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Old 04-24-2019, 11:44 AM
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Can Avengers: Endgame get to $300 million domestic this weekend


It's never been done before. According to BoxOfficeMojo it's opening on 4400 locations this weekend. That would be $68,181.82 per location.

But there's locations and there's locations. So places have it playing 100 times over the weekend. My own local multiplex - one of several in the area - is showing it 30 times per day between standard, 3D and RPX.

I think Disney's thinking they can break the record. Right now the highest domestic opening weekends are:

Avengers: Infinity War: $257MM
Star Wars: TFA: $247MM
Star Wars: TLJ: $220MM
Jurassic World: $208MM
The Avengers: $207MM

Aside: Good Lord. Other than Jurassic World you have to drill down to #12 to find a non-Disney release.

So can it get there? And can it get to the #1 worldwide release? Rumors are out there of a more than $100 million earn just in China alone this weekend. To take the worldwide mark it would have to earn $641 million. That would, of course, be passing Infinity War.

So what do you think, people? Can it do it?
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Old 04-24-2019, 12:30 PM
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I think it'll be the number one opening weekend ever both domestic and world wide. I don't think it'll break $300MM.

There might be 20% growth from infinity wars but that seems hard to imagine since I doubt they've created that many new fans at this point. The only way that happens is if it is so good that they get 20% more rewatchers. I'm hearing good things so far but that seems like a stretch.
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Old 04-24-2019, 12:35 PM
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It's also 20 minutes longer than Infinity War, leaving less time for showings.
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Old 04-24-2019, 12:52 PM
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Easily. At this point I would consider 500m an even shot. This is being shown on WAY more screens than even IW was. Some theaters have it on every single screen. And it's still hard to find tickets.
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Old 04-24-2019, 01:09 PM
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Easily. At this point I would consider 500m an even shot.
In just the US!? Ha, no. No it will not get anyway even close to that.
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Old 04-24-2019, 02:01 PM
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Just checking the weekend schedule at the local dodecaplex: over 50 screenings between Friday and Sunday. Anybody who wants to see a movie this weekend that is NOT "Endgame" is pretty much screwed.
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Old 04-24-2019, 02:18 PM
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$270M would be impressive, but $300M looks to be out of reach.
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Old 04-24-2019, 02:23 PM
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I doubt they've created that many new fans at this point. The only way that happens is if it is so good that they get 20% more rewatchers.
Or to have so much hype that even people who normally wait for the BluRay (like me) will finally get off their asses and go to the theater. I personally won't, but I imagine a non-trivial number could materialize.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 04-24-2019 at 02:23 PM.
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Old 04-25-2019, 09:43 AM
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It's also 20 minutes longer than Infinity War, leaving less time for showings.
Around here, this is countered by nearly-unprecedented early-morning showings. Some as early as 7:45 a.m.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:12 AM
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Anybody who wants to see a movie this weekend that is NOT "Endgame" is pretty much screwed.
My local 10-screen multiplex has only two other movies showing tonight. One showing of Captain Marvel and one of Shazam.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:14 AM
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Pre-sales nearly sold out all the local theaters Thursday through Sunday. I went in 2 days after pre-sales started, and had to check nearly a dozen theaters to find two seats (a) together and (b) not in the first two rows. That included early morning and mid-afternoon shows. Finally found tickets, so now I just need to plan out when to take a bathroom break. I hear anything in the last hour is out.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:25 AM
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Pre-sales nearly sold out all the local theaters Thursday through Sunday. I went in 2 days after pre-sales started, and had to check nearly a dozen theaters to find two seats (a) together and (b) not in the first two rows. That included early morning and mid-afternoon shows. Finally found tickets, so now I just need to plan out when to take a bathroom break. I hear anything in the last hour is out.
I'm going to a non-reserved seating theater for the firs time in a long while because I couldn't find anything not right up front.
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:56 AM
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Pre-sales nearly sold out all the local theaters Thursday through Sunday. I went in 2 days after pre-sales started, and had to check nearly a dozen theaters to find two seats (a) together and (b) not in the first two rows. That included early morning and mid-afternoon shows. Finally found tickets, so now I just need to plan out when to take a bathroom break. I hear anything in the last hour is out.
Actually I saw non-spoilery articles with suggestions for when to take bathroom breaks. (And without spoiling it, can someone tell me if I need to sit through the entire credits to catch all of the added scenes?)
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Old 04-25-2019, 01:39 PM
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I intend to watch it but I'm not watching it opening weekend because I know how busy it will be.

