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  #51  
Old 10-27-2014, 02:59 PM
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a note about shallow graves...


For the sake of this post lets assume that both Adnan and Jay buried the body in Leakin Park. Think about that scene for a moment. There was a snowstorm that night; I wonder if it had started snowing yet. I don't know Baltimore but I've got to guess that ground was pretty hard to turn over. All the same you'd think that at one point one of them would have thought "Lets spend a little more time here and dig this hole deeper." That would have been time well invested considering the consequences.

It makes you wonder if they had seen the movie Shallow Grave (1994).

Also, I remember reading somewhere just how hard and time consuming digging a proper grave by hand is. When Jay said in the police interview they spent 20 -25 minutes digging, each of them doing equal work w/ two shovels I think that sounds about right. I suspect the detectives knew that as well. I doubt many city kids could accurately guess how long it would take to dig a person-sized hole six inches deep in hard ground in the dark.

Chilling to think about.
  #52  
Old 10-28-2014, 01:17 AM
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I find it strange that people are using the "Adnan seems too casual about this" as some kind of evidence of guilt.
Being a convicted killer in prison has been his everyday for yeeeears at this point. I'm sure his righteous indignation has faded.

The mystery of the current status of Jay has irked me since the beginning. You got to at least give a hint.

Last edited by Push You Down; 10-28-2014 at 01:19 AM.
  #53  
Old 10-28-2014, 02:12 PM
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I find it strange that people are using the "Adnan seems too casual about this" as some kind of evidence of guilt.
Being a convicted killer in prison has been his everyday for yeeeears at this point. I'm sure his righteous indignation has faded.

The mystery of the current status of Jay has irked me since the beginning. You got to at least give a hint.
I posted Jay's whereabouts earlier in the thread if you care to reveal the spoiler.

As far as him being casual about the whole thing, it's less that he is too casual, and more than he is completely unengaged with the whole process or trying to remember "what happened". I get that it is hard to be really angry for 15 years. However, that doesn't mean you are reluctant to say someone framed you, or to say you unequivocally didn't do something.
  #54  
Old 10-29-2014, 08:45 PM
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For those of you who want something to listen to in between Serial episodes- there was a podcast on Strangers that aired a while back that I recently discovered. It's also about a high school boy wrongly accused - in this case there is no doubt (not a spoiler, declared immediately in podcast). It's more about his coping with prison time but there's time spent on the court case itself that is hard to believe and chilling. It's here: Franky Carillo:Life
  #55  
Old 10-29-2014, 10:05 PM
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I find it strange that people are using the "Adnan seems too casual about this" as some kind of evidence of guilt.
Being a convicted killer in prison has been his everyday for yeeeears at this point. I'm sure his righteous indignation has faded.

The mystery of the current status of Jay has irked me since the beginning. You got to at least give a hint.
I haven't read any spoilers, and just based on what Serial has posted so far, I'm thinking that Jay was more complicit in this murder than he is letting on. I think Adnan and Jay were in this together, and Jay turned on him.
  #56  
Old 10-30-2014, 03:24 PM
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I haven't read any spoilers, and just based on what Serial has posted so far, I'm thinking that Jay was more complicit in this murder than he is letting on. I think Adnan and Jay were in this together, and Jay turned on him.
Yeah, that's my current feeling too. Adnan just didn't seem very convincing to me when he was explaining why he failed to call Hae. The evidence seems to be piling up that Adnan was with Jay the day that Hae died. Since the evidence indicates that Jay was an accomplice in Hae's murder, Adnan's presence with Jay on that day would point to him as being a part of the murder as well.

On the other hand, the state's case still has a lot of holes.
  #57  
Old 10-30-2014, 04:36 PM
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Yeah, that's my current feeling too. Adnan just didn't seem very convincing to me when he was explaining why he failed to call Hae. The evidence seems to be piling up that Adnan was with Jay the day that Hae died. Since the evidence indicates that Jay was an accomplice in Hae's murder, Adnan's presence with Jay on that day would point to him as being a part of the murder as well.

On the other hand, the state's case still has a lot of holes.
I still don't think I'm beyond a reasonable doubt, but I'm more convinced that Adnan is guilty after the last episode. But, I feel like they sort of took us for a ride a bit by putting the best evidence that he is innocent early in the series, and holding back the "Oh, yeah, turns out there is good reason to think this guy is guilty," stuff for the final episodes.
  #58  
Old 10-30-2014, 08:17 PM
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After the latest episode I feel like they thought this case was going to be more mysterious than its turned out to be. She is kind of forcing things to appear more murky than they actually are for effect IMHO. Still worth listening to in the car on the way home from work.
  #59  
Old 10-30-2014, 08:33 PM
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Just listened to the latest 'cast...


Agreed it is getting really murky at this point. can't help but think that they are basing Adman's conviction on the timeline and testimony of Jay, and we have not heard from Jay in the present day at all...where is he? The rest of the witnesses were either high or in the dark most of the time during the actual events and it sounds like many of them were interviewed AFTER Adman was arrested. Then everyone comes out of the woodwork and remembers??kinda fishy.

We also haven't heard from Hae's family, except that her brother called Adman and upset him at Cathy's house>>> then nothing more about him that I could piece together.

