Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-11-2018, 08:53 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
What businesses would see major innovation if a new competitor entered the market

I'm basing this question off two examples.

1. Tesla entering the car market created pressure among auto makers to create electric cars. Now a dozen companies offer electric car options.

2. Google fiber made broadband companies realize they had to offer gigabit speed if they wanted to compete with Google. Now several offer gigabit internet.

So with examples like this where a company was able to bring a new and valuable product to market, but lacked the incentive until a new competitor came to the market and pressured them, what other fields or services are ripe for new and better advances and products if a good competitor enters the market and forces them to compete?

I believe Atul Gawande said posting medical prices online led to more expensive medical services going down in price. I wonder if easy to obtain overseas medical care would incentivize cheaper medical care in the USA by forcing competition. I assume so.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion

Last edited by Wesley Clark; 09-11-2018 at 08:54 PM.
  #2  
Old 09-11-2018, 09:36 PM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
Domo Arigato Mister Moderato
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: On the run with Kilroy
Posts: 21,576
The funny thing about both of your examples is that neither made a real dent in the market.

1. Google Fiber never really took off. According to wiki it has about half a million customers nationwide. After five plus years? Not really burning up the marketplace.

2. Tesla? Who the hell knows. With production delays and Musk apparently losing his fucking mind on camera who knows. But the firm has barely dented the auto market as a whole.

You could be right that these firms caused larger, more muscular - and less rock star enabled - firms to move forward on projects they otherwise wouldn't have. But it might also be a matter of 'when it's time to railroad, people get railroading'. When the state of the art finally arrives, people start innovating.

I do agree with you that publicizing what hospitals charge for medical events - and increasing overseas competition for pricier events - would bring the cost down in the United States. No doubt in my mind, there.
  #3  
Old 09-11-2018, 10:19 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
Neither company really established themselves in the market. But they created pressure which pushed the established companies to offer better goods and services in order to compete.

Even if Tesla and Google fiber both fail, they still encouraged the wealthier, entrenched companies to provide better products to the public to compete with the upstarts.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion

Last edited by Wesley Clark; 09-11-2018 at 10:20 PM.
  #4  
Old 09-11-2018, 10:29 PM
DavidwithanR DavidwithanR is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,669
I don't know whether it's true, but I hypothesize that the best thing about the rise of Starbucks is that any business that had terrible coffee was suddenly put under immense pressure to do something about it.

Last edited by DavidwithanR; 09-11-2018 at 10:29 PM.
  #5  
Old 09-11-2018, 11:16 PM
wolfpup's Avatar
wolfpup wolfpup is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 9,243
The "public option" of the ACA, if it was ever enacted, would definitely shake up the health insurers in a big way, though I'm not sure how they would react. One constructive way they could react might be to try to offer that option themselves, essentially creating a commodity policy that was the same regardless of which insurer you bought it from, which would greatly streamline administration and help commoditize the industry and move it toward something resembling Germany's regulated public "sickness funds".
  #6  
Old 09-12-2018, 01:25 PM
Buck Godot's Avatar
Buck Godot Buck Godot is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: MD outside DC
Posts: 5,035
What you would probably want to look for is a situation where everyone is more or less dissatisfied with the current selection available, but goes along with it anyway because all the companies are the same. The best example of this I can think of is health insurance. The intorduction of a company that finds a good way to provide good service to their subscribers and yet keep costs under control could be a game changer.

ETA: what wolfpup said.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 09-12-2018 at 01:26 PM.
  #7  
Old 09-12-2018, 04:03 PM
DrCube DrCube is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Caseyville, IL
Posts: 7,035
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidwithanR View Post
I don't know whether it's true, but I hypothesize that the best thing about the rise of Starbucks is that any business that had terrible coffee was suddenly put under immense pressure to do something about it.
This already happened. I don't know if you remember McDonald's and Denny's coffee from the 1990s, but it was godawful. The stuff they serve now is not gourmet, but it's significantly better than it used to be. I attribute that change to the coffee craze of the 90s, spearheaded by Starbucks and highlighted by Frasier.

