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Old 04-24-2020, 10:47 AM
Bijou Drains is offline
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Will Trump dump Pence and who will replace him?


If the polls are not looking good for Trump in August I think he will pick a woman for VP. Probably Nikki Haley.
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Old 04-24-2020, 10:59 AM
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He'd have to be crazy and/or an idiot to dump his veep and bring a new person on.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:02 AM
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He'd have to be crazy and/or an idiot to dump his veep and bring a new person on.
So, you're saying it's possible?

And I don't think he'll replace him, unless he can find another Christian of Pence's flavor to take the job. I think Pence is part of the reason the evangelicals can rationalize Trump's behavior.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:04 AM
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He'd have to be crazy and/or an idiot to dump his veep and bring a new person on.
But would ďheĒ need to? Canít we grant, for the sake of argument, that Pence would announce that heís going to reluctantly step down due to health concerns?
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:19 AM
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May I suggest Sarah Palin? He wouldn't someone brighter than him and it is hard to find people with name recognition that dumb.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:19 AM
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He can find a strong Christian woman if he wants. Haley is Christian but her parents are Sikh. She also goes to Sikh services along with Methodist churches.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:24 AM
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That'd be totally transparent. Even Trump supporters would know that he was doing so because Trump asked him to.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:31 AM
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He's dumped so many other people why is Pence different?
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:35 AM
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I think he wants to. If he saw a clear advantage from running with someone else he'd do it. The Democratic convention comes first this year, if Biden announces a woman Trump may dump Pence to do the same.
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Old 04-24-2020, 12:19 PM
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Haley was being very kiss-assey for a month or two, there, and then she stopped and started to attack a little in her statements.

Personal read: She flirted, he declined.

Since the era of peer networks and high-budget TV, Hollywood's model has been, "All sequels and updates of tentpole titles, all the time." Defensiveness is the most common strategy for someone who knows that they're looking into the face of doom, not dynamicism.

Maybe he'd take someone else, if the right person came along, but my suspicion is that Trump is going to play conservative on this front. Pence worked for him in 2016. They've had four years to learn to live together. No reason to rock the boat, now.
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Old 04-24-2020, 01:48 PM
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I don't think Trump would risk swapping out Pence. His replacement may not spend all day gazing at him in abject adoration the way that Pence does.

The only way Trump dumps Pence is if the coronavirus death toll skyrockets. That's why he made Pence head of the task force, after all -- so that he could be the scapegoat when things go south.
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Old 04-24-2020, 02:13 PM
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I don't think a president can simply dump a vice president. The vice president was elected as part of a ticket. Trump can dump Pence the day he dumps the McConnell (which is to say he can't).
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Old 04-24-2020, 02:18 PM
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I don't think a president can simply dump a vice president. The vice president was elected as part of a ticket. Trump can dump Pence the day he dumps the McConnell (which is to say he can't).
He doesn't have to be the running mate in November though
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Old 04-24-2020, 02:21 PM
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That would severely damage the evangelical vote and would be an idiotic move.
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Old 04-24-2020, 02:22 PM
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I don't think a president can simply dump a vice president. The vice president was elected as part of a ticket. Trump can dump Pence the day he dumps the McConnell (which is to say he can't).


He most certainly can. He just won’t put him on the ticket for November. Pretty sure that’s what the OP means.

I’m a hard core conservative/Republican. But does anyone else feel like they are watching Mayor Adam West when they see or hear Trump speak? I don’t mean the tone, I mean the content. I’m waiting for him to announce that Digg’um is going to be the Surgeon General.

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Old 04-24-2020, 03:11 PM
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FDR had 3 VPs , Garner for 8 years, Wallace for 4 years and Truman for 4 months.
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Old 04-24-2020, 03:51 PM
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I can't imagine any Republican with some possible decent future (i.e. Nikki Haley) would want to be Trump's VP pick -- he might lose in Nov, and if he does, he's probably bringing everyone around him down with him. And if he wins, would Haley (or whomever) really want to bank on another 4 years of Trump leaving the country in a good enough place to have a chance to win? McCain had no chance, because Bush was so unpopular at the end.

