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Old 03-12-2020, 10:32 AM
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Won't corona virus be with us forever?


This is somwthing Iíve not seen addressed.

Now that the corona virus has spread, wonít it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza? Long-term, will containment plans be of any use? Will populations gradually develop immunity from exposure? Will it lose its virulence as time goes on?

I guess what Iím concerned with is that all the discussion seems to be on preventing itís spread. But once it has spread, and all indications are that it is, what then? Does it somehow become an endemic disease that isnít as serious as it is right now? Or is it a fundamental change to our way of life, for the foreseeable future?
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:37 AM
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No one knows yet: there have been types of infection which made a really brutal impact and then disappeared and others which continue on year after year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemics

Last edited by PastTense; 03-12-2020 at 10:40 AM.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:41 AM
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Now that the corona virus has spread, wonít it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza?
The corona virus has always been with us, this is just a particularly virulent strain.

We also don't know if this will be a seasonal disease, like the flu. It's too early to tell.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:47 AM
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Turns out, this whole time, the coronavirus was with us.... in our hearts.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:47 AM
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Since it's GD and not GQ I can throw in a WAG:

Not necessarily. Some viruses readily branch into many strains, while others seem more stable (the likelihood of mutation is basically the same, but the likelihood of making viable strains differs from virus to virus). If Covid-19 is quite stable then perhaps it can be eradicated eventually.
Unfortunately there's some data to suggest already two strains.

Also containment could have worked, but I would agree that that cruise ship has sailed.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:56 AM
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Also containment could have worked, but I would agree that that cruise ship has sailed.
We're sunk, then.
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Old 03-12-2020, 11:04 AM
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We're sunk, then.
Nah, we're just barely keeping our heads above water.
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Old 03-12-2020, 11:18 AM
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This is somwthing Iíve not seen addressed.

Now that the corona virus has spread, wonít it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza? Long-term, will containment plans be of any use? Will populations gradually develop immunity from exposure? Will it lose its virulence as time goes on?
Yes, it may well be with us permanently. You may have noticed that H1N1 continues to be a circulating flu strain. Preventive measures that are being taken now are about flattening the curve - spreading out and slowing the rate at which people sicken. This eases the burden on the healthcare system, and gives researchers time to develop a vaccine. Italy, for example, did not act quickly enough and their healthcare system is failing. So, long term, containment measures now are absolutely of use.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:09 PM
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Shoot - I meant thus to be in GQ, not GD. (I sometimes get the forums mixed up when I'm posting on my phone.). Will self-report and ask for move.
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Old 03-12-2020, 02:45 PM
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Since it's low impact for kids, it may just turn into a thing kids get and shrug off, maybe without noticing. We just have this brutal phase for the first wave of adults. The next wave will have had it in childhood
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:36 PM
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Or is it a fundamental change to our way of life, for the foreseeable future?
This is kind of what I've been wondering.

Sporting events, conferences, and concerts are being cancelled or postponed. Colleges and universities are telling students not to come back after spring break. People are being told not to travel.

How will we know when, or if, we can resume such activities and get back to normal?
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Old 03-12-2020, 03:57 PM
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This is kind of what I've been wondering.

Sporting events, conferences, and concerts are being cancelled or postponed. Colleges and universities are telling students not to come back after spring break. People are being told not to travel.

How will we know when, or if, we can resume such activities and get back to normal?
I am not sure, but I think in a few weeks the wave will have crested and things will settle down. The wave being the spike in initial infections, illnesses and deaths.
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Old 03-12-2020, 04:32 PM
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It may take a year or three, but they'll come up with a vaccine. After that, life will return to normal.

In the meantime, it depends on how successful our social distancing measures turn out to be in slowing down the transmission of the virus. Serious kudos to colleges and universities, and the major sports and the NCAA in shutting things down.

Like it or not, practically all of us will get exposed to this thing sooner or later; the only question is whether it will happen at a rate that our health care system can handle. But even under the best scenarios, I think we really only kinda creep back to normal, possibly this fall, possibly not until next year sometime.
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Old 03-12-2020, 05:42 PM
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1. Once most of the population has been infected, it will have a hard time spreading. People can spread the disease without symptoms, but I suspect that people who are immune to the disease will not spread it. I guess it's like SARS, which I believe still exists but isn't killing very many people.
2. There will be a vaccine eventually, and there will be a huge rush to get it to people who need it the most (eg the elderly and health care workers). Unfortunately immunocompromised people get no benefit from this.
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Old 03-12-2020, 05:48 PM
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In itself it's nasty, but it's not THAT nasty. It's not Ebola. So the point of trying to squash it right now is so that everyone doesn't get it at once. So long as the initial peak can be flattened out, most people will be fine. If there's a huge peak, that's really bad and you don't want to be in the middle of it. Long term effects are not really the worry (even if it turns out there's never a vaccine - after all, the vaccine for the ordinary flu is sporadically effective or ineffective, year by year)
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:34 PM
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There are several possibilities to the course long term.

