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  #301  
Old 04-20-2020, 03:57 PM
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Scatter plot of counties by Covid-19 fatality rate and 2016 Presidential Election vote.

x axis: Percent of population that voted Republican
y axis: Log of fatality rate for the county
red line: Best fit line

https://www.dropbox.com/s/9faob9mvo3...ounty.png?dl=0

Note: Counties with a fatality rate of 0 have been excluded.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-20-2020 at 04:00 PM.
  #302  
Old 04-20-2020, 04:06 PM
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Man, it's like Joe Biden doesn't even exist right now, he hasn't really been in the news.
Woodrow Wilson once observed "Never attempt to murder a man who is committing suicide."

Trump's going on the air every day and doing a better job of discrediting his presidency than Biden could do.

Last edited by Little Nemo; 04-20-2020 at 04:07 PM.
  #303  
Old 04-20-2020, 04:12 PM
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With six months at that point left till the election Trump will run as the president who defeated the virus.
In six months we'll have the death tolls. And the numbers will show that more people died of Covid19 in the United States than in any other country on Earth. Of the two hundred or so heads of state in the world, Donald Trump did the worst job.
  #304  
Old 04-20-2020, 04:42 PM
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In six months we'll have the death tolls. And the numbers will show that more people died of Covid19 in the United States than in any other country on Earth. Of the two hundred or so heads of state in the world, Donald Trump did the worst job.
Yes, but Hillary would have killed TWICE as many people!

Sigh.

I have a relative who is a big trumper and hated Hillary with the fury of a thousand suns. We aren't in touch much and only talked on the phone occasionally in the past. After trump was elected, we could NEVER talk politics. Not one word.

The other day I got a text from him about how everything has been shut down in his city (in California), and I replied with something sympathetic and neutral. But I am SOOOO dying to ask him, "You REALLY think Hillary would have done a worse job than this??" but I can't. Because I have a feeling he would immediately launch into some over-the-top conspiracy theory or bullshit explanation of how trump is trying to do his best but the libruls are sabotaging him blahblahblah.
  #305  
Old 04-20-2020, 08:21 PM
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Woodrow Wilson once observed "Never attempt to murder a man who is committing suicide."

Trump's going on the air every day and doing a better job of discrediting his presidency than Biden could do.
Biden has had some recent ads, this one hits Trump for his feuds with the various governors.
  #306  
Old 04-21-2020, 02:45 AM
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From Politico: Could Trump Use the Virus to Stay in Power?
It wouldnít be easy. A constitutional scholar games out the scenarios.
Quote:
Notably, in only one of these six scenarios does Trump retain the presidency, and that scenario relies on every member of the House surviving the pandemic and individual members of Congress adhering strictly to their party line during what would be an extraordinary constitutional crisis.

So if Trump wants to remain president, thereís pretty much no way canceling the 2020 presidential election helps him do that, at least not constitutionally. If he wants to blow up the U.S. Constitution Ö well, thatís a whole different scenario.
His actions will determine whether he dies in Bethesda or Leavenworth.
  #307  
Old 04-21-2020, 10:51 AM
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Yes, but Hillary would have killed TWICE as many people!
Sure, Trump supporters can say that. And they can say that Obama would have killed three times as many people.

But the political ads will be comparing Trump to other national leaders who are in office now and showing that he did a worse job than they did. That's going to make it obvious that he's wrong when he says he did the best possible job.
  #308  
Old 04-21-2020, 10:52 AM
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Sure, Trump supporters can say that. And they can say that Obama would have killed three times as many people.

But the political ads will be comparing Trump to other national leaders who are in office now and showing that he did a worse job than they did. That's going to make it obvious that he's wrong when he says he did the best possible job.
Will FOX run those ads?
  #309  
Old 04-21-2020, 10:59 AM
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https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/c...155243205.html

I donít want a single person to die from this disease, but if Trump loses, any deaths will not have been in vain.
That's pretty awful. It's not surprising, though. Liberals are haters. Liberal Democrats are haters.

Trump has given this country the greatest economy of all time, with ZERO help from the Democrats. He is going to be reelected in a landslide. Even if the Democrats had someone who was electable, it's not going to be even close.

You know that. It's why you hate him and you're glad those people are dead.

Awful.
  #310  
Old 04-21-2020, 11:10 AM
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That's pretty awful. It's not surprising, though. Liberals are haters. Liberal Democrats are haters.

