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  #1501  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:35 AM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Cuomo has been advocating widely testing to see who is already immune by now and allowing them to be part of the first cohort to return to work. Many of those found will not ever have been tested by swab or even presumptively diagnosed. Some will not have even suspected they had COVID-19; some may never have had any symptoms.

His plan not only would not only be a great way to restart the economy with the lowest risk pool; it would provide the modelers with one of the critical missing inputs of how the undocumented and not very ill portion is, and thus how fast the pool of "Vulnerable" drops, and how quickly the pool of "Resolved" grows for the models. IF it turns out that with this testing there are a large number of undocumented asymptomatic to mild infections for every one currently identified, maybe ten to one who knows, THEN a plan in which transitions to using more focused social distancing as the specific tool is one that can be applied with more confidence and one that prevents the morbidity and mortality of the current "isolate them all" approach.
Do medical personnel have access to enough tests now so that they can carry out widespread testing. I can't seem to keep up with all the bonfires currently burning/smoldering/ready to burst into flame.
  #1502  
Old 03-26-2020, 09:58 AM
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Cuomo has been advocating widely testing to see who is already immune by now and allowing them to be part of the first cohort to return to work.
Is he talking about antibody tests? Are those available yet, and shown to be accurate?
  #1503  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:12 AM
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The widespread testing for evidence of having HAD the infection is not the swab test (using reverse PCR); it is testing for antibodies (also referred to as "serologies" or "IgG and IgM"). Weeks ago the CDC briefing described these tests as ready to roll out within the week. No idea what happened after that. It's a completely different platform and getting enough done to be able to state that X% of 20 to 30s and Y% of 30 to 40s (etc.) in NYC show evidence of having been infected, compared to A% and B% of identified cases, does not take tens of thousands of tests run, any more than a poll needs tens of thousands to estimate voting results, at least within some broad confidence intervals.

Googling I can find from a week ago this Science mention that they have already been used in studies on small scales.
Quote:
How many COVID-19 cases have gone undetected? And are those who had mild cases of the disease—perhaps so mild they dismissed it as a cold or allergies—immune to new infections? If so, they could slow the spread of the burgeoning pandemic.

Answering those questions is crucial to managing the pandemic and forecasting its course. But the answers won’t come from the RNA-based diagnostic tests now being given by the tens of thousands. They look for the presence of viral genes in a nose or throat swab, a sign of an active infection. But scientists also need to test a person’s blood for antibodies to the new virus, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Such tests can detect active infections, too, but more importantly, they can tell whether a person has been infected in the past because the body retains antibodies against pathogens it has already overcome.

Labs and companies around the world have raced to develop antibody tests, and a few have been used in small studies and received commercial approval, including several from China. But so far, large-scale data from such tests—for example showing what fraction of people in the hard-hit city of Wuhan, China, might now be immune—is still lacking or at least not public. ...

... Widespread antibody testing could also provide key data for efforts to model the course of the pandemic. Current predictions vary so widely, causing some scientists to question the need for severe containment methods such as lockdowns and social distancing. By indicating how much of the population is already immune because of mild infections, antibody data could offer a key to how fast the virus will continue to spread.

Such data could inform practical issues such as whether and how to reopen schools that have been closed. Relatively few cases have been diagnosed among children, but it isn’t clear whether that’s because they don’t get infected or because their infections are generally so mild that they go unnoticed. Testing children for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies should resolve that. ...
Also needed is more conclusive proof that children are minimally contagious when they have COVID-19. If we start with 24% of the American population functionally in the Resolved bucket (not spreading it) the model would result a completely different course and some actions are completely needless or even harmful.

Last edited by DSeid; 03-26-2020 at 10:13 AM.
  #1504  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:17 AM
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Although.. if you want to find out if a person is safe to return to the workforce, you'd need an antibody test to prove they've had it, *and* a PCR test to prove they are no longer infectious, right?
  #1505  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:51 AM
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Although.. if you want to find out if a person is safe to return to the workforce, you'd need an antibody test to prove they've had it, *and* a PCR test to prove they are no longer infectious, right?
No.

