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  #51  
Old 01-10-2019, 05:42 PM
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JKellyMap JKellyMap is offline
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I suppose there’s a bit of “only-Nixon-could-go-to-China” in this. Let’s say the electorate were 50/50 Rep-Dem. If almost no Rep voter would cross party lines because they really want go see a woman president, but some Dems would, then mathematically a female prez HAS to be a Republican (this model is simplistic, but might describe a real effect).
  #52  
Old 01-10-2019, 05:49 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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If Haley ran for president I have no doubt she'd be a strong contender.
I have plenty of doubt that she'd be a strong contender. I agree with BobLibDem that she's an empty suit, and has largely been window-dressing on the national stage. I really don't think she'd do well at all in a competitive national primary.

Feel free to bookmark this, and tell me how wrong I am in 2020 or 2024 if she actually runs when the opportunity presents itself.
  #53  
Old 01-10-2019, 07:34 PM
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Buck Godot Buck Godot is offline
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That's a very old poll taken right in the middle of the Republican Healthcare debacle. Things have changed for Ryan since then, including a giant tax cut for the rich that he can point to as an accomplishment.

He walked out of the speakership on his own two feet rather than being dragged out by a torch wielding mob, which reflects well on him, and given how the next two years are shaping up to be, I think his time in office will be viewed with rose colored hindsight,akin to that enjoyed by George HW Bush recently.

I also think he also does a pretty good job of straddling the various Republican factions. Not actually doing anything to oppose Trump, but also not leaping at the chance to join the Trump train. Also being very conservative in ideology with out the Frothing at the mouth vibe that is the characteristic of the Tea-party.
  #54  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:50 PM
Ashtura Ashtura is offline
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I have plenty of doubt that she'd be a strong contender. I agree with BobLibDem that she's an empty suit, and has largely been window-dressing on the national stage. I really don't think she'd do well at all in a competitive national primary.

Feel free to bookmark this, and tell me how wrong I am in 2020 or 2024 if she actually runs when the opportunity presents itself.
Umm ok. But she is not going to primary Trump in 2020. And predicting someone isn't going to be a nominee 6 years out isn't exactly Nostradamus level prognostication so I probably will forget by then.
  #55  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:13 PM
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Mijin Mijin is offline
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That is a low bar and yes she clears it, but anyone who would make such a silly executive order I think isn't presidential timber.
Huh? Since 2016 "presidential timber" means being a screaming baby.
In terms of silliness...I don't think there is a bar any more.

There still may be a bar for charisma, Trump has a kind of that.

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As well as showing what hypocrites liberals are when it comes to women and minorities. "We LOVE women and minorities. As long as believe what we believe and say what we say. If they don't, they're blithering idiot traitors to their sex and Uncle Toms."
They have already used it as a shield plenty of times. Criticism of Sanders or Conway is often tried to be framed as misogyny.
  #56  
Old 01-11-2019, 09:44 AM
Hari Seldon Hari Seldon is offline
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The problem is that there's literally nobody who can make that deal. Even if the Mortuary Attendant offers him a federal pardon, he's still looking at enough state charges to put him away for life even if he slims down to 239 pounds and develops some healthy muscle tone.
Putin could offer him safe haven.
  #57  
Old 01-11-2019, 02:23 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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That's a very old poll taken right in the middle of the Republican Healthcare debacle. Things have changed for Ryan since then, including a giant tax cut for the rich that he can point to as an accomplishment.
I had seen a more recent poll that had him down in the teens in the second half of 2018. (I couldn't find it now, which was why I went with the older poll.)
  #58  
Old 01-11-2019, 02:26 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Umm ok. But she is not going to primary Trump in 2020.
Well, no. I'm arguing against the notion that she'll be a great candidate in 2020 if Trump doesn't run, or in 2024 if she has to wait until then.

No, I don't expect you to remember in 2024. But if it does come to pass that Trump doesn't run next year, you might remember then.
  #59  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:25 PM
Ancient Erudite Ancient Erudite is offline
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Hypothetical. (Don't fight it.)

For whatever reason Trump does not run. Resigns, impeached and convicted, just tired of it ... whatever.

Who do you think gets the GOP nod? I'd bet on Nikki Haley. I'd bet against Pence.

Does it being not-Trump alter who you'd assess as the the best D choice?
John Kasich. A moderate man, he is in many ways an Anti Trump. This means he would likely get not from the Never Trumpers moderates who would have voted Republican if not for Trump himself.
  #60  
Old 01-14-2019, 04:35 PM
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After seeing Kasich's utterly pathetic performance in the 2016 election, why in the hell would the Republicans entrust their chances at controlling the government with his sad-sack mug? They have to know that running Kasich would result in the Democratic candidate winning.
  #61  
Old 01-14-2019, 06:48 PM
Dacien Dacien is offline
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Oh please. Can you name a single conservative that's criticized Haley? Cause all I've seen is criticism about her $50K drapes, and that wasn't by conservatives. She's well-liked.
iirc she's the politician with thie highest approval rating.

Edit: Approval as US Ambassador to the UN.

I think she could be a real broad-appeal GOP contender, and I for one am all on board.

Last edited by Dacien; 01-14-2019 at 06:50 PM.
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