Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-21-2019, 02:51 PM
Yankees 1996 Champs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 118

Why does Mitch McConnell get reelected in Kentucky?


Apparently, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was a moderate Republican in the 1980s and 1990s.

It is only until when Bill Frist left the Senate in 2006, when McConnell was elevated to Senate GOP Leader, in the Bush-Obama era, he became more partisan.

McConnell, 77, is up for reelection in 2020. He is running again.

He won the Senate seat in 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008 and 2014.

Why does McConnell get reelected so easily and can Ky. Democrats do about it?
  #2  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:13 PM
I Love Me, Vol. I's Avatar
I Love Me, Vol. I is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: SF
Posts: 4,652
For one thing, he's the Senate leader which is a very powerful position. Folks in Kentucky like having one of their Senators in charge of the Senate. Seeing that the good voters of KY are largely aligned with McConnell's politics, what possibly reason could they have to vote him out?
  #3  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:15 PM
Yankees 1996 Champs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by I Love Me, Vol. I View Post
For one thing, he's the Senate leader which is a very powerful position. Folks in Kentucky like having one of their Senators in charge of the Senate. Seeing that the good voters of KY are largely aligned with McConnell's politics, what possibly reason could they have to vote him out?
I think this is McConnell's last term anyway....he will be 78 next year.
  #4  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:25 PM
BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 21,806
I'm not so sure that it will be that easy and from what I've heard his unfavorable ratings in KY have been going up.

He does bring home some gravy to the state and that always help. The state leans quite red, so most of what he has to worry about is a primary challenge.
  #5  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:27 PM
Dinsdale is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: May 2000
Posts: 18,896
There is considerable value to having a powerful local politician - especially if his views are not vastly different from your own.
__________________
I used to be disgusted.
Now I try to be amused.
  #6  
Old 10-21-2019, 03:32 PM
Icarus's Avatar
Icarus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: In front of my PC, y tu?
Posts: 5,368
There has been lots of scholarly work analyzing the incumbent advantage effect.

This is one article that speaks to that effect. Once a Senator is elected, it is very likely that they will remain in office.

Add to that McConnell's leadership role and he will get a great deal of campaign money and PAC and party support from outside of Kentucky. That advantage aside, he's in a state that leans Republican. So the hurdles for a primary challenge are great, and the hurdles for a Democratic challenger are even greater.
__________________
Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge.
- C. Darwin
  #7  
Old 10-21-2019, 04:04 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 14,736
‘He’s an asshole but he’s our asshole’ Also, the challenger in 2014 ran a horrible campaign, refusing to admit that she voted for Barack Obama.

The only majority leader to get voted out recently was Tom Daschle in blood red South Dakota and that was unprecedented as George W Bush went there to campaign against him.
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42
  #8  
Old 10-21-2019, 04:10 PM
Yankees 1996 Champs is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 118
Quote:
Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
‘He’s an asshole but he’s our asshole’ Also, the challenger in 2014 ran a horrible campaign, refusing to admit that she voted for Barack Obama.

The only majority leader to get voted out recently was Tom Daschle in blood red South Dakota and that was unprecedented as George W Bush went there to campaign against him.
Not only that, Daschle has been a GOP target since the Clinton-Gore-Gephardt days.

John Thune ran against former Sen. Tim Johnson in 2002, and the GOP campaign strategist Karl Rove recruited Thune to run in '04 against Daschle and he won that seat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_U...n_South_Dakota

Ironically, I think once McConnell leaves, John Thune may be the next GOP Senate leader.
  #9  
Old 10-21-2019, 05:13 PM
RTFirefly is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
Posts: 39,893
Kentucky has a Cook PVI of R+15. That's not just safe; that's well beyond safe. By comparison, Texas is 'only' R+8, but Beto still couldn't beat Cruz.

What can Dems do about it? Not a damned thing. The only way McConnell is going to lose is if a primary challenger can convince Kentucky Republicans that Mitch isn't sufficiently conservative.
  #10  
Old 10-21-2019, 06:20 PM
dalej42 is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 14,736
Quote:
Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Kentucky has a Cook PVI of R+15. That's not just safe; that's well beyond safe. By comparison, Texas is 'only' R+8, but Beto still couldn't beat Cruz.

What can Dems do about it? Not a damned thing. The only way McConnell is going to lose is if a primary challenger can convince Kentucky Republicans that Mitch isn't sufficiently conservative.
And that’s why Mitch rammed the Kavanaugh nomination through. In earlier days, he would have advised Trump to pull the nomination and get another judge who is just as right wing confirmed. The 2018 Senate map was brutal for the Dems and McConnell knew that the House was already lost.
__________________
Twitter:@Stardales IG:@Dalej42
  #11  
Old 10-21-2019, 06:37 PM
Wesley Clark is online now
2018 Midterm Prediction Winner
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 22,514
As a democrat, I wish our leadership was as competent and efficient as McConnell.

However I don't think GOP voters really appreciate what he does. His negatives are really high among his own party.

Having said that, in the south anyone with an R next to their name can win and usually does.
__________________
Sometimes I doubt your commitment to sparkle motion
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 12:22 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017