Current standard already is to consider safe to return once 72 hours of fever-free and symptoms consistently improving. I don't know exactly what data that recommendation has been based off of. Nevertheless for other viral infections it is established that some low level viral shedding long outlasts the period of meaningful contagiousness. The standard for influenza in comparison is safe to return after 24 hours of fever-free even though it is documented that some viral shedding can last for up to ten days.
  #1506  
Old 03-26-2020, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Cuomo has been advocating widely testing to see who is already immune by now and allowing them to be part of the first cohort to return to work.

I'm curious as to how that works when there's more than one strain of the virus and there have been folks who have recovered and then gotten re-infected.

In other news, the LDS Church's top leadership closed all of their temples worldwide.
  #1507  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:00 AM
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The national bloodbank here in the Netherlands is supposed to be testing all donations on antibodies this week. If they actually pull it off, it should give an idea of the spread of the disease by the end of the week (based on 10000 data points).

We are pretty much testing only people that are sent to hospital. That's why the "mortality rate" is close to 5%. These rates are meaningless, as is the 10 % rate in Italy... but still people keep throwing it around.

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  #1508  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:03 AM
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Nicely done with a very important caveat - social distancing (in its various options) is the only tool in our toolkit but NOT the only something that stops it or slows it down.

There is the joke of a married couple who are both scientists who send out a family newsletter 3 months after the birth of their first child, which they titled "Experiment Number One" and included in it a graph and analysis of the growth of their child to date: "To date Experiment Number One has doubled in rate over 3 months and has a current weight of 6.2 kg. Doubling its weight every three months we therefore project that by 10 years of age Experiment Number One will weigh roughly 6,816,972,092,211 kg."

Of course the math of modeling deaths at any particular day into an epidemic is not quite so straightforward as continuing its initial curve up forever.

The reality is that we have no real knowledge of what the curve would look like in absence of applying any of the social distancing tools because we have no real idea of the some basic critical inputs that go into the models. Will this baby keep growing at this rate forever, or begin to slow down, when? With babies we know the doubling rate progressively slows down after 3 months; the experiment has been run with others of the species before. We've never had a baby of this exact species before and we don't know too much about it yet. Lacking that information we still have to act and the least poor choice is to at least slow it down as best we can until we have better information and as we increase our surge capacity from its current fairly pathetic levels.
What, R0 is going to suddenly start working differently?

Look, the rate of spread of this thing is like the rate of spread of any other disease. It's all about how many new people each infected person infects. That's R0. Absent social distancing, that's going to be a constant until enough people have developed a resistance to the disease already to reduce the number of uninfected people each infected person runs into. To noticeably reduce R0 that way, a good portion of the population has to have developed resistance.

We're nowhere near that point yet.

And until we are, the exponential rate of growth will continue as before, modulo the extent that social distancing reduces the number of contacts each infected person has.

So yeah, I think I can extrapolate along an exponential curve for the next freakin' two and a half weeks. Based, as before, on the assumption that social distancing is only minimally effective - and using the difference in actual deaths from what the exponential curve predicts as a measure of the effectiveness of social distancing.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 03-26-2020 at 11:03 AM.
  #1509  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:16 AM
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If New York's confirmed cases were ranked it would come in at number 7


China Mainland 81,218
Italy 69,176
United States 55,330
Spain 47,610
Germany 34,009
Iran 27,017
New York 26,348
One country I've been wondering about is Russia, from which little has been heard (at least in the mainstream US press) since the crisis began. It appears their response, or lack of one, has been strikingly similar to that of the US in the early days of the epidemic: mostly claim the outbreak is under control and deny there is an issue. Well, Russia (meaning Putin) apparently is coming round to the notion that they may have a problem:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/europ...ntl/index.html

The article mentions that Putin has declared next week to be a paid stay-at-home holiday, but that seems a laughably tepid response and otherwise there seems to be no long-term plan to deal with the outbreak as yet.
  #1510  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:18 AM
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I am tired of this virus, can't hear about it anymore. And it is just the beginning
  #1511  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:19 AM
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Deaths per million per state in the US as of this morning (death numbers from Worldometer, state populations from Wikipedia). Just the top ones, with country numbers for perspective.

