great things happen in 2020.
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Old 09-09-2019, 01:58 PM
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I make no predictions. If Bishop wins by +12, I'll be pretty doomsday. If he wins by +6, I'll shrug and look at a silver lining. If he wins by +1, I'll be pretty pleased. If he loses, I'll be freakin ecstatic.
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Old 09-09-2019, 02:02 PM
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I commend the election board for refusing to certify a fraudulent election.
Don't forget that it was the SON of the cheating candidate - don't quibble, it happened by a guy he hired, he's responsible - that laid the law down on his old man.

That remains on hell of a story, there.
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Old 09-09-2019, 02:45 PM
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Don't forget that it was the SON of the cheating candidate - don't quibble, it happened by a guy he hired, he's responsible - that laid the law down on his old man.

That remains on hell of a story, there.
I read over the Dope thread on the case last week, and goddamn, dad's chutzpah. The son had told his dad that the dude they'd hired was a huckster. According to the Washington Post,
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Harris said he didn’t follow his son’s advice in part because John Harris was just 27 years old at the time and added that the younger Harris is “a little judgmental and has a little taste of arrogance and some other things. And I’m very proud of him and love him with all my heart.”
The judge paused the proceedings at this point so that the son could nut-punch his dad. Not that the son asked to, but rules are rules.

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Old 09-09-2019, 03:48 PM
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What is the over/under on Trump claiming the election is rigged?
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Old 09-09-2019, 03:55 PM
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What is the over/under on Trump claiming the election is rigged?
Since the polling is saying 50/50, I'd say the odds of Trump claiming rigged election are similar and entirely dependent on who wins.

But that's not really an over/under... so maybe it should be "What's the Over/Under on how many days it'll take Trump to claim rigged election if the Dem wins?"

For that bet I'd say 2 days.
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Old 09-09-2019, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Quoth LHoD:

I make no predictions. If Bishop wins by +12, I'll be pretty doomsday. If he wins by +6, I'll shrug and look at a silver lining. If he wins by +1, I'll be pretty pleased. If he loses, I'll be freakin ecstatic.
I'll be much bolder, and say that I'm 100% certain that Dan will win.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:20 PM
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Normally I would say its a long shot given that the district has gone Republican every year since the fall of the Dixiecrats, but I've got to believe that there are a bunch of Dems who are pissed off at the Republcans trying to steal the election and won't want them to get away with it. Should be interesting.
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Old 09-10-2019, 01:45 PM
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What time do the polls close? And how soon can we expect to see results posted?
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Old 09-10-2019, 02:20 PM
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I'll be much bolder, and say that I'm 100% certain that Dan will win.
I read this last night and was like, why on earth would anyone be so confident in their predictions, post-Trump? I'm glad I didn't post about it last night, though, because I just reread it, and I agree.
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Old 09-10-2019, 06:35 PM
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What time do the polls close? And how soon can we expect to see results posted?
Polls closed five minutes ago (1930 EDT). Results, I dunno -- I expect at least preliminary indications by morning, but methinks there may be extra-scrupulous quadruple-checking before any given polling precinct's results are reported, given the history. fnord
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:02 PM
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Aye; I just saw that they were closed a few minutes ago and came here to see if there was any news. Might be a few hours tho.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:12 PM
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NYT results tracker but less than a percent reported so far.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:21 PM
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If it's not called by 10, I'ma count that as a win, because it means the race is close in a district that used to be red, which mildly signals that the Dem surge is maintaining.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:22 PM
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Here's CNN's tracker: https://www.cnn.com/election/2019/re...ecial-election

They've already called NC-3 for the Republican (this was to replace long time Rep Walter Jones who died in February). NC-3 is a heavily Red District so the result was not really in question.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:25 PM
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I'm ecstatic. Kornaki on MSNBC just ran through McCready's performance today v. 2018, and he's exceeding 2018 by 2-3% in every district. With 20% in, McCready is ahead, 54% - Bishop 45%.

Looking good for McCready!!!
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:39 PM
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They just said that McCready improved his performance by 2.7% in the early voting. It's all down to election day turnout at this point. Heard it was heavy turnout for this election. This usually favors Dems, but who knows?