If you assume $10 per ticket that's 30 million tickets. That may not be doable in a country of 330 million. Tickets are probably higher though.

On opening weekends for blockbuster films I wonder how many ticket sales are from superfans watching the movie 5+ times. Do 5% of viewers make up 50% of ticket sales, that kind of thing.
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Old 04-25-2019, 02:31 PM
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Here are the showtimes at my 20-screen theater on a Thursday.

Avengers: Endgame

Standard:

6:10pm
6:20pm
6:30pm
6:45pm
6:50pm
7:00pm
7:10pm
7:15pm
7:20pm
7:50pm
8:15pm
8:40pm
9:00pm
9:20pm
10:00pm
10:10pm
10:20pm
10:40pm
10:45pm
10:50pm
11:00pm
11:05pm
11:10pm
11:15pm
11:30pm

3D <---no joke, I forgot they still did this
6:15pm
6:40pm
7:25pm
10:05pm
10:30pm
  #16  
Old 04-25-2019, 02:43 PM
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Actually I saw non-spoilery articles with suggestions for when to take bathroom breaks. (And without spoiling it, can someone tell me if I need to sit through the entire credits to catch all of the added scenes?)
What article was that? I am interested in this
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Old 04-25-2019, 02:45 PM
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Actually I saw non-spoilery articles with suggestions for when to take bathroom breaks. (And without spoiling it, can someone tell me if I need to sit through the entire credits to catch all of the added scenes?)
SPOILER:
NOPE. Get to your car early.
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Old 04-25-2019, 02:53 PM
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Quote:
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Actually I saw non-spoilery articles with suggestions for when to take bathroom breaks. (And without spoiling it, can someone tell me if I need to sit through the entire credits to catch all of the added scenes?)
What article was that? I am interested in this
Here is one.
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Old 04-25-2019, 03:00 PM
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Three hours. Massive lines. Massive crowds.

I'm noping right out of that.
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Old 04-25-2019, 03:29 PM
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Awesome...thanks.
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  #21  
Old 04-25-2019, 04:48 PM
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Three hours. Massive lines. Massive crowds.

I'm noping right out of that.
Og bless assigned-seat theaters and online ticket purchases. No lines. No real crowds except full theaters.
  #22  
Old 04-25-2019, 04:51 PM
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My right knee gets stiff if I keep it bent too long, so I regret not having bought the seat to the right of the one I did buy, just to keep it open and so I could extend my leg into that area.
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Old 04-26-2019, 01:26 AM
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Og bless assigned-seat theaters and online ticket purchases. No lines. No real crowds except full theaters.
Make sure to leave enough time for when you get there though. Yes it’s all assigned seating but there were still long lines tonight to get in and have your phone scanned/ticket taken.

I left the theater at 1:45am and it was packed with people waiting to get in.

Last edited by Eyebrows 0f Doom; 04-26-2019 at 01:28 AM.
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Old 04-26-2019, 01:53 AM
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If the parking lot where I was is any indication, it could.
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:21 AM
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My gut instincts say "No way." In the range of $250-270M.

(Looks at RT and presales numbers.)

Well, okay then. So much for my gut instincts.

Remember when The Dark Knights' opening of $158.4M was considered amazing?

