Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #201  
Old 03-01-2020, 12:44 AM
China Guy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,931
Shit, American's are not going to follow quarantines. And there is no enforcement mechanisim. China quarantined Wuhan, which would be equivalent of quarantining the entire Seattle-Takoma area and all of Washington State. Ya, right, like that's gonna happen.

First death in the US occurred less than 5 miles from my house.
  #202  
Old 03-01-2020, 01:28 AM
rowrrbazzle's Avatar
rowrrbazzle is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 1999
Location: Chicago
Posts: 8,782
Quote:
Originally Posted by squeegee View Post
Seriously? I mean, you're serious, but that seems extreme to me. If we're at the point you can't buy food, things have devolved entirely worse than your next meal.
Probably his having 3 weeks of food is the concern not that stores will be empty, but that he might want to avoid public places where he might catch the virus. That's very unlikely, too, but it doesn't really hurt anything to take some precautions.

It's actually wise to have emergency supplies for a few days. In case of extreme need, you'll be better off with even a few supplies rather than none. You won't depend completely on emergency services, and the services that you don't use will be available for others.
  #203  
Old 03-01-2020, 02:47 AM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,981
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstro View Post
I'm not hunkering down in a bunker or something, but I am trying to get myself prepared. Personally I am not worried about dying. I am worried about being so sick that I want to die. I live alone. The last time I was sick enough to be driven to bed for multiple days, I had a roommate who--despite being sick herself--was able to care for me. We both had the flu, and it was an awful experience. So I'm not looking forward to going through days, potentially weeks of debilitating flu-like illness all by myself, and possibly being unable to get medical care because everyone and their mama is in the ER.
^ This is me.

I live alone. I'm not as young as I used to be. I dread being sick and alone.

Although the prospect of being off work and in my own home for two weeks doesn't strike me as ALL bad - provided I stay well or only mildly ill - I do have concern about the reactions of other people such as panic, racism, fear, and so on. Not just from the unwashed masses but also from governments.

I have concerns about shortages of various things I want and need.

I dread the longer term economic fallout from this, because after everyone has been through this particular pandemic we'll still all need to pay our bills, which will be a problem for those who have lost wages or jobs and that will have broad consequences.
  #204  
Old 03-01-2020, 03:13 AM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,981
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
This is the kind of thing Iím asking about. Talking about cities being shut down.
There is not talk of cities shutting down, cities actually have shut down. That's what makes this time around more serious. We don't do that for regular flu even though flu is dangerous and kills tens of thousands every year. So... yes, it is serious.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
This kind of thing makes me think people believe that this is an apocalypse-level event, and as far as I know, while it may be serious and people are dying, it doesnít seem to be. People are buying stores out of masks and hand sanitizer. What Iím asking is, is this a rational, proportional reaction? Because if it is, I want to know, because that would be far FAR beyond my understanding of the situation.
Are the reactions to covid-19 proportional to the risk? I think we may have to have to wait on that and let the future decide.

Meanwhile - there is this threat and people want to do something to protect themselves and their family. Recently, the CDC said "be prepared" but then gave no suggestions as to how to do that - which is not exactly helpful. So people flailed around, saw folks in China wearing masks, then ran out and bought masks which turned out to be a hindrance to medical workers. So the surgeon general said "buy hand sanitizer". So that's what people did. If the authorities told people to do jumping jacks on street corners you'd see some of that, too. For some reason, governments aren't very good at harnessing this energy in a positive manner.

Based on working in a glorified grocery store, in addition to buying hand sanitizer people are also stocking up on soap, toilet paper, paper towels, OTC flu and cold medicine, canned goods, dry goods, water, and beverages. In other words, taking to heart the "have two weeks of stuff in your home for just in case" which is good advice in general, to have emergency stores, and if they aren't used for this particular crisis they'll either be there for the next one or wind up in a food pantry or something.

(As it happens, I usually have a week's worth anyway, so for me this is just a quick inventory and topping off one or two items. For other folks it's more of a production.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
Others are saying that coronavirus hasnít been more deadly than far more common causes and disease so far.
Those people are wrong. This virus is about 10-20 times more lethal than regular flu (there are, of course, exceptional flus, like the 1918 one) based on current data. Which still means that 98% of people who catch this will be just fine in the end, and some of them aren't even aware they have the disease because in them it causes only mild or no symptoms. The problem is that all of us know someone we care about - it might be parents, a friend, or even ourselves - that would be at high risk of complications or dying from this.

