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  #101  
Old 04-15-2020, 10:41 PM
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You know, it's a lot easier to list "won'ts" than "wills."

Won't be less than a Senator or Governor.
Won't be from a coastal elite blue state (and definitely not NY or CA)
Won't be within 20 years of Biden's age.
Won't be unknown to 99% of the public, unless she's a poc.

Gretchen Whitmer says she's not a candidate. Amy Klobuchar is 18 years younger, Michelle Lujan Grisham 17, Maggie Hassan 15, and Tammy Baldwin 19.

The 20 year figure is fudgable, so Klobuchar, Grisham, Hassan, and Baldwin are probably still in the race. A VP nod can change a mind, so maybe Whitmer.

Grisham, Hassan, and Baldwin are 99% unknowns. Whitmer has had some press lately but at best squeaks over to 98% unknown. Klobuchar has some national recognition (29% have an opinion about her) and Dems like to pick VPs from people who were in primaries.

Catherine Cortez Masto is young (21 years youner than Biden) but only has three years of Senate experience, which is way too little. OTOH, she's Latina and that's huge. OTOH again, in Nevada the governor gets to pick a replacement for a vacant Senate seat and the Nevada governor is a Republican. The Dems can't possibly afford to lose a Senate seat. The governor of Wisconsin is a Democrat.

I keep coming back to Klobuchar.
  #102  
Old 04-16-2020, 02:58 AM
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... Two, and more importantly: he failed to take into account the fact that the tide of current events in the months leading up to the election could potentially shape a stellar VP choice who would then be locked out because it might be a man. Let's say that in the next few months, one of the state governors does an absolutely amazing job of rising to the occasion, truly distinguishing that state's mitigation efforts above all the others. Let's say just hypothetically that Jay Inslee, for instance, in the course of governorship during this pandemic, comes up with some kind of amazingly creative and effective plan that leads to a situation when, after the initial dust has settled in a few months, the whole country is looking at Washington State and saying, "wow, they did something right - their response to the virus was head and shoulders above the rest of the country."

Imagine this is a poker game. It's Hold 'em. Biden has his cards. The coronavirus is the flop. The mitigation efforts are the turn. The resolution is the river. But wait, none of that matters because Biden folded as soon as he got his cards.
I liked Lamoral's post, but responded to it in the "Can Biden beat Trump? thread.
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Time is running out, but if a real champion does emerge (Inslee or whoever), do NOT make him the VP candidate. Biden should stand aside and let the Champion run for the Big Job.
  #103  
Old 04-16-2020, 08:45 AM
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Gretchen Whitmer says she's not a candidate. Amy Klobuchar is 18 years younger, Michelle Lujan Grisham 17, Maggie Hassan 15, and Tammy Baldwin 19.
There is no way I could see it be Whitmer. In a normal year sure. Right now she is the governor of a state in the middle of an apocalypse. How would it look if she took off time to campaign for a different job?

Last edited by Loach; 04-16-2020 at 08:47 AM.
  #104  
Old 04-16-2020, 10:58 AM
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There is no way I could see it be Whitmer. In a normal year sure. Right now she is the governor of a state in the middle of an apocalypse. How would it look if she took off time to campaign for a different job?
Right. No governor wants to look as if they abandoned a crisis for personal gain. Which is the same answer to septimus' "champion," such a flamboyantly disastrous idea that I'm surprised Trump didn't say it.
  #105  
Old 04-16-2020, 11:03 AM
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There is no way I could see it be Whitmer. In a normal year sure. Right now she is the governor of a state in the middle of an apocalypse. How would it look if she took off time to campaign for a different job?
I agree Whitmer's becoming more of a long shot. Even if the coronoavirus starts to level off by summer, there's no way the Dems would want to risk a flair-up in September or October, where she's needed in Lansing to do some serious governin'.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:34 AM
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As I said in the other thread about the Champion.. you want to completely piss off African-American voters? Then replace the candidate they came out in droves to vote for. I can just see crowds of black Democrats chanting "Black Votes Matter" in response... which would not look good to say the least.
  #107  
Old 04-16-2020, 11:48 AM
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It's a bad idea on many levels but the idea that black voters in particular would be outraged is a little out there.
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Old 04-16-2020, 11:55 AM
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OK, Sorry everybody. I just have a pessimistic view of this election, and am feeling desperate.
  #109  
Old 04-16-2020, 12:33 PM
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It's a bad idea on many levels but the idea that black voters in particular would be outraged is a little out there.
They most definitely would be. A lot of black voters are proud that they were so essential to Biden's primary victory. I know Twitter isn't real life, but I've seen meme after meme about the "Establishment" that Sanders supporters trash are older black voters.
  #110  
Old 04-16-2020, 01:24 PM
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What is the source of these memes?

