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  #51  
Old 01-30-2020, 08:49 AM
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I'm concerned enough about the new coronavirus that I've dramatically curtailed my consumption of wild-caught snakes. Only farm-raised, FDA-inspected snakes for me.

I'm surprised that KarlGauss and Qadgop haven't caught on that influenza vaccination caused the new coronavirus outbreak! Or it's part of a population-culling scheme by our evil overlords, including Bill Gates.

Be very afraid. And buy lots of canned food.

And frozen, microwaveable snake fritters.
  #52  
Old 01-30-2020, 09:05 AM
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If you get the Corona Virus, Lyme disease can't be far behind as they tend to travel together.
  #53  
Old 01-30-2020, 09:07 AM
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Not nearly as concerned as I am about The Twittler using it as an excuse to declare martial law and having 'infected Americans' collected and taken to 'treatment facilities' from which they never return; and then declaring himself a hero of the nation planet for stopping the pandemic with his sheer awesomeness. I'm probably not as concerned as I should be about either eventuality, I suppose. So, like 0.005/10 for the disease, and .0083/10 for the police state.

The internet people are calling it "The Kung Flu". I'd be ok dying of something called The Kung Flu.
  #54  
Old 01-30-2020, 03:24 PM
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Lets see I’m about to get on my second flight in 3 days. Between now and mid-March I’ll be on another cross country flight and will work three trade shows one of which attracts 100,000 visitors from around the world.

Unless those events get cancelled or the the even unlikelier event the government sets up quarantines there’s not much I can do about it. I still have to do my job. If I get sick I get sick. I have a better chance of catching the Flu anyway.


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  #55  
Old 01-30-2020, 04:13 PM
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If you get the Corona Virus, Lyme disease can't be far behind as they tend to travel together.
I see what you did there. Will be watching you
  #56  
Old 01-30-2020, 04:39 PM
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My concern just ticked up one point because Chicago - which I live and work close to - now has a second case, this one a case of human-to-human transmission in Chicago (husband of first case, clearly a close contact). Still low at a 1 or a 2. I'll worry more if Chicago starts to have more cases.
  #57  
Old 01-30-2020, 08:54 PM
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There is one bright spot me me, as terrible as it sounds.

Flying this way to visit my mom, before the news sounded so grim, the plane was completely booked and I was stuck on a window seat (in economy) across the Pacific and middle seat from San Francisco to Atlanta.

Now no one ones to be flying to Taiwan so I set aisle seats back.

I tend to not worry about these things too much.
  #58  
Old 01-30-2020, 09:47 PM
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I caught the Corona virus a decade ago when we drove past the monstrous brewery above Zacatecas. Moza cured me.

Oh, this current furore. What, me worry? Flu kills more around here. Few global travelers tread the same paths as I. And our bears and mountain lions will get them first.
  #59  
Old 01-30-2020, 10:47 PM
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Well I have had the corona virus many times over the years, well it's a common cold which is a corona virus!
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  #60  
Old 02-03-2020, 12:41 AM
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Delta cancelled flights on sunday after announcing the last day would be 6 Feb. My wife got her ticket changed and is now in Korea preparing for a flight to SF. Assuming the screening in SF goes well, then should be in Seattle around 3:00PM Monday (tomorrow). will see. Gonna be careful around the house such as frequent hand washing, sleeping in the guest room, using the guest towels and washing them every day, etc. Don't think we need to do more than that.

The infection rate in shanghai is about 300 people out of about 20,000,000, so pretty low odds if asymetric
  #61  
Old 02-03-2020, 08:07 PM
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China Wife left Shanghai yesterday and is now in Seattle. Since the US airlines stopped direct flights, she used her ticket on Korean Air to Korea, then switched to a Delta flight to SF, then to SEA. Took 24 hours vs a 12 hour direct flight. From our flat in Shanghai to the boarding the plane, she had her temperature checked a half dozen times. In the airport in Korea as well. Upon landing in the US at a designated coronavirus airport (7 in the US), she simply filled out a form.

In Shanghai, at least, no one goes out without wearing a mask. If one person in your housing complex, which can be at least thousands of people, has a fever/suspected case, the entire complex goes into actual quarantine with every person having 2x per day temperature checks. Groceries are delivered.