First coronaviruses as a family have a high mutation rate. Many suspect the existing human coronavirues that are the cause of 15 to 20% of common colds originated as cross over events from animal hosts at some point, and they mutate regularly changing their spike proteins such that new variants evade past antibody reactions. But they are not high virulence and for the very good reason that being too virulent is selected against, while lesser virulence allows greater spread.

So one possibility - it becomes an endemic illness of mild to moderate virulence, possibly with seasonality like the flu and other human coronaviruses.

Possibility two - it spreads very broadly over 1 yr, infecting some large fraction of the world's population, whatever its virulence, leaving a high fraction of people immune to it in its wake, impeding its ability to spread too widely too fast in future years. As Kimera757 alludes to, and is the same sort of herd immunity that immunization programs aim to achieve. Problem is that herd immunity does not work great unless high fractions of the population are immune.


A few things that potentially inform speculations -

Animal origin coronaviruses crossing over to humans are highly unlikely something that just started occurring in the last two decades, yet we've had no identifiable coronavirus pandemics. Any that have occurred had at least been lost in the background statistical noise of interyear morbidity and mortality seasonal flu variation, and the only human coronaviruses around are relatively benign bugs.

WHY are kids so relatively unimpacted - either not getting it, or only getting such mild disease as to be undiagnosed, and apparently NOT very contagious? One speculation is that they have had enough recent and constant exposures to other human coronaviruses as to provide some level of protection (with adults having much less of that exposure and not as recently). IF SO, then it implies that a vaccine is reasonably possible and that those who have recovered should have pretty good protection for at some good while.

The concern Aspidistra is not only the size of an initial peak, but the timing of any possible second one. A peak occurring over summer when hospitals have some capacity would be less bad than a similarly sized one occurring concurrent with a moderate influenza season, for obvious reasons.
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Old 03-12-2020, 10:43 PM
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This is simply God's way of somewhat-gently eradicating the earth of a Trump presidency. Now don't fuck it up, America, or the next plague will be anal-boils. And after that the really messed up shit starts happening.
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Old 03-12-2020, 11:15 PM
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WHY are kids so relatively unimpacted - either not getting it, or only getting such mild disease as to be undiagnosed, and apparently NOT very contagious? One speculation is that they have had enough recent and constant exposures to other human coronaviruses as to provide some level of protection (with adults having much less of that exposure and not as recently).
I'm not sure I follow the logic of this one. Why would adults have less exposure?

The main theory as I've heard it, is the usual one -- differences in the immune system.

"The immune system" can often oversimplify what is a complex set of systems operating both in concert and in series. But one overall difference between infants and adults is that the former rely more on the innate immune system. It seems probable that for this virus, the innate immune system seems to be much more effective than the adaptive immune system.
Of course, we don't know this yet. There are other hypotheses and for sure we need to research this.
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Old 03-13-2020, 12:01 AM
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Adults don’t go to preschool sticking toys in their mouths and seeing if their friends’ boogers taste better than their own. Adults do not swim in the same sort of cesspool. Their exposures to human coronaviruses are recent and repetitive.

The average preschooler gets 6 to 8 colds a year and over a dozen is pretty common. They are the drivers of contagion in the community for influenza. Yet not with COVID-19.

I’ll ask for a cite that kids of all ages have more powerful innate systems or weaker adaptive ones than adults (not the case), but in any case it fails as an explanation as it does not fit the experience with the under two crowd having greater risk with influenza than older children and young adults.

The differential kid response to this virus is different than to influenza. Very different.
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Old 03-13-2020, 12:30 AM
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In itself it's nasty, but it's not THAT nasty.
Here are the top causes of death in the U.S.

