Straight Dope Message Board

[GuanoLad]

I was quite impressed by Justin Trudeau's diverse new Cabinet and his dynamic attitude, but it was way too early to tell if his youthful enthusiasm was going to follow through on actual results.

But there must be some indicators on how he's managing things. When Nathan Fillion tweeted his support today, there were some cynical responses, but that's Politics, not everybody is going to be happy, so now I'm wondering what the facts are, or at least the word on the street.

We'd all like our next Government to move away from the Old Boys Club and be something new and bring real change, but is Canada going to be the example we want it to be? 1

[wolfpup]

A couple of things, in case you haven't seen them ...

I started a thread some time ago in a kind of euphoric celebration of Trudeau's first few days and, specifically, his new Cabinet. It seemed to me that the bright and accomplished progressive young people he had appointed were a stark contrast to the old-school reactionaries that were typical of Harper.

Some 100 days later, I think approval and optimism are still running high. There's a CBC article here. Trudeau and his Cabinet recently convened at a three-day retreat on the east coast in which one of the key participants was Michael Barber, a highly regarded former civil servant in Britain who has laid out a blueprint for what he calls the agenda for 21st century governance, the three pillars of which are environment, diversity, and democratic renewal. There's no doubt that Trudeau's agenda is an ambitious one. 2

[GuanoLad]

Cool. Okay, I guess it's still too early to tell, and they're all waiting to see what happens next. But no big complaints is an achievement in itself. 3

[Elendil's Heir]

Glad to see the honeymoon is continuing, more or less. As a progressive neighbor to the south and occasional visitor to Canada, I wish the new PM and his team very well. 4

[Hari Seldon]

He hasn't done much that impinges on my life. So far, I have to say he seems like a decent sort, but hasn't done much. Maybe that's all I want in a politician.

The one promise he has nearly fulfilled (it has taken longer than predicted) is open up the borders to middle eastern refugees. I wonder how they felt, any who arrived here the other night when the wind chill hit -41 (that's -42F). 5

[wolfpup]

Originally Posted by Hari Seldon

The one promise he has nearly fulfilled (it has taken longer than predicted) is open up the borders to middle eastern refugees. I wonder how they felt, any who arrived here the other night when the wind chill hit -41 (that's -42F).

CBC actually detailed about a half dozen election promises carried out so far. But on the subject of weather, please don't give our American friends who may never have been up here the impression that we breathe liquid nitrogen! The temperature in the Toronto area almost precisely coinciding with the NBA all-star weekend was somewhere around 25 degrees below normal, which was bad enough in giving our American visitors the wrong impression! It is now back up again to just above freezing where I live. Parts of southern Ontario are farther south than parts of California, and some of it is getting to be really good and expanding wine-growing country. It had to be said! 6

[Elendil's Heir]

Looks like the PM is receiving a red-carpet welcome at the like-minded Obama White House: http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/09/politi...sit/index.html 7

[wolfpup]

Major state dinner going on right now. Sounds like good eats, wish I was there.

But yes, a number of news organizations including CBC and CNN have remarked on the close ideological alignment and close relationship between Obama and Trudeau. The previous Harper government was so hostile to the Obama administration that apparently the US ambassador was shunned by the Harper minions and practically locked out of government access.

This is all going to end next January with the new US administration. If it's Hillary, it might not be too bad a challenge. If it's any of the Republicans the major problem is going to be managing the American refugees. 8

[Elendil's Heir]

Nice photo album of the Trudeau visit to Washington here: http://www.aol.com/article/2016/03/1...pLid%3D4240869 9

[GuanoLad]

Thought I'd bump this up and check in. How is Canada going now? You may be getting an influx of new immigrants very soon. 10

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

A virtue-signalling standpatter who actually is what the Right claimed Obama was. 11

[GuanoLad]

Um. Okay. I don't what that means. 12

[MrDibble]

Originally Posted by Qin Shi Huangdi

A virtue-signalling standpatter who actually is what the Right claimed Obama was.

Originally Posted by GuanoLad

Um. Okay. I don't what that means.

He's saying Trudeau is a fake-Lefty hardass. I think.
"Virtue signalling" means that he's saying all the right things to seem Left/liberal/'woke' (but implies it's all front, no conviction), and standpatter means "resistant to change" - in a stubborn rather than Conservative sense. 13

[Dr. Drake]

He's getting some flak for caving on environmental issues (e.g. supporting pipelines), which is deserved, and for his relations for First Nations. I think the expectations of what he could do re: First Nations is unreasonable, and he's largely moving things forward as fast as is possible. A couple of minor scandals, but nothing big.

