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  #51  
Old 04-28-2019, 04:06 PM
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Inflation adjusted, the top movie at the box office is Gone With The Wind. I'm OK with that; it was a huge movie based on a huge bestseller and was about a huge event in American history. I'm not OK that Avatar, basically a forgettable fantasy film, is the non-inflation adjusted winner.

Last edited by Dewey Finn; 04-28-2019 at 04:08 PM.
  #52  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:03 PM
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Yeah, it’ll never stream on Netflix or Amazon.

However, it looks like the Average Marvel Movie Multiplier is about 2.80 times opening weekend.

If that holds up it’ll end at approximately $3.36B. That’s a heavy lift. But if it does what Infinity War does - a 2.6 multiplier - it would land at 3.12B.

On the gripping hand to beat Avatar’s $2.7B it needs to maintain a multiplier of 2.25. That seems very achievable. The Marvel movie with the lowest multiplier was Civil War at 2.26.

I really want it to beat Avatar. I really do.
Avengers infinity war is on Netflix. Many of the marvel movies have been on Netflix.
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  #53  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:09 PM
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Now that Disney has announced its own streaming service to start in November, I don't expect that they will let any new movies stream on Netflix and will not renew any existing streaming contracts.
  #54  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:28 PM
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Now that Disney has announced its own streaming service to start in November, I don't expect that they will let any new movies stream on Netflix and will not renew any existing streaming contracts.
Yes, this movie is definitely after the Netflix deal. Disney+ will get this whenever they decide to throw it up on streaming.

DVD/Blu-ray is August, I think.
  #55  
Old 04-28-2019, 05:35 PM
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Avengers infinity war is on Netflix. Many of the marvel movies have been on Netflix.
That's because they Disney streaming channel doesn't exist yet.
  #56  
Old 04-28-2019, 06:40 PM
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And Disney has already announced that all their IP will disappear from other streaming services as their contracts expire.

Captain Marvel is the first movie theyve announced will only appear on their own streaming service.
  #57  
Old 04-28-2019, 06:40 PM
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Wow, $350MM. I was certainly wrong and I'm regretting not going to see the movie this weekend just to be part of the phenomenon. I'm planning on waiting until June to see it so it might break 2B about the time i see it.
  #58  
Old 04-28-2019, 07:06 PM
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There's still one more day to go right?
  #59  
Old 04-28-2019, 07:13 PM
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My local 10-screen multiplex has only two other movies showing tonight. One showing of Captain Marvel and one of Shazam.
So you have a choice of:
* Captain Marvel;
* Shazam, who back in the Golden Age of Comics was named Captain Marvel; and
* Avengers: Endgame, in which Captain Marvel appears

There's not a single movie showing at your multiplex that doesn't have some kind of Captain Marvel in it!
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  #60  
Old 04-28-2019, 07:19 PM
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There's still one more day to go right?
They estimate Sunday and are predicting $350M.

The final result once Sunday's totals are finalized could be a bit more or less. I am hearing perhaps slightly more, but we won't know until Monday or Tuesday.
  #61  
Old 04-28-2019, 08:09 PM
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There's still one more day to go right?
Yeah, but bear in mind that the bulk of tickets for opening weekend sell in advance online. And a crap-load of the tickets for opening night sold about two weeks ago. They likely got most of the Sunday revenue last night from people buying online.
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  #62  
Old 04-28-2019, 09:07 PM
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Inflation adjusted, the top movie at the box office is Gone With The Wind. I'm OK with that; it was a huge movie based on a huge bestseller and was about a huge event in American history. I'm not OK that Avatar, basically a forgettable fantasy film, is the non-inflation adjusted winner.
Yeah, but that's a tough one to figure. Mostly because the number includes all the releases it's had over the decades prior to the release of home video. It's a complicated calculation.

Over the years or home video and streaming, I used an inflation calculator on Avatar and come out with the $2.7 converts to:

$3.248B in inflation adjusted dollars.

So it's on pace. It may be a close thing.

In unadjusted dollars, though, I feel pretty good about passing Avatar. I've got tickets to see it again next weekend.
  #63  
Old 04-29-2019, 08:38 AM
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I keep thinking how since SW:TFA came out in 2015, the top release has been Black Panther. Now, 4 and half years later, something has come out that will beat not just the latter but the former as well.

Almost all the holdovers dropped quite more than usual. Except for Captain Marvel which dropped just 11% due to fan crossover.