China Wife is highly unlikely to be carrying any virus. That said, kids are barred from using the master bathroom, and I have a huge bottle of hand sanitizer sitting on the kitchen counter. If any of us run a fever in the next few days, then defcon 3.
  #62  
Old 02-03-2020, 09:19 PM
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A public health pro I talked to said:

The good news, the mortality rate is only one in 500, it's basically a common cold, lots of rest, plenty of liquids is the only treatment.

The bad news, the 14-day incubation, which means exposure to lots and lots of people before you know you have it.
  #63  
Old 02-03-2020, 09:33 PM
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Iím kind of concerned because I have a trip to Singapore planned for April. By then the crisis will either be over, or there will be a massive epidemic there. (There are currently 18 cases there.)
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  #64  
Old 02-04-2020, 03:33 AM
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One of the tricky things is that one of the reasons for going to Singapore for a medical meeting is because it's close to China. But the people from China can't come anyway. But we have to do the bookings now. (Most doctors have no more idea what's going on than they can read in the press: these doctors are going ahead with the meeting and hoping).

Last edited by Melbourne; 02-04-2020 at 03:34 AM.
  #65  
Old 02-04-2020, 04:44 AM
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No drama here. Off to Vietnam on 28.02, and nary a worry in the world.

More likely to get killed by a drop-bear here in Aus, or run over by feral scooters in Saigon. Coronavirus? Pffftt.
  #66  
Old 02-04-2020, 04:46 AM
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If you get the Corona Virus, Lyme disease can't be far behind as they tend to travel together.
Off to your room, you know why.
  #67  
Old 02-04-2020, 08:56 AM
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One thing I see is that although I myself am not too concerned ó the local Chinese community, which is huge, is terrified. There are reports that business is down dramatically at the Asian stores and all the workers there now wear a mask and gloves.
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Old 02-04-2020, 09:19 AM
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Iím pretty concerned. It has a two week incubation period.
I won't be concerned until we get a solid death rate in the United States, and if it is significantly worse than the flu.

I don't think that will be the case.
  #69  
Old 02-04-2020, 09:53 AM
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One thing I see is that although I myself am not too concerned ó the local Chinese community, which is huge, is terrified. There are reports that business is down dramatically at the Asian stores and all the workers there now wear a mask and gloves.
Yes. My wife is from China and her parents live with us here in the US, and my in-laws are in full-blown panic mode. It's driven by stuff their friends forward them on WeChat. According to my MIL:

- The virus is a hybrid of the AIDS virus and a virus extracted from bats that was created as a weapon by the military.

- The virus was developed four years ago, which you can tell from patents and the hiring pattern at the military lab in Hunan.

- It was deliberately released by a vendor at the fish market in the stall of a rival in order to ruin their business.

- The cities are on lockdown because people are dropping where they stand by the thousands and the government is trying to cover this up.

- There is also a new SARS outbreak that is also being covered up.

- There are 3,000 cases in the US which, again, is also being covered up.

I tell her that this all sounds like a lot of BS, but she says all her friends are saying the same thing and they can't all be wrong, so it must be true. I'm not worried myself, but starting to get pissed off because this is what I'm hearing every day.
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Old 02-04-2020, 10:36 AM
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Even if youíre not concerned about catching it yourself, it might affect you if youíre traveling. There are reports that it took 6 hours to get through immigration at San Francisco airport yesterday. Passengers had to submit a detailed itinerary of their past travels and undergo a medical examination.
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Old 02-04-2020, 11:32 AM
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I had two staff members in China on vacation for the New Year.

One returned yesterday after jumping through hoops to change flights. He has voluntarily chosen to self-quarantine for two weeks, he will likely work from home.

The other staff member I have not heard from yet. I don't even know where in China she is, but she is due back tomorrow which seems less likely given the flight cancellations.

We just received a pandemic plan from our landlord. If it becomes an issue here, I'll just direct everyone to work from home. All of our production systems are in the cloud and if things seem to be going sideways I can move everything else to the cloud without leaving the house.
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Old 02-04-2020, 06:37 PM
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Even if youíre not concerned about catching it yourself, it might affect you if youíre traveling. There are reports that it took 6 hours to get through immigration at San Francisco airport yesterday. Passengers had to submit a detailed itinerary of their past travels and undergo a medical examination.
According to my wife, who came from China yesterday thru SF, this was not the case.