Overall, he's still doing well.

And as a reminder, we didn't even start our campaign until your presidential primary campaigns were well underway, and this month he's been in office about a year already. 14

[LSLGuy]

IOW, he's apparently accomplishing some of the easier stuff he said he'd do and waffling or backtracking on the harder stuff.

So once again reality demonstrates that chief executives of modern representative democracies can't govern like the Leftist/Rightist dictators their supporters seem to crave and their opponents seem to fear. I'm shocked. Shocked I say! 15

[Miller]

Originally Posted by Qin Shi Huangdi

A virtue-signalling standpatter who actually is what the Right claimed Obama was.

...he's Kenyan? 16

[LSLGuy]

Muslim?
Perhaps not born in the USA?
All black, not just part?

The mind boggles at the nearly endless possibilities.

With apologies to Prof Farnsworth: That's the wonder of being a fantasist! Everything's possible once you dream it (up). 17

[CarnalK]

Here's what Trudeaumeter says:
Tracking 219 campaign promises:
103 not started yet
62 in progress
34 achieved
20 broken 18

[BrotherCadfael]

Well, Doonesbury is starting to look a little long in the tooth...

What? 19

[Cat Whisperer]

Originally Posted by Dr. Drake

He's getting some flak for caving on environmental issues (e.g. supporting pipelines)<snip>

If he's going to start supporting pipelines, then this Albertan might start feeling a little more cordial towards Trudeau II. Alberta's in a terrible recession, and a Trudeau is Prime Minister - this didn't go well for us last time. 20

[CarnalK]

Originally Posted by Cat Whisperer

If he's going to start supporting pipelines, then this Albertan might start feeling a little more cordial towards Trudeau II. Alberta's in a terrible recession, and a Trudeau is Prime Minister - this didn't go well for us last time.

Well you'll be comforted to know that one of the promises listed as "broken" on the Trudeaumeter is to phase out fossil fuel industry subsidies. 21

[BigT]

Originally Posted by CarnalK

Here's what Trudeaumeter says:
Tracking 219 campaign promises:
103 not started yet
62 in progress
34 achieved
20 broken

I see a distinct lack of "attemped but failed" in that list. That makes me suspicious of the "broken" tally. There is a difference between breaking a promise and not being able to fulfill it. 22

[DWMarch]

I like him. Can you imagine any previous Prime Minister at the Tragically Hip's final concert, looking as if they even remotely belonged there? Trudeau brings a freshness to Canadian politics that is much needed after staid, stoic, stale Harper. I don't think the running tally of promises kept or broken is as important as the fact that he is going to do his best to leave this country in better shape than he found it. 23

[Gorsnak]

Originally Posted by BigT

I see a distinct lack of "attemped but failed" in that list. That makes me suspicious of the "broken" tally. There is a difference between breaking a promise and not being able to fulfill it.

One promise listed as broken is the 'admit 30k Syrian refugees by January' promise. While they did miss the arbitrary deadline, I have a hard time seeing an impartial commentator viewing that as a broken promise. 24

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by BigT

I see a distinct lack of "attemped but failed" in that list. That makes me suspicious of the "broken" tally. There is a difference between breaking a promise and not being able to fulfill it.

You do have to wonder about the sincerity of a promise that within less than a year allegedly can't be fulfilled.

The promise "Guarantee that First Nation communities have a veto over natural resource development in their territories" is something any intelligent observer would have known is completely impossible, for the simple reason that there is no clear agreement as to what constitutes the totality of "territories" belonging to First Nations - some things clearly are, but there are varying degrees of claim and contest over any number of other territories, and offering a complete veto to anyone is kind of stupid.

The plan to accept 25,000 government-sponsored Syrian refugees by the end of 2015 was obviously a logistical impossibility and only a complete sucker would have thought otherwise.

If a promise can't be done but was insincere to start with, how does one rate that?

Originally Posted by DWMarch

I don't think the running tally of promises kept or broken is as important as the fact that he is going to do his best to leave this country in better shape than he found it.