Way down the list is the Hellboy reboot at 14. Someone thought keeping that in 927 theaters was a good idea. It got a per theater average of $383 this weekend, its 3rd. It dropped 91% from last weekend. Not exactly in the same money making category.
  #64  
Old 04-29-2019, 08:43 AM
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I don't recall having any difficulty getting tickets to Avatar, TFA, Black Panther, or any other movie in a long time. In the DC area, I had to get tickets for Endgame 2 days in advance for a 1 am showing that eventually sold out. Obviously, that's not quite indicative of the whole country or this would easily beat all records.
  #65  
Old 04-29-2019, 09:08 AM
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I don't recall having any difficulty getting tickets to Avatar, TFA, Black Panther, or any other movie in a long time. In the DC area, I had to get tickets for Endgame 2 days in advance for a 1 am showing that eventually sold out. Obviously, that's not quite indicative of the whole country or this would easily beat all records.
I experienced the same. I was simply unable to go see Endgame at my local theater; all of the showings were sold out within thirty minutes of the tickets being available for online sales.
  #66  
Old 04-29-2019, 03:56 PM
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Box Office Mojo now has weekend "actuals": $357,115,007.

Holy hopping Heathcliff. That's a lot of popcorn.

That's just barely under $100M more than the old record.

It could drop 70% next weekend and still make over $100M.
  #67  
Old 04-29-2019, 10:12 PM
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Endgame opened Wednesday in Manila - the Philippines, actually - with some midnight showings. Multiplexes have filled their screens with it, some having been running it 24 hours. Before the actual weekend had even arrived, Endgame had already broken local box office records.

I'll digress a bit to give you an idea of the sheer density of malls and cinemas here. Within a twenty minute walk of my house there is a relatively small mall with four screens. Within spitting distance, there are three larger malls, including the second largest in the Philippines, ninth largest in the world. Down the road in the opposite direction there's another mall complex. Go a bit further and there's a bigger - well you get the idea. Everyone is showing Endgame.

When I finally took my parents to see it on Monday first showing we were lucky to actually get seats at our desired viewing time. All four screens were sold out. When we came out, I checked the monitors and the next screenings were also sold out. It was probably like that the entire day. I've never seen anything like it.
  #68  
Old 04-30-2019, 03:58 PM
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And A:E has a first: it has not broken a record.

It earned "merely" $36+M domestic on Monday. So Black Panther still holds the record for a Monday total (and in February of all things) at $40+M.

This suggests a fairly big frontloading for a sequel of this type, etc. Perhaps its total isn't going to be really all that amazing.

Oddly, BoxOfficeMojo has been slow in updating its list of all time 3,4,5, etc. day record totals. By day 3 it had already surpassed the old records for 4, and 5 days. It now holds the record for 6 and 7 days as well. Do they think the movie's going to bring in negative money this week?
  #69  
Old 04-30-2019, 04:12 PM
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And A:E has a first: it has not broken a record.

It earned "merely" $36+M domestic on Monday. So Black Panther still holds the record for a Monday total (and in February of all things) at $40+M.
That was President's Day 2018, FWIW.
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Old 05-01-2019, 04:19 PM
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That was President's Day 2018, FWIW.
Thanks, all I saw was that it was a bit after Valentine's Day which wouldn't have caused any box office effect for a Monday at all. Forgot about that other day.

And a similar thing has happened with not having a record Tuesday. A:E brought in $33M which doesn't beat SW:TFA at $37M. That Tuesday was 3 days before Xmas so a lot of people out of school, etc.

The total is now well over $400M setting a new record reaching that in 5 days vs. the old one of 8 days held by SW:TFA. Remember when $100M total was considered implausible enough to be used as a bit in S.O.B.?

A record Wednesday is ridiculously out of reach as that belongs to the opening of a Twilight Saga film.

So mainly "fastest to" records plus the question of can it knock off the crappy Avatar movie off its worldwide total perch?
  #71  
Old 05-01-2019, 04:50 PM
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Yeah, but that's a tough one to figure. Mostly because the number includes all the releases it's had over the decades prior to the release of home video. It's a complicated calculation.

Over the years or home video and streaming, I used an inflation calculator on Avatar and come out with the $2.7 converts to:

$3.248B in inflation adjusted dollars.

So it's on pace. It may be a close thing.

In unadjusted dollars, though, I feel pretty good about passing Avatar. I've got tickets to see it again next weekend.
GwtW made 189 million dollars in its initial run. That's 1939 dollars. It's subsequent rereleases have only added a little over ten million to the total. Source: Box Office Mojo.

Also your Avatar total is for international money while GwtW only tracks domestic releases. So you can't really compare the two. Domestically Avatar is about 760 million domestic. BOM adds about another 100 million to account for inflation. Accounting for inflation worldwide is very tricky and doesn't track with ordinary inflation. And it's useless for discussing older movies as the international market wasn't even a thing.
  #72  
Old 05-01-2019, 05:42 PM
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Regarding the box office results for Gone with the Wind, Box Office Office Mojo only mentions re-releases in 1989, 1998 and 2019. But the Wikipedia article mentions earlier re-releases in 1942, 1947, 1954, 1961, 1967, 1971, and 1974. So it's unclear what's included in the $189 million figure.
  #73  
Old 05-02-2019, 11:38 PM
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Box Office Mojo now has weekend "actuals": $357,115,007.
To give it a little perspective, all other movies this weekend made $44,950,065.

