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  #151  
Old 04-18-2020, 02:56 PM
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California secession has come up before, e.g.:



Or, This thread started soon after The Catastrophe of 8 November 2016.
Maybe I have been reading too much history and historical fiction lately. On a kick reading about Russian history and the French revolution.

What the hell, off topic a bit but I can recommend a couple of books. Hillary Mantel, A Place of Greater Safety, about the French revolution. The only word is "Dickensian." Great story, great prose.

1917 by Solschenizyn. Just recently translated into English, 600 pages about the 5 days of the revolution, and three more novels to come about that year.

The thing is, when it happens, it happens very quickly. No one sees it coming. Louis XVI didn't, Nicolas II didn't. King George the Third didn't. Gorbachev didn't.

Disclaimer - I'm not a communist. I think the Russian revolution, initially, was one of the greatest things in history, but it quickly went bad with Lenin, one of the worst monsters in history. And in France The Terror.

When the US breaks up, I hope it will be peaceful.
  #152  
Old 04-18-2020, 03:04 PM
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Now, the primary argument against this happening that I have seen is that there are many Reds (I still find it so ironic that red is the color of the Republican party) in blue states. And yes there are but they are a minority, and every state and country that has ever existed has a minority. Brexit did not get 100% support. Nowhere near.
The problem is that it buys into the false premise that the country is "divided."

The country is not really divided. That is a conceit which has been designed, fostered, and perpetuated by the Republican Party over the last three or four decades, in order to maintain what political power it has. The problem is not that there are "good" people and "bad" people, and that the "bad" people are winning. That's not the problem, fundamentally, really.

The problem is that the nation has been hijacked by an extensive, pervasive bullshit spewing propaganda machine--created by the Republican Party--which has exploited the lack of critical thinking skills in a very large portion of the population, largely sustained by bullshit media. Trump just stepped in and exploited it to serve his own filthy, corrupt and infantile personal greed. The Republicans now have no choice but to stand by and let him have his way, because their own political existence has also been predicated upon the platform that Trump is exploiting.

It's also a false premise that there is some kind of "forgotten white working class" that the left is ignoring. That's total bullshit. If that were really the problem, then Bernie Sanders would be on the way to the presidency. The only reason Trump has gained power is that he's exploiting the bullshit rhetoric that fuels this propaganda machine, putting on his dog-and-pony shows that appeal to people who have lost all power of critical thinking, thanks to bullshit reality TV.

Yes--white nationalism is totally mixed up with this, but it would never have gained purchase without the larger propaganda machine itself, which is designed to keep the larger Republican Party in power.
  #153  
Old 04-18-2020, 03:38 PM
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The problem is that it buys into the false premise that the country is "divided."

The country is not really divided. That is a conceit which has been designed, fostered, and perpetuated by the Republican Party over the last three or four decades, in order to maintain what political power it has. The problem is not that there are "good" people and "bad" people, and that the "bad" people are winning. That's not the problem, fundamentally, really.

The problem is that the nation has been hijacked by an extensive, pervasive bullshit spewing propaganda machine--created by the Republican Party--which has exploited the lack of critical thinking skills in a very large portion of the population, largely sustained by bullshit media. Trump just stepped in and exploited it to serve his own filthy, corrupt and infantile personal greed. The Republicans now have no choice but to stand by and let him have his way, because their own political existence has also been predicated upon the platform that Trump is exploiting.

It's also a false premise that there is some kind of "forgotten white working class" that the left is ignoring. That's total bullshit. If that were really the problem, then Bernie Sanders would be on the way to the presidency. The only reason Trump has gained power is that he's exploiting the bullshit rhetoric that fuels this propaganda machine, putting on his dog-and-pony shows that appeal to people who have lost all power of critical thinking, thanks to bullshit reality TV.