The same thing can be said of the other 22 Prime Ministers who've served. All have tried to make Canada a better place. Not one of them embarked upon a progarm where they were honestly trying to make Canada a worse place. Some were successful, some were not, some a mix of the two, and some weren't in office long enough to do anything. "Doing their best to leave this country in better shape" is not a point of admiration, it's to be expected. 25

[Dr_Paprika]

Trudeau is doing okay. Still pretty popular. I knew him in college and he is genuinely principled for a politician. The Liberals have this far avoided major gaffes and talked a good game. 26

[Leaffan]

Carbon tax. 27

[Hari Seldon]

Originally Posted by Leaffan

Carbon tax.

To expand on that cryptic comment, he has announced that every province will have to institute either a cap-and-trade system or a carbon tax and that if any province refuses, he will institute a carbon in their province. IMHO, this is extremely positive. Needless to say, the provinces that do not already have such a scheme in place or in the works (only Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia do) are up in arms over this "job-killing initiative". Not that there is any evidence it kills jobs (since it also creates some), but it makes a good line. The other thing he has done is go back to government fact-collecting and also a sane science policy. The previous minister in charge of science policy was a creationist chiropracter who was opposed to what he called "curiosity-driven" research, that is the kind that makes fundamental breakthroughs.

So far, the motion is slow but at least in the right direction and I am moderately happy with him. Of course, being better than his predecessor is a low bar to clear, but he has with ease. 28

[Raygun99]

Alberta has a carbon tax plan in the gestational stages, FWIW. 29

[Leaffan]

It amazes me how we all view things through a different lens. 30

[RickJay]

Well, the words "carbon tax" aren't much of an argument. What's wrong with it? Why is in inferior to other revenue options? What specific market distortion a does it create? Are they offset by positive effects on market failures? 31

[Leaffan]

My electricity bill last year was $7,000. That's what's wrong with a fucking carbon fucking tax.

ETA: Thank you Hydro One! 32

[RickJay]

So you are aware, I trust, that your electricity bill wasn't $7,000 because of a carbon tax, right? 33

[Raygun99]

Mine was about $800. What the hell were you doing? Not to mention that a carbon tax is fairly unlikely to have much of an effect on *hydroelectrically* generated power. 34

[RickJay]

Some people are getting completely screwed with delivery charges. The system is insane.

Inicdentally, Ontario's electricty is mostly not produced by hydroelectric sources, contrary to popular belief. Most of it is generated by nuclear energy. I know it's called "Hydro One." and we used to call it "Ontario Hydro," and people call electricity "Hydro" for some reason, but your electricity is largely thanks to uranium, assuming you live in Ontario. The "Hydro" thing is an artifact of history.

Obviously, a carbon tax would still affect one's electricity bill, since SOME of it is generated with fossil fuel, albeit not much - less than ten percent - and electricity is basically fungible, it's not like you can decide you want more electrons from nuclear. Having said that, one's electricity bill isn't necessarily all that connected with how much electricity you use or any sort of logic that related to the customer, which is why we have examples of Hydro One customers who used no power at all getting bills in the hundreds of dollars, or people living across the street from each other using the same amount of power and being billed completely different amounts. Ontario's electricity system is a financial and organizational disaster of epic proportions, many years in the making.

What that has to do with a carbon tax is basically nothing. Carbon taxes can have disruptive effects of the economy, and I think it is reasonable to mistrust the Wynne government about basically anything at all, inasmuch as any sense of honesty or principle was abandoned quite a long time ago. Having said that, the pure economic argument for shifting tax burden to carbon, and away from other things, is extremely solid. You can mess up the implementation of it fifty thousand ways, but in principle it's actually very wise. 35

[Ludovic]

Originally Posted by Hari Seldon

he will institute a carbon in their province.

Isn't "instituting a carbon in their province" what Trump claims to do with impunity? 36

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by Leaffan

My electricity bill last year was $7,000. That's what's wrong with a fucking carbon fucking tax.

ETA: Thank you Hydro One!

My God.

This really does sum up what is wrong with the electorate, when educated people can make comments like this.

It is to laugh. 37

[drm]

Originally Posted by Raygun99

Mine was about $800. What the hell were you doing? Not to mention that a carbon tax is fairly unlikely to have much of an effect on *hydroelectrically* generated power.

My parents house and Cottage combined was around 7000. The delivery charges to the cottage were pretty substantial. As for the house, they run a huge AC unit and heater in my dads office (he has elderly patients) that accounts for a large chunk. Long story short, maybe theirs is a similar scenario.