Italy : 124
Spain : 89
Andorra : 39
Iran : 27
Netherlands : 25
Switzerland : 22
France : 20
New York : 19.8
Belgium : 19
Washington : 17.3
Cayman Islands : 15
Louisiana : 14
Luxembourg : 13
Vermont : 12.8
Wales : 8.7
Sweden : 7
Denmark : 7
UK : 7
New Jersey : 7
Guam : 6
CuraÁao : 6
Iceland : 6
Channel Islands : 6
Portugal : 6
Connecticut : 5.3
Nevada : 5.2
Austria : 5
Georgia : 4.5
Michigan : 4.3
District of Columbia : 4.3
Colorado : 3.3
  #1512  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:25 AM
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For posterity: BAM! Worldwide confirmed infections just topped 500,000.

And the US took the #2 spot from Italy.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-26-2020 at 11:26 AM.
  #1513  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:28 AM
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Originally Posted by El_Kabong View Post
One country I've been wondering about is Russia, from which little has been heard (at least in the mainstream US press) since the crisis began. It appears their response, or lack of one, has been strikingly similar to that of the US in the early days of the epidemic: mostly claim the outbreak is under control and deny there is an issue. Well, Russia (meaning Putin) apparently is coming round to the notion that they may have a problem:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/europ...ntl/index.html

The article mentions that Putin has declared next week to be a paid stay-at-home holiday, but that seems a laughably tepid response and otherwise there seems to be no long-term plan to deal with the outbreak as yet.
I posted this on 23 March:ETA: DYAC! "in part" not "impart"

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-26-2020 at 11:30 AM.
  #1514  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:30 AM
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What is the date when the US surpasses Italy in number of cases?
The date when the US holds the world record for number of deaths?

Because these two things are coming.

I'd say the US beats Italy in number of cases by next Monday at the latest.
The US will have the record death number by April 4.

And Fox News will rejoice, because this means that the US is effectively culling the herd of those useless old people.
  #1515  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
What is the date when the US surpasses Italy in number of cases?
As I just wrote, that happened today.
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
The date when the US holds the world record for number of deaths?
We are still some weeks from that being the case.
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
I'd say the US beats Italy in number of cases by next Monday at the latest.
Already happened.
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
The US will have the record death number by April 4.
I think that's a bit early but I wouldn't bet against it.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-26-2020 at 11:35 AM.
  #1516  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:49 AM
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As I just wrote, that happened today.
We are still some weeks from that being the case.
Already happened.
I think that's a bit early but I wouldn't bet against it.
I was using the John's Hopkins data - what are you using?
  #1517  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:50 AM
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World O Meter; always World O Meter.
  #1518  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:53 AM
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China suspending entry to foreigners, effective 00:00, 28 March 2020 (certain exceptions apply).

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Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China National Immigration Administration Announcement on the Temporary Suspension of Entry by Foreign Nationals Holding Valid Chinese Visas or Residence Permits

2020/03/26
March 26, 2020

In view of the rapid spread of COVID-19 across the world, China has decided to temporarily suspend the entry into China by foreign nationals holding visas or residence permits still valid to the time of this announcement, effective from 0 a.m., 28 march 2020. Entry by foreign nationals with APEC Business Travel Cards will be suspended as well. Policies including port visas, 24/72/144-hour visa-free transit policy, Hainan 30-day visa-free policy, 15-day visa-free policy specified for foreign cruise-group-tour through Shanghai Port, Guangdong 144-hour visa-free policy specified for foreign tour groups from Hong Kong or Macao SAR, and Guangxi 15-day visa-free policy specified for foreign tour groups of ASEAN countries will also be temporarily suspended. Entry with diplomatic, service, courtesy or C visas will not be affected. Foreign nationals coming to China for necessary economic, trade, scientific or technological activities or out of emergency humanitarian needs may apply for visas at Chinese embassies or consulates. Entry by foreign nationals with visas issued after this announcement will not be affected.