And I was watching some old commercials from the 60s recently, advertising instant Folger's crystals ("It tastes fresh perked because it is fresh perked!"). I really don't know how people lived like that. Percolated coffee is awful, and instant coffee is worse. So coffee has had more than one society-wide improvement in the last 50 years. But the one I distinctly remember is the turn of this century. Fast food and diners everywhere really upped their coffee game around 1999-2003.
  #8  
Old 09-12-2018, 04:15 PM
scr4 scr4 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Alabama
Posts: 14,898
I think the textbook industry is ripe for major disruption, but I'm not sure what that would look like.
  #9  
Old 09-12-2018, 05:15 PM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 7,898
Almost all US coffee used be the Robusta type and a lot of people percolated(burned) it. Those were 2 bad things. Starbucks made people switch to drip coffee making and Arabica coffee.
  #10  
Old 09-12-2018, 06:11 PM
DavidwithanR DavidwithanR is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 3,669
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrCube View Post
This already happened. I don't know if you remember McDonald's and Denny's coffee from the 1990s, but it was godawful. The stuff they serve now is not gourmet, but it's significantly better than it used to be. I attribute that change to the coffee craze of the 90s, spearheaded by Starbucks and highlighted by Frasier.

And I was watching some old commercials from the 60s recently, advertising instant Folger's crystals ("It tastes fresh perked because it is fresh perked!"). I really don't know how people lived like that. Percolated coffee is awful, and instant coffee is worse. So coffee has had more than one society-wide improvement in the last 50 years. But the one I distinctly remember is the turn of this century. Fast food and diners everywhere really upped their coffee game around 1999-2003.
That was exactly what I meant in the first place - I just couldn't prove that Starbucks had anything to do with it.
  #11  
Old 09-12-2018, 06:29 PM
wolfpup's Avatar
wolfpup wolfpup is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 9,243
Another great example from the past that I remember vividly was the introduction of broadband. Turns out that ADSL signaling over conventional copper wiring was first developed way back in the 80s, but nothing was really heard about it for more than a decade. The telcos were still plodding along promising ISDN with 64Kbit channels, which wasn't much faster than the best dialup modems of the day, but by golly basic ISDN had two of them, so you could have voice and data at the same time, or tie them together and get an awesome 128Kbps of Internet speed!

But then the first broadband over cable pilot in North America happened right in this area, and soon after, broadband over cable exploded all over, initially offering speeds in the multiple-megabit range and getting faster as time went on.

And whaddaya know, almost immediately, it was suddenly possible for the telcos to offer ADSL services with exactly the same speeds at exactly the same prices! And within the limitations of DSL technology they've kept pace ever since, and as the cable operators upgraded their infrastructure, so did the telcos, eventually laying fiber right to the home in many areas.

One suspects that had it not been for cable broadband, we'd have been stuck with dialup modems -- or low-speed digital services -- for a very long time.
  #12  
Old 09-12-2018, 06:43 PM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 752
The auto makers are not afraid of competition from itsy bitsy Tesla.

What they are afraid of in Europe is huge the fines for fixing the emissions tests, the VW dieselgate scandal rocked the auto business. Diesel is the biggest seller in Europe, but no longer. Public anxiety over clean air as health hazard has led to a raft of laws in the pipeline restricting the use of diesel and petrol powered vehicles in cities. Governments in the big markets of Europe and China have made it quite clear where they are going with this and the big auto makers have responded by making huge investments to develop electric vehicles.

I expect the US companies will follow the same path, it seems to be a worldwide trend.

Googles foray into fibre is mainly for their own purposes. They have a lot of datacentres and they want to be in control of the bandwidth between them, they want to own the fibres. That makes sense. All telcos use fibre for the backbone of their networks, it is a very long established technology. In most developed ecomomies its is recognised that the next step is to run fibre to the home. Some countries have made big advances towards this goal, with encouragement from the government. It is a huge long tern investment. The telco business in the US is not as competitive as it should be at a local level. But Google does not show any indication of wanting the dig up the roads and string fibres to every home across the US. The numbers probably don't add up.

A better example might be selling of prescription drugs in the US. If the regulatory protections that maintain a monopoly by the drug companies are changed to allow imports from Canada or any other country, the market would open up and the prices would fall. But the drug companies will fight very hard to preserve their cash cow.

There are many markets like this. So much easier to make money when you have a monopoly. But it takes innovation at a government level to unblock markets and force them to be competitive. Some companies try to force change in regulation by legal challenges. I expect Uber have quite a formidable legal team.
  #13  
Old 09-12-2018, 06:55 PM
sisu sisu is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: oi, oi, oi
Posts: 2,249
Most "new" products are often the second or third iteration of the trend, Apple did not make the first smart phone, Google not the first search engine, Tesla is not the first electric car etc etc.