As for our little house in the city, we are well under 100 per month and we have bullfrog which apparently inflates it. 38

[leahcim]

I, for one, am getting this sweater to wear to the office on (American) election day. 39

[Ike Witt]

No doubt that Trudeau is winning the social media battles with his shirtless photobombs. And at this point he has had more vacation time since he was elected than I have had in the last 5 years. 40

[Larry Mudd]

Originally Posted by Leaffan

My electricity bill last year was $7,000. That's what's wrong with a fucking carbon fucking tax.

ETA: Thank you Hydro One!

Wait, what? I have a hard time understanding this. How do pay more than seven times per year than I do for a four-member family in a detached house? If it's hydro, how do you expect a carbon tax to impact you?

I moved to Alberta just in time to help elect an NDP government, so I am used to hearing a lot of irrational things about the concept of a carbon tax, but hell our household costs are less than a hundred bucks a year more and we qualify for a 100% rebate on that. Yet my Facebook feed is full of people furious with the tax - it's perplexing. 41

[Kimstu]

Originally Posted by Ike Witt

And at this point he has had more vacation time since he was elected than I have had in the last 5 years.

Wow, you've had less than 30 days total vacation over a 5-year period? That sounds pretty brutal for you, but it doesn't suggest to me that the Canadian PM is slacking off.

I see from CarnalK's "Trudeaumeter" link that his objectives include increasing access to parental leaves and flexible working schedules. I hope some combination of that will succeed in helping you regain a healthier work/life balance! 42

[Leaffan]

Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic

My God.

This really does sum up what is wrong with the electorate, when educated people can make comments like this.

It is to laugh.

You think a carbon tax will have no effect of the cost of electricity?

I beg to differ. 43

[Leaffan]

Originally Posted by RickJay

So you are aware, I trust, that your electricity bill wasn't $7,000 because of a carbon tax, right?

Yeah. It's because of the green energy program, which is also a fucking disaster. 44

[RickJay]

Okay, but when asked by you opposed a carbon tax, you cited your electricity bill. They're different issues. The impact of a carbon tax on your electricity bill would be very small.

I hate to point this out but a carbon tax makes sense, and what made even more sense was Stephane Dion's "Green Shift" - a full scale movement of taxation away from things like income tax and sales tax and towards carbon tax. The use of fossil fuel is a market failure because of the externality of pollution. Fossil fuel use is quite literally the most logical thing the government COULD tax. Taxing people for the costs they actually create for society is one of the most economically logical things a person can do.

In fact, this is precisely the opposite of your electricity bill problem. One of the problems with the power bills Ontarians are paying is that the connection between how much electricity you use and how much you pay is, shall we say, sketchy. I am sure you've read the news stories of people getting hefty bills when they had no electricity at all, while people who use electricity in other places get lower bills. Charging people an amount that is not immediately and logically connected to their usage of the system, and indirectly charging people for other people's electricity use, as in fact happens in Ontario, is an outstanding way to waste billions of dollars in money, incentivize waste, and fail to incentivize conservation. 45

[Leaffan]

Fossil fuel tax may make sense if you live in an area with decent public transportation. My house is in an area with no public transportation. I work in an area with no public transportation. I have no options. Anyway, it's all just nickel and diming me to death, and I'm bitter for other reasons at this point in life.

(And it has nothing to do with the hockey game last night.) 46

[RickJay]

Originally Posted by Leaffan

Fossil fuel tax may make sense if you live in an area with decent public transportation.

A fossil fuel tax makes sense, full stop. IMHO, it should be generally offset by tax breaks elsewhere.

Do you use more fossil fuel than someone in a big city? Yes, and you should pay for it. A central tenet of good economic policy is that one should pay for what one uses, and that a situation where other people pay for what you use - an externality - is inefficient. (Conversely, you would ideally also be paid, or subsidized, for creating a positive externality - an example being lower WSIB rates for companies with good safety records and programs.)

If you live in the sticks and have to drive more, you should pay for the extra fuel you use, just as a person in the city has to pay more for the land they live on. 47

[Elendil's Heir]

A New Yorker humorist warns of the risk of increased American immigration due to a Trudeau photo: http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borow...refugee-crisis 48

[LSLGuy]

I wonder how Trump and his followers would react if Canada built a wall? 49

[Chimera]

Originally Posted by LSLGuy

I wonder how Trump and his followers would react if Canada built a wall?

And it was paid for by ex-pat Americans? 50