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  #101  
Old 02-07-2020, 02:04 PM
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I live in shanghai. As I posted in the other forum, I started out concerned about this but I think the way this is being spun internationally is out of all proportion.
10,000 Americans have died of flu this winter season. All indications are that this new coronavirus has a similar level of risk to a strain of flu -- that's not a good thing, and so China is doing broadly the right thing on pulling out all the stops to nip it in the bud.

But the way this is being covered on international media while ignoring current deadly infections, and the harsh treatment of Chinese, is not justified.

Last edited by Mijin; 02-07-2020 at 02:06 PM.
  #102  
Old 02-07-2020, 02:30 PM
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On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is "the risk that my dryer lint will coalesce into a giant bunny that overthrows the U.S. government" and 10 is "the risk that my ex-girlfriend's new boyfriend, who has just set fire to the office I'm occupying with a flamethrower and shot my co-worker, will now try to shoot me with the gun in his hand," my worry level is about a 2. Sure, this could turn out to be very contagious, very deadly, and infect lots of people but public health officials are paying attention to it and trying to minimize the dangers of a contagious outbreak. It is very unlikely to affect me personally. I'm much more worried about getting run over by a car when I walk to the train.
  #103  
Old 02-07-2020, 06:08 PM
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I live in shanghai. As I posted in the other forum, I started out concerned about this but I think the way this is being spun internationally is out of all proportion.
10,000 Americans have died of flu this winter season. All indications are that this new coronavirus has a similar level of risk to a strain of flu -- that's not a good thing, and so China is doing broadly the right thing on pulling out all the stops to nip it in the bud.

But the way this is being covered on international media while ignoring current deadly infections, and the harsh treatment of Chinese, is not justified.
I'd ask for a quote from Dr. Li Wenliang who brought it to the world's attention but.... he died from it.

What's your theory behind China shutting cities down and building hospitals in a week to handle the situation? Seems foolish to do this if it's just the flu. Is China trying to spread false rumors?

Help us out here.
  #104  
Old 02-07-2020, 10:25 PM
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I'd ask for a quote from Dr. Li Wenliang who brought it to the world's attention but.... he died from it.



What's your theory behind China shutting cities down and building hospitals in a week to handle the situation? Seems foolish to do this if it's just the flu. Is China trying to spread false rumors?



Help us out here.
I'm just going by the numbers. Outside of hubei it looks like a pretty normal, even mild, strain of the flu virus. Within hubei there's more uncertainty and it seems the numbers could be very high, but this is still not unusual for a new outbreak.

Regarding your question, let me be clear, coronavirus *is* serious, I'm talking about having some proportionality in how it's covered.
China is pulling out all the stops to extinguish this virus. They don't want what happened with SARS to happen again, and they should be commended on that. The more extreme measures does not mean the virus is as bad as SARS though.

It's interesting that no one is able to just concede the obvious point that theres a lot of scaremongering here when you look at the data for this versus 2009 H1N1, and the level of criticism the US gets for that. Everyone just wants to pivot to something else.

Just acknowledge what I thought was a pretty self evident point, then you can go back to bashing China.

Last edited by Mijin; 02-07-2020 at 10:27 PM.
  #105  
Old 02-07-2020, 10:58 PM
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Everyone just wants to pivot to something else.
BTW I'm aware that some might accuse me of pivoting on to h1n1.
But the difference here though is proportionality in media coverage is the point I've joined the thread to make. I'm not using it as an ad hoc "Look, squirrel!" to avoid conceding some other point.

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  #106  
Old 02-08-2020, 12:58 AM
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I'm just going by the numbers. Outside of hubei it looks like a pretty normal, even mild, strain of the flu virus. Within hubei there's more uncertainty and it seems the numbers could be very high, but this is still not unusual for a new outbreak.

Regarding your question, let me be clear, coronavirus *is* serious, I'm talking about having some proportionality in how it's covered.
China is pulling out all the stops to extinguish this virus. They don't want what happened with SARS to happen again, and they should be commended on that. The more extreme measures does not mean the virus is as bad as SARS though.

It's interesting that no one is able to just concede the obvious point that theres a lot of scaremongering here when you look at the data for this versus 2009 H1N1, and the level of criticism the US gets for that. Everyone just wants to pivot to something else.