Trump has given this country the greatest economy of all time, with ZERO help from the Democrats. He is going to be reelected in a landslide. Even if the Democrats had someone who was electable, it's not going to be even close.

You know that. It's why you hate him and you're glad those people are dead.

Awful.
WHOA!

In case people think we're making this up.
  #311  
Old 04-21-2020, 12:09 PM
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Trump has given this country the greatest economy of all time, with ZERO help from the Democrats. He is going to be reelected in a landslide. Even if the Democrats had someone who was electable, it's not going to be even close.
Trump does not have a time machine, nor does he have the power of mind control. And, I'll note, neither does Hilary Clinton. He did not jump back to the Obama Administration (2010), brainwash Barack Obama into following his commands, and start the unemployment rate on a steady decline. Likewise, she didn't lose the election, jump back a year, and brainwash Trump into hiring Paul Manafort and Carter Page.

Magic ain't real. Some things we can rule out.

And in the case of unemployment, we can also rule out the idea that Barack Obama or anyone in government is to thank for that. England, Germany, and many other nations have had a similar, extreme low unemployment rate following the Great Recession. My personal bet would be that it's an artifact of the gig economy. But, definitely, we can be certain that Barack Obama didn't fly around the world taking over the minds of Angela Merkel and David Cameron, and implement a policy that lead to wondrous unemployment across the globe.

Given that Trump has a hatred for the tech industry, and the tech industry is what brought you the gig economy, it's pretty unreasonable to thank him for it. And again, that all started from before he was in office or had the power to do diddly squat but use his position on The Apprentice to try and force women to sleep with him. He didn't do it.

Now as to things like the stock market and the continuing direction of the economy upwards, post-Obama, if there is anything to thank for those, it would be 1) cutting taxes, and 2) dumping money into the economy.

The Republicans in Congress cut taxes, that is certainly true. And they almost failed - like they actually did fail with revoking ObamaCare - at accomplishing that, because of Trump's tweets about his wall funding and various other inanities that destroyed the coalitions being built inside of Congress. Tax cuts almost didn't pass, because of Donald Trump, and that's when he had the benefit of having a Republican majority in every single branch and arm of government. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a less-extreme cut because of Trump's disruptions and that stretching out the process, so that cooler heads could push moderation into the matter.

And, I'll note, there is very little reason to think that he was the progenitor of the idea of a tax cut nor the driving force for one. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell were ready to go, the instant a Republican president was in the White House, and they would have done the same had it been Mike Pence or John McCain who got the seat.

And as for dumping money into the economy, the White House has consistently pushed for a laughably minimalist budget. Granted, I don't believe that they had any particular expectation that it would be considered by anyone in Congress, so it was purely a vehicle for wooing some libertarian voters, but the very first budget under Trump was basically just a rubber stamp to everyone on both sides of the fence. Democrats want to give caviar to all the homeless? Great! They can do it! Republicans want to buy some robot sharks for the US military? Great! Go ahead!

The budgets under Trump have all been fairly blatant attempts to buy off the public by boosting the economy through government money.

I mean take, for example, the case of George. George decides that he wants to enjoy life, so he goes to a bank and takes out a loan for $1m. Feeling happy about this, he goes to his employer and says, "Hey, you know what, I came into some money, I don't want to hurt you guys, why don't you cut my wage by half?" For the next four years, George goes on to live a life of luxury, getting a fast car, installing a pool in his backyard, etc. Great economy!

Despite the car and the pool, the luxury dinners, is George actually in a good place, economically? Or is he just self-deluded and ignoring the future, blinded by the $1m he gave himself?

Taking out some loans and lowering taxes, to propel yourself out of a recession, is probably reasonable. If you let the economy stay in a recession, it's liable to become chronic. Doing the same, when everything is good, rather than switching around to paying down the loans and getting a better money supply, is stupid and grossly financially irresponsible.

Great for getting votes, though.

Quote:
It's why you hate him and you're glad those people are dead.
Personally, I don't like Trump because I don't want my kids to have to learn Chinese.

Let's say, for example, that McDonalds saw that Burger King was finally catching up and is liable to take over the fast food industry. So McDonalds forms this clever plan:

1) Raise their prices. Hey, if the customer is paying more money, we're making more money, and Burger King will be making less per customer!
2) Charge franchise owners for use of the corporate producers. I mean, right now they're all able to get bottom dollar on beef, flour, lettuce, etc. That's money lost to the core company, and we're the ones that got all the producers assembled and willing to go bottom dollar. We deserve our 5%!

