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Old 11-06-2019, 09:09 AM
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Both houses in Virginia flip from R to D and Kentucky Governor too!


So Republicans had both houses in Virginia and now Democrats have both. When does redistricting happen?

In Kentucky, where Trump campaigned for the incumbent Matt Bevin, he lost anyway.

Will this convince some Republicans Congressmen & Senators that blind public support of Trump is not to their benefit?

Last edited by What Exit?; 11-06-2019 at 09:10 AM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:59 AM
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Republicans still have no choice but to super glue their lips to Donald's orange tush. If they fail to pledge perpetual fealty to the Orang-a-Don, they will be primaried by someone who is willing to do so. So they have the devil's choice- continue to hold tight to Donald and lose in a general election, or split off from him and lose in a primary.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:30 AM
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Republicans still have no choice but to super glue their lips to Donald's orange tush. If they fail to pledge perpetual fealty to the Orang-a-Don, they will be primaried by someone who is willing to do so. So they have the devil's choice- continue to hold tight to Donald and lose in a general election, or split off from him and lose in a primary.
Or pass "voter ID" laws, close voting sites, re-write state constitutions after they lose, gerrymander, scare minorities away from answering on the census, and lie, lie, lie, lie until there aren't enough democrat votes left to matter.

Which seems to be the current plan, and it's working nicely for them in most places.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:40 AM
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Republicans still have no choice but to super glue their lips to Donald's orange tush. If they fail to pledge perpetual fealty to the Orang-a-Don, they will be primaried by someone who is willing to do so. So they have the devil's choice- continue to hold tight to Donald and lose in a general election, or split off from him and lose in a primary.
I disagree. Most of the Republicans who have been supporting Trump are just opportunists. They've been following him because he's been winning. The second they no longer see an advantage out of riding Trump's coattails, they'll abandon him. And deny they ever supported him.

As for primary threats, let's not forget these are Republicans. They know how to rig elections. They're not even going to break a sweat outmaneuvering Trump's base.
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Old 11-06-2019, 12:13 PM
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A Democrat won the race here in Upstate New York for Monroe County Executive, the head of the country legislature and effectively the county boss, beating the incumbant. That's the first time in almost 30 years and I didn't expect to see another one in my lifetime.
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Old 11-06-2019, 12:45 PM
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Trump campaigned for Matt Bevin in Kentucky last night and said to the crowd, "You gotta vote because if you lose, it sends a really bad message. It just sends a bad and they're going to build it up ... You can't let that happen to me."
So Donald threw a tantrum and held his breath until Kentucky turned blue.

My takeaways:
The suburbs of Cincinnati and Louisville abandoned the Republican in Kentucky, suburban voters in Virginia did as well. I don't see this as anything but good news for Democrats. If urban and suburban areas vote solidly blue, there simply aren't enough rural voters to carry the day in states like OH, PA, MI, WI, and FL to save the day for any Republican nominee. We could be entering the golden age of Democratic rule.

Mississippi played true to form and it's hard to see that state flipping in the next decade.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:29 PM
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So Donald threw a tantrum and held his breath until Kentucky turned blue.

My takeaways:
The suburbs of Cincinnati and Louisville abandoned the Republican in Kentucky, suburban voters in Virginia did as well. I don't see this as anything but good news for Democrats. If urban and suburban areas vote solidly blue, there simply aren't enough rural voters to carry the day in states like OH, PA, MI, WI, and FL to save the day for any Republican nominee. We could be entering the golden age of Democratic rule.

Mississippi played true to form and it's hard to see that state flipping in the next decade.
Not to rain on your parade (well, kind of), but I think you're reading far too much into this Kentucky win.

1) Kentucky has a long history of electing dems for governor (only 3 Republican governors in the last 70+ years)

2) Bevin's loss has far more to do with his own personal unpopularity than some party realignment in the suburbs. While Bevin was losing his race by ~5,000 votes, the Republican candidates were trouncing the dems in statewide races for Secretary of State (by ~65,000 votes), Attorney General (by ~221,000 votes), Treasurer (by ~301,000 votes), Auditor (by ~205,000 votes), and Agriculture Commissioner (by ~276,000 votes)


I suppose you could be entering "the golden age of Democratic rule", but it's more likely that you're not. Kentucky hasn't "turned blue".

