View Poll Results: How long will the US government shutdown last?
Less than 1 week 3 2.83%
1 week to 1 month 28 26.42%
1 to 2 months 44 41.51%
2 to 6 months 22 20.75%
6 months to 1 year 3 2.83%
1 to 2 years 5 4.72%
2 years or more 1 0.94%
Voters: 106. You may not vote on this poll

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  #101  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:35 PM
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Hey, most of the federal teat-suckers have two kidneys, right? If money is that tight, they can sell one of them! #MAGA!



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  #102  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:44 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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President Trump, solving the kidney donation shortage too
  #103  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:53 PM
The Tooth The Tooth is offline
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Gah. The Christian Right. Is God love or what?
  #104  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:56 PM
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Gah. The Christian Right. Is God love or what?
If you want a good laugh, Google "Republican Jesus" and check out what comes up.
  #105  
Old 01-14-2019, 05:58 PM
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"And he said unto them, sorry, I can't help the blind see again - that's a pre-existing condition. Not covered."
  #106  
Old 01-14-2019, 08:12 PM
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Suffer the little children.
  #107  
Old 01-15-2019, 12:59 AM
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Aren't Federal employees something like 80% Democratic? And aren't most of them based in DC are, which will never vote Republican.

I don't think the shut down will cost Trump any electoral votes.
Most of them aren't in DC. Most of them are all across the country. Among them are the staff who keep all the federal courts running, like the court reporters I proofread transcripts for, who've told me their last paycheck, scraped up from repurposed court fees, will be on the 25th. Then the federal judiciary will grind to a near-halt. No big deal, you say? There's a helluva lot of civil litigation that's going to be impacted, and a helluva lot of large commercial and industrial companies who are going to see their ability to get through crucial litigation affected, and they are not going to be happy.

There's also a whole lot of people who depend on federal employees' wages and salaries to keep the family fed and a roof over their heads, and multiple small and medium sized businesses who depend on those employees' patronage to keep their own business going.

Big and small and in between, those businesses sure as hell aren't wholly or primarily owned and staffed by Democrats.

Not yet.
  #108  
Old 01-15-2019, 05:10 AM
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One: Federal employees are not overpaid. Federal employees are typically paid less than private sector workers with the same education and experience.
Two: They do not all work in DC. They are all over the country. The federal government is, after all, the national government, not just a bunch of patronage jobs in the capital.
Three: There are something like five federal contract workers for every government employee. Some of them are paid pretty well, but not all. That's a big chunk of the economy that just had the rug pulled out from under them.
Four: The services the government pays for, whether government employees or contractors, are often things the private sector can't do and shouldn't try to do. Those functions will disappear. Some of them, like the spy company Ed Snowden worked for, we probably won't miss so much. Some we really will.
Five: Beyond all this there is government spending on benefits, that subsidizes low private sector wages. Food stamps, Medicaid, Earned Income Credit--all these underwrite private business that underpay their employees.

If the GOP don't chicken out, this will be economically contractionary, on an awesome scale. This is fiscal policy that could have a directly destructive level of effect on the economy equivalent to an austere monetary policy. This is directly creating a high level of unemployment and a depression.

The backlash against the GOP is going to be so enormous, that in order to survive, they will have to win a civil war, and they will have to kill several of us for every one of them. What do you think all those memes about arming the common white man with military rifles were for? What do you think keeping bump stocks legal has been for? They will lose unless they can organize an army and outshoot disgruntled federal employees and contractors.

The Democrats refuse to give in to Trump's behavior. Trump and young Stephen Miller are digging in. Your party's best hope is that conservative Republicans turn on Trump; restart the government; send Miller packing; and probably impeach Trump just to be sure. Failing that, we are over the edge. There will be blood. By summer, the conservative's movement only hope may be that you have enough of the young snots who want to be Omar Mateen or Anders Behring Breivik on your side, and that anyone can herd those cats.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-15-2019 at 05:15 AM. Reason: one comma, one pronoun
  #109  
Old 01-15-2019, 09:25 AM
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LOL. You have a very vivid imagination. I didn't think anything would top the prediction about half the grocery stores going out of business, but hats off to you, you've done it.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 01-15-2019 at 09:26 AM.
  #110  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:21 PM
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I'm sorry, that post was really two different things: facts and conclusions. And I regret using "survive" metaphorically while segueing into a discussion of civil war.