Now, what do you think, does this great plan help or hurt in McDonald's mission to fight against the encroaching financial might of Burger King?

I don't want Trump because, for as much as he's working on the things that I might want a President to work on, there is such a thing as, "Please stop helping". Competence matters.

Add if you add incompetent to criminal and liable to pack the government with a bunch of slimeballs who are going to suck away at the might and fortunes of our government for the next few decades, I'm not seeing anything good on the horizon.

Trump took millions of dollars from his dad and created a $1.25b hole. His dad died and left him a business empire of hundreds of buildings in New York City - some of the most valuable land on the planet - and he turned it into about 7 buildings, most on cheap land in the countryside.

The man is not good at business. His dad was amazing. If you compare their wealth, baby Trump is laughably horrible and appears to have shrunk dad's business to about 1/20th of its former size.

He was, it seems, good at being a TV show host. And he is good at self-promotion and making suckers think that he's good at things.

But, personally, I look at hard numbers. And the real numbers are that the number of people taking Chinese aptitude tests has curved upwards under Trump, the bank of Mexico is seeing more money sent back from abroad than ever before, and the time until the US budget makes a sound like the last bit of Jello getting pulled through a dime-sized hole into a vacuum has moved from being something like 30 years in the future to something more like 10.

Cites available (except for the last - I'm not sure of the exact predictions, though I do know that the timeline has shrunk).

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-21-2020 at 12:12 PM.
  #312  
Old 04-21-2020, 12:09 PM
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That's pretty awful. It's not surprising, though. Liberals are haters. Liberal Democrats are haters.

Trump has given this country the greatest economy of all time, with ZERO help from the Democrats. He is going to be reelected in a landslide. Even if the Democrats had someone who was electable, it's not going to be even close.

You know that. It's why you hate him and you're glad those people are dead.

Awful.
I know which post I'm going to link to on November 4.
  #313  
Old 04-21-2020, 03:51 PM
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I still find the confidence levels of Trump voters to be mystifying. All the data is telling me the opposite and I'm still unable to be even the tiniest bit confident of a Biden victory.
  #314  
Old 04-21-2020, 03:59 PM
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Americans are dying at a rate of about 2000 per day and Trump spends his time bragging about ratings and shouting at the press. Christ.
  #315  
Old 04-21-2020, 04:03 PM
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Biden has had some recent ads, this one hits Trump for his feuds with the various governors.
That's a good ad. I don't know what it will actually take to reach the morons who put Trump in office. That one is an appeal to common sense and concsience, an uncertain way to have an effect on a Trump supporter.
  #316  
Old 04-21-2020, 05:21 PM
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I still find the confidence levels of Trump voters to be mystifying. All the data is telling me the opposite and I'm still unable to be even the tiniest bit confident of a Biden victory.
Yeah, seriously. Both Democrats AND Republicans seem to be really into predicting Republican landslides regardless of what the data say, and I find it one of the most fascinating and baffling cultural differences between the parties. My only guess is that Democrats have had more snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of-victory moments in recent history, but you would think that 2012 and 2018 would, at least, remind Republicans that defeat is a possibility.

I guess another possibility is that it's purely performative and Republicans, for some reason, think it's particularly important to appear confident on the Internet, but I'm not sure I understand why one party would be more likely to think that than the other.
  #317  
Old 04-21-2020, 05:37 PM
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I still find the confidence levels of Trump voters to be mystifying. All the data is telling me the opposite and I'm still unable to be even the tiniest bit confident of a Biden victory.
I think it's part of an overall strategy by Republicans to condition voters to the inevitability of a Trump win, even if such a "win" flies in the face of significant evidence that it is not legitimate. Just like 2016. They're big on 2016 strategies.

I'm really sick of people promoting this notion on the Democratic side. I expect it from Trump supporters. Not from non-Trump supporters. Cautious optimism is one thing. Throwing in the towel is another.

Last edited by Aspenglow; 04-21-2020 at 05:37 PM.
  #318  
Old 04-21-2020, 06:59 PM
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Older Americans sour on Trumpís handling of the outbreak: As President Donald Trump increasingly signals interest in prioritizing economic interests, Americaís senior citizens are growing critical of his approach.In mid-March, this group approved of Trumpís handling of the outbreak at a higher rate than any other age group, with a net approval of +19. A month later, that level of support has dropped 20 points and is now lower than that of any age group other than 18-29-year-olds.
Graph in the link below.

https://morningconsult.com/form/coro...break-tracker/

NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll out over the weekend:

Quote:
Nearly 60 percent of American voters say they are more concerned that relaxing stay-at-home restrictions would lead to more COVID-19 deaths than they are that the restrictions will hurt the U.S. economy, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But while strong majorities of Democrats and independents are more worried about the coronavirus than the economy, Republicans are divided on the question, with almost half of them more concerned about how the restrictions could affect the economy.

