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  #51  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:23 AM
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ŅPorque no los dos?
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  #52  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Pantastic View Post
Remember, getting people to say "Ugh, they both suck" is the ideal strategy for Trump, so just pointing out that Trump sucks isn't likely to work. If the campaign ends up being about 'look, I'm not Donald Trump and he sucks' instead of 'here's why I'm a great leader and you should vote for me' I predict another red victory.
I don't disagree. I was being a bit hyperbolic when I said that should be Biden's only talking point -- he should absolutely describe what a real leader should have done and clearly outline what he will do starting Jan 20, 2021.
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Old 04-01-2020, 10:15 AM
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Joe "This is a really big fucking deal!" Biden? That Biden?
From Biden's campaign website:
ďWhen we passed the Affordable Care Act, I told President Obama it was a big deal Ė or something to that effect.Ē
ó Joe Biden in Dubuque, Iowa, April 30, 2019
https://joebiden.com/healthcare/

I didn't read the full text on Biden's healthcare plan, but it seems reasonably centre-left. At least he's not trying to nationalise the US healthcare system. A public health insurance option, tax credits, elimination of price protections and increased competition for prescription drugs, and increased funding for community healthcare centres all seem to hit the right note. There's some other stuff there that I could quibble about, but Biden's still in primary season. If he focuses on the above highlights, I do think it will be a decent November election message. And, especially now, I think any election candidate has to have a public healthcare message. It's the most prominent current issue for nearly everyone.
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Old 04-01-2020, 11:06 AM
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From Biden's campaign website:
ďWhen we passed the Affordable Care Act, I told President Obama it was a big deal Ė or something to that effect.Ē
ó Joe Biden in Dubuque, Iowa, April 30, 2019
https://joebiden.com/healthcare/

I didn't read the full text on Biden's healthcare plan, but it seems reasonably centre-left. At least he's not trying to nationalise the US healthcare system. A public health insurance option, tax credits, elimination of price protections and increased competition for prescription drugs, and increased funding for community healthcare centres all seem to hit the right note. There's some other stuff there that I could quibble about, but Biden's still in primary season. If he focuses on the above highlights, I do think it will be a decent November election message. And, especially now, I think any election candidate has to have a public healthcare message. It's the most prominent current issue for nearly everyone.
My point was that ACA was viewed very much like a Big State policy and was (still is) fought tooth and nail by Republicans of all stripes. So I'm not sure I understood you right. Should Biden be seen as pushing a big state issue like healthcare, or internet access, among other large initiatives, or not?
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  #55  
Old 04-01-2020, 01:26 PM
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My point was that ACA was viewed very much like a Big State policy and was (still is) fought tooth and nail by Republicans of all stripes. So I'm not sure I understood you right. Should Biden be seen as pushing a big state issue like healthcare, or internet access, among other large initiatives, or not?
In terms of election strategy, I don't think Biden should walk away from the ACA. He's indelibly identified with it and retreating from it would turn into a rout. So he should look for the best way of selling it, or some alternate version of it, to the key demographic sectors of the US electorate that he needs to win. The demographic sector I believe he most needs to win is blue-collar workers. I'm not going to pretend like I have any type of expertise on US blue-collar opinions. But on a superficial level, a package of a public health insurance option, tax credits, elimination of price protections and increased competition for prescription drugs, and increased funding for community healthcare centres strikes me as a pretty good sales pitch.

In my opinion, I don't think Biden should propose any new big-state initiatives, especially ones that can be construed as handouts. I just browsed around a bit more, and I noticed that yesterday Biden proposed making "public colleges and universities tuition-free for all families with incomes below $125,000" and came out for student loans debt relief. So obviously the Biden camp doesn't agree with me. Go figure.

I'll also note that I acknowledge tax credits are a form of government handout. However, I don't think they're perceived that way. The government is asking taxpayers to spend money on a specific thing, and letting them know they won't be taxed on the income they spent for that thing. That's different from a direct payment or a direct service. They're both government benefits. However, I think they're different enough that the general societal perception of them isn't the same.
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Old 04-12-2020, 07:20 PM
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How's this for starters?

Opinion
Joe Biden: My Plan to Safely Reopen America
An effective strategy to beat the virus is the ultimate answer to how we get our economy back on track.
Quote:
By Joe Biden
Mr. Biden is the presumptive Democratic nominee for president.
April 12, 2020

People across America are stepping up to the plate. Millions are performing essential services at great personal risk, and millions more are staying at home, away from friends and extended family. In return, they want the answer to a simple question: What is the plan to safely reopen America?