Biden isn't their hero. He's a safe trustworthy candidate so they voted for him. Black Biden voters wouldn't be anymore worked up than white Biden voters about these suggested shenanigans.
  #111  
Old 04-16-2020, 01:39 PM
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Black twitter, as far as I can tell. Who are also upset at black voters being called 'low information voters' by some on the left.

I mean turnout was way up in SC, VA, etc, consisting of African-Americans who came out in droves to vote Biden. There is a belief, among the pundits as well as black voters I've seen, that Biden owes his victory to Clyburn and the high black turnout in South Carolina.
  #112  
Old 04-16-2020, 02:09 PM
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You know, it's a lot easier to list "won'ts" than "wills."

Won't be less than a Senator or Governor.
Won't be from a coastal elite blue state (and definitely not NY or CA)
Won't be within 20 years of Biden's age.
Won't be unknown to 99% of the public, unless she's a poc.

Gretchen Whitmer says she's not a candidate. Amy Klobuchar is 18 years younger, Michelle Lujan Grisham 17, Maggie Hassan 15, and Tammy Baldwin 19.

The 20 year figure is fudgable, so Klobuchar, Grisham, Hassan, and Baldwin are probably still in the race. A VP nod can change a mind, so maybe Whitmer.
The other Tammy is an Illinois senator, 26 years younger than Biden and on the more moderate side if that is a factor in Biden's calculation. However she hasn't completed her first term and I have no idea how unknown she is to the public.

I have to assume Klobuchar is the favorite, but I wouldn't be shocked if it is anybody off that list.
  #113  
Old 04-16-2020, 02:19 PM
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Black twitter, as far as I can tell. Who are also upset at black voters being called 'low information voters' by some on the left.

I mean turnout was way up in SC, VA, etc, consisting of African-Americans who came out in droves to vote Biden. There is a belief, among the pundits as well as black voters I've seen, that Biden owes his victory to Clyburn and the high black turnout in South Carolina.
Well, South Carolina undoubtedly saved Biden. But black voters in California sure didn't. So I don't buy black twitter's take. This was a safe centrist Dem thing, of which black SC primary voters are mostly comprised.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-16-2020 at 02:19 PM.
  #114  
Old 04-16-2020, 02:23 PM
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The other Tammy is an Illinois senator, 26 years younger than Biden and on the more moderate side if that is a factor in Biden's calculation. However she hasn't completed her first term and I have no idea how unknown she is to the public.

I have to assume Klobuchar is the favorite, but I wouldn't be shocked if it is anybody off that list.
You're correct. Somehow I got it in my head that she was still in the House. That puts her in the same category as Cortez Masto, as both are still first-term Senators. I would put Duckworth slightly behind, as there are more Latinx than Asians and Nevada is a shakier state than Illinois. (That assumes a VP can make a difference in a close state, for which solid evidence is also shaky.)

I agree it could be anybody on my list. This of all years, though, a VP nominee is going to find getting attention to be difficult, another reason to choose someone as already familiar as possible.
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Old 04-16-2020, 02:34 PM
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Well, South Carolina undoubtedly saved Biden. But black voters in California sure didn't. So I don't buy black twitter's take. This was a safe centrist Dem thing, of which black SC primary voters are mostly comprised.
Turnout was up in many states this primary and a lot of that increase was black voters coming out to vote for Biden, not just in SC, but in many Super Tuesday states (Virginia and North Carolina in particular), and in Alabama and Mississippi (20% higher than 2016), where the majority of Democratic primary voters are black voters. And consider 55% of all black people in the US live in the South (18 percent in the Midwest, 17 percent in the Northeast, and 10 percent in the West) according to the 2010 Census.
  #116  
Old 04-16-2020, 02:45 PM
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I am not denying black voters put Biden on top. I'm saying it doesn't seem to be their blackness has much to do with it. Sanders did quite well with black voters under 45 in most states.