The poll also finds a significant change in attitudes about the coronavirus. The percentage of voters saying they're worried that a family member might catch it has increased by 20 points since last month's survey.

And those saying the coronavirus has changed their families' day-to-day lives in a major way has jumped by more than 50 points from the March NBC News/WSJ poll.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/mee...virus-n1187011

  • 77 percent of Democratic respondents and 57 percent of independents are more worried about the coronavirus than the economy, Republicans are divided ó with 48 percent expressing more concern about the economy and 39 percent more worried about the coronavirus.
  • 44 percent of voters say they approve of Trump's handling of the coronavirus, while 52 percent disapprove.
  • That's essentially unchanged from March, when 45 percent gave the president a thumbs-up and 51 percent gave him a thumbs-down.
  • In the race for the White House, the NBC News/WSJ poll shows Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points nationally among registered voters, 49 percent to 42 percent.
  • Biden also leads Trump by 9 points on which candidate would better handle a crisis (47 percent to 38 percent) and by 9 points on who would better handle the coronavirus (45 percent to 36 percent).
  • But Trump leads Biden by 11 points on which candidate would better handle the economy (47 percent to 36 percent).

A dilemma for Joe Biden according to that poll is while far fewer distrust him (Trump is +23 on that scale), more than 40% of responders are not aware of what he has been doing as response to Covid-19. Now obviously he does not hold office therefore has no day to day responsibility or power to do anything. He can talk in the background with experts and governors/mayors but they are the ones who are in charge, not him. But more to the point this illustrates a bubble that people like me am firmly in. I am aware that Biden has been doing frequent online live streams talking about it with healthcare experts, the ex Surgeon General, Bernie Sanders and the Obama Administration's man in charge of the Ebola outbreak response (Ron Klain). Because I follow his page. And I've seen him on TV interviews. But the average person is not spending their lockdown time to seek this out because ... there is more to life than politics . Trump's briefings on TV however is reaching millions of people who aren't online and who aren't political because a) they're daily and b) they get their own time slot because he's the president and therefore his people orchestrate it. They have the bully pulpit. They call the shots.

Whereas when Biden is doing TV interviews he's appearing on someone's show. The dilemma is if Biden is still more trusted despite not being anywhere as visible, can a lengthy time slot on cable news where he can provide a shadow response to Trump's briefings by outlining his plan of action and just talk for say, 45 minutes to an hour with questions after further extend that lead? Or is that bad politics to a) make it an election issue and b) stand on the toes of a governor or mayor who needs the air time to provide updates.
  #319  
Old 04-21-2020, 11:27 PM
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I think it's part of an overall strategy by Republicans to condition voters to the inevitability of a Trump win, even if such a "win" flies in the face of significant evidence that it is not legitimate. Just like 2016. They're big on 2016 strategies.

I'm really sick of people promoting this notion on the Democratic side. I expect it from Trump supporters. Not from non-Trump supporters. Cautious optimism is one thing. Throwing in the towel is another.

Cosigned.
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  #320  
Old 04-22-2020, 08:36 AM
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Americans are dying at a rate of about 2000 per day and Trump spends his time bragging about ratings and shouting at the press. Christ.
He is mighty proud of his ratings, but somebody should tell him that the best ratings and biggest crowd EVER would be for his funeral. That might give him ideas.
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
[...]
Magic ain't real. Some things we can rule out.
[...]
Oh dear! And I was so full of hope that somebody would pull a mighty Expelliarmus! during his usual press room Avada COVIDra ranting spell!
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  #321  
Old 04-22-2020, 08:55 AM
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I'm really sick of people promoting this notion on the Democratic side. I expect it from Trump supporters. Not from non-Trump supporters. Cautious optimism is one thing. Throwing in the towel is another.
It's understandable. To me, Trump's victory in 2016 felt like 9/11. The horror may happen again, but I won't allow myself to be shocked by it.

But you're right, that's no excuse for throwing in the towel.
  #322  
Old 04-22-2020, 01:05 PM
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Trump has given this country the greatest economy of all time.
What are you, FOX News in reverse? Trump says something and you repeat it verbatim the next day.