The other problem is that this is a new virus - no one has had it before, no one has any resistance or immunity. Instead of happens with the flu most years - a certain level of illness but not enough to bring a community to a halt - this has the potential to cause a high percentage of an area's population to all get sick to a debilitating degree all at once. Even if all those people get well and fully recover, the mere fact you have so many people all at once getting sick is enough to seriously impact society. I don't think that's happened yet, but it's one reason why even just slowing down the rate of new infections has some use.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
All Iím saying is that by the information Iíve gotten, I donít have any reason to believe the people buying out the stores over them.
There's a certain sort of person who engages in panic buying every time we have a frickin' snow storm. This is just a more widespread instance of the phenomena

In sum:

Yes, this is serious.

Yes, some people are over-reacting

You should be concerned and make sure your emergency stores/plans are up to date, then go about your daily life as normal until you need to do otherwise.
  #205  
Old 03-01-2020, 03:20 AM
FoieGrasIsEvil's Avatar
FoieGrasIsEvil is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Land of Cheese Coneys
Posts: 18,228
Wow Broomstick. Good posts. Sobering, but good.
__________________
Posting From Above The Browns
  #206  
Old 03-01-2020, 03:30 AM
PookahMacPhellimey is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Italy
Posts: 2,223
I'm in a medium-sized city about 20 km from one of little towns in lockdown and I just want to point out that even when your city "closes down" it doesn't mean they wall it off and leave the inhabitants to fight for the last remaining scraps of food. No one has gone hungry, they've had supermarkets restocked and people within the community have been bringing food to elderly and sick people.

I know it's slightly strawman-ish to point this out, but I'm in one of those no public gathering zones nearby and I'm not stocking up. My hands are a bit dry from washing and the university course I'm teaching is starting late, but most people not in education or entertainment are working as normal. It's just that you can't get any conversation that isn't about viruses for more than ten minutes.

Yes, it is serious, yes, the efforts to contain it are a good move. No, it's not the Zombie apocalypse.
  #207  
Old 03-01-2020, 03:38 AM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,981
Quote:
Originally Posted by squeegee View Post
Seriously? I mean, you're serious, but that seems extreme to me. If we're at the point you can't buy food, things have devolved entirely worse than your next meal.
I doubt that there will be NO food, but disruption of supply lines is a real possibility.

Remember - international travel is shutting down. Not just of people, but of things. If the borders close then some items are going to be hard to obtain. There are already shortages of stuff that comes from China, not so much food as widgets for industry (although with 70% of the world's garlic coming from China that might get a bit sparse if this keeps going on). Coca-cola said that making diet soda will be a problem due to most of the artificial sweeteners coming from China, and they aren't being shipped right now.

Do you like... oh... avocados? A lot of those come from Mexico. If that border closes no more avocados for awhile outside of the California avocado season. Oh, by the way - if California becomes a hot spot don't be surprised if the government attempts to close that border with other states, in which case people in California might have avocados, but not anyone else. No one is going to die from lack of avocados, of course, but then you'll have to have something else for dinner.

This sort of thing - stores out of goods and re-supply days away - can happen with localized disasters brought on by extreme weather, earthquakes, wildifires, etc. but in recent decades have been mostly localized events (mostly - there have also been exceptions). This time around larger areas could be affected and the delays in fixing supply lines longer.

Rinse and repeat for a whole lot of other stuff.

A lot of the fresh fruit and vegetables we take for granted these days may become temporarily unavailable due to interruptions in shipping. There will be something to eat, but you might have less choice.

All of which might lead some people to freak out and strip the store shelves on any given day. Which might take a day or three to resupply and meanwhile you'll probably want dinner. If you have a small stash you'll have dinner and the supply line interruption will be an annoyance and not more serious than that.

So... yes, two weeks is being recommended. If you have space for storage and funds for supplies you can do more than that, but a moderate approach makes more sense in most areas. Some folks I know have not gone out on a massive shopping trip but have just been picking up a few extra items every time they do their normal shopping which is, in my opinion, a more rational response and much less of a stain on the supply lines.

Quote:
Originally Posted by squeegee View Post
In what way? What are you recommending? Stockpiling Spam?
Only stockpile Spam if you like spam.

I'm not the one you asked, but I'd recommend a variety of canned meats (if you eat meat), beans (if you eat beans), some boxed meals that require minimal additional ingredients, soups, stews, vegetables, and fruit. They keep a long time on the shelf and will provide reasonable meals and variety. Likewise, things like rice, noodles, and so forth. Stocking up on fresh fruits and vegetables is kind of pointless unless it's something like potatoes which will keep for awhile IF you have a proper place to store them.

OTC cold/flu meds are also a good choice if you don't have them already. That means pain/fever relievers, decongestants, etc.