Finally, are we thinking next week's experts could be forensics? It's still interesting, but the absence of Jay is glaring.
  #60  
Old 10-30-2014, 10:07 PM
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I'd also like to add that all these people who are supposed to be in their early 30s talk and sound like high school kids. Lots of giggling and "like"s. Also sounded like the narrator is getting a bit horny for the guy.
  #61  
Old 10-30-2014, 10:54 PM
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I still don't think I'm beyond a reasonable doubt, but I'm more convinced that Adnan is guilty after the last episode. But, I feel like they sort of took us for a ride a bit by putting the best evidence that he is innocent early in the series, and holding back the "Oh, yeah, turns out there is good reason to think this guy is guilty," stuff for the final episodes.
What reasonable doubts do you have regarding his guilt? I can see thinking Jay's story being suspect, but the basic framework is fairly unimpeachable IMO.
  #62  
Old 10-31-2014, 06:03 AM
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Timeline


If we are thinking that Adnan is looking really guilty, it seems to me it is mainly because he is so unclear about what happened in that day and has poor explanations when asked. I have to remind myself that this is all based on a timeline and account of events put forth by JAY. We have no real evidence that indeed Hae was killed in this way except that Jay said so. Then we have all these folks that remembered something through the purple haze, after Adnan was arrested. It occurs to me that perhaps the reason Adnan is so fuzzy about details is because HE WASN'T THERE. If he wasn't there, he can't know.

I think it's interesting that he got a bit testy with Sarah when she mentioned that she thought he was a nice guy...he's heard that for 15 years, but in his thinking, this has gotten him no where. He would like for someone-anyone to have something concrete to put an end to speculation and no matter whether he's nice or not, prove he didn't do it.
  #63  
Old 10-31-2014, 07:43 AM
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What reasonable doubts do you have regarding his guilt? I can see thinking Jay's story being suspect, but the basic framework is fairly unimpeachable IMO.
Again, I do think he more than likely did do it, or was at least critically involved with Jay and they did it together. I'd go with 75% sure that he did it, based on what has been discussed in the show so far. I have purposely not looked up any additional information about the case.

But, these are high school kids that managed to pull this off and there doesn't seem to be any forensic evidence linking them to this murder (unless we haven't heard about it yet). Intimate murder by strangling and there is nothing physical linking him to the crime. Nobody saw anything odd in that parking lot. These are not calculated killers no matter what happened, but stupid kids.

There doesn't seem to be a clear motive; he was a little creepy and possessive, but so was I and a lot of boys at that age. Not seeing why he did it.

And he is largely convicted because of Jay's story. Jay's story seems to have a lot of truth to it, but there is no doubt in my mind that Jay's story is also partially bullshit.

In all likelihood, he got very lucky with the physical evidence, and was more hurt by the breakup than he let on. But, I'm not sure I'd convict. I definitely want to hear more of, or from, Jay. Why did he decide to finger his friend after helping him along the way (if that is what really happened)? Did the host say that she attempted to talk to him or not? Can't remember. Also, based solely on what Jay admits that he did do for his friend, isn't he an accessory to murder?

Unless next weeks episode builds on the trend of showing the worst evidence for Adnan last, I'm still just strongly leaning guilty, as I have for most of the series, but not above reasonable doubt threshold.

Last edited by Fiveyearlurker; 10-31-2014 at 07:44 AM.
  #64  
Old 10-31-2014, 12:19 PM
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I want to know whether Adnan's cellphone shows up on the Leakin Park cell tower on other days.

Right now, the strongest non-testimonial evidence that links him to the crime is that his phone was within cell range of the burial site on the day she went missing. But is there somewhere else he could have been that would still ping that tower? Quite possibly.

I also want to know whether they can actually tell if the call that supposedly went to Adnan's friend, the one that supports the claim that Adnan was with his phone, actually connected and involved a conversation. Because that girl's account of things indicates that she didn't talk to them on this day. She talked to them on some day afterward, when Jay had his porn video shop job.

I'm incredibly unconvinced by any of Cathy's testimonial evidence about how either of them might have been acting at her house. That's the kind of memory that's subject to lots of changes once he gets arrested. A vague memory of mundane uneasiness at the stranger stoner kid in her living room easily morphs into something sinister weeks later.

I'm also having a lot of trouble reconciling the necessary intersection of "Adnan is a masterfully manipulative sociopath, capable of playing the convincing role of innocence for 15 years" with "Adnan is a dumb high school kid who buys a cell phone a few days before committing murder, then carries it with him when he dumps the body". Sure, the kind of social intelligence required to pull off the first doesn't necessarily equate to not making boneheaded moves like this, but it's hard to fit it all together.

I feel like there's a lot of evidence that sort of is consistent with guilt, but really doesn't prove anything. The fact that he didn't call Hae's phone/pager after her death is certainly fishy, but it really doesn't prove anything. His explanation, that he heard news through the grapevine, isn't unreasonable. And if he's innocent, and he thinks that she did run off, well. She's got his cell number. He gave it to her the night before. She can call when she's ready.
  #65  
Old 10-31-2014, 03:40 PM
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If we are thinking that Adnan is looking really guilty, it seems to me it is mainly because he is so unclear about what happened in that day and has poor explanations when asked. I have to remind myself that this is all based on a timeline and account of events put forth by JAY.
Yes and no. Jay's account of what happened is what helps us tie all the other unimpeachable evidence together into a cohesive story. A story that is not really necessary for conviction, but does help create a more understandable narrative.