But yes, short of resorting to active suppression, the GOP are in a world of electoral hurt.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-15-2019 at 03:22 PM.
  #111  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:24 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I'm sorry, that post was really two different things: facts and conclusions. And I regret using "survive" metaphorically while segueing into a discussion of civil war.

But yes, short of resorting to active suppression, the GOP are in a world of electoral hurt.
"electoral hurt" I can live with. That's a substantial improvement over having to "win a civil war", "kill several of us for every one of them", and "outshoot disgruntled federal employees and contractors."
  #112  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:31 PM
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Yes, of course because of people not getting their SNAP. What the heck do you think happens when people can't get food?
Uh, perhaps a bit of perspective. I know Trump is bad and all that, but SNAP recipients won't riot because their debit cards stop working. Any more than people rioted in similar situations before. Like the 1930s. Or wide swathes of America before SNAP started up. Lots of bad things will happen as a result of this shutdown, but SNAP riots won't be part of them.

BTW, the OP forgot something. This shutdown can't last for years. On Oct 1 ALL the federal spending sunsets. I don't think even the Trumplicans will relish not paying the military.....
or losing the federal money that flows to the red states.
Oh, there is another pressure point on the economy. Airline pilots have to get their certs renewed every 12 months. How long will airlines continue to function while losing 8% of their pilots every month from now on?
  #113  
Old 01-15-2019, 03:33 PM
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Uh, perhaps a bit of perspective. ...
That's all I'm asking for: a bit of perspective.
  #114  
Old 01-15-2019, 06:34 PM
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I saw the IRS has ~6,000 folks in Ogden Utah who are all out of work. Maybe Ditka knows a few of them? That's also a very red district for Congress. Romney got 77% there. Trump only got 50% due to the 3rd party guy.
  #115  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:36 PM
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I saw the IRS has ~6,000 folks in Ogden Utah who are all out of work. Maybe Ditka knows a few of them? ...
Not a one of them. I try to not associate with publicans.
  #116  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:39 PM
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Tweet of the day, if you're in the mood for levity in this situation.

https://twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/st...76767026741248
  #117  
Old 01-16-2019, 02:07 AM
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Wow. Dennis Miller, look out! Republicans got levity!
  #118  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:52 AM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is offline
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I saw the IRS has ~6,000 folks in Ogden Utah who are all out of work. Maybe Ditka knows a few of them? That's also a very red district for Congress. Romney got 77% there. Trump only got 50% due to the 3rd party guy.
and now they are forced to go to work without pay
  #119  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:45 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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They could always quit, and go find a new job doing something productive.
  #120  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:48 AM
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I'm sure some will quit for a better job. But it's not like you snap your fingers and find another job in a week or 2 unless you get very lucky. Meanwhile all the bills still need to be paid.
  #121  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:52 AM
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I'm sure some will quit for a better job. But it's not like you snap your fingers and find another job in a week or 2 unless you get very lucky. Meanwhile all the bills still need to be paid.
Utah has something like 3.2% unemployment. It's pretty much exactly like "you snap your fingers and find another job in a week or 2". Not really any luck required, and not even all that much effort, if you have any marketable skills at all.
  #122  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:53 AM
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They could always quit, and go find a new job doing something productive.
I am doing productive work. If you wish to live in a country that does not celebrate and preserve its own heritage that is more an indictment of you . I currently work at two National Parks. One celebrates the First Amendment - you Conservatives do support the Constitution, don't you? The other celebrates the beginning of the American Industrial Revolution - you Conservatives do like American Industry, don't you?
  #123  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:00 PM
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Utah has something like 3.2% unemployment. It's pretty much exactly like "you snap your fingers and find another job in a week or 2". Not really any luck required, and not even all that much effort, if you have any marketable skills at all.
I guess they could probably find some low paying job like retail . So that could cover part of the bills. But even with low unemployment rate if you have professional job you won't find an equivalent job that fast.
  #124  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:04 PM
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Iíve seen quotes from knowledgeable people who say that the shutdown wonít end until a catastrophe occurs. Either a strike shutting down all air travel nationwide, or a major plane crash directly attributable to lack of federal personnel.
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  #125  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:07 PM
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No, but the food stamp coffers are.