If you take daily medication and can get a reserve do so, because, again, there may be interruptions in supply.
  #208  
Old 03-01-2020, 03:44 AM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,981
Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
Shit, American's are not going to follow quarantines.
True. It would be like herding cats. Agitated cats that very much want to be elsewhere.

Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
And there is no enforcement mechanisim.
The government would have to declare martial law and send in the military. Not likely. Not unless things get really bad and by that time the cat will be out of the bag. (Guess this is the "cat metaphor" post).
  #209  
Old 03-01-2020, 06:11 AM
AK84 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 16,802
Even 50 or so years ago, people were used to it. LEA and the military trained for it and had detailed plans how to effect it.
The populace was mentally prepared for it.
These days, not so much. LEA have no recent experience and no institutional memory. The military probably has plans, anti Bio warfare training is essentially pandemic management after all. Most of the populace has no idea how a quarantine works and little inclination to adhere to it.
  #210  
Old 03-01-2020, 06:40 AM
Monty's Avatar
Monty is offline
Straight Dope Science Advisory Board
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Beijing, China
Posts: 24,083
I hope I got the coding right for this post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PookahMacPhellimey View Post
I'm in a medium-sized city about 20 km from one of little towns in lockdown and I just want to point out that even when your city "closes down" it doesn't mean they wall it off and leave the inhabitants to fight for the last remaining scraps of food. No one has gone hungry, they've had supermarkets restocked and people within the community have been bringing food to elderly and sick people.

I know it's slightly strawman-ish to point this out, but I'm in one of those no public gathering zones nearby and I'm not stocking up. My hands are a bit dry from washing and the university course I'm teaching is starting late, but most people not in education or entertainment are working as normal. It's just that you can't get any conversation that isn't about viruses for more than ten minutes.

Yes, it is serious, yes, the efforts to contain it are a good move. No, it's not the Zombie apocalypse.

I'm in Beijing and the city looks almost like a ghost town. There is now some traffic, more than there was two weeks ago. Most of the grocery stores are open. Some of the mini-marts are open. And even some restaurants are open, some even for sit-down service. Shopping malls with grocery stores are open, but only for customers to get to the grocery stores and restaurants in the mall. To enter any of these places, even outdoor shopping areas, you have to get your temperature checked.

Everybody is required now to wear masks when going outside. And you cannot leave your community (think apartment complex, or homeowners association) without showing a pass. You must also show that pass and have your temperture checked. Even one of the larger farmer markets not so far from my apartment is operating, but you have to get your temperature checked on the way in. Life has to go on, and some farmers' markets have appeared on the sidewalks in a number of neighborhoods. Note that these, of course, are not "wet markets".

Speaking of walling off, some of the "wall-less" communities now are walled off. But they are not imprisoned! The walls are in place to ensure there is only one entry and exit for each community.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China announced that there will be a further reduction of flights to and from certain areas of China this week, but they have not announced which flights will be canceled. They also announced that some of the declaration forms will be done via smartphone apps.

My school started classes on time, but all online. The kicker is that the Chinese teachers have live online chat sessions with the students following the regular class schedules, while we foreign teacchers are doing our classes via message board. The majority of my students can't be bothered with doing anything related to English at the best of times, so my time is now spent proving to my department head and the parents that their kids really did not do any homework. Oh, well; such is life.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Broomstick View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
Shit, American's are not going to follow quarantines.

True. It would be like herding cats. Agitated cats that very much want to be elsewhere.

Or even apostrophe rules! (Sorry, CC. I just felt like injecting some humor since I'm starting to go stir crazy.)


Quote:
Quote:
And there is no enforcement mechanisim.

The government would have to declare martial law and send in the military. Not likely. Not unless things get really bad and by that time the cat will be out of the bag. (Guess this is the "cat metaphor" post).

As it turns out, China already had an enforcement measure in place well before this situation occurred. The neighborhood committees (NC) are in charge of the communities in their area of responsibility. This past friday, the NC for my area came by to check on all of us here. It was for health and welfare checks for everyone, but alos concentrating on the number of elderly people here (a lot of families still have grandparents residing with them), but if anyone were found to be violating the rules, they'd be quarantined at a central location, not at home. I appreciated them asking me how everyone in the family was, but I was not thrilled when they informed me that my wife cannot return to Beijing from Korea until further notice.
  #211  
Old 03-01-2020, 07:20 AM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 28,856
86,992 confirmed infections
2,979 dead
42,606 recovered
  #212  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:06 AM
puzzlegal's Avatar
puzzlegal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 5,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackknifed Juggernaut View Post
I think that the biggest goal is to prevent it from being another infection that humans will have to deal with forever...
I'm pretty sure it's too late for that, and I'm wondering I we should be rethinking quarantine, etc., Because of that.