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We have no real evidence that indeed Hae was killed in this way except that Jay said so.
What do you mean? We know the approximate time she disappeared, how she was killed, where her body was, etc. Jay's testimony only bolstered what we know based on outside info.

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Then we have all these folks that remembered something through the purple haze, after Adnan was arrested.
It's hard to tell how much of their memory is ex post facto, but I don't think you can say all of them are lying or mistaken. This a problem in most cases w/o much physical evidence of a crime. Memories are mutable and shaky, but the idea that multiple people had memory failure in a way that implicates Adnan is far fetched.

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It occurs to me that perhaps the reason Adnan is so fuzzy about details is because HE WASN'T THERE. If he wasn't there, he can't know.
This makes no sense. Of course he can remember where he was even if he was not at the crime scene and had nothing to do with it. No one has asked him what happened to Hae. They've asked where HE was. How can he not have ANY idea given the multiple significant things that happened that day? Especially given he seems to remember everything BUT where he was during the crucial time period. He remembers calling Hae to give him his number the night before. He remembers it's Stephanie's birthday. He remembers loaning his car to Jay. He remembers getting a call from Hae's family and a detective. Yet, he doesn't remember ANY other details about the day?

This is part of why I don't think there is a reasonable doubt here. Let's look at what essentially had to happen for Adnan to be completely innocent.

Unlucky Coincidence #1: He calls Hae three times the night before she disappears, then never bothers to call her again.

Yes, he could have gotten updates from her friends, but there were 5 days that passed between when she disappeared and when they next had school during which he didn't reach out. There is also weird conflict of him being so insistent on speaking to her the day before that he calls her 3 times (twice after midnight) just to giver her his cell number that he could have given her the next day, yet perfectly fine waiting for updates on her completely falling off the planet from her friends during class.

UC #2: Police happen to find a really damaging note Hae wrote to him about being possessive and not getting over the breakup. A note on which he unfortunately happens to write about killing.

UC #3: He talks to Stephanie, and realizes that day, the day Hae ends up disappearing, how much she wants and expects a present from Jay.

UC #4: He contacts Jay that day, and not only is Jay at home to answer the phone, but Jay has also not gotten Stephanie a present. Additionally, Jay also has no means of getting one for some reason. Why Jay couldn't have asked Jen, who had a car and free time is not explained. Given Adnan says they were casual friends, why wouldn't Jay ask his best/better friend Jen for a ride since she gives him a ride later that day?

UC #5: He offers to loan Jay his car and cell phone in order for him to get Stephanie a present on the same day Jay happens to kill or be involved with a murder somehow.

Then Adnan goes about his day: he finishes school that day, goes to the library, then to track practice, then gets picked up by Jay. He is completely unaware anything criminal has gone on.

UC #4: Jay, sometime before 3:15, abducts and/or kills Hae. How he manages to do this is in question given she has no reason or desire to be alone with Jay, but it somehow happens. Additionally, he completes this act during the narrow time window he has Adnan's car and phone. He also either buys a present during this time, or tells Adnan he bought a present during this time.

UC #5: Jay, likely with the help of an unknown accomplice, manages to move Adnan's car and Hae's body. Then he goes back to pick up Adnan at practice.

UC #6: Jay concocts this idea to frame Adnan that afternoon. He tells Jenn Adnan killed Hae that day. He does this without knowing whether Adnan had a rock solid alibi; something he should probably assume to be the case given he was participating in group activities in a public place during the time Jay is off killing Hae.

UC #7: During the time Jay has his phone, Jay accidentally butt dials a friend of Adnan's, stays on the phone for 2 minutes, but doesn't converse with anyone on the other end.

UC #8: Adnan goes to smoke weed that evening with Jay and others as usual. For some reason, others there note his odd behavior. He also ends up getting a call from the cops about Hae but he thinks it's no big deal despite the fact that her parents are so worried that they contact the police.

UC #9: Later that day, both Jay and Adnan are together near Leakin Park where Hae is/will be buried. We know this because of the cell records. We also know Hae was likely buried that day because there was an ice storm the following 2 days. So Jay commits the crime, buries Hae, then take Adnan back to the scene later that evening unbeknownst to Adnan.

There is more but I will stop there. Do you honestly think ALL or even most of those things make more sense than Adnan killing her?
  #66  
Old 10-31-2014, 03:59 PM
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Things I've learned from Serial:

If you're going to murder your ex-girlfriend, don't ask your stoner friend to help. Just do it by yourself.

When burying the body in Leakin Park, dig the grave deeper than six inches and a bit further into the woods. The body could stay hidden for ages.

Don't make a bunch of pointless phonecalls to people, that allow the location of your cell phone to be traced.