If Haley (and other prospective Republicans) are smart, they'll wait. IMO.
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Old 04-24-2020, 03:53 PM
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The notion that Trump would dump Pence is utterly absurd. I continuously see people predicting this and I have to assume that these people are just totally unable to read the pulse of politics or indeed human psychology at all. Pence was perhaps Trump's single most strategic asset in bringing into his camp the people who really would have preferred Ted Cruz. He's also the perfect foil to Trump's emotive, reactive, and boisterous persona - the "gray man" with the poker face who fades into the background, and obeys Trump's every command. It was and remains a brilliant strategic pairing.

There's also absolutely no way in hell that Trump would ever think "Biden is picking a woman, so I'll also pick a woman." That's not how Trump operates. He doesn't give a fuck about pandering to women or people who want to see women more represented in politics. He doesn't care.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:05 PM
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The notion that Trump would dump Pence is utterly absurd. I continuously see people predicting this and I have to assume that these people are just totally unable to read the pulse of politics or indeed human psychology at all. Pence was perhaps Trump's single most strategic asset in bringing into his camp the people who really would have preferred Ted Cruz. He's also the perfect foil to Trump's emotive, reactive, and boisterous persona - the "gray man" with the poker face who fades into the background, and obeys Trump's every command. It was and remains a brilliant strategic pairing.

There's also absolutely no way in hell that Trump would ever think "Biden is picking a woman, so I'll also pick a woman." That's not how Trump operates. He doesn't give a fuck about pandering to women or people who want to see women more represented in politics. He doesn't care.
Lamoral nailed the answer.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:15 PM
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People assume Trump is normal and uses logic like most human beings. He's mentally ill and not smart. So anything is possible.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:37 PM
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Of course he uses logic like most human beings, and I see no reason to think he is mentally ill. Trump is a choleric individual who bulldozes over everything in his path to gratify himself. That's his logic. It's a goal, and for the most part he's achieved it. Unfair though it may be, when you're a choleric individual who bulldozes over everything in your path to gratify yourself, the world is your oyster. People either enable you, and get rewarded, or they quarrel with you and get thrown in front of the bulldozer. It has been ever thus.

Pence is one of the people who enables him, and so he will continue to get rewarded.

You don't need a political science degree to figure this out.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:41 PM
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I don't think Trump would risk swapping out Pence. His replacement may not spend all day gazing at him in abject adoration the way that Pence does.

The only way Trump dumps Pence is if the coronavirus death toll skyrockets. That's why he made Pence head of the task force, after all -- so that he could be the scapegoat when things go south.
Exactly. This is the answer to the OP in a nutshell, along with Lamoral's elaboration.

Above all--even above wise political advice--Trump wants someone to lick his ass and never upstage him. After that, he wants someone else to blame for his incompetence. Pence is perfectly suited for this.

Last edited by guizot; 04-24-2020 at 04:43 PM.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:52 PM
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You don't need a political science degree to figure this out.
Yeah, you can say that again.

It's really annoying how much the media go on and on with analyses of Trump (and his so called "strategy"), when it's transparently clear that all he is is just a childish, self-gratifying, bullshit spewing, self-promoting, mentally lazy and incompetent jackass.

Here too, on this message board. The endless speculation is not really necessary.
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:00 PM
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No reason to assume he's mentally ill? Which of these things is not true about Trump?