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  #117  
Old 04-16-2020, 03:28 PM
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I'm basing the drastically increased turnout with enthusiasm - led by black voters. That matches what I'm seeing online as well. Though I guess you could read their increased turnout as in they REAAALY hated Sanders, but I don't think that's super true.
  #118  
Old 04-16-2020, 06:04 PM
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I agree Whitmer's becoming more of a long shot. Even if the coronoavirus starts to level off by summer, there's no way the Dems would want to risk a flair-up in September or October, where she's needed in Lansing to do some serious governin'.
As a fellow Michiganderanian, do you think she could have done more for Detroit sooner?
  #119  
Old 04-19-2020, 10:19 AM
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I wonder how Gov. Whitmer's chances of being asked to run for VP have been damaged over the last couple of weeks. I heard a lot of talk that she has enforced draconian restrictions on her state, and there have been protests.
  #120  
Old 04-19-2020, 11:18 AM
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I wonder how Gov. Whitmer's chances of being asked to run for VP have been damaged over the last couple of weeks. I heard a lot of talk that she has enforced draconian restrictions on her state, and there have been protests.
By wackadoos. By people carrying rifles to protest restrictions during a global pandemic. By people waving confederate and Trump flags.

Most Michiganders, like most Americans, support the restrictions and don't want them lifted too quickly. Michiganders have been hit especially hard by this, and I understand that Metro Detroit is really the only place that's been hit hard, but that's because those of us living outstate are following the rules and staying home.

Like I said, those raising a big stink about staying home are wackadoos. In some parts of the state, all you have to do is yell "Guns 'n' freedom!" and you can attract 1,000 people waving "Don't Tread on Me" flags. And that's all this was in Lansing.

If Whitmer's chances have been hurt by anything it's the fact that she's still got a lot of work ahead of her as governor in the year ahead. Now's not the time to be going off on the campaign trail.
  #121  
Old 04-21-2020, 06:34 AM
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Again I ask.... could she have done more for Detroit sooner?
  #122  
Old 04-21-2020, 06:56 AM
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I wonder how Gov. Whitmer's chances of being asked to run for VP have been damaged over the last couple of weeks. I heard a lot of talk that she has enforced draconian restrictions on her state, and there have been protests.
The vast majority of the state is behind her, it's only the astroturf whack-a-doodle dandies that are up in arms.

I like Whitmer, I voted for her in 2018, I'll do so again in 2022. But I'm not sure she's vice-presidential timber. I'd prefer Kamala Harris, though I'd rather see her as AG and have her appoint a division of G-men into investigating Don the Con and his entire syndicate.
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Old 04-21-2020, 08:43 AM
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Will he pick Michelle Obama?


Does it really matter? Democrats already will pick him over Trump any day and it might bring in more black votes.

I'm guessing some of the people you all have mentioned like Governor Whitmer and all the others with years of service to the party and government, will not be happy but they wont show it.
  #124  
Old 04-21-2020, 09:56 AM
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Will he pick Michelle Obama?


Does it really matter? Democrats already will pick him over Trump any day and it might bring in more black votes.

I'm guessing some of the people you all have mentioned like Governor Whitmer and all the others with years of service to the party and government, will not be happy but they wont show it.
Why would she want to be VP? She could probably be Prez if she wanted. I expect she wants to enjoy the rest of her life with her family in relative peace, comfort, and ease, doing things she enjoys. Which is a totally reasonable desire, IMO.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:44 AM
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Why would she want to be VP? She could probably be Prez if she wanted. I expect she wants to enjoy the rest of her life with her family in relative peace, comfort, and ease, doing things she enjoys. Which is a totally reasonable desire, IMO.
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  #126  
Old 04-21-2020, 11:35 AM
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Joe Biden has committed to picking a woman as his vice presidential candidate. Several news sources have come up with short lists of potential running mates.

Do you think he'll choose someone who already ran (and lost) for the presidential spot?

Will he go for a relative unknown?

Someone from a swing state?

A minority woman?

CNN says their top 10 list is:
10. Michelle Lujan Grisham
9. Stacey Abrams
8. Val Demings
7. Tammy Baldwin
6. Tammy Duckworth
5. Elizabeth Warren
4. Catherine Cortez Masto
3. Amy Klobuchar
2. Gretchen Whitmer
1. Kamala Harris
None of those ladies would have been considered a opponent for Trump, and we know the Democrat voters will be voting for the running mate, since nobody believes Biden will last longer than a year.

Also, it would be REALLY bad optics for the more obnoxious picks here (Warren, Harris, Abrams) to have to debate the lovable and harmless Vice President Pence. That would only hurt the Biden ticket.