The suspension is a temporary measure that China is compelled to take in light of the outbreak situation and the practices of other countries. China will stay in close touch with all sides and properly handle personnel exchanges with the rest of the world under the special circumstances. The above-mentioned measures will be calibrated in light of the evolving situation and announced accordingly.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

National Immigration Administration

Last edited by Monty; 03-26-2020 at 11:53 AM.
  #1519  
Old 03-26-2020, 11:59 AM
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Italy's numbers aren't updated today, so the U.S. probably hasn't passed them yet. But either way, it will happen very soon if it hasn't already.
  #1520  
Old 03-26-2020, 12:54 PM
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I just checked the numbers on the worldometer site (March 26, 2020, 17:37 GMT). The number of new deaths as of March 26, 2020, 17:37 GMT is 662, total deaths is 8,165. The numbers for the US are new deaths, 73; total deaths, 1,100.
  #1521  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:07 PM
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More than 200 people infected with coronavirus have died in the United States on the last day. The United States became the sixth country in which more than a thousand people died from COVID-19. Before the United States, more than a thousand deaths were recorded in China, Iran, Italy, Spain and France...
  #1522  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:10 PM
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MAGA!

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  #1523  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
The US will have the record death number by April 4.
*Puts on Coach's hat*
We got a long way to go to beat Italy there. They are a tough opponent.
*Take's off Coach's hat*

It would have to be mid April at the earliest.
  #1524  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:32 PM
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Do medical personnel have access to enough tests now so that they can carry out widespread testing. I can't seem to keep up with all the bonfires currently burning/smoldering/ready to burst into flame.
No - my stepmom is hospitalized in NVC with a confirmed positive test and pneumonia, and my asthmatic father still doesn't meet testing criteria because he is (so far) asymptomatic.
  #1525  
Old 03-26-2020, 01:34 PM
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Eva Luna, I'm so sorry: this is terrible.
  #1526  
Old 03-26-2020, 02:04 PM
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MAGA!

CMC fnord!
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Keep the political jabs out of this forum, especially in breaking news threads. No warning issued, but after a few more day of quarantine I'm going to be cranky enough to start issuing them at the drop of a (red) hat.

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  #1527  
Old 03-26-2020, 02:09 PM
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Is NVC a medical term, or a typo for NYC?
  #1528  
Old 03-26-2020, 02:10 PM
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Moderator Note

Keep the political jabs out of this forum, especially in breaking news threads. No warning issued, but after a few more day of quarantine I'm going to be cranky enough to start issuing them at the drop of a (red) hat.

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How is Panama doing? Would that qualify for breaking news?
  #1529  
Old 03-26-2020, 03:20 PM
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What, R0 is going to suddenly start working differently?

Look, the rate of spread of this thing is like the rate of spread of any other disease. It's all about how many new people each infected person infects. That's R0. Absent social distancing, that's going to be a constant until enough people have developed a resistance to the disease already to reduce the number of uninfected people each infected person runs into. To noticeably reduce R0 that way, a good portion of the population has to have developed resistance.

We're nowhere near that point yet.

And until we are, the exponential rate of growth will continue as before, modulo the extent that social distancing reduces the number of contacts each infected person has.

So yeah, I think I can extrapolate along an exponential curve for the next freakin' two and a half weeks. Based, as before, on the assumption that social distancing is only minimally effective - and using the difference in actual deaths from what the exponential curve predicts as a measure of the effectiveness of social distancing.
Letís do some math that is basic working with one set of assumptions to start: 1% case fatality rate and kids all as susceptible and contagious as adults.