Of course, allowing the spread may help the healthcare system keep up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty View Post
...
Everybody is required now to wear masks when going outside. And you cannot leave your community (think apartment complex, or homeowners association) without showing a pass. You must also show that pass and have your temperture checked. Even one of the larger farmer markets not so far from my apartment is operating, but you have to get your temperature checked on the way in. Life has to go on, and some farmers' markets have appeared on the sidewalks in a number of neighborhoods. Note that these, of course, are not "wet markets".

Speaking of walling off, some of the "wall-less" communities now are walled off. But they are not imprisoned! The walls are in place to ensure there is only one entry and exit for each community.

....
I don't think that's physically possible in most of the US. Lower population density, sprawling suburbs. I don't think we have the capacity to make enough concrete to wall off most suburban communities.
  #213  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:12 AM
Monty's Avatar
Monty is offline
Straight Dope Science Advisory Board
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: Beijing, China
Posts: 24,083
The brand new walls are those metal construction site walls used here in China. But, yeah, it's likely not possible in many places. And, believe it or not, there really are sparsely populated areas in China.
  #214  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:29 AM
monstro is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Richmond, VA
Posts: 21,435
squeegee, yes three weeks. Granted I do not have enough food to have five-course meals every day. I have just enough shelf-stable milk, cereal, soups, rice, oatmeal, dried fruit, and juice to get me through illness and quarantine (self-imposed or otherwise). These are the kind of foods I eat anyway, so it's not like they will go to waste if nothing should come to pass.

I'm not anticipating that my big-ass city will be shut down (though I'm not ruling it out either). I am just expecting frenzy and pandemonium. I would hate to find myself having to deal with frenzy and pandemonium when I am well, let alone when I'm super sick.
  #215  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:39 AM
ThelmaLou's Avatar
ThelmaLou is offline
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Neither here nor there
Posts: 17,576
Quote:
Originally Posted by Broomstick View Post
...The government would have to declare martial law and send in the military. Not likely. ....
Unless Someone High Up in Gummint thinks that would be the thing to do...
  #216  
Old 03-01-2020, 09:21 AM
puzzlegal's Avatar
puzzlegal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 5,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monty View Post
The brand new walls are those metal construction site walls used here in China. But, yeah, it's likely not possible in many places. And, believe it or not, there really are sparsely populated areas in China.
I'm sure we don't have enough of those too wall off the suburbs, either.
Although i suppose we could have police check points on major roads. Americans don't walk.

...
Yeah, Tibet and inner Mongolia are both technically part of China, of course there are sparsely populated areas. But i get the impression a larger fraction of the Chinese population is more densely packed than in the US.
  #217  
Old 03-01-2020, 10:24 AM
monstro is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Richmond, VA
Posts: 21,435
Leaper, this is a good article that explains why COVID-19 is worrisome. It explains that governmental fears aren't just based on the fatality rate, but on the estimated 20% hospitalization rate combined with the high infection rate. The flu infects between 2 to 11% of the population and has a 0.9% hospitalization rate. Obviously we have enough hospital beds to handle this load, especially since the cases aren't usually happening all at once. But if we're talking about 30% (just to throw out a realistic number) of the population being infected and 20% of those cases will be severe enough to warrant weeks of hospital care? We simply don't have enough beds. I suspect there will be lots of folks who will die not because the virus killed them, but because of complications that could have been avoided if they were in the hospital.

I believe that the current fatality rates may be exaggerated due to the underreporting of infections. But I am also not very optimistic about what's happening/going to happen in the US when the shit hits the fan. China mobilized in a way that I don't see Americans doing. Like, I don't see us building a bunch of hospitals practically overnight like they did in Wuhan. We also don't have governments that are willing and able to barricade people in their homes for weeks on end. No, Americans have a system that compels people to work even when they are ill and shedding viruses all over the place. And then there is shit like this. So while I don't think we'll have the double-digit fatality rates that have been reported in some places (Iran), I don't think we will have a piddly rate. I suspect among industralized countries, ours will be one of the higher ones.
  #218  
Old 03-01-2020, 11:33 AM
Jackknifed Juggernaut is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Lenni Lenape Land
Posts: 6,095
It seems like the daily totals have leveled off a bit. Is that due to it being a weekend?
__________________
"That's right. Even my feet have balls." Stephen Colbert 9/28/10
  #219  
Old 03-01-2020, 04:37 PM
DSeid's Avatar
DSeid is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 23,581
Two interesting news items in today's NYT.

First that the fact that the two cases in Washington state seem to have one bug descended form another which implies something like 300 to 500 people by now infected out there in that region unidentified, including some likely already recovered.
Quote:
Washington had the United Statesí first confirmed case of coronavirus, announced by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Jan. 20. Based on an analysis of the virusís genetic sequence, another case that surfaced in the state and was announced on Friday probably was descended from that first case.