She simply filled out a health questionnaire and didn't even get a temperature check.

And it was a 3 hour layer between the flight from Korea and her flight to SEA, so there wasn't much of a delay.
  #73  
Old 02-04-2020, 07:10 PM
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No drama here. Off to Vietnam on 28.02, and nary a worry in the world.

More likely to get killed by a drop-bear here in Aus, or run over by feral scooters in Saigon. Coronavirus? Pffftt.
Damn likely to get killed by a drop-bear, those things are nasty!
  #74  
Old 02-05-2020, 05:15 AM
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It's summer in Aus. Not the Flu and Cold season. If the Wuhan Cold was endemic in Melbourne, I still wouldn't be worried about catching a cold in January.
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:13 AM
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Wuhan coronavirus is getting approximately the same amount of hype as ebola did. And over the course of the entire epidemic, there were a grand total of three ebola cases in the US. Yawn.

What I am concerned about is the flu, which is definitely here, and by the best estimates is more lethal than Wuhan coronavirus.

On the other hand, panic over Wuhan coronavirus might lead to more people taking the same precautions they should be taking anyway against the flu. Which could actually end up saving lives, on net.
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:21 AM
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Oh, and to put the danger of Wuhan coronavirus into perspective: The total danger depends on both how easily contagious it is, and how bad it is once you catch it. We don't yet know either of those numbers by itself. But we do know that, in a country with both an extremely high population and a very high population density, it's only killed a little over a hundred. Either it spreads very slowly or it has a very low lethality rate, but either way, it's not very dangerous.

I'm glad that folks like the CDC are keeping an eye on it. Eventually, some disease will come along that really is worth worrying about, and our response to that hypothetical disease will be much better if we notice and start taking measures early. But I'm not an epidemiologist, so I won't start worrying personally until the epidemiologists say that I should.
  #77  
Old 02-05-2020, 06:49 AM
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What I am concerned about is the flu, which is definitely here, and by the best estimates is more lethal than Wuhan coronavirus.
Wow.

I am shocked at how entrenched this dismissal has become on the Dope.

No, standard flu is NOT more "lethal" than the Wuhan coronavirus. This new virus is at least one order of magnitude more likely to kill you if you catch it than the flu is. Perhaps two orders of magnitude.

Yes, flu kills more in absolute numbers because so many more people catch the flu, a virus not taken as seriously as it should be taken. But of people who catch each disease, those who catch Wuhan coronavirus are much more likely to experience severe illness or death. The absolute numbers are smaller only because so many fewer people have caught this disease.
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:51 AM
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But we do know that, in a country with both an extremely high population and a very high population density, it's only killed a little over a hundred. Either it spreads very slowly or it has a very low lethality rate, but either way, it's not very dangerous.
Again - if you catch it you are more likely to die from Wuhan coronavirus than from the flu. Fortunately, it doesn't seem to be as contagious and easily spread as some other coronaviruses. It's killed "only" a little over a hundred only because only about 10,000 people have caught it, and since not all of those have recovered I expect the total number of deaths to rise over the next few weeks.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:15 AM
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Again - if you catch it you are more likely to die from Wuhan coronavirus than from the flu. Fortunately, it doesn't seem to be as contagious and easily spread as some other coronaviruses. It's killed "only" a little over a hundred only because only about 10,000 people have caught it, and since not all of those have recovered I expect the total number of deaths to rise over the next few weeks.
The infection rate and mortality are complete guesses at this point, calculated based on data provided by a notoriously terrible source. If you look at informed estimates of infection rather than reported numbers, the mortality is probably 10x to 100x lower than what is calculated based on official reported numbers.

The mortality is probably still a little higher than the flu. But it doesn't appear to be as deadly as you say.
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Old 02-05-2020, 10:24 AM
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We also only hear about the worst flu cases - no one knows how many cases aren't tracked. No such statistic is perfect.