Yesterdayís deaths in NYC were 19 which reflects those first infected 21 days ago. Which under the 1% assumption means 1900 were newly infected 21 days ago. Using your 1.3 increase per day that means new infections today of 469,000, 610,000 tomorrow, and so on. Not quite to herd immunity that. But not nowhere near either.

No matter how loud you shout it.

Now alter the assumptions. Assume that there are, oh 4 undocumented mild infections than those documented, and kids do not spread the disease, so start off with 24% that function as immune. That would imply 30,000 new cases 3 weeks ago. 7.4 million new cases today. Which is more than the population of adults in NYC. Herd immunity would be a factor a bit back.

Do you KNOW which is the case? I donít. I donít know there arenít ten times as many undocumented as documented infections. Or none. No one does. If you think you do you donít know enough to know that you do not know.
  #1530  
Old 03-26-2020, 03:35 PM
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Is NVC a medical term, or a typo for NYC?
Typo.
  #1531  
Old 03-26-2020, 03:47 PM
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Just had a look at World-o-Meter, and they are now showing USA top of the list for total number of COVID-19 cases.
  #1532  
Old 03-26-2020, 03:49 PM
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Just had a look at World-o-Meter, and they are now showing USA top of the list for total number of COVID-19 cases.
Only because Russia is being extremely cagey about numbers.
  #1533  
Old 03-26-2020, 03:56 PM
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Just had a look at World-o-Meter, and they are now showing USA top of the list for total number of COVID-19 cases.
Woohoo!!! We're Number One!! We're Number One!!!!

.... uh .....



Yeah, I just spotted that. I'd love to see graphs showing our growth starting when our first case was diagnosed, versus China's.

This is really not a good time to have asthma or seasonal allergies. I don't mean the risks of Covid hitting harder, I mean "every routine cough" having me think "is this it? This is it, I KNOW IT".
  #1534  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:35 PM
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World O Meter; always World O Meter.
Iíve been using this too, but any idea how they can update so quickly?

I noticed that CNN is still using JH, which is slower to update. Perhaps JH fact-checks better? Itís kind of hard for World O Meter to be wrong when the numbers are growing. Even if they err on the high side, the number is going to eventually get there anyway.
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  #1535  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:37 PM
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Today in Austria:
  • Yesterday I reported that the hospital capacity situation in Austria seemed to be secure. However, between yesterday afternoon and yesterday evening the number of beds occupied by coronavirus patients more than doubled, and the number of those in intensive care more than tripled. Some of this apparent rise may be due to a new method the government is using to count patients. But Stefan Thurner, a professor at the Medical University of Vienna, has issued a stern warning that, despite its self-isolation measures, Austria is closely following the death curve of Italy. The situation is being exacerbated by an outbreak of garden-variety influenza, which now affects over 110,000 Austrian residents.
  • Henceforth, only half the members of parliament will be sitting at once, a measure presumably taken in furtherance of social distancing in the debating chamber. (Recall that one member of parliament has already tested positive.) Next week parliament will debate if/how it can continue with a full complement of MPs (for example, by remote participation).
  • Current statistics: 6398 confirmed infections (up 829 from yesterday), 49 dead (up 18 from yesterday), 9 recovered (no change since yesterday). 163,200 people have registered as unemployed since 15 March.
  #1536  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:38 PM
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Damn. Sorry to hear that, Psychonaut.
  #1537  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:40 PM
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Yeah, I just spotted that. I'd love to see graphs showing our growth starting when our first case was diagnosed, versus China's.
China (scroll down a bit to the first graph: Total Coronavirus Cases in China)

United States (same thing; just scroll down a bit)

China went over 1,000 confirmed infections on 24 January and hit 80,000 on 1 March, 35 days later.