Also, don't kill your ex-girlfriend. Now she's dead, you're in prison, and a bunch of people's lives are messed up. No one benefits and you've caused a ton of meaningless destruction and self-destruction. If a girl breaks up with you, just get over it and get on with your life.
  #67  
Old 10-31-2014, 05:14 PM
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Like I said before, there is no mystery here with regards to Adnan. He did it. Everything so far reinforces that fact. It's kind of baffling to me how anyone could possibly think otherwise with all the information that's been presented so far.

The only "mystery" left is exactly how involved Jay was in the actual killing. I'm thinking Jay cut a deal of some sort and that's the only reason he wasn't locked up with Adnan.
  #68  
Old 10-31-2014, 07:19 PM
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Like I said before, there is no mystery here with regards to Adnan. He did it. Everything so far reinforces that fact. It's kind of baffling to me how anyone could possibly think otherwise with all the information that's been presented so far.

The only "mystery" left is exactly how involved Jay was in the actual killing. I'm thinking Jay cut a deal of some sort and that's the only reason he wasn't locked up with Adnan.
I agree. Does anyone know how many episodes there are? I keep thinking they're going to reveal something that changes this story, but no.
  #69  
Old 10-31-2014, 11:09 PM
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I agree. Does anyone know how many episodes there are? I keep thinking they're going to reveal something that changes this story, but no.
The rumor is there will be 12 or 13 episodes, but the story seems to be evolving as we speak, so maybe there will be more.
  #70  
Old 11-02-2014, 07:36 AM
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Brickbacon sounds like an investigator.


So much thought is going into the posts. I'm hoping there is more information to come. I keep throwing out other possibilities because everything they have given us so far makes Adnan look guilty, and I can't help but think it shouldn't be that easy. There has to be more to this for them to go on for six or seven more podcasts, but they end up convicting Adnan anyway....
  #71  
Old 11-02-2014, 07:41 AM
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I agree that Jay probably made a plea deal. What does everyone think the reason is we haven't heard from him yet? Is he in jail, gone and unable to be found? Dead? Or have they just not played his interview yet to keep us guessing?
  #72  
Old 11-02-2014, 10:25 AM
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The rumor is there will be 12 or 13 episodes, but the story seems to be evolving as we speak, so maybe there will be more.
Or less.

My money is on less. There's very little left to really explore or discuss. No idea how they could drag this out another 7 episodes let alone more.
  #73  
Old 11-04-2014, 05:52 AM
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Adnan's had plenty of time to accept his fate. That's why he can afford to be glib and wax phylosophically in his interviews over the prison phone. He sounds like he mentally distanced himself from the crime. Perhaps it's a coping mechanism. Afterall, 15 years is a long time come to terms with the fact you'll spend the rest of your life in prison. That's a long time to struggle with your conscience, if you had one.

It's my understanding that Jay did two years as an accessory to the crime. Not clear to me where he is now.
  #74  
Old 11-04-2014, 07:00 AM
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Adnan's had plenty of time to accept his fate. That's why he can afford to be glib and wax phylosophically in his interviews over the prison phone. He sounds like he mentally distanced himself from the crime. Perhaps it's a coping mechanism. Afterall, 15 years is a long time come to terms with the fact you'll spend the rest of your life in prison. That's a long time to struggle with your conscience, if you had one.

It's my understanding that Jay did two years as an accessory to the crime. Not clear to me where he is now.
SPOILER:
Jay didn't seve any jail time. Although you should probably spoiler this in the future if it hasn't been discussed on the podcast yet.
  #75  
Old 11-04-2014, 12:21 PM
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Spot on, brickbacon. Sarah Koenig dodges asking many pertinent questions. What I find gripping about the series is trying to figure out whether SK is just plain simple minded, thinks little of her listeners and is milking the case for the drama, or will yet pull a Columbo. Some of TAL's credibility is riding on this, IMHO.

For example, when she goes on such a giggly tangent on the streaker, a very real person who didn't deserve to be displayed in Ms Koenig's high-school diorama, you have to wonder if she is putting a show on.

Finally, asking people to incriminate a murderer who is very much still alive and may still get out of jail in time to settle scores. Is that a good idea?
  #76  
Old 11-04-2014, 12:39 PM
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For example, when she goes on such a giggly tangent on the streaker, a very real person who didn't deserve to be displayed in Ms Koenig's high-school diorama, you have to wonder if she is putting a show on.

Finally, asking people to incriminate a murderer who is very much still alive and may still get out of jail in time to settle scores. Is that a good idea?
The voyeuristic aspect of the whole project is starting to bug me a bit. Adnan is one thing, he's basically asking for the attention, but it seems like everyone's personal life is up for grabs. I wonder how cool Hae would be about having her diary read out loud on the air, even if it is fifteen years after her death. Or how cool her family is with it.

The most interesting thing for me about the podcast at this point is, I guess, the epistemological side of it, just how hard or even impossible it is to put together a completely coherent narrative of exactly how the day of the murder went. A lot of it has to do with Jay's tendency to bullshit, obviously. Also, just with how people's memories work. Like the girl who claims Adnan was speaking to someone on the phone, sounding panicked, when he was high in her apartment. Adnan claims that her story doesn't hold up, since it leaves a third hypothetical person on the phone, who also knew about the murder, and that it would make more sense for him to have that conversation with Jay. I think it's entirely possible that he was speaking with Jay, and the girl misremembers it as a phonecall. Especially since everyone was apparently smoking it up at the time. That probably doesn't help with any kind of exact recollection of events.
  #77  
Old 11-06-2014, 01:26 PM
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Has anyone else listened to Episode 7: The Opposite of the Prosecution yet? Koenig talks with Deirdre Enright, the head investigator of The Innocence Project, and Enright seems to find that it's a case that could be pursued. I thought it was an interesting episode, especially after last week making it seem more like Adnan was guilty, and this episode making it seem more possible that he's innocent. I've wavered back and forth on whether I think Adnan was actually the murderer, but from everything it seems like the case against him wasn't strong.