I don't mean individually. That was their combined total.
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Old 05-03-2019, 03:57 PM
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To give it a little perspective, all other movies this weekend made $44,950,065.

I don't mean individually. That was their combined total.
I had sensed that it might reach 90% of the box office, but it fell a bit short.

This is not good news for a lot of people. Modest films are being pushed out of theatrical release entirely. They go streaming after the festival circuit. Amazon and Netflix type companies are buying up films at festivals instead of the traditional small studios. And the small indie studios? Well, that was an interesting chapter in cinema history.

It's getting closer and closer to the old Henry Ford line: You can see any movie you want in the theater as as long as it's a (Disney) blockbuster.
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Old 05-03-2019, 04:04 PM
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I don't think that's entirely true; last weekend my twenty-screen multiplex had this movie on only nine screens when I watched it Saturday morning. So the others were available for smaller films. And I've seen plenty of smaller, even arthouse films there and in the specialty theaters. Usually, though, they avoid the brief windows when theaters are dominated by the blockbuster comic book movies. And there's always an audience for a movie aimed at grown-ups.
  #76  
Old 05-03-2019, 05:53 PM
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Just wanted to add that, one week in, Mojo now lists it as Top 15 all-time domestic and Top 5 all-time worldwide. So even if it flops in Week Two, its still huge.

(Im just kidding; who the heck would think itll flop in Week Two?)
  #77  
Old 05-03-2019, 06:20 PM
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It's getting closer and closer to the old Henry Ford line: You can see any movie you want in the theater as as long as it's a (Disney) blockbuster.
Blockbusters are really the only films that I want to see on the big screen anyways, Amazon and Netflix are exactly where i want to see any other type of film.
  #78  
Old 05-03-2019, 07:31 PM
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This is not good news for a lot of people. Modest films are being pushed out of theatrical release entirely. They go streaming after the festival circuit. Amazon and Netflix type companies are buying up films at festivals instead of the traditional small studios. And the small indie studios? Well, that was an interesting chapter in cinema history.
When wasn't that true? The big studios used to own the theater chains. How many independent films do you think they showed? And even when the studios sold off their theaters, the theaters stuck with studio-made films. Theatrical release has always been a bottleneck for indie films.

At least now there are alternative venues, like streaming services, cable channels, and home release. This is probably the best time we've ever had for making independent films.
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Old 05-03-2019, 07:58 PM
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Blockbusters are really the only films that I want to see on the big screen anyways, Amazon and Netflix are exactly where i want to see any other type of film.
Me too. I still like watching smaller films, but going to the theater is a pain in the ass and I only want to do it for things that HAVE to be seen on the big screen. I rarely see anything not in an Imax theater and everything else can wait for streaming where I can sit comfortably in my couch with a drink and snack I didn't overpay for and pause it when I want to take a bathroom break.
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Old 05-03-2019, 08:46 PM
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Yeah, gotta admit. I adored Paterson. But absolutely nothing would be added by my watching it in a theater instead of my living room. It's not the sort of film such would matter for.
  #81  
Old 05-04-2019, 09:24 PM
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I thought about taking simfamily to see it a second time tomorrow - I checked 6 viewing times in the afternoon - IMAX, RPX and 'regular' 2d - every single one functionally sold out again....
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Old 05-05-2019, 11:57 AM
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In its second weekend, A:E is estimated to make $145.8M. This is just slightly below SW:TFA's record second weekend, but actuals might change that. It had been projected to bring in $150+M. What a disappointment! A 59% drop which is bit less than I expected.

It's now over $2B globally ($600M away from Avatar) and 9th all-time domestic (unadjusted).

It looks like the total domestic box office fell ~50% this weekend due to A:E's drop and modest new films.

Next weekend is Pikachu time. I can't believe this is actually a challenge to A:E.
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Old 05-05-2019, 12:13 PM
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So the Avatar record is within striking distance. Still a bunch of other high-interest movies are releasing in the next few weeks. Aladdin opens on May 24, Dark Phoenix on June 7 and Toy Story 4 on June 21. Avatar had the advantage of opening at Christmas, and I think the early part of the year has few big movies.
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Old 05-05-2019, 12:23 PM
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So the Avatar record is within striking distance. Still a bunch of other high-interest movies are releasing in the next few weeks. Aladdin opens on May 24, Dark Phoenix on June 7 and Toy Story 4 on June 21. Avatar had the advantage of opening at Christmas, and I think the early part of the year has few big movies.
Is anyone really that interested in Dark Phoenix?
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Old 05-05-2019, 12:33 PM
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Is anyone really that interested in Dark Phoenix?
Probably more than Aladdin.
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Old 05-05-2019, 12:58 PM
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Probably more than Aladdin.
If my wife said "I want to see either Aladdin or Dark Phoenix," and left the choice up to me, I'd choose Aladdin just out of curiosity. I have no interest in seeing a retelling of X-Men 3.
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Old 05-05-2019, 01:11 PM
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Well, I'm assuming that Aladdin is aimed at children and families, more so than Dark Phoenix. Do the kids still watch the animated Disney version?