Currently 52% McCready to 47% Bishop with 24% of votes counted.
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:55 PM
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NC Board of Elections
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Old 09-10-2019, 07:55 PM
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Looks like Union County (just to the east of Charlotte-Mecklenberg Co) is going 60% to Bishop which is propping him up by about 10k votes with 65% reporting. Mecklenberg is a much larger population and, with only 1% reporting, has a heavy McReady lean so far.

Last edited by USCDiver; 09-10-2019 at 07:58 PM.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:07 PM
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With 88 of 210 precincts reporting:

Dan McCready (D) 59,013 (49.77%)
Dan Bishop (R) 58,884 (49.66%)

I don't know enough about the demographics/leanings in the various precincts, nor which precincts are in as of this report ... but in my experience, larger precincts tend to be more urban, lean more Democratic, and take longer to report. So this is looking very interesting indeed thus far, based upon ... well, nothing other than what's noted in this thread.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:16 PM
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Originally Posted by mjmlabs View Post
With 88 of 210 precincts reporting:

Dan McCready (D) 59,013 (49.77%)
Dan Bishop (R) 58,884 (49.66%)

I don't know enough about the demographics/leanings in the various precincts, nor which precincts are in as of this report ... but in my experience, larger precincts tend to be more urban, lean more Democratic, and take longer to report. So this is looking very interesting indeed thus far, based upon ... well, nothing other than what's noted in this thread.
Union County is heavily GOP and the second largest county in NC-09 after Mecklenburg County which is heavily D. NYT is reporting 82% of the vote in for Union and 14% of the vote in for Mecklenburg. Mecklenburg comprises part of Charlotte where they also had municipal elections today. This means turnout is probably higher there. All of this is enough to make it appear the GOP candidate could be in trouble.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:23 PM
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What is the over/under on Trump claiming the election is rigged?
Quote:
Originally Posted by USCDiver View Post
Since the polling is saying 50/50, I'd say the odds of Trump claiming rigged election are similar and entirely dependent on who wins.

But that's not really an over/under... so maybe it should be "What's the Over/Under on how many days it'll take Trump to claim rigged election if the Dem wins?"

For that bet I'd say 2 days.
I'm going with "before 9:00 a.m., if it's been called for McCready by 8:30." Also taking the Daily Double on the same tweet(s) explaining how he wasn't on the ballot and yesterday's in-person rally ... uh, didn't really count, for some reason.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:26 PM
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Union County is heavily GOP and the second largest county in NC-09 after Mecklenburg County which is heavily D. NYT is reporting 82% of the vote in for Union and 14% of the vote in for Mecklenburg. Mecklenburg comprises part of Charlotte where they also had municipal elections today. This means turnout is probably higher there. All of this is enough to make it appear the GOP candidate could be in trouble.
Thanks for the info/analysis! Like some comedian or another said, "I ain't superstitious, but I'm a little stitious, so ... fingers crossed."
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:35 PM
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Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren't the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year's election?
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:44 PM
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Ok, Union Co is at 100% reporting with about a 12,500 advantage for Bishop giving him a total lead of ~2500.

Meanwhile, McReady has a 7500 vote lead in Mecklenberg Co with 54% reporting. If that ratio continues in Mecklenberg, McReady should catch up pretty quickly.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:47 PM
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Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren't the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year's election?
They had to have primary elections earlier in the Spring and Summer, but still this ainít Parliamentary elections where you can vote to hold a general election and get things wrapped up in 6 weeks.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:47 PM
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Sidebar question: why has it taken so long to have this election? Weren't the dirty deeds done dirt cheap discovered a long time ago, right after last year's election?
There was some dickering/dithering/posturing, and I think there was a pretty thorough State Police investigation (source: uh, I think I remember reading that somewhere back then, maybe? <shrug>), and the NC State Board of Elections held hearings in mid-February. Unanimous NCSBoE vote to call for a fresh election happened later that week ... but that meant a fresh primary (happened in May), and a mandatory post-primary campaign period, IIRC.