I can't wait until the next episode, because it sounds like there will be more about Jay then, though I don't know if she's talking to Jay or not.
  #78  
Old 11-06-2014, 02:19 PM
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The teaser for next week has me very excited (re: Jay).

There's a meta podcast from Slate called The Serial Spoiler podcast where they discuss each episode and talk about how they'r feeling about the case as it progresses (much like this thread). They make a lot of good points about the difference between a story written to be a mystery and real life. How we're listening to it as a bit of a mystery and there are storytelling devices being used to help that - but at the same time it's actual reporting and it's constrained by the facts of the case.

For example they talk about how in a mystery story the author may put a red herring in to fool readers a bit, but in real life there aren't any red herrings. Things are either important or they're not - but she's using some of these non-important bits to help the story along.

I think the tell on whether or not something matters is whether or not she uses their real name. If the name is changed or not mentioned, you can assume it's not going to end up being very important.
  #79  
Old 11-06-2014, 04:42 PM
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Has anyone else listened to Episode 7: The Opposite of the Prosecution yet? Koenig talks with Deirdre Enright, the head investigator of The Innocence Project, and Enright seems to find that it's a case that could be pursued. I thought it was an interesting episode, especially after last week making it seem more like Adnan was guilty, and this episode making it seem more possible that he's innocent. I've wavered back and forth on whether I think Adnan was actually the murderer, but from everything it seems like the case against him wasn't strong.
Just listened to that one. That lawyer and her team articulated some what I've been feeling, that the prosecution's case just wasn't fully there. His guilt doesn't feel proven to me.

I'm still where I was a couple of weeks ago. The motive doesn't work for me and the timeline doesn't work for me. I've not delved deep or tried hard to make it work or to come up with an alternate timeline that might be more convincing. I am looking forward to next week.
  #80  
Old 11-06-2014, 07:38 PM
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Enright did make some interesting points. The big one for me, I think, was that it's just too unlikely that Adnan is a calculating sociopath, because they're so rare. Most people are either innocent or stupid.

Also, that if someone is innocent, they're not helpful. If they really weren't involved, they have nothing to give you crack the case, pretty much by definition. Adnan not remembering the day of the murder, and being unable to explain odd things like the Nisha call, is just normal. It's not proof of anything.

I was never really on board with the idea that getting a call from the police about Hae being missing would make that day important to him, and because of that he would somehow recall the rest of the day. I once got a phone call one evening informing me that my girlfriend was in the hospital in a possibly bad condition (it actually turned out to be nothing serious, so don't worry). Yeah, I remember that phone call. I also remember seeing her after I rushed to the hospital. However, that is literally everything I remember about that day. I guess I was probably at work. At this point, I'm not even sure what day of the week it was. If anything, an event like that might overshadow everything else and make the rest of the day seem like more of a blur. Of course, I was never accused later of poisoning her tea or anything, but if I had been, I might not have been very helpful in accounting for my whereabouts.

One thing that Enright didn't mention at all, though, unless I missed it, was Jay's story, which I found a bit strange, since it's still very much the key to the case. Sure, you can speculate about serial killers or nutjobs with histories of murdering Asian women. But why would that kind of random killer be in cahoots with Jay?

So, yeah, looking forward to next week.
  #81  
Old 11-06-2014, 10:18 PM
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Enright did make some interesting points. The big one for me, I think, was that it's just too unlikely that Adnan is a calculating sociopath, because they're so rare. Most people are either innocent or stupid.
Her opinion does have some weight given her background, but this is a clear example of the excluded middle fallacy. Adnan, or anyone else in a similar situation for that matter, doesn't have to either be innocent or stupid. He also doesn't have to be a charming sociopath to be committed to a lie. Lots of guilty people lie too, and their temperament and disposition has little to do with anything. They're essentially orthogonal issues that SK seems to have conflated. It's understandable in the sense that we naturally think charming and sociable people won't commit anti-social acts like murder, but that is just something we tell ourselves.

Just look at the baseball steroids scandal. Obviously the stakes are lower, but it is very instructive to see all these guys, some charming and sociable (eg. Ryan Braun) and some prickly and distant (eg. Alex Rodriguez), publicly lying about their cheating. It just shows how convincing liars can be generally nice and charming people, and they can be jerks. The two issues aren't related. More importantly, you don't need to be a diagnosed sociopath to lie about your transgressions.

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Also, that if someone is innocent, they're not helpful. If they really weren't involved, they have nothing to give you crack the case, pretty much by definition.
Well, no. Again, her example was stupid. A truly innocent person can help crack a case in any number of ways. Of course they cannot tell you specifics about a crime they didn't commit, but they can tell you what they were doing and help you dredge up exculpatory evidence.