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 11-06-2019 at 01:32 PM.
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Old 11-07-2019, 03:15 PM
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So Donald threw a tantrum and held his breath until Kentucky turned blue.

My takeaways:
The suburbs of Cincinnati and Louisville abandoned the Republican in Kentucky, suburban voters in Virginia did as well. I don't see this as anything but good news for Democrats. If urban and suburban areas vote solidly blue, there simply aren't enough rural voters to carry the day in states like OH, PA, MI, WI, and FL to save the day for any Republican nominee. We could be entering the golden age of Democratic rule.
Until we get cocky or overconfident.

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Mississippi played true to form and it's hard to see that state flipping in the next decade.
I can see Texas and Georgia flipping
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:08 PM
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I disagree. Most of the Republicans who have been supporting Trump are just opportunists. They've been following him because he's been winning. The second they no longer see an advantage out of riding Trump's coattails, they'll abandon him. And deny they ever supported him.
None of that actually contradicts what BobLibDem wrote.

Last edited by Miller; 11-06-2019 at 01:08 PM.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:46 AM
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None of that actually contradicts what BobLibDem wrote.
I don't feel so. Trump's base may be loud but I don't feel they control the nuts and bolts of the party organization. Let's face it; most of them aren't smart enough to run a complex organization like a national party.

The people who are running the day-to-day operations of the Republican Party aren't married to Trump. They're in it for the long run; they've been around for thirty years and plan on being around for decades into the future. As far as Trump's people are concerned, the world ends in 2024.

Yes, they're working with Trump now. He's a Republican and he won the election. But they'd be happier working with somebody like Pence or Romney or McConnell or Ryan; one of their own.

So when some mainstream conservative Republican faces a primary challenge from some fire-breathing Trumphead and the GOP leaders think the Trumphead will lose the general election to the Democrat, they'll quietly step in. The Trumphead will be out on the streets screaming about how people need to keep their faith in Beloved Leader. But then suddenly he'll notice he isn't on the primary ballot and the mainstream conservative is running unopposed. And the Republican leadership will say "Oh, gee, did nobody remind you that you needed to have your special eligibility request documentation Form-R1098 submitted ninety business days before the primary? I guess we forgot to mention that and you weren't aware of the proper procedure. That's too bad."
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Old 11-07-2019, 09:22 AM
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I don't feel so. Trump's base may be loud but I don't feel they control the nuts and bolts of the party organization. Let's face it; most of them aren't smart enough to run a complex organization like a national party.

The people who are running the day-to-day operations of the Republican Party aren't married to Trump. They're in it for the long run; they've been around for thirty years and plan on being around for decades into the future. As far as Trump's people are concerned, the world ends in 2024.

Yes, they're working with Trump now. He's a Republican and he won the election. But they'd be happier working with somebody like Pence or Romney or McConnell or Ryan; one of their own.

So when some mainstream conservative Republican faces a primary challenge from some fire-breathing Trumphead and the GOP leaders think the Trumphead will lose the general election to the Democrat, they'll quietly step in. The Trumphead will be out on the streets screaming about how people need to keep their faith in Beloved Leader. But then suddenly he'll notice he isn't on the primary ballot and the mainstream conservative is running unopposed. And the Republican leadership will say "Oh, gee, did nobody remind you that you needed to have your special eligibility request documentation Form-R1098 submitted ninety business days before the primary? I guess we forgot to mention that and you weren't aware of the proper procedure. That's too bad."
I hope that you are more right than I am. My fear is that those currently in the Donald Cult are in it for the long run. Long after he has left the stage, they are going to look for the candidate in the primary who exhibits the most white nationalism and the most contempt for the poor. Suppose that a post-presidential Donald decides that he is going to be the kingmaker. He'd still hold his massive rallies of the faithful, instructing them who to support. Even after death, his sons would pick up the torch and continue his mission- not because they believe in it, but because the rubes are easy marks for buying merchandise. The Wall Street Republicans may not like it, but their party may have been permanently taken over by the white nationalists.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:13 AM
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Or Republican office-holders can do what they believe is right for America and oppose other Republican politicians' gaslighting of Republican voters. Then, they can defeat primary challengers who will look like delusional traitors in the thrall of a con man and they can see if voters in the general actually want the real Republican policies they support. Maybe there is a way for Republicans to be decent people without trashing democracy. I recognize that this is not their game plan now.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:04 PM
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Or Republican office-holders can do what they believe is right for America and oppose other Republican politicians' gaslighting of Republican voters. Then, they can defeat primary challengers who will look like delusional traitors in the thrall of a con man and they can see if voters in the general actually want the real Republican policies they support. Maybe there is a way for Republicans to be decent people without trashing democracy. I recognize that this is not their game plan now.
Even before the rise of Trump, the Tea Party proved that a determined group of single-issue fanatics can primary out any reasonable Republican candidate or hound them so badly, veteran Congress members and Senators decided it's not worth the political and personal wear and tear to fight the nuts' craziness every single day.