Have an exaggerated sense of self-importance
Have a sense of entitlement and require constant, excessive admiration
Expect to be recognized as superior even without achievements that warrant it
Exaggerate achievements and talents
Be preoccupied with fantasies about success, power, brilliance, beauty or the perfect mate
Believe they are superior and can only associate with equally special people
Monopolize conversations and belittle or look down on people they perceive as inferior
Expect special favors and unquestioning compliance with their expectations
Take advantage of others to get what they want
Have an inability or unwillingness to recognize the needs and feelings of others
Be envious of others and believe others envy them
Behave in an arrogant or haughty manner, coming across as conceited, boastful and pretentious
Insist on having the best of everything — for instance, the best car or office

That's Narcissistic personality disorder
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:04 PM
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The notion that Trump would dump Pence is utterly absurd. I continuously see people predicting this and I have to assume that these people are just totally unable to read the pulse of politics or indeed human psychology at all. Pence was perhaps Trump's single most strategic asset in bringing into his camp the people who really would have preferred Ted Cruz. He's also the perfect foil to Trump's emotive, reactive, and boisterous persona - the "gray man" with the poker face who fades into the background, and obeys Trump's every command.
Right. I mean there's brown-nosing, and there's real serious brown-nosing and ass-kissing, but Pence has his head so far up Trump's ass that it would take a surgical miracle to separate them.
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:10 PM
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The notion that Trump would dump Pence is utterly absurd. I continuously see people predicting this and I have to assume that these people are just totally unable to read the pulse of politics or indeed human psychology at all. Pence was perhaps Trump's single most strategic asset in bringing into his camp the people who really would have preferred Ted Cruz. He's also the perfect foil to Trump's emotive, reactive, and boisterous persona - the "gray man" with the poker face who fades into the background, and obeys Trump's every command. It was and remains a brilliant strategic pairing.

There's also absolutely no way in hell that Trump would ever think "Biden is picking a woman, so I'll also pick a woman." That's not how Trump operates. He doesn't give a fuck about pandering to women or people who want to see women more represented in politics. He doesn't care.
FWIW, I agree with this, with the semi-flip reservation that Trump is just bonkers, so who knows what he'll do?

That said, Pence is steadfastly lickspittle, and that seems to be the single best way to stay on Trump's payroll. I don't see a switch happening.
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Old 04-24-2020, 07:25 PM
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I also happen to believe there's no way in hell Trump would dump Pence, but for a moment won't fight the hypothetical.

For the sake of argument, Trump wants a female running mate for. . . I dunno, reasons.

I think it unlikely that any qualified woman Republican with any hope of continuing her career would want to hitch her wagon to what at the time will be seen as a desperation move.

So that leaves unqualified women, and/or those with no hope of a future in politics.

Sarah Palin definitely fits the profile, but Trump would almost certainly want her to repudiate John McCain as her loyalty test. I don't think the equation works.

Instead, I think Trump will go where he always goes to find unqualified people for his administration: either his family or Fox News.

Ivanka? Laura Ingraham? Harris Faulkner to appeal to the ethnic vote? Who knows, but consider the possibilities!

Last edited by Kent Clark; 04-24-2020 at 07:26 PM.
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Old 04-24-2020, 09:05 PM
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People assume Trump is normal and uses logic like most human beings. He's mentally ill and not smart. So anything is possible.
Right. Therefore, my prediction is that he'll dump Pence and pick the most popular woman in America. Michelle Obama.
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Old 04-24-2020, 09:31 PM
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I don't think a president can simply dump a vice president. The vice president was elected as part of a ticket. Trump can dump Pence the day he dumps the McConnell (which is to say he can't).
Ford/Rockefeller was Ford/Dole in 1976. Lincoln/Hamlin became Lincoln/Johnson among many others.

Itís true that Pence stays VP until January 20, nothing Trunp can do about that, he canít be fired.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:42 PM
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Pence has been a good soldier for Trump. He rewards loyalty. He wonít be dumping Pence. And for once what he will do is also the smart thing. Dumping him for no reason would be stupid and not help him at all.


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I can't imagine any Republican with some possible decent future (i.e. Nikki Haley) would want to be Trump's VP pick -- he might lose in Nov, and if he does, he's probably bringing everyone around him down with him. And if he wins, would Haley (or whomever) really want to bank on another 4 years of Trump leaving the country in a good enough place to have a chance to win? McCain had no chance, because Bush was so unpopular at the end.