Quote:
Heart disease: 647,457.
Cancer: 599,108.
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936.
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201.
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383.
Alzheimer's disease: 121,404.
Diabetes: 83,564.
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

So if half the population gets the disease and there is a mortality rate of 1% that is 1,600,000 deaths. So it is THAT NASTY.
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Old 03-13-2020, 02:10 AM
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The concern Aspidistra is not only the size of an initial peak, but the timing of any possible second one. A peak occurring over summer when hospitals have some capacity would be less bad than a similarly sized one occurring concurrent with a moderate influenza season, for obvious reasons.
At the moment I'll be pretty happy if we can even deal well with the first one!
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Old 03-13-2020, 02:12 AM
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As viruses spread over time they become less virulent. Even with HIV a decade later it was still deadly but the time it took from infection to death was increasing.

Viruses cannot reproduce without a host, so if they kill off their hosts, they too die or rather their young do. (if you can call it that).

We've had much worse plagues in the past and they burn themselves out or they decrease where people can live with them. For example Lassa Fever is very dangerous but in West Africa where it is endemic, people test positive for it without ever having symptoms.

Look at Ebola's near twin Marburgvirus. It caused a bunch of deaths then disappeared basically for a decade. Then it came back with a few cases here and there for the next two decades. Then in the late 90s outbreaks took the form of Ebola, which first came on the scene nearly a decade after Marburg.

So yes, it will likely be around but the deadliest types will kill their hosts and thus kill themselves off. Leaving the less deadly ones that will not kill their host but enable the virus to reproduce.
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Old 03-13-2020, 03:36 AM
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This is simply God's way of somewhat-gently eradicating the earth of a Trump presidency. Now don't fuck it up, America, or the next plague will be anal-boils.
And that's when we're really gonna need all that toilet paper people have been hoarding.
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Old 03-13-2020, 04:40 AM
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Here are the top causes of death in the U.S.



https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

So if half the population gets the disease and there is a mortality rate of 1% that is 1,600,000 deaths. So it is THAT NASTY.
This is the "long term effects" thread. You can't infection half the population every year.
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Old 03-13-2020, 08:06 AM
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This is somwthing Iíve not seen addressed.

Now that the corona virus has spread, wonít it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza? Long-term, will containment plans be of any use? Will populations gradually develop immunity from exposure? Will it lose its virulence as time goes on?
SARS was caused by a coronavirus, SARS-COV. It is, technically, always with us, but you haven't heard about it in awhile. It's just how these things work.

Who knows? It's highly unpredictable.
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Old 03-13-2020, 09:28 AM
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Adults don’t go to preschool sticking toys in their mouths and seeing if their friends’ boogers taste better than their own. Adults do not swim in the same sort of cesspool. Their exposures to human coronaviruses are recent and repetitive.

The average preschooler gets 6 to 8 colds a year and over a dozen is pretty common.
In some cases infants have greater exposure however it is commonly accepted a primary reason that infants have so many infections is because of their immature, developing immune system cite cite cite

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They are the drivers of contagion in the community for influenza. Yet not with COVID-19.
[...]
The differential kid response to this virus is different than to influenza. Very different.
Which all seems contrary to the hypothesis that the difference in infection incidence between adults and infants is solely down to behavioral differences, right?

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I’ll ask for a cite that kids of all ages have more powerful innate systems or weaker adaptive ones than adults (not the case), but in any case it fails as an explanation as it does not fit the experience with the under two crowd having greater risk with influenza than older children and young adults.
I didn't say anything was weaker or more powerful as such; I said infants rely more on their innate immune system because, for example, they lack T and B cell memory triggered by previous infections.

Last edited by Mijin; 03-13-2020 at 09:29 AM.
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Old 03-13-2020, 12:44 PM
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At the moment I'll be pretty happy if we can even deal well with the first one!
Hopefully, we are manufacturing ventilators as we speak.
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Old 03-13-2020, 02:50 PM
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Vaccine.
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Old 03-13-2020, 05:00 PM
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Hopefully, we are manufacturing ventilators as we speak.
Now that's something I haven't even heard discussed. Do we know where ventilators are normally manufactured? Is it ... China? How long does it take to manufacture a ventilator anyway?
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Old 03-13-2020, 05:33 PM
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In some cases infants have greater exposure however it is commonly accepted a primary reason that infants have so many infections is because of their immature, developing immune system cite cite cite



Which all seems contrary to the hypothesis that the difference in infection incidence between adults and infants is solely down to behavioral differences, right?