Just acknowledge what I thought was a pretty self evident point, then you can go back to bashing China.
If you've read my previous posts I haven't bashed China's response. I've given the country much credit for reacting to the irisis. China can do things most Western countries can't. And by most I mean all.

With that said, what you're responding to is a post regarding the death of a doctor who was sanctioned (politically) for raising the alarm. The government of China tried to suppress the seriousness of it.

Any statistics from the Chinese government are at their discretion. That is the reason I posted a response involving the death of a whistle blower.

We really don't know what the real death toll is. All we know is China is shutting down entire cities to stop the spread.

So... do we look at government statics or do we look at the actions of the government?

As a general rule, actions speak louder than words. If that rule applies then China is telegraphing a serious problem.

Last edited by Magiver; 02-08-2020 at 01:00 AM.
  #107  
Old 02-08-2020, 01:16 AM
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Sorry if already covered upthread, but how exactly does this coronavirus kill? By sepsis + organ failure + organ shutdown? By causing fluid buildup edema in the lungs that drowns?
  #108  
Old 02-08-2020, 03:57 AM
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I'm not entirely clear on it - the mainstream media doesn't seem to have much on that sort of detail and I didn't think to ask last night when my Dr. Sister and I were discussing this (she has access to more factual medical information than I do). However, what I have gleaned is that it can kill by causing widespread pneumonia/inflammation in the lungs which suffocates you one way or another, or perhaps alternatively by a more widespread inflammatory response where your immune system over-reacts and winds up causing so much damage it kills you.

Neither effect is unique to this virus - that sort of thing can be seen in a lot of illnesses. And, of course, a secondary infection in a weakened body can also carry you off. Likewise, having something else amiss like heart disease, diabetes, or the like can also make it more likely this viral infection can kill you, but that's not uncommon with other diseases, either.

One thing about this illness is that many patients seem to be coping with the infection for 5-6 days, then take a severe turn for the worse. So, there may be nearly a week where the person doesn't feel that sick (and might continue going to work and so forth, thereby spreading the virus) THEN they get really, really ill. Also, some show atypical symptoms at first so while they may be sick they aren't obviously ill with a respiratory virus, then around day 5 or 6 they can symptoms that are more closely associated with severe "novel coronavirus". The New York Times reported one patient initially put in a surgical ward with significant abdominal pain rather than respiratory symptoms who would up infecting over a dozen other people, as an example of this.

One reason I think that the death rate is higher in Wuhan and its province is that the medical system there is overwhelmed. Sure, you can build another building and equip it as a hospital, but you need trained medical people to staff it and you only have so many, they take longer to generate than a new pre-fab building. What that means, in my view, is that the death/complication rate will continue to remain low anywhere that there are few affected people (such as is the case outside of China) but if any of those other spot cases blooms into a local epidemic you're going to see higher rates of problems once the local medical system starts to come under stress from number of cases. Which is why it's important to try to contain these outbreaks as much as possible.

I'm also concerned about the cruise ships under quarantine - it's not a simple "two weeks and you can go home", I'm pretty sure it's going to be a quarantine of "two weeks past the last infection", which can turn into quite a lengthy period of time. And infection control in a densely populated closed system like a cruise ship. Add in problems of re-supply of everything needed and a topping of folks who came onto the cruise with medical problems that need daily medication and the normal rate of people getting sick/injured/heart attacks/etc. in such settings and... well, I'm really glad I'm not on a cruise ship under quarantine.
  #109  
Old 02-08-2020, 06:31 AM
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...
I'm also concerned about the cruise ships under quarantine - it's not a simple "two weeks and you can go home", I'm pretty sure it's going to be a quarantine of "two weeks past the last infection", which can turn into quite a lengthy period of time. And infection control in a densely populated closed system like a cruise ship. Add in problems of re-supply of everything needed and a topping of folks who came onto the cruise with medical problems that need daily medication and the normal rate of people getting sick/injured/heart attacks/etc. in such settings and... well, I'm really glad I'm not on a cruise ship under quarantine.
I'm also glad not to be on a quarantined cruise ship. But so long as the world economy/transportation system doesn't collapse or something, and so long as there are able-bodied people on the ship, I don't think it will be a problem to keep those ships supplied. One guy in a disposable hazmat suit could ferry supplies over and crew/passengers of the cruise ship could load them on-board. Spray the supply boat and the guy in the suit with bleach when they return to the supplying ship.
  #110  
Old 02-08-2020, 11:29 AM
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There are now 40 cases in Singapore. Iím starting to get definite pressure from family members to cancel my trip there in April.
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  #111  
Old 02-08-2020, 08:31 PM
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Not much. Seems to be a pretty nasty version of the flu.
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  #112  
Old 02-09-2020, 06:18 AM
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Our kids had their monthly environmental group activity today. They had let people know that it was OK to skip it and there were less than half of the people there, despite the fact that no one has been in China recently.