What Apple, Google and to a lesser extent Tesla did was to change the market.
__________________
My opinions may or may not reflect the truth.........
  #14  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:38 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
Quote:
Originally Posted by scr4 View Post
I think the textbook industry is ripe for major disruption, but I'm not sure what that would look like.
How would it be disrupted?

I know that lots of students just download ebooks from the internet rather than buy the books. I would assume this would affect the market because if they keep jacking up the prices, there is no incentive to actually buy the books.

But then they'll probably create a captive market by connecting various worksheets to the physical book that you can't get from the ebook.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
  #15  
Old 09-12-2018, 10:43 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
Quote:
Originally Posted by filmstar-en View Post
The auto makers are not afraid of competition from itsy bitsy Tesla.

What they are afraid of in Europe is huge the fines for fixing the emissions tests, the VW dieselgate scandal rocked the auto business. Diesel is the biggest seller in Europe, but no longer. Public anxiety over clean air as health hazard has led to a raft of laws in the pipeline restricting the use of diesel and petrol powered vehicles in cities. Governments in the big markets of Europe and China have made it quite clear where they are going with this and the big auto makers have responded by making huge investments to develop electric vehicles.

I expect the US companies will follow the same path, it seems to be a worldwide trend.

Googles foray into fibre is mainly for their own purposes. They have a lot of datacentres and they want to be in control of the bandwidth between them, they want to own the fibres. That makes sense. All telcos use fibre for the backbone of their networks, it is a very long established technology. In most developed ecomomies its is recognised that the next step is to run fibre to the home. Some countries have made big advances towards this goal, with encouragement from the government. It is a huge long tern investment. The telco business in the US is not as competitive as it should be at a local level. But Google does not show any indication of wanting the dig up the roads and string fibres to every home across the US. The numbers probably don't add up.

A better example might be selling of prescription drugs in the US. If the regulatory protections that maintain a monopoly by the drug companies are changed to allow imports from Canada or any other country, the market would open up and the prices would fall. But the drug companies will fight very hard to preserve their cash cow.

There are many markets like this. So much easier to make money when you have a monopoly. But it takes innovation at a government level to unblock markets and force them to be competitive. Some companies try to force change in regulation by legal challenges. I expect Uber have quite a formidable legal team.
Regulatory capture is probably what is holding back our health care system. If we had true international competition, that would force domestic providers to increase their quality and decrease prices. But as it stands, they've passed laws that prohibit genuine competition. If people could legally and easily buy daraprim for $0.10 from India and get open heart surgery for $2000 in the Caribbean, people wouldn't pay US prices for these things.

Same with broadband. My understanding is the big providers will endlessly tie a new provider up in court, and they have passed laws on the state and local level preventing any kind of public broadband to compete with the private carriers.

It sucks.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion

Last edited by Wesley Clark; 09-12-2018 at 10:44 PM.
  #16  
Old 09-13-2018, 12:09 AM
Batano Batano is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 296
I think healthcare. Amazon is primed to sell prescription drugs online. Imagine if Walmart decides to open small clinics in their stores: routine physicals, bloodwork, immunization, urgent care (vs emergency) for cuts and bruises, etc. You could be anywhere in the country and have your medical records available at the nearest Walmart. They are already partway there with their pharmacy and optical services.
  #17  
Old 09-13-2018, 01:08 AM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
True, but what the US really needs in the form of competition is probably things like.

Legalization of buying drugs overseas.
Being able to easily go overseas for surgery
Being able to easily go overseas for long term care
A strong public option tied to medicare to compete with insurance.

Things like that would probably whip the health care system into shape pretty fast.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
  #18  
Old 09-13-2018, 01:11 AM
PastTense PastTense is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 6,838
The problem with healthcare and healthcare insurance are the massive amounts of government regulation surrounding them. Without changes in them it is hard to see what any business could do to make a big impact in those areas.
  #19  
Old 09-13-2018, 06:57 AM
filmstar-en filmstar-en is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 752
'regulatory capture'

There should be a law against that.
  #20  
Old 09-13-2018, 07:35 AM
Cheesesteak Cheesesteak is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Lovely Montclair, NJ
Posts: 12,716
I also think healthcare problems are too tied to our structure of health care for an individual actor to move the needle.