I didn't say anything was weaker or more powerful as such; I said infants rely more on their innate immune system because, for example, they lack T and B cell memory triggered by previous infections.
I'm really not getting what part you are missing here.

The issue is not the mystery of why infants are not getting as sick or serving as the drivers of contagion with COVID-19 while they do with influenza. The curious case of the dog that did not bark is the lack of those 19 years old and under as getting sick enough to diagnose and being the drivers of the infection through the community, as they do for influenza and many other communicable diseases.

Children, outside of infancy, have quite strong adaptive immune systems. It is why they have a strong response to vaccines like the influenza vaccine (in comparison to the weaker response seen in higher risk older adult populations) and have a low mortality rate from influenza. But they frequently get symptomatically ill with influenza and spew the virus around them in large numbers; they are the drivers of influenza contagion in communities. All the current evidence is that such, especially the latter, is NOT the case for COVID-19. SARS was also notably much less severe in children than in adults. There were however never enough cases to be able to determine if they had less infectivity.

So what are the differences between adults and kids (all ages of them) specific to the families coronaviridae and influenza?

One difference is that the typical child has had much greater fairly recent repetitive exposure to other human coronaviruses than adults have. Adults, especially older adults who are not around kids much, don't get exposed to those viruses nearly as often, nor as recently. That kid with the near perpetually runny nose has an HCoV a good fraction of the time. The one who just gets the several colds a year probably has an HCoV at least annually.

Which does not rule out the possibility of innate system dysfunction with aging contributing to larger morbidity and mortality with differences in how the innate system works in the contexts of COVID-19 and influenza infections. In both the innate system working correctly and in concert with the adaptive response protects from infection in the first place and its out of control response causes the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) with multi-organ failure that is the most common cause of death. Yes, even without differential exposures to similar viruses different patterns of function in different age groups may react differently to different viruses, causes greater protection at one age and greater vulnerability at another. But for this to be the explanation it has to be true for all of the variation in function as both systems variably develop from infancy to early adulthood, which seems improbable to me.

(By the way, do you realize that your very first cite is explicitly discussing how the innate takes years to fully mature to adult function?)
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Old 03-13-2020, 05:52 PM
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This is somwthing I’ve not seen addressed.

Now that the corona virus has spread, won’t it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza? Long-term, will containment plans be of any use?
the function of containment is to slow it down to reduce casualties until a vaccine is available.

The good news here is a worldwide attempt to deal with it. China turned over their genetic mapping of the virus to all countries. The US is using a supercomputer to calculate the best avenues of tests to expedite a vaccine. Common sense techniques are being used for testing such as drive-through tests. This keeps people away from hospitals and infecting people who are already vulnerable. Hospitals should only be used for people who have the virus ANDneed medical care.

Last edited by Magiver; 03-13-2020 at 05:52 PM.
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Old 03-13-2020, 08:44 PM
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My mom and dad cancelled thier florida trip and disneyworld is closing also ONLY UNTIL THE END OF MARCH!!

Why are all these places closing ONLY UNTIL END OF MARCH?? -- Is it gonna dissapear somehow??

I dunno.......
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Old 03-13-2020, 09:32 PM
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Why are all these places closing ONLY UNTIL END OF MARCH?? -- Is it gonna dissapear somehow??
They don't know how long things are going to be like this, so they're taking steps to minimize the damage. They are starting with a smaller window, and can extend it later. If they close for 1-2 months, and conditions allow them to open earlier then they've lost business to all those folks who had to cancel their arrangements.

Granted, people are going to cancel anyway. And extending the closing repeatedly is just going piss people off. They want certainty, not to be put on hold for a long time. In reality there's no perfect answer.
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Old 03-13-2020, 11:24 PM
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Ahhhhhhh ok that makes sense,thank you
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Old 03-13-2020, 11:24 PM
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I'm really not getting what part you are missing here.
I'm also staggered by your responses. Nothing I've said is controversial in any way.

The immune system develops (and later seneces) throughout life. And by "develop" we don't just mean grow and then die, we mean the whole catalog of complex changes occurring as described in my previous cites.

The effect this normally has with regards to contagion is that they have a U-shaped incidence curve. Because in the very young the immune system is still immature and developing, and in the very old the immune response becomes smaller in numbers and less efficient.
When the incidence graph differs from this e.g. children largely unaffected by a virus, or e.g. most fatalities happening to people in their 20s, we can look at the more specific developmental changes to the immune system to why that is the case.