If Haley (and other prospective Republicans) are smart, they'll wait. IMO.
Thatís been my thought for a while. Haley is in a very good position right now. In my very unscientific study of reading shit on the internet she seems to be well liked by a wide range of Republicans. She was part of the administration but far enough removed from it in the UN to not be covered in the stink. She left before she could be in Trumpís crosshairs so she didnít piss of the Trump worshipers. She could wipe the floor with Pence if he runs in 4 years. She would be foolish to take the VP spot even if it opens tomorrow. She would have to spend her whole time campaigning making excuses for their administration rather than having basically a clean slate.
  #31  
Old 04-24-2020, 11:56 PM
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... I don't think he'll replace him, unless he can find another Christian of Pence's flavor to take the job. I think Pence is part of the reason the evangelicals can rationalize Trump's behavior.
This is exactly correct. Purely anecdotal but my Evangelical brother and sister-in-law insist they didn't vote for Trump in 2016. Rather they voted for Pence. Even their Evangelical kids (who secretly voted for HRC) find this ridiculous. Point being, I suspect there were a significant number of Evangelicals who rationalized it in the same way. This time around I don't see it working. Just this week my brother acknowledged Biden will get a good number of votes from people who would consider themselves to be Republicans in normal times.

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He can find a strong Christian woman if he wants. Haley is Christian but her parents are Sikh. She also goes to Sikh services along with Methodist churches.
Sorry but no. For too many right-wing Christians she is suspect. Attending Sikh and Methodist services won't go over well at all.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:13 AM
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Sorry but no. For too many right-wing Christians she is suspect. Attending Sikh and Methodist services won't go over well at all.
To many, they will see that male Sikhs wear turbans. Some Muslims wear turbans also. Therefor, Sikhs are Muslims too.
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Old 04-25-2020, 08:14 AM
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I believe that he will dump Pence and will do so on the day that Biden accepts the Democratic nomination. He is all about the news cycle of the hour, so to steal some limelight away from Joe Biden he will announce that Pence is being dumped in favor of...... somebody. Maybe Kanye West, one of the Kardashians, Kim Guifoyle, Doctor Phil, the list goes on. Qualifications will mean nothing, it will all be about winning the news cycle.
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Old 04-25-2020, 10:53 AM
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I don't think Trump would risk swapping out Pence. His replacement may not spend all day gazing at him in abject adoration the way that Pence does.

The only way Trump dumps Pence is if the coronavirus death toll skyrockets. That's why he made Pence head of the task force, after all -- so that he could be the scapegoat when things go south.
I can see Trump using Pench as a scapegoat; loyalty is a one way street for Trump.