SAD!
  #323  
Old 04-22-2020, 01:39 PM
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He's already been banned, dude.
  #324  
Old 04-22-2020, 03:46 PM
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It's understandable. To me, Trump's victory in 2016 felt like 9/11. The horror may happen again, but I won't allow myself to be shocked by it.

But you're right, that's no excuse for throwing in the towel.
I think there were a lot of complacent Democrats in 2016. And Iím willing to bet there were some that were so complacent that they didnít make it to the polls that year, just because they figured she had it locked up, so why bother.

So, no matter how good the polling ends up looking for Biden, Iím not letting myself get too optimistic. Optimism leads to complacency.

Iíve been picking up on a lot of things anecdotally that make me think that Biden can beat Trump. My good old boy financial advisor that excitedly told me that he thought Biden would be unstoppable with the right VP. My distant cousins in rural KY that gave me some surprising ďlikesĒ on an anti-Trump FB post. Plus I donít think anyone I know that voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him this year.

And the fact that I donít see Trump moderating his message in any way that might broaden his base.

But Iím not going to get optimistic.
  #325  
Old 04-22-2020, 06:08 PM
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And the fact that I don’t see Trump moderating his message in any way that might broaden his base.
He's targeting (male) African Americans, I know, though I don't know what his message to them is.

And I would say that between making an outreach past your base or not, trying is better than not.

I know who Trump is going for. Has Biden tried to go anywhere that he's not already welcome?

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-22-2020 at 06:08 PM.
  #326  
Old 04-22-2020, 06:48 PM
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That's pretty awful. It's not surprising, though. Liberals are haters. Liberal Democrats are haters.

Trump has given this country the greatest economy of all time, with ZERO help from the Democrats. He is going to be reelected in a landslide. Even if the Democrats had someone who was electable, it's not going to be even close.

You know that. It's why you hate him and you're glad those people are dead.

Awful.
Wow.
He came and went so fast I didn't even have a chance to see this...
  #327  
Old 04-22-2020, 08:32 PM
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He's targeting (male) African Americans, I know, though I don't know what his message to them is.

And I would say that between making an outreach past your base or not, trying is better than not.

I know who Trump is going for. Has Biden tried to go anywhere that he's not already welcome?
I don’t see evidence that he’s going any where at all- or doing anything at all -which is maddening. I haven’t seen any Biden ads on TV since the primary at all. I know we’re in the middle of a national crisis and all, but everyone’s at home captive to their TV screens, and Trump’s holding a two hour rally every day. He needs to show up.

Interestingly, I have seen a couple of really harsh anti-Trump commercials run by super-PAC’s - and when I look up the PAC’s they are Republican never-Trump groups. I don’t really get it, but at least someone’s running the ads that should be running.


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Originally Posted by John DiFool View Post
Biden has had some recent ads, this one hits Trump for his feuds with the various governors.
Yeah, it really needs to be seen. Too bad they haven’t actually run it on TV anywhere, it’s noted in your cite that they haven’t put any money behind it yet, but may start ad buys for it soon. The Biden campaign needs to wake up.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 04-22-2020 at 08:34 PM.
  #328  
Old 04-22-2020, 08:54 PM
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I donít see evidence that heís going any where at all- or doing anything at all -which is maddening. I havenít seen any Biden ads on TV since the primary at all. I know weíre in the middle of a national crisis and all, but everyoneís at home captive to their TV screens, and Trumpís holding a two hour rally every day. He needs to show up.

Interestingly, I have seen a couple of really harsh anti-Trump commercials run by super-PACís - and when I look up the PACís they are Republican never-Trump groups. I donít really get it, but at least someoneís running the ads that should be running.




Yeah, it really needs to be seen. Too bad they havenít actually run it on TV anywhere, itís noted in your cite that they havenít put any money behind it yet, but may start ad buys for it soon. The Biden campaign needs to wake up.

Thing is, Trump's numbers continue to slide, and polls continue to show Biden up. And not just up nationally, but up in very specific, important states like Florida (sorry, can't link right now on my phone). Why waste money attacking when Trump's slitting his own throat?
  #329  
Old 04-22-2020, 09:09 PM
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Thing is, Trump's numbers continue to slide, and polls continue to show Biden up. And not just up nationally, but up in very specific, important states like Florida (sorry, can't link right now on my phone). Why waste money attacking when Trump's slitting his own throat?
Exactly. Those wonderful ads are currently targeted only in swing states. Not needed elsewhere at the moment.