Trump simply put a face on a movement. Even if every single living Republican politician found Jesus, there are more nuts waiting in the wings to take them down.

Of course, it affects the Dems, too. Just ask Al Gore about the 97,000 Florida voters who voted for Ralph Nader, or Hillary Clinton about the Bernie Bros who stayed home in November.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:10 PM
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Of course, it affects the Dems, too. Just ask Al Gore about the 97,000 Florida voters who voted for Ralph Nader, or Hillary Clinton about the Bernie Bros who stayed home in November.
The Libertarian Party was crowing on twitter that their candidate received 28,000 votes in an election decided by five thousand. I never know how to interpret data like that but I do find it interesting if true.

edit: in Kentucky, I mean.

Last edited by Red Wiggler; 11-06-2019 at 01:10 PM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:27 PM
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Democrats didn't win any of the county legislature seats in my county. [ETA: which is not surprising.]

However, Democrats ran for county legislature seats in three out of four districts; which often doesn't happen. And they all pulled a significant number of votes, on the same order as the winning R's.

Last edited by thorny locust; 11-06-2019 at 01:27 PM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:17 AM
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Thanks for not fucking that up for once, Kentucky.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:30 AM
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This will be the first time the Democrats control the Virginia House of Delegates since 1997, and the first time since 1993 that Democrats will control all three elected elements of the Virginia government.

Democratic control of the Virginia Senate is by the 21-19 minimum. One of the essential Senators will be Ghazala Hashmi, the first Muslim woman ever to be elected to the Virginia Senate.

Let us hope and pray that this glimpse of light is a harbinger of escape from our horrid national nightmare.

Last edited by septimus; 11-06-2019 at 10:31 AM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:27 PM
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This will be the first time the Democrats control the Virginia House of Delegates since 1997, and the first time since 1993 that Democrats will control all three elected elements of the Virginia government.

Democratic control of the Virginia Senate is by the 21-19 minimum. One of the essential Senators will be Ghazala Hashmi, the first Muslim woman ever to be elected to the Virginia Senate.

Let us hope and pray that this glimpse of light is a harbinger of escape from our horrid national nightmare.
Absolutely. And let us further hope Virginia will pass serious, meaningful legislation addressing such issues and gun control, health care, infrastructure building, etc., that will show obvious benefits, that other states will take notice, and that my home state will be a leader in bringing the US into the 21st century. But I'm not overly optimistic.
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Old 11-07-2019, 03:18 PM
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Absolutely. And let us further hope Virginia will pass serious, meaningful legislation addressing such issues and gun control, health care, infrastructure building, etc., that will show obvious benefits, that other states will take notice, and that my home state will be a leader in bringing the US into the 21st century. But I'm not overly optimistic.
And THAT is how you lose a thin majority in the Virginia Senate. We won some of those seats by pretty slim margins.

If you want to advance a progressive agenda, wait until after the redistricting passes muster.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:35 AM
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In Kentucky, where Trump campaigned for the incumbent Matt Bevin, he lost anyway.
Kyle Griffin, MSNBC:
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Trump campaigned for Matt Bevin in Kentucky last night and said to the crowd, "You gotta vote because if you lose, it sends a really bad message. It just sends a bad and they're going to build it up ... You can't let that happen to me."
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:37 AM
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Kyle Griffin, MSNBC:
Sweet
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:39 AM
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Narrator: They let that happen to him.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:05 PM
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The county council of Delaware County, Pennsylvania is 5-0 Democrat for the first time since the Civil War.
The woman who flipped the bird to Individual 1's motorcade and lost her job got elected to the Loudoun County, Virginia Board of Supervisors.
Several Somali women have won seats in various boards and state legislatures in various states.
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:27 PM
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The county council of Delaware County, Pennsylvania is 5-0 Democrat for the first time since the Civil War.
That is absolutely amazing. In 1955 my family moved from Philly to Delco. In those days the political power in a county government was a 3 man (okay, person, but they were all men) commission and each party was allowed to put up only two candidates. This guaranteed a minority voice on the commission, right? Not exactly. The Republican majority in Delco was so large that they could afford to have 15,000 Republicans register as Democrats and get to vote in Democratic primary for a DINO who was really a Republican and so there were never any real Dems on it. So now Delco is entirely Democrat and I think that's amazing.

