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  #101  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:26 PM
The Stainless Steel Rat The Stainless Steel Rat is offline
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13 Precincts to go and Lamb leads by 585 votes. Tight.
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  #102  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:27 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Lamb lead down to 585 with 98% in.
  #103  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:28 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by galen ubal View Post
At what point is a recount possible/mandated?

edit - Looks like .5% https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Pennsylvania
Actually, apparently, I'm wrong:
Quote:
From CNN's Adam Levy and Gary Tuchman

Pennsylvania Secretary of State spokesperson Wanda Murren tells us because this is a district race and not statewide, there is no mandatory recount here.

Petitions are allowed, which require three voters in each precinct to make.

They would have five days after the county completes its computation.
From CNN.
  #104  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:33 PM
Bayard Bayard is offline
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CNN has Lamb up by 700.
  #105  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:35 PM
Happy Lendervedder Happy Lendervedder is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bayard View Post
CNN has Lamb up by 700.
With 12 precincts to go, according to politico
  #106  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:38 PM
Happy Lendervedder Happy Lendervedder is offline
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Cook Report's Dave wasserman is saying absentee ballots, yet uncounted, should give lamb a good boost. Most are from Allegheny County.
  #107  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:39 PM
Bayard Bayard is offline
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I'm sure this has been posted (I haven't been following this thread very close), but Trump won this district by 20 points, and the Republicans had to outspend the Dems 2:1 just to keep it close? Yikes. I hope this bodes well for November.
  #108  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:40 PM
DSeid DSeid is offline
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For the sake of argument assume Lamb wins very narrowly. I'm guessing GOP powers advise strongly against asking for a recount. It would only prolong keeping the roughly 20 point shift as a focus longer for no real gain. Focus on November.
  #109  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:50 PM
Bayard Bayard is offline
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Lamb up by 755 according to CNN. I guess I'll have to wait till tomorrow to find out, since I'm going to bed.
  #110  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:54 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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Here's a twitter thread from a PA lawyer with PA election experience.
Here's one salient bit:
Quote:
2. Again, to stress: this isn't the official count. This is an informal count. Absentees/provisionals have not been counted yet. Wait until Friday on the former; on the latter voters have a week to verify their eligibility still.
  #111  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:54 PM
kunilou kunilou is offline
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Saccone just picked up 660 votes in Washington County, bringing Lamb's lead down to 95 votes.
  #112  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:56 PM
Snowboarder Bo Snowboarder Bo is offline
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NY Times = "Conor Lamb leads by 0.0 percentage points, or 95 votes, over Rick Saccone with 99 percent of precincts fully reporting."
  #113  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:57 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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99.7% reporting:
Lamb: 109,945 votes
Saccone: 109,850 votes

Yeah, I think they need to count the absentee, judge the provisionals, and wait for the overseas votes to come in.
  #114  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:59 PM
pdhenry pdhenry is offline
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The Allegheny County absentees should be counted by midnight and are expected to go heavily for Lamb.
  #115  
Old 03-13-2018, 09:59 PM
GreysonCarlisle GreysonCarlisle is offline
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That's one tight race! Which is a damn shame, considering.
  #116  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:05 PM
Leaper Leaper is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreysonCarlisle View Post
That's one tight race! Which is a damn shame, considering.
Considering what?
  #117  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:06 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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Quote:
Igor Bobic
Allegheny County absentee ballots, via CNN:
Lamb - 1,930
Saccone - 1,178
Twitter
  #118  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:07 PM
EddyTeddyFreddy EddyTeddyFreddy is offline
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Right now (11:06 Eastern) It's Lamb 111,875 to Saccone 111,028 -- a gain from a few minutes before.
  #119  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:17 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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With .3% of the vote to go, I don't think Saccone can catch up.
  #120  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:26 PM
EddyTeddyFreddy EddyTeddyFreddy is offline
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The CNN talking heads are saying Saccone would need about 60 percent of the outstanding absentee ballots to pull out a win -- and in his most favorable counties with already counted votes he's only ahead by about 53 percent.
  #121  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:56 PM
pohjonen pohjonen is offline
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Saccone was just opining that his opponents hate Trump, they hate America, and by God, they even hate God.

Just because I was getting ready to put on my black robe and dance around my pentagram.
  #122  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:57 PM
GreysonCarlisle GreysonCarlisle is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaper View Post
Considering what?
Considering that Saccone is a psychopath.
  #123  
Old 03-13-2018, 10:59 PM
Happy Lendervedder Happy Lendervedder is offline
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Politico.com shows all precincts in and lamb up by 0.2.

113,211 - 112,532. Has anyone called it yet (I'm not by a tv)

Or will they wait on the provisionals to call it when it's so close?

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 03-13-2018 at 11:01 PM.
  #124  
Old 03-13-2018, 11:02 PM
Derleth Derleth is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
Politico.com shows all precincts in and lamb up by 0.2.