Although, Amazon same day delivery of medication at lower prices than my neighborhood pharmacy may seriously disrupt the Pharmacy Industry, even if it's a small impact on health care as a whole. I don't think Amazon would inherently get better pricing on drugs than ExpressScripts or Caremark. The only thing there is that my local pharmacy isn't really a problem to be solved.
  #21  
Old 09-13-2018, 09:08 AM
Grim Render Grim Render is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 1,023
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
I believe Atul Gawande said posting medical prices online led to more expensive medical services going down in price. I wonder if easy to obtain overseas medical care would incentivize cheaper medical care in the USA by forcing competition. I assume so.
Overseas medical care is pretty easy to obtain, and cheap by US standards. It is estimated that between 1,5 - 2 million people leave the US for medical care each year. About 80 000 enter the US for medical care. Also, about 2 million get prescriptions filled in Canada, and an uncertain number (maybe 600 000) get health care in Canada on forged papers.

The problem is, people who leave the US for medical care are people who can afford to take the time off and pay the cost, but are still uninsured, under-insured and unable or unwilling to pay the US costs. That is a limited slice of the population.

In addition, the issues people get treated abroad can be neither emergencies nor chronic conditions.

In other words, the US healthcare industry has a large captive market that foreign competition cannot touch.
  #22  
Old 09-13-2018, 09:21 AM
PastTense PastTense is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 6,838
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheesesteak View Post
Although, Amazon same day delivery of medication at lower prices than my neighborhood pharmacy may seriously disrupt the Pharmacy Industry, even if it's a small impact on health care as a whole. I don't think Amazon would inherently get better pricing on drugs than ExpressScripts or Caremark. The only thing there is that my local pharmacy isn't really a problem to be solved.
There are already online pharmacies (I have used both the one by my insurance company and by walmart.com). Note that Amazon would have to have pharmacists in it's online pharmacy and would be making the same types arrangements with insurance companies as its competitors do.

One innovation that perhaps a new company could do would be a massive chain of urgent care clinics. As you have noticed they have started to appear. These fill the gap between the 9-5/Monday thru Friday hours of primary doctors (and often a multi-day wait to get an appointment) and the tremendous expense of going to the emergency room.
  #23  
Old 09-13-2018, 10:13 AM
Mumberthax Mumberthax is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 197
I'd like to see a new player enter the luxury watch industry. The last new entrant there is Hublot, and it's more interested in being edgy than it is at actually innovating anything.

I'd love to see an American counterpart to Rolex or Patek. I mean 100% American-made, in-house calibers, high quality, and a reputation for excellence. That should really shake up the game. Sure, there are some American watch brands. I mean manufactories - and using imported movements doesn't count.
__________________
Sincerely,
Mumberthax
My pronouns are they/them. What are yours?
  #24  
Old 09-13-2018, 11:59 AM
manson1972's Avatar
manson1972 manson1972 is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 8,643
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumberthax View Post
I'd like to see a new player enter the luxury watch industry. The last new entrant there is Hublot, and it's more interested in being edgy than it is at actually innovating anything.

I'd love to see an American counterpart to Rolex or Patek. I mean 100% American-made, in-house calibers, high quality, and a reputation for excellence. That should really shake up the game. Sure, there are some American watch brands. I mean manufactories - and using imported movements doesn't count.
They already have that. It's called an IPhone or a Samsung Galaxy
  #25  
Old 09-13-2018, 02:34 PM
Textual Innuendo Textual Innuendo is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buck Godot View Post
What you would probably want to look for is a situation where everyone is more or less dissatisfied with the current selection available, but goes along with it anyway because all the companies are the same.
This is tough, because most of those I can think of such as A) Healthcare, B) Cell service, and C) Cable companies, all have massive regulatory capture and correspondingly huge barriers to entry.

There are some tiny slivers of legitimate infrastructure barriers to B and C, but most other countries handle that with legislation to treat the infrastructure like a utility and allow free and open competition on the existing infrastructure by all comers.

But of course, that can't happen in the US, where the legislators are owned by the companies in A, B, and C.

Getting stuck in traffic is hated by everyone and has no real solution, but many good folks are working on self-driving cars that should help that.

Uber did a pretty good job disrupting the taxi industry in lots of cities, which was a similar situation of most people being unhappy but there being high regulatory barriers to entry. But that required some shady and reprehensible policies on their part, as well as pumping hundreds of millions to scale hugely while still in gray areas of legality that hadn't been defined yet.