The two people live in the same county, but are not known to have had contact with one another, and the second case occurred well after the first would no longer be expected to be contagious. So the genetic findings suggest that the virus has been spreading through other people in the community for close to six weeks ...

... If the virus has been spreading undetected in Washington since mid-January, that could mean that anywhere from 150 to 1,500 people may have it, with about 300 to 500 people the most likely range, said Dr. Mike Famulare, a principal research scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wa., who performed the analysis. These people ďhave either been infected and recovered, or currently are infected now,Ē he said. ...

... The first patient, a man in his 30s, has recovered after being treated in a hospital isolation unit. The later patient, a teenager, had a mild enough illness to recuperate at home

According to a statement by the Snohomish Health District, the teenager was unaware that he was being tested for the coronavirus. His case came to light on Friday because he went to a clinic on Feb. 24 to be tested for the flu, and his sample was shared with the Seattle Flu Study, which tested it for a variety of pathogens including the new coronavirus. ...
Yes that implies that current fatality rates are overstated by 100 to 200 fold.


Second, we may start to find more of those cases and get a better sense of the true denominator.
Quote:
After weeks of stalled testing for the coronavirus, the United States now has enough diagnostic kits to test 75,000 people, with more on the way, Alex M. Azar II, the health and human services secretary, said on Sunday. ...

... Mr. Azar said on Sunday that the diagnostic kits, which will distributed within two weeks, represented ďa radical expansion even beyond that of the testing thatís available.Ē ...

... Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former F.D.A. commissioner, predicted that by the end of the week, public health laboratories will be able to test 10,000 samples a day, with as much as an additional 10,000 a day from academic labs. ...

... Wider testing would likely increase the number of coronavirus cases reported in the United States in the near future and give health officials a better idea of the spread of disease, Dr. Schaffner said. ...
  #220  
Old 03-01-2020, 04:56 PM
RaftPeople is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: 7-Eleven
Posts: 6,846
Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Two interesting news items in today's NYT.

First that the fact that the two cases in Washington state seem to have one bug descended form another which implies something like 300 to 500 people by now infected out there in that region unidentified, including some likely already recovered.
Yes that implies that current fatality rates are overstated by 100 to 200 fold.
My guess from the other thread:
"Final answer:
A lot of people already have it
If I were in Vegas, I would bet around 5,000 in Western Wa"

I know Mr. Science dude did actual science for his number, but I would still put money on it being higher. He probably was conservative and followed that one path, but it seems likely the virus entered Western Wa by more than one path.
  #221  
Old 03-01-2020, 05:05 PM
dtilque is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: My own private Nogero
Posts: 7,638
There's a case in Rhode Island, someone who travelled to Italy. And I thought I saw something about a case in Chicago.

And the Pope has had a cold for the past few days and everyone is wondering about him.
  #222  
Old 03-01-2020, 05:28 PM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,981
There are currently two cases in Cook County, Illinois, which is pretty much "Chicago".
  #223  
Old 03-01-2020, 05:28 PM
steatopygia's Avatar
steatopygia is online now
Experimental FOC Test Pilot
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: North Idaho mostly
Posts: 2,161
The NYT article that DSeid linked to is a little unclear about testing. It says that the CDC will have 75,000 kits available and shipped within 2 weeks. The former head of the FDC says that labs will have the ability to test 10 to 20 thousand a day by the end of the week.

Perhaps the CDC kits are bedside or office type tests. POS if you will.

There is also this, from the same article,
"Dr. Schaffner said he had a patient come in earlier this week who had developed symptoms of an upper respiratory infection after traveling to Italy, where a cluster of coronavirus infections has been observed. He referred the patient to the state laboratory, but officials there said she could not be tested because she did not meet the C.D.C. testing criteria at the time."

This was my experience, the criteria was too restrictive.
  #224  
Old 03-01-2020, 07:43 PM
Absolute is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In flight
Posts: 4,115
Warning: anecdotal information ahead.

I work for a large tech company in Silicon Valley, which has a substantial number of Chinese employees (by both ethnicity and citizenship). Since returning from the holidays in January, I and many of my friends and colleagues came down with what seemed like a bad cold or flu. For me, it started with a headache and fever, then progressed into a sore throat and runny nose, with continuing muscle aches, night sweats, headaches and fatigue. Others reported similar symptoms, although relatively few people had a strong cough.

My symptoms lasted about 2-3 weeks, including an apparent recovery at about 1 week before they returned even worse than initially.