113,211 - 112,532. Has anyone called it yet (I'm not by a tv)

Or will they wait on the provisionals to call it when it's so close?
The New York Times says:
Quote:
Conor Lamb leads by 0.3 percentage points, or 579 votes, over Rick Saccone with 100 percent of precincts fully reporting.
This is likely to shift further to Lamb as the absentee ballots get counted.
  #125  
Old 03-13-2018, 11:02 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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I don't think anyone has called it yet*.
Quote:
Saccone tells supporters "we're not giving up" tonight
GOP candidate Rick Saccone, addressing supporters with the race still too close to call, said “We are still fighting the fight. It's not over yet."
He told them, “We’re not giving up” tonight.
Campaign consultant Bob Branstetter told CNN's Alexander Marquardt they won’t concede tonight.
He said even if Washington County absentees come in, plus other areas, there are still provisional ballots and military absentees. He said they are talking with legal counsel and weighing options, including petitions to recount.
From CNN.

Fair odds of him arranging a recount, I'd guess.

*Apparently the DCCC has called it for Lamb, and are being roundly mocked for doing so.

Yep, they did.

Last edited by galen ubal; 03-13-2018 at 11:04 PM.
  #126  
Old 03-13-2018, 11:18 PM
galen ubal galen ubal is online now
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Some scratch-pad figuring.
The absentee ballots from Greene, Washington, and Westmoreland counties have yet to be counted.
Per CNN, there's 3206 absentee ballots all up.
Assuming they break the same as the average in those three counties thus far*, that'll add 1796 votes for Saccone, and 1410 for Lamb.
That would put the vote totals at 114,328 for Saccone, and 114,521 for Lamb, giving the win to Lamb by 193 votes.
That said, I gather absentee votes tend to break left; I'm happy to be corrected if that's not the case.


*56% Saccone, 44% Lamb, in those three counties.

Last edited by galen ubal; 03-13-2018 at 11:18 PM.
  #127  
Old 03-13-2018, 11:30 PM
GIGObuster GIGObuster is online now
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From the live blog at DailyKos:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...blog-thread-12
Quote:
Tuesday, Mar 13, 2018 · 9:07:23 PM MST · David Nir

A few moments ago, Westmoreland County tallied its two remaining precincts, as well as its absentee ballots, shrinking Lamb’s lead from 847 votes to 579 votes. However, this was decidedly bad news for Saccone: There are now just 1,400 absentee ballots left to count (in Green and Washington Counties), per CNN, and he’d have to win them by a 70-30 margin. That’s almost impossible, seeing as Saccone won those two counties on Election Day by just a 54-46 spread.
  #128  
Old 03-14-2018, 03:40 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Lamb gave a victory speech somewhere around 12:45am EDT. Good for him!

Nothing new in the count overnight - still a 579 vote lead with less than 1400 absentee ballots to be counted.

If there were exactly 1400 absentee ballots out there, Saccone would have to win those by 990-410 to overcome Lamb's 579-vote margin. So assuming no tabulation errors, it's very very unlikely that Saccone can catch up.
  #129  
Old 03-14-2018, 05:39 AM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
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Unlikely, but not impossible. Can Saccone pay for a recount if he wants to? Maybe?
  #130  
Old 03-14-2018, 05:43 AM
Mithras Mithras is offline
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The Washington County absentee votes are in and increased Lamb's lead to 641.

A recount in PA is a pretty big long-shot. Aside from the absentee votes, we use machines with no paper trail. I'd imagine you're mostly making sure you didn't miss a machine in the count.
  #131  
Old 03-14-2018, 06:00 AM
DSeid DSeid is offline
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This is an interesting bit.
Quote:
Earlier in the evening, before it became clear the results would be so close, several Republican officials told CNN they were expecting Saccone to lose. Party officials were placing the blame squarely on Saccone's campaign but also on Trump's Saturday rally for the candidate, which some Republicans believe helped drive up Democratic turnout.
  #132  
Old 03-14-2018, 06:30 AM
N9IWP N9IWP is offline
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Lamb 113,720
Saccone 113,079

Absentee ballots still to be counted
(this was from CNN, Mithras has newer info)

Brian

Last edited by N9IWP; 03-14-2018 at 06:32 AM.
  #133  
Old 03-14-2018, 06:39 AM
Morgenstern Morgenstern is offline
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I can see trump's next tweet.

Knew that loser would lose. Total loser. He should have listened to me when I offered to help. Sad.





(Assuming of course, the Saccone takes 2nd place.)
  #134  
Old 03-14-2018, 06:55 AM
DragonAsh DragonAsh is offline
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Am I correct in assuming that Trump's sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA?
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  #135  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:08 AM
wolfman wolfman is offline
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Originally Posted by DragonAsh View Post
Am I correct in assuming that Trump's sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA?
I was thinking that, but I think once again his lack of awareness hurt his cause again, as it forced the rest of the GOP as a unified entity to come out on the record against doing anything to help steel.
  #136  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:12 AM
Cardigan Cardigan is offline
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Originally Posted by DragonAsh View Post
Am I correct in assuming that Trump's sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA?
Clearly the timing of the tariff announcement was no coincidence.
  #137  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:15 AM
DCnDC DCnDC is offline
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Can't help but wonder what bullshit the GOP is going to come up with to steal this one like they did with that bullshit in Virginia.
  #138  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:16 AM
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We stayed up past our bedtimes following the election results. Hoping for a Lambslide, but a win is a win.
  #139  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:24 AM
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I know it's petty, but I so want Lamb to thank Donald Trump for his victory.
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  #140  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:29 AM
Northern Piper Northern Piper is offline
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Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
Unlikely, but not impossible. Can Saccone pay for a recount if he wants to? Maybe?