So far, the Trump administration hasnít supplied an answer.

The plan has to start with responding effectively to the immediate medical crisis and ultimately lead to the widespread availability and administration of a vaccine.
...

First, we have to get the number of new cases of the disease down significantly. That means social distancing has to continue and the people on the front lines have to get the supplies and equipment they need.
...

Second, there needs to be widespread, easily available and prompt testing ó and a contact tracing strategy that protects privacy.
...

Third, we have to make sure that our hospitals and health care system are ready for flare-ups of the disease that may occur when economic activity expands again.
...

Make no mistake: An effective plan to beat the virus is the ultimate answer to how we get our economy back on track. So we should stop thinking of the health and economic responses as separate. They are not.
...

As long as there is a significant risk that the virus can start spreading again, we are going to have to do some things differently. And the federal government should be leading the effort to figure that out.

If I were president, I would convene top experts from the private sector, industry by industry, to come up with new ideas on how to operate more safely.
...

Likewise, I would direct the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, working with organized labor and employee groups, to figure out what protections workers need on the job during this period.
...

As we prepare to reopen America, we have to remember what this crisis has taught us: The administrationís failure to plan, to prepare, to honestly assess and communicate the threat to the nation led to catastrophic results. We cannot repeat those mistakes.

We know what we have to do. We have the tools, expertise and, now, hard-won experience. The American people have already paid too high a price in illness, death and economic loss. This time, the White House has to get it right.
My bold.

"Convene top experts"?? You mean people who claim to know more than the President? Nah. They just want to get on TV.
  #57  
Old 04-13-2020, 11:36 AM
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I don't see how this plan differs significantly from what we are doing already.
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We know what we have to do.
Actually, no we don't, which is presumably why Biden needs to meet with people to find out what we have to do.

OK, we need enough respirators and test kits, and be sure the ICUs aren't overcrowded, and we need a vaccine, and social distancing has to continue. That's certainly true. But does Biden have anything specific to speed any of that up?

When you are managing an urgent project, and this is an urgent project, just saying "we need to move faster" achieves nothing.

Regards,
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  #58  
Old 04-13-2020, 03:50 PM
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Biden should use images of white people in their cars and pickups in long lines at the food banks, images of bodies being loaded on trucks and mass burials, show in one slide how inept early response by Trump caused delay and confusion on what we needed to do and when (using his "hoax" comment) on a calendar, another slide can be unemployment claims exploding with boarded-up businesses, yet another can be video of Trump patting himself on the back as the death count numbers are spiraling, images of exhausted doctors and nurses, ambulances with sirens blaring, etc, etc.

There is a lot of material out there that can be used to hammer Trump. Not all of it needs to be directly his fault; this is a political campaign after all. But, it should be fairly straightforward to tie all of this together with the message "Trump's America: Not Great!".

Biden should explain what he would have done/do differently than Trump, but he also needs to go on the offensive directly with Trump voters, and I think the above imaging will get thru to them: Trump has been a disaster that everyone has felt, even them.
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Old 04-13-2020, 06:32 PM
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I know it's unbearable, but I hope that anyone who considers themselves a political animal is watching these White House press conferences if for no other reason than to stay abreast of how Trump is spinning the situation. And, frankly, I think it's working very well and will continue to work well. He continues to be petty and vindictive and relentlessly self-congratulatory, as in today's briefing, but he is successfully crafting a narrative that he WAS on top of this situation from the very beginning, that he was being reasonable and prudent by not "shutting down the economy" when it was supposedly too early to know that the virus was going to become as big of a problem as it is, yet was also vigilant with his travel restrictions. He's making a case that's going to be convincing to a hell of a lot of people.

All this is to say, that Biden NEEDS to get out there (on live streams) and rebut this narrative. If he doesn't aggressively push back on it, he is forfeiting the game.
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Old 05-15-2020, 10:10 AM
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Oh to return to those innocent days of mid-March when I started this thread... Before the tsunami of COVID engulfed the nation, the world, and the upcoming presidential election.

Headlines now are saying Biden's virtual campaign is a complete failure, a bust. He can't make himself heard above the din of pandemic. But even if he could, what should he be saying? Name-calling trump didn't do Hillary any good.