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Adnan not remembering the day of the murder, and being unable to explain odd things like the Nisha call, is just normal. It's not proof of anything.
It's not necessarily proof, it's evidence. The strength of that evidence is based on the entirety of the case presented. Him not being able to explain basic facts and seemingly inculpatory evidence presented in the case is suspicious a the very least. When coupled with all the other evidence, it is fairly damning.

More importantly, you are accepting as a predicate that he actually doesn't remember that day. I sincerely doubt that is the case.

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I was never really on board with the idea that getting a call from the police about Hae being missing would make that day important to him, and because of that he would somehow recall the rest of the day.
This is just nonsensical for a few reasons:

1. He remembers the early part of the day. Including fairly insignificant things like talking to Stephanie about Jay. He remembers the whole process of calling Jay, lending him his car, etc. He remembers what he did right after school (eg. missing the ride with Hae). Then a complete blank from around 2:30-6:30.

2. There were 3 calls he received regarding her disappearance. First from (IIRC) Hae's brother, and then from the detective. There is also speculation someone else called him giving him a heads up about the detective. He completely blows off Hae's family, telling them to ask Don. When the detective calls, he tells them he was planning to get a ride with her. The obvious inference here is that he was asked THAT day in REAL time essentially what he did that day as it relates to Hae. This wasn't something he only had to piece together weeks after the fact. He knew it was something people were asking about and interested in at the time.

3. Further complicating the above is his behavior after the call. If he is completely innocent, you'd think he would comment on the absurdity or craziness of the situation unfolding before him to the other people present when he receives the calls. Don't you think he would say something like, "hey Jay, you remember Hae? Her brother and the cops called me cause she disappeared. Crazy, huh?". Instead he says nothing. Instead, people testify he says nothing substantive, starts acting strange, leaves, then sits in his car with Jay for a while.

4. He weakly claims he was essentially in a public place interacting with dozens of people. Aside from Asia, whose testimony is problematic, no one has backed his account. Why? More importantly though, this guy shows basically zero effort to bolster his alibi even though his life is at stake. It's one thing for people to pontificate how they cannot remember what they did 6 weeks ago on some random day, or how they can't remember everything about the day something significant happened to them. That is somewhat understandable. I bet if you knew the difference between freedom and spending your life in prison was providing a solid alibi, you would be a little more proactive about racking your brain and looking to others for support your claims. He doesn't even have to only rely on people. He could have asked to look at email logs, etc.

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But why would that kind of random killer be in cahoots with Jay?
They wouldn't.
  #82  
Old 11-07-2014, 12:11 AM
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I'm not convinced Adnan is innocent, but I AM surprised he was convicted - moreso after this episode. I thought the idea was that you had to be 100% sure the person is guilty in order to convict them. There are so many holes in the case. Although did they ever address the call that Adnan received around the time of Hae's death that placed him in or near Leakin Park?
  #83  
Old 11-07-2014, 07:15 AM
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What brickbacon says. 100X. 1000X.

I know I sound like a broken record here but I can't wrap my head around how so many folks listening to this podcast can even have a shred of doubt that Adnan killed Hae. Sure, there are tiny pieces of the prosecutions narrative that, on their own, don't 100% damn Adnan, but when viewed together there is not doubt.

IMHO the only reason the Adnan narrative doesn't hit the target 100/100 shots fired is because the shots that are missing are missing because Jay was an accomplice and if Adnan were to point that out he would admit his own guilt in the process. With all the details that Jay brought to the cops he was, at a minimum, there when Hae was killed, at worst he killed Hae himself while Adnan was there.

As an aside, I'll say that SK sounds like she is forming a real crush on Adnan. It's really bizarre to hear it developing.

Last edited by Cubsfan; 11-07-2014 at 07:16 AM.
  #84  
Old 11-07-2014, 11:22 AM
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I was never really on board with the idea that getting a call from the police about Hae being missing would make that day important to him, and because of that he would somehow recall the rest of the day. I once got a phone call one evening informing me that my girlfriend was in the hospital in a possibly bad condition (it actually turned out to be nothing serious, so don't worry). Yeah, I remember that phone call. I also remember seeing her after I rushed to the hospital. However, that is literally everything I remember about that day. I guess I was probably at work. At this point, I'm not even sure what day of the week it was. If anything, an event like that might overshadow everything else and make the rest of the day seem like more of a blur. Of course, I was never accused later of poisoning her tea or anything, but if I had been, I might not have been very helpful in accounting for my whereabouts.
But, an added wrinkle is that in this case compared to your example, is that Adnan was being contacted about an ex girlfriend being missing. If I got a call from the cops about my ex girlfriend being missing, even if I have nothing to do with it, I would probably not only make sure to remember where I was all that day, I would write it all down to make sure that I had my timeline figured out just in case I'm a suspect at some point.

I guess you could claim that her going missing and the cops being involved didn't set off any alarms for him if he just thought she ran away from home?