For me, it was quite unpleasant but never bad enough to go see a doctor for what I presumed was just a particularly bad cold. Friends who did go said that their "flu test" came back negative and they were just given the usual advice to stay hydrated, etc. Of course, no one has been tested for COVID-19, since we didn't meet any of the indications.

We've all been joking that we must've gotten it anyway. I never believed that was likely, since it wasn't that bad and there wasn't much of a lower respiratory component.

But that article about the teenager from Washington is interesting - it pretty much describes my symptoms and experience exactly. And if it's really been circulating in Washington since January, you'd expect it to be floating around the Bay Area as well.

If so, it's a pretty good sign, because while it was definitely no fun it wasn't that bad in absolute terms, and it suggests the actual fatality rate will be substantially lower due to the large number of mildly symptomatic people who don't bother to get treated or tested and are omitted from the statistics.
__________________
There are no absolutes.
  #225  
Old 03-01-2020, 07:52 PM
Seanette is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 4,841
Peripheral note: at a Dollar Tree store today, I did note they seemed a bit low on inventory (not just in health care items, either), but whether that represents supply issues or employees just not having gotten around to restocking or just a heavy shopping day, I can't say for sure. It wasn't that busy when I was in there about mid-afternoon.
  #226  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:04 PM
dtilque is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: My own private Nogero
Posts: 7,638
Quote:
Originally Posted by Absolute View Post
But that article about the teenager from Washington is interesting - it pretty much describes my symptoms and experience exactly. And if it's really been circulating in Washington since January, you'd expect it to be floating around the Bay Area as well.
Oh, it's defintiely in northern California. A few days ago two people tested positive: one in Solano County and one in Santa Clara County. Both were what they call community transmission, which means there's no known link back to China or somewhere else with an outbreak. Just looking them up, I find a new report that two health workers in Solano and Alameda Counties have presumptive cases.

So it's there, it's in Washington state, it's in Oregon. It'll be in the rest of the country soon.
  #227  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:25 PM
monstro is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Richmond, VA
Posts: 21,435
It is in NYC.
  #228  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:29 PM
JohnT's Avatar
JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 24,630
Coronavirus loose in Texas after CDC releases person who tested positive, according to San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg.

https://twitter.com/Ron_Nirenberg/st...181926912?s=19
  #229  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:32 PM
JohnT's Avatar
JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 24,630
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstro View Post
I'm sure that will calm the, <checks notes>, New York Stock Exchange.
  #230  
Old 03-01-2020, 08:41 PM
Aspenglow's Avatar
Aspenglow is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Oregon
Posts: 4,756
This won't help. (Reuters)

Quote:
Health officials in Washington state said on Sunday a second person infected with the coronavirus had died there... <snip>.

The Washington death was in the Seattle area and was reported on the website of the Seattle and King County public health department. On Saturday, the same officials reported the first death from coronavirus in the United States.
  #231  
Old 03-01-2020, 10:06 PM
Snowboarder Bo's Avatar
Snowboarder Bo is online now
Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 28,856
89,071 confirmed infections
3,044 dead
45,074 recovered

Many thanks to everyone who has been posting news all day; y'all totally fucking rock!
  #232  
Old 03-01-2020, 10:56 PM
puzzlegal's Avatar
puzzlegal is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 5,543
Quote:
Originally Posted by Absolute View Post
Warning: anecdotal information ahead.

I work for a large tech company in Silicon Valley, which has a substantial number of Chinese employees (by both ethnicity and citizenship). Since returning from the holidays in January, I and many of my friends and colleagues came down with what seemed like a bad cold or flu. For me, it started with a headache and fever, then progressed into a sore throat and runny nose, with continuing muscle aches, night sweats, headaches and fatigue. Others reported similar symptoms, although relatively few people had a strong cough.

My symptoms lasted about 2-3 weeks, including an apparent recovery at about 1 week before they returned even worse than initially.

For me, it was quite unpleasant but never bad enough to go see a doctor for what I presumed was just a particularly bad cold. Friends who did go said that their "flu test" came back negative and they were just given the usual advice to stay hydrated, etc. Of course, no one has been tested for COVID-19, since we didn't meet any of the indications.

We've all been joking that we must've gotten it anyway. I never believed that was likely, since it wasn't that bad and there wasn't much of a lower respiratory component.

But that article about the teenager from Washington is interesting - it pretty much describes my symptoms and experience exactly. And if it's really been circulating in Washington since January, you'd expect it to be floating around the Bay Area as well.