And in the near future run, if this fiasco goes on for long, the farmers who depend on government loans and handouts to plant crops won't be able to, and the silos will gradually empty if nothing is coming in.
Good. Bad farmers will go out of business and free up land and capital for good farmers, thereby increasing output. A momentary disturbance at worst.
  #126  
Old 01-16-2019, 12:10 PM
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If TSA people all walked off the job that would end it for certain. Not very likely to happen though. For a plane crash it might not be obvious right away what the cause is.
  #127  
Old 01-16-2019, 02:11 PM
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If Twitter shut itself down for the duration, how short would the duration be?
  #128  
Old 01-16-2019, 02:16 PM
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One thing to remember is it's only like a 25% shutdown, and about half of the 25% that is shutdown have recalled workers to do their jobs, so the shutdown is kind of the "shutdown that wasn't." This means it will have more limited effects, I think it's estimated it is negatively impacting the economy to the tune of about a $1bn a week, but in the scale of our economy that isn't as much as it sounds like. That's not the kind of impact that will be broadly felt.

SNAP benefits might be broadly felt, but some things to remember is they moved stuff around so the payment that went out in January is actually their benefit through March, so it will be a good while before people are really feeling the pain. Also, SNAP isn't the same for everyone. People receive varying amounts of SNAP benefits based on income and family size, some people who receive it, it's a nice cushion, but no one is starving without it. Even the people who are the bigger recipients likely still have money to buy food without SNAP, albeit their food security will be impacted. Don't get me wrong--this is a genuinely bad thing and a shameful thing for the world's richest country to have such a dysfunctional government and such a stupid President, but mass starvation probably is not on deck in any sort of real sense.

If I had to estimate where broad effects will be felt:

1. TSA workers are middling paid, I $30-40k/yr. Lot of them are hired out of High School. Unlike the six-figure NoVa Federal Govt professionals these people probably live closer to paycheck to paycheck. They won't want to give up their pension and benefits, but if they go long enough without pay simple economic reality will require them to just leave TSA and seek employment elsewhere. People in this income bracket cannot work if they can't afford gas or etc. There's probably a lot of variability in how much emergency savings the typical TSA checker has, but I doubt it's more than a month or so of expenses saved.

What happens when they permanently leave TSA is air travel gets worse and worse as more and more security lanes get shut down, and wait times for getting processed skyrocket. It will still be months before you start to see this in a serious way, though. Again--TSA agents have decent jobs for people with minimal education, and leaving means losing your pension/health benefits. It will start to happen though as these people are in an income bracket where they eventually won't actually be able to work (due to not being able to afford gas) without pay. While I personally find TSA wasteful and little more than security theater, the reality is Federal law/regulation requires TSA screening, so we can't just let flights go without it. So that would mean as availability of agents drops the only outcome is much slower security lines and angry travelers. This is the sort of annoyance that tends to get people riled up, it's akin to not properly plowing the roads on snowy days, something that often is the downfall of big city mayors.

2. BoP prison guards are actually in a similar situation to many TSA agents, and many BoP prisons are in remote, rural locations that require significant commutes to reach. As their savings drive up they will lose the actual ability to attend work, and deeply understaffed prisons will lead to a lot of bad publicity.