Yes--white nationalism is totally mixed up with this, but it would never have gained purchase without the larger propaganda machine itself, which is designed to keep the larger Republican Party in power.
I agree with everything that you say except that the country is not divided. Yes it is and always has been. Always will be.
  #154  
Old 04-18-2020, 05:25 PM
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The US is not likely to disintegrate. But reactionary activists and frightened GOP butt-kissers know they can't hold the country honestly. Free and fair elections are their doom. Thus the gerrymandering, voter suppression, court-stacking, and other tricks for a dying demographic to retain power a bit longer. Putin's puppy is right - mail-in ballots and universal suffrage mean no GOPer will be elected again. Cheaters gonna cheat.
  #155  
Old 04-19-2020, 07:54 AM
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The political situation in America is grave and likely to get much graver. But I just don't see break-up or full-scale Civil War as likely. The insane vs sane battle may seem to have the character of Hutu vs Tutsi in Rwanda, but the delineation is much less clear. Birth certificates do not show predictions for sanity or intelligence. A Have-nots fighting Haves model doesn't fit either.

One can almost imagine insurrections like the California government seizing control of Federal offices located in the state, but it's doubtful such actions would have much support. (I've heard that the FBI sends out teams to confiscate PPE purchased by California. Is it possible that Calif will start sending National Guardsmen to accompany such cargo?)

The way that the GOP swindles to win elections should be the very top news story, but many seem unaware of it. With the "activists" in Generations X, Y and Z more intent on rigging up charges against Biden and "the DNC" than on attacking the criminals running the country, I see little hope.

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Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
The US is not likely to disintegrate. But reactionary activists and frightened GOP butt-kissers know they can't hold the country honestly. Free and fair elections are their doom. Thus the gerrymandering, voter suppression, court-stacking, and other tricks for a dying demographic to retain power a bit longer. Putin's puppy is right - mail-in ballots and universal suffrage mean no GOPer will be elected again. Cheaters gonna cheat.
In another thread I recently linked to a must-read article. The young John Roberts (now Chief Justice) got his start helping the GOP cheat:
Quote:
Originally Posted by https://newrepublic.com/article/156861/republican-voter-suppression-tactics-trump-2020
I dont want everybody to vote, Paul Weyrich, the legendary conservative activist and co-founder of the Heritage Foundation, told a religious right gathering in Dallas during the 1980 campaign. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down. Two years later, a young John Roberts would send a memo to his boss at the Reagan Justice Department outlining a sophisticated legal strategy to dramatically narrow the scope of the Voting Rights Act.
The Census Bureau will announce a new apportionment for Congress, probably in December. This Bureau reports to Trump and his crooks; and the pandemic will provide great opportunity for cheating. I think I'll start a thread about that ...
  #156  
Old 04-19-2020, 10:21 AM
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I agree with everything that you say except that the country is not divided. Yes it is and always has been. Always will be.
The vast majority are not materially divided. The life and interests of a Walmart worker, or a small business owner, or whatever, in Arkansas are no different than those of one in Los Angeles. They think that way only because they've been fed this narrative from the likes of Rush Limbaugh for decades. It's a fiction.
  #157  
Old 04-19-2020, 11:54 AM
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When a President openly encourages the populace to rebel against orders a Governor issues and crowds show up to protest carrying guns, then I would say all bets are off. Anything could happen at that point. A tiny spark could set things off that could quickly snowball out of control.
  #158  
Old 04-19-2020, 03:15 PM
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When a President openly encourages the populace to rebel against orders a Governor issues and crowds show up to protest carrying guns, then I would say all bets are off. Anything could happen at that point. A tiny spark could set things off that could quickly snowball out of control.
Trump doesn't say these things because he actually expects or wants them to rebel. He doesn't really give a shit what they do about the epidemic, (though he knows he needs a good economy to get re-elected). He just says these things as part of his continual bullshit act-- a performance--which dupes them into supporting him, so he can get their vote.

It's a TV show. And when people are "shocked" or object to it, it just becomes part of the show, furthering his purposes.
  #159  
Old 04-19-2020, 03:41 PM
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Trump doesn't say these things because he actually expects or wants them to rebel. He doesn't really give a shit what they do about the epidemic, (though he knows he needs a good economy to get re-elected). He just says these things as part of his continual bullshit act-- a performance--which dupes them into supporting him, so he can get their vote.