One really great candidate for this much-needed disruption, where many are unhappy and have no real choice: politics! But since political systems are the apotheosis and alpha and omega of regulatory capture, that's a lamentably hazy pipe dream.
  #26  
Old 09-13-2018, 02:39 PM
Textual Innuendo Textual Innuendo is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 387
Oh, one I forgot - healthcare software. They all suck or are ridiculously expensive, and you have 2.5 choices: Cerner, Epic, or Mckesson. (okay, there's a few more tiny ones nobody uses)

So there's a limited selection that almost everybody hates either on features or price, but all the little players that have tried to innovate there have failed miserably in terms of widescale adoption.

I'm sure there's lots of other niche examples like this that most of us just don't know about, like PLC venders or industrial control software, or industrial equipment parts, and I'm hoping other dopers may eventually call some of those out.
  #27  
Old 09-13-2018, 02:47 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
As far as cell service, what pent up demand that could be met by a new provider are you seeing?

It seems like some providers have moved to unlimited 4g networks. Is there demand for more mobile data?

As far as cable, I could see an a la carte service disrupting everything.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
  #28  
Old 09-13-2018, 02:51 PM
PastTense PastTense is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 6,838
Actually cable is getting competitors:
If you are talking about their TV offerings then competition from Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, etc.

If you are talking about internet competition is coming from wireless options:

1. Verizon just announced their 5 G home internet offering:
https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/11/1...ions-october-1

2. Companies like Space X and Oneweb are working on low-orbit internet:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...and-providers/
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wirel...adband-for-all

3. Google is working on Project Loon with balloons:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loon_(company)
  #29  
Old 09-13-2018, 03:21 PM
bump bump is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 15,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Textual Innuendo View Post
Oh, one I forgot - healthcare software. They all suck or are ridiculously expensive, and you have 2.5 choices: Cerner, Epic, or Mckesson. (okay, there's a few more tiny ones nobody uses)
What aspect of healthcare? Every operation seems to have its own specific platform- you have electronic health records, you have practice management systems, you have pharmacy systems and you have payment/accounting systems just to name the main ones I'm familiar with. And that's a problem in its own right- system integration is a huge concern for a lot of healthcare operations.
  #30  
Old 09-13-2018, 03:33 PM
Textual Innuendo Textual Innuendo is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
As far as cell service, what pent up demand that could be met by a new provider are you seeing?

It seems like some providers have moved to unlimited 4g networks. Is there demand for more mobile data?
The "unhappiness" in cell service is the products offered at the given prices. For the big 4 carriers (soon to be 3), a plan with a usable amount or fake "unlimited" data will cost you $80-$100 a month, no matter who you look at. More, there's not really substantial discounts for going down to more capped plans.

That's not the actual cost of service (particularly with the various hard and soft caps they put on the data service they provide), and there's basically no innovation in the space that offers anything really different. If there were actual competition, you would see a broader variety of plans at a broader variety of price points.
  #31  
Old 09-13-2018, 03:39 PM
Textual Innuendo Textual Innuendo is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by PastTense View Post
Actually cable is getting competitors:
If you are talking about their TV offerings then competition from Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, etc.

If you are talking about internet competition is coming from wireless options:
On cable, I was specifically thinking of cable internet, because yeah, on the TV side there's getting to be an embarrassment of riches.

But 50 million households in the US have only ONE ISP choice. 70% - 90% of households looking for 10mbps speed have only 1 or 2 choices (look in Figure 2 here).

Everyone hates Charter / Comcast / Cox, yet they are literally the only choice in most markets, and further, many states and municipalities have laws forbidding anyone else from offering any other choice to the people in those areas.

So sure, there's some long tail stuff like Verizon Fios and Google Loon available to .01% of the population, but 70% - 90% have no real choice.
  #32  
Old 09-13-2018, 03:50 PM
Trom Trom is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Chicago, IL
Posts: 1,516
Real estate, specifically Realtors.