Last edited by Dewey Finn; 05-05-2019 at 01:12 PM.
  #88  
Old 05-05-2019, 01:42 PM
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If my wife said "I want to see either Aladdin or Dark Phoenix," and left the choice up to me, I'd choose Aladdin just out of curiosity. I have no interest in seeing a retelling of X-Men 3.
See, if I got that choice, Id be more likely to say no, I think they got Aladdin right the first time, because Id be plenty more curious about whether theyll manage to do something interesting with this telling of that X-Men story.
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Old 05-05-2019, 01:54 PM
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amazing how so much time is spent talking about how much money a movie makes. I guess some people use it as a way to judge the quality of a movie.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:16 PM
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Certainly there's no reason for most of us to care whether one movie from a giant corporation made more money than another movie from another giant corporation. We don't work there and we don't get a cut of the revenues. Years ago, I think The Daily Show would report the top-five box office results in Italian lira (as I said, it was a long time ago) just to point out how silly it was for the general audience to follow the numbers so avidly.

On the other hand, sometimes it does matter to me. If I really like a movie but it's a smaller, perhaps independent one, I want it to do well at the box office so the director and/or screenwriter are able to make more like it.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:36 PM
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amazing how so much time is spent talking about how much money a movie makes. I guess some people use it as a way to judge the quality of a movie.
It's important because it's an indicator of what sorts of projects studios will sink big production money into in the future.
If X-Men and Spider-Man hadn't done as well as they did, we'd never have the Avengers.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:40 PM
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But there will always be plenty of big budget comic book movies since that's what sells now.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:42 PM
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amazing how so much time is spent talking about how much money a movie makes. I guess some people use it as a way to judge the quality of a movie.
Why does anyone follow anything? Why do people follow sports? It isn't going to affect your life in any way if your team fails to repeat last years championships. But people are interested.

I started reading box office mojo a while ago, and its just a matter of idle curiosity. If it doesn't appeal to you, that's fine but I don't get why you need to sneer at it.

For this movie in particular, it's just an amazing social phenomenon. Some people doubted whether it was physically possible for a movie to have the opening weekend it did, given the finite amount of theater seats in existence. But here we are.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:44 PM
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Does it have enough in it to make it over Avatar? I am hopeful.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:46 PM
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Does it have enough in it to make it over Avatar? I am hopeful.
It's only week 2, this is going to blow past Avatar.
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Old 05-05-2019, 02:55 PM
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It's only week 2, this is going to blow past Avatar.
The news today mentioned that Avatar reached the two-billion-dollar mark in 47 days (as compared to this flick getting there during well, as you say, week 2).
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Old 05-05-2019, 04:49 PM
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It's only week 2, this is going to blow past Avatar.
Can it cross 3 billion?
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Old 05-05-2019, 04:56 PM
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Box Office Mojo today says the box office is just slightly under $2.2 billion and slightly more than Titanic. As for why I care, it's mostly that I'm annoyed that the unadjusted record is held by Avatar, which was such a forgettable film. People remember other big movies (like Titanic), quote them and refer to them. But Avatar seems to have had no lasting impact.

Last edited by Dewey Finn; 05-05-2019 at 04:57 PM.
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Old 05-05-2019, 05:00 PM
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The news today mentioned that Avatar reached the two-billion-dollar mark in 47 days (as compared to this flick getting there during well, as you say, week 2).
It's not a valid comparison, though - Avatar, like Titanic, had a relatively modest opening weekend followed by very low week-to-week drops. For whatever reason, James Cameron films have amazing "legs". Endgame may very well pass Avatar, but it won't make nearly as much money on its 7th weekend.
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Old 05-05-2019, 06:38 PM
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amazing how so much time is spent talking about how much money a movie makes. I guess some people use it as a way to judge the quality of a movie.
While I won't say that's impossible, it strikes me as pretty unlikely; culturally most people learn that popularity/financial success doesn't indicate quality during junior high/middle school conversations about music. And pretty much every movie fan has movies they think were great that didn't make a dime (Dark City), and movies they thought were dreck that made a fortune (Avatar).

People talk box office because it's a good indicator of impending or continuing Hollywood trends, and for specific films it tells you if you'll get a sequel, though you can't guess if the sequel will be as good (The Matrix sequels).
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