If so, it's a pretty good sign, because while it was definitely no fun it wasn't that bad in absolute terms, and it suggests the actual fatality rate will be substantially lower due to the large number of mildly symptomatic people who don't bother to get treated or tested and are omitted from the statistics.
That's interesting. I wonder if you can get tested after-the-fact. Not for your benefit, but if the CDC or someone wants to track it.
  #233  
Old 03-01-2020, 11:09 PM
steatopygia's Avatar
steatopygia is online now
Experimental FOC Test Pilot
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: North Idaho mostly
Posts: 2,161
Not yet. The test is being developed.
  #234  
Old 03-02-2020, 01:10 AM
Absolute is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: In flight
Posts: 4,115
Quote:
Originally Posted by puzzlegal View Post
That's interesting. I wonder if you can get tested after-the-fact. Not for your benefit, but if the CDC or someone wants to track it.
My symptoms have been gone for a while, so I don't think that would prove anything at this point.

I'm starting to suspect that the rate of asymptomatic or mild infection has been massively underestimated, that COVID-19 is actually widespread throughout the US and the world right now, and we are only seeing reports of the most severe cases because they're the ones who get tested for it. Even countries testing more aggressively than the US are not checking everyone with a case of the sniffles.

I suspect in the next two weeks we'll discover COVID-19 is 1-2x more deadly than normal seasonal influenza but that most people just get unexceptional cold and flu symptoms and recover. Obviously this would still be serious and many people will die, but it's hardly the collapse of civilization.
__________________
There are no absolutes.
  #235  
Old 03-02-2020, 03:52 AM
Ale is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Bangkok
Posts: 5,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by Absolute View Post
My symptoms have been gone for a while, so I don't think that would prove anything at this point.

I'm starting to suspect that the rate of asymptomatic or mild infection has been massively underestimated, that COVID-19 is actually widespread throughout the US and the world right now, and we are only seeing reports of the most severe cases because they're the ones who get tested for it. Even countries testing more aggressively than the US are not checking everyone with a case of the sniffles.

I suspect in the next two weeks we'll discover COVID-19 is 1-2x more deadly than normal seasonal influenza but that most people just get unexceptional cold and flu symptoms and recover. Obviously this would still be serious and many people will die, but it's hardly the collapse of civilization.
I agree with that, the danger of the virus has been grossly overestimated.
  #236  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:51 AM
Broomstick's Avatar
Broomstick is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: NW Indiana
Posts: 29,981
The danger is more peoples' reaction to the virus, and the economic fallout, which certainly can be serious.
  #237  
Old 03-02-2020, 07:30 AM
Fear Itself is online now
Cecil's Inner Circle
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Flavortown
Posts: 36,212
Quote:
Originally Posted by Absolute View Post
My symptoms lasted about 2-3 weeks, including an apparent recovery at about 1 week before they returned even worse than initially.

For me, it was quite unpleasant but never bad enough to go see a doctor for what I presumed was just a particularly bad cold.
Colds don't typically cause a fever. More likely you had seasonal flu, which is widespread in California now.
  #238  
Old 03-02-2020, 01:25 PM
arles is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 58
Seattle/King County Update:

14 cases
5 deaths

News conference is ongoing.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle...ding-5-deaths/

Last edited by arles; 03-02-2020 at 01:28 PM. Reason: added link
  #239  
Old 03-02-2020, 01:38 PM
arles is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 58
Ugh, I wish territorial BS would stop with breaking news. During the news conference one doctor stated different figures 18 new cases and 6 deaths. It appears that depending upon where the patient is taken to a hospital (different county) they didn't report the numbers to the state. So there is an additional death in Snohomish County - and the state didn't include it in their report. They should just do a Washington State news conference and report the area rather than at the county level.
  #240  
Old 03-02-2020, 02:06 PM
Gatopescado is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: on your last raw nerve
Posts: 23,475
Ooh, my little pretty one, my viral one
When you gonna give me some time, Corona?
Ooh, you make my fever run, my motor run
Got it coming off a cruise line, Corona!
Never gonna stop, give it up, such a deathly find
I always get it up, for the touch of the sickly kind
My, my, my, aye-aye, whoa!
M-m-m-my Corona!
  #241  
Old 03-02-2020, 02:16 PM
eenerms is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Finally...Wisc...!
Posts: 3,077
Off to Bologna tomorrow.
  #242  
Old 03-02-2020, 03:13 PM
Mama Zappa is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 12,670
Quote:
Originally Posted by eenerms View Post
Off to Bologna tomorrow.
In light of the post just before yours.... My! Bologna!! (warning. Youtube)

i dropped my husband off at the nearby Metro station this morning - and the only time I've seen it that uncrowded has been on weekends. Even late evening there are usually more cars passing through. I have to assume it's due to people staying home to avoid transit.
  #243  
Old 03-02-2020, 03:36 PM
squeegee's Avatar
squeegee is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Aptos CA
Posts: 9,147
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstro View Post
squeegee, yes three weeks. Granted I do not have enough food to have five-course meals every day. I have just enough shelf-stable milk, cereal, soups, rice, oatmeal, dried fruit, and juice to get me through illness and quarantine (self-imposed or otherwise). These are the kind of foods I eat anyway, so it's not like they will go to waste if nothing should come to pass.