The US went over 1,000 confirmed infections on 11 March and hit 80,000 on 26 March, 15 days later.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-26-2020 at 04:41 PM.
  #1538  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:48 PM
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I'd love to see graphs showing our growth starting when our first case was diagnosed, versus China's.

The Worldometer site has graphs on the main COVID-19 page and the country pages. A number of the graphs can be toggled between linear and logarithmic.
  #1539  
Old 03-26-2020, 04:51 PM
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Remember the Grand Princess that finally docked 9 March in Oakland?
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Two men who traveled on a coronavirus-stricken cruise ship stalled for days off the California coast have died, federal officials said Thursday, and they confirmed that fewer than half the ship’s passengers were tested for the virus despite assurances that everyone would be tested.

The men, both in their early 60s, were on the Grand Princess sailing from San Francisco to Hawaii on Feb. 21 and died from the coronavirus, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement.

One of the men was transported directly from the ship to a hospital when it docked March 9 in Oakland in the east San Francisco Bay. It had idled for several days off the California coast. The other man was among hundreds taken to Travis Air Force Base in Northern California for a 14-day isolation. He was immediately taken to a hospital after developing symptoms, said Bert Kelly, a spokesman for the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

One man died Saturday and the other Monday, Kelly said.

There is still no accurate accounting of how many of the 3,500 passengers and crew from 54 countries were infected with COVID-19 after a Northern California man on a previous sailing returned home and died of the virus, sparking the investigation.

Despite assurances from Vice President Mike Pence and California Gov. Gavin Newsom that everyone aboard the ship would be tested after the ship docked, only 1,100 passengers of about 2,400 have been tested, Kelly said. Many of the others declined testing after waiting numerous days in isolation. Kelly said of those tested, 103 have tested positive and 699 were negative. More results are pending.
17 days have gone by and not everyone has been tested yet. And of the ones who did get tested, many are still awaiting results.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-26-2020 at 04:52 PM.
  #1540  
Old 03-26-2020, 05:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo View Post
China (scroll down a bit to the first graph: Total Coronavirus Cases in China)

United States (same thing; just scroll down a bit)

China went over 1,000 confirmed infections on 24 January and hit 80,000 on 1 March, 35 days later.

The US went over 1,000 confirmed infections on 11 March and hit 80,000 on 26 March, 15 days later.
Thanks - yeah, I knew I could look at individual graphs. It would be very eye-opening to see them overlaid on top of each other so we could see the curves; so far the only ones I see are by actual date, not number of days since first infection.

We really are overachievers

I'm actually playing around on a site called data.world which has sets of statistics by country, day, and even geographic info. You can try doing SQL on the file though I'm running into some challenges there; also, the subset of data today is different from last night (e.g today it's all from Johns Hopkins, and I forget where yesterday's was). I'm actually doing this as a work-related learning exercise in statistics.
  #1541  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:00 PM
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No.

Current standard already is to consider safe to return once 72 hours of fever-free and symptoms consistently improving. I don't know exactly what data that recommendation has been based off of. Nevertheless for other viral infections it is established that some low level viral shedding long outlasts the period of meaningful contagiousness. The standard for influenza in comparison is safe to return after 24 hours of fever-free even though it is documented that some viral shedding can last for up to ten days.
For people who have had no symptoms -- those who would be found only by an anti-body test -- there is no way the antibody test can tell if they still have no symptoms or are recovered.

One of my wife's colleagues, a medical doctor, has been both positive and symptom-free for 3 tests over 10 days. He has been tested while symptom-free because of a known contact with the virus.

However, one possibility is that he is symptom free because he is anti-body free. This is an interesting question that will only be answered when anti-body tests become available.

Last edited by Melbourne; 03-26-2020 at 06:01 PM.
  #1542  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:45 PM
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Only because Russia is being extremely cagey about numbers.
Russia reports at lest four (4) people have died ...

Come on man you think they lie?