~90% of ticket sales this weekend will be for this movie. Little Woods and Carmine Street Guitars are also opening this weekend have equally high RT scores. But they will be completely ignored. The latter sounds quite interesting.
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Old 04-26-2019, 07:57 AM
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No lines. No real crowds except full theaters.
Popcorn is an issue. Concessions will be packed. Thinking about it now, I might have to pull out my flask for my showing on Sunday.
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Old 04-26-2019, 09:11 AM
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Make sure to leave enough time for when you get there though. Yes it’s all assigned seating but there were still long lines tonight to get in and have your phone scanned/ticket taken.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ike Witt View Post
Popcorn is an issue. Concessions will be packed. Thinking about it now, I might have to pull out my flask for my showing on Sunday.
These are very good suggestions. Points taken.


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Last edited by bordelond; 04-26-2019 at 09:12 AM. Reason: added quote
  #28  
Old 04-26-2019, 02:16 PM
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Here are the showtimes at my 20-screen theater on a Thursday.

Avengers: Endgame

Standard:

6:10pm
6:20pm
6:30pm
6:45pm
6:50pm
7:00pm
7:10pm
7:15pm
7:20pm
7:50pm
8:15pm
8:40pm
9:00pm
9:20pm
10:00pm
10:10pm
10:20pm
10:40pm
10:45pm
10:50pm
11:00pm
11:05pm
11:10pm
11:15pm
11:30pm

3D <---no joke, I forgot they still did this
6:15pm
6:40pm
7:25pm
10:05pm
10:30pm

I used to run a 12plex. The thought of this makes me want to fold up into a ball below my desk and whimper.

To hell with trying to keep up with the making of popcorn, we would need to bring in someone just to change the soda syrup...
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:24 PM
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My 11AM showing - in the large RPX theater - was packed. Not a seat left.
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:29 PM
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yeah i wonder if that place has more than one concession stand ........ my local 22ples has 2 concession stands and a pizza kitchen/coffee shop with bakery and ice cream parlor ......
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:33 PM
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I looked online, at several randomly selected showtimes on Saturday...can't get two seats together for love or money. I'll probably try to see it next weekend...or later. I thought Black Panther was crazy....but it was nothing like this....
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:42 PM
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Yeah, boxofficemojo is reporting that Disney is cautiously optimistic about getting to $300MM. It did $140MM on day one. Woof.

Another data point: One of my local theaters added extra showings last night and early this morning and announced it on social media and those sold out.
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Old 04-26-2019, 02:52 PM
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heh i remeber seeing val kilmers batman movie around xmas was nuts ......I sat on the floor to watch it ...
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Old 04-26-2019, 03:00 PM
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we dont have any sell outs yet but not many here buy online either so i bet after 4 theres gonna be huge lines ..... the 12 40 showing is about half gone ..... so thats probably the adults seeing it before schools out
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Old 04-26-2019, 06:52 PM
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I guess I and other sites may need to eat crow.

Indeed, they are starting to say it may make the $300M mark this weekend.

Amazing. The Phantom Menace had an opening weekend of $64M* twenty years ago. What an increase.

*About $95M with inflation.

Last edited by Mahaloth; 04-26-2019 at 06:55 PM.
  #36  
Old 04-26-2019, 07:04 PM
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Supposedly it's very possible the film could get a billion dollars in worldwide gross by the end of the weekend. Which is just crazy. Now I'm curious to see if the box office drops off quickly or it maintains the crazy numbers, because in the latter case, it could break the record set by Avatar.
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Old 04-26-2019, 09:05 PM
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And that's really the goal, right? But 2.7B dollars is a lot of tickets sold.
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Old 04-27-2019, 09:48 AM
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They made 158 million on Friday. So yeah maybe.
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Old 04-27-2019, 10:29 AM
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God, that BOM story is openly discussing the possibility of a $340MM domestic weekend and $800-900MM globally. They say it might hit a billion dollars in five days.
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Old 04-27-2019, 01:31 PM
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God, that BOM story is openly discussing the possibility of a $340MM domestic weekend and $800-900MM globally. They say it might hit a billion dollars in five days.
It's only been out a day or two and is already at 650 million globally.
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Old 04-28-2019, 11:25 AM
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It got $350,000,000 according to estimates coming in.