Bidenís Virtual Campaign Is a Disaster
The candidate has reached the peak of his career in the rec room of his basement, talking into a computer.
Quote:
...In none of his Zoom appearances does Joe Biden ever appear to be anything less than a happy man. Yet he is a happy man who has reached the peak of his career in the rec room of his basement, talking into a computer. The crisis has forced him into being only a simulation of a presidential candidate. It has done the same to his rival, of course, but the difference is, his rival gets to be president too.
That's the last paragraph of the article linked to.

Okay, so what SHOULD Biden be doing? What can he do? Trump is in every headline, every story, every sound bite-- for good or for ill (mostly the last), but "there's no such thing as bad publicity," right?

In an article I cited elsewhere today (in the thread about COVID ending the trump presidency-- which it, won't BTW), a focus group from Iowa didn't know Thing One about Biden because they only follow local news.

If the Tara Reade thing pulls the rug out from under Biden... <can't contemplate the results>
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Old 05-15-2020, 02:06 PM
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First, he needs to do SOMETHING. He needs a national media campaign and he needs it now. The entire nation is captive to their TV sets. Last night I was watching old sitcoms on an obscure high channel and I saw 3 Trump commercials within a 2 hour span. The number of Biden commercials Iíve seen on TV. Zero. None. Nada.

He needs a robust social media campaign. He also needs some better messaging.

The Democrats have better policies but they have absolutely no idea as to how to sell them beyond their bubble.
They need to tie their policy positions to a message of prosperity. Talk about how universal health care, immigration and more robust worker and environmental protections make our lives more productive and prosperous instead of expecting healthy people to care about strangers that canít afford their insulin.

He needs to start with vision of what he wants America to look like and sell it. All while using scenes of Trumpís America as contrast. Mostly, he needs a strategy to target first-time voters, which means making yourself visible to people that donít watch CNN. He also needs a bunch of Roger Stones and Karl Roves and dirty tricksters behind the scenes to counter the propaganda and fight fire with fire.

Seriously, heís so inept itís maddening. Itís like watching a Little League baseball team playing a MLB team in the World Series. No, actually itís like watching a little league baseball team playing an NFL team in the Super Bowl, because these guys are so inept they arenít even playing the game theyíre in.
  #62  
Old 05-15-2020, 02:11 PM
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Like it or not, this has turned into the Year of the Pandemic, and this election will be the Pandemic Election. Every other issue - LGBT, abortion, immigration, etc. - takes a back seat to Covid-19 this year.

Democrats are fortunate that Trump has gifted them by utterly blundering his handling of the virus, and what may be 200,000+ American deaths by the time November rolls around. Had he handled the crisis well it would be a much stronger hand for him, but this year that's all they have to run on - Covid, Covid, Covid - and it'll topple Trump.
  #63  
Old 05-15-2020, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Ann Hedonia View Post
First, he needs to do SOMETHING. He needs a national media campaign and he needs it now. The entire nation is captive to their TV sets. Last night I was watching old sitcoms on an obscure high channel and I saw 3 Trump commercials within a 2 hour span. The number of Biden commercials Iíve seen on TV. Zero. None. Nada.

He needs a robust social media campaign. He also needs some better messaging.
Not now, not yet. People are burning out on Trump's blathering. There's no need to make them sick of hearing Biden, too.

Right now, Biden's campaign should be building their ground organizations. Making plans with Democratic governors, senators, and representatives. And fund raising, of course.

This election will be entirely a referendum on Trump. Specific policies are only going to lose him votes. The pandemic gives him a great chance to reset his campaign to a general election strategy. Better to run on a simple "Character Matters", "I Work for You", "Safe and Sound", or similarly vague goal.
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:16 PM
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Keep it simple.

Talk in generic terms about stimulus and welfare - that's a much easier argument to make now. I don't care how philosophically opposed people say they are to "free money;" when they're facing an existential crisis, philosophy takes a backseat to an empty refrigerator and an empty bank account.
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:26 PM
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Not now, not yet. People are burning out on Trump's blathering. There's no need to make them sick of hearing Biden, too.

Right now, Biden's campaign should be building their ground organizations. Making plans with Democratic governors, senators, and representatives. And fund raising, of course.

This election will be entirely a referendum on Trump. Specific policies are only going to lose him votes. The pandemic gives him a great chance to reset his campaign to a general election strategy. Better to run on a simple "Character Matters", "I Work for You", "Safe and Sound", or similarly vague goal.
Gotta agree - Biden doesn't need to do anything right now. Let Trump be the center of the attention, and let it be a referendum on Trump's presidency. Biden doesn't even need to be charismatic or energetic, though it helps. I'm convinced that Obama succeeded in becoming the first non-white president in part because 2008 was viewed by many voters as a referendum on the Republican party, and they voted out the Rs in droves. I think Biden can win without even trying that hard - he just needs to not catch COVID-19. He should probably just live in a plastic bubble for a while.