We've got one set from reported cases. We have another set based on estimates, albeit estimates from informed and expert sources. Both indicate Wuhan coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu once you catch it. So people should stop dismissing it as "not as serious/dangerous/bad as flu" because so far the evidence indicates that it is, in fact, more dangerous. How much more dangerous is still not known and debatable, because how infectious it is or isn't also factors into how much of a threat to public health it might be.
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Old 02-05-2020, 02:34 PM
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No, how dangerous it is is the one question we do know the answer to. Either it spreads easily (in which case, the number of cases is much higher than the number reported, and hence the likelihood of dying once you catch it is very low), or it has a high mortality once caught (and hence, there aren't many more cases than the ones reported, and hence it must not spread very easily): We don't know which of those two scenarios is the case. But what we do know is that the number of deaths, as a proportion of the exposed population, is extremely low.
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Old 02-05-2020, 03:16 PM
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Influenza and pneumonia are the 8th leading cause of death in the U.S.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/282929.php

So something which ends up as bad as them is a very bad thing.
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Old 02-05-2020, 03:21 PM
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Oh, and to put the danger of Wuhan coronavirus into perspective: The total danger depends on both how easily contagious it is, and how bad it is once you catch it. We don't yet know either of those numbers by itself. But we do know that, in a country with both an extremely high population and a very high population density, it's only killed a little over a hundred. Either it spreads very slowly or it has a very low lethality rate, but either way, it's not very dangerous.
Would you believe 500. (Cite from the Times. )
Now that China has clamped down on news, it will be hard to tell the real story. We don't know yet if asymptomatic people can spread the virus. There have been reports of a case, but there have been some doubts as to its accuracy.
No reason to panic in the US, yet. But it will be interesting to see what happens when the factories in China reopen and there is more opportunity for the virus to spread in places outside of Wuhan.
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Old 02-05-2020, 04:32 PM
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No, how dangerous it is is the one question we do know the answer to. Either it spreads easily (in which case, the number of cases is much higher than the number reported, and hence the likelihood of dying once you catch it is very low), or it has a high mortality once caught (and hence, there aren't many more cases than the ones reported, and hence it must not spread very easily): We don't know which of those two scenarios is the case. But what we do know is that the number of deaths, as a proportion of the exposed population, is extremely low.
You are saying that the number of infected people to the number of deaths ratio is low. But we do not know how many of the infected people are going to survive. They are still infected. Am I wrong? Also, can we really trust the numbers from China?
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Old 02-05-2020, 06:56 PM
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You are saying that the number of infected people to the number of deaths ratio is low. But we do not know how many of the infected people are going to survive. They are still infected. Am I wrong? Also, can we really trust the numbers from China?
No, he's saying that the number of deaths compared to the number of people in Wuhan ratio is low. We know how many people in Wuhan have survived. Either infectivity is low, or fatality is low: either way, morbidity is low.

Last edited by Melbourne; 02-05-2020 at 06:58 PM.
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Old 02-05-2020, 07:25 PM
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Would you believe 500. (Cite from the Times. )
Now that China has clamped down on news, it will be hard to tell the real story. We don't know yet if asymptomatic people can spread the virus. There have been reports of a case, but there have been some doubts as to its accuracy.
No reason to panic in the US, yet. But it will be interesting to see what happens when the factories in China reopen and there is more opportunity for the virus to spread in places outside of Wuhan.
The virus has spread across china with something like 10 cities (with populations of 5M+) in quarantine (Nanjing, Ningbo, Wuzhou, etc).

My wife returned from China on Monday. The ONLY health screening in the SF airport was to fill out a form. No temperature check. Go USA.

Factory date to apply for permission to re-open in most of China is 10 Feb. Will see if this holds or is pushed back. Secondly, most places such as Eastern China, have a 2 week quarantine for anyone without a residence permit. For example, I have a factory in Suzhou China, assuming I am given the green light, on 10 Feb I can only open the factory with locals. Anyone that has residency elsewhere, or engineer from Taiwan, has to first be quarantined for 14 days before starting work. That means, EVEN IF factories are cleared to reopen on 10 Feb, there is going to be a long ramp up period before getting to volume production.
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Old 02-05-2020, 08:56 PM
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The virus has spread across china with something like 10 cities (with populations of 5M+) in quarantine (Nanjing, Ningbo, Wuzhou, etc).