Quote:
The issue is not the mystery of why infants are not getting as sick or serving as the drivers of contagion with COVID-19 while they do with influenza. The curious case of the dog that did not bark is the lack of those 19 years old and under as getting sick enough to diagnose and being the drivers of the infection through the community, as they do for influenza and many other communicable diseases.
Very low numbers, yes. But what is your hypothesis at this point: that 19-year olds are putting their friends' legos in their mouth?

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Children, outside of infancy, have quite strong adaptive immune systems.
Not as strong as an adult's. Do you dispute that?

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One difference is that the typical child has had much greater fairly recent repetitive exposure to other human coronaviruses than adults have. Adults, especially older adults who are not around kids much, don't get exposed to those viruses nearly as often, nor as recently.
Well, as often, because adults were children once.
They might plausibly not had as much recent exposure but I fail to see the relevance of that.

Quote:
(By the way, do you realize that your very first cite is explicitly discussing how the innate takes years to fully mature to adult function?)
Sure, but it's still a good cite to use because for example, it begins with "It is well established that adaptive immune responses are deficient in early life, contributing to increased mortality and morbidity". In other words, it begins from the position that I am describing, but is trying to say that as well as that there is a less established, less obvious developmental path for the innate immune system too.

I have not, and would not claim that a child's innate immune system is already optimal. I have simply said that they rely on it more than the adaptive immune system.
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Old 03-14-2020, 03:47 AM
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Let's stick to these two items to start -
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Very low numbers, yes. But what is your hypothesis at this point: that 19-year olds are putting their friends' legos in their mouth?



Not as strong as an adult's. Do you dispute that?
The 19 year olds (call it late teens), relatively yes. They are much higher "contact", in many ways than most older adults, even just a decade older, including putting their friends' ... uh ... "legos" in their mouth. Just more touch of all sorts and close contact with a greater number of each other in general. And much closer to the age of extremely frequent common colds than they are decades later.

In terms of your belief that children's adaptive responses are not as strong as an adults, yes, I 100% dispute that. The opposite is true. I'll illustrate such in one very simple way, the HPV vaccine. We start to give this around age ten and as long as we start the series before kids turn 15 we can go with a two dose schedule. Start at 15 or older and we need to use a three dose schedule. Because even that young the adaptive response is LESS strong as you get older, studies have shown the two doses at 9 to 14 give as strong or stronger protection than three doses later on. It's true with other vaccines as well - nonresponse rates to Hepatitis B vaccination increases as one ages; infants have great response with lasting protection; primary nonresponse rates start to climb even by age 30.

In short, kids have more powerful and consistent adaptive immune responses than do most adults, even by age 30.

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... They might plausibly not had as much recent exposure but I fail to see the relevance of that. ...
I'm guessing that you've then not been good about keeping up with your adult tetanus vaccine every ten years, or bother with getting your flu shot annually even if the components have not changed ... because time elapsed since last having the response boosted is of no relevance that you see.

The "well established that adaptive immune responses are deficient in early life" is before 24 months of age and specifically to glycoproteins and polysaccharides not protein antigens. By two they's good.


But really this is getting down a rabbit hole tangent off the OP. The issue of potential relevance to speculating what happens is the why kids seem so much less significant COVID-19 and spread it so much less relative to influenza viruses and even many other common viruses. Whatever is the cause for COVID-19 being specifically different in kids than influenza and many other viruses may inform what happens over the next season or so.
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Old 03-14-2020, 08:00 AM
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But what is your hypothesis at this point: that 19-year olds are putting their friends' legos in their mouth?
I remember playing spin-the-bottle in high school. But not since.
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Old 03-15-2020, 03:43 AM
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My grandkids put their leggos in MY mouth!
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Old 03-15-2020, 09:58 AM
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He may be loathe to bring it up but you should probably know, Mijin, you're arguing childhood immunity development with a pediatrician.
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Old 03-15-2020, 11:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Triskadecamus View Post
My grandkids put their leggos in MY mouth!
Exactly right and is why for influenza, and many other communicable diseases, kids are the drivers of contagion, getting influenza very often themselves and spreading it widely.

The apparent fact that this is not the case for COVID-19 is a huge significance, minimally for epidemiological modeling and rational public health decision making.