I'm equally concerned not just about the presidency but the senate, particularly Mitch McConnell's seat. This is an opportunity to win senate seats and I hope it's not squandered. McConnell was only polling 3 points ahead of McGrath and that was back in February. I can't imagine his stature has improved in the time since. Keep in mind that Kentucky voted for a Dem governor last year, so there's a real chance McConnell could be defeated.
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Old 05-15-2020, 05:21 PM
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The Trump response to the pandemic has been incompetent. Perhaps that should be emphasized by Biden's campaign.
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Old 05-15-2020, 05:26 PM
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The Trump response to the pandemic has been incompetent. Perhaps that should be emphasized by Biden's campaign.
Biden must say this, of course, but trashing trump did not help Hillary at all. Biden has to say how he would be different and better. How the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT would be better and different. He has to run on more than being not-trump.

As others have said, maybe it's too early to start pushing a specific message, but Biden certainly has to get his face out there. The focus group (I know: it was just one focus group) from Iowa that I cited in the "CV will finish trump" thread basically didn't know anything about trump. Some of those people said trump was doing as well as anybody else would have, and "give him a chance to make good," and other BS like that. But there are people who feel that way and don't know Biden from a hole in the ground.
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Old 05-15-2020, 05:47 PM
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I'm equally concerned not just about the presidency but the senate, particularly Mitch McConnell's seat. This is an opportunity to win senate seats and I hope it's not squandered. McConnell was only polling 3 points ahead of McGrath and that was back in February. I can't imagine his stature has improved in the time since. Keep in mind that Kentucky voted for a Dem governor last year, so there's a real chance McConnell could be defeated.
Yes. Democrats need to take the Senate. I should amend my earlier opinion that Biden should be planning with Democratic governors, senators, and representatives. That needs to include candidates as well. We need coattails up and down the ballot.

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Biden must say this, of course, but trashing trump did not help Hillary at all. Biden has to say how he would be different and better. How the FEDERAL GOVERNMENT would be better and different. He has to run on more than being not-trump.
Biden doesn't need to and should not trash Trump. This is where the governors, senators, and representatives (current and candidates) come in: they should be trashing Trump and tying their opponents to him. Explain in great detail how Trump has been bad for their constituents. How their opponent wants to help Trump continue to do bad things. Show themselves with and helping Biden.

Biden needs to take the Obama vs Hillary campaign lessons to heart: simple lofty goals win elections and complicated details do not. I wish it weren't so, but that is the world we live in.
  #69  
Old 05-15-2020, 06:33 PM
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This:

"His disrespectful Covid response consisted of first pulling American scientists from the China region who were part of the already established pandemic plan, denies it will affect us, says it will go away, tries to make himself money by selling hydroxycloroquine, and when people realize it's more Trump-brand snake oil, he jokes about the thousands of deaths and ill-preparedness to the point of telling people to inject Lysol and drink bleach."

Think I'll send that to Joe's website.
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:34 PM
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I don't think that's a good idea at all, it plays right into the hands of the people who accuse us of spreading "fake news." Trump didn't actually tell anyone to consume poisonous chemicals - the fact that some idiots out there somehow interpreted his statements as such doesn't mean he actually said it. Some might say "oh, come on, he's such a horrible liar that it doesn't matter if we're 100% accurate with attributing stuff to him.." I disagree, I think it undermines critiques of him. That's just my opinion.
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Old 05-15-2020, 07:58 PM
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Keep it simple.

Talk in generic terms about stimulus and welfare - that's a much easier argument to make now. I don't care how philosophically opposed people say they are to "free money;" when they're facing an existential crisis, philosophy takes a backseat to an empty refrigerator and an empty bank account.
I was just talking about this with someone the other day. We'd both received our stimulus checks. "Now that people have actually experienced getting a direct infusion of money from the government, Andrew Yang could totally swoop back in and say 'remember when you got that stimulus check, how awesome it was?! Well, I'm going to make that happen again, and again, and again...vote for me!' and totally win the election." I was half-joking when I said it, but only half.