Me too
  #1543  
Old 03-26-2020, 06:59 PM
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I'm more interested in the fact that Spain had more deaths than Italy today. Why are people not paying more attention to Spain?
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  #1544  
Old 03-26-2020, 07:07 PM
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I'm more interested in the fact that Spain had more deaths than Italy today. Why are people not paying more attention to Spain?
Who isnít? I think the reason Italy was so in the spotlight was that it was the first western country to experience that exponential growth in cases and deaths. Now we know that there will be many more, and no one will be all that surprised if the US blows past Spain0s daily totals in a few days.
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Old 03-26-2020, 07:49 PM
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At least 25 crew members of the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt have tested positive, and the entire 5000 member crew is being tested. The ship is docked in Guam for now.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/polit...ier/index.html
  #1546  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:33 PM
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The widespread obsession, here and in the media in general, with total numbers of cases and deaths, puzzles me.

Why is there so much discussion of totals by country, yet only sporadic mentions of numbers of cases per country per capita?

There is so much hand-wringing over which country is ahead in total numbers. Italy for the win! Wait, Spain ahead by a length now! United States coming from behind, may take the lead next week! It sounds like a day at the horse races.

Why is there so little emphasis on the numbers per capita? The Unites States is a big country. Seen that way, we're nowhere near Italy or Spain in the numbers.

Same remark applies to the numbers being tested. We may have tested more than South Korea by now, but does that mean we're ahead of South Korea in testing?
  #1547  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:35 PM
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There is so much hand-wringing over which country is ahead in total numbers. Italy for the win! Wait, Spain ahead by a length now! United States coming from behind, may take the lead next week! It sounds like a day at the horse races.
gallows humor: humor that makes fun of a life-threatening, disastrous, or terrifying situation
  #1548  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:37 PM
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Seen on TV last night (March 25), but I haven't seen it in this thread yet. (Maybe I missed it?)

Diana Koelliker, a medical officer in San Miguel County, Colorado, says the county will begin testing of county residents en masse for antibodies.

Last edited by Senegoid; 03-26-2020 at 08:40 PM.
  #1549  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:47 PM
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China closes its borders to foreign Chinese.

People start worrying about the coronavirus impact on poorer countries.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...poor-countries
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  #1550  
Old 03-26-2020, 08:58 PM
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For people who have had no symptoms -- those who would be found only by an anti-body test -- there is no way the antibody test can tell if they still have no symptoms or are recovered. ...
There is of course little data at all on asymptomatic infections. How contagious they are (or not) let alone for how long. The best guess so far is from a Science article that estimated undocumented infections in China (which included asymptomatic and some number of mild infections) had likely been about 55% as infectious as infections bad enough to get documented. But for how long? Likely less long that symptomatic infections one would think, so likely by the time the antibodies are detected past the point? No one yet knows.

Meanwhile I found this 3/18 preprint article that might be of interest.

First the timing of the antibody response in symptomatic infections:
Quote:
The positive rate for IgG reached 100% around 20 days after symptoms onset.
The median day of seroconversion for both lgG and IgM was 13 days after symptoms
onset. Seroconversion of IgM occurred at the same time, or earlier, or later than that
of IgG
Next they looked at identifying asymptomatic infections in a cohort of 164 close contacts of a couple with COVID19.

Of the 164 close contacts 16 infections were identified by RT-PCR, 3 of whom were asymptomatic (13 symptomatic).

All 16 were also identified by the antibody test, which also identified another 7 asymptomatic cases.

Total symptomatic (not mentioned how symptomatic) 13; total asymptomatic 10 (most missed by RT-PCR alone).

Better to do relatively large scale sampling in China or South Korea where they are past the (initial) peak than in NYC where the case number is still in the rapid rise phase. But this suggests that nearly half of all infections are completely asymptomatic, in addition to whatever number is mild enough as to not come to anyone's attention or get labeled.

Last edited by DSeid; 03-26-2020 at 08:59 PM.
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