It's a TV show. And when people are "shocked" or object to it, it just becomes part of the show, furthering his purposes.
They're also part of his base, and Chump is going to support them come hell or high water and fuck it if it directly contradicts his previous statements or actions.
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  #160  
Old 04-19-2020, 04:18 PM
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They're also part of his base, and Chump is going to support them come hell or high water and fuck it if it directly contradicts his previous statements or actions.
Well, we all heard his response when he was asked about the protesters in Ohio. Effectively, he said, "They like me, so who cares what they do?"

For him, it doesn't matter what else happens, as long as "they like me." His previous statements and actions? He probably can't even remember what they were.

For Trump, everything he does is about "They like me," (and making personal profit). The policy itself is irrelevant. That's why he's all over the place, and fucking everything up when it comes to actually running things. It's been like this for three years--nothing's different now.
  #161  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:02 PM
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Trump doesn't say these things because he actually expects or wants them to rebel. He doesn't really give a shit what they do about the epidemic, (though he knows he needs a good economy to get re-elected). He just says these things as part of his continual bullshit act-- a performance--which dupes them into supporting him, so he can get their vote.

It's a TV show. And when people are "shocked" or object to it, it just becomes part of the show, furthering his purposes.
You managed to completely miss my point.

When a President encourages people to protest, when he agrees they are being deprived of their liberty and the result is they show up carrying guns, it would take very little for the situation to escalate.

If law enforcement arrives with orders to disperse the protesters are you 100% certain one of the gun toting protesters won't resist in some way? Maybe a shot is fired.

Shit would escalate very very quickly. What DJT wants, expects or hopes will happen is irrelevant in that case.
  #162  
Old 04-19-2020, 09:40 PM
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You managed to completely miss my point.

When a President encourages people to protest, when he agrees they are being deprived of their liberty and the result is they show up carrying guns, it would take very little for the situation to escalate.

If law enforcement arrives with orders to disperse the protesters are you 100% certain one of the gun toting protesters won't resist in some way? Maybe a shot is fired.

Shit would escalate very very quickly. What DJT wants, expects or hopes will happen is irrelevant in that case.
Yeah, it would. Basically, that would be a "Kent State" moment. It could spark another Oklahoma City type response. (Today is the anniversary of that, BTW).

It also wouldn't surprise me if there were some sparks growing out of a fed/state confrontation about pandemic supplies.
  #163  
Old 04-20-2020, 03:42 AM
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You managed to completely miss my point.

When a President encourages people to protest, when he agrees they are being deprived of their liberty and the result is they show up carrying guns, it would take very little for the situation to escalate.

If law enforcement arrives with orders to disperse the protesters are you 100% certain one of the gun toting protesters won't resist in some way? Maybe a shot is fired.

Shit would escalate very very quickly. What DJT wants, expects or hopes will happen is irrelevant in that case.
That all would be a more pressing concern with a normal president, but this is a game that Trump and his supporters have been playing for years now. You saw those "protesters." Some of them actually were wearing masks. That belies the whole thing. This is recreational outrage for them--stress on the recreational. At some point their stupidity comes up to a wall.

Yes, it's very true that from time to time there is the guy who takes it all the way--who drives a train into a parking lot, or something like that. And I agree, of course that's bad. I think one or two of the Bundy people did that. But that's an extremely low number compared to the total who are engaged in these theatrics. Deep down they know they're not going to win a violent encounter. Deep down they know that they benefit from the system overall as much as anyone else. They just like to play with their guns and pretend they're in an action movie, because for most, that's the fantasy that their guns are for.

So yeah--I'm not missing your point at all, nor saying this behavior isn't risky. I'm just saying this is the same old game that Trump and many of his supporters play.
  #164  
Old 04-20-2020, 10:13 AM
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There's also the fact that a lot of people are, justifiably, outraged at these protests. What if somebody gets so angry at them that they shoot a protestor? In other words, it doesn't have to be the gun-toting MAGA types that fire the first shot. It's enough that the first shot gets fired.

I actually don't think the first shot will matter all that much. It's the second time there's shots fired at one of these protests, or the third, that will start to move things.

So far, the system seems to be holding despite the cracks, and maybe people are learning. But we've got 8 months to go with an increasingly desperate lunatic at the helm, so I'm not worried for now but I'm not sanguine about it, either.
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