Biden now has the best strategists in the country working on his behalf. Both Democrats and Republicans. That super-PAC comprised of never-Trumpers? It includes Rick Wilson and Steve Schmidt, both top former Republican strategists. I wouldn't presume to second guess them on how/where those ads are best targeted.
  #330  
Old 04-23-2020, 12:53 PM
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Predicted risk of different areas of the map:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-from-covid-19

I can't see the article, beyond the image, but it seems to imply that they're using age and population density to make the determination.
  #331  
Old 04-23-2020, 02:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
Predicted risk of different areas of the map:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...-from-covid-19

I can't see the article, beyond the image, but it seems to imply that they're using age and population density to make the determination.
Mostly correlation with poor health and few hospitals:

Quote:
If covid-19 does infect most Americans, the highest death rates will probably not be in coastal citiesówhose density is offset by young, healthy, well-off populations and good hospitalsóbut rather in poor, rural parts of the South and Appalachia with high rates of heart disease and diabetes.
  #332  
Old 04-23-2020, 04:45 PM
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I admit I don’t have a cite for this, but I have a strong hunch that the best way to get maximum turnout is not pessimism but cautious and determined optimism. People like to rally behind someone they think can win, and jump on the bandwagon.
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  #333  
Old 04-23-2020, 04:55 PM
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I admit I donít have a cite for this, but I have a strong hunch that the best way to get maximum turnout is not pessimism but cautious and determined optimism. People like to rally behind someone they think can win, and jump on the bandwagon.
The best way to get good turnout is to be a good candidate.
  #334  
Old 04-24-2020, 09:17 AM
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Since the "Trump will get reelected" thread is closed, I'll put this here.

Trumpís Plan to Save His Presidency
As he navigates the political fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, heís leaning into a strategy that worked for him four years ago.
Quote:
Two key forces that drove Donald Trumpís election victory in 2016 were the cult of personality he attracted and a hard-edged nationalist message. There is no sign that his core followers will ever abandon him. But the Ever Trumpers wonít be enough to win him reelection amid a historic crisis that a majority of the country feels heís bungled. Trump needs to reach some band of the electorate still amenable to voting for him, with some argument these voters might find persuasive. Telling the world heís blameless night after night doesnít seem to be working.

As his approval ratings drop, Trump has been leaning into the blunt economic-nationalist argument that helped get him to the White House, betting that itís compelling enough to keep him there. He now says he would consider punitive action against China, where the virus originated, after spending much of January and February showering praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping. ...

When it comes to the president, most people are dug in. They want him gone, or they admire him more than Abraham Lincoln. Tucked into the divide, though, is some small group still open to hearing what he has to say. Republican pollsters say theyíve spotted these voters in their research. Neil Newhouse, who has polled for four different Republican presidential campaigns, told me about a survey his firm conducted last year showing that, of the voters who disapproved of Trumpís job performance, 36 percent said they liked some of his policies and some actions that he took. Thatís the prize. Theyíre the voters Trump can target with an economic-nationalist position that may seem more relevant in the time of COVID-19, Newhouse and other Trump allies told me.

ďAn issue like thisónationalismócould come into play. They may not like everything heís doing, but they like the way heís standing up to China,Ē Newhouse said. John McLaughlin, a Trump pollster who has also worked for dozens of Republican congressional and presidential candidates over the years, echoed that notion. ďThere are some that may not like his style, but support his policies, and in particular, his economic-nationalist argument,Ē he told me. ďThatís the persuadable middle. Thatís where the votes are.Ē
....
My bold.

These are the people who find him personally repugnant, but they will hold their noses and vote for him because he hates the people they hate.
  #335  
Old 04-24-2020, 06:48 PM
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Good Frank Bruni column today in the NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/o...e=articleShare
Quote:
“And he’s going to get re-elected.”
Not a day goes by without several friends — Republicans as well as Democrats — saying that to me. It’s the blunt coda to a bloated recitation of Donald Trump’s failures during this pandemic. It’s a whimper of surrender following a scream of disbelief.[...]

With that refrain we perform a spiritual prophylaxis. We prepare for despair.
But somewhere along the way, we started to confuse a coping mechanism with reasoned analysis. We began to treat a verbal tic as inevitable truth.[...]

Maybe a toasty beam of sunlight is all that we need to wipe out the coronavirus? What if we just injected disinfectant into our veins? He floated both of those fantasies on Thursday, when he might as well have stepped up to the lectern in a tin foil hat. They’re the ramblings of a dejected, disoriented and increasingly desperate man.[...]