The truth is, a lot of people are really going to appreciate these stimulus checks, and now that they've had a taste of free money from the government, they are not going to want to go back. Now that it is no longer a theoretical abstraction but a reality, a candidate could win the election by just promising to give more money and sound extremely convincing while doing it.
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Old 05-16-2020, 04:43 AM
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Like it or not, this has turned into the Year of the Pandemic, and this election will be the Pandemic Election. Every other issue - LGBT, abortion, immigration, etc. - takes a back seat to Covid-19 this year.
I disagree. I don't think the majority of the people are concerned about COVID at all, except how it has inconvenienced them, and certainly won't be by November.

The media has gone crazy over it, for three reasons. First, because their main goal is always to push liberal views and support the Democrat party, and they think this will help get a Democrat elected in November. Second, because they overhype everything. Drama and crisis sells ad space. Third, because they are mostly based in New York, where COVID is worse than anywhere else, and they can't or won't look past what they see in their immediate area.

But most people aren't really buying the hype. They see that the "lockdowns" have been essentially meaningless. Everyone has been out and about the whole time, going to Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot, liquor stores, etc. They see very few or no cases in their local areas, and don't see any reason why their bars and barbershops shouldn't be open now.

Most people are just ready for everything to open back up, and that is happening. By November this "crisis" will be history and the majority of the voters will have forgotten about it. Most of them are over it already.
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Old 05-16-2020, 08:18 AM
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I was just talking about this with someone the other day. We'd both received our stimulus checks. "Now that people have actually experienced getting a direct infusion of money from the government, Andrew Yang could totally swoop back in and say 'remember when you got that stimulus check, how awesome it was?! Well, I'm going to make that happen again, and again, and again...vote for me!' and totally win the election." I was half-joking when I said it, but only half.

The truth is, a lot of people are really going to appreciate these stimulus checks, and now that they've had a taste of free money from the government, they are not going to want to go back. Now that it is no longer a theoretical abstraction but a reality, a candidate could win the election by just promising to give more money and sound extremely convincing while doing it.
Timing is everything. It's the situation more than the person.

There's a golden opportunity for Dems and especially for Joe Biden in the sense that Republicans are eventually going to put their foot down and argue that we should stop spending money and if we're still in this situation 3-4 months from now, people of all stripes are going to tell them to stuff it. Biden probably doesn't have to go full-on socialist; he just needs to move a little further to the left than where he is now and he needs to commit to that message. No need to get into specifics.
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Old 05-16-2020, 08:24 AM
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Trump trying to tie Biden to China. In a few weeks he will probably say Biden invented the virus in China.
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Old 05-16-2020, 09:32 AM
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Trump trying to tie Biden to China. In a few weeks he will probably say Biden invented the virus in China.
Yeah I don't see him getting anywhere with that claim. However, there is always the very real possibility that a campaign against globalization and immigration might work.

Trump's problem is that his response to the pandemic is not necessarily going to be covered up by a xenophobic campaign. There's growing evidence that people are differentiating between things they don't like about China, immigration, and globalization on one hand, and Trump's pandemic response on the other.

To that end, I won't be surprised if there's a misinformation campaign to promote conspiracy theories about the virus and Democrats' response, and it's possible that it could work. Suppose, for instance, Trump wants to push conspiracy theories suggesting that Democrats are deliberately trying to spread coronavirus to shut down industries and take them over. The "government is coming for you" conspiracy theories are the most dangerous ones, and I think we will see them - and it will get ugly.
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Old 05-16-2020, 11:06 AM
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...To that end, I won't be surprised if there's a misinformation campaign to promote conspiracy theories about the virus and Democrats' response, and it's possible that it could work. Suppose, for instance, Trump wants to push conspiracy theories suggesting that Democrats are deliberately trying to spread coronavirus to shut down industries and take them over. The "government is coming for you" conspiracy theories are the most dangerous ones, and I think we will see them - and it will get ugly.
IMHO this is a certainty.
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Old 05-16-2020, 01:21 PM
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Not now, not yet. People are burning out on Trump's blathering. There's no need to make them sick of hearing Biden, too.

Right now, Biden's campaign should be building their ground organizations. Making plans with Democratic governors, senators, and representatives. And fund raising, of course.

This election will be entirely a referendum on Trump. Specific policies are only going to lose him votes. The pandemic gives him a great chance to reset his campaign to a general election strategy. Better to run on a simple "Character Matters", "I Work for You", "Safe and Sound", or similarly vague goal.
The people I know online feel this way. The people I know in real life, the apolitical ones, really donít keep up with what Trump is up to. But they do watch the ads served up during American Idol and Law and Order reruns.