My wife returned from China on Monday. The ONLY health screening in the SF airport was to fill out a form. No temperature check. Go USA.

Factory date to apply for permission to re-open in most of China is 10 Feb. Will see if this holds or is pushed back. Secondly, most places such as Eastern China, have a 2 week quarantine for anyone without a residence permit. For example, I have a factory in Suzhou China, assuming I am given the green light, on 10 Feb I can only open the factory with locals. Anyone that has residency elsewhere, or engineer from Taiwan, has to first be quarantined for 14 days before starting work. That means, EVEN IF factories are cleared to reopen on 10 Feb, there is going to be a long ramp up period before getting to volume production.
Thank you. That's interesting.
Another thing - Toy Fair is Feb 22 this year in New York. It is where a lot of deals get done for Christmas. Most toys get manufactured in China. If the ban on travel is still on, which seems likely, I wonder what that is going to do to the toy business this year.
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Old 02-06-2020, 06:46 AM
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First case confirmed in Madison, Wisconsin.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:06 AM
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Well, shit, we live in interesting times.

First, somehow it got out that my kids mother returned to the US on Monday from China (where she has been in self-quarantine in Shanghai for 2+ weeks) and that my kids were not self-quarantining just 'cause. Nor, horrors, are they wearing masks at school. The Tiger Moms within a hundred posts were able to name and shame my kids. And interestingly enough were able to use the birth name of middle child, then the new trans name being used at school, as well as the longer version now being the preferred name (think Jane then Chris, then Christopher as a made up example).

Righteous Tiger Moms have flooded the school wechat group in Chinese with their outrage, bile, panic and lack of facts. My kids mother made the mistake of trying to engage, and she knows many of the fellow Tiger Moms personally, was flamed and after a few hundred messages left the group. I, too, am a member of the group, and checked in to see what the kefluffle is all about. Long story short, one kidlet was coughing in class so badly, he had to be sent to the nurse. Kidlet said he got pulled out of class for no apparent reason, nurse checked his temperature and sent him back to class. Kidlet does not have a fever nor a cough.

That said, other kids know his mom was coming back on Monday and *cough cough* admitted he might have joked about have coronavirus with his buddies and pretended to cough *cough cough. He already realized that was a poor move and before I could bring it up said he would apologize to all and sundry tomorrow and never joke about serious shit again.

Tiger Moms then worked themselves into a one upmanship frenzy of who has already self-quarantined their kids 'cause of jerks like me versus those on the fence of keeping their kids home tomorrow. One TM reported that the principal said "you can keep your kid home as an excused absence if you would like."

I like the principal. I will be going in when I drop off the kidlets tomorrow morning to highlight the risk of bullying. One kid is trans, and some shit will probably make sure the entire school knows he is trans (instead of just half the school). The other kid is on the autism spectrum, and vulnerable to bullying. Good news it is a small public school that students get in via lottery, and the principal, staff and teachers don't cotton to bullying and are able to kick out the trouble makers pretty easily.

I was really reasonable with the wechat group. Understand all of us care about our kids, no one wants to spread rumors, spread panic, no one condones bullying, etc. But Mom is asymptomatic, kids are asymptomatic, we are following the CDC guidelines, the local children's hospital had no issue with me visiting one of their clinics (I checked in advance and one of the doctors called back to say I was welcome as long as I didnt' have a fever or cough.) Offered to meet any one that wanted to discuss in person tomorrow morning outside at 20 paces. Even then I got comments that I might spread the coronavirus.

I swear these tiger moms sound like the most ignorant peasants from the Chinese countryside instead of the highly educated professional first generation go getters that populate the high tech world of Seattle. And I didn't even get on my high horse of having lived thru SARS in it's entirety in Shanghai, nor that I probably have more relatives in the epicenter Hubei province than all of the rest of them combined.

The other thing I learned about Tiger Mom's is that they don't sleep. You can lead a Tiger Mom to water, but you can't drown her like a peasant with unwanted kittens. Le sigh.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:09 AM
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Oh ya, and then tonight my Taiwanese company that has massive factories and a million employees in China, declared the latest policy that US based employees that have had any kind of close contact with someone from China need to self-quarantine for 2 weeks and not go to the office. This applies to me since my wife came back on Monday.