IF kids function epidemiologically more as non-susceptibles do (not spreading it much when exposed) rather than the huge amplifiers for spread, like they do for influenza, then what happens in regions of different demographics is very different than with influenza. Influenza spreads most where the population of children is fairly high; this (if such is actually true) would spread slowest in those populations, and most in populations with an older average age (and of course cause the most harm per case there as well). The plus side is that implementing meaningful social distancing measures (and what is meaningful remains to be determined but might not require draconian measures) is much more achievable in an adult population.
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Old 03-15-2020, 12:00 PM
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Unfortunately there's some data to suggest already two strains.
Oh, man. I thought that might be the case, just from knowing that this was the case for so long with smallpox (variola major & variola minor), and no one realized for the longest time. But the death rate for the is very different-- IIRC, it was (back when the disease could easily be caught, which hasn't been the case for a long time) close to 90% for variola major, but only about 10% for variola minor; however, immunity to one conferred immunity to the other. That's why it was sort of mysterious for so long why a strapping, healthy young person would dies from small pox, while a child or elderly person would survive; people didn't realize there was a deadly strain and a mild strain.

I've been afraid to say that I thought so, though, because IANAD, and it sounded like borderline quack theory.

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WHY are kids so relatively unimpacted - either not getting it, or only getting such mild disease as to be undiagnosed, and apparently NOT very contagious? One speculation is that they have had enough recent and constant exposures to other human coronaviruses as to provide some level of protection (with adults having much less of that exposure and not as recently).
That's good news for me, because I work in a preschool. I very frequently get a runny nose, which give me a little bit of a cough from post-nasal drip, but it goes away in a day. Really, it it a 24-hr. thing. I used to think they were allergy attacks, but my doctor said they were probably "common cold" viruses I got from the kids. Take a decongestant and a cough pill, if it helped; wash may hands a lot, and try not to touch my face. She said if I have a fever, I should stay home, but if not, I'm OK to go in as long as I don't feel run down.

I feel fine when this happens; just annoyed that I have to blow my nose so much.

I had the habit of coming home from work, immediately taking off my glasses, and rubbing my eyes and nose bridge. I broke myself of that habit, and now I get a lot fewer of the "24-hr" colds.

So maybe I'll get lucky, and have better-than-usual resistance to COVID-19.
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Old 03-15-2020, 02:33 PM
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Now that's something I haven't even heard discussed. Do we know where ventilators are normally manufactured? Is it ... China? How long does it take to manufacture a ventilator anyway?
Its just an air pump. Not a particularly complicated piece of machinery. Modern sophisticated ones with bells and whistles will take longer to produce. However its possible to make simple ones which can be, mass-produced, battery operated and "good enough".

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Old 03-15-2020, 04:44 PM
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Its just an air pump. Not a particularly complicated piece of machinery. Modern sophisticated ones with bells and whistles will take longer to produce. However its possible to make simple ones which can be, mass-produced, battery operated and "good enough".

They were talking about this on the news. Apparently there are different levels of ventilators so there are many more than the 5,000 discussed. In addition to that we would have a substantial number of BPAP machines that could be used for those who need a lesser amount of assistance breathing. That would be a simpler mask style. A BPAP is a CPAP that releaves pressure when you exhale so it's not constantly trying to blow you up like a balloon.
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Old 03-16-2020, 02:25 PM
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[QUOTE=Northern Piper;22185494]This is somwthing Iíve not seen addressed.

Now that the corona virus has spread, wonít it always be part of the diseases that float around, just like influenza? Long-term, will containment plans be of any use? Will populations gradually develop immunity from exposure? Will it lose its virulence as time goes on?

I guess what Iím concerned with is that all the discussion seems to be on preventing itís spread. But once it has spread, and all indications are that it is, what then? Does it somehow become an endemic disease that isnít as serious as it is right now? Or is it a fundamental change to our way of life, for the foreseeable future?[/QUOT

Heck, 1918's Spanish Flu is still with us now, albeit in mutated form. We can probably expect the same from this new H1N1 virus. It will peak and persist until a vaccine is widely distributed. It will, most likely, mutate and fade into the woodwork as more of the population becomes immune.
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Old 03-16-2020, 09:56 PM
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In terms of your belief that children's adaptive responses are not as strong as an adults, yes, I 100% dispute that.
That's quite a bullet to bite, since it's already been refuted by previous cites.

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Originally Posted by Evolution of the immune system in humans from infancy to old age
As the individual gets older, he or she develops an expanding repertoire comprising memory T and B cells triggered by previous infections and vaccinations, but also a naive-memory repertoire shaped by exposure to the microbiome, food antigens and inhaled antigens.
And this is from the section From childhood to adulthood, *not* talking about the first 24 months.