It's not going to matter who he picks, anyway. He's not going to win.
Trump is the best president in the history of America.
  #127  
Old 04-21-2020, 11:41 AM
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None of those ladies would have been considered a opponent for Trump, and we know the Democrat voters will be voting for the running mate, since nobody believes Biden will last longer than a year.

Also, it would be REALLY bad optics for the more obnoxious picks here (Warren, Harris, Abrams) to have to debate the lovable and harmless Vice President Pence. That would only hurt the Biden ticket.

It's not going to matter who he picks, anyway. He's not going to win.
Trump is the best president in the history of America.
I love satire too!
  #128  
Old 04-21-2020, 11:51 AM
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I love satire too!
Yeah. The phrase "Democrat voter" always gives it away
  #129  
Old 04-21-2020, 12:27 PM
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... the lovable and harmless Vice President Pence. ...

Trump is the best president in the history of America.
Best laugh I've had in years! Keep them coming.
  #130  
Old 04-21-2020, 01:23 PM
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I have a feeling lately it's gonna be (or should be) Warren.

I know people say choice of running mate doesn't matter one bit, but it does. It did for Trump, it did for Obama, it did for W. I think what doesn't matter like it once did is state of origin.

It seems like we're headed toward an economic downtown, or downright crash. I think what's gonna be needed is someone with economic chops to round out the ticket, and not just any economic chops, but economic chops to deliver for the middle class and working class in really big ways. No one else on the short list of veeps comes close to what Warren has been talking about her whole career. As people start to see their jobs cut hours or go away, as people watch their retirement accounts shrivel up, as they worry about healthcare, I think Biden grabbing onto Warren and her economic message would be like salve on a troubled nation.

Abrams doesn't bring steering economic experience or messaging, klobuchar doesn't, Harris doesn't, whitmer doesn't, demmings doesn't, duckworth doesn't. Warren does. I think that economic message will matter more than someone's home state, skin color or ideological closeness to Biden.

Some more on the importance of an economic expert: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...y-with-vp-pick
  #131  
Old 04-21-2020, 04:27 PM
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I have a feeling lately it's gonna be (or should be) Warren.
Two main problems (and she was my #1 choice for President):

1) She is old, and I think we need someone younger
2) The governor of MA is a Republican, and he gets to appoint the interim replacement. There is a (not great) chance of flipping the Senate, and giving up a seat is not a good plan.
  #132  
Old 04-21-2020, 04:43 PM
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Two main problems (and she was my #1 choice for President):

1) She is old, and I think we need someone younger
2) The governor of MA is a Republican, and he gets to appoint the interim replacement. There is a (not great) chance of flipping the Senate, and giving up a seat is not a good plan.
Someone posted here (sorry, I forget who), and I read an article recently confirming it, but the Democrats in the MA state legislature have veto-proof majorities, which would allow them to pass a law requiring a same-party replacement from the governor.

And she's a very sprightly 70. I'd have no problem with her in the White House.
  #133  
Old 04-21-2020, 06:54 PM
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Warren is as likely to be chosen as Michelle Obama.
  #134  
Old 04-21-2020, 07:17 PM
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Warren is as likely to be chosen as Michelle Obama.
Are you Joe Biden?
  #135  
Old 04-21-2020, 08:57 PM
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Are you Joe Biden?
I'm not Donald Trump either, but his odds of picking Warren or Obama are the same as Biden's.
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:12 PM
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Golly, when you put it like that...
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Old 04-21-2020, 10:17 PM
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Again I ask.... could she have done more for Detroit sooner?
No idea. But I suspect not. I mean, she's a Dem working with a Dem Detroit mayor who previously worked in hospital administration in Detroit. I would think those types of relationships would've made the communication between all parties pretty smooth right from the get-go, and I don't think anyone in the various positions of power would've written off the situation.
  #138  
Old 05-28-2020, 04:03 PM
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The cop who just killed a black guy in Minnesota has been in trouble multiple times before, and when Amy Klobuchar was prosecutor of Minneapolis and Derick Chauvin got in trouble in she refused to prosecute.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/91692...uct-complaints

I'm guessing this will deeply affect her optics with the democratic party.