Is there really any point to a recount for a seat that won't exist in the fall elections, and where the result won't affect the standings in the current House? Regardless who wins this, the GOP has a firm majority in the House until next January.
  #141  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:33 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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The point would be "The Republican won, in spite of all the Evil Dems efforts!". That's all, but that's enough.
  #142  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:34 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DragonAsh View Post
Am I correct in assuming that Trump's sudden decision to slap 25% tariffs on steel, hurting US companies and consumers not to mention very possibly setting off a trade war, was basically a political stunt aimed at tilting the election in PA?
All of his actions are impulsive, so who knows, but the timing does match.
  #143  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:45 AM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by N9IWP View Post
Lamb 113,720
Saccone 113,079

Absentee ballots still to be counted
(this was from CNN, Mithras has newer info)

Brian
Mithras gave a margin of 641, same as you, so I assume same info.

If Alleghany, Westmoreland, and Washington county absentee ballots have all been counted, that just leaves Greene, which IIRC is by far the smallest of the four counties in terms of population in PA-18 as presently constituted. Can't see that changing the outcome dramatically.

So the answer to the question in the thread title is:

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  #144  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:56 AM
GIGObuster GIGObuster is online now
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I was thinking that, but I think once again his lack of awareness hurt his cause again, as it forced the rest of the GOP as a unified entity to come out on the record against doing anything to help steel.
Donald Trump doesn't have the Midas touch, he has the Mierdas touch.
  #145  
Old 03-14-2018, 07:58 AM
Johnny Bravo Johnny Bravo is online now
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Originally Posted by Northern Piper View Post
Is there really any point to a recount for a seat that won't exist in the fall elections, and where the result won't affect the standings in the current House? Regardless who wins this, the GOP has a firm majority in the House until next January.
A win here is huge for Democrats. Not only because it would energize the base, but because it will encourage more challengers in previously safe GOP districts. More challenges means more news about the 'Blue Wave.' It means the GOP has to spread its money around even more. It makes the big GOP donors more wary. And then there's all the 'Trump referendum' news that goes with it, not to mention the wound to Trump's pride since he went out there and gave his personal endorsement.

Honestly, Conor Lamb's actual physical presence in DC is almost ancillary to the benefits of his win.

If Conor Lamb loses, even by .01%, the Dems have to run with "hey, we almost pulled it off and if you look at the statistical breakdown compared to the 2016 election it's still a really meaningful outcome!"

That doesn't sell quite as well.

Last edited by Johnny Bravo; 03-14-2018 at 08:01 AM.
  #146  
Old 03-14-2018, 08:29 AM
pdhenry pdhenry is offline
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Mithras gave a margin of 641, same as you, so I assume same info.

If Alleghany, Westmoreland, and Washington county absentee ballots have all been counted, that just leaves Greene, which IIRC is by far the smallest of the four counties in terms of population in PA-18 as presently constituted. Can't see that changing the outcome dramatically...
Last night MSNBC was saying that there were only about 200 absentee ballots in Greene County.
  #147  
Old 03-14-2018, 08:33 AM
Steve MB Steve MB is offline
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Originally Posted by Johnny Bravo View Post
A win here is huge for Democrats. Not only because it would energize the base, but because it will encourage more challengers in previously safe GOP districts. More challenges means more news about the 'Blue Wave.' It means the GOP has to spread its money around even more. It makes the big GOP donors more wary. And then there's all the 'Trump referendum' news that goes with it, not to mention the wound to Trump's pride since he went out there and gave his personal endorsement.
Not to mention encouraging GOP reps facing unexpectedly tough races to decide that they're rather spend more time with their families.
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  #148  
Old 03-14-2018, 08:35 AM
Steve MB Steve MB is offline
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This is an interesting bit.
Quote:
Earlier in the evening, before it became clear the results would be so close, several Republican officials told CNN they were expecting Saccone to lose. Party officials were placing the blame squarely on Saccone's campaign but also on Trump's Saturday rally for the candidate, which some Republicans believe helped drive up Democratic turnout.
Given how slim the final margin turned out to be, this bit of defeatism and blame-gaming might just have been enough to tip the scales.
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  #149  
Old 03-14-2018, 08:52 AM
JohnT JohnT is offline
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I love the latest GOP spin: "Well, Lamb is basically a Republican anyway, so..."

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
  #150  
Old 03-14-2018, 09:01 AM
wguy123 wguy123 is offline
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I'm guessing the Republicans are huddling this morning trying to figure out how to turn this around. The conversation is probably like:

"OK guys: Tariffs on steel and aluminum didn't do it. Exploding our debt with the tax giveaway didn't do it. What else can we try to get people to like us? Free blowjobs outside the polls?"
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