I just googled it and discovered that the county chose this form of a 5 person council, the first county in PA to do so.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:50 PM
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So the Libertarians pulled 2% of the Kentucky gubernatorial vote which is way more than the margin of victory for the Dems. Strange to see the Libertarian party actually affect something.
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:02 PM
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So the Libertarians pulled 2% of the Kentucky gubernatorial vote which is way more than the margin of victory for the Dems. Strange to see the Libertarian party actually affect something.
This was their statement following the election:
Quote:
In an ideal world, we elect Libertarian candidates and advance liberty. Failing that, we push mainstream candidates towards liberty to advance the cause.

But if we can’t do those things, we are always happy to split the vote in a way that causes delicious tears. Tonight there are plenty of delicious tears from Bevin supporters.

Had Matt Bevin not ditched his liberty Lt Governor for a Mitch McConnell picked anti liberty, corrupt running mate who has tried to eliminate Kentuckians jury trial rights, had Matt Bevin not presided over a huge sales tax increase, had Matt Bevin supported any of our key issues on criminal justice reform, marijuana legalization, expanded gaming, cutting taxes, or acted with the least bit of civility, we probably would not have run a candidate. Of course, he did the opposite. And here we are.

We split the vote. And we could not be more thrilled. If our friends in the major parties do not want this to happen again, they should think about passing ranked choice voting. And supporting our issues.
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Old 11-06-2019, 03:01 PM
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The Kentucky win is a minor snub to Trump, Virginia looms much larger for the Democrats fortunes.
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Old 11-06-2019, 03:59 PM
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Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor's election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide.
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...s/4174103002/?
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:14 PM
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Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor's election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide.
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...s/4174103002/?
"Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner."
Izzat so?
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:21 PM
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"Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner."
Izzat so?
Probably. I'd say almost certainly. I think I've only ever known one guy who was essentially a Democrat but voted Libertarian and he's some Gary Johnson devotee.

But "This guy got the votes we wanted" doesn't make a race "Contested" and I think the largest hurdle for the state senate picking is that the race is unlikely to actually be contested if it's been recanvassed and potentially recounted and Beshear is still the winner by thousands of votes. At that point, you're not settling a contested race, you're just overthrowing the election.
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:23 PM
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"If you took the votes away from that guy, and gave them to our guy instead" seems logical enough for today's Republican party.

Last edited by bobot; 11-06-2019 at 04:23 PM.
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Old 11-07-2019, 10:51 AM
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"Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner."
Izzat so?
You know what Republicans should do? They should propose an election system where citizens get to rank their choices while voting.
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:59 AM
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You know what Republicans should do? They should propose an election system where citizens get to rank their choices while voting.
Yes. There are probably better systems available to us -- and they're almost all better than first past the post -- but RCV is a good first step.

Approval voting, for example, would be a sensible way for a major political party to apply to its primary systems. Now, there are lots of obstacles to doing that, most notably that states control their own processes, but we'll never do anything smart if we don't start trying to at some point.
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:18 PM
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Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor's election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide.
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...s/4174103002/?
Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar.
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:24 PM
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Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar.
Seems like there's a significant difference between a random person saying "Government person, overturn it for the love of humanity!" and the actual government person stroking his chin and saying "You know, we COULD just ignore the election and do this instead..."
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Old 11-06-2019, 04:54 PM
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Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar.
The members of the state legislature are not electors.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:36 PM
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Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar.
Er, you seem to have confused the actor from the musical (whose name I don't recall offhand, but whom I stipulate may have been a "Hollywood liberal") with the actual Alexander Hamilton:

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Originally Posted by The Federalist Papers, #68
It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any preestablished body, but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture.