My money is on Warren at this point. Intelligent, progressive and with what seems a pretty clean past.
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  #139  
Old 05-28-2020, 09:07 PM
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The cop who just killed a black guy in Minnesota has been in trouble multiple times before, and when Amy Klobuchar was prosecutor of Minneapolis and Derick Chauvin got in trouble in she refused to prosecute.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/91692...uct-complaints

I'm guessing this will deeply affect her optics with the democratic party.

My money is on Warren at this point. Intelligent, progressive and with what seems a pretty clean past.
Klobuchar looks good till you look even a little closer and then you see she is a lousy democratic candidate. Much like Biden but we are stuck with him.

Hopefully this puts a pin in Klobuchar's chances for VP.
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  #140  
Old 05-28-2020, 10:35 PM
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Still with Warren. Let’s let the grandparents rule for a while. “Your protests are mean! Curfew for a week!”
  #141  
Old 05-29-2020, 12:10 AM
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I'm still with Warren too. I've read a few stories in the past couple days that show her polling tops with African-Americans and Latinos, and being the candidate that potentially turns out young people and progressives. She's got the name recognition, the wonky governing plans, the ear of Biden, the fund-raising, the online savviness and the polling.

And not only is she the one I think he'll go with, she's the one I hope he'll go with. While I like Biden, and I'm excited to vote against Trump, she would bring a whole 'nother level of excitement to Election Day for me.

Dagnabbit, we'll get a Gen-Xer in the WH one of these days, but not this year.
  #142  
Old 05-29-2020, 05:53 AM
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I like Warren or Abrams best. I don't think Klobuchar is a good choice, but she has something, by my measure, that I think might be rare among Democrats, IMO - absolute ruthlessness and killer instinct (politically speaking) paired with a very sharp mind. I don't like her on the issues compared to most other possibilities, but that's such a rare quality that I think she still has a very bright future in the party.
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  #143  
Old 05-29-2020, 06:13 AM
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Sen. Cortez Masto says she is not interested in the job.
  #144  
Old 05-29-2020, 09:17 AM
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I like Warren or Abrams best.
I still don't get the love affair with Stacy Abrams. Lack of experience should disqualify her immediately.
  #145  
Old 05-29-2020, 10:04 AM
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I'm telling ya' buy youse ain't listenin'. Susana Martinez Governor of New Mexico.

She is younger than (60), more female than, and more right-wing than Biden. She is pro-life and pro-gun. She is from the West and Hispanic. All in all, she brings balance to the ticket. Further, she has done well in the current epidemic.

On the downside is she had a small scandal about a drunken party. Some would consider that a minus, I suppose.
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  #146  
Old 05-29-2020, 10:14 AM
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A few years back Palin family had a drunk party but nobody was locked up.

Other than Harris , Abrams is the among the most well known black woman politician. I guess that explains her appeal. BTW Michelle Obama is not a politician.

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 05-29-2020 at 10:16 AM.
  #147  
Old 05-29-2020, 10:37 AM
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I'm telling ya' buy youse ain't listenin'. Susana Martinez Governor of New Mexico.

She is younger than (60), more female than, and more right-wing than Biden. She is pro-life and pro-gun. She is from the West and Hispanic. All in all, she brings balance to the ticket. Further, she has done well in the current epidemic.

On the downside is she had a small scandal about a drunken party. Some would consider that a minus, I suppose.
Why go to the right? Having an anti-abortion VP is NOT going to sit well with the Democratic base, especially given Biden's age.
  #148  
Old 05-29-2020, 10:49 AM
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Susana Martinez is a Republican.
  #149  
Old 05-29-2020, 10:54 AM
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I like Warren or Abrams best. I don't think Klobuchar is a good choice, but she has something, by my measure, that I think might be rare among Democrats, IMO - absolute ruthlessness and killer instinct (politically speaking) paired with a very sharp mind. I don't like her on the issues compared to most other possibilities, but that's such a rare quality that I think she still has a very bright future in the party.
Klobuchar would be a disastrous choice - there's no way she's veep. Not even sure she gets a cabinet post. Anyone who voted for Klobuchar would go for Biden.

I think it's probably down to Abrams, Warren, Whitmer, or Demmings, plus a few others with long shot chances. I'd rank those four probably in that order.

Early on, I thought Kamala Harris might have had a chance, but black voters and Californians in general didn't seem to warm to her campaign. She could still be an AG or some other cabinet member, though.
  #150  
Old 05-29-2020, 11:20 AM
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Susana Martinez is a Republican.
When he said she brings balance to the ticket, he really meant it!
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