But, yeah, despite the innocence project guys, I still think he did it in cahoots with Jay. This episode didn't really present anything concrete to change that.
  #85  
Old 11-07-2014, 02:08 PM
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I'm not convinced Adnan is innocent, but I AM surprised he was convicted - moreso after this episode. I thought the idea was that you had to be 100% sure the person is guilty in order to convict them. There are so many holes in the case. Although did they ever address the call that Adnan received around the time of Hae's death that placed him in or near Leakin Park?
The standard isn't 100% certainty, but rather beyond a reasonable doubt. Note this is does not mean no doubt, or beyond any and every doubt. Possible doubts or doubts based purely on speculation are not reasonable doubts. Obviously opinions will vary on how to determine what is reasonable, but there are a few things I think people are not considering here:

1. A trial is not strictly a truth finding mission as much as it is a controlled debate presentation (for lack of a better word). The jury heard a cohesive story presented by the state that was devoid of many of these red herrings and side issues that make the podcast interesting.

2. The jury doesn't have to believe everything Jay or anyone else said to convict Adnan. They just have to look at the totality of the evidence and decide that a reasonable parsing of that information would remove any reasonable doubt of guilt. See this sample jury instruction:

Quote:
Another part of your job as jurors is to decide how credible or believable each
witness was. This is your job, not mine. It is up to you to decide if a witnessís testimony
was believable, and how much weight you think it deserves. You are free to believe
everything that a witness said, or only part of it, or none of it at all. But you should act
reasonably and carefully in making these decisions.
There is simply no evidence that the jury bought everything Jay said. We however can reasonably infer that they didn't envision any plausible scenario in which Adnan didn't kill Hae. Given they only deliberated for 2 hours, I think they didn't have much debate.

Holes aside, I just don't see HOW all of this could happen if Adnan is innocent.
  #86  
Old 11-07-2014, 02:13 PM
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Have any of you smoked a lot of pot in your life? I only ask because these guys smoked a LOT of pot. They were typical teenage stoners and most of their stories start out with "I was high" or "we went here to smoke weed" etc.

If you spend your day in a cloud of THC, you're going to have some SERIOUS holes in your memory.

My cite is my bong.
  #87  
Old 11-07-2014, 06:23 PM
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I thought this last episode was great--mostly because it broke up the bubble of "this is Koenig's exploration" of a case.

I was really on the fence on the guilt/innocence thing until the end of the previous episode with the "I wanna shoot myself if another person says 'Adnan, I don't think you did it because you're too nice.'"
He wants someone to say "I know you didn't do it because of these facts."
That was such an honest moment--it feels off for a guilty person to say. I just can't buy into this weird "he's a sociopath manipulator" idea--that just doesn't hold water at all.
  #88  
Old 11-07-2014, 07:21 PM
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If I got a call from the cops about my ex girlfriend being missing, even if I have nothing to do with it, I would probably not only make sure to remember where I was all that day, I would write it all down to make sure that I had my timeline figured out just in case I'm a suspect at some point.
You know, I totally wouldn't. Because if I had nothing to do with it, it just wouldn't occur to me that I might become a suspect.
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If you spend your day in a cloud of THC, you're going to have some SERIOUS holes in your memory.
Very good point.
  #89  
Old 11-08-2014, 06:21 AM
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Fans of big brown eyes


Fans of big brown eyes would to well in going back and answering #65 point by point.

Plus, like brickbacon said, there's lots more. Eg: why did Adnan stop paging/calling Hae once she was dead? He's not that smart, whatever SK may tell us she believes.
  #90  
Old 11-08-2014, 09:24 AM
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What reasonable doubts do you have regarding his guilt? I can see thinking Jay's story being suspect, but the basic framework is fairly unimpeachable IMO.
!Jay =/= Adnan.

Jay, by his own admission, is the only one directly linked to the crime.

Unless I've missed some very specific piece of evidence, there is nothing directly linking Adnan to the body.
  #91  
Old 11-08-2014, 06:45 PM
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!Jay =/= Adnan.

Jay, by his own admission, is the only one directly linked to the crime.

Unless I've missed some very specific piece of evidence, there is nothing directly linking Adnan to the body.
I am not confusing Jay and Adnan. I was acknowledging the holes in Jay's story could lead some to believe that Adnan is innocent, but that the basic framework of Jay's account which implicates Adnan is backed by lots of other evidence.

Last edited by brickbacon; 11-08-2014 at 06:46 PM.
  #92  
Old 11-08-2014, 08:23 PM
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The most interesting thing for me about the podcast at this point is, I guess, the epistemological side of it, just how hard or even impossible it is to put together a completely coherent narrative of exactly how the day of the murder went.
For me, too.

I don't care whether Adnan did it or not. I don't think that's the point of this whole thing.
  #93  
Old 11-08-2014, 08:31 PM
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On the Slate Spoiler podcast where they talk about Serial, they do worry that this entire thing will just end up being some kind of meditation on the nature of truth.
  #94  
Old 11-09-2014, 07:11 AM
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I am not confusing Jay and Adnan. I was acknowledging the holes in Jay's story could lead some to believe that Adnan is innocent, but that the basic framework of Jay's account which implicates Adnan is backed by lots of other evidence.
Jay got a sweetheart deal and the evidence that backs his story is circumstantial at best. Also, cops excluded evidence found at the scene. So it's not entirely clear to me why Jay's story was given the weight of credibility it got.