5% to 6%+ fees on the price of a home is absurd.
  #33  
Old 09-13-2018, 05:39 PM
Textual Innuendo Textual Innuendo is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by bump View Post
What aspect of healthcare? Every operation seems to have its own specific platform- you have electronic health records, you have practice management systems, you have pharmacy systems and you have payment/accounting systems just to name the main ones I'm familiar with. And that's a problem in its own right- system integration is a huge concern for a lot of healthcare operations.
Yeah, good point - I was mostly thinking of EMR and clinical ssytems, but yes, generally they have to interact with a bunch of other systems, which will cost you more on a modular basis and increases friction and contributing to the awfulness of most of them.

But yet, part of their awfulness is the difficulty of integration, and the lock-in driven by that lock-in that makes you need to pony up for their poorly-coded additional modules to get full functionality.
  #34  
Old 09-14-2018, 12:11 AM
Mumberthax Mumberthax is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 197
Quote:
Originally Posted by manson1972 View Post
They already have that. It's called an IPhone or a Samsung Galaxy
Those are smartphones, not watches.

Rolex makes watches. Apple makes computers.
__________________
Sincerely,
Mumberthax
My pronouns are they/them. What are yours?
  #35  
Old 09-14-2018, 12:35 AM
Roderick Femm's Avatar
Roderick Femm Roderick Femm is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: On the cusp, also in SF
Posts: 6,525
Voting software. This is a huge market of thousands of US jurisdictions that are pretty much locked in to two or three vendors. There is research being done here in San Francisco (and other place) on sponsoring and developing open source voting software that would then be free to all US and foreign jurisdictions that want it. There are problems, including inertia, and getting a large enough tech population interested enough in it to test and monitor it for security, but it could be a huge breakthrough. Imagine, for example, if people could vote securely from their smart phones.

Re: luxury watches, that's pretty much a niche market and any revolution there would go pretty much unnoticed by the rest of us.
  #36  
Old 09-14-2018, 02:54 AM
Mijin's Avatar
Mijin Mijin is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Shanghai
Posts: 8,518
I don't think the OP is meaningful in its current form. All industries are vulnerable to a competitor with an innovative and effective product suddenly appearing, grabbing huge market share, and forcing others to adapt.

Is this what the OP is trying to get at: Which industries that right now appear mature, are likely to be shaken up soon, given the current direction of technological improvement?
I think that would be a clearer question.
  #37  
Old 09-14-2018, 03:56 AM
steatopygia's Avatar
steatopygia steatopygia is online now
Experimental FOC Test Pilot
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: North Idaho mostly
Posts: 1,515
The pharmaceutical industry. Think what a non-profit without shareholders could do.

Too late. Hospitals are starting their own drug company.

Don't get me started on EMRs.
  #38  
Old 09-14-2018, 07:31 AM
Textual Innuendo Textual Innuendo is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roderick Femm View Post
Voting software. This is a huge market of thousands of US jurisdictions that are pretty much locked in to two or three vendors.
Oh, god. As xkcd has poignantly pointed out, voting software, of ANY flavor, is a terrible idea.

Voting systems should be people voting on paper with controlled and auditable custody trails that leaves a permanent and re-countable record, that can be counted by machines AND people.

Anything else is madness, and just asking for vote hacking and nullification and other awful outcomes. No voting software + computing platform is ever going to be secure enough to be worth it, if we actually care about our voted outcomes.

And yes, I know the majority of our voting goes on on PROVEN unsecure machines running software with PROVEN vulnerabilities, that apparently nobody cares about. And it's horrifying and sickening, but I really think more / better software is not the answer if we ever want voting integrity in our voting systems.

Last edited by Textual Innuendo; 09-14-2018 at 07:33 AM.
  #39  
Old 09-14-2018, 08:47 AM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mijin View Post
I don't think the OP is meaningful in its current form. All industries are vulnerable to a competitor with an innovative and effective product suddenly appearing, grabbing huge market share, and forcing others to adapt.

Is this what the OP is trying to get at: Which industries that right now appear mature, are likely to be shaken up soon, given the current direction of technological improvement?
I think that would be a clearer question.
I guess my question is what industries are capable of providing much better goods and services either with existing technology or with minor investments, but right now are not incentivized because there is no competitive pressure to do so.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
  #40  
Old 09-15-2018, 09:27 AM
Pinmin Pinmin is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 161
Quote:
Originally Posted by Trom View Post
Real estate, specifically Realtors.