My friend in China has several tea stores in shopping malls and figures she may not survive.

Other friends here in Taiwan are running into supply problems from China.
  #113  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:24 AM
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Yeah, the economic consequences of this are going to be HUGE, even if it's successfully contained next week.
  #114  
Old 02-09-2020, 01:56 PM
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I'm just waiting for the next zoo gorilla to be shot, or the next mass murder spree to happen, and then we'll all forget about the tequila virus. Americans are overgrown babies. Look over here, look over here! Hey, now look over here! Lol.
  #115  
Old 02-09-2020, 07:19 PM
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Yeah, the economic consequences of this are going to be HUGE, even if it's successfully contained next week.
"next week" is not "next week."

Some people are allowed to go to work today, but most are work for home. The ones that can go to work, have a residence permit for that locale and can show they did not leave during the past 14 days. So, imagine this, you have a factory with a lot of managers from all over the world, and 20% line workers that qualify as local. That means, you're looking at factory open date + 14 more days minimum before you have a quorum to really get back to work. And if your downstream suppliers are not back up and running, your just in time system now has a shortage. And if your downstream suppliers, who have been suffering from the trade war, go out of business, then you have a supply interruption.

If things get back to pre-Chinese New Year level by the end of May, IMHO that will be a miracle
  #116  
Old 02-09-2020, 07:59 PM
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As I understand it, it's less fatal than influenza, and I'm not particularly worried about influenza.
So, not too concerned about the Wuhan coronavirus.
  #117  
Old 02-09-2020, 08:09 PM
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How concerned am I about this Coronavirus? Not at all. West Nile didn't kill me and various iterations of flu didn't either.
  #118  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:30 PM
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"next week" is not "next week."

Some people are allowed to go to work today, but most are work for home. The ones that can go to work, have a residence permit for that locale and can show they did not leave during the past 14 days. So, imagine this, you have a factory with a lot of managers from all over the world, and 20% line workers that qualify as local. That means, you're looking at factory open date + 14 more days minimum before you have a quorum to really get back to work. And if your downstream suppliers are not back up and running, your just in time system now has a shortage. And if your downstream suppliers, who have been suffering from the trade war, go out of business, then you have a supply interruption.

If things get back to pre-Chinese New Year level by the end of May, IMHO that will be a miracle
I said "next week" as an exaggerated way of saying "sooner than is actually possible". Yes, I know that this is a massive massive hit to productivity. Not just in China, in all the world, since we are so interconnected these days.
  #119  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:47 PM
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As I understand it, it's less fatal than influenza, and I'm not particularly worried about influenza.
So, not too concerned about the Wuhan coronavirus.
It's not. It's far more fatal than the flu, 2%+ vs 0.10%. The flu has killed more people but only because 5-20% of people (at least in the US) get the flu every year so we're talking 16-64 million people infected in the US alone.
  #120  
Old 02-09-2020, 10:19 PM
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I'm just waiting for the next zoo gorilla to be shot, or the next mass murder spree to happen, and then we'll all forget about the tequila virus. Americans are overgrown babies. Look over here, look over here! Hey, now look over here! Lol.
This often comes as a surprise but there are more than Americans in the world and even on the Dope.
  #121  
Old 02-10-2020, 03:56 AM
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As I understand it, it's less fatal than influenza, and I'm not particularly worried about influenza.
This is incorrect. While the flu has killed more people in absolute numbers, the flu infects millions of people every year.