I see Trumpís robust social media campaign working. I see my nephews friends and coworkers reaping reward points for getting their friends to text Trump. I see people that donít follow politics disbelieving real information and buying into the Republican narrative. People out in the real world are blaming the Democrats and not Trump for the coronavirus response. All this wonderful and accurate reporting on the abject failure of the coronavirus response and the trashing of the rule of law isnít reaching anyone that needs to see it. But the endless Trump ads are.

Heís winning, heís kicking our asses right now. His campaign knows what theyíre doing and theyíre laughing their asses off at whatís going on inside the liberal bubble. Itís heartbreaking. Iím going to place a huge bet on Trump on one of the prediction sites. Thousands of dollars. That way if he wins, and he probably will, Iíll get a huge sum of money that will prevent me from literally going suicidal. If he loses, Iíll be so happy I wonít care that I lost 5K or so. Itís the only why I can survive the upcoming trainwreck that is a November.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 05-16-2020 at 01:23 PM.
  #78  
Old 05-16-2020, 01:42 PM
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Iím going to place a huge bet on Trump on one of the prediction sites. Thousands of dollars. That way if he wins, and he probably will, Iíll get a huge sum of money that will prevent me from literally going suicidal. If he loses, Iíll be so happy I wonít care that I lost 5K or so. Itís the only why I can survive the upcoming trainwreck that is a November.
This is how I used to gamble on sports. I'd bet against my favorite team so that I get a win-win either way: Either my team wins, or I earn money. It's akin to buying insurance on your team.
  #79  
Old 05-17-2020, 07:35 AM
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I disagree. I don't think the majority of the people are concerned about COVID at all, except how it has inconvenienced them, and certainly won't be by November.

The media has gone crazy over it, for three reasons. First, because their main goal is always to push liberal views and support the Democrat party, and they think this will help get a Democrat elected in November. Second, because they overhype everything. Drama and crisis sells ad space. Third, because they are mostly based in New York, where COVID is worse than anywhere else, and they can't or won't look past what they see in their immediate area.

But most people aren't really buying the hype. They see that the "lockdowns" have been essentially meaningless. Everyone has been out and about the whole time, going to Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot, liquor stores, etc. They see very few or no cases in their local areas, and don't see any reason why their bars and barbershops shouldn't be open now.

Most people are just ready for everything to open back up, and that is happening. By November this "crisis" will be history and the majority of the voters will have forgotten about it. Most of them are over it already.


Everyone needs to re-read this post. Because we're at the point where, no matter what plans they have, no matter if they go high or go low, no matter if they run on Trump's character or Biden's character, no matter if they trash Trump's record or explain how Biden would have done things differently, what their real winning strategy will be is "Just wait for things to get worse".

There are a lot of people like the above poster who haven't seen the problems hit them yet, and can't learn from the example of those who have been hit already. They don't appreciate the mathematics of a pandemic, all they can really understand is what they see in front of them. They're convinced it's all "Liberal hype" by people who "want to destroy the economy" or some such nonsense. So, they are going to re-open their neighborhoods, their cities, their states, no matter what anyone tells them.

It will only be after they can no longer deny that the predictions weren't "hype", that cases of COVID and deaths due to COVID actually did skyrocket just as predicted, that they will be able to see that they are wrong. And that's the only thing that might even possibly change their vote.
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Last edited by Horatius; 05-17-2020 at 07:37 AM.
  #80  
Old 05-17-2020, 09:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Horatius View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by faync1 View Post
I disagree. I don't think the majority of the people are concerned about COVID at all, except how it has inconvenienced them, and certainly won't be by November.

The media has gone crazy over it, for three reasons. First, because their main goal is always to push liberal views and support the Democrat party, and they think this will help get a Democrat elected in November. Second, because they overhype everything. Drama and crisis sells ad space. Third, because they are mostly based in New York, where COVID is worse than anywhere else, and they can't or won't look past what they see in their immediate area.

But most people aren't really buying the hype. They see that the "lockdowns" have been essentially meaningless. Everyone has been out and about the whole time, going to Walmart, Lowes, Home Depot, liquor stores, etc. They see very few or no cases in their local areas, and don't see any reason why their bars and barbershops shouldn't be open now.

Most people are just ready for everything to open back up, and that is happening. By November this "crisis" will be history and the majority of the voters will have forgotten about it. Most of them are over it already.
Everyone needs to re-read this post. Because we're at the point where, no matter what plans they have, no matter if they go high or go low, no matter if they run on Trump's character or Biden's character, no matter if they trash Trump's record or explain how Biden would have done things differently, what their real winning strategy will be is "Just wait for things to get worse".