5% to 6%+ fees on the price of a home is absurd.
This is happening. Check out “door.com” as a prime example - flat fees for selling a house. After it’s appearance, I’ve been hearing ads on the radio for realtors who charge flat fees as well.
  #41  
Old 09-15-2018, 12:16 PM
Roderick Femm's Avatar
Roderick Femm Roderick Femm is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: On the cusp, also in SF
Posts: 6,525
Quote:
Originally Posted by Textual Innuendo View Post
Oh, god. As xkcd has poignantly pointed out, voting software, of ANY flavor, is a terrible idea.

Voting systems should be people voting on paper with controlled and auditable custody trails that leaves a permanent and re-countable record, that can be counted by machines AND people.

Anything else is madness, and just asking for vote hacking and nullification and other awful outcomes. No voting software + computing platform is ever going to be secure enough to be worth it, if we actually care about our voted outcomes.

And yes, I know the majority of our voting goes on on PROVEN unsecure machines running software with PROVEN vulnerabilities, that apparently nobody cares about. And it's horrifying and sickening, but I really think more / better software is not the answer if we ever want voting integrity in our voting systems.
Forgive me if I wasn't clear. Some software is always needed to count and tally votes from paper ballots, unless you are proposing to do it by hand. My jurisdiction has paper ballots and software.

/hijack
  #42  
Old 09-15-2018, 01:18 PM
Stranger On A Train Stranger On A Train is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: Manor Farm
Posts: 18,655
Quote:
Originally Posted by scr4 View Post
I think the textbook industry is ripe for major disruption, but I'm not sure what that would look like.
Freeware (or shareware) textbooks that are corrected by user feedback and are flexible enough to be used with different syllabuses, and most importanly, don’t cost a couple of hundred dollars of which the authors are only likely to see a couple percent in royalties.

Quote:
Originally Posted by filmstar-en View Post
The auto makers are not afraid of competition from itsy bitsy Tesla.
Car manufacturers have long known that battery electric vehicles are the lomg game; GM got into that business a couple of decades ago, only to discover that the battery technology and cost are not at a point of being workable as a large market commodity. This is arguably still the cass given that Tesla has yet to a tually produce their promised $35k vehicle, or be able to respond promptly to customer demand. But every major auto manufacturer is actively developing a line of electric vehicles using their existing manufacturing and supplier infrastructure that Tesla has been so challenged to develop to a scale suitable for mass production.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mumberthax View Post
I'd like to see a new player enter the luxury watch industry. The last new entrant there is Hublot, and it's more interested in being edgy than it is at actually innovating anything.

I'd love to see an American counterpart to Rolex or Patek. I mean 100% American-made, in-house calibers, high quality, and a reputation for excellence. That should really shake up the game. Sure, there are some American watch brands. I mean manufactories - and using imported movements doesn't count.
The luxury watch industry in a niche industry, and ‘disruption’ is generally more a matter of brand management than technical innovation. Sinn and Damasko are two of the most technically advanced mechanical luxury/tool watch bit they are practically unknown outside of the horological subculture because they aren’t featured in Bond movies or racing endorsements.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Textual Innuendo View Post
Oh, god. As xkcd has poignantly pointed out, voting software, of ANY flavor, is a terrible idea.

Voting systems should be people voting on paper with controlled and auditable custody trails that leaves a permanent and re-countable record, that can be counted by machines AND people.

Anything else is madness, and just asking for vote hacking and nullification and other awful outcomes. No voting software + computing platform is ever going to be secure enough to be worth it, if we actually care about our voted outcomes.

And yes, I know the majority of our voting goes on on PROVEN unsecure machines running software with PROVEN vulnerabilities, that apparently nobody cares about. And it's horrifying and sickening, but I really think more / better software is not the answer if we ever want voting integrity in our voting systems.
It is entirely feasible to create a voting architecute using the same secure public key architecture used in encrypted communications and financial transactions which is end-to-end traceable and could only be altered at the collection point or by fraudulent registration. Although paper records are not vulnerable to electronic tampering they are not ultimately secure from miscounting, local alteration, or misinterpretation as seen in the 2000 American presidential election. And secure electronic counting permits faster verification and identification of potential tampering versus hand counting purely anonymous ballots.

That current voting systems are vulnerable is an artifisct of using obsolete technology, but even then widescale tampering is difficult given the profusion of differnent systems. By all means, keep a paper trail of votes as you like, but secure voting using public encryption methodolgy is inarguably more traceable and less vulerable to local vote tampering, e.g. ballot stuffing or hypothetical fraudulent voters.