He can read the polls as well as the rest of us can, and they show that while he stands there nightly in the White House briefing room and blows kisses at himself, Americans aren’t blowing kisses back.[...]

He’s Houdini, he’s Scheherazade, he’s all the escape artists of history and fiction rolled into one and swirled with golden-orange topping. He’s lucky beyond all imagining. But here’s the thing about luck: It runs out.

Last edited by SlackerInc; 04-24-2020 at 06:48 PM.
  #336  
Old 04-24-2020, 07:32 PM
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Good Frank Bruni column today in the NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/o...e=articleShare
It's a great opinion piece. He mentions the work of two of his colleagues about the GOP plan to try to portray Biden as China's stooge---a plan that took a hit today with the news that Trump is in hock in a major way to the Chinese state bank*.

But the bit that stood out to me--though Bruni moved away from it quickly into a list of Trump's current weaknesses--was this:

Quote:
ďAnd heís going to get re-elected.Ē
Not a day goes by without several friends ó Republicans as well as Democrats ó saying that to me. Itís the blunt coda to a bloated recitation of Donald Trumpís failures during this pandemic. Itís a whimper of surrender following a scream of disbelief.[...]

With that refrain we perform a spiritual prophylaxis. We prepare for despair.
This urge to prepare for disappointment is a tremendous temptation. We don't want to be seen as being foolishly, naively optimistic--so we over-correct into cynicism. And as Bruni says, we want to fend off the wrenching pain of the potential event of Trump remaining in the White House for months or years to come. "We prepare for despair."

He's right, I think. And we need to try to stop doing this. We don't need to consider an endless Trumpian future to be inevitable.



*https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...na-debt-report
  #337  
Old 04-25-2020, 09:34 AM
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Since the "Trump will get reelected" thread is closed, I'll put this here.



Trump’s Plan to Save His Presidency

As he navigates the political fallout of the coronavirus pandemic, he’s leaning into a strategy that worked for him four years ago.
My bold.



These are the people who find him personally repugnant, but they will hold their noses and vote for him because he hates the people they hate.
Of course. I think this has been evident all along.

But Trump's campaigners know that margin could be surpassed by a strong Democratic turnout, so they are going to take advantage of his incumbency to do every thing they can to distort the election, probably doing something that is illegal. It won't be exposed until after he's back in office so no one will do anything about it.

It's a pattern now.
  #338  
Old 04-25-2020, 12:45 PM
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Are the Secret Service presidential protection detail vetted to screen out any with COVID-infected family? Such may be unreliable protectors. If Sis or Dad injected bleach because POTUS said to, the guard may feel disaffected. Can't have disaffected guards around, can we?
  #339  
Old 04-29-2020, 11:49 AM
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Why Trump Was Deaf to All the Warnings He Received
The presidentís incuriosity and paranoia hobbled his response.
Quote:
...
ďThere has been so much unnecessary death in this country,Ē President Donald Trump said Monday at his daily coronavirus briefing. ďIt could have been stopped and it could have been stopped short, but somebody a long time ago, it seems, decided not to do it that way. And the whole world is suffering because of it.Ē

The remark is classic Trumpówarning darkly but vaguely about unidentified enemiesóbut insofar as anyone made such a decision, it was the president himself. The virus is not, of course, Trumpís fault, but the federal governmentís handling of the outbreak is his responsibility. And one of the more astonishing revelations of the past month has been not just that the president was warned, but that he was warned over and over again and still declined to act.

The Washington Post reports that the Presidentís Daily Brief, or PDB, an intelligence report on national-security threats, mentioned the coronavirus ďmore than a dozenĒ times in January and February, a period during which the Trump administration was doing little to prepare for a pandemic, and when the president himself was often downplaying the threat the virus posed to the United States. The oversight would come as a surprise if not for the long line of warnings that the president is known to have ignored.
...
My bold.

Isn't the "President's Daily Brief" that document that his staff had to keep dumbing down until it was just one page and even then he STILL couldn't be bothered to read it?
  #340  
Old 04-29-2020, 04:28 PM
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Why Trump Was Deaf to All the Warnings He Received

The president’s incuriosity and paranoia hobbled his response.
My bold.