You are much, much less likely to catch the new corona virus, but if you do, your chances of dying are MUCH greater than if you had the flu. Far fewer people in absolute numbers have died of the new virus because only tens of thousands have been infected.

The fact that many more people in numbers have died of flu is being put out there, I believe, in part to calm fears about the new virus and also in a hope that people will take ordinary influenza more seriously. In fact, basic precautions like washing your hands will help protect you against many illnesses and it would be a great thing if people in general were more diligent about this sort of thing.

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So, not too concerned about the Wuhan coronavirus.
Nor should you be, unless you're currently in China or on an affected cruise ship. The vast majority of people are not at risk at this time, and hopefully never will be.
  #122  
Old 02-10-2020, 05:31 AM
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The number of infected on the cruise ship in Japan has hit 130 and they have only tested 336 people, with Japan saying they can’t test everyone.

What a nightmare for those involved.
  #123  
Old 02-10-2020, 05:56 AM
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Yeah, the economic consequences of this are going to be HUGE, even if it's successfully contained next week.
Yep; having the whole country take a week-long holiday for Chinese new year is crazy and disruptive enough as it is. Making the whole country take several weeks off, then essentially under curfew after that, is some of the biggest disruption to a major economy ever seen, outside of total war.

What's going to be interesting too is what the government will do to try to assuage the economic hit. The government has a lot of power and capital and you can be absolutely sure that they will try to use it. I would not be at all surprised to see mandatory 6-day working weeks for the whole country, and hundreds of billions of dollars investment projects, once the virus appears under control.
  #124  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:56 AM
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Maybe 1 -- I have a shipment of coin canisters coming from China that might get delayed by the disruption to international trade/travel.
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  #125  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:06 AM
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The number of infected on the cruise ship in Japan has hit 130 and they have only tested 336 people, with Japan saying they canít test everyone.
The resources might not be available to do this ... but I wonder if it's possible just to medically treat everyone on the ship as if they had coronavirus and not worry about testing anyone else?

Question: Is it known yet whether or not a high percentage of known infected persons develop only mild symptoms? IOW, is this coronavirus the kind of illness where out of 100 people that get infected:
  • 95 have sniffles, post-nasal drip, and a 100.5 fever and never get any worse
  • 3 are positively miserable -- upper respiratory distress, fever over 102, diarrhea, etc. -- but they ultimately regain their health
  • 2 succumb to the virus and pass away
  #126  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:16 AM
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I live in shanghai. As I posted in the other forum, I started out concerned about this but I think the way this is being spun internationally is out of all proportion.
10,000 Americans have died of flu this winter season. All indications are that this new coronavirus has a similar level of risk to a strain of flu -- that's not a good thing, and so China is doing broadly the right thing on pulling out all the stops to nip it in the bud.

But the way this is being covered on international media while ignoring current deadly infections, and the harsh treatment of Chinese, is not justified.
Yeah but the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% while the coronavirus is at 2-4%.

Is Beijing under any kind of lockdown?
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  #127  
Old 02-10-2020, 02:51 PM
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Question: Is it known yet whether or not a high percentage of known infected persons develop only mild symptoms? IOW, is this coronavirus the kind of illness where out of 100 people that get infected:
  • 95 have sniffles, post-nasal drip, and a 100.5 fever and never get any worse
  • 3 are positively miserable -- upper respiratory distress, fever over 102, diarrhea, etc. -- but they ultimately regain their health
  • 2 succumb to the virus and pass away
Stumbled upon a link that addresses my question. Looking at the Wuhan coronavirus from a glass-half-full perspective, 4 out of 5 people infected will get only mild cold symptoms (CNBC 2/10/2020):