Stranger
  #43  
Old 09-15-2018, 03:21 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 20,269
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post

Car manufacturers have long known that battery electric vehicles are the lomg game; GM got into that business a couple of decades ago, only to discover that the battery technology and cost are not at a point of being workable as a large market commodity. This is arguably still the cass given that Tesla has yet to a tually produce their promised $35k vehicle, or be able to respond promptly to customer demand. But every major auto manufacturer is actively developing a line of electric vehicles using their existing manufacturing and supplier infrastructure that Tesla has been so challenged to develop to a scale suitable for mass production.
Stranger
I don't agree with that. There are several electric cars under 35k now. Nissan leaf, ford focus electric, Hyundai ioniq, Kia soul EV, etc. They don't have the 200-300 mile range of a tesla and are closer to 100 mile range. But they are still electric cars. In fact used electric cars are pretty darn cheap now. I've seen gently used Nissan leafs going for under 10k.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
  #44  
Old 09-15-2018, 04:30 PM
Gatopescado's Avatar
Gatopescado Gatopescado is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: on your last raw nerve
Posts: 20,110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
2. Tesla? Who the hell knows. With production delays and Musk apparently losing his fucking mind on camera who knows.
Laughed so hard I peed a little!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Batano View Post
Imagine if Walmart decides to open small clinics in their stores:...
They already do! Last "Dr." visit I went to was Walmart clinic, many years ago. I think it was a sinus infection.
  #45  
Old 09-17-2018, 01:18 PM
bump bump is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 15,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
The luxury watch industry in a niche industry, and ‘disruption’ is generally more a matter of brand management than technical innovation. Sinn and Damasko are two of the most technically advanced mechanical luxury/tool watch bit they are practically unknown outside of the horological subculture because they aren’t featured in Bond movies or racing endorsements.
Shoot, the entire concept of mechanical watches is the ultimate in status symbols. In practical terms, a quartz movement is much more accurate, more reliable, and drastically cheaper. But since they're not little insanely intricate mechanical machines you wear on your wrist, they're not the style of watch that is sought after by the people spending thousands of dollars on a watch.

In other words, your average $30 Timex keeps better time than your $1000 luxury mechanical watch, and you don't have to wind it either. So in one way of looking at it, the watch industry HAS seen the disruption, and what happened is that the arguably better technology ended up as the lower-mid level products, and the old-timey mechanical watch technology ended up as the high-end products, counter to the way most other products work.

I think the industry that might be very disrupted would be the power industry, if stuff like Tesla's Solar Roof take widespread hold, or someone comes up with a better way to store off-hour energy than we currently do. I suspect the economics of centralized power generation and distribution would change dramatically if everyone's roof could supply half (or more) of their electrical power needs.
  #46  
Old 09-17-2018, 02:06 PM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
Domo Arigato Mister Moderato
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: On the run with Kilroy
Posts: 21,576
Quote:
Originally Posted by PastTense View Post
The problem with healthcare and healthcare insurance are the massive amounts of government regulation surrounding them. Without changes in them it is hard to see what any business could do to make a big impact in those areas.
Yeah, sure sucks that my medicine is, um, medicine.

It's pretty well-established that, barring regulation, companies will compete to sell chalky powder and call it helpful. Talk a look at the 'food supplement' industry for many, many examples.
  #47  
Old 09-17-2018, 05:21 PM
Tim@T-Bonham.net Tim@T-Bonham.net is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Minneapolis, MN
Posts: 14,415
Quote:
Originally Posted by scr4 View Post
I think the textbook industry is ripe for major disruption, but I'm not sure what that would look like.
There is an 'open source' textbook movement.

I can see the attraction of that.
I have a friend who is about to have his 6th book published. He's spent over 2 years on it, and he has about 2 dozen other chapter authors whose work he edits. And he has to spend his own money going to academic conferences to promote the book. But he gets almost no economic payback for this. The book will list at $287 per copy. But his quarterly checks from the publisher are always less than $100, sometimes less than $10. I don't see why he does it. Doesn't make sense, economically.

But the open source movement is greatly opposed by textbook publishers, printers, colleges (which operate profitable college bookstores), etc. And the biggest opposition comes from the academic certification groups, and tenure-granting committees. They will only give credit for physical books, published by one of a handful of 'recognized' academic publishers. So a real stranglehold on textbooks.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:38 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017