There are a lot of people like the above poster who haven't seen the problems hit them yet, and can't learn from the example of those who have been hit already. They don't appreciate the mathematics of a pandemic, all they can really understand is what they see in front of them. They're convinced it's all "Liberal hype" by people who "want to destroy the economy" or some such nonsense. So, they are going to re-open their neighborhoods, their cities, their states, no matter what anyone tells them.

It will only be after they can no longer deny that the predictions weren't "hype", that cases of COVID and deaths due to COVID actually did skyrocket just as predicted, that they will be able to see that they are wrong. And that's the only thing that might even possibly change their vote.
You are absolutely correct.

Especially this part of faync1's post:
Quote:
...The media has gone crazy over it, for three reasons. First, because their main goal is always to push liberal views and support the Democrat party, and they think this will help get a Democrat elected in November. Second, because they overhype everything. Drama and crisis sells ad space. Third, because they are mostly based in New York, where COVID is worse than anywhere else, and they can't or won't look past what they see in their immediate area....
This is what the trump team is promoting. Although if it's not that serious and only affects New York City, why is trump getting tested every day and making everyone in the West Wing wear a mask? Sorry, I know logic doesn't work.



Horatius said: "It will only be after they can no longer deny that the predictions weren't "hype", that cases of COVID and deaths due to COVID actually did skyrocket just as predicted, that they will be able to see that they are wrong. And that's the only thing that might even possibly change their vote."

I have a feeling that even if COVID kills off everyone in their small-ish flyover town (including their mother in the nursing home), it will somehow still be the Dems' and the media's fault. Trump tried to stop it but the Bad Libruls were too bad to be stopped.

I truly do not know how a reasonable Biden fights this level of monumental ignorance and wrongheadedness. Becoming similarly unreasonable won't work.
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  #81  
Old 05-17-2020, 04:53 PM
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I truly do not know how a reasonable Biden fights this level of monumental ignorance and wrongheadedness. Becoming similarly unreasonable won't work.
He can't, which is why he will lose.

Only a candidate with sufficient personal charisma can carry the day in this situation, and Biden manifestly lacks it.
  #82  
Old 05-18-2020, 05:35 AM
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\"[I]t will only be after they can no longer deny that the predictions weren't "hype", that cases of COVID and deaths due to COVID actually did skyrocket just as predicted, that they will be able to see that they are wrong. And that's the only thing that might even possibly change their vote."

I have a feeling that even if COVID kills off everyone in their small-ish flyover town (including their mother in the nursing home), it will somehow still be the Dems' and the media's fault.
(A), I don't live in a "smallish flyover town." I live in Fayetteville, NC, with a population of over 500,000 in the metropolitan area (including Ft. Bragg).

(2), There is no reason why there should be some massive resurgence of COVID. I know you desperately want and need there to be one because you think it finally gives you something that will help defeat President Trump, but it (the resurgence) isn't going to happen. The virus has done most of what it is going to do. There might be a resurgence if the entire country was coming out of quarantine, but we are not. Many states had no formal stay-at-home orders, and ones that did have them, like mine, were only pretend; as I said earlier, people were out and about constantly the entire time, going to Walmart, home improvement stores, etc.

Finally, to the extent that people do remember, and vote based on, COVID, later, it won't affect President Trump; it will affect their governors and mayors. Most people do not see the actions or inactions of President Trump as affecting their day-to-day lives. It is their governors and mayors that closed their businesses, closed their nail and hair salons, closed their barbershops, closed their churches (but let the used-car lots and liquor stores stay open) long past when there was any hospital-space-based need for it. It is their governors and mayors that will get blamed for still not allowing these businesses to open now. They will get the brunt of voter wrath if any, not President Trump.
  #83  
Old 05-18-2020, 05:47 AM
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(A), I don't live in a "smallish flyover town." I live in Fayetteville, NC, with a population of over 500,000 in the metropolitan area (including Ft. Bragg).
Well then, I guess my remarks have nothing to do with you. But thanks for playing anyway.

Quote:
(2), There is no reason why there should be some massive resurgence of COVID. I know you desperately want and need there to be one because you think it finally gives you something that will help defeat President Trump, but it (the resurgence) isn't going to happen. The virus has done most of what it is going to do. There might be a resurgence if the entire country was coming out of quarantine, but we are not. Many states had no formal stay-at-home orders, and ones that did have them, like mine, were only pretend; as I said earlier, people were out and about constantly the entire time, going to Walmart, home improvement stores, etc.