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10:34 am: WHO officials say 15% of all patients get pneumonia
The World Health Organizationís Dr. Sylvia Briand told reporters the disease produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of the cases theyíve seen so far. About 15% of the people who have contracted the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care.
  #128  
Old 02-10-2020, 02:53 PM
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Yeah but the flu has a mortality rate of 0.1% while the coronavirus is at 2-4%.
The coronavirus mortality rate is going to drop like a stone at some point, won't it? With so many infected apparently having mild symptoms ... there are probably many people carrying it around who've never been identified and may never be. "I had a nasty cold toward the end of December :shrug: "
  #129  
Old 02-10-2020, 03:18 PM
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The resources might not be available to do this ... but I wonder if it's possible just to medically treat everyone on the ship as if they had coronavirus and not worry about testing anyone else?
Not sure what you're thinking about there - there isn't a medication for this thing, it's all about supportive care. Facial tissues and cough drops? Sure, we can pass those out. But it's not like everyone is going to wind up in intensive care on a respirator. It's looking like most people don't need to be in a hospital, what they need is the standard rest and fluids of most corona virus infections. And to be quarantined so as not to infect others.
  #130  
Old 02-10-2020, 03:55 PM
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The coronavirus mortality rate is going to drop like a stone at some point, won't it? With so many infected apparently having mild symptoms ... there are probably many people carrying it around who've never been identified and may never be. "I had a nasty cold toward the end of December :shrug: "
Exactly; and the highest mortality rate by far is being reported within overstressed Hubei.
We would expect mild cases in the epicenter to be under-reported, because of difficulty in obtaining medical care but also patients being reluctant to go to hospitals -- perceived as extremely dangerous places to be -- until they absolutely need to go.
And therefore the apparent mortality rate would appear higher there.
  #131  
Old 02-10-2020, 07:06 PM
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It's not. It's far more fatal than the flu, 2%+ vs 0.10%. The flu has killed more people but only because 5-20% of people (at least in the US) get the flu every year so we're talking 16-64 million people infected in the US alone.
Ignorance fought. Thank you.
  #132  
Old 02-17-2020, 06:43 PM
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So...the Westerdam cruise ship finally found a country, Cambodia, willing to let them dock, and they just let the passengers go without any sort of quarantine. And now one passenger definitely is positive for the coronavirus, and her husband has pneumonia, so he's probably positive too. I hope not too many of the other 598 American passengers who are coming home have it too...
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Old 02-17-2020, 07:41 PM
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Well, that's not going to end well... Will most like result in some new outbreak clusters.
  #134  
Old 02-17-2020, 08:22 PM
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Awesome.
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Old 02-17-2020, 08:47 PM
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Hearing about the cruise ships that aren't letting anyone off is a little off-putting, as we've got a cruise scheduled in May. Then again, it's pretty far out, time-wise, plus we're sailing for Bermuda out of NJ, so I expect the chances of anyone coming from China for a week-long cruise is pretty small.

Mostly, I just imagine being trapped on a ship with thousands of pissed-off travelers and a few sickies - not much of a vacation...
mrAru and I discussed it [though our cruise isn't until next Feb, our 30th anniversary] it wouldn't' be that big a deal to us - we always get a handicapped rigged balcony stateroom so it has a bit more floorspace than the normal balcony cabin for 2 people. Additionally, oddly enough we go on cruises so he can hit ports and ship/play tourist, do fun stuff like swim with rays or bask on a beach and people watch - well and food too =) Since I take along about 500 tea bags, plenty of powdered splenda and plenty of powdered lemon packets, and I would guess they would keep the coffee and fixings coming, we can bask on the balcony and people watch the pier - much like what we do now.
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I'm also concerned about the cruise ships under quarantine - it's not a simple "two weeks and you can go home", I'm pretty sure it's going to be a quarantine of "two weeks past the last infection", which can turn into quite a lengthy period of time. And infection control in a densely populated closed system like a cruise ship. Add in problems of re-supply of everything needed and a topping of folks who came onto the cruise with medical problems that need daily medication and the normal rate of people getting sick/injured/heart attacks/etc. in such settings and... well, I'm really glad I'm not on a cruise ship under quarantine.
I do the recommended thing and bring my actual medication bottles [well with vials of insulin it is sort of required =)] so I tend to bring my 3 month fresh supply ... so I am not overly worried about running out of meds any time soon. But I do see that as a valid issue for most people who just bring their 1 week/2 week supply.
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The number of infected on the cruise ship in Japan has hit 130 and they have only tested 336 people, with Japan saying they canít test everyone.