I'm not anticipating that my big-ass city will be shut down (though I'm not ruling it out either). I am just expecting frenzy and pandemonium. I would hate to find myself having to deal with frenzy and pandemonium when I am well, let alone when I'm super sick.
Interesting, and thanks for replying. If you count things like dried pasta and rice and canned soup, I probably always have a couple of weeks' food if I can't go out. I did just swing by the grocery store and it was pretty busy. Not mobbed, but very busy for noon on a Monday. It seems people are stockpiling already.
  #244  
Old 03-02-2020, 04:13 PM
Tatterdemalion is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 809
Quote:
Originally Posted by squeegee View Post
Interesting, and thanks for replying. If you count things like dried pasta and rice and canned soup, I probably always have a couple of weeks' food if I can't go out. I did just swing by the grocery store and it was pretty busy. Not mobbed, but very busy for noon on a Monday. It seems people are stockpiling already.
I was at the Costco this weekend, and it was a mob scene. They were rationing the bottled water. I heard the cashier tell the woman ahead of me that she was only allowed to buy 3 cases at a time.
  #245  
Old 03-02-2020, 04:21 PM
Mama Zappa is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 12,670
There is a fair bit of panic buying already.

I was at Costco Saturday and it wasn't noticeably more crowded than usual, though I wasn't looking for bottled water and we have plenty of toilet paper .

They didn't have much in the way of canned soup so I'll probably hit a grocery store this week and get a few cans - not out of panic, per se, but just to have something fairly brainless to warm up (or even eat cold if need be).

We're not panicking, but I am higher risk (60, several underlying health issues including asthma) so I'm watching things carefully. I've already told my husband that if one of us gets sick, the other moves to the guest room. I mostly work remotely but need to go to the client from time to time (usually via Metro - though I'm rethinking that) and my husband does commute via Metro routinely. Dweezil is home from college for spring break this week; I've suggested he make sure to have a few cans of soup at his school apartment, and keep his car at least half full of gas in case they send everyone home. Note that the nearest case is in NYC, 250 miles away from us, so I really doubt it'll be an issue for him down there (small town 50 miles from anything): it's much likelier we'll see infections here in the DC metro area what with the density and people from all over.
  #246  
Old 03-02-2020, 05:43 PM
Chefguy's Avatar
Chefguy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Portlandia
Posts: 43,578
Well, much as I hate to do it, I've cancelled our trip to WDC later this month. I don't respond to fear-mongering; it's just common sense. I'm in my 70s and diabetic, which means a compromised immune system, so spending hours/days on airplanes, in airports, hotels, restaurants and on public transportation just seems like asking for trouble unnecessarily.
  #247  
Old 03-02-2020, 05:54 PM
StGermain is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Toon Town
Posts: 10,991
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chefguy View Post
Well, much as I hate to do it, I've cancelled our trip to WDC later this month. I don't respond to fear-mongering; it's just common sense. I'm in my 70s and diabetic, which means a compromised immune system, so spending hours/days on airplanes, in airports, hotels, restaurants and on public transportation just seems like asking for trouble unnecessarily.
I didn't know that diabetes also comprised one's immune system. Interesting. My sisters are diabetic and always sick with something.

StG
  #248  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:05 PM
Sefton is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Stalag 17
Posts: 1,815
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatopescado View Post
M-m-m-my Corona!
Bravo!
  #249  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:10 PM
iamthewalrus(:3= is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Santa Barbara, CA
Posts: 12,397
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tatterdemalion View Post
I was at the Costco this weekend, and it was a mob scene. They were rationing the bottled water. I heard the cashier tell the woman ahead of me that she was only allowed to buy 3 cases at a time.
People are nuts.

Bottled water seems like the least important supply to stock up for in an upper respiratory pandemic. It's not like a flood or an earthquake or a hurricane where the tap water might not be safe to drink.
  #250  
Old 03-02-2020, 06:15 PM
TroutMan's Avatar
TroutMan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 5,234
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamthewalrus(:3= View Post
People are nuts.

Bottled water seems like the least important supply to stock up for in an upper respiratory pandemic. It's not like a flood or an earthquake or a hurricane where the tap water might not be safe to drink.
Shhhh... Don't tell them. Most people don't have adequate supplies in case of a natural disaster, so if this encourages them to better stock their emergency kit, all the better.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:19 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017