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Old 05-03-2020, 10:39 AM
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Dems opposed to a Dem president running for re-election?


I believe the last time a lot of Democrats were against a Dem running for re-election was Johnson in 68. Is that right? I don't recall a big movement against Carter, Clinton or Obama. Ted Kennedy ran in 1980 against Carter but didn't really provide a strong opposition. He only won 12 states. No big names ran in 1996 or 2012.

Not sure how many but quite a few GOP members are against Trump. Some have even endorsed Biden.
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Old 05-03-2020, 11:00 AM
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Kennedy winning 12 states against Carter in 1980 was, in fact, quite a big deal (plus, all the delegates in the Michigan caucus pledged either Uncommitted or for Jerry Brown, so make it 13 states.)

In 1992, George H.W. Bush received 9 million fewer votes than he had received in 1988. (Bill Clinton received 3 million more than the 1988 Dem candidate, Michael Dukakis.)

Compare those two repudiations against whatever token opposition a few Republicans are voicing against Trump.
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Old 05-03-2020, 11:14 AM
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Tons of Democrats blame Teddy for Carter's loss in 1980. I don't think it's that simple at all, Carter was racking up negatives throughout his term, but Kennedy's attempt outraged a lot of people and hurt the Democratic Party in general.

LBJ was in trouble as the 1968 election season started and he knew it. He and the Democrats didn't know McCarthy wouldn't hold up, that Bobby would be killed, that HHH would be their candidate, and Nixon would be the Republican candidate. But the public had soured on him, for all sorts of reasons, but Vietnam did him in.
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Old 05-03-2020, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post

Not sure how many but quite a few GOP members are against Trump. Some have even endorsed Biden.
It depends on what you mean by "quite a few." In the Republican Presidential primary, Trump has won 1,626 delegates, representing 94% of the vote. His nearest competitor, Bill Weld, has only 1 delegate and about 2% of the vote.

Last edited by Blalron; 05-03-2020 at 11:48 AM.
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Old 05-03-2020, 12:08 PM
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Oftentimes the big problem for an incumbent when voters sour on him is that they don't vote at all, rather than vote for his opponent. That's often not reflected in the national vote totals, but you can see it if you sift through the state by state totals. For example, Reagan received only 27,000 more votes in Massachusetts in 1980 than Ford had in 1976, but Carter received almost 400,000 fewer votes compared to 1976. A lot of those votes went to John Anderson rather than Reagan.
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Old 05-03-2020, 12:57 PM
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LBJ died on 22nd January 1973. If you combine the alternate history of him running again in 68' and winning with the real history of his death, then his death would have been just two days after the end of his presidency.
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Old 05-03-2020, 01:29 PM
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Not sure how many but quite a few GOP members are against Trump. Some have even endorsed Biden.
There have always been members, of both parties, who, for whatever reason, have endorsed particular candidates of the opposite party.

And Trump is so obviously incompetent and unqualified that I'm just surprised more GOP members haven't opposed him.
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Old 05-03-2020, 01:38 PM
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On scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a really bad president Trump is Avogadro's number
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Old 05-03-2020, 01:42 PM
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80 was a mess with Kennedy not wanting to shake Carter’s hand after the convention speech. What a mess.

Before 68, the most opposition would have been for Truman running again in 52 which he didn’t do.
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Old 05-03-2020, 05:00 PM
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There have always been members, of both parties, who, for whatever reason, have endorsed particular candidates of the opposite party.

And Trump is so obviously incompetent and unqualified that I'm just surprised more GOP members haven't opposed him.
Would be interesting if Bush comes out and does that. I'm not sure whether that hurts or helps Biden.
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Old 05-03-2020, 05:26 PM
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Would be interesting if Bush comes out and does that. I'm not sure whether that hurts or helps Biden.
Itíll help. Any leftists that wonít vote for Biden with a Bush endorsement were going to find a reason not to vote for him anyway.
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Old 05-03-2020, 06:37 PM
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Kennedy winning 12 states against Carter in 1980 was, in fact, quite a big deal (plus, all the delegates in the Michigan caucus pledged either Uncommitted or for Jerry Brown, so make it 13 states.)

In 1992, George H.W. Bush received 9 million fewer votes than he had received in 1988. (Bill Clinton received 3 million more than the 1988 Dem candidate, Michael Dukakis.)
Keep in mind a huge chunk of Bush's losses in 1992 were due to Ross Perot's candidacy. There aren't any significant third-party candidates in this cycle. Bush would have had a significant chance of winning if Perot hadn't changed his mind after dropping out.
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Old 05-03-2020, 07:26 PM
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Before Perot went nuts and quit the race he was leading Bush and Clinton in some 1992 polls.
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Old 05-03-2020, 08:41 PM
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Keep in mind a huge chunk of Bush's losses in 1992 were due to Ross Perot's candidacy. There aren't any significant third-party candidates in this cycle. Bush would have had a significant chance of winning if Perot hadn't changed his mind after dropping out.
I agree with you, but I've heard more than a few political science types claim that Perot's candidacy hurt Bush and Clinton roughly equally.

And there are a few who claim Perot's candidacy actually hurt Clinton more.
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Old 05-03-2020, 09:44 PM
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In 1992, George H.W. Bush received 9 million fewer votes than he had received in 1988. (Bill Clinton received 3 million more than the 1988 Dem candidate, Michael Dukakis.)

Compare those two repudiations against whatever token opposition a few Republicans are voicing against Trump.
These two paragraphs don't really correlate. The first gives numbers based on what the voters did, and the second talks about a few Republicans.

Despite the lack of vocal opposition to Trump among leading Republicans, it's still possible that he'll see his vote totals decline significantly compared to 2016.

Last edited by mhendo; 05-03-2020 at 09:45 PM.
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Old 05-03-2020, 10:01 PM
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I agree with you, but I've heard more than a few political science types claim that Perot's candidacy hurt Bush and Clinton roughly equally.

And there are a few who claim Perot's candidacy actually hurt Clinton more.
Yeah, Iíve studied the 92 election and thereís really no consensus. It was the only 3rd party run that wasnít a white supremacist run in recent history. Nor was Perot running just to be a spoiler, he was on the debate stage as a real candidate.
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Old 05-04-2020, 09:06 AM
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I would have probably voted for John Kasich over Hillary. But would have had to do a little be more investigation. I'd vote for my dog over Trump. Border Collies, much smarter than Trump. Although Putin has Trump in obedience training, and he seems to be doing quite well.
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Old 05-04-2020, 09:27 AM
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On scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being a really bad president Trump is Avogadro's number
There's a mole in the Trump campaign?
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Old 05-04-2020, 02:10 PM
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There's a mole in the Trump campaign?
Hah! Iím lousy at physics, and even ISWYDT.
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