I pulled some of that from this Wikipedia, which will surely be changing in the hours to come: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_N...ecial_election
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:49 PM
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Some states have E-days scheduled every three months. So getting through the trial, then the primary and giving enough time for campaigning it makes sense.
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Old 09-10-2019, 08:54 PM
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Yikes, McReady losing his lead in Mecklenberg as more precincts are reporting. This could be bad news...
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:03 PM
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Ah, well. It was always a long shot. McCready still did very well. It would have been nice to get this one, though.
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:15 PM
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Called for Bishop.
Some of the later reporting precincts in Mecklenberg Co must have been pretty small. The vote totals didn’t jump much from 54% to 76% reporting.
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:16 PM
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CNN doesn't want to call it for Bishop. I wonder how long they'll cling to false hope.
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:18 PM
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never mind, I'll save my celebrating for elsewhere

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 09-10-2019 at 09:18 PM.
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:18 PM
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With only 5 Mecklenburg precincts remaining:

Dan Bishop (R) 93,725
Dan McCready (D) 89,486
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:22 PM
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2 precincts left to report:

Dan Bishop (R) 94,984
Dan McCready (D) 90,824

file under: Moral Victory

CNN & AP have called it for Bishop.

Last edited by mjmlabs; 09-10-2019 at 09:22 PM. Reason: update w/calls from CNN & AP
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:26 PM
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In Nov 2018, with election fraudsters working against him, McCready lost by ~900 votes. Tonight, he lost by ~4,000, and you want to call that a "Moral Victory"? The trend lines appear to be heading in the wrong direction for the dems.
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Old 09-10-2019, 09:43 PM
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In Nov 2018, with election fraudsters working against him, McCready lost by ~900 votes. Tonight, he lost by ~4,000, and you want to call that a "Moral Victory"? The trend lines appear to be heading in the wrong direction for the dems.
It could be timing. It could be that special elections tend to get fewer votes, and it's cranky old white folks who vote most regularly.

Actually, scratch that. You're right. Republicans have nothing to worry about next year. Have a beer, relax!
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Old 09-10-2019, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
In Nov 2018, with election fraudsters working against him, McCready lost by ~900 votes. Tonight, he lost by ~4,000, and you want to call that a "Moral Victory"? The trend lines appear to be heading in the wrong direction for the dems.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Google
mor∑al vic∑to∑ry
noun
noun: moral victory; plural noun: moral victories

a defeat that can be interpreted as a victory on moral terms, for example because the defeated party defended their principles.
fnord!

Last edited by mjmlabs; 09-10-2019 at 10:06 PM. Reason: formatting/orthography
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Old 09-10-2019, 10:07 PM
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What was the principle he was defending by losing again, this time by a larger margin? And could we pretty-please-with-sugar-on-top get him back in 2020 to "defend his principles" again?
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Old 09-10-2019, 10:11 PM
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What was the principle he was defending by losing again, this time by a larger margin? And could we pretty-please-with-sugar-on-top get him back in 2020 to "defend his principles" again?
Probably not in the same district, no, given the likelihood that these intensely-gerrymandered federal congressional districts won't stand up in state court any better than the state districts did.

So enjoy Bishop while you got 'em.
  #48  
Old 09-10-2019, 10:30 PM
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What was the principle he was defending by losing again, this time by a larger margin? And could we pretty-please-with-sugar-on-top get him back in 2020 to "defend his principles" again?
Let's go with "not cheating to win elections" for $400, Alex.
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Old 09-10-2019, 11:22 PM
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Turnout was about 1/3 down on the mid-terms,
would be interesting to crunch some numbers of relative historic turnouts in special elections of dem vs repubs and run a simulation.
Would also be interesting to know how the turnout in this special election compares to others historically
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Old 09-10-2019, 11:56 PM
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In Nov 2018, with election fraudsters working against him, McCready lost by ~900 votes. Tonight, he lost by ~4,000, and you want to call that a "Moral Victory"? The trend lines appear to be heading in the wrong direction for the dems.
In Nov 2016, Trump won this district by 12%. Tonight, the Republican won by less than 2%. And this was after Republicans engaged in actual honest-to-goodness election fraud in 2018. Fraud. Illegally tampered with ballots. And yet you feel Republicans are the big, noble winners in all this?
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