What a nightmare for those involved.
Is it a buccal swab or a blood test? How can a *major* modern country not be able to push 500 tests through a lab?
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  #136  
Old 02-18-2020, 01:27 AM
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So...the Westerdam cruise ship finally found a country, Cambodia, willing to let them dock, and they just let the passengers go without any sort of quarantine. And now one passenger definitely is positive for the coronavirus, and her husband has pneumonia, so he's probably positive too. I hope not too many of the other 598 American passengers who are coming home have it too...
First, they have to find a way out of Cambodia. 'More countries will not let us fly through': Hundreds from Westerdam cruise ship stuck in Cambodia
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There was a moment of what seemed like sweet relief when passengers were able to disembark from Holland America's MS Westerdam after being turned away from multiple ports [in Philippines, Japan, Guam and Thailand]. But things took a turn when a passenger from the ship was diagnosed with coronavirus on her journey home.

As a result, hundreds of passengers and crew members, now docked in Cambodia, are finding themselves in limbo once again.
OP: How concerned are we, personally? Not much; but we still have a day to cancel a trip to a populated area.
  #137  
Old 02-18-2020, 04:05 AM
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Is it a buccal swab or a blood test? How can a *major* modern country not be able to push 500 tests through a lab?
Apparently there is a shortage of specific materials needed for the specific test. Remember, this test didn't even exist a couple months ago, so there's no backlog of kits to distribute. Production isn't keeping up with demand.
  #138  
Old 02-18-2020, 05:37 AM
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More have already left than remain.

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On a briefing call Monday afternoon, Dr. William Walters, the director of operational medicine at the U.S. State Department, told reporters that 260 American citizens remain in hotels in Cambodia pending onward travel, and 92 more are on board the MS Westerdam. Around 300 Americans left Cambodia after testing under their ministry of health.
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Old 02-18-2020, 11:42 PM
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Is it a buccal swab or a blood test? How can a *major* modern country not be able to push 500 tests through a lab?
Maybe they didn't want to test it?

From CNN,
Quote:
Other experts have also raised the alarm. A Japanese infectious disease specialist who visited the quarantined cruise ship alleged there is inadequate infection control on board.
"Inside the Diamond Princess, I was was so scared ... there was no way to tell where the virus was ... bureaucrats were in charge of everything," said Kentaro Iwata, an infectious disease specialist at Kobe University in a YouTube video published Tuesday.
People have argued the quarantining was a good idea, but it looks like it may not have been such a good idea after all. The total number of confirmed cases is 545. Insane.
  #140  
Old 02-19-2020, 06:17 AM
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Quarantine CAN be a good idea... but a badly done quarantine is a bad idea.

As I said up thread, a ship quarantine is NOT to protect the people on board the ship, it's to protect the people on shore.
  #141  
Old 02-19-2020, 10:33 AM
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I am not extremely worried, but more so that previous outbreaks of viri d'jour. But this is due to my circumstances...I am changing careers, and in a month or so I will be working in a hospital, touching patients. The hospital in the state where all the sickest people end up. If this virus is suspected, either I or one of my cohort will be in contact with those patients. TB worries me more though....pain in the ass gowning & masking up to go in those rooms.
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Old 02-19-2020, 01:03 PM
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Not particularly. It is sad people are dying but it happens every day for a variety of reasons (car accidents, cancer, and others).
  #143  
Old 02-19-2020, 02:49 PM
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Not particularly. It is sad people are dying but it happens every day for a variety of reasons (car accidents, cancer, and others).
This is a very infectious virus which kills 2 out of every hundred people it infects. The mortality rate dwarfs that of flu or other common respiratory illness by an order an magnitude. This number could be falsely high or low, but we might as well stay with it as an estimate. While older people are more at risk, it has killed plenty of younger people as well. It makes 1 out of 5 patients seriously ill for a prolonged period. It has a long incubation period, can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers and cases have occurred in dozens of countries, so its hard to see how it won't start spreading in North America or wherever you live. China may or not have slowed or stopped its spread only by using quarantine measures which are insanely disruptive and draconian by Western standards.

And you're not worried about it because people die in car accidents all the time?