I guess we might learn more next episode when we hear more from Jay, or about Jay. Really not sure what will motivate him to talk with SK. He'd be smart just to keep his mouth shut for the rest of his life.
  #95  
Old 11-09-2014, 03:08 PM
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Jay got a sweetheart deal and the evidence that backs his story is circumstantial at best. Also, cops excluded evidence found at the scene. So it's not entirely clear to me why Jay's story was given the weight of credibility it got.

I guess we might learn more next episode when we hear more from Jay, or about Jay. Really not sure what will motivate him to talk with SK. He'd be smart just to keep his mouth shut for the rest of his life.
Circumstantial evidence doesn't mean bad or lesser evidence. DNA evidence is mostly circumstantial. Pretending such evidence is less damaging either means you don't understand what the word means, or you don't appreciate how real trials work.

Yes, Jay got a good deal, but that is what happens in many trials.

What "excluded" evidence are you referring to? Cops cannot exclude exculpatory evidence.
  #96  
Old 11-10-2014, 07:00 AM
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Circumstantial evidence doesn't mean bad or lesser evidence. DNA evidence is mostly circumstantial. Pretending such evidence is less damaging either means you don't understand what the word means, or you don't appreciate how real trials work.
It's true, IANAL. Most of the people in this world aren't either. Perhaps some latitude is warranted, counselor, when a layman uses the term to mean that the evidence presented does not seem sufficiently compelling to convict.

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Yes, Jay got a good deal, but that is what happens in many trials.
I knew our justice system was flawed, but didn't realize to what extent.

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What "excluded" evidence are you referring to? Cops cannot exclude exculpatory evidence.
There were bottles and cans in the park next to where the body was burried. Though lab results did show evidence of human cells on the liquor bottle, cops either didn't collect the cans or go one more step to test the bottles for a dna match. There were fibers found on and under the body that were not tested either. Perhaps they had good reason not to do so? I'm not sure.

Finally, I understand the phone call log is used to construct the movements of the suspect(s) between roughtly 2 and 6pm that afternoon. But is there actual witness corroborated evidence that the phone was actually in Adnan's posession at the time?
  #97  
Old 11-11-2014, 12:42 AM
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On the Slate Spoiler podcast where they talk about Serial, they do worry that this entire thing will just end up being some kind of meditation on the nature of truth.
Maybe it'll be a meditation on the nature of bullshitting.

For instance, even if Adnan really is innocent, I still think he's bullshitting his way through the interviews. For instance, there's not a single bad word about Hae, or any hint from him that he was angry with her after the breakup. This could account for some of the strange answers he gives, like why he didn't try to call her after she disappeared. Let's say he's innocent, and the real answer is something like: "I was angry at her. She'd taken off without telling me, and I hated that. Besides, she was ticking me off in all sorts of other ways, too. I didn't want to talk to her. She could piss off for all I cared." Which might be understandable. But then he feels that he can't say that, because he has an idea in his head that expressing anger towards Hae will make him look guilty. So he gives a bullshit answer. And it's such an obvious bullshit answer that it backfires and just seems suspicious.

Well, or he killed her, obviously. Whatever.
  #98  
Old 11-11-2014, 04:41 AM
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I listened to the latest 'cast, and I'm really glad they brought in the law student team. I find it really interesting that after digesting the material in the case for a month, that they are all leaning toward NOT GUILTY. This has to account for something.

I said before that I thought that perhaps the reason Adnan has such poor recollection of that day is that he wasn't there. Then, the lawyer remarked to Sarah that in her experience, an "innocent client is the least helpful."

I wonder if we are being caught up in the small details and missing the big picture. It all feels wrong, and I know we aren't going on feelings here, but to stand back and look at all of it, remembering it was 15 years ago, I can't help but think there is an important piece of information that we just don't have. If the lawyers have that piece of information, and think he's innocent, I'm looking forward to hearing what makes them so sure. It must have to do with Jay. I'm looking forward to the next one.
  #99  
Old 11-13-2014, 10:42 AM
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I listened to the latest 'cast, and I'm really glad they brought in the law student team. I find it really interesting that after digesting the material in the case for a month, that they are all leaning toward NOT GUILTY. This has to account for something.

I said before that I thought that perhaps the reason Adnan has such poor recollection of that day is that he wasn't there. Then, the lawyer remarked to Sarah that in her experience, an "innocent client is the least helpful."

I wonder if we are being caught up in the small details and missing the big picture. It all feels wrong, and I know we aren't going on feelings here, but to stand back and look at all of it, remembering it was 15 years ago, I can't help but think there is an important piece of information that we just don't have. If the lawyers have that piece of information, and think he's innocent, I'm looking forward to hearing what makes them so sure. It must have to do with Jay. I'm looking forward to the next one.
It seemed strange to me that these law student team actually thinks he is "innocent." And they point to these tiny little things like certain evidence wasn't analyzed. Yea, so what? That would be a great point for why he should have been declared "not guilty" in court, but a small piece of missing evidence doesn't make the suspect innocent.
  #100  
Old 11-13-2014, 10:59 AM
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So who's finished listening to today's episode.

Swinging me the other way on Adnan's guilt. Maybe Jay's testimony is more solid than he's been given credit for.
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