It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations....
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:35 PM
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Er, you seem to have confused the actor from the musical (whose name I don't recall offhand, but whom I stipulate may have been a "Hollywood liberal") with the actual Alexander Hamilton:
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Federalist Papers, #68
It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any preestablished body, but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture.

It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations....
Hamilton was clearly a Never Trumper, and probably never was able to pork Cheryl Tiegs. Sad. People are saying that he was not that great.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:07 PM
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Kind of reminds of when the liberals in Hollywood were begging Trump electors to do something similar.
And this reminds the rest of us why Whataboutism is the last refuge of those who cannot make a substantive contribution.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:14 PM
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Kentucky Republicans are talking about nullifying the Governor's election and letting the Republican controlled legislature decide.
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...s/4174103002/?
They can't just decide to do it; the Sec of State is a Democrat, and a tie-breaker, and has already suggested Bevin should concede.

A reminder of why "little" elections like Sec of State actually do matter.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:24 PM
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They can't just decide to do it; the Sec of State is a Democrat, and a tie-breaker, and has already suggested Bevin should concede.

A reminder of why "little" elections like Sec of State actually do matter.
A follow up..

I may be wrong (not familiar with KY law) but apparently Bevin believes he can kick it to the legislature if he can establish voter fraud or some cause. I think it still typically goes to the Sec of State, but what happens of the legislature refuses to accept certification, I don't know.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:05 PM
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Thanks for not fucking that up for once, Kentucky.
You're welcome!

-Superdude, Kentucky resident
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  #43  
Old 11-06-2019, 08:44 PM
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I have a question about what the Dems in VA will do after the census. Will they simply gerrymander the state to their own advantage, saying turnabout is fair play? What I hope they do is get together with the other party and amend the state constitution to ban the gerrymander. Although it sounds hard, PA apparently has something in its constitution that the state courts decided outlaws gerrymandering and the court actually had to redistrict since the Rep-controlled legislature was unable to do so.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:16 PM
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Apparently the Philadelphia city council has a seat reserved for a minority party. That minority party has been the Republicans for 70 years. In yesterday's election, the seat went to the Working Families Party.
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Old 11-06-2019, 10:48 PM
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Should the result hold up, the impact of Bashear getting elected may be fairly limited. The legislature is still held by Republicans, and I read that the Governor's veto can be overturned by a simply majority of legislators. I assume that the Kentucky legislature will follow the example of North Carolina when Roy Cooper was elected Governor and strip his office of as much power as they can.
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:59 PM
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... I assume that the Kentucky legislature will follow the example of North Carolina when Roy Cooper was elected Governor and strip his office of as much power as they can.
With compromise the new order of the day, perhaps they'll strip him of just 90% as much power as they can.
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Old 11-07-2019, 02:51 PM
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Should the result hold up, the impact of Bashear getting elected may be fairly limited. The legislature is still held by Republicans, and I read that the Governor's veto can be overturned by a simply majority of legislators. I assume that the Kentucky legislature will follow the example of North Carolina when Roy Cooper was elected Governor and strip his office of as much power as they can.
In a way, I kinda wouldn't mind seeing the KY legislature steal the election from the Dems. It would be wildly unpopular and put all kinds of attention on the Republican party, which is really what needs to happen instead of fixating outrage on individuals. It's the entire party that's rotten to the core. Pulling that kind of stunt is only going to harden the resolve of Dems to bring more people out to the polls next time.
  #48  
Old 11-07-2019, 02:59 PM
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Help me out, please - how, hypothetically, could the KY Legislature overturn the election results?
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Old 11-07-2019, 03:06 PM
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Help me out, please - how, hypothetically, could the KY Legislature overturn the election results?
From the link above:
Quote:
A candidate can file a formal election contest with the state legislature, but it must be filed within 30 days of the last action by the state board of elections. The state board is scheduled to certify the results of the race for governor on Nov. 25 this year.

Under this contest, the candidate challenging the results must specify the grounds for the action, such as a violation of campaign finance rules or specific problems when it comes to how ballots were cast.

Such an election contest is covered under Section 90 of the state constitution, which addresses a "contest of election for Governor or Lieutenant Governor."

Section 90 states: "Contested elections for Governor and Lieutenant Governor shall be determined by both Houses of the General Assembly, according to such regulations as may be established by law."
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