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  #144  
Old 02-19-2020, 04:11 PM
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This is a very infectious virus which kills 2 out of every hundred people it infects. The mortality rate dwarfs that of flu or other common respiratory illness by an order an magnitude. This number could be falsely high or low, but we might as well stay with it as an estimate.
I would disagree with that, if that high estimate is being used as a jumping off point for sensationalizing.

The numbers outside of hubei are likely to be more reliable, since those medical systems are less stressed (and also it's looking at multiple provinces' / countries' data versus 1) and they are suggesting a value within the same order of magnitude as flu.

To be clear: no one wants another novel pathogen added in to the mix, so I admire (and have supported) the efforts being made to contain the spread. But no I don't think it's worth people panicking over, particularly people who are apathetic about getting a flu jab.

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Old 02-19-2020, 06:42 PM
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I would disagree with that, if that high estimate is being used as a jumping off point for sensationalizing.

The numbers outside of hubei are likely to be more reliable, since those medical systems are less stressed (and also it's looking at multiple provinces' / countries' data versus 1) and they are suggesting a value within the same order of magnitude as flu.
Sure. And of course the number of undetected mild or asymptomatic infections may be much higher, which would lower the death rate considerably.

On the other hand, the natural course of this disease seems to be a slow one (see the recent case report in the Lancet which described 10-14 days from onset of symptoms to death), so the death rate may lag behind in areas where the virus is becoming established.

Quote:
To be clear: no one wants another novel pathogen added in to the mix, so I admire (and have supported) the efforts being made to contain the spread. But no I don't think it's worth people panicking over, particularly people who are apathetic about getting a flu jab.
Nothing is worth panicking over, because it's not constructive. My point was really that some people's insouciant attitudes seem to stem from numerical illiteracy or denial rather than a calmly considered view of the situation.

Last edited by Shmendrik; 02-19-2020 at 06:42 PM.
  #146  
Old 02-19-2020, 06:53 PM
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The numbers outside of Hubei are likely to be more reliable, since those medical systems are less stressed...
But that is exactly what some of us are worried about--that the number of cases will get so high that the medical system can't handle it and consequently large numbers will die.
  #147  
Old 02-19-2020, 07:49 PM
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And that's a legitimate concern; that if secondary pockets spring up elsewhere things could ultimately get as bad as seasonal flu. That's very serious, don't get me wrong, but it's still different to the framing that's going on in the media.
I live in China, and while it's great friends and family are concerned for me, I have to tell them that, even in China, in the city im in, I'm still approximately 100x more likely to catch the flu.

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Old 02-19-2020, 07:51 PM
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And now for a word from "reality check"!

Number of new daily cases decreasing, even with the expanded liberal case definition now in use in Hubei.

Total number of worldwide deaths outside of Hubei Province: 94. Out of 13,617 identified cases. Identified case fatality rate 0.6% - only slightly higher than influenza (and still likely subject to a selection bias to the sickest cases being identified).

Number of cases considered recovered outside of Hubei: 5787. That's 42% of all identified cases outside of Hubei are already considered recovered. The recovered rate inside Hubei is under 17% to date. If the death rate outside of Hubei is lagging the recovery rate sure is not!

The virus, or minimally identifiable disease caused by the virus, has apparently NOT spread like wildfire across China outside of Hubei. And outside of Hubei identified cases are recovering more often and after fairly short courses of illness with a fraction of the case fatality rate.

There is of course reason for some concern and for appropriate actions that reduce risk. But "numerical literacy" and "calm consideration" leads to a conclusion that the these actions are, appropriately, reducing a fairly tiny risk to one even smaller, because the risk is of something potentially big. Rational thought would have people even more concerned about much larger established risks that can be reduced with relatively little efforts.
  #149  
Old 02-19-2020, 07:58 PM
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And that's a legitimate concern; that if secondary pockets spring up elsewhere things could ultimately get as bad as seasonal flu. That's very serious, don't get me wrong, but it's still different to the framing that's going on in the media.
Again, reports in the medical literature, not the popular media, suggest that this is much worse than the seasonal flu.




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  #150  
Old 02-19-2020, 08:02 PM
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Which one? The hong Kong paper which has already been shown to be *way* off in its predictions?
(The paper itself is correctly tentative in its speculations, but it got reported in much of the media as "experts say")

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