3. 800,000 people are not being paid anymore who used to be paid. If the economy lost 800,000 jobs that would be bad, and that's basically what happened here. Because they've only missed one paycheck, and many Federal employees are well paid, and have savings, the impacts of this aren't really meaningful yet, but they will become meaningful over time. Is it going to lead to the collapse of the economy? No. But in terms of economic impact it would, for example, be worse than GM and Ford closing their doors. Something to remember is there is no "upside" to not paying them, even for the "starve the beast" style of imbecilic libertarian. Mainly because the shutdown hasn't changed tax rates or tax collections, we're still collecting the money for these jobs, so it's not like government has "shrank." We're still taking the money out of the economy via taxes, but we're not putting it back in the economy via wages, so it's like a true loss to the economy. Again, not going to lead to the collapse of America, but shave points off GDP growth if it goes on for months? Yes, basic economics says this is so.

4. Right now the shutdown has had minimal impact on the stock market due to a robust economy, investors expecting it will end soon enough and etc. While the government is still mostly muddling along, as you slowly lose workers from the Federal workforce permanently, and as the effects of worse government services start to pile up, it will have run on effects that will eventually be reflected in stock indices, politicians generally hate to be saddled with blame for bad market numbers.

The big question is, March 1st the debt ceiling goes back into effect, and is set at whatever level the debt is at on that day (the ceiling was formally suspended in early 2018, with a stipulation it goes back into effect on 3/1/2019 at whatever level debt is at on that day), is Trump going to extend the shutdown battle into not signing off on an increase in the debt ceiling? If that happens the couple months of shut down will be small potatoes to what happens if we start defaulting on debt payments because of the Trump Tantrum.
  #129  
Old 01-16-2019, 06:47 PM
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Procedural question triggered by final paragraph above: if the president declares that the debt ceiling won’t be met, and thus default, is there anybody else in the government that can gainsay him, no matter how difficult or unlikely it is? I asked a similar question in a past thread (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...d.php?t=805443), but didn’t quite get answers.
  #130  
Old 01-16-2019, 09:39 PM
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Originally Posted by foolsguinea View Post
One: Federal employees are not overpaid. Federal employees are typically paid less than private sector workers with the same education and experience.
Two: They do not all work in DC. They are all over the country. The federal government is, after all, the national government, not just a bunch of patronage jobs in the capital.
Three: There are something like five federal contract workers for every government employee. Some of them are paid pretty well, but not all. That's a big chunk of the economy that just had the rug pulled out from under them.
Four: The services the government pays for, whether government employees or contractors, are often things the private sector can't do and shouldn't try to do. Those functions will disappear. Some of them, like the spy company Ed Snowden worked for, we probably won't miss so much. Some we really will.
Five: Beyond all this there is government spending on benefits, that subsidizes low private sector wages. Food stamps, Medicaid, Earned Income Credit--all these underwrite private business that underpay their employees.

If the GOP don't chicken out, this will be economically contractionary, on an awesome scale. This is fiscal policy that could have a directly destructive level of effect on the economy equivalent to an austere monetary policy. This is directly creating a high level of unemployment and a depression.

The backlash against the GOP is going to be so enormous, that in order to survive, they will have to win a civil war, and they will have to kill several of us for every one of them. What do you think all those memes about arming the common white man with military rifles were for? What do you think keeping bump stocks legal has been for? They will lose unless they can organize an army and outshoot disgruntled federal employees and contractors.

The Democrats refuse to give in to Trump's behavior. Trump and young Stephen Miller are digging in. Your party's best hope is that conservative Republicans turn on Trump; restart the government; send Miller packing; and probably impeach Trump just to be sure. Failing that, we are over the edge. There will be blood. By summer, the conservative's movement only hope may be that you have enough of the young snots who want to be Omar Mateen or Anders Behring Breivik on your side, and that anyone can herd those cats.
So now gun owners are Trump's brownshirts...

Well maybe you wouldn't be afraid of that if the Democrats hadn't so perennially made gun control a founding plank of their platform that gun owners were left with no practical choice but to vote Republican (Libertarian not being a viable option). If the Democratic Party hadn't made Donald Fucking Trump the lesser of two evils.
  #131  
Old 01-16-2019, 10:01 PM
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So now gun owners are Trump's brownshirts...