I'm sure at this point you'll try to suggest that an infant's immune system cells themselves are as numerous and active as they'll ever be. Of course they are.
But we were talking in the context of my statement "Infants rely more on their innate immune system", and in this context the lack of antibodies from previous infections is exactly what we're talking about.

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But really this is getting down a rabbit hole tangent off the OP. The issue of potential relevance to speculating what happens is the why kids seem so much less significant COVID-19 and spread it so much less relative to influenza viruses and even many other common viruses. Whatever is the cause for COVID-19 being specifically different in kids than influenza and many other viruses may inform what happens over the next season or so.
Right it's a ridiculous field to fight on.

You are rejecting that differences in the immune system can have a significant impact in the different incidences of disease through a person's life, while at the same time, conceding that your hypothesis seems to be making the wrong prediction about this virus that's the topic of this thread.
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Old 03-19-2020, 02:03 AM
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They were talking about this on the news. Apparently there are different levels of ventilators so there are many more than the 5,000 discussed. In addition to that we would have a substantial number of BPAP machines that could be used for those who need a lesser amount of assistance breathing. That would be a simpler mask style. A BPAP is a CPAP that releaves pressure when you exhale so it's not constantly trying to blow you up like a balloon.
I've been wondering about this. How different are CPAPs from ventilators? Because we've got a shipload of those in every suburb. Would a CPAP not serve the same purpose of maintaining gas interchange in a COVID-19 patient? I suppose we'd have to set it to a higher pressure, but they all have the option to be set to different strengths, right?

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Originally Posted by TimfromNapa View Post
. . .
Heck, 1918's Spanish Flu is still with us now, albeit in mutated form. We can probably expect the same from this new H1N1 virus. It will peak and persist until a vaccine is widely distributed. It will, most likely, mutate and fade into the woodwork as more of the population becomes immune.
This new virus is not an H1N1. It's not even influenza. It's a Coronavirus.

Last edited by TruCelt; 03-19-2020 at 02:04 AM.
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Old 03-19-2020, 02:09 AM
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The actual name of the virus is SARS-COV-2. The disease it causes is COVID-19. But because the name "SARS" promotes panic, the WHO decided to use the disease name to refer to it.

I can't help wondering if we might have responded more appropriately if they hadn't done that. Maybe this was a moment to just go ahead and scare the public.
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Old 03-19-2020, 02:50 PM
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My understanding of the development of immunity echoes that of DSeid.

However, in general there is concern people don’t develop lasting immunity to coronavirus infections. You get lots of colds. That doesn’t mean your body doesn’t fight off the infection, make antibodies or that a vaccine isn’t worthwhile. People develop immunity from pertussis and tetanus vaccines that also requires booster shots. Does this apply to both children, teens and adults? Yes, for pertussis and tetanus. There are differences.

Still, there were fears of a pandemic during SARS and MERS and after the initial scares I am unaware of people developing severe cases now. Part of the argument for social distancing is you want the less dangerous strains (causing cold symptoms rather than ARDS) to become contagious if any strain has to become widespread. The virus kind of has the same goal - you can’t replicate as widely if you kill your hosts.

So it remains to be seen if there are waves of CoVid19 in the future or if the surviving strains are mild or rare enough it doesn’t make much difference. Or how long a vaccine would last if it can be made. We just don’t know enough to be definitive so better to be safe while minimizing other problems. I’m optimistic things will gradually improve. And I know my way around a respirator.
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Last edited by Dr_Paprika; 03-19-2020 at 02:50 PM.
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Old 03-19-2020, 04:07 PM
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This is simply God's way of somewhat-gently eradicating the earth of a Trump presidency. Now don't fuck it up, America, or the next plague will be anal-boils. And after that the really messed up shit starts happening.
Moderator Note

You appear not to have read the rules or forum description for this forum. Keep jabs like this out of factual threads. No warning issued since this is a new forum, but generally you should post as if you were in GQ.

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Old 03-19-2020, 05:28 PM
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WHY are kids so relatively unimpacted - either not getting it, or only getting such mild disease as to be undiagnosed, and apparently NOT very contagious? One speculation is that they have had enough recent and constant exposures to other human coronaviruses as to provide some level of protection (with adults having much less of that exposure and not as recently).
So George Carlin was right.
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