Wrong!
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Old 04-28-2019, 11:28 AM
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And $1.2 billion worldwide. Absolutely astonishing. But my guess is that it slows quite a bit after that.
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Old 04-28-2019, 11:36 AM
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And $1.2 billion worldwide. Absolutely astonishing. But my guess is that it slows quite a bit after that.
Almost doubling the record from Infinity War.

Yes, it will obviously drop way down. Does this at least give it a chance to pass Avatar? I would really prefer this to Avatar in terms of "top movie of all time".

This movie will leave a cultural footprint, while Avatar is barely mentioned. This movie was actually really excellent, while Avatar is only a pretty good(but oddly forgettable) movie.

Episode IX would have at one time had a shot to beat this, but I think it is clear to me now that Episode IX will definitely not reach this level of viewership. I think The Last Jedi kind of sucked some life out of the series.
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Old 04-28-2019, 12:12 PM
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And $1.2 billion worldwide. Absolutely astonishing.
From the link, that means itís made more than CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR did over the course of its entire biggest-movie-of-the-year $1.15B+ theatrical run.
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Old 04-28-2019, 12:52 PM
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And I remember Civil War opening was considered cray cray.
And people thought The Force Awakens was amazing in its opening.
Every damn screen in town was booked, well in advance. I ended up watching it at my country club theatre/ auditorium. They installed a 3D screen several years ago,. A club with an average member age of 60. (I am 34).
1000 seat auditorium. Barely got two seats for show number 3. A week in advance. They were doing back to back screenings. From lunch time to 1 am.
I repeat, a country club theatre screen was booked solid.
This is unprecedented.
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Old 04-28-2019, 02:54 PM
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And $1.2 billion worldwide. Absolutely astonishing. But my guess is that it slows quite a bit after that.
Even if it drops the average amount for Marvel movies, that's a shitload of money.
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Old 04-28-2019, 03:40 PM
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And $1.2 billion worldwide. Absolutely astonishing. But my guess is that it slows quite a bit after that.
Yeah but now all the people who aren't superfans will watch it. Either as second or third week screenings, or in DVD at redbox, or when it is streaming on Netflix or Amazon.

It could make 2 billion when all is said and done.
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Old 04-28-2019, 03:42 PM
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Perhaps but those DVD or streaming rentals don't count as part of the box office numbers. (And I really doubt it will ever stream on Netflix or Amazon anyhow, as Disney will want to keep it on its own services.)
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Old 04-28-2019, 03:57 PM
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Yeah, itíll never stream on Netflix or Amazon.

However, it looks like the Average Marvel Movie Multiplier is about 2.80 times opening weekend.

If that holds up itíll end at approximately $3.36B. Thatís a heavy lift. But if it does what Infinity War does - a 2.6 multiplier - it would land at 3.12B.

On the gripping hand to beat Avatarís $2.7B it needs to maintain a multiplier of 2.25. That seems very achievable. The Marvel movie with the lowest multiplier was Civil War at 2.26.

I really want it to beat Avatar. I really do.
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Old 04-28-2019, 04:04 PM
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Yeah, itíll never stream on Netflix or Amazon.

However, it looks like the Average Marvel Movie Multiplier is about 2.80 times opening weekend.

If that holds up itíll end at approximately $3.36B. Thatís a heavy lift. But if it does what Infinity War does - a 2.6 multiplier - it would land at 3.12B.

On the gripping hand to beat Avatarís $2.7B it needs to maintain a multiplier of 2.25. That seems very achievable. The Marvel movie with the lowest multiplier was Civil War at 2.26.

I really want it to beat Avatar. I really do.
Should we adjust for inflation?
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