Good news is that I have been working on getting back in shape snowboarding. Better news is that I can be in the chairlift 1 hour after dropping my kids off in the morning. So, I'll bitch about quarantine, and make sure I ride each chairlift by myself to stay in policy.
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Old 02-07-2020, 01:32 AM
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Drama like the above makes me so thankful for my daughters' school (about 30% Chinese) where they've just been mailing out the latest health guidelines every couple of days (currently 'you're fine unless you were in Hubei in January, or came back from China after Feb 1') and thanking everyone for washing their hands.

I'm quite sure I'm seeing fewer facemasks out and about than I was three weeks ago when we were all trying not to breathe in bushfire smoke, too.

Meanwhile, the Uni is dealing with its own little coronavirus drama - classes for the coming year start in three weeks, and up to a quarter of students for some courses won't be able to get back, if the government extends the travel ban (more likely than not) past its current mid-Feb date. Massive headache for all the poor kids who've got tickets and accommodation booked already, not to mention the lecturers trying to figure out how to adjust for them
  #92  
Old 02-07-2020, 06:49 AM
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Hearing about the cruise ships that aren't letting anyone off is a little off-putting, as we've got a cruise scheduled in May. Then again, it's pretty far out, time-wise, plus we're sailing for Bermuda out of NJ, so I expect the chances of anyone coming from China for a week-long cruise is pretty small.

Mostly, I just imagine being trapped on a ship with thousands of pissed-off travelers and a few sickies - not much of a vacation...
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Old 02-07-2020, 06:59 AM
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I think the movie, "Contagion", did a good job depicting what the social after-shocks would be like after a major epidemic became public knowledge. The stuff I'm reading here is happening even though there are only a handful of cases nationwide.
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  #94  
Old 02-07-2020, 07:03 AM
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Not concerned at all.
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Old 02-07-2020, 07:07 AM
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Originally Posted by FairyChatMom View Post
Hearing about the cruise ships that aren't letting anyone off is a little off-putting, as we've got a cruise scheduled in May.
This cruise ship is parked right across the channel from my terminal. They are participating in "elevated screening".

Oh joy.
  #96  
Old 02-07-2020, 08:58 AM
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When other countries managed to get their nationals out of Wuhan, it took forever for Taiwan to be able to get its citizens out because of the lack of cooperation between the countries. China finally let Taiwan send a charter flight and had a list of 244 people.

Then problems developed.
Quote:
The most recent confirmed case of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Taiwan is a man who was evacuated from China on Monday, but the patient was not listed among the 244 people Taiwan asked to have sent back from Wuhan City, a Taiwanese group involved in the effort said Wednesday.

Late Feb. 3, a charter flight carrying 247 Taiwanese arrived in Taipei from Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus, and they have since been in quarantine at three separate facilities across the country.

Three of the evacuees, including the man who tested positive on Tuesday in Taiwan's latest case, were not on the list provided by Taiwan to Chinese authorities for evacuation, Hsu Cheng-wen (徐正文), the head of a private group that helped coordinate the effort, told the media Wednesday.
According to my wife, the guy is Chinese, not Taiwanese, so it's not known why he was allowed onboard. Money speaks.

Apparently, the people are being quarantined in modest facilities, but many of them are well-to-do and are angry that they aren't in five star facilities with fancy good. There is a backlash against them.
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Old 02-07-2020, 10:01 AM
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Unless I'm being lied to (not outside the realm of possibility), the transmission of this virus can be easily stymied by universal precautions, such as hand-washing.

Plus, I spend little time in hospitals, international airports, and Asian cities, so my odds of exposure are pretty slim, I'd say.

I'm going to say that on a scale from one to ten, I'm at a hard zero.
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Old 02-07-2020, 10:02 AM
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China Wife left Shanghai yesterday and is now in Seattle. Since the US airlines stopped direct flights, she used her ticket on Korean Air to Korea, then switched to a Delta flight to SF, then to SEA. Took 24 hours vs a 12 hour direct flight. From our flat in Shanghai to the boarding the plane, she had her temperature checked a half dozen times. In the airport in Korea as well. Upon landing in the US at a designated coronavirus airport (7 in the US), she simply filled out a form.