Finally, to the extent that people do remember, and vote based on, COVID, later, it won't affect President Trump; it will affect their governors and mayors. Most people do not see the actions or inactions of President Trump as affecting their day-to-day lives. It is their governors and mayors that closed their businesses, closed their nail and hair salons, closed their barbershops, closed their churches (but let the used-car lots and liquor stores stay open) long past when there was any hospital-space-based need for it. It is their governors and mayors that will get blamed for still not allowing these businesses to open now. They will get the brunt of voter wrath if any, not President Trump.
Yes, I see.
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  #84  
Old 05-18-2020, 08:22 AM
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The people I know online feel this way. The people I know in real life, the apolitical ones, really donít keep up with what Trump is up to. But they do watch the ads served up during American Idol and Law and Order reruns.

I see Trumpís robust social media campaign working. I see my nephews friends and coworkers reaping reward points for getting their friends to text Trump. I see people that donít follow politics disbelieving real information and buying into the Republican narrative. People out in the real world are blaming the Democrats and not Trump for the coronavirus response. All this wonderful and accurate reporting on the abject failure of the coronavirus response and the trashing of the rule of law isnít reaching anyone that needs to see it. But the endless Trump ads are.

Heís winning, heís kicking our asses right now. His campaign knows what theyíre doing and theyíre laughing their asses off at whatís going on inside the liberal bubble. Itís heartbreaking. Iím going to place a huge bet on Trump on one of the prediction sites. Thousands of dollars. That way if he wins, and he probably will, Iíll get a huge sum of money that will prevent me from literally going suicidal. If he loses, Iíll be so happy I wonít care that I lost 5K or so. Itís the only why I can survive the upcoming trainwreck that is a November.
Interesting. Just be careful about extrapolating your experiences to the whole. I'm likely guilty of that as well. But here's my anecdotal info from my family and friend contacts in rural Ohio: while there's still some relatives and friends who say they support Trump, most won't say they support him.

They talk about things like "character", "faith", "respect" without explicitly saying anything about the president. This is a bad sign for Trump. There's going to be a lot of people who vote for someone who's not the incumbent president, even if they don't tell anyone. And I know two relatives who've told me they changed their registration from R to D (both women over 50). That is not good for Republicans.

Now maybe Ohio is different because the governor is Republican and he's handled the pandemic response well enough that they know how incompetent the federal response is. I don't know.

I also know several former Trump supporters in SoCal who say they're fed up with him because of his pandemic failures. They know people who got sick and how serious it is. But California is very different from the rest of the union.
  #85  
Old 05-18-2020, 01:52 PM
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Here's U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio on how Biden can win the state and, very likely, the Presidency: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sherro...n-can-win-ohio
  #86  
Old 05-18-2020, 02:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Elendil's Heir View Post
Here's U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio on how Biden can win the state and, very likely, the Presidency: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sherro...n-can-win-ohio
Thanks to the fact that articles are no longer written in the inverted pyramid style (making the main point up-front), you have to plow through a lot of blather to get to this point, which I think is correct:
Quote:
...So can Biden be a 40 percenter in those parts of Ohio? Brown says he can be: ďBiden has a sort of an emotional and reputational connection with workers. And heíd talk about it every single dayóabout the moderate-wage, low-wage workers, union or not. Most of them are women. Many of them are people of color. A lot of them are white men, too. And a lot of them are unionized. And those are the people that have, again, been forgotten during this pandemic.Ē

He hopes one thing that people learn during this pandemic is that ďgovernment is really, really important in their lives. The private sector isn't going to cure them. The private sector isn't gonna staff the hospitals, the private sector isn't going to pay out unemployment benefits and get help for people. The private sector can't entirely fund food banks. I mean, there are many, many generous people in this society that are doing a lot of important things, but the role of government is increasingly important.Ē

Thatís apparent to him and to me. But it needs to be apparent to enough voters in November. And not just at the presidential level, because as everyone knows, even if Biden wins, itís worth little unless the Democrats can retake the Senate.
....
The private sector can't do it all! People need government to work for them. This is what Biden and the Dems have to emphasize. Not what an SOB trump is--that didn't work for Hillary and it won't work this time. Everyone (even the Republicans) know he's an SOB. Change the subject already! This crisis has shown how important a responsible, organized, unified, competent federal government is.

I bolded THE most important thing: "...as everyone knows, even if Biden wins, itís worth little unless the Democrats can retake the Senate." Otherwise it's four more years of deadlock.
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