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May I suggest Sarah Palin? He wouldn't someone brighter than him and it is hard to find people with name recognition that dumb.
I think she has too much sense than to run for VP again, especially as Trump's VP.
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Old 04-25-2020, 11:12 AM
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Dumping Pence would be an insane move at this point in the race. It would add a new degree of uncertainty about where Trump's head is at, and there's just no good reason to do it. Pence is stable. He's quiet. He lets Trump have attention and he locks up the Christian vote. He balances out the Trump ticket. I don't know where people keep getting this idea that it would make any kind of sense to replace Pence.
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Old 04-25-2020, 11:29 AM
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I doubt Pence helped much at all with the white evangelical Christian vote. These people hate anyone who isn't a straight white evangelical Christian, they have found a permanent home in the Republican Party since from here on out bigotry and xenophobia are going to absolute requirements for getting the nomination. I don't think Pence swayed any voters last time and I don't think dumping Pence will lose any voters this time. As long as a bigot is at the top of the ticket, white evangelical Christians are going to be just as happy punching the R ticket.
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Old 04-25-2020, 11:46 AM
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I read news at various online sites, not from TV or video feeds, s I don't receive talking-head messages about who should do what. IMHO Pants is Trimp's perfect foil, a doer in the background. I almost never see the name of Pants in reports. He is invisible except to evangelicals, exactly what Trimp wants and needs. Other suckers will be thrown under the bus. Which idiot hired a dog breeder to run the virus response? Wasn't Pants, so he's home free. Who let the Surgeon General back on the stage? Wasn't Pants so he's immune. Pants will ride with Trimp the Chimp till the very end. Then he'll execute a Hail Mary and escape prosecution. Pants know how to play political games. He will survive.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:34 PM
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Nobody does adoring looks like Mike Dense and I can't see the Don ever receiving enough of those to dispense with one. Many adoring looks. The best looks.
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Old 04-28-2020, 04:05 PM
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Pence is doing hospital visits, and not wearing a mask. Perhaps Donnie told him not to as part of a plan to get him sick enough to force him off the ticket?
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Old 04-28-2020, 04:10 PM
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Pence is doing hospital visits, and not wearing a mask. Perhaps Donnie told him not to as part of a plan to get him sick enough to force him off the ticket?
Or just claim he's sick. The Holy Hair Helmet wouldn't dream of contradicting him.
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Old 04-28-2020, 04:50 PM
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Pence is doing hospital visits, and not wearing a mask. Perhaps Donnie told him not to as part of a plan to get him sick enough to force him off the ticket?
a sane person would wear a mask in a hospital even if he did not wear one anywhere else.
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Old 04-30-2020, 12:10 AM
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a sane person would wear a mask in a hospital even if he did not wear one anywhere else.
Pants didn't fear catching COVID - or maybe he's assured of a ticket to heaven and thus needn't be a decent human being. He obviously just doesn't give a shit if others sicken and die because he's infected them. The psychopathology is glaring.
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Old 04-30-2020, 10:09 AM
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My theory is that Pence is 60 years old and looks to be in pretty good shape. Donald Trump is 73 and. . . does not look to be in pretty good shape.

Pence deliberately exposes himself to coronavirus, guessing/hoping that he won't be seriously affected. He leans in close to Trump in conversation, voila! 14-28 days later, instant President.
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Old 04-30-2020, 11:24 AM
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Trump generally only dumps people for two reasons. 1) scandal at a level that so bad that it actually lowers the reputation of his administration (generally done early on before people accepted obvious corruption as the new normal) or perceived lack of loyalty. Pence keeps his not pretty clean, and has shown no interest in being anything other than a sycophantic yes-man, so I don't see any reason Trump would dump him.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 04-30-2020 at 11:29 AM.
  #45  
Old 05-01-2020, 12:27 AM
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Trump generally only dumps people for two reasons. 1) scandal at a level that so bad that it actually lowers the reputation of his administration (generally done early on before people accepted obvious corruption as the new normal) or perceived lack of loyalty. Pence keeps his not pretty clean, and has shown no interest in being anything other than a sycophantic yes-man, so I don't see any reason Trump would dump him.
Might provocateurs try to manufacture a reason with a little disinfo campaign? Counterfeit notes disparaging the orange terror; deep-fake clips of the Veep's funny faces behind Tramp's back; leaked Pants-Putin emails discussing What Comes Next. Anything to push a presidential paranoia button. Tramp is even skittier than Nixxon was. (That's a pun on Exxon.) Spread enough rumors and it's sayonara, Pantsy.
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Old 05-01-2020, 05:02 PM
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That would severely damage the evangelical vote and would be an idiotic move.
All the more reason to think he will do it. Apparently he is really upset over the polls, and blaming his re-election team.
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Old 05-03-2020, 05:51 PM
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There's talk of this every time that a president is running for reelection but it has pretty much become a tradition that it is not done. Something like it makes you look weak, that you didn't get it right the first time or that your administration is lacking because of the performance of the VP. Nope, the reelection message is for any president that all is wonderful and the team will continue to lead.
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