In Shanghai, at least, no one goes out without wearing a mask. If one person in your housing complex, which can be at least thousands of people, has a fever/suspected case, the entire complex goes into actual quarantine with every person having 2x per day temperature checks. Groceries are delivered.

China Wife is highly unlikely to be carrying any virus. That said, kids are barred from using the master bathroom, and I have a huge bottle of hand sanitizer sitting on the kitchen counter. If any of us run a fever in the next few days, then defcon 3.
Good luck. And hell, I read your later post. Good luck with all that, too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
No, how dangerous it is is the one question we do know the answer to. Either it spreads easily (in which case, the number of cases is much higher than the number reported, and hence the likelihood of dying once you catch it is very low), or it has a high mortality once caught (and hence, there aren't many more cases than the ones reported, and hence it must not spread very easily): We don't know which of those two scenarios is the case. But what we do know is that the number of deaths, as a proportion of the exposed population, is extremely low.
You are reading the numbers wrong. This is still in the "exponential growth" stage. So most of the infected haven't had it long enough to either die OR recover. And the numbers coming out of China are out-dated, both because China is not a reliable provider of information in general, and also because there's a long backlog to get tested in China. From his obit in the WSJ: The "whistle blower", a 33 year old opthamologist who observed that one of his patients caught it from another person (her sister, I think?) just died of it. He wasn't officially diagnosed with it until 2 weeks after he developed symptoms, although he thought he had it, and immediately moved to a hotel room to try to avoid infecting his pregnant wife and child.

So we don't know any of the numbers, but we do know that all of them are growing fast, and that there's a lot of panic in the midst of the epidemic, where people have first-hand information.

I think this is pretty bad. I'm still hopeful we will contain it, as SARS and MERS have been contained. But I don't think worry is silly.
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Old 02-07-2020, 10:07 AM
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Originally Posted by HeyHomie View Post
Unless I'm being lied to (not outside the realm of possibility), the transmission of this virus can be easily stymied by universal precautions, such as hand-washing.

Plus, I spend little time in hospitals, international airports, and Asian cities, so my odds of exposure are pretty slim, I'd say.

I'm going to say that on a scale from one to ten, I'm at a hard zero.
Well, I regularly catch colds, despite washing my hands. I fly regularly, and my favorite hobby involves holding hands with lots of people, many of whom also travel. And I get my routine medical care in a hospital in the midst of my city's Chinatown.

But really, either we'll have widespread infection in the US or we won't. I'll just be at risk a month or two before you will be.
  #100  
Old 02-07-2020, 01:08 PM
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Talked to the school this morning. They are appalled that my kids were named on the wechat parent group. Are being extra viligent that there will be no bullying, especially toward my youngest.

No tiger mom dared to meet me this morning even outside at 20 paces because they were afeard of getting the virus.

Most of the internet hero Tiger Moms confessed Tiger Mom genes were stronger than the fear of coronavirus and sent their kids to school today.

They are so irrational. One posted the CDC card that people returning from China get. It says clearly on the card (my paraphrase since I don't want to type it out fully)
1. If coming from Hubei province, you are restricted at home for 14 days (my wife did not come from Hubei)
2. If coming from elsewhere in China, you need to self monitor for 14 days, and avoid crowded areas, limit public activities, etc

After posting the above notice, one of the Tiger Moms wrote "it is very clear that the Mom has to quarantine at home for 14 days!!!"

I might wade back in tonight, but can't be bothered to try fact check the hundreds of posts these idiots are making. And they are all assuming I am a total anti-vaxxer that doesn't know shit about China, despite the fact my posting has been in Chinese. I lived in China during SARS, I have more relatives in the epicenter province of Hubei than probably the entire group combined, and I work for a Chinese company that has multiple factories throughout China, and I've been to the epicenter Wuhan multiple times (but not for 18 months) and know dozens of people there.

The stupidity - it burns. And none of these idiots can be bothered to check WHO, CDC, epidemiologists, etc.
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