Isn't the "President's Daily Brief" that document that his staff had to keep dumbing down until it was just one page and even then he STILL couldn't be bothered to read it?
It's pretty much axiomatic that whatever accusations Trump makes are precisely what he himself is doing or has done. It's his first line of knee-jerk bullshit cover-up. He does it automatically--robotically and utterly transparently.
  #341  
Old 04-29-2020, 04:34 PM
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Trump erupts at campaign manager as reelection stress overflows
Quote:
As he huddled with advisers on Friday evening, President Donald Trump was still fuming over his sliding poll numbers and the onslaught of criticism he was facing for suggesting a day earlier that ingesting disinfectant might prove effective against coronavirus.
Within moments, the President was shouting -- not at the aides in the room, but into the phone -- at his campaign manager Brad Parscale, three people familiar with the matter told CNN. Shifting the blame away from himself, Trump berated Parscale for a recent spate of damaging poll numbers, even at one point threatening to sue Parscale. It's not clear how serious the President's threat of a lawsuit was.
The White House did not immediately respond to a CNN request for comment and the Trump campaign declined to comment.
  #342  
Old 04-29-2020, 05:18 PM
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Originally Posted by running coach View Post
The president sues his campaign manager... yeah, that's totally sane.
  #343  
Old 04-29-2020, 05:20 PM
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Ah yes. Doesn't matter if it's increasing coronavirus infections or decreasing poll numbers, it must always be someone else's fault.
  #344  
Old 04-29-2020, 05:36 PM
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That story sounds too good to be true.
  #345  
Old 04-29-2020, 06:08 PM
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Right?
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  #346  
Old 04-29-2020, 06:18 PM
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That story sounds too good to be true.
Many stories come directly from Team Trump, trying to project how tough he is on people and to try and scare his side into coming out to vote.

The whole story about Trump yelling at Boris Johnson, for example, was purely pro-Trump propaganda that they successfully foisted onto CNN. Both before and after, Trump was bending over backwards to let Huawei go free.

Whether this one is in that bucket or not, I couldn't say, but it's suspicious that you would have a leak by three people at the core of the Trump campaign strategizing group.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-29-2020 at 06:19 PM.
  #347  
Old 05-06-2020, 01:04 PM
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This made me happy.

New polling shows warning signs for GOP-held Senate seats
Quote:
A raft of new polls from states with competitive Senate races shows momentum veering away from Republican incumbents at a time when doubts are also growing about President Trumpís re-election prospects.

The big picture: To win control of the Senate, Democrats likely will have to flip five of eight competitive seats with a Republican incumbent. Of the six races with recent polling, Democrats lead in five and trail by just one point in the other.
...
There's a bit more info at the non-paywalled link.

This is now my favorite picture of that hateful Mitch McConnell. If When he gets voted out, it needs to go on a t-shirt with the caption, "Wha' happened??"

Damn, he is one ugly bastard, inside and out.
  #348  
Old 05-07-2020, 01:22 AM
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Good stuff!
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  #349  
Old 05-09-2020, 11:18 AM
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Never let a good Crisis go to Waste


https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/717...to-go-to-waste
  #350  
Old 05-15-2020, 05:53 AM
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Reasons why some Iowa voters plan to vote for DJT again.

Focus group: Why the coronavirus is keeping some Iowans with Trump
Quote:
...
There's a sense among these voters that Trump is managing about as well as any other president would.
  • "I canít blame him. He was listening to leaders and advisers and he was making the best decision he knew at that point," said Teresa J. "To blame him serves no purpose. He did what he felt was best with the information available."
  • "Iíd like to see Trump have another run at it," she added. Teresa did say she wishes Trump would have "encouraged states to shut down and get a handle on this" sooner.
  • Even when confronted with the unemployment numbers ó over 36 million have filed jobless claims in the past two months ó and the declining economy, these voters feel Trump isn't responsible.
  • "You canít blame Trump for the unemployment rate because of the COVID-19. You canít blame him for the COVID-19," said Joe W. "Iím still a supporter and I feel like Trump can put us back to where we need to be."
    ...
This was only one focus group, but it gives you an idea of how someone can rationalize voting for him again. They realize that he's presiding ineptly over a mess but figure it's not his fault and that no one else would do any better.

The people in this particular group did not watch national news, but got their news from local sources and from their governor. Most of them didn't know one single thing about Biden and had never heard a word out of him. I presume this also means they aren't aware of world news and how other countries have handled the CV crisis better.

This comment blows my mind: "Iíd like to see Trump have another run at it..." Yeah, let's give the captain who sank the ship another ship and see how he does.

Voters who think like this can definitely get him re-elected.
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