Well maybe you wouldn't be afraid of that if the Democrats hadn't so perennially made gun control a founding plank of their platform that gun owners were left with no practical choice but to vote Republican (Libertarian not being a viable option). If the Democratic Party hadn't made Donald Fucking Trump the lesser of two evils.
Wat makes you think all of us gun owners are automatically Republican? That we all refuse to countenance any and all regulation of our lethal weapons? I'm in Massachusetts, I have three guns, and I think our state regulatory scheme for guns actually needs some tightening.

Meanwhile, the federal judiciary inches ever closer to running out of money; they have about another week's worth to pay their employees, then our national justice system will grind to a near-halt.
  #132  
Old 01-16-2019, 11:30 PM
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So now gun owners are Trump's brownshirts...
I appreciate that you responded not to what I said but what you inferred.
Are Americans who own guns Trump's brownshirts? No.
Are the Gun Owners of America & the National Rifle Association Trump's brownshirts? Probably not, no.
Is right-wing media and especially social media literally trying to tell NRA, GOA, and indeed Americans who own guns that the Democratic Party are demons to be destroyed? Oh, yeah, that, that thing is happening. It sucks.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 01-16-2019 at 11:34 PM.
  #133  
Old 01-17-2019, 06:15 AM
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So now gun owners are Trump's brownshirts...

Well maybe you wouldn't be afraid of that if the Democrats hadn't so perennially made gun control a founding plank of their platform that gun owners were left with no practical choice but to vote Republican (Libertarian not being a viable option). If the Democratic Party hadn't made Donald Fucking Trump the lesser of two evils.
It's the lesser of two evils only in the imagination of frail white men.

Last edited by asahi; 01-17-2019 at 06:15 AM.
  #134  
Old 01-17-2019, 07:54 AM
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It's the lesser of two evils only in the imagination of frail white men.
Sadly, it was not just "frail white men" who voted for Trump. I even know WOMEN who voted for a man who grabs women by the pussy. I can't explain it but I know it happened.
  #135  
Old 01-17-2019, 09:01 AM
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Personally I am getting more scared.

It's looking more and more like we are at a point where of "events move things." Something bad is going to happen because of inadequate and overstretched staffing, a plane crash, a food poisoning outbreak, something, and that will be what catalyzes getting unstuck.

I am afraid people are going to die as a result, as the price, of a Trump Tantrum.
  #136  
Old 01-17-2019, 05:29 PM
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Sadly, it was not just "frail white men" who voted for Trump. I even know WOMEN who voted for a man who grabs women by the pussy. I can't explain it but I know it happened.
As my sister is fond of pointing out, 52% of white women voted for the Pussy-Grabber-in-Chief. It's...bizarre.
  #137  
Old 01-17-2019, 11:46 PM
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As my sister is fond of pointing out, 52% of white women voted for the Pussy-Grabber-in-Chief. It's...bizarre.
It isn't bizarre if you understand that some of the most intense, vicious misogyny comes from women who detest another female stepping outside her "proper" role. I recall when the first female jockey began riding at Suffolk Downs, and a woman in a class I was taking was dismissively sniping about how could she ever do well, she'd be too worried about breaking her nails, among other such stereotyped nasty things.

Is it jealousy? Fear of being pushed out of their own comfortable rut? Brainwashed so thoroughly in gender stereotypes they can't accept a woman who steps outside of all that? I don't know, but it's a real thing. Pile that on top of the relentless campaign of demonization against Hillary Clinton, and there's a goodly chunk of that 52 percent.
  #138  
Old 01-18-2019, 12:11 AM
Martin Hyde Martin Hyde is online now
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Some of it is also that a lot of women respect and enjoy traditional family gender roles, and feel like liberals are attacking that by promoting concepts that suggest all gender is just a social construct, that there's no differences between men and women, that women who stay at home and raise children are not living their best lives etc.
  #139  
Old 01-18-2019, 05:20 AM
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Some of it is also that a lot of women respect and enjoy traditional family gender roles, and feel like liberals are attacking that by promoting concepts that suggest all gender is just a social construct, that there's no differences between men and women, that women who stay at home and raise children are not living their best lives etc.
Yes, Limbaugh and Fox News and co have been successful in portraying